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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:07:32,403 --> 00:07:37,483 and P 500 makes positive gains over the many years. Here for 2 00:04:11,103 --> 00:04:16,663 made a slightly positive gain. Um but USD had big divergence 3 00:07:03,583 --> 00:07:07,183 the short term. So you must understand the global economics 4 00:05:19,463 --> 00:05:23,863 synchronized growth like China and the Eurozone. So whereas at 5 00:06:06,523 --> 00:06:11,963 to decrease in price as well as we started decreasing S and P 6 00:08:27,503 --> 00:08:30,503 that will give us a clearer and better understanding of the 7 00:07:47,803 --> 00:07:53,123 500 index and the DXY. Um during COVID lockdowns there 8 00:05:12,783 --> 00:05:19,463 investment was going into the Eurozone. In 2017 we saw global 9 00:04:27,243 --> 00:04:30,403 other currencies were not doing the same. Now that's mainly 10 00:07:01,063 --> 00:07:03,583 general rule to the correlation. Particularly in 11 00:08:23,703 --> 00:08:27,503 flows where capital and investment is going into and 12 00:02:55,783 --> 00:02:59,383 investments such as into indexes and of course from what 13 00:04:20,223 --> 00:04:27,243 means is whilst USD was increasing in price. Lots of 14 00:05:58,043 --> 00:06:02,883 you know started to deflate at that time it's called reflation 15 00:08:30,503 --> 00:08:34,063 market particularly long term anyways guys that's it for the 16 00:07:55,803 --> 00:08:00,683 00 and DXY. So the takeaway lesson from all of this is 17 00:08:00,683 --> 00:08:04,443 actually no set rule of what you may see in the short term. 18 00:07:25,063 --> 00:07:28,543 riskier investments are not preferred hence why stocks may 19 00:06:37,503 --> 00:06:40,463 about investments into that country and how it affects 20 00:07:37,483 --> 00:07:42,363 example during COVID lockdowns back in June of twenty twenty. 21 00:07:14,223 --> 00:07:17,063 are people seeking their safe havens? Where they seeking that 22 00:02:14,003 --> 00:02:17,203 positive correlation between the S and P fivehundred and 23 00:06:40,463 --> 00:06:43,903 stock prices and everything like that but in terms of the 24 00:04:30,403 --> 00:04:35,203 because the Fed had one of the first we won't call it 25 00:08:09,143 --> 00:08:11,943 example I see a direct correlation particularly on the 26 00:05:06,383 --> 00:05:09,263 logically thinking the investment at the time. Lots of 27 00:03:52,583 --> 00:03:55,943 learnt about constant ease in and then the lesson afterwards 28 00:08:11,943 --> 00:08:15,383 lower time frame but when it comes to the stock market and 29 00:06:43,903 --> 00:06:47,063 lower time frames you're not really going to see this as a 30 00:06:51,663 --> 00:06:57,343 yield market and DXY for example. So what you must 31 00:01:23,463 --> 00:01:28,023 logical. As bond prices go up interest rates go down. The 32 00:02:28,923 --> 00:02:33,963 500 USD should also rise at the same time as well. Times when 33 00:06:57,343 --> 00:07:01,063 understand about S and P 5hundred and DXY. There is no 34 00:05:23,863 --> 00:05:28,343 the time in 2015 where we saw DXY massively increase because 35 00:07:53,123 --> 00:07:55,803 was a complete inverse correlation between S and P 5 36 00:07:09,943 --> 00:07:14,223 asset classes. Which one makes sense to perform better? Where 37 00:04:44,923 --> 00:04:47,203 bond purchases there's never actually really been a 38 00:05:37,703 --> 00:05:40,983 following suit after this after what they happened and what 39 00:08:04,443 --> 00:08:09,143 So where as if we look at you know Euro USD and DXY for 40 00:06:35,023 --> 00:06:37,503 there's this correlation because you've got to think 41 00:04:49,883 --> 00:04:53,683 program. But USD had a much more successful one. Therefore 42 00:04:47,203 --> 00:04:49,883 successful one. It's always