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A column of Ukrainian armored vehicles accompanied by tanks approaches their ready positions,

prepared for a fresh assault into the Russian defenses outside of Kherson. The

Ukrainian counteroffensive has been wildly successful, beyond even the scope of the

most optimistic military planners. Russia can't hold the line against Ukrainian grit

and firepower and its troops are on steady retreat across the entire eastern front.

On Friday, September 30th, 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin had annexed

four regions of Ukraine, declaring them Russian territory. This now allows him

to use all available means at his disposal to neutralize the Ukrainian counterattack. Now,

with his back against the wall, Vladimir Putin becomes the second

person in history to order the use of nuclear weapons in war.

A brilliant fireball lights up the night sky, incinerating the column of Ukrainian

vehicles. Even inside their armored shells the Ukrainian soldiers are killed instantly- those

who are far enough away to survive the heat and blast are killed by the

radiation bombarding their bodies. Several hundred Ukrainian soldiers and a few dozen

vehicles are destroyed. The attack has been largely insignificant in terms of military

value- Ukrainian forces have mastered the tactic of dispersing and reuniting again

for sudden offensives. But it sends a clear message to Ukraine and the rest of the world.

Thousands of miles above the planet, a United States satellite, part of the American space

surveillance network, detects the distinct double-flash of a nuclear explosion. The

alarm is instantly relayed via communications satellites using the secure Link 16 encrypted

radio frequency system. Within thirty seconds of detection, the alarm has already reached US

Space Force monitoring stations in North America and similar offices across the NATO alliance.

Minutes later, the alert reaches the desk of US President Joe Biden. Picking up a secure phone,

he dials a direct connection to General Mark A. Milley,

the Chariman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and most powerful military officer on the

planet. President Biden speaks only three words into the receiver, “Execute Plan 36.”

The coded order is relayed via US communications satellites to Stuttgart,

Germany and the office of the commander of US European Command,

General Christopher G. Cavoli. Within minutes the authenticated order is transmitted to US

forces in RAF Bentwaters and RAF Lakenheath inside of England. A separate communique is

dispatched to the USS supercarrier George H.W. Bush, currently stationed in the Mediterranean.

The Bush is loitering in waters off the southern coast of Turkey,

and the ship immediately turns into the wind as its flight deck erupts in a flurry

of activity. Ever since Putin's threats of using nuclear weapons, the American military

has been prepared to respond. Beneath the deck of the Bush, F18 Superhornets are having AIM

160 MALDs attached to wing hard points. Each hornet can carry two of the large weapons,

a capability kept secret from the world until now. Two squadrons of the high performance aircraft are

quickly made ready and begin the journey to the flight deck above where they stand ready.

In England, crews rush to man a fleet of eight B-52 Stratofortress bombers. The big planes are

the backbone of the US bomber fleet, and can bring a frighteningly large amount of firepower

to bear thousands of miles away. Joining them are four B-2 bombers also kept on alert status,

their crews ready to go at a moment's notice with bellies full of weapons. Within fifteen

minutes the first planes are taking to the sky and turning southeast towards mainland Europe.

Two hours later the bomber fleet links up with two squadrons of US Air Force F-22

Raptors taking off from bases in Germany. The Raptors are flying in stealth configuration,

which means their wing pylons are clean of weapons. The internal weapons bay however is

loaded with six AIM-120 air to air missiles and two AIM-9 short range missiles in the side bays.

The formation continues towards the Black Sea, the F-22s leading the way.

An hour later the F-22s link up with a loitering US Air Force tanker aircraft in order to top off

their fuel stores. The B-52s loiter as the F-22s refuel, with enough capacity to fly

strike missions in Europe from their home bases in America, the B-52s have no need to refuel.

As the F-22s refuel, NATO AWACS aircraft flying along the Ukrainian and Turkish coasts sweep the

skies with their powerful radars, looking for any potential hostile targets that could pose a

problem for the mission. The aircraft's powerful radar only has a range just above 250 miles,

so they can only see across approximately half of the Black Sea. Soon they will move

for a closer look, but in order to maintain the element of surprise,

the AWACS stick to their normal flight patterns instituted at start of the war in Ukraine.

