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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:30,980 --> 00:00:35,460 This white wilderness, this emptiness, is the North Pole. 2 00:00:36,940 --> 00:00:40,740 I'm standing in the middle of a frozen ocean. 3 00:00:41,860 --> 00:00:46,739 Beneath my feet and for over 500 miles in every direction, 4 00:00:46,740 --> 00:00:49,580 there are several metres of ice. 5 00:00:50,820 --> 00:00:53,859 But something significant is likely to happen here, 6 00:00:53,860 --> 00:00:55,820 at the North Pole, soon. 7 00:00:57,300 --> 00:01:00,939 Chances are that some time, within the next few decades, 8 00:01:00,940 --> 00:01:07,259 perhaps even as soon as 2020, there will be open water here 9 00:01:07,260 --> 00:01:10,940 for the first time in human recorded history. 10 00:01:13,220 --> 00:01:17,299 The Arctic and Antarctic are changing. 11 00:01:17,300 --> 00:01:21,419 Enormous masses of ice that have been frozen for thousands of years 12 00:01:21,420 --> 00:01:23,540 are breaking apart and melting away. 13 00:01:37,100 --> 00:01:41,579 Ice scientists are going to extremes to find out exactly 14 00:01:41,580 --> 00:01:42,979 what's going on. 15 00:01:42,980 --> 00:01:45,460 For them, these are exciting times. 16 00:01:47,060 --> 00:01:49,500 But the transformation that's being seen here will be felt 17 00:01:49,501 --> 00:01:52,180 far beyond the polar wilderness. 18 00:01:58,580 --> 00:01:59,740 In this programme, 19 00:01:59,741 --> 00:02:04,379 I'll be trying to understand what these changes mean, not just to the 20 00:02:04,380 --> 00:02:09,380 wildlife and people that live around the Poles, but for the whole planet. 21 00:02:21,260 --> 00:02:25,380 I'm starting my journey in the Arctic, the far north of our planet. 22 00:02:29,540 --> 00:02:32,859 It's still very cold outside by most people's standards, 23 00:02:32,860 --> 00:02:36,059 but the Arctic has been warming fast, 24 00:02:36,060 --> 00:02:38,859 twice as fast as the rest of our planet. 25 00:02:38,860 --> 00:02:42,379 My first mission is to find out what effect 26 00:02:42,380 --> 00:02:45,019 that's having on the animals. 27 00:02:45,020 --> 00:02:47,939 Although first, we have to find them. 28 00:02:47,940 --> 00:02:50,739 It's April in Svalbard. 29 00:02:50,740 --> 00:02:54,099 We are 1,000 miles north of the Arctic Circle, 30 00:02:54,100 --> 00:02:56,700 in search of the region's top predator. 31 00:03:07,380 --> 00:03:11,340 We need to travel away from the land and out over the frozen sea. 32 00:03:18,340 --> 00:03:20,620 There's some tracks right beneath us. 33 00:03:26,660 --> 00:03:27,820 Over there. 34 00:03:31,060 --> 00:03:33,939 I'm with a Norwegian team, 35 00:03:33,940 --> 00:03:37,740 which is giving the polar bears of Svalbard their yearly health check. 36 00:03:41,100 --> 00:03:42,420 She's under us now. 37 00:03:43,460 --> 00:03:45,260 I'll come round for a clean shot. 38 00:03:51,300 --> 00:03:54,939 The team works together to give an anaesthetic injection 39 00:03:54,940 --> 00:03:57,580 from a dart gun without hurting the bear. 40 00:03:59,220 --> 00:04:01,060 It takes tremendous skill. 41 00:04:05,420 --> 00:04:07,020 Ah, you've got it. 42 00:04:11,940 --> 00:04:14,660 I'll just back off until she's asleep. 43 00:04:24,820 --> 00:04:27,219 Nobody likes to see a magnificent 44 00:04:27,220 --> 00:04:32,019 animal like a polar bear lolling about unconscious on the ice, 45 00:04:32,020 --> 00:04:34,339 but it's only by darting them 46 00:04:34,340 --> 00:04:36,539 in this way and keeping check on them 47 00:04:36,540 --> 00:04:39,099 year after year, that we can be sure we know 48 00:04:39,100 --> 00:04:43,380 what is happening to them and the population of polar bears as a whole. 49 00:04:44,860 --> 00:04:48,219 Over the last 30 years, many teams have been seeing 50 00:04:48,220 --> 00:04:52,019 the condition of their local bears deteriorate. 51 00:04:52,020 --> 00:04:53,740 Although not every bear is suffering. 52 00:05:03,940 --> 00:05:06,939 How much? 96, there. 53 00:05:06,940 --> 00:05:11,899 And 102 here, so that's 197, yeah. 54 00:05:11,900 --> 00:05:12,940 Is that good? 55 00:05:15,020 --> 00:05:17,779 It's not too bad, it's a bit above average. 56 00:05:17,780 --> 00:05:20,579 So she's a bear in a good condition for Svalbard. 57 00:05:20,580 --> 00:05:27,019 The trouble is that if this was underweight, she would be in trouble. 58 00:05:27,020 --> 00:05:31,819 Not only from her own point of view, but from the point of her cubs, 59 00:05:31,820 --> 00:05:35,579 because an underweight female gives birth to underweight cubs 60 00:05:35,580 --> 00:05:39,299 and underweight cubs have a great problem of surviving 61 00:05:39,300 --> 00:05:42,900 their difficult first year in these circumstances. 62 00:05:44,940 --> 00:05:49,259 It can be minus 40 degrees Centigrade when polar bear cubs emerge 63 00:05:49,260 --> 00:05:51,459 at the start of the Arctic spring, 64 00:05:51,460 --> 00:05:53,940 from their dens where they were born. 65 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:09,060 This mother hasn't eaten for half a year. 66 00:06:11,140 --> 00:06:15,419 She and her cubs need to fatten up fast over the next few months and 67 00:06:15,420 --> 00:06:19,780 their chances of survival depend on what's happening beneath their feet. 68 00:06:23,820 --> 00:06:26,979 These polar bears aren't walking on land. 69 00:06:26,980 --> 00:06:30,580 They're roaming across the frozen surface of the sea. 70 00:06:34,180 --> 00:06:36,540 And the bear's food lives under the ice. 71 00:06:50,100 --> 00:06:54,260 Ringed seals are hunted by polar bears. 72 00:06:55,420 --> 00:07:01,459 In fact, in some parts, polar bears eat almost nothing else. 73 00:07:01,460 --> 00:07:06,580 So, it's very understandable that this mother ringed seal... 74 00:07:07,980 --> 00:07:11,940 who's looking at me now, should be a little apprehensive. 75 00:07:15,660 --> 00:07:19,380 That pup of hers is only about three or four days old... 76 00:07:21,740 --> 00:07:27,060 and the pup won't be able to swim for another two or three days. 77 00:07:29,100 --> 00:07:33,179 Seals have good reason to be nervous around their holes. 78 00:07:33,180 --> 00:07:36,259 They need the holes to breathe when the sea is frozen, 79 00:07:36,260 --> 00:07:38,540 but this makes them easy to find. 80 00:07:40,620 --> 00:07:46,180 Polar bears can sniff out seal holes, even if they're covered in snow. 81 00:07:52,500 --> 00:07:54,860 Spring is the best hunting season. 