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It's difficult in Vuhledar. But
it has never been easy there,
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just like in any other area along the line of
contact. And in the context of describing the
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current situation, it is worth remembering
something that many people have forgotten,
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and therefore are spreading mass panic in the
networks, when one should keep their composure.
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In the first days of November 2022, Russian
troops, having assembled five more or less
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manned Battalion tactical groups, advanced to
storm Vuhledar, which they hastened to call
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a kind of epic battle. But the epic battle was
limited to the neighboring village of Pavlivka.
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Having sent the five hard-assembled
Battalion tactical group into the meat
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grinder and having cut their combat
efficiency in half or even more,
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the occupiers managed to reach the outskirts of
Pavlivka, and on November 11 and then on November
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20 managed to announce twice that the village was
completely under the control of Russian forces.
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But where there are two
times, there are three times?
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And now, from December 2 to 3, the
occupants' artillery began shelling Pavlivka.
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Strange, why shell a village that
is under your control? And twice.
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Anyway, this is a short excursion into the not too
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distant past to understand what
is now happening near Vuhledar.
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It took the enemy almost 2 months to recover
their unit losses and they again threw these same
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groups at Vuhledar, which they critically need to
implement Logistical Support from east to south.
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But this time the occupiers try to
bypass also from the west direction,
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as well as the current composition is
different from last year’s lemmings
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throw. The infantry component prevails, the
equipment is in short supply. But there is
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artillery and this is the composition
they will try to capture Vuhledar.
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In this context, the decisive factor could be:
First, the availability of sufficient artillery
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ammunition for the enemy forces
to support the assault action.
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But this raises the question
of whether they were able to
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accumulate this ammunition and ensure the
process of its long-term and timely supply.
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Given the general situation of the enemy with
artillery and ammunition, there are doubts.
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Second, the availability of sufficient
artillery and ammunition from the AFU.
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Since this factor decides not just a lot, but
everything in Vuhledar location, especially taking
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into account the dominant heights and the fact
that they are controlled by Ukrainian artillery.
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It won't be easy, but Ugledar will grind
the "sailors" again, believe in the APU!
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During all this fuss with tanks, the news that the
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allies are going to supply 18 more
HIMARS to Ukraine went unnoticed.
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Let me remind you that now the AFU has
25 units of this equipment. And they
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have radically changed the rules
of the game on the battlefield.
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For several months already the Ukrainians in
a day translate into the right aggregate state
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about two Battalion tactical
group of occupation forces.
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Plus twice as many organisms become sanitary
losses. That is, the math is like this now:
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- In a day the occupiers plant 2
to 3 Battalion tactical group in
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Ukraine (according to different sources).
- Irretrievable losses during the same
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day are 2 Battalion tactical groups + sanitary
losses of another 3-4 Battalion tactical groups.
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We observe a stable negative growth of
the enemy's numbers on Ukrainian soil.
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And the equipment for effective growth of
this figure keeps arriving and arriving.
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The loser is helped only by the losers, the
winner is helped by everyone. Think about it.
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