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Every time I have to comment on or write about
the offensive of the Russian troops, I mention
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the resource factor, or rather its lack for
the Russians to attack.
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But, in doing so, many people have a dissonant
question - how is there no resource, they
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are offensive?
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Well, let's figure out what the resource is
and whether the occupiers have it or not.
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On February 24, 2022 Putin's occupation army
carried out a full-scale invasion of Ukraine
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with 110-115 Battalion tactical groups, which
amounted to 180,000 personnel.
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These units were fully manned.
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Most of the equipment at the time was either
new or upgraded!
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At the same time they received round-the-clock
support of attack aviation, the attack of
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the invaders was daily accompanied by numerous
missile strikes into the interior of Ukraine.
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And on a number of fronts they even made daring
but suicidal airborne force landings deep
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inside the Ukrainian rear.
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Also, they were able to provide artillery
support around the clock using the "rampart
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of fire" tactic, at times increasing the daily
fire rate to 80,000 rounds, without even thinking
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that they might not have enough ammunition
or run out at all, because the Ukrainians
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would soon be defeated.
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Actually, this is the resource they had as
of 2022.
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And with such a resource, full support from
the air, land capacity and endless rocket
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terror of the rear Ukraine, they intended
to capture Ukraine in 3 days, then in 3 weeks,
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in 3 months...
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And now Russian propagandists are already
preparing their viewers for missile strikes
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on Moscow and all of Russia.
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2023.
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Virtually all units of Russian troops have
a problem with manning, both personnel and
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especially equipment.
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The southern grouping is mainly concentrated
in the Zaporizhzhya region.
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It is more than 30 Battalion tactical groups.
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The manning of the units is less than 70%.
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And equipment kitting is even worse - up to
50% of the required.
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In Luhansk region, the number of personnel
manning the subunits outside the line of contact
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is 80-90%.
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The completeness of equipment is up to 60%
and artillery up to 70%.
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Donetsk region: the number of personnel manning
the units outside the line of contact is 90%,
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equipment - 60%, artillery - 90%, and at the
same time they have the greatest shortage
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of shells.
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Thus, the resource currently available to
the occupiers does not allow them to carry
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out a wide-scale attack on the entire front.
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They can only concentrate on narrow directions
and specific locations.
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I anticipate a comment - "but still, they
can attack and they are attacking!"
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If for you the capture of Chernihiv or Kharkiv
region is comparable to the ninth month of
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convulsions at Bakhmut or Avdiivka, then this
video is still not for you.
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And now the most important thing.
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When your resource is limited, but you activate
combat operations, you deplete it so much
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that you will not be able to hold even defenses,
let alone offensives, in the long run.
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With such attacks, they are finally demilitarizing
themselves.
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That is why I am highly skeptical about the
potential of the occupiers and the effect
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of their "onslaught".
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The march to the border of the Donetsk region
by spring, the rush to Zaporizhzhia, crawling
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through the swamp on the Lyman?
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Yes, there will be reflexions, but exactly
reflexions.
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Which will end with another gesture of goodwill.
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