82 00:07:57,380 --> 00:08:00,419 This mother's found a food store under the snow 83 00:08:00,420 --> 00:08:03,260 that was probably made by an Arctic fox. 84 00:08:05,180 --> 00:08:07,139 It's a time of plenty now, 85 00:08:07,140 --> 00:08:10,099 but the bear family need to make the best of it 86 00:08:10,100 --> 00:08:13,420 because the good times are about to come to an end. 87 00:08:18,780 --> 00:08:20,219 As the weather warms, 88 00:08:20,220 --> 00:08:24,779 the ice beneath the bears' feet starts to break up and then melt. 89 00:08:24,780 --> 00:08:29,540 And as the ice dwindles, so do the bears' chances of a successful hunt. 90 00:08:32,820 --> 00:08:37,779 Most of the ice is lost over these shallow coastal waters, 91 00:08:37,780 --> 00:08:39,220 where most of the seals live. 92 00:08:44,740 --> 00:08:49,059 It's now summer and these bears have a choice ... take their chances 93 00:08:49,060 --> 00:08:53,100 on the shrinking ice floes, or make for the safety of the land. 94 00:08:58,460 --> 00:09:00,260 It's a case of sink or swim. 95 00:09:08,300 --> 00:09:10,619 Bears have always gone hungry in the summer, 96 00:09:10,620 --> 00:09:13,179 but the length of time when there's enough ice for them 97 00:09:13,180 --> 00:09:17,740 to go hunting is getting shorter and shorter, across much of the Arctic. 98 00:09:21,140 --> 00:09:24,459 This is hitting cubs particularly hard, 99 00:09:24,460 --> 00:09:28,980 because they can't survive for as long without feeding as their mother. 100 00:09:30,620 --> 00:09:34,500 Cubs that were born underweight are at the greatest risk. 101 00:09:44,100 --> 00:09:48,019 This mother and her cubs may well not get another meal 102 00:09:48,020 --> 00:09:50,939 until the sea freezes again in winter. 103 00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:55,699 There's not much to eat on land and the fact is that the longer the cubs 104 00:09:55,700 --> 00:10:00,220 have to wait until the ice returns, the more likely they are to die. 105 00:10:03,500 --> 00:10:07,499 Longer summers with no ice are probably the main reason why 106 00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:10,420 many polar bear populations are dropping. 107 00:10:18,700 --> 00:10:22,779 To help monitor bears into the future, this female is being fitted 108 00:10:22,780 --> 00:10:25,500 with a radio collar to track her movements. 109 00:10:29,820 --> 00:10:33,019 It's an extraordinary sensation to be 110 00:10:33,020 --> 00:10:35,939 so close to such a powerful animal. 111 00:10:35,940 --> 00:10:39,099 With luck, carrying that collar, 112 00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:41,420 she will have more years to go yet... 113 00:10:42,620 --> 00:10:45,259 and be telling us a great deal 114 00:10:45,260 --> 00:10:47,739 about herself and the rest 115 00:10:47,740 --> 00:10:50,339 of the race of polar bears, as they 116 00:10:50,340 --> 00:10:52,940 face this very uncertain future. 117 00:11:00,340 --> 00:11:03,459 The future of the ice cover on the sea isn't just 118 00:11:03,460 --> 00:11:04,979 an issue for the animals. 119 00:11:04,980 --> 00:11:07,299 It's a big concern for the people 120 00:11:07,300 --> 00:11:08,899 who live in the Arctic 121 00:11:08,900 --> 00:11:11,260 and travel across the ice every day. 122 00:11:19,820 --> 00:11:24,299 David Iqaqrialu is an Inuit from the village of Clyde River 123 00:11:24,300 --> 00:11:25,900 in the Canadian Far North. 124 00:11:31,900 --> 00:11:36,459 There are very few roads up here, so David and his community, 125 00:11:36,460 --> 00:11:40,460 like most Inuit people, have always travelled across the frozen sea. 126 00:11:42,380 --> 00:11:47,019 Dog sleds are the safest way to get around because the dogs feel 127 00:11:47,020 --> 00:11:49,780 thin ice underfoot and won't lead travellers into trouble. 128 00:11:53,540 --> 00:11:55,980 Old-timers, like David, know the ice is as well as we know 129 00:11:55,981 --> 00:11:58,740 the streets in our local neighbourhood. 130 00:12:02,460 --> 00:12:03,659 Every spring, 131 00:12:03,660 --> 00:12:07,580 cracks have always formed in the same places at the same time. 132 00:12:09,020 --> 00:12:13,340 It's going to be big very soon. After two weeks maybe... 133 00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:17,100 it will be more open. 134 00:12:18,460 --> 00:12:22,419 But now, cracks are appearing where they never did before. 135 00:12:22,420 --> 00:12:26,780 So, David and his friend, Laimikie, have taken on a new job. 136 00:12:28,460 --> 00:12:31,819 They are using special GPS units to record the position 137 00:12:31,820 --> 00:12:34,420 of new cracks or weak ice. 138 00:12:36,620 --> 00:12:38,379 These findings will be used 139 00:12:38,380 --> 00:12:40,379 by locals for their own safety, 140 00:12:40,380 --> 00:12:42,700 but they're also being studied by ice scientists, 141 00:12:42,701 --> 00:12:47,819 who want to predict how the ice will change in years to come. 142 00:12:54,620 --> 00:12:59,099 The Inuit are keen to know what the future holds too 143 00:12:59,100 --> 00:13:01,939 because they've seen with their own eyes the changes 144 00:13:01,940 --> 00:13:04,500 that the scientists have seen from space. 145 00:13:06,300 --> 00:13:09,219 This satellite photo from 1980 shows the Arctic Ocean 146 00:13:09,220 --> 00:13:14,099 at the end of the summer, when ice cover is at its minimum. 147 00:13:14,100 --> 00:13:18,780 Since then, there's been a 30% drop in the area covered by ice. 148 00:13:21,420 --> 00:13:26,259 But these images can't tell us about changes to the most important factor, 149 00:13:26,260 --> 00:13:28,900 the thickness of the ice. 150 00:13:32,500 --> 00:13:34,859 Measuring thickness across the whole ocean 151 00:13:34,860 --> 00:13:37,739 was beyond scientists for many years, 152 00:13:37,740 --> 00:13:41,180 until help came from an unexpected source. 153 00:13:58,220 --> 00:14:02,939 The Arctic Ocean is of huge military importance, as it's the shortest 154 00:14:02,940 --> 00:14:04,980 route between North America and Russia. 155 00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:15,179 Since the late 1950s, British, US and Russian submarines 156 00:14:15,180 --> 00:14:18,420 have been patrolling the Arctic Ocean. 157 00:14:20,060 --> 00:14:24,459 But as well as looking out for enemy activity, 158 00:14:24,460 --> 00:14:27,339 they've also been measuring the thickness of the ice, 159 00:14:27,340 --> 00:14:29,820 critical when looking for a place to surface. 160 00:14:33,460 --> 00:14:36,579 When scientists got permission to look at the submarine crew's records, 161 00:14:36,580 --> 00:14:40,819 they discovered that the ice has been thinning fast. 162 00:14:40,820 --> 00:14:44,060 In fact, it's nearly halved in thickness since 1980. 163 00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:50,539 Across most of the Arctic Ocean, 164 00:14:50,540 --> 00:14:53,460 there are now just a couple of metres of ice. 165 00:14:57,860 --> 00:15:02,259 It's so thin that it could melt away almost entirely in the summertime, 166 00:15:02,260 --> 00:15:04,740 and that includes the ice at the North Pole. 167 00:15:06,180 --> 00:15:09,299 If current trends continue, then there will be 168 00:15:09,300 --> 00:15:11,219 open ocean here by summer's end, 169 00:15:11,220 --> 00:15:13,500 some time within the next few decades. 