Original subtitles

Two factors are driving the retreat of Russian forces. First, the successful recent Ukrainian

offensives against Russian units in the Kherson region, especially on the banks of the Dnieper.

Second, the trap in which many Russian units are trapped to the southwest on

the islands that form the river delta, where the Dnieper begins to flow into the Black Sea.

Russia is now trying to move large reinforcements of recruits to areas south of the Dnieper

in the hope of preventing further advances by Ukrainian forces, which could push their forces

to the Black Sea coast and cut them off from the northwestern approaches to the Crimean Peninsula.

Many of these recruits are currently stationed in Crimea,

in key areas of the Donetsk region, and on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

Virtually all of them lack training, suitable clothing, weapons, and other equipment.

Consequently, without these resources, they are unfit for duty, as are many other front-line

units. When Ukraine continues its offensive, the conscripts will be a huge burden to the

Russian command. They will have to deal with deserters ready to surrender or refuse to fight.

Once Ukraine's armed forces break through Russian positions in Donetsk oblast,

where fighting has been particularly intense, and hold those positions under their control,

Russian units in Crimea and on the left bank of the Dnieper River will be in a desperate position.

Winter is fast approaching. Many recruits and regular troops will

face hunger and cold if they are deprived of vital supplies of food, water, fuel,

etc. They will have no choice but to surrender to stay alive.

The surrender of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on the Crimean Peninsula, in the Dnieper

basin, and in the Donbass would be a powerful blow to Russia and to Putin's ego. The strategically

important Crimean peninsula and the naval base in Sevastopol, together with the Russian naval

forces stationed there, will return to Ukrainian control. The land bridge connecting Russia with

Crimea through the Donbass and Luhansk regions will also be lost. Since the occupied territories

on Ukraine's left bank, the Crimean peninsula, and the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics

are at the core of Putin's overall strategy, defeat in these areas would likely end the war.

There may soon be a full mobilization in Russia and attempts to push back the Ukrainians with

large forces of recruits, but these battles will be bloodier and more intense than anything we have

seen in this war so far. And this time Russia will find itself in the position of the losing side.