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Russia spends munitions faster than it can
produce. To date, Russian troops on the
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entire front line per day produce an average
of 20,000 shots. At the initial stage of the
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full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this figure
per day was 70 and even 80 thousand shots!
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In turn, Russia's production capacity allows
it to produce from 1 to 1.5 million artillery
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rounds of various calibers per year. In other
words, relying solely on domestic production,
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Russia can provide an average
of 2,500 to 4,000 rounds a day.
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That is, the depletion of ammunition stockpiles
will lead the Russian troops to a shell famine in
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tactical terms, as the forces of the Armed
Forces also make 4-5 thousand shots a day.
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The artillery of the Russian troops
is much worse than that of Ukraine.
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Less range, much lower accuracy, exhausted life
of barrels and not only. All these shortcomings
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were compensated for by the large number
of shells and the firing rampart tactics.
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You don’t need precision when the amount of
ammunition allows you to simply wipe out cities,
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villages, and woodlands. But when your
ammunition does not allow you to do so,
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you can neither attack nor defend,
and artillery becomes a liability.
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And it is at this stage of turning Russian
artillery into a liability that Russian troops are
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now. In the next 3-4 months, the Russian artillery
as a branch of the army will cease to exist.
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Not because it will be destroyed,
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no, but because it will, metaphorically
speaking, simply have nothing to shoot.
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That is, the use of artillery will
continue, but without any efficiency
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or critical influence on the course of combat
operations, as before, and the presence of the
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kind of troops itself in the combat zone
will represent a rudimentary outgrowth.
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Now Russian troops are erecting defense
lines and fortifications throughout the
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entire zone of combat operations. On the
left bank of the Kherson region, on Lugansk,
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near Mariupol and even in temporarily
occupied Crimea in the Dzhankoy region.
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And all this while the senselessness
of these actions is known to them.
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For example, three lines of defense have been
erected on the left bank of the Kherson region,
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which are supposed to block the counteroffensive
of the AFU by forcing the Dnieper.
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But no one is in a hurry to force the Dnieper,
and there are daily strikes on the defense lines.
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In this way, the Russian troops have
driven themselves into a senseless trap,
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turning into targets for the AFU. And every
day in this dash the potential of Russian
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troops is reduced, a precedent is set for
levelling the combat effectiveness of units,
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and therefore the potential
of the defense is reduced.
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And similar tactics will be
used by the AFU everywhere.
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Slow, methodical, systematic punching of lines of
defense, which in time will simply be abandoned.
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It’s only a matter of time, and
the result will always be the same.
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Therefore Russian troops can build as many
fortifications as they like according to
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the old Soviet methodology, but they will
not help them in modern warfare at all.
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But the Russians have not understood
this by the 9th month of the war.
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