170 00:15:16,940 --> 00:15:20,139 So, the days of the Arctic Ocean being covered 171 00:15:20,140 --> 00:15:23,219 by a continuous sheet of ice seem to have passed. 172 00:15:23,220 --> 00:15:26,659 Whether or not that's a good or bad thing, of course, 173 00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:28,500 depends on your point of view. 174 00:15:32,060 --> 00:15:34,779 Nobody has had a better view of the changes to the Arctic Ocean 175 00:15:34,780 --> 00:15:39,619 than the people of Barrow, the most northerly town in Alaska. 176 00:15:39,620 --> 00:15:43,339 The people here have always survived by hunting on the frozen sea 177 00:15:43,340 --> 00:15:45,940 and they celebrate this at a festival every year. 178 00:15:48,140 --> 00:15:51,979 The blanket toss was once the best way to spot distant animals to hunt, 179 00:15:51,980 --> 00:15:56,419 as lifelong resident Lewis Brewer explains. 180 00:15:56,420 --> 00:15:59,579 When we throw ourselves up into the blanket, you know, 181 00:15:59,580 --> 00:16:03,419 you get that much more of an 'Ahh' of seeing further and further out, 182 00:16:03,420 --> 00:16:06,099 so sometimes, you'll jump 15-20 feet in the air, 183 00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:09,380 and hopefully, you're being caught right back into the blanket. 184 00:16:11,380 --> 00:16:13,500 I'm OK! 185 00:16:15,180 --> 00:16:17,859 But the old way of life is under threat. 186 00:16:17,860 --> 00:16:22,699 When Lewis was young, the sea stayed frozen to the horizon until July, 187 00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:25,699 and some ice remained off-shore all summer. 188 00:16:25,700 --> 00:16:27,739 But now, it's breaking up in June 189 00:16:27,740 --> 00:16:32,019 and melting away completely for two or three months. 190 00:16:32,020 --> 00:16:35,819 I used to go out on the ice all the time at this time of the year, 191 00:16:35,820 --> 00:16:40,900 but we can't do that any more, cos there's no more ice. 192 00:16:42,340 --> 00:16:46,739 Lewis can also see that the loss of sea ice is affecting 193 00:16:46,740 --> 00:16:48,820 the animals he hunts for a living. 194 00:16:50,300 --> 00:16:54,019 Since 2007, something very strange has been happening 195 00:16:54,020 --> 00:16:57,100 on this stretch of coastline, close to Barrow. 196 00:17:00,820 --> 00:17:05,379 Mother walruses, confused by the lack of ice, are crowding onto the land 197 00:17:05,380 --> 00:17:06,540 with their pups. 198 00:17:08,180 --> 00:17:10,579 This very tight crowding isn't normal 199 00:17:10,580 --> 00:17:13,980 and it's caused many youngsters to be crushed to death. 200 00:17:16,580 --> 00:17:19,699 Many Arctic animals are threatened by the changing conditions 201 00:17:19,700 --> 00:17:24,259 and that's also bad news for the traditional hunters. 202 00:17:24,260 --> 00:17:28,180 But the ice loss could be good news for some people. 203 00:17:32,220 --> 00:17:34,899 There are trillions of dollars' worth of oil 204 00:17:34,900 --> 00:17:36,899 and gas under the Arctic Ocean. 205 00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:38,939 But the only way to get to them, 206 00:17:38,940 --> 00:17:43,219 until now, has been by building expensive artificial islands, 207 00:17:43,220 --> 00:17:44,419 like this. 208 00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:46,179 But if the sea ice goes, 209 00:17:46,180 --> 00:17:49,339 it will be much easier to drill for the huge riches below. 210 00:17:49,340 --> 00:17:53,699 So, the countries that surround the Arctic are scrambling 211 00:17:53,700 --> 00:17:55,100 to stake their claims. 212 00:18:06,460 --> 00:18:11,939 This daring attempt by the Russians to claim the disputed seabed 213 00:18:11,940 --> 00:18:15,259 at the North Pole in 2007 caused fury among the competing countries 214 00:18:15,260 --> 00:18:18,900 and it's unlikely to be the last such dispute. 215 00:18:20,900 --> 00:18:23,499 The Arctic has never been so important 216 00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:26,100 and not just because of its resources. 217 00:18:29,100 --> 00:18:30,459 The North-West passage, 218 00:18:30,460 --> 00:18:34,499 a legendary sea route around the north of Canada and Alaska, cleared 219 00:18:34,500 --> 00:18:39,739 of ice in the summer of 2007 for the first time since records began. 220 00:18:39,740 --> 00:18:42,619 This promises a much faster 221 00:18:42,620 --> 00:18:47,300 and cheaper shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. 222 00:18:51,620 --> 00:18:54,580 And some wildlife could benefit from an ice-free Arctic too. 223 00:18:59,740 --> 00:19:03,819 Bowhead whales are one of just a few whales that can live 224 00:19:03,820 --> 00:19:06,940 year-round in the Arctic because they have no dorsal fin. 225 00:19:09,140 --> 00:19:11,340 This means they can come up for air in small spaces 226 00:19:11,341 --> 00:19:14,380 and travel easily under the ice. 227 00:19:15,980 --> 00:19:19,419 Their unique body shape used to mean that the Arctic whales had 228 00:19:19,420 --> 00:19:23,619 the seas to themselves for most of the year. 229 00:19:23,620 --> 00:19:26,500 But now, some cousins from down south are moving in. 230 00:19:33,940 --> 00:19:37,259 Killer whales are now a much more common sight in the Arctic. 231 00:19:37,260 --> 00:19:41,899 Their tall fins make it difficult for them to travel under ice, 232 00:19:41,900 --> 00:19:45,939 but the longer summers mean they can travel much further north 233 00:19:45,940 --> 00:19:48,540 and make the most of the rich Arctic seas. 234 00:19:55,420 --> 00:19:58,379 For animals and people, 235 00:19:58,380 --> 00:20:02,060 it will be those that can adapt who will thrive in a changing Arctic. 236 00:20:11,220 --> 00:20:14,139 But the loss of sea ice isn't just an issue for the Arctic, 237 00:20:14,140 --> 00:20:18,460 because the state of the ice affects the climate of the whole planet. 238 00:20:21,540 --> 00:20:26,419 Because it's white, the ice reflects up to 90% of the Sun's energy. 239 00:20:26,420 --> 00:20:29,899 This is called the albedo effect and it's why 240 00:20:29,900 --> 00:20:34,140 we often see heat haze in the Arctic, even when the air feels cold. 241 00:20:40,940 --> 00:20:44,859 The frozen Arctic Ocean acts as a huge reflector, 242 00:20:44,860 --> 00:20:48,459 bouncing back the Sun's heat into space. 243 00:20:48,460 --> 00:20:51,819 Throughout history, that has helped to cool the planet, 244 00:20:51,820 --> 00:20:55,780 but when the ice melts, it's a different story. 