Original subtitles

yo what's going on everyone i hope

you're doing really well

so i'm gonna make this video on the

difference between

probabilities and certainty

so what i mean by that is

understanding you know what price is

actually doing and

sort of understanding that is you know

things are happening for a reason

and it's not just you know

random sort of price movements and

you know random sort of flag patterns

that there's there's a deeper sort of

concept to it

and you know we we know this

um but i'm gonna do this video you know

showcasing a really

very clear example of the difference

between

retail you know different communities

where they're looking at you know

certain trades and you know us being

you know traces of smart money

understanding what price is doing and

why it's doing it

so i'm on euro usd

and i just want to look at this um

sort of a bit of price in here okay so

if we look at this move here what we can

see is price

impulsively you know that we can agree

this is an impulsive leg down

a few weeks here after this impulse

but all of these candles apart from

these two you know they're with

they're putting in lower lows we have a

nice

impulsive candle here and what we can

see with this

move here is you know retail would be

looking at that

as you know a few wicks that you could

account for

or not but you know it's clearly a bare

flag

you know with one

two and

touches at the bottom we can identify

that as

a clear bear flag so that that would be

the pole

and that will be the flag and

other communities trading patterns or

whatever it may be

you know they're looking to get involved

somewhere up here you know nice bearish

retrace

and stop loss would go you know 15

maybe even 20 pips let's go let's go 18

pips

which is you know above that um flag

pattern above the high

and you can see what happens the price

does go down

and the reason the stop-loss would need

to be

you know 15-20 pips is because they're

not really

it's not a real understanding of price

and what is actually doing

they can't have the precision of you

know say a

pip stop loss like we can because

you know it doesn't allow you to do that

okay so price does come down

but then you know we put in this low

with a wick within range inside the wick

then we push

up this is what we would be as smart

money traders sort of anticipating or

even expecting because we

we know that this up here is an area

a very clear supply zone where price is

going to gravitate towards

and you know take people out

who are looking at this as a bear flag

because this

hasn't been printed just out of luck you

know this entices people in

they see an impulse down bear flag

pushes down but then look

comes back up it taps into smart money

you know clear supply zone and this

there's no there's no saying that

this isn't going to go short it's

clearly you know going to go short

because

we're clearly bearish you know all the

way from back up here

you know if you go through this bit of

price action even

up until to today's current date

look how price is respecting these areas

okay so you know we have this area here

broke structure we didn't come back into

it

but then we have another one here break

of structure mitigation

broker structure and this this was the

move that we sort of

um i forecasted and you know we took

took advantage of this

mitigation you know another breaker

structure we have another area here

inside bar last up close candle

mitigation

and what we can also look from with this

move here

is i know i'm quite zoomed out but we

have the last up close candle

we came in to wick it but then we came

in

to mitigate fully to the 50 okay

then we went short again and we have the

exact same thing here we didn't come

into the 50

but we still look for entries within

this and if you didn't

um if you didn't get involved with an

entry in here

then what do we have next we have

another push-up breaker structure here

and we have the last up close candle

um refined to this candle here

and you know we have entries within that

and then even more entries here

so you know the different

this is literally the difference between

probabilities

you know patterns which which are going

to work from time to time because

that's the whole point of it it entices

people into the market they see it play

out once or twice and

they think oh that must work when really

we know it doesn't

not not to its fullest potential of you

know

how we are trading where you know we're

looking for

where does price need to go before

a clear move can happen so where where

those prices need to go

to get fuel grab liquidity from these

retail traders trading these flag

patterns

and you know this is when this is why we

can be so precise with you know one pip

or two pip stop loss

because we know what price is doing and

we can utilize the lower time frames to

even refine it even more this is why we

can get in entries like this

you know as tight as that which which

makes complete sense

as opposed to this you know with 20-pip

stop-loss and just trading our pure

profit

probabilities and you know understand

that there's more to it so

i thought i'd just do that video um

showing you saw the difference between

probabilities and

certainty and that being said it's not

always going to be certain

as we already know it we still do take

losses

but you know when we're getting in

trading trades you know one to

twenty five one to fifty small losses

like

one percent it doesn't do any damage at

all

um because we know the true potential

that we have

even all these trades i'm looking at

here there's loads of opportunity

day in day out it's just about seeing

where price is likely to go to the why

and you know getting involved