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The liberation of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine in 2023...

You may perceive my view as too skeptical and pessimistic, but I think it has more optimism

than inappropriate hat-sharing. I could be wrong, of course, but...

Currently, I often hear about the liberation of Ukraine by summer 2023, by the end of 2023 and

some other variations. But at the same time, I have never heard on what exactly, based on

the information and data allowed for discussion in open sources, these assumptions are based?

Yes, Russian troops are suffering significant losses, exhausting resources, depleting and

demilitarizing by the day, but there are a number of factors that significantly affect the scenarios

for the liberation of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, depending on the location.

Let's start small. At present, how many temporarily occupied locations are there

in the combat zone? My regular viewers would answer - 5 locations: Left-bank Herson region,

part of Zaporizhia region, Luhansk region, Donetsk region, and Crimea. But this is simplified.

In the current war zone on the territory of Ukraine there are not five but seven temporarily

occupied locations. We must not forget that the Donetsk and Luhansk regions "were occupied twice".

What has been occupied since 2014 and those territories that were

seized during the full-scale invasion in 2022.

These are the territories that were occupied in 2022 and are the 2 additional locations. This

is a more accurate and realistic representation of the combat map than the previous description,

which indicates only five temporarily occupied locations. I'll explain later why that is.

And now on counter offensives. How long on average does it take the AFU

to prepare a counterattack at a particular bridgehead?

As 2022 showed, from 3 to 5 months. For example, preparations for the liberation

of the right-bank Kherson region began in May and Kharkiv region in June.

Yes, now the resources of the Russian troops are being depleted, and we can

predict that the average period of preparation of conditions for a counterattack could be 3 months.

Let's assume that this is the case and consider each location individually,

taking into account today's conditions.

The most comfortable conditions for a counterattack now are in the part of

the Luhansk region that was occupied in 2022. But, there are a number of

factors that could significantly stimulate this process, such as weather conditions.

But this will change literally in the next few days.

On Zaporizhzhya location conditions are still forming and the final process of their maturation

is expected in the first quarter of 2023. Left-bank Kherson region depends on Zaporizhzhya

location. Therefore, the Southern bridgehead as a whole can be liberated before the summer of 2023.

That is, the territories of Ukraine captured in 2022 by the occupants will be fully liberated

at the turn of spring-summer 2023. And then it will reach the borders of the territories

occupied since 2014. And there the more serious problem for the armed forces of Ukraine begins.

These are the defense lines that have been formed since 2014.

It is more effective logistics, supply and management of Russian troops units.

These are many aspects that will have to be taken into account in a counterattack

in these areas, regardless of the degree of depletion of the Russian occupier's army.

Thus, the average 3-4 months for creating the conditions for counter-offensive in these

locations, even if they are appropriate, may extend beyond 2023 and will depend on

various factors, including the delivery of more powerful weapons from partners.

However, the important point is that in any case,

all of these territories will be returned and the enemies will be defeated !