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the trade. That money is
already written off. Because
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then if you take a valid losing
trade, you know that that loss
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individual trades. Trying to
predict the outcome of
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doing the exact same thing over
and over again. You're focused
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gamblers and amateur traders.
You must keep a long-term
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because we don't care what
happens on each individual
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is just taking you one step
closer to your inevitable
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swing that way emotionally when
you get it right how do you
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tearing his hair out trying to
predict where the roulette ball
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you're going to feel depressed
and that pridefulness that you
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winning streak. It's just
probabilities. That is
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vision. Master traders focused
on executing their proven edge
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you're slightly better than the
market but the more that you
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on the next five, ten, 20,
fifty, 100 trades. You have
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fully accepted the risk before
you even know the outcome of
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the exact same way when you hit
a massive winner as when you
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right you can become euphoric
you can really start to feel
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have truly mastered your
trading mindset you will feel
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later? When I first started out
trading and you know, people
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this before, they usually often
react and and you know in shock
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haven't already are, you know,
what is the US dollar going to
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consistently make money because
they have an edge that plays
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casino manager sitting up in
his office watching the
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think you will then react when
you inevitably get it wrong
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think he sits up there cheering
on the ball, stomping his feet
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out over time. Now remember the
coin flipping game from the
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will land? What if a gambler
puts down a big bet? Do you
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games just as traders ought not
to care about the results of
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and they're like, what do you
mean you have no idea? I
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were feeling that's going to
turn into a feeling of shame
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these questions literally
countless of times. My only
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flip. We make money from
applying a mathematical edge
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you know you're going to feel
like you're not good enough
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you're going to feel stupid and
disheartened now picture the
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actionable certainty and
secondly, it would be pointless
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really proud and sort of you
know supremely intelligent like
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The casino manager does no.
They have no idea but yet they
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over hundreds of flips the same
way as in trading and the issue
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course not. He doesn't care
about the results of individual
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then ask them back if the
casino knows what number the
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lesson before. What if I was to
have you try and predict the
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with zero expectation on the
individual outcome when you
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if you don't know what's
going to happen next? Now, at
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crystal ball. As you can
imagine, especially if you've
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and chanting for it to not land
on red fourteen? Alright, of
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roulette viral with the camera
feet. Can you imagine him
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individual trades is just a
futile exercise if favored by
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may incur and all of those five
are really great lessons that
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outcome of each and every
individual flip of the coin.
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ball is going to land on in the
roulette table. Of course, they
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don't. It's impossible to know
because an individual spin is
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random, right? And it's the
exact same concept in trading.
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that they can participate in as
many games as possible. Right,
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trying to predict individual
trades is that when you get it
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this point, if you can be
bothered to explain to them,
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take the time to explain to
them that, you know, we don't
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losing trades because they know
that that would destroy their
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we can apply to our trading
Now, as a currency trader, some
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spin and they don't need to
know. The outcome from each
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already had a similar
conversation with someone about
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where you know the punter could
potentially have a lucky win
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response now is that I
literally have no idea what's
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going to happen to next. You
know, I don't have a magical
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really predict price movements
per se but after answering
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take a loss you won't care
because you know you're just
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thought you're a currency
trader. How do you make money
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putting maximum bet size limits
on the table because that
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Firstly, it would be impossible
to predict with any degree of
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out and survive any inevitable
random losing streaks that they
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puts risk management measures
in place so it allows them to
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plan no matter what. If they
lose money on five spins in a
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stay in the game long enough to
see their profitable edge play
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remember, to see the edge play
out over time. Now, they have
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money from carrying a positive
profit expectancy and allowing
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that could end up wiping out
the casino so the casino just
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and modify their strategy rules
after only a small number of
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so they use risk management
techniques such as you know
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of the common questions you no
doubt will receive if you
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prevents any of the punters
from putting on a huge bet
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no idea if it's going to win or
lose but if it's random on an
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they are able to amass billions
of dollars in revenue each year
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to change the rules of the
game. They don't try to tweak
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the casino never knows if they
will make money on any given
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individual spin or trade is
completely random. They've got
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probability model. And finally,
they take measures to ensure
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large number you to play as
many games as possible,
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play virtual roulette but what
this means for the casino is
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would ask me these type of
questions, I used to try and
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the casino that we can actually
apply to our training? Well,
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individual spin, then how do
they make money? They make
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what are some of the key
lessons that we can learn from
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row, you know, they're not
getting emotional and beginning
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do next? Is it a good time to
buy euros for my holiday now or
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it to play out over a large
number of trials. The law of
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nice comfortable chair in front
of a big screen and essentially
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about the casino for a second.
