All language subtitles for 026-012qwi9q1wuer09q

The Main Directorate of Intelligence is behind
many high-profile special operations to eliminate

occupiers in Ukraine and military facilities in
Russia. Today I will share the main theses from

an interview with the head of this very service
Kirill Budanov, which confirm my observations.

With its flurry of military activity in Belarus,

Russia is trying to persuade Ukraine to withdraw
its soldiers from the war zone in the southeast.

These are not routine maneuvers. These are
all elements of a disinformation campaign.

The Russian army is trying to raise
alarm in the Ukrainian army by loading

soldiers onto trains in Belarus that
are headed toward the Ukrainian border.

The Soviet Union used similar
tactics during World War II,

sending soldiers on pointless train
rides, simulating offensives and retreats.

In Belarus, one of the trains loaded with
Russian soldiers recently stopped for half

a day near the Ukrainian border and then
returned with all the soldiers "on board."

This is a merry-go-round, and
it was not an isolated incident.

Although the threat of a new Russian offensive
from the territory of Belarus is not imminent,

it still cannot be dismissed. None of the
Russian troops on the territory of Belarus

are lined up in offensive formations.
The training camps are filled with new

mobilized men who are sent to fight in
the Donbass at the end of the exercises.

There are not enough armored vehicles at
the training grounds to plan an attack.

Similarly, the shelling of Sumy
and Kharkov from Russian territory,

killing and wounding dozens of people, is not
a precursor to an imminent repeat offensive.

Russian units are not assembled for an
attack and cannot be formed in one day.

The military strategy in the Donbass depends
entirely on the political ambitions of Prigozhin,

Putin's cook who now heads the Wagner group.

Prigozhin has launched a march on Bakhmut to
oust generals in the regular Russian army.

At the moment, the Wagner is coordinating with
the army, but is the main strike force in Bakhmut.

The fierce assault on Bakhmut is a matter of
ideology and media. This is the reason why

the Wagner units are so frantically trying to take
the city. They need to show that they are a force,

that they can do what the Russian army cannot. The
Ukrainian side clearly sees and understands this.

Capturing Bakhmut is not strategic, but it
will improve Russia's position in the east

by opening roads to other cities in
the Donbass under Ukrainian control.

The alliance between Prigozhin and the Russian
commander-in-chief led to the transfer of

heavy weapons into the hands of convict units,
increasing the organization's role in the war.

The Russian war against Ukraine is now being
waged in two separate arenas: ground battles

in the south and east, and the confrontation
between Ukrainian air defenses and Russian

cruise missiles and drones aimed at civilians
and the destruction of energy infrastructure.

And I'll add the latest information
from British Intelligence:

Lack of artillery ammunition
most likely remains the key

factor limiting Russian offensive operations.

It is unlikely that Russia has been
able to accumulate enough artillery

ammunition for large-scale offensive operations.

The vulnerability of the current
Russian operational plan is that

even continuing defensive operations along a long

front line requires a significant daily
expenditure of ammunition and missiles.

In the near future we are waiting for news on
the release of Kinburn Spit, see you tomorrow.