The F-22's refueling however is the signal for the USS Bush to begin launching her Superhornets. One

by one the high performance strike fighters take to the sky, their compatriots wheeling

in the skies above the carrier strike group and waiting until both squadrons have taken to the

air. Then the planes split into two groups, taking similar but distinct routes north and into Turkish

air space. One route will take the group west of Ankara while another will take the other group

over Sivas. An hour later, both squadrons pivot northeast, heading straight for the Black Sea.

The B-52s, B-2s and F-22s have now reached the Black Sea. The

United States operation to punish Russia for its use of nuclear weapons is a go.

The B-2s take the lead now. The entire formation has turned south and then east again,

which will allow it to skirt Crimea by seventy or so miles- well out of the

effective range of Russian air defenses in the region. The target is Novorossiysk,

and the Russian naval base located there. After the sinking of the Moskva,

the Russian Black Sea fleet has moved its largest surface combat vessels here in order

to keep them out of range of western anti-ship weapons provided to Ukraine.

The AWACS aircraft have shadowed the formation,

sweeping the skies with their powerful long-range radar. Their job is to look for enemy fighters,

thus allowing the accompanying F-22s to operate without their own search radars on,

ensuring their stealth. However, the powerful radar is being picked up by Russian sensors in

Crimea- the Russians now know that an attack is coming. NATO hasn't deviated in any significant

way from its pre-announced patrol routes for months, and the only reason an AWACS aircraft

could be approaching Russian shores is if it's backing up a major air attack.

It's not long before the AWACs planes pick up the signature of multiple Russian

fighters taking to the skies. The data is relayed via datalink to the Raptors,

who stand ready to greet the Russian challengers.

It's now time for the Superhornets to do their part. Skirting along the very

edge of Russian long-range radar, the Hornets fire off their MALDs one by one. In minutes,

forty of the big missiles are screaming straight at mainland Russia. But the weapons aren't bombs-

the Miniature Air Launched Decoy is an advanced drone that can perfectly replicate the radar

return of nearly any aircraft in NATO's arsenal. Currently the decoys are spoofing Russian radar

returns to convince them a flight of B-52 bombers is incoming from the direction of Turkey, escorted

by F-18s. This is a credible threat- the US maintains multiple air bases in one of NATO's most

geographically strategic allies. Payloads away, the Hornets turn around and head for the Bush.

Russian long-range air defense radar in Crimea has spotted the real B-52s, but the

appearance of a flight of B-52s escorted by F-18s incoming from Turkey is a more pressing threat.

Russian ground crews have been scrambling to put three squadrons of intereceptors

into the air. Now a squadron consisting of a combination of Mig-29s and Mig-31s are wheeling

south from air bases in Crimea and the Russian mainland. The jets are in full afterburner mode,

which consumes fuel at a frightening rate but pushes them to supersonic speeds. They must get to

within 70 nautical miles of the incoming B-52s so they can intercept them with their long range

air-to-air missiles Their R-77-1s, NATO codename “Adder”, are inferior in range to their American

AIM 120 counterparts, with only a range of 68 miles. This is roughly the range of the

expected Harpoons carried by the American B-52s, who have a range of around 75 nautical miles.

Russia always doubted the US would respond with its own nukes,

and this only left one possible target for American vengeance- the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

An alert reaches the Russian vessels in waters just off Noborossiysk. The

fleet currently consists of the Guided Missile Frigates Ladnyy, Admiral Essen,

and Admiral Makarov, which has taken role of fleet flagship after the loss of the

Moskva. Landing ships Nikolay Filchenkov, Orsk, Azov, Novocherkassk, Caesar Kunikov,

and Yamal are all at dock. The smaller Guided Missile Corvettes Vyshniy Volochyok, Samum,

Ingushetiya, and Grayvoron take up stations around the frigates. This is the bulk of the Russian

Black Sea Fleet currently in operation, with a few vessels on duty in the Meditarrenan. US

Navy submarines and F-15 Strike Eagles from Europe are already enroute to destroy them.

