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I really like the optimism of some of the
media regarding the plans to liberate Crimea.
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But what seems logical to journalists, namely the
discussion of these plans now, is not really so.
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Any topic concerning the liberation of Crimea that
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might be discussed now has no
clear specifics at the moment.
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A full-fledged plan for the liberation of
the temporarily occupied territory of the
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peninsula of Crimea will be discussed when
the Armed Forces stand on the administrative
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border with the peninsula and has an idea
of its own and the enemy's resources.
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That is, after the liberation of the South.
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And here's why.
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The liberation of the South:
the Zaporizhzhia region,
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the left-bank Kherson region and even
the southern part of the Donetsk region,
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is a very serious task that will
require significant resources.
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No one can say with certainty what the potential
of the AFU will be at the end of this operation.
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Similarly, no one can now say how this liberation
will take place, in stages or in waves?
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Will there still be locations in the
South that, even after reaching the
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administrative border of Crimea, will
not be able to be liberated immediately.
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Perhaps the liberation of these areas will
be put on hold and postponed "for later.
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But perhaps the most important question is
what potential Russian troops will have left
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at the moment when the Ukrainian armed forces
reach the administrative border of Crimea.
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And where will the retreating enemy resource be
concentrated? Whether it is distributed in the
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rush of flight between the Crimea and the eastern
regions, or mostly concentrated on the peninsula.
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In fact, at the time of the
release of the APU to the Crimea,
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there may be so many variables
affecting the situation tactically
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and even strategically that planning
as of today, just loses its meaning.
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When it comes to the liberation of Crimea,
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the guarantees of support from international
partners are of primary importance.
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The partners recognize the full right
to return this territory to Ukraine,
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which could not be otherwise. And the
importance of this fact says also that
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the process of return will be provided by
the technical component in full measure.
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And therefore, for the Crimea it is too early
to talk, but at least 3 bridgeheads can be
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considered with a very interesting perspective
and on each of them it is possible to implement
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certain scenarios for the liberation. You
should agree that there is enough to do.
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The Ukrainian winter could
be fatal for the Russian
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army - with such an interesting headline
was published in The Wall Street Journal.
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For both armies, winter weather affects
everything from maneuverability to battery charge.
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But the cold and damp can have
a crushing effect on soldiers'
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morale and fighting ability, while
creating potential health problems.
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The U.S. and allies have sent hundreds of
thousands of winter clothing to Ukrainian
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fighters and now the AFU has a better
chance on the battlefield than the enemy,
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as they are experiencing problems with
their equipment due to hasty mobilization.
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According to the AFU General Staff, the occupants
have sent reinforcements to the Kherson region,
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but the detachment sent has only small arms,
while only individuals have body armor,
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nno military equipment to
the detachment is attached.
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It seems that the occupiers are not taking
the threat of a Ukrainian winter seriously,
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and are instead relying on their own delusions
of grandeur. But as history has shown,
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Mother Nature does not discriminate, and even the
"mighty Russian army" is not immune to her wrath.
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So let's wait and see who will be
laughing when the AFU is storming
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the beaches of Crimea, while the occupiers
are shivering in their ill-equipped boots.
5776
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