Original subtitles

On the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there is no less talk

about the possibility of a second offensive, Russia's preparations for it, and a new wave

of mobilization. Information is circulating both from experts and from Western leaders.

But, of course, the main pool of news is occupied by new deliveries of promised weapons.

Mostly we are talking about tanks, very vainly omitting the artillery announced in the latest

Western aid packages. It is their presence that indicates that the West, together with Ukraine,

is preparing both for defense, which requires artillery, and for a breakthrough,

which will be greatly facilitated by tanks.

Along with various equipment, longer-range

missiles are also expected, they contribute to the further destruction of logistic chains

of the enemy of Ukraine, which will help minimize the ability of Russia to attack.

As for the Russian side, they are now seeing a decrease in the use of artillery shells.

Many analysts attribute this to the Kremlin's desire to prepare for an offensive and,

consequently, to stockpile some "reserves," which have become

harder to accumulate due to the weakness of its own production facilities. It is

predicted that the offensive may stall because of the shell famine.

The Ukrainians have already created a significant shortage of Russian equipment, and the Kremlin,

in the old fashioned way, pelted the front line with infantry. The capture of Soledar, which

the AFU left to save the lives of its defenders, resulted in a "dizzying success" for the Russians.

But the tactical retreat of the AFU is related to Kyiv's desire to save as many fighters as

possible and create a bridgehead for a better defense and subsequent counteroffensive. While

Moscow's strategy is to wait for the exhaustion of the enemy to stupidly fill them with "cannon

fodder," which they have been demonstrating for more than seven months of fighting for Bakhmut.

Obviously, Putin is in for another fiasco. Also the unpreparedness of the Russian

army for a productive offensive is confirmed by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War.

In my opinion, the information spreading now about the global offensive of the occupation army in the

next few days and also publication of the report in the Swiss newspaper NZZ about the offer of CIA

head Burns of 20% of territory in exchange for peace are the elements of information warfare.

Supplies of modern, high-precision weapons will allow Ukraine to go from

defense to counteroffensive. And Putin will have to choke on his own ambitions,

and his "big" offensive will again, as it was a year ago,

stall after finally exhausting the offensive potential of the Russian Federation.

I understand that if the Russian military and political leadership decides to launch

an offensive in the near future, the Wagner group, as well as the first and second army

corps of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk republics, will simply disappear from the

arena of combat operations. The whole reason is that it is them who will go in the first wave.

That is, as expected, the "great" and "unparalleled in the world" offensive

of the Russian troops will be a meat grinder and the first batch will be minced with the

aforementioned trash. Then the more valuable and more or less manned paratroopers will follow.

In any case, the result will be the same...