245 00:21:01,340 --> 00:21:07,019 Because sea water is dark, it absorbs most of the Sun's heat. 246 00:21:07,020 --> 00:21:10,699 In the Arctic, this can trigger a chain reaction, as the warming 247 00:21:10,700 --> 00:21:15,460 water melts more ice, exposing more water to the Sun's heat. 248 00:21:21,020 --> 00:21:24,739 This cycle of warming, as huge areas start to absorb rather than 249 00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:28,979 reflect heat, is the main reason why the Arctic, a region the size 250 00:21:28,980 --> 00:21:33,420 of North America, is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth. 251 00:21:38,700 --> 00:21:41,579 So, melting sea ice is a big issue. 252 00:21:41,580 --> 00:21:44,219 But there's another kind of ice that could have an even more 253 00:21:44,220 --> 00:21:46,140 dramatic impact on our world. 254 00:21:47,500 --> 00:21:49,860 The ice that is found on land. 255 00:21:52,580 --> 00:21:54,699 This is fresh water ice, 256 00:21:54,700 --> 00:21:58,580 formed from thousands of years of accumulated snowfall. 257 00:22:04,740 --> 00:22:10,659 This is the front of a glacier, quite a small one, believe it or not. 258 00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:13,139 Glaciers are like rivers of frozen 259 00:22:13,140 --> 00:22:17,379 fresh water flowing across the surface of the land. 260 00:22:17,380 --> 00:22:20,499 This one, like most polar glaciers, 261 00:22:20,500 --> 00:22:24,979 is flowing down from a vast inland ice sheet. 262 00:22:24,980 --> 00:22:27,819 And it's what happens to those ice sheets 263 00:22:27,820 --> 00:22:31,300 that could radically alter the face of the planet. 264 00:22:32,580 --> 00:22:36,499 The Greenland ice sheet is by far the largest in the Arctic. 265 00:22:36,500 --> 00:22:38,499 It's two miles thick in places 266 00:22:38,500 --> 00:22:41,660 and six times the size of the United Kingdom. 267 00:22:48,980 --> 00:22:52,859 Every summer, some of the surface of the ice sheet melts, 268 00:22:52,860 --> 00:22:56,420 forming sapphire blue lakes of melt water. 269 00:22:57,980 --> 00:23:00,859 More and more of these lakes have been forming 270 00:23:00,860 --> 00:23:03,700 as Greenland has warmed over the last 20 years. 271 00:23:05,300 --> 00:23:09,179 This lake has grown over several weeks and now it's overflowing, 272 00:23:09,180 --> 00:23:11,620 carving a deep channel through the ice. 273 00:23:18,580 --> 00:23:21,699 A network of channels criss-crosses the ice sheet, 274 00:23:21,700 --> 00:23:24,820 but many of them come to an abrupt end. 275 00:23:36,060 --> 00:23:39,419 Huge holes, like this, can open up quite suddenly, 276 00:23:39,420 --> 00:23:41,740 draining the melt water away. 277 00:23:52,820 --> 00:23:56,939 Alun Hubbard is a glaciologist, studying the enormous power 278 00:23:56,940 --> 00:24:00,779 of these waterfalls, which are known as moulins. 279 00:24:00,780 --> 00:24:05,259 We've got this amazing moulin going off here today. 280 00:24:05,260 --> 00:24:09,979 The water's overflowing from the lake, which is beginning to drain. 281 00:24:09,980 --> 00:24:15,699 Tonnes of water cascading down this pipe that is, effectively, 282 00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:19,379 plummeting to the depths of the ice sheet through 283 00:24:19,380 --> 00:24:21,460 over a kilometre of vertical ice. 284 00:24:28,940 --> 00:24:32,139 Alun is here to study where the melt water goes 285 00:24:32,140 --> 00:24:35,339 and what effect it has on the remaining ice. 286 00:24:35,340 --> 00:24:39,700 To do that, he needs to find a moulin that has recently run dry. 287 00:24:46,020 --> 00:24:48,699 Just a week ago, there was a three-mile long, 288 00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:51,539 ten-metre deep lake here. 289 00:24:51,540 --> 00:24:55,059 The weight of all that water cracked the ice beneath 290 00:24:55,060 --> 00:24:59,580 and the late drained in just a few hours with incredible force. 291 00:25:04,740 --> 00:25:08,660 Thousand-tonne ice boulders were tossed about like dice. 292 00:25:15,740 --> 00:25:18,939 Alun's team have found the hole down which the lake disappeared 293 00:25:18,940 --> 00:25:21,459 and they want to have a closer look. 294 00:25:21,460 --> 00:25:24,540 It's not a job for anyone with a fear of heights. 295 00:25:31,340 --> 00:25:33,780 As you can see, it's dry up here, but if you listen, 296 00:25:33,781 --> 00:25:35,339 you can hear the thunder of, 297 00:25:35,340 --> 00:25:38,100 there's a lot of water entering it at some depth. 298 00:25:39,980 --> 00:25:44,779 Alun wants to place a sensor deep into the moulin to discover 299 00:25:44,780 --> 00:25:46,500 how much water is flowing through the ice. 300 00:25:52,700 --> 00:25:55,540 As they drop, they travel back in time. 301 00:25:57,660 --> 00:26:01,779 30 metres down and they reach ice formed from snow that fell 302 00:26:01,780 --> 00:26:04,500 10,000 years ago, in the last Ice Age. 303 00:26:07,660 --> 00:26:12,619 When this lake drained and the plug got pulled and the whole lot 304 00:26:12,620 --> 00:26:18,579 flushed down through here, this ice sheet, it rose by a metre 305 00:26:18,580 --> 00:26:23,019 as that water accessed the bed and forced, jacked up the ice sheet. 306 00:26:23,020 --> 00:26:25,139 So, we know that the water 307 00:26:25,140 --> 00:26:29,499 in this whole plumbing cavity system, down here, 308 00:26:29,500 --> 00:26:31,420 we know that shoots straight through that ice 309 00:26:31,421 --> 00:26:34,339 and actually hits the bed of the ice sheet. 310 00:26:34,340 --> 00:26:37,459 We've hit the water, I can see the water now. 311 00:26:37,460 --> 00:26:39,660 Great. Nice work. 312 00:26:42,580 --> 00:26:46,619 This daring experiment is measuring how the water flowing under 313 00:26:46,620 --> 00:26:50,019 the ice sheet affects the speed with which the glaciers 314 00:26:50,020 --> 00:26:52,699 flow from it, down to the sea. 315 00:26:52,700 --> 00:26:56,099 The theory is that the water is acting as a lubricant. 316 00:26:56,100 --> 00:26:59,780 So, the more water there is, the faster the glacier flows. 317 00:27:01,980 --> 00:27:06,179 To the naked eye, glaciers don't appear to move at all. 318 00:27:06,180 --> 00:27:07,460 But move, they do. 319 00:27:09,700 --> 00:27:13,820 These unique time-lapse images were captured over the last four years. 320 00:27:26,660 --> 00:27:30,459 Through long observations, we now know that Greenland's ice 321 00:27:30,460 --> 00:27:35,579 is flowing down to the sea twice as quickly as it was 20 years ago. 322 00:27:35,580 --> 00:27:38,939 The speed of the glaciers affects our sea levels 323 00:27:38,940 --> 00:27:43,300 because when they reach the water, they break apart into icebergs. 324 00:27:45,100 --> 00:27:47,100 Occasionally, a real mega-berg is born. 325 00:27:57,020 --> 00:27:59,820 This is the Store Glacier in May 2010. 326 00:28:56,140 --> 00:28:59,379 75 million tonnes of ice, that had been sitting on land 327 00:28:59,380 --> 00:29:02,460 for thousands of years, has broken away. 328 00:29:07,700 --> 00:29:10,859 Events like this have become increasingly common, 329 00:29:10,860 --> 00:29:14,260 as Greenland's glaciers flow faster into the sea. 330 00:29:26,980 --> 00:29:32,699 Every single one of these icebergs raises the sea level a small amount. 