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While I was working on last week's video and speculating about the 200,000-strong

Russian army attack, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov announced a new, staggering figure.

According to him, the Kremlin has mobilized 500,000 soldiers. "Officially 300,000

is stated, but when we see troops on the borders, according to our estimates,

it's much more," is his direct quote. Theoretically, they could repeat another

massive invasion on February 24, just on the anniversary of the first shameful failure.

In addition to him, other sources are also voicing information that Russia

has now accumulated a gigantic resource of forces, for a decisive offensive.

The numbers are completely different. Somebody claims the strike potential of 200

thousand, somebody says about 500 thousand, there are even versions about millions...

I understand what this information noise is for, to accelerate the transfer of more

powerful weapons and to move to a new stage of discussion. The seed is already being sown

for discussions that Ukraine needs nuclear capability to defend itself against Russia.

Demand more to increase your chances of getting what you need right now, like long-range aircraft

and missiles. But let us again discuss the possibility of a new half-million-strong attack.

Let me remind you that as of February 24, 2022, there were about 180,000 troops of the Russian

armed forces involved in the invasion of Ukraine. This mass Russia has been moving

cumbersomely and absolutely without concealment to the borders with Ukraine since October 2021.

A quite pertinent question arises. Is it possible to deploy 200,000,

500,000 or a million units of potential mincemeat and related

equipment completely unobtrusively near the borders with Ukraine? No.

Moreover, the mobilization potential of russia is not capable of accumulating

such a number of personnel in an extremely short period of time.

Currently, the average monthly loss compensation of the Russians has reached the level of 50

thousand. At the same time, the mobilization capacity does not exceed 100

thousand a month. That is, to accumulate a potential resource of 200 thousand,

a period of 4 months is required, 500 thousand - 10 months. And this is ideal.

In turn, the current rate of mobilization in Russia is much lower than the bar of 100

thousand, and the highest rates were in October 2022. That is, mobilization continues,

but not so actively and intensively that it exceeds the need of 50,000 a month.

Of course, Russia is now preparing for offensive actions.

It always prepares for them. Especially since their fanatical desire to advance

on Vuhledar hints at a broad sweep in the Donbass bridgehead.

This plan seems somewhat schizophrenic, because without sufficient equipment, artillery,

ammunition supply and artillery support, to undertake such an offensive is suicidal.

But only history will tell us whether the "Lord of the Kremlin" is mentally healthy.

And it is this activity that will be the biggest offensive of Russia. Which, in turn, does not have

the resource that many are talking about, but has all the chances to choke at its very beginning.

Especially if the initiative is intercepted by the AFU at

a number of locations and dramatically disrupts the plans of the Russian troops.

And somewhere in "Arizona" they are loading crates with Ground-Launched

Small Diameter Bomb, a weapon that will greatly change the course of the war.