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I really like the optimism of some of the media regarding the plans to liberate Crimea.
But what seems logical to journalists, namely the discussion of these plans now, is not really so.
Any topic concerning the liberation of Crimea that
might be discussed now has no clear specifics at the moment.
A full-fledged plan for the liberation of the temporarily occupied territory of the
peninsula of Crimea will be discussed when the Armed Forces stand on the administrative
border with the peninsula and has an idea of its own and the enemy's resources.
That is, after the liberation of the South.
And here's why.
The liberation of the South: the Zaporizhzhia region,
the left-bank Kherson region and even the southern part of the Donetsk region,
is a very serious task that will require significant resources.
No one can say with certainty what the potential of the AFU will be at the end of this operation.
Similarly, no one can now say how this liberation will take place, in stages or in waves?
Will there still be locations in the South that, even after reaching the
administrative border of Crimea, will not be able to be liberated immediately.
Perhaps the liberation of these areas will be put on hold and postponed "for later.
But perhaps the most important question is what potential Russian troops will have left
at the moment when the Ukrainian armed forces reach the administrative border of Crimea.
And where will the retreating enemy resource be concentrated? Whether it is distributed in the
rush of flight between the Crimea and the eastern regions, or mostly concentrated on the peninsula.
In fact, at the time of the release of the APU to the Crimea,
there may be so many variables affecting the situation tactically
and even strategically that planning as of today, just loses its meaning.
When it comes to the liberation of Crimea,
the guarantees of support from international partners are of primary importance.
The partners recognize the full right to return this territory to Ukraine,
which could not be otherwise. And the importance of this fact says also that
the process of return will be provided by the technical component in full measure.
And therefore, for the Crimea it is too early to talk, but at least 3 bridgeheads can be
considered with a very interesting perspective and on each of them it is possible to implement
certain scenarios for the liberation. You should agree that there is enough to do.
The Ukrainian winter could be fatal for the Russian
army - with such an interesting headline was published in The Wall Street Journal.
For both armies, winter weather affects everything from maneuverability to battery charge.
But the cold and damp can have a crushing effect on soldiers'
morale and fighting ability, while creating potential health problems.
The U.S. and allies have sent hundreds of thousands of winter clothing to Ukrainian
fighters and now the AFU has a better chance on the battlefield than the enemy,
as they are experiencing problems with their equipment due to hasty mobilization.
According to the AFU General Staff, the occupants have sent reinforcements to the Kherson region,
but the detachment sent has only small arms, while only individuals have body armor,
nno military equipment to the detachment is attached.
It seems that the occupiers are not taking the threat of a Ukrainian winter seriously,
and are instead relying on their own delusions of grandeur. But as history has shown,
Mother Nature does not discriminate, and even the "mighty Russian army" is not immune to her wrath.
So let's wait and see who will be laughing when the AFU is storming
the beaches of Crimea, while the occupiers are shivering in their ill-equipped boots.
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