The house holds a slight
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you are going to go and play
roulette you're actually better
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games every single day. They
are the masters of exploiting
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mathematical edge with each
game that they play and they
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the law of large numbers to
their advantage. Now, think
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off going to Europe to play
where there is only one zero
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have to consider a roulette
table with 10 players each with
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tables everywhere they're
becoming really popular and
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the profitable edge works
through over time. This is how
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strict rules for each game and
they never, they never break
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essentially with these machines
Ganders can just sit down on a
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whereby they can play their
games. Now in America they
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they now require less staff and
they can pretty much run games
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and erect those massive grand
buildings all over the world
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keep playing day in, day out,
every day of the year so that
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and sometimes even more of
these tables and they usually
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the last time I was in Vegas
they had electronic roulette
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thousands of pounds worth of
chips that they're willing to
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and the odds are slightly
higher on the tables there. So,
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gamble and then remember each
casino probably has 10, 2030
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them. So, essentially, they
always stick to their trade
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quicker which then means
they're getting in even more
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actually have two green zeroes
on the roulette world. So if
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roulette gambler now 270 may
not seem like much then you
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win multiplied by the
probability of you winning
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£270 loss for every 100 pounds
that you bet so from the
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profit expectancy of £270 for
every 00 pounds that is bet we
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and then we divide that by our
minus 100pound loss times 19
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player you actually have a
negative profit expectancy of a
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which you then add to the
amount that you can lose
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open twenty-four hours a day
you know even these days right
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total to minus 270 so what that
actually means is as a roulette
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over 37 because remember there
are 18 red numbers and that one
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multiplied by the probability
of that loss occurring. So in
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casino's point of view however
right they have a positive
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this case that's a 100 pounds
times 18 over 37 because there
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green number which both means
will lose so this is equal in
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are 18 black numbers out of a
total 37 numbers on the wheel
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loss so if the ball lands on a
red number or the green zero
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calculate the profit
expectancy. So remember the
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want to make sure that we are
the casino right and not the
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profit expectation is the
profit that you can make if you
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chance of winning by flipping a
heads or tails but then we ever
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those will result in a loss so
hopefully Remember how to
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that will be a 100pound loss
now out of the 37 total sells
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principle. So let's use our
knowledge of probability to
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previous lesson with the coin
toss example where it was a 50%
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so slightly skewed the odds in
our favor by changing the
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that will just cost our initial
bet which is obviously a 100-
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the ball lands on a black
number and we win or if we lose
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18 of those are black which
will result in a win and then
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the other remaining 19 sells
are either red or green and
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calculate what your profit
expectancy is with a 100 pound
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to one so that just means that
we'll make a 100 poundprofit if
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bet on black. Now a few things
we need to know a win pays one
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winning payout. Well this is
essentially the exact same
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red cells and 18 black cells.
Zero is green and that
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numbers one to 36 are made up
of an even distribution of 18
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green zero cell, the casino
ever so slightly tilts the odds
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extremely simple and we're only
going to concentrate on the red
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for the sake of this example,
we're going to keep it
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and black diamonds on the
bottom of the table. Now the
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in their favor on each and
every game. So remember in the
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represents an automatic win for
the casino. So by including the
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standard roulette wheel is
numbered from zero to 36 and
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at one of the most popular
tables, the roulette wheel. And
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understand how they make money
and then see if we can learn
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some things for our trading
business. So let's take a look
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Casinos are the undisputed
masters of the world at Playing
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masterful trading. That is
photon trading.
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an Edge. So let's have a quick
look at their business model to
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