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and P 500 makes positive gains
over the many years. Here for
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made a slightly positive gain.
Um but USD had big divergence
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the short term. So you must
understand the global economics
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synchronized growth like China
and the Eurozone. So whereas at
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to decrease in price as well as
we started decreasing S and P
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that will give us a clearer and
better understanding of the
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500 index and the DXY. Um
during COVID lockdowns there
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investment was going into the
Eurozone. In 2017 we saw global
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other currencies were not doing
the same. Now that's mainly
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general rule to the
correlation. Particularly in
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flows where capital and
investment is going into and
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investments such as into
indexes and of course from what
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means is whilst USD was
increasing in price. Lots of
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you know started to deflate at
that time it's called reflation
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market particularly long term
anyways guys that's it for the
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00 and DXY. So the takeaway
lesson from all of this is
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actually no set rule of what
you may see in the short term.
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riskier investments are not
preferred hence why stocks may
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about investments into that
country and how it affects
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example during COVID lockdowns
back in June of twenty twenty.
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are people seeking their safe
havens? Where they seeking that
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positive correlation between
the S and P fivehundred and
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stock prices and everything
like that but in terms of the
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because the Fed had one of the
first we won't call it
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example I see a direct
correlation particularly on the
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logically thinking the
investment at the time. Lots of
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learnt about constant ease in
and then the lesson afterwards
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lower time frame but when it
comes to the stock market and
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lower time frames you're not
really going to see this as a
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yield market and DXY for
example. So what you must
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logical. As bond prices go up
interest rates go down. The
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500 USD should also rise at the
same time as well. Times when
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understand about S and P
5hundred and DXY. There is no
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the time in 2015 where we saw
DXY massively increase because
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was a complete inverse
correlation between S and P 5
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asset classes. Which one makes
sense to perform better? Where
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bond purchases there's never
actually really been a
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following suit after this after
what they happened and what
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So where as if we look at you
know Euro USD and DXY for
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there's this correlation
because you've got to think
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program. But USD had a much
more successful one. Therefore
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successful one. It's always
gone on quantitative easing
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course consider this long term
understand where money actually
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500 increases and grows so does
so does DXY however this isn't
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500 so good gains now this is
the point that I made in the
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This was I believe on a on a
four hour chart between S and P
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slows down. Therefore US
increases because safe haven
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So what happened then? The
dollar increased because it was
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easing program. So if we if we
think back to that where we
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first lesson of the asset class
correlations I hope this will
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positive correlation now as you
can see over time as a S and P
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where we talked about how
tapering occurs. This is
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at the time and look for the
movement of money into certain
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better yield? Are they seeking
an investment for a hedge
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the US dollar we don't see that
direct correlation but of
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the Eurozone. Another thing as
well, the dollar doesn't like
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downside because of mainly the
strength into USD and also
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suffer a bit during these
times. But ultimately the the S
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all the way up as seen by this
orange line over here. Stocks
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against inflation for example.
Now during times of crisis
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You can also see on at that
time Euro USD saw so much
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of the US monetary policy. Two
years later on that's when we
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reflation. Um so what you tend
to see is as a dollar really
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they led. Um China started to
get stronger as well especially
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beginning over the last 20
years there's been a 40%
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direct correlation as compared
to what we may see in the US 10
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and demand appeal. Slow down in
trade slows down USD liquidity.
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always see a rise in the stock
market. We've got 2008 crisis.
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then the stock market is in
orange let me just check that
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USD is a safe haven in these
times so risk assets like
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always the case you've got to
understand that long term
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higher returns on the
investment as well therefore
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it had a massive divergence
from other global currencies.
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translates into the US dollar
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it goes back to how it was
that's when the dollar started
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started to see a lot of the the
other global economies
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completely successful tapering
plan because if you actually
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divergences from global
currencies. Um so what this
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tapered back constant easing.
Therefore the US dollar boosted
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market. So as we can see the
stock market is always we
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people investing into the US
economy therefore not as much
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yield goes down too. As bond
prices go down, interest rates
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look into the history of
tapering and slowing down the
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treated like a safe haven and
stocks went down at that time.
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exactly what happened. Um in
twenty fifteen the Fed actually
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we've seen the bond market. Now
just actually looking at the
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In twenty fifteen the Fed
tapered back the quantitative
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therefore as more investment
happens into into the S and P
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what we got here is the dollar
is in blue I believe it is and
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10 yield also strengthens. Um
and also instead US ten US ten
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stocks decline as investors
would much rather go for safer
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does that have firstly on the
bond market and then how that
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real quick No the the orange is
DXY and blue is the stock
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asset class correlation between
the stocks and the dollar. So
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DXY. Because of foreign
investment they invest into the
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you've got to think about it
like this you you always must
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there there's immense global
uncertainty international trade
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US stock so they need to
exchange money into USD
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understand where is investment
going into and then what effect
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Now over the last 20 years
there's been a 40 percent
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there's more investment into
the country now this is
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it ranges, there's different
maturity dates. Now the
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correlation that you've got to
understand is usually when
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simply just declines. The
reason for this is quite
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So the second type that we're
looking at is the stock market.
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of price moves. You start to
see that as DXY strengthens US
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interest rate environment means
a higher return on the bond so
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bonds for example 3 month
bonds, 30 year bonds, you know
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something that you guys should
understand until now because
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go up, the yield goes up too.
Now think of this. The higher
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in the yields. You understand
that there's of course two year
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there's big news events that
leads to these different types
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understand from treasury bond
market that means the US ten
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the US ten yield of course
we've learned about the bonds
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market and then commodity
market. In this first lesson
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stocks. Then of course we had
the bond market, the currency
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classes. So that was mainly the
equities markets which is bond
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we're going to be looking at
stocks and bonds. So let's
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start off with the treasury
bond market. So as you
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we looked at the various
different types of asset
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first videos that we did in the
first section of fundamentals
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especially but we're going to
be looking at the asset class
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correlations. So if you
remember back to one of our
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that I've been getting you know
as request from my students
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So guys this is probably in one
of the most anticipated videos
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make sense and I'll see you in
the next video Yeah.
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