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Why are the attacks on RussianĀ
airfields an important and key event?
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First, it is a potentialĀ
weakening of their frontline.Ā Ā
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Russia is big. It cannot in principle coverĀ
all of its territory with its air defenses.Ā Ā
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Close all their bases with anti-aircraft systemsĀ
too. They are already catastrophically short ofĀ Ā
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air defense equipment. They are taking theirĀ
S-300 missile systems and bringing them fromĀ Ā
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Syria precisely because of the shortage. Now theĀ
Russian command faces the dilemma of removing someĀ Ā
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air defense forces from the front and movingĀ
them under important strategic facilities,Ā Ā
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thereby weakening the front even more,Ā
or leave their bases unprotected.
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Secondly, it is Ukrainian potential. Kiev hasĀ
shown that it strictly follows word and deed,Ā Ā
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and has the ability to create conditions andĀ
means to influence the enemy at large distances,Ā Ā
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including military installationsĀ
in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
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Third is the change in the rules of the game.Ā
Whereas before Ukraine was a passive victim,Ā Ā
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now it is gradually but surely taking over theĀ
initiative at all levels, up to and including theĀ Ā
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strategic level. Eventually, the war will have toĀ
move to a state where Russia fights off Ukraine,Ā Ā
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rather than where Ukraine fights off Russia.Ā
After that, it will already be possible forĀ Ā
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Kiev to fully demand the end of hostilitiesĀ
at the negotiating table on its own terms.Ā Ā
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This is a return to the 1991 borders,Ā
reparations, and disarmament of Russia.
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Fourth, it is a demonstration of Russia's extremeĀ
vulnerability. The attacks took place not justĀ Ā
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anywhere, but at military airfields, whereĀ
strategic aviation capable of carrying nuclearĀ Ā
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weapons is located. That is, one component of theĀ
Kremlin's nuclear triad. The shield was rottenĀ Ā
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and was punctured by several accurate blows. ThisĀ
is a signal to NATO and the West in general thatĀ Ā
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there is no point in being afraid of the nuclearĀ
bear. It is vulnerable and cannot do anythingĀ Ā
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substantial in response. By the way, there isĀ
already such an understanding, for example, AustinĀ Ā
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Lloyd said that the U.S. does not limit UkraineĀ
in any way in the creation of long-range weapons.
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Fifth, there is the cost. Russia's strategicĀ
bombers are piecemeal machines and insanelyĀ Ā
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expensive. Restoring and repairingĀ
them is time consuming and expensive.Ā Ā
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The Kremlin does not spare hundredsĀ
of thousands of its subjects,Ā Ā
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but the expensive military vehicles are anĀ
exhaustible and difficult resource to restore.
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