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So where is the AFU counteroffensive?

It is a strange question, which I periodically see in the comments.

On the one hand there is nothing surprising in this, because,

I do not hide it, I predicted the beginning of another active phase at the end of 2022.

On the other hand, if the active phase has not begun, then there must be certain objective

reasons, right? After all, the war zone is a huge area with a constantly changing operational

situation, which is influenced by many factors, many of which many people are not even aware of.

But now I want to turn my attention to a very different factor,

one that changes steadily as events in the war zone unfold.

I think that many people have heard the version that the AFU is expecting the

formation of units from fully Western equipment and will use them to launch a counteroffensive.

Perhaps this version has the right to life, but the formation of such units may take up to two

months, and possibly three. It is difficult to say for sure. But what can be said with certainty is

that the intensity of the use of artillery by Russian forces continues to decrease.

Thus, by the end of January 2023 the average number of shots per day at the

Russian artillery is 15 thousand. Yes, there are regular daily spikes of up to 20-25 thousand,

but then there is a sharp failure, sometimes up to 10 thousand a day, and this is despite the

fact that from November to December 20 thousand shots a day were the norm for Russian troops.

Let me remind you that in March-April 2022 the occupants had a standard daily

rate of artillery fire of 70-80 thousand rounds a day. That is,

we are seeing a reduction in the possibilities of fire action.

Russian troops can concentrate intensive artillery fire on limited areas and limited periods of time.

For example, near Bakhmut or Avdeevka. In the area of Vugledar, due to the lack of artillery

and shells in proportionate numbers, the occupiers again failed the offensive.

That is, we can say that the enemy's artillery potential over the past 2 months has decreased

by a quarter. So, in the next 2 months it has all chances to be reduced to 10

thousand rounds per day? It is quite possible and this is very important.

The fact is that now, for example, on the Zaporizhzhya direction the enemy forces are

forced to hold the front of 100 km. They do not have the necessary amount of artillery

to completely cover such a front, as well as a proportional amount of shells for active defense.

They cannot close all areas with artillery, and those in a limited range do not have

the possibility of long-term fire in the "rampart of fire" format.

Or at least its semblance to carry out defensive actions, let alone an offensive.

Thus, the lower the potential of Russian artillery, the more successful the

counterattack by the AFU and the fewer losses, both in personnel and equipment.

Assault battalion tactical groups breaking through enemy defense lines with western

equipment that cannot effectively defend... Well, yes this option is possible, as one of many ...

The AFU counteroffensive continues every day, every hour.

And its essence is the exhaustion of the enemy, which is happening right now.

But when the active phase begins, only the AFU General Staff knows.