gone on quantitative easing 43 00:08:19,903 --> 00:08:23,703 course consider this long term understand where money actually 44 00:06:24,783 --> 00:06:32,143 500 increases and grows so does so does DXY however this isn't 45 00:06:11,963 --> 00:06:17,683 500 so good gains now this is the point that I made in the 46 00:07:42,363 --> 00:07:47,803 This was I believe on a on a four hour chart between S and P 47 00:02:37,923 --> 00:02:41,863 slows down. Therefore US increases because safe haven 48 00:03:35,223 --> 00:03:39,423 So what happened then? The dollar increased because it was 49 00:03:47,463 --> 00:03:52,583 easing program. So if we if we think back to that where we 50 00:08:34,063 --> 00:08:36,863 first lesson of the asset class correlations I hope this will 51 00:06:20,523 --> 00:06:24,783 positive correlation now as you can see over time as a S and P 52 00:03:55,943 --> 00:03:58,943 where we talked about how tapering occurs. This is 53 00:07:07,183 --> 00:07:09,943 at the time and look for the movement of money into certain 54 00:07:17,063 --> 00:07:21,343 better yield? Are they seeking an investment for a hedge 55 00:08:15,383 --> 00:08:19,903 the US dollar we don't see that direct correlation but of 56 00:05:46,103 --> 00:05:50,263 the Eurozone. Another thing as well, the dollar doesn't like 57 00:05:00,503 --> 00:05:06,383 downside because of mainly the strength into USD and also 58 00:07:28,543 --> 00:07:32,403 suffer a bit during these times. But ultimately the the S 59 00:04:06,743 --> 00:04:11,103 all the way up as seen by this orange line over here. Stocks 60 00:07:21,343 --> 00:07:25,063 against inflation for example. Now during times of crisis 61 00:04:56,803 --> 00:05:00,503 You can also see on at that time Euro USD saw so much 62 00:05:28,343 --> 00:05:33,223 of the US monetary policy. Two years later on that's when we 63 00:05:50,263 --> 00:05:58,043 reflation. Um so what you tend to see is as a dollar really 64 00:05:40,983 --> 00:05:46,103 they led. Um China started to get stronger as well especially 65 00:06:17,683 --> 00:06:20,523 beginning over the last 20 years there's been a 40% 66 00:06:47,063 --> 00:06:51,663 direct correlation as compared to what we may see in the US 10 67 00:02:41,863 --> 00:02:48,143 and demand appeal. Slow down in trade slows down USD liquidity. 68 00:03:30,023 --> 00:03:35,223 always see a rise in the stock market. We've got 2008 crisis. 69 00:03:15,623 --> 00:03:19,263 then the stock market is in orange let me just check that 70 00:02:48,143 --> 00:02:52,223 USD is a safe haven in these times so risk assets like 71 00:06:32,143 --> 00:06:35,023 always the case you've got to understand that long term 72 00:01:40,643 --> 00:01:43,763 higher returns on the investment as well therefore 73 00:04:53,683 --> 00:04:56,803 it had a massive divergence from other global currencies. 74 00:02:02,563 --> 00:02:06,723 translates into the US dollar 75 00:06:02,883 --> 00:06:06,523 it goes back to how it was that's when the dollar started 76 00:05:33,223 --> 00:05:37,703 started to see a lot of the the other global economies 77 00:04:35,203 --> 00:04:40,483 completely successful tapering plan because if you actually 78 00:04:16,663 --> 00:04:20,223 divergences from global currencies. Um so what this 79 00:04:02,903 --> 00:04:06,743 tapered back constant easing. Therefore the US dollar boosted 80 00:03:25,263 --> 00:03:30,023 market. So as we can see the stock market is always we 81 00:05:09,263 --> 00:05:12,783 people investing into the US economy therefore not as much 82 00:01:28,023 --> 00:01:32,743 yield goes down too. As bond prices go down, interest rates 83 00:04:40,483 --> 00:04:44,923 look into the history of tapering and slowing down the 84 00:03:39,423 --> 00:03:43,703 treated like a safe haven and stocks went down at that time. 85 00:03:58,943 --> 00:04:02,903 