Original subtitles

I have good news and bad news.

In the grouping of Russian troops stationed in Belarus, movement has begun.

But not the movement that panic-stricken people have been expecting for half a year - preparation

for the throw to Kiev version 2.0, but withdrawal of the Russians and replacement with less

prepared, raw biomaterial.

Thus, the process of rotating units of partially mobilized units, which were compactly stationed

at five training ranges in Belarus, where they were trained for fresh cannon fodder,

has begun.

The Belarus territory will host a less trained and prepared contingent than the one that

has already undergone training.

Furthermore, the equipment and number of the personnel do not indicate that it will become

the backbone of a strike force.

The formation of the strike force itself, given the current composition of Russian forces

in Belarus, will require 3 to 4 months of stable supply of forces and means to Belarus.

The fact of rotation only confirms that formation of shock grouping is not planned in the nearest

future.

The good news is that the low level of invasion threat from Belarus' territory remains unchanged,

provided that this threat is maintained.

Now let's turn to the negative side of this process, which is the withdrawal of already

trained fighters to the combat zone in Ukraine.

Most likely, these units will be sent to the Luhansk bridgehead to reinforce the group

deployed near Svatove.

On the other hand, after the chain of events at Bakhmut and the maturing resource hunger,

I do not rule out that some of these freshly trained occupants may end up there as well.

Another positive moment, the withdrawal from the territory of Belarus, as well as the manning

of the units will not take place quickly and this process will take part of February, and

during the second half of January, there is little that can happen ... Reinforcements

will not have time to arrive or there will be nobody to go to.

This note was written by me a few days ago.

Now, as expected, they have indeed begun to drive them into Luhansk direction.

But there is a nuance.

They are now being driven directly from Belarus, transiting through Russia, into the war zone.

That is, they do not even leave them to be completed with equipment.

And I will remind you that in Belarus these units were catastrophically understaffed.

Which indicated that there was no formation of a strike force on their basis.

Which in turn minimized the threat of "invasion version 2.0" from their territory by Russian

troops.

It is difficult to say whether these units can be staffed directly in the combat zone,

but rather not, rather than - yes.

Thus, the transferred units will constitute...

marching battalions?

So the months of training at the Belarussian firing ranges were just to prepare the meat

for roasting?

Well folks, let me tell you, watching the events in Belarus, I imagined that of these

15 Battalion tactical group will try to make something more or less combat-capable and

staffed.

While they were dragging their feet and sending all the rest to the slaughter.

But no, they're still just shipping em off to be cannon fodder.

And the best part?

These guys dutifully line up to sign their own death warrants.