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Is the counteroffensive delayed or will there be no counteroffensive at all?

Let's look into it.

After I noted in past videos that the AFU has the ability to launch an active counteroffensive

at at least 3 bridgeheads, a logical question began to arise: "Why do they delay?"

After the phenomenal liberation of Kharkiv and the expulsion of the occupants from the

right-bank Kherson region, people wanted more action, but there was none.

First of all, I will note that the counteroffensive did not stop for a day, because it is not

only the aforementioned action, but also the phases of preparation, the formation of conditions.

Destruction of ammunition and fuel and lubricants depots, destruction of equipment and repair

bases, command and control centers, headquarters, air defense bases, Battalion tactical group

blown up in Makiivka - all this is a counterattack that does not stop for a day.

And when all the conditions are created, we will be able to observe with you the active

phase - the very action.

And up to this phase, taking into account various factors, usually several months have

passed since the previous breakthrough.

The current situation is fully consistent with this phase - preparation.

In any case, it is better for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to know

in which direction and when exactly to move from the phase of creating conditions, to

the active phase.

But there is one very interesting point about our realities.

The fact is that last year I said that at least one bridgehead by the end of 2022 could

see a significant advance by the AFU.

But it would seem that under sufficiently formed conditions it did not happen.

Yes, it is possible to allow for the factor of lack of prolonged severe frosts.

It does play a role in that area.

But... looking through the last packages of military aid from international partners,

you know what I see?

No, I don't just see lists of equipment, weapons, ammunition, and other things.

I see a complete full complement of assault battalion-tactical group.

And not one.

So, have patience and watch.

And meanwhile the occupiers have reflexions in Crimea...

Or convulsions.

First of all, there is an accumulation of military equipment, especially near the administrative

border with mainland Ukraine, as well as the removal from storage of a large amount of

old Soviet equipment.

In total, up to 20 Battalion tactical groups are now concentrated in the Medvedivka-Dzhankoy-Armiansk

triangle.

But, this mass looks more like an accumulation of resources for defense than a capacity to

support the southern grouping as part of some kind of offensive.

In other words, all this reflexion is caused by the occupiers' preparations for the defense

of Crimea, not for a large-scale breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia.

On the other hand, the territory of Crimea continues to be used as a transit logistical

hub for sending logistical support to the southern bridgehead, but with the intensification

of hostilities, it is unlikely that the logistical artery through the Crimean bridge will be

able to fully support the occupants in the South.

It is obvious that the enemy does not have enough forces and means to conduct active

combat operations, with an offensive along the broad southern front, and those that are

concentrated have a depletion period of up to 2 weeks, after which...

After which the gates to the Crimea will be opened in through mode.