331 00:29:32,700 --> 00:29:37,179 Scientists monitoring the ice sheet predict that Greenland might add 332 00:29:37,180 --> 00:29:41,899 as much as a half metre to world sea levels by the end of the century, 333 00:29:41,900 --> 00:29:45,620 enough to swamp many of the world's low-lying islands. 334 00:30:07,540 --> 00:30:12,539 99% of the Arctic's fresh water ice is in Greenland. 335 00:30:12,540 --> 00:30:16,899 It's a staggeringly big ice sheet, but it's just a drop in the ocean 336 00:30:16,900 --> 00:30:20,900 compared to that at the southern end of our planet. 337 00:30:28,900 --> 00:30:33,219 In Antarctica, there is ten times more ice, 338 00:30:33,220 --> 00:30:36,540 by far the largest concentration of ice on Earth. 339 00:30:41,780 --> 00:30:44,739 Our exploration of the Antarctic only began 340 00:30:44,740 --> 00:30:46,780 a little over 100 years ago. 341 00:30:52,660 --> 00:30:56,619 The study of ice retreat here was unwittingly begun 342 00:30:56,620 --> 00:31:00,380 on an expedition led by the great early explorer Ernest Shackleton. 343 00:31:04,500 --> 00:31:09,939 In 1916, after their expedition boat was crushed and sunk by ice, 344 00:31:09,940 --> 00:31:15,540 Shackleton and two companions set off to summon help in a tiny boat. 345 00:31:18,340 --> 00:31:22,299 They sailed over 800 miles across the Southern Ocean 346 00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:25,980 to the island of South Georgia, on the edge of the Antarctic. 347 00:31:29,460 --> 00:31:33,419 Near starving and dressed in rags, the three men 348 00:31:33,420 --> 00:31:36,899 walked across the ice sheet at the centre of the island, knowing there 349 00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:40,580 was a whaling base on the opposite coast where they could summon help. 350 00:31:48,580 --> 00:31:52,339 This team of Royal Marines is re-tracing the steps 351 00:31:52,340 --> 00:31:55,820 of that journey in tribute to Shackleton and his men. 352 00:31:57,620 --> 00:32:02,379 But for all their efforts, they can't exactly copy the great walk 353 00:32:02,380 --> 00:32:03,660 because the ice is not as it was. 354 00:32:07,300 --> 00:32:09,859 A number of South Georgia's glaciers 355 00:32:09,860 --> 00:32:11,140 were photographed 356 00:32:11,141 --> 00:32:13,059 by Shackleton's cameraman. 357 00:32:13,060 --> 00:32:15,899 Frozen Planet saw a dramatic change 358 00:32:15,900 --> 00:32:18,660 when they returned 94 years later. 359 00:32:36,460 --> 00:32:41,379 Most of South Georgia's glaciers have shrunk since Shackleton's time 360 00:32:41,380 --> 00:32:42,979 and most of that has happened 361 00:32:42,980 --> 00:32:45,780 since I first went to the Antarctic 30 years ago. 362 00:32:47,340 --> 00:32:50,259 I've been to South Georgia several times 363 00:32:50,260 --> 00:32:53,780 and seen how greatly the glaciers there have changed. 364 00:32:58,020 --> 00:32:59,899 This photograph of a glacier 365 00:32:59,900 --> 00:33:01,899 reaching right down to the sea 366 00:33:01,900 --> 00:33:04,019 was taken just six years 367 00:33:04,020 --> 00:33:06,820 before I first visited in 1981. 368 00:33:08,020 --> 00:33:12,700 Now, that glacier has retreated by 400 metres away from the beach. 369 00:33:17,980 --> 00:33:22,339 Temperatures in South Georgia have risen sharply, but the Southern 370 00:33:22,340 --> 00:33:26,940 Hemisphere's most dramatic warming has happened a little further south. 371 00:33:28,460 --> 00:33:32,099 In recent years, stronger winds blowing over the Southern Ocean 372 00:33:32,100 --> 00:33:36,699 have brought warmer air to the 800 mile-long finger of land that forms 373 00:33:36,700 --> 00:33:40,220 the northern extremity of the Antarctic continent. 374 00:33:46,220 --> 00:33:50,939 Here, on the Antarctic Peninsula, the changing wind patterns have driven 375 00:33:50,940 --> 00:33:54,299 temperatures up by nearly three degrees Centigrade 376 00:33:54,300 --> 00:33:55,819 over the last 50 years. 377 00:33:55,820 --> 00:33:59,660 Ten times the average rate of the rest of the planet. 378 00:34:05,940 --> 00:34:10,540 The rapid warming is having a big effect on the birdlife. 379 00:34:25,780 --> 00:34:30,460 The Adelie penguin is the most southerly nesting of all penguins. 380 00:34:33,260 --> 00:34:36,459 And, like the polar bear, up in the north, 381 00:34:36,460 --> 00:34:40,060 their lives are dependent on the sea ice. 382 00:34:41,500 --> 00:34:44,619 Adelies spend their whole lives near ice. 383 00:34:44,620 --> 00:34:47,259 These birds have spent the winter feeding at the ice edge, 384 00:34:47,260 --> 00:34:49,739 but now it's spring 385 00:34:49,740 --> 00:34:54,100 and they've started a long trek over the frozen sea towards land. 386 00:35:01,700 --> 00:35:06,859 They're heading for areas of exposed rock, where they gather 387 00:35:06,860 --> 00:35:10,540 to breed, in colonies that can be over 100,000 strong. 388 00:35:27,100 --> 00:35:30,099 But it seems that Adelies don't find the conditions 389 00:35:30,100 --> 00:35:32,620 on the Peninsula to their liking any more. 390 00:35:35,020 --> 00:35:39,499 17 years ago, when I was last in the Antarctic, there were 391 00:35:39,500 --> 00:35:45,059 large colonies of Adelie penguins all along the Antarctic Peninsula. 392 00:35:45,060 --> 00:35:50,299 Now, warming temperatures have meant less sea ice 393 00:35:50,300 --> 00:35:53,500 and Adelie penguin numbers are in decline. 394 00:36:02,500 --> 00:36:05,340 Many colonies have been emptying fast. 395 00:36:09,580 --> 00:36:11,739 It may be that penguins are starving, 396 00:36:11,740 --> 00:36:15,619 or it may be that they're heading south to colder climes 397 00:36:15,620 --> 00:36:18,620 where there's still plenty of ice on the sea. 398 00:36:26,900 --> 00:36:31,219 But, as in the Arctic, while ice-loving animals are feeling 399 00:36:31,220 --> 00:36:36,220 the heat, animals that like it a bit more cosy are moving in. 400 00:36:44,260 --> 00:36:47,939 The bright orange beaks of Gentoo penguins are a much more common sight 401 00:36:47,940 --> 00:36:50,739 on the Peninsula these days. 402 00:36:50,740 --> 00:36:52,979 I always used to know them as residents 403 00:36:52,980 --> 00:36:56,259 of the slightly warmer islands north of the Antarctic. 404 00:36:56,260 --> 00:36:58,500 But they've moved south in numbers. 405 00:37:00,020 --> 00:37:03,579 There are thought to be ten times more Gentoos on the Peninsula now 406 00:37:03,580 --> 00:37:05,140 than just 30 years ago. 407 00:37:14,620 --> 00:37:17,339 The peninsula has warmed a great deal, 408 00:37:17,340 --> 00:37:20,020 but the same is not true further south. 409 00:37:25,060 --> 00:37:29,900 The Antarctic continent is smothered by the world's greatest ice sheet. 