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- [Instructor] As much as we like to think
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that statistics is an exact science,
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in fact, there's a lot of room for uncertainty.
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In this movie,
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I want to go over some of the limits of hypothesis testing
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to give you some cautions about your data and your analysis.
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The first is that,
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even if your analysis meets the 95% standard
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that most analysts use,
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you will still be wrong one out of 20 times.
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And if you've ever performed any type of analysis
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or even flipped a coin
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and gotten four or five tails in a row,
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then you know how likely it is that events can happen
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one out of 16, one out of 20, or even one out of 100 times.
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Also, you might run into errors
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in data collection or analysis
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that can skew your results.
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Some errors in data collection
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are not randomized during your samples
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or using old data.
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So make sure that your data is collected properly
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and that it isn't too old
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and that circumstances haven't changed
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to make the analysis invalid.
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And also, remember that correlation is not causation.
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Just because two things happen together
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doesn't mean that one caused the other.
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That said, correlation does tell you where to start looking.
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If two things happen together
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and it's plausible that there is a way
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that one could have caused the other,
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then that's a great place to start looking.
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As always, this is where your intuition
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and knowledge of the business will help out a lot.
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