The entire fleet turns with their noses parallel to the incoming threat. This

will allow each ship's CIWS systems maximum opportunity to engage any

missiles that penetrate long range air defenses.

S-300 and S-400 batteries along Russia's eastern Black Sea coast open fire on the

incoming decoys. The decoys are easily within the 242 mile range of both systems for targets

with a radar return as large as a B-52. The number of incomings is overwhelming,

this is a major American air assault, and the air defense batteries expend most of

their missiles. The vessels of the Black Sea Fleet opt to let the shore units do

their work and focus on defending against any aircraft or missiles which slip past.

American B-2 stealth bombers open up with AGM-158 C LRASM anti-ship

missiles. The planned replacement for the Harpoon, the US military still operates

only a small number of the weapons, and only recently adapted them for use with

the B-2. Each of the four B-2s unleash a volley of 16 of these low-observable anti-ship missiles,

and Russian radar screens light up as they detect the 64 incoming missiles.

The attack is a complete surprise, and the missiles are moving so fast that shore-based

air defense batteries have no chance of catching the missiles before they reach their targets.

The fleet is on its own to defend against this attack, but the LRASM

low-observable feature are making the missiles difficult to target. To make matters worse,

the missiles now dive towards the ocean, flying just above the water as they scream towards

their targets. The missiles are within several dozen nautical miles before Russian radars can

not just detect them, but target them. The Russian ships immediately fire off

decoys- these immediately begin to fire off electronic signals meant to be more powerful

than those emitted by real vessels, thus luring in anti-ship missiles to strike them instead.

However, the American missiles are built with optical target recognition systems,

ensuring that the weapons can tell the difference between decoys and the real thing.

At just over three dozen miles, the Russian radars can finally target the LRASMs,

and the frigates are the first to open up with long range surface-to-air missiles.

It's like trying to hit a speeding bullet with another bullet, and the LRASMs can be

difficult to target. Of the 64 incoming missiles, 18 are struck and destroyed.

With just miles left to go, the corvettes open up

with short range Komar missiles. These missiles have a much smaller warhead,

but several manage to strike true- another eight LRASMs are knocked out of action.

The American weapons now enter the terminal attack phase and suddenly pitch up,

climbing high into the sky. More Russian anti-air missiles fly out to try to

swat them out of the air. Another six LRASMSs turn to fiery wrecks.

Each missile identifies its own target, prioritizing the larger

frigates. The sky fills with tungsten from the frigate's CIWS systems. Ten

more LRASMs are destroyed before striking true, but 22 LRASMs find their targets.

The 1,000 pound warheads slam into the Russian frigates. The Admiral Essen takes 10 of the

missiles- she's already destroyed by the time the last three slam into her but the missiles

aren't smart enough to identify lethal battle damage. The Ladnyy only takes two and remains

afloat with moderate damage. Admiral Makarov takes six LRASMs to the deck. The rest of the

weapons either strike the smaller corvettes or explode in the water, missing their targets.

Only two of Russia's frigates remain alive, along with three of the Corvettes. Two Russian

ships are quickly sinking below the waves. The attacking B-2s turn around and head for home,

visible on Russian radar only for a moment as each bomber opened its bay doors.

To the south of the fleet, the Russian interceptors are now in range to engage

the MALDs and open up with R-77 missiles, ripple firing at the incoming formation.

Each missile will find its own target, and with such a dense concentration of forces,

should have no problem striking true. The Russian fighters are rapidly turning and burning for home,

fully aware that American AIM 160s have longer range then them- the lead Hornets

should have opened fire by now, yet strangely no incoming missile threats are detected on radar.

Reporting this to ground control, Russian commanders are beginning to grow suspicious.

A second wave of interceptors is redirected west, towards the incoming flight of eight B-52s.

