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Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu andĀ
the commander of occupation troops in UkraineĀ Ā
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Sergey Surovikin announced yesterday thatĀ
the withdrawal of the Russian group of troopsĀ Ā
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from the city of Kherson begins. Obviously,Ā
the Russian aggressors have no credibility,Ā Ā
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but I would remind you that itĀ
is not Ukraine that adjusts toĀ Ā
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their statements - it is their statementsĀ
that are a reaction to Ukraine's actions.
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And these actions are very simple andĀ
clear. The AFU continues to implementĀ Ā
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its operation to liberate the entireĀ
Kherson region and Kherson in particular.Ā Ā
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This operation is successful, and whateverĀ
intrigues and cunning games the enemy mayĀ Ā
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try to play, it is only a matter ofĀ
time before the city is liberated.
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Liberating Kherson is very important.Ā
But rightly the questions arise:Ā Ā
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what will this change on the front andĀ
what should Ukrainians be prepared for?
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The first is the release of Russian troops. TheseĀ
are not just troops, but cadre and professionalĀ Ā
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units. I am talking about units of the MarinesĀ
and paratroopers. This is about 10,000 soldiers,Ā Ā
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maybe more. Russia will receive not thousandsĀ
of inexperienced and unmotivated recruits, butĀ Ā
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thousands of men hardened in months-long battlesĀ
in the steppes of Kherson. This force cannot beĀ Ā
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ignored. They will probably be transferred to theĀ
Zaporizhzhya direction and to the eastern front.
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The good news here is that UkrainianĀ
units are also being released.Ā Ā
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Yes, no doubt some forces will remain in KhersonĀ
and along the river bank. Plus the rear units,Ā Ā
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but the remaining brigades and battalions willĀ
be able to be redeployed to both the eastern andĀ Ā
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northern borders of Ukraine. In addition, no oneĀ
has ruled out the threat from the army of Belarus.
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The second is that the occupiers will startĀ
shelling Kherson on a regular basis. The cityĀ Ā
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will in fact become a front-line city. The enemyĀ
will be able to hit it not only with artillery,Ā Ā
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but even with mortars. ThisĀ
is all a great danger to theĀ Ā
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civilian population and constant anxietyĀ
and risks for the Ukrainian defenders.
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Third, the Russian Armed Forces will getĀ
experienced soldiers or future juniorĀ Ā
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commanders. It is no secret that the RussiansĀ
are as bad as possible with junior commanders:Ā Ā
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they simply do not exist. There is no one who canĀ
train hundreds of thousands of mobilized soldiers,Ā Ā
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and no one who can be put in chargeĀ
of squads, platoons, and companies.
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Those cadres of the Russian military who haveĀ
been fighting on the Kherson steppes for longĀ Ā
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months have experience and an understanding of howĀ
the AFU fights. They can already be appointed asĀ Ā
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squad leaders or, after an accelerated officerĀ
course, as platoon and company commanders.Ā Ā
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Yes, the quality of such commanders will beĀ
worse than that of Ukrainians who take commandĀ Ā
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courses in the West. Nor should we forgetĀ
the Russian Armed Forces' lack of motivationĀ Ā
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and flexibility. But all the same, even such aĀ
half-measure can strengthen the occupation forces.
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One way or another, the liberation of KhersonĀ
will be an important event in this war,Ā Ā
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a great victory for the AFU and anotherĀ
disgrace for the Russian Armed Forces.Ā Ā
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But we should still keep in mind the factorsĀ
described above. Informed means armed!
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