410 00:37:31,060 --> 00:37:33,699 One and half times the size of Australia 411 00:37:33,700 --> 00:37:35,580 and up to three miles thick. 412 00:37:38,700 --> 00:37:43,900 A staggering 75% of the Earth's fresh water is locked up in this ice. 413 00:37:48,180 --> 00:37:54,260 Global sea levels would rise by some 60 metres if all this was to melt. 414 00:37:58,260 --> 00:38:02,379 But what chance is there of that happening here in the coldest, 415 00:38:02,380 --> 00:38:04,100 most hostile place on Earth? 416 00:38:10,020 --> 00:38:14,859 The ice beneath me, up here on top of the ice cap, is so thick 417 00:38:14,860 --> 00:38:19,700 that I am short of breath, simply because of the altitude. 418 00:38:20,780 --> 00:38:23,499 This is midsummer 419 00:38:23,500 --> 00:38:28,940 and the average temperature is some 20 degrees below freezing. 420 00:38:30,020 --> 00:38:32,940 And I can tell you it feels much lower than that. 421 00:38:34,020 --> 00:38:38,579 And even the worst predictions don't suggest 422 00:38:38,580 --> 00:38:43,619 that the air is going to warm enough to melt the ice. 423 00:38:43,620 --> 00:38:47,300 But now, scientists are asking a different question. 424 00:38:49,020 --> 00:38:53,099 Could the speed at which the Antarctic ice flows off the land 425 00:38:53,100 --> 00:38:55,300 be increased by a warmer ocean? 426 00:38:56,980 --> 00:38:59,219 Where the ice sheet meets the sea, 427 00:38:59,220 --> 00:39:02,859 scientists are going to extreme lengths to find out. 428 00:39:02,860 --> 00:39:04,060 Firing. 429 00:39:15,540 --> 00:39:19,020 Andy Smith works for the British Antarctic Survey. 430 00:39:20,460 --> 00:39:24,259 What we have here is one kilogramme of pentolite explosive. 431 00:39:24,260 --> 00:39:27,539 We're going to use this to generate a shockwave 432 00:39:27,540 --> 00:39:30,699 and record the echoes that come back from underneath the ice. 433 00:39:30,700 --> 00:39:32,220 Firing. 434 00:39:35,100 --> 00:39:38,379 Andy is particularly interested in mapping 435 00:39:38,380 --> 00:39:40,500 the underside of the ice around the coast. 436 00:39:42,140 --> 00:39:46,019 Because here, it isn't resting on land. 437 00:39:46,020 --> 00:39:49,939 It's floating on sea water, so if sea temperatures rise 438 00:39:49,940 --> 00:39:52,700 just a little, it can be melted from below. 439 00:39:54,780 --> 00:39:57,139 Around the coast of Antarctica, 440 00:39:57,140 --> 00:40:01,739 the glaciers have flowed out across the sea to form immense masses 441 00:40:01,740 --> 00:40:05,140 of floating fresh water ice, called ice shelves. 442 00:40:09,420 --> 00:40:13,619 These freeze to the land around them, sticking fast and acting 443 00:40:13,620 --> 00:40:17,500 like bathplugs, holding back the flow of the glaciers into the sea. 444 00:40:20,700 --> 00:40:25,099 On the Antarctic Peninsula, a one-degree sea temperature rise 445 00:40:25,100 --> 00:40:29,540 has helped to break apart seven major ice shelves in the last 30 years. 446 00:40:31,220 --> 00:40:33,659 This is the Larsen B ice shelf, 447 00:40:33,660 --> 00:40:38,020 three times the size of Greater London, breaking apart in 2002. 448 00:40:40,260 --> 00:40:43,819 Afterwards, the glaciers it had been holding back 449 00:40:43,820 --> 00:40:46,500 started flowing up to six times faster. 450 00:40:49,580 --> 00:40:53,259 In 2008, a much larger ice shelf at the southern end 451 00:40:53,260 --> 00:40:56,340 of the peninsula started to break up. 452 00:40:57,420 --> 00:41:01,060 It's an enormous event that's never been filmed before. 453 00:41:03,500 --> 00:41:06,059 Andy Smith is flying down the Peninsula to study 454 00:41:06,060 --> 00:41:08,700 this phenomenon first hand. 455 00:41:09,740 --> 00:41:13,179 We're flying to a place called Wilkins Ice Shelf. 456 00:41:13,180 --> 00:41:16,459 It's an ice shelf that, over the last couple of years, 457 00:41:16,460 --> 00:41:20,620 has shown a very sudden and dramatic break-up. 458 00:41:22,860 --> 00:41:25,819 The Wilkins Ice Shelf is a two-hour long flight south 459 00:41:25,820 --> 00:41:29,219 from his research base, but Andy can start to see 460 00:41:29,220 --> 00:41:34,419 the evidence of ice shelf break-up a long way before he gets there. 461 00:41:34,420 --> 00:41:35,820 As we're heading further south, 462 00:41:35,821 --> 00:41:38,819 we can see more and more icebergs in the ocean. 463 00:41:38,820 --> 00:41:41,179 And most of the big ones will be ones 464 00:41:41,180 --> 00:41:43,780 that have broken off the ice shelves in this area. 465 00:41:49,380 --> 00:41:52,019 Once we cross the mountains, we should be able to see 466 00:41:52,020 --> 00:41:55,299 Wilkins Ice Shelf and then it's not far then to the ice front, here, 467 00:41:55,300 --> 00:41:56,620 where it's collapsing. 468 00:42:08,780 --> 00:42:11,379 As Andy's team reaches their destination, 469 00:42:11,380 --> 00:42:14,899 the scale of what's been happening soon becomes clear. 470 00:42:14,900 --> 00:42:18,259 Here, for thousands of years, an area the size of Yorkshire 471 00:42:18,260 --> 00:42:21,740 has been covered by a sheet of ice 200 metres thick. 472 00:42:26,820 --> 00:42:29,740 But now, over half of that has broken apart. 473 00:42:43,980 --> 00:42:48,699 Andy has been studying Antarctic ice for 25 years, 474 00:42:48,700 --> 00:42:51,780 but even he is blown away by what he's seeing. 475 00:42:52,860 --> 00:42:56,539 Now, that is pretty awesome. That is remarkable. 476 00:42:56,540 --> 00:43:01,059 The edge of the ice shelf has just, kind of, disintegrated. 477 00:43:01,060 --> 00:43:03,099 Some of the big pieces look like 478 00:43:03,100 --> 00:43:05,460 they could be a mile or more in size. 479 00:43:07,820 --> 00:43:11,339 It's almost like a, sort of, a slow motion explosion. 480 00:43:11,340 --> 00:43:13,860 It all pushes outwards very quickly. 481 00:43:21,660 --> 00:43:26,100 Every one of these huge icebergs will slowly drift out to sea. 482 00:43:31,100 --> 00:43:35,900 To study how fast that happens, Andy needs to get closer to the action. 483 00:43:37,420 --> 00:43:41,259 We're going to look around and see if we can find a place where 484 00:43:41,260 --> 00:43:43,819 we can land. And if we can, we'll be able to put down an instrument 485 00:43:43,820 --> 00:43:47,139 that will help us monitor the big icebergs that are breaking off 486 00:43:47,140 --> 00:43:48,660 as the ice shelf breaks up. 487 00:43:56,940 --> 00:44:00,340 Landing on an iceberg is another first for Andy's team. 488 00:44:14,780 --> 00:44:18,739 This satellite transmitter will help to track the continued break-up 489 00:44:18,740 --> 00:44:22,060 of this colossal ice shelf. 490 00:44:34,660 --> 00:44:39,140 The remainder of the Wilkins looks set to break apart soon. 491 00:44:42,620 --> 00:44:46,739 It's the latest ice shelf to disintegrate in a wave that's been 492 00:44:46,740 --> 00:44:48,099 travelling southwards, 493 00:44:48,100 --> 00:44:51,780 playing a major role in the loss of ice from the Peninsula. 