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More than once I have seen headlines such
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as "Russians are advancing
in Zaporizhzhya direction".
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First, as you can see they "attack" on the field,
in droves. Almost without equipment. The Russians
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do not have enough of them everywhere. Without
clearing the minefields... Why do they need it
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now? In order to distract and simulate "more
activity", while getting a lot of damage. The
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figures of the occupants eliminated daily
are almost never below the 700 mark now.
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In the south, enemy forces can only rely on
the logistics of the Crimean bridge. It is
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very difficult to transport systematically
from Russia by rail through Melitopol,
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the AFU has fire control in this direction.
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And the offensive is a multiple increase
in fuel and ammunition consumption,
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not counting the repair logistics. At the same
time, the Russian invaders have even run out
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of 122 caliber howitzers. The field artillery
everywhere consists of heavy howitzers. Remember
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in the last video I said 152 mm howitzer M1943
of Stalin's times? Well, it's heavy scrap metal,
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short-range. And the shells are very heavy, you
need more soldiers than usual to maintain the gun.
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In the case of an offensive on Zaporizhzhya, the
invaders will physically have a total shortage of
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everything very soon. Not only for the offensive,
but also for defense. They can't take that risk.
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The Zaporizhzhya circus is a
temporary attack, a distraction.
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The main forces of the occupiers
will focus on the Donbass.
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So, Let's go over Leopard II.
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Just because the Ukrainians didn't get it
yesterday doesn't mean they won't get it
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tomorrow. Figuratively, of course. But a
few fundamental points must be understood.
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First, Ukraine's partners have an understanding
of the need to provide Ukraine with tanks.
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That is, if earlier the question was
only about Soviet models of tanks,
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then now the question of provision of Western
models of tank armament is being discussed.
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Both previous generations and modern ones.
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Secondly, a mission to train Ukrainian
Leopard II crews has started.
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The process of training and maintenance of Leopard
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II tanks is not a task of a day or a
week, but at least a month. In turn,
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during this month or more a decision can be made
to transfer this type of armament to Ukraine.
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Thirdly, the absence of Western tank
armament will have an impact on the
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counter-offensive capabilities of
the AFU, but it is situational.
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Ukraine is a large country, with
diverse geography, landscapes,
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terrain, as well as situationality
in the area of combat operations.
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The most striking example is the
liberation of the Kharkiv region,
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which was carried out by the AFU without
shock tank fists, while the enemy in this
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location had the largest armored group in
the entire combat zone. The result is known
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to all - some of this enemy equipment went
to the Ukrainian armed forces as trophies.
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Yes, there are locations where
they cannot do without tanks.
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They should play the role of the main or auxiliary
breakthrough, offensive element. But there are
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locations where the role of tank fists is
not even second-planned, but third-planned.
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And as long as Berlin continues to nurture
the solution, the process can go on.
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But this does not exclude the fact
that modern tanks will be needed by
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the AFU to fully liberate the territory of
Ukraine according to the borders of 1991.
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The question is different. This historic event
will happen with or without Leopard II tanks,
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but it will be impossible to restore
the reputation of some characters.
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