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Lugansk region. Svatove.
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Do you know what a unitÂ
loses combat effectiveness? Â
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It is when a unit suffers losses of 30%Â
or more, both in personnel and equipment.
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Some time ago I told you about the fact thatÂ
almost all units of Russian troops are incomplete. Â
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Virtually all of them. ThisÂ
is due to the fact that they Â
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are unable to perform full rotation andÂ
withdrawal to restore combat readiness.
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In the last month and a half, the returnÂ
to combat readiness of the Russian troops Â
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in the combat zone has consistedÂ
solely of resupply of personnel, Â
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primarily new recruits without experience,Â
and of replenishing forces on the spot.
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That is, there was no standard withdrawalÂ
of the broken units with the subsequent Â
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replacement of them with more fresh, fullyÂ
staffed, and was simply filled with live meat. Â
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And all because the Russian Army simply does notÂ
have any fresh and regular fully manned units.
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Thus, for the last month and a halfÂ
the units in the combat zone that Â
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require restoration of combat readinessÂ
have been filled with minced meat of Â
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new recruits and were consideredÂ
to be replenished, combat-ready!
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But the consumption of minced meat in the categoryÂ
of "recruit" is very rapid and now, in the Svatov Â
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location, Russian troops have a difficultÂ
situation. Units of 55 motorized rifle brigade Â
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and 3 motorized rifle division have a loss ofÂ
combat capability above 30%. And not even 40%, and Â
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a little higher. Well, letâs just say some unitsÂ
are 60% nonoperational in personnel and equipment.
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And all this should hold back theÂ
counterattack of the Ukrainian armed Â
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forces in the direction of Svatove? And thenÂ
there is winter on the horizon. Logistics, Â
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logistical support and other incomprehensibleÂ
things are beyond everyday perception.
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I do not know how it will be in reality, but inÂ
my humble opinion by the end of 2022 there will Â
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be a cascading collapse of the occupationÂ
troops' defense all the way to Starobilsk.
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Further the Ukrainian troops will have to avoidÂ
entering the territories occupied since 2014, Â
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there is a probability that they will be jammedÂ
with the old positions from the south and the Â
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border from the north. Therefore, it is moreÂ
likely that there will be a temporary halt Â
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on the Starobilsk line with furtherÂ
destruction of the enemy's logistics. Â
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It is behind him that the occupiers areÂ
trying to create defensive positions.
3600
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