494 00:44:52,900 --> 00:44:58,179 Next in line, and already weakening in places, are the ice shelves 495 00:44:58,180 --> 00:45:03,220 that hold back Antarctica's gigantic continental ice sheet. 496 00:45:04,340 --> 00:45:08,659 And it would only take a small corner of this to slide into the sea 497 00:45:08,660 --> 00:45:10,620 to have major global consequences. 498 00:45:13,860 --> 00:45:18,659 We've only started to see changes in the Arctic and Antarctic recently. 499 00:45:18,660 --> 00:45:23,059 So, it's hard to predict exactly what impact these changes will have. 500 00:45:23,060 --> 00:45:26,819 But we can see for ourselves that these places are changing 501 00:45:26,820 --> 00:45:29,420 and on a scale that is hard to ignore. 502 00:45:32,460 --> 00:45:37,299 The Poles, North and South, may seem very remote, 503 00:45:37,300 --> 00:45:41,859 but what is happening here is likely to have a greater effect upon us 504 00:45:41,860 --> 00:45:45,459 than any other aspect of global warming. 505 00:45:45,460 --> 00:45:49,699 If the Arctic sea ice continues to disappear, 506 00:45:49,700 --> 00:45:54,099 it will drive up the planet's temperature more quickly. 507 00:45:54,100 --> 00:45:57,059 And the melting ice sheets could contribute to a sea level rise 508 00:45:57,060 --> 00:46:01,139 of a metre, enough to threaten the homes of millions of people 509 00:46:01,140 --> 00:46:04,620 around the world's coasts by the end of the century. 510 00:46:06,020 --> 00:46:10,339 We've seen that the animals are already adapting to these changes, 511 00:46:10,340 --> 00:46:17,300 but can WE respond to what is happening now to the frozen planet? 512 00:46:54,900 --> 00:46:58,779 The increasing unpredictability of the ice was a big issue 513 00:46:58,780 --> 00:47:03,460 for the Frozen Planet team, who spent three years working on top of it. 514 00:47:10,900 --> 00:47:13,659 Whether on sea, land, lake or river, 515 00:47:13,660 --> 00:47:18,100 the state of the ice was the first concern for most filming crews. 516 00:47:23,260 --> 00:47:29,379 Unexpected break-ups left many a cameraman in need of a swift rescue. 517 00:47:29,380 --> 00:47:32,180 Sometimes, help came by boat, and sometimes by air. 518 00:47:39,580 --> 00:47:43,259 I had a chance to see the changing ice conditions for myself, 519 00:47:43,260 --> 00:47:45,300 when I visited the North Pole. 520 00:47:48,100 --> 00:47:52,939 I flew with the team to a temporary camp that is set up every year in 521 00:47:52,940 --> 00:47:56,940 the centre of the frozen Arctic Ocean to support expeditions to the Pole. 522 00:48:01,700 --> 00:48:05,699 I had never visited the North Pole before, 523 00:48:05,700 --> 00:48:07,140 so this was a great highlight for me. 524 00:48:08,380 --> 00:48:11,459 But it was hard going in temperatures of minus 40, 525 00:48:11,460 --> 00:48:13,660 so as soon as filming finished, we flew south. 526 00:48:16,180 --> 00:48:19,740 Little did we know that we had made it out just in time. 527 00:48:21,460 --> 00:48:26,059 We got back from the Pole camp last night and I've just bumped into 528 00:48:26,060 --> 00:48:29,979 the Russian Commander, who's just heard from the camp. 529 00:48:29,980 --> 00:48:35,059 And the news is that a little crack, which I'd seen in the ice 530 00:48:35,060 --> 00:48:40,619 between our tent and the airstrip, which was no more than an inch 531 00:48:40,620 --> 00:48:44,939 or so wide, has, overnight, widened to 20 metres. 532 00:48:44,940 --> 00:48:48,379 Temporary break-ups, caused by stormy weather 533 00:48:48,380 --> 00:48:51,819 and strong winds, have happened before, but they've been getting 534 00:48:51,820 --> 00:48:55,700 more and more frequent over recent years as the ice has got weaker. 535 00:49:00,340 --> 00:49:03,099 It was only swift action by the staff that prevented 536 00:49:03,100 --> 00:49:06,420 a lot of valuable equipment going in the drink. 537 00:49:13,180 --> 00:49:17,459 The biggest concern was that the ice airstrip might break apart, 538 00:49:17,460 --> 00:49:20,739 but, luckily, it held and everyone was able to evacuate 539 00:49:20,740 --> 00:49:22,620 when the weather improved. 540 00:49:27,020 --> 00:49:30,979 The Frozen Planet team's clearest demonstration of the power 541 00:49:30,980 --> 00:49:33,139 and unpredictability of breaking ice 542 00:49:33,140 --> 00:49:37,779 came when they went to film the melting of a frozen Canadian river. 543 00:49:37,780 --> 00:49:39,219 Producer Mark Linfield 544 00:49:39,220 --> 00:49:43,499 and researcher Matt Swarbrick have travelled to the far North of Canada. 545 00:49:43,500 --> 00:49:45,420 Matt, when was the last time we saw a car? 546 00:49:45,421 --> 00:49:47,540 I don't know, about three hours ago. 547 00:49:50,020 --> 00:49:53,219 They've driven through the vast Northwest Territory on a mission 548 00:49:53,220 --> 00:49:56,980 to film the moment when this frozen waterfall breaks apart. 549 00:50:00,820 --> 00:50:04,259 The break-up, when the frozen river above the waterfall thaws 550 00:50:04,260 --> 00:50:08,899 and masses of water start to flow again, can be a spectacular event. 551 00:50:08,900 --> 00:50:11,819 But predicting exactly when it's going to break 552 00:50:11,820 --> 00:50:15,580 is the big challenge, if Mark and Matt want to get the best shots. 553 00:50:17,860 --> 00:50:20,899 And they're not the only ones who want to know. 554 00:50:20,900 --> 00:50:24,299 When the waterfall breaks, it can flood the town of Hay River, 555 00:50:24,300 --> 00:50:29,139 just downstream, with millions of tonnes of water and ice. 556 00:50:29,140 --> 00:50:32,859 Mark is taking advice from the scientist Fay Hicks, 557 00:50:32,860 --> 00:50:36,259 who has the job of predicting when the ice will break. 558 00:50:36,260 --> 00:50:39,659 What happens is, you get ice jams form upstream and they start to dam 559 00:50:39,660 --> 00:50:40,738 up the water and it builds 560 00:50:40,739 --> 00:50:42,460 and builds and builds, and that can let go, 561 00:50:42,461 --> 00:50:45,579 and that's a much bigger wave of water, you know, 562 00:50:45,580 --> 00:50:47,259 than just the normal flow. 563 00:50:47,260 --> 00:50:50,180 So, it just depends upon how dramatically it unfolds. 564 00:50:51,620 --> 00:50:55,299 Fay takes her research helicopter to monitor the situation 565 00:50:55,300 --> 00:50:57,340 upstream of the waterfall. 566 00:51:06,180 --> 00:51:10,420 Just ten miles up river, the ice is starting to break. 567 00:51:11,980 --> 00:51:15,899 The locals are concerned because huge amounts of water can build up 568 00:51:15,900 --> 00:51:17,979 if these ice chunks dam the river, 569 00:51:17,980 --> 00:51:20,819 and that can lead to devastating flooding in the town, 570 00:51:20,820 --> 00:51:22,419 when the dams burst. 