This happens to put them directly on course to intercept the B-2s, who are slow and vulnerable.

In full afterburner, the Russian fighters will soon be in range of not just detection,

but targeting of the stealthy aircraft. Right now their focus are the big American bombers,

who are completely vulnerable and helpless. Radar detects no accompanying fighters,

which makes the Russian pilots very nervous- there are only two possibilities here:

the 8 B-52s are actually decoys and the main attack is the 40 aircraft formation to the south,

or the attack from the south is the decoy and this is the real deal. If the latter is the case,

there can only be one reason why radar isn't detecting any accompanying fighters- the US

has put its F-35s or F-22s into the fight. The intercepting fighters get their answer

shortly after entering the Black Sea. The F-22s have skirted out into the Black Sea and away from

shore, keeping out of range of shore-based radar which can detect them within 100 or so miles. The

Russian interceptors have even weaker radar, and can only begin to pick up traces of the stealth

fighters within 50 or so miles, but can only get good targeting locks from a few dozen miles away.

The F-22s turn on their own targeting radar long enough to get a solid lock

on the incoming Russian Migs. On their radars, the Russians detect only a brief blip as each

F-22 rapidly volley-fires their AIM-120 Ds. The AIM-120 Ds have a classified range

easily in excess of 100 nautical miles, and the Migs don't even get within range

of the B-52s before they are forced to take evasive actions from the incoming missiles.

Each missile has flown high into the sky immediately after firing, and now plummets

down on the Russian fighters. Each pilot tries to notch the incoming missiles, but

most of them strike true. The surviving fighters are forced to turn around at full afterburner,

but the Raptors have already loosed another volley of AIMs at them to encourage them to retreat. The

only way to defeat American stealth fighters is to overwhelm them with numbers and 'absorb' their

long range missile attacks. Once at close range the Raptors would have been at a disadvantage-

but the Hornet launched decoys fooled the Russians into splitting up their forces.

With skies free of enemy fighters, the B-52s are

safe to get within 75 nautical miles of the surviving Russian vessels and loose

their Harpoons. 96 anti-ship missiles are soon screaming towards the Russian ships.

The Frigates immediately respond with their long-range air-defense missiles. The Harpoons

are far older technology and don't have the same low-observability features of the LRASM. Long

range air defenses manage to take out twenty of the incoming missiles. As the Harpoons get within

a dozen miles of the ships, the corvettes open up with their shorter range missiles. Each ship

is rapidly volley-firing their entire missile stock, knowing that their lives depend on it.

Twenty more of the Harpoons are knocked out before they get in range of the fleet's

CIWS. Tungsten once more fills the sky as a wall of lead rises up to greet the

incoming missiles. Twenty two more Harpoons are knocked out either by missiles or CIWS.

Decoys manage to lure away a dozen of the Harpoons, but 22 of the surviving missiles

strike true. The 500 pound warheads smash into the corvettes and frigates,

most of which have already been damaged by the LRASMs. Despite having half the warhead

of the previous rocket volley, the blitz of missiles is lethal.

As the B-52s head for home, Russia sends up more interceptors to take on the flight of

MALDS to the south. The decoys are easily blown out of the sky by air and ground based defenses-

but all it does is expend precious resources Russia can no longer easily replenish. Their

job is done- they succeeded in diverting Russian attention south and splitting up its interceptors.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed- all that remains is four submarines which Russia

doesn't dare put to sea for fear of being targeted and a compliment of landing and support craft. The

surface combat vessels were the important targets, and Russia has suffered an irreplaceable loss.

In the span of an hour it went from the dominant military power in the Black Sea, to the weakest.

Blockades of Ukrainian ports are no longer possible, and Russia has been punished for its

use of nuclear weapons with the loss of hundreds of sailors and billions of dollars in hardware.

What remains to be seen is if the deterrent has been effective, or if President Vlaydimr

Putin will resort to even greater use of nuclear weapons as retaliation. If so,

the United States stands ready with its allies to respond with either conventional or nuclear power.

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