exactly what happened. Um in twenty fifteen the Fed actually 86 00:02:59,383 --> 00:03:03,943 we've seen the bond market. Now just actually looking at the 87 00:03:43,703 --> 00:03:47,463 In twenty fifteen the Fed tapered back the quantitative 88 00:02:24,803 --> 00:02:28,923 therefore as more investment happens into into the S and P 89 00:03:09,703 --> 00:03:15,623 what we got here is the dollar is in blue I believe it is and 90 00:01:13,703 --> 00:01:19,583 10 yield also strengthens. Um and also instead US ten US ten 91 00:02:52,223 --> 00:02:55,783 stocks decline as investors would much rather go for safer 92 00:01:58,803 --> 00:02:02,563 does that have firstly on the bond market and then how that 93 00:03:19,263 --> 00:03:25,263 real quick No the the orange is DXY and blue is the stock 94 00:03:03,943 --> 00:03:09,703 asset class correlation between the stocks and the dollar. So 95 00:02:17,203 --> 00:02:20,923 DXY. Because of foreign investment they invest into the 96 00:01:52,683 --> 00:01:55,643 you've got to think about it like this you you always must 97 00:02:33,963 --> 00:02:37,923 there there's immense global uncertainty international trade 98 00:02:20,923 --> 00:02:24,803 US stock so they need to exchange money into USD 99 00:01:55,643 --> 00:01:58,803 understand where is investment going into and then what effect 100 00:02:11,083 --> 00:02:14,003 Now over the last 20 years there's been a 40 percent 101 00:01:43,763 --> 00:01:47,483 there's more investment into the country now this is 102 00:00:54,983 --> 00:00:59,143 it ranges, there's different maturity dates. Now the 103 00:00:59,143 --> 00:01:04,983 correlation that you've got to understand is usually when 104 00:01:19,583 --> 00:01:23,463 simply just declines. The reason for this is quite 105 00:02:07,303 --> 00:02:11,083 So the second type that we're looking at is the stock market. 106 00:01:09,023 --> 00:01:13,703 of price moves. You start to see that as DXY strengthens US 107 00:01:36,363 --> 00:01:40,643 interest rate environment means a higher return on the bond so 108 00:00:51,303 --> 00:00:54,983 bonds for example 3 month bonds, 30 year bonds, you know 109 00:01:47,483 --> 00:01:52,683 something that you guys should understand until now because 110 00:01:32,743 --> 00:01:36,363 go up, the yield goes up too. Now think of this. The higher 111 00:00:46,143 --> 00:00:51,303 in the yields. You understand that there's of course two year 112 00:01:04,983 --> 00:01:09,023 there's big news events that leads to these different types 113 00:00:40,343 --> 00:00:43,343 understand from treasury bond market that means the US ten 114 00:00:43,343 --> 00:00:46,143 the US ten yield of course we've learned about the bonds 115 00:00:29,943 --> 00:00:32,663 market and then commodity market. In this first lesson 116 00:00:26,783 --> 00:00:29,943 stocks. Then of course we had the bond market, the currency 117 00:00:23,223 --> 00:00:26,783 classes. So that was mainly the equities markets which is bond 118 00:00:32,663 --> 00:00:37,263 we're going to be looking at stocks and bonds. So let's 119 00:00:37,263 --> 00:00:40,343 start off with the treasury bond market. So as you 120 00:00:20,903 --> 00:00:23,223 we looked at the various different types of asset 121 00:00:16,863 --> 00:00:20,903 first videos that we did in the first section of fundamentals 122 00:00:11,263 --> 00:00:13,863 especially but we're going to be looking at the asset class 123 00:00:13,863 --> 00:00:16,863 correlations. So if you remember back to one of our 124 00:00:08,183 --> 00:00:11,263 that I've been getting you know as request from my students 125 00:00:03,043 --> 00:00:08,183 So guys this is probably in one of the most anticipated videos 126 00:08:36,863 --> 00:08:41,303 make sense and I'll see you in the next video Yeah. 11723

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