571 00:51:22,420 --> 00:51:25,219 Sound of it's moving through there now. 572 00:51:25,220 --> 00:51:26,859 Yes, got a shot. 573 00:51:26,860 --> 00:51:30,179 Using cameras and sonar to assess the state of the river, 574 00:51:30,180 --> 00:51:33,019 Fay makes her best guess at when this break-up will hit 575 00:51:33,020 --> 00:51:35,259 the waterfall just above the town. 576 00:51:35,260 --> 00:51:37,860 Now, guys, I think we have about 48 hours to go. 577 00:51:39,500 --> 00:51:43,980 Fay's prediction of the 24th April is exciting news for the team. 578 00:51:47,020 --> 00:51:51,499 Upstream from here, it's already starting to melt and Fay thinks that 579 00:51:51,500 --> 00:51:56,699 we may only have another one or two days before this whole thing goes. 580 00:51:56,700 --> 00:51:59,459 Which is almost impossible to imagine looking at it now, 581 00:51:59,460 --> 00:52:00,979 but that's what she says. 582 00:52:00,980 --> 00:52:04,259 With the break-up seemingly imminent, 583 00:52:04,260 --> 00:52:07,260 the team set up their cameras in anticipation. 584 00:52:10,180 --> 00:52:13,179 Over the next 48 hours, the weather warms to well above freezing, 585 00:52:13,180 --> 00:52:14,980 but there's no sign of the break-up. 586 00:52:14,981 --> 00:52:18,260 The team waits and waits and waits. 587 00:52:28,620 --> 00:52:31,779 Mark is concerned that the crew have to return home soon, so 588 00:52:31,780 --> 00:52:33,819 he heads into town to get the advice 589 00:52:33,820 --> 00:52:36,979 of long-term resident Red McBrian. 590 00:52:36,980 --> 00:52:42,339 We just have to live with it and take whatever evasive action we can. 591 00:52:42,340 --> 00:52:46,939 Red has had 50 years of witnessing the power of the river. 592 00:52:46,940 --> 00:52:51,019 Well, we're hoping that she may break up in two or three days. 593 00:52:51,020 --> 00:52:54,419 Oh, no, no, no, that's too soon. Oh, no, no. 594 00:52:54,420 --> 00:52:58,459 Boys, you're looking at seven or eight days 595 00:52:58,460 --> 00:53:03,259 before she breaks of any significance. 596 00:53:03,260 --> 00:53:09,380 And if she breaks, she can jam and hold up. She can be... 597 00:53:10,420 --> 00:53:14,500 She'd be down here probably around the 5th or 6th May. 598 00:53:16,100 --> 00:53:20,379 The townspeople are on tenterhooks, waiting for the big day, 599 00:53:20,380 --> 00:53:23,940 but another week goes by before anything starts to happen. 600 00:53:35,580 --> 00:53:38,739 Finally, it seems that things might be happening. 601 00:53:38,740 --> 00:53:40,819 We've just heard some cracks from upstream, 602 00:53:40,820 --> 00:53:44,139 so, if we're lucky, we might get some action. 603 00:53:44,140 --> 00:53:48,379 Seven o'clock, which gives us two hours of light. Two hours. 604 00:53:48,380 --> 00:53:52,420 If it happens at night, we're going to miss the whole thing. 605 00:53:53,940 --> 00:53:56,579 Sure enough, the town is put on red alert 606 00:53:56,580 --> 00:54:01,019 that the river is about to break in the middle of the night. 607 00:54:01,020 --> 00:54:03,619 They've just called a full evacuation of the Eye Inn, 608 00:54:03,620 --> 00:54:06,779 where we're staying, and if we don't move now, we're all going to be 609 00:54:06,780 --> 00:54:09,500 underwater and possibly get trapped here for a few days. 610 00:54:10,540 --> 00:54:13,020 The team have to move out and get up to the waterfall, 611 00:54:13,021 --> 00:54:17,220 hoping that it doesn't break before it's light enough to film. 612 00:54:22,220 --> 00:54:25,979 Luckily, the Sun is up before the main event begins. 613 00:54:25,980 --> 00:54:29,580 That is a serious amount of ice coming around the corner. 614 00:54:40,780 --> 00:54:44,659 After weeks of waiting, the sleeping giant of a river, 615 00:54:44,660 --> 00:54:49,020 we thought nothing was go to happen and suddenly, look at this! 616 00:54:50,340 --> 00:54:53,659 This is what we're here for. Unbelievable. 617 00:54:53,660 --> 00:54:56,580 Absolutely unbelievable. Holy ...! 618 00:55:00,460 --> 00:55:02,899 The team is used to handling multiple cameras, 619 00:55:02,900 --> 00:55:06,620 but they don't usually have to dodge ten-tonne ice floes at the same time. 620 00:55:10,140 --> 00:55:13,059 As you can see, it's racing over at unbelievable speed. 621 00:55:13,060 --> 00:55:16,419 The power, I just, if you were here to feel this, it's a deep rumbling 622 00:55:16,420 --> 00:55:20,419 sound of the river, I can feel it up through my feet. 623 00:55:20,420 --> 00:55:25,179 The power, I just can't imagine. That could crush a house in no time. 624 00:55:25,180 --> 00:55:29,979 The team takes to the air to witness the destruction that's unleashed. 625 00:55:29,980 --> 00:55:33,299 Huge ice blocks are pushed downstream on the wave of water 626 00:55:33,300 --> 00:55:35,820 released by the breaking waterfall. 627 00:55:39,260 --> 00:55:41,220 This could devastate the town. 628 00:55:46,060 --> 00:55:49,619 But, this year, the townspeople's luck is in. 629 00:55:49,620 --> 00:55:51,740 The town has escaped flooding. 630 00:55:56,380 --> 00:56:00,539 Crucially, the ice blocks did not dam the river, it's running free. 631 00:56:00,540 --> 00:56:02,219 And the date of the break-up, 632 00:56:02,220 --> 00:56:06,340 the 6th May. Red's got it right again. 633 00:56:07,980 --> 00:56:12,339 I don't use any of these here gauges and mechanical assistance, 634 00:56:12,340 --> 00:56:17,379 I just go by what I see on the river as I walk it down. 635 00:56:17,380 --> 00:56:22,419 And I say I walk it down, back and forth every day on the river to see 636 00:56:22,420 --> 00:56:27,339 what's happening, and from that, I gauge when it's going to hit here 637 00:56:27,340 --> 00:56:31,179 and what the situation is going to be like when it does get here. 638 00:56:31,180 --> 00:56:32,820 You know, when it went this morning, 639 00:56:32,821 --> 00:56:35,459 I said to my students, "Guess what the date is?" 640 00:56:35,460 --> 00:56:38,019 Red told us it was the 6th May and we were, you know, I'm not 641 00:56:38,020 --> 00:56:41,019 surprised, because we've been here a couple of times and that's happened. 642 00:56:41,020 --> 00:56:44,059 Ten days, two weeks out and he just looks around and goes "5th May." 643 00:56:44,060 --> 00:56:46,299 How does he know that? 644 00:56:46,300 --> 00:56:47,779 It's incredible. 645 00:56:47,780 --> 00:56:50,019 It's because he just has lived on this river 646 00:56:50,020 --> 00:56:53,700 and lived this break-up for 50 years. 647 00:56:54,940 --> 00:56:58,939 Ice scientists are improving the accuracy of their predictions 648 00:56:58,940 --> 00:57:01,059 all the time, but in the meantime, 649 00:57:01,060 --> 00:57:04,259 the people of Hay River have a remarkable guardian. 650 00:57:04,260 --> 00:57:08,579 Red, you were completely right this year. Are you right every year? 651 00:57:08,580 --> 00:57:10,339 No, I'm... 652 00:57:10,340 --> 00:57:16,860 I miss the odd one. Yes, 1985, I missed it.58531

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