Original subtitles

Okay folks.

Welcome back to lesson three for the August, 2017 ICT mentorship content.

This is short-term top-down analysis and it's daily.

The four hour.

Okay.

Before I begin to remind you that of all the concepts I've taught

you all the varying possibilities that you can use the information.

This is my specific approach to it.

So know that going in that this is not to press upon you, that

you only can do it this way.

It's this, this is how I use the information.

I've gone through all this information myself over the last 20 plus years.

And this is my personal approach to doing so.

So as my trading plan, if you will, this is it.

This is how I operate.

And I've used everything I've done in the monthly and weekly presentation.

The two lessons before this one that is all the work I do.

I don't do anything additional to that.

Once I arrive at my high timeframe bias relative to those first two teachings.

What you about to see here is all.

And these next two lessons, this one and the following one after this for

intraday top-down I don't want you to breeze through it, expecting some

magic, a picture or magic formula.

Okay.

It's this my unique approach to doing it, using all the information I'm

not applying every possible scenario.

I'm looking for conditions.

I'm looking for a stage that I'm looking to execute in that stage.

So in other words, I'm looking for a condition or bias.

Long-term, I'm looking for a stage or a setup.

Did I look for all the time?

It doesn't deviate.

Doesn't move all around that and changing more one day, I'm doing

this and one day I'm doing that.

And then once I know that, then I go into a lower timeframe and they execute

what that similar pattern in mind.

So everything is fractal.

So again, please, don't take this information.

You have to only do it this way.

It's just meant to provide you what I promised.

This is exactly how I interpret price and how I am able to call

the markets when I'm accurate.

This is how I'm doing it.

Now.

I'm always, uh, unsure just like anybody else about what

the outcome is going to be.

And you've been with me for more than 12 months on a daily, daily basis now.

And if I force myself to beat every single trading day, you

know, in front of the charts with you or by myself, even, I'm not.

I have to be selective on what I'm looking for.

And hopefully you've learned actually at the end of all of this teaching,

that there's a specific time window that you want to be focusing.

Trading and speculating only in that window of opportunity, not trying

to do every single trading day.

That's what retail does and smart money.

Doesn't do that.

Just look at a long-term timeframe and you'll see that they're not

always in their busy, bodying taking the trades every single day.

They're waiting for specific setups conditions and levels that they already

pre, determined and arrived at for.

I so the focus of this presentation is to determine the impact of the daily

perspective on a given asset or ma market identify the directional bias

for the higher timeframe daily chart classify the PD raised accurately to

assist in key levels and complete an institutional analysis only daily basis.

Okay.

So once I go into the daily timeframe, the first thing I'm starting to concern

myself as what's the smart money doing.

And because of all the assets that I trade, they all can be looked upon in

the form of cot, whether you're trading the S and P, which I no longer do

anymore, but you've learned about it.

This mentorship, you can pull up the cot data and pull up the last 12 months

and look at their highest high in this lowest low in terms of their net holdings.

And we can get a depiction of whether they're hedging buying and selling,

and that's more of an enemy into short-term basis using CO2 data.

So I start my perspective from the daily timeframe zoning in on what the commercial

traders are dealing to large commercial hedgers for the market that I'm trading.

So if it's the bond market, I'm gonna be looking at the cot data for the

30 year treasury bond and to get the highest high and the lowest low in terms

of the range of their net position.

Now, it may be a time when it's above the zero line.

Like everyone else usually uses that cot graph.

It doesn't make a difference to me.

I create my own zero line by getting the 12 month high and low, the highest

high and the lowest low their net positions and divide that in half.

And that gives me my new range and in above it it's bullshit.

And below it is fair.

Now again, before we go any further, it's important to all monthly

and weekly analysis is carried over into the daily timeframe.

That's what lends us to believe there's going to be a bullish or bearish bias.

Preferably the daily should confirm it.

Next thing I look at is open interest.

And again, if I'm looking at the S and P or if I'm looking at the bond market

or currencies before X, I'm going to go back to the original contract traded

in the currency futures contract.

I'm going to refer it to the open interest.

I want the insights gleaned by open interest to either

support or negate my trade.

The next thing I consider is institutional order flow on a daily timeframe.

So I want to know what the institutions are doing.

Am I seeing sponsorship and price action?

If I'm not, it's probably going to be a low probability set up or I'm probably

going to lose money, how to trade.

So ideally I want to see institutional sponsorship behind price action, and

it's seen by institutional order flow.

The next thing I do is I want to try to determine what weekly profile

is most likely going to unfold.

And I use the economic calendar to heart start framing this.

And if I can't arrive at that, I go with my best, uh, assumptions.

And if I'm wrong, I refer to the economic.

Uh, later in the week to correct my assumptions and I may be a weekly

profile that works to later half of the week versus the Monday,

Tuesday, Wednesday phenomenon.

I like to work for, for one shot, one.

Okay, then I'll start looking for intermarket analysis and I'll start

looking at the relationships to correlate a payers or correlated assets.

So I'm looking for SMT diversions, a dollar making higher high Euro failing

to make a lower, low, that type of thing.

Um, in, in a daily, going into the four hour.

Now it starts to mean something and you can get really dynamic, uh, Confirmations

to trade ideas by starting to use SMT from the daily down into the four hour.

Next day, I'm looking for market structure and now to start incorporating a heavier

use of breakers and mitigation blocks.

And I want to be looking at overall bullish market structures and bearish

market structures and maintaining that overall institutional or.

While we're creating a larger degree of market structure swings.

I'll be looking at the PDA Ray matrix.

Again, defining the PDA raise from premium to discount

using those levels.

I'm going to calibrate to get my key price levels that I look

for a trade setup or entry.

And by doing so I ended up eight, eight with a daily bias.

So at this point, my daily bias is defined.

So going through all these steps leads me to whether I'm going to

be a buyer or seller and going through this yourself, you'll see.

It's going to put you in sync with the most likely large price range expansion.

You're not going to get every move every single day.

Isn't going to be up when it's bullish and every single day is going to be down when

it's bearish, but we're focusing on where time and price meet when economic drivers.

It helps, uh, form that weekly profile that we're expecting.

It may be a Monday low of the week, or it may be a Tuesday classic low of the week

where could be a Wednesday low of the week where Tuesday falls short of a bi-level we

were waiting for, but starts to rally and trips us up and then trades lower again in

the Wednesday and creating a lower load.

And that becomes a low of the week when it's bullish.

So it was a lot of things.

He checked that way out.

Once we arrive at all these components, we will eventually lead to a specific

daily bias, and that will be defined from that higher timeframe banking

timeframe, where the bank spend spent most time looking at it's the daily chart.

So we want to transpose all these ideas in analysis and levels

over to our four hour chart.

Okay.

So again, I'll begin with the commercial hedging.

So in the process of developing an opinion of smart money and their,

and their respective actions in the market, I refer to the last 12

months of the commercial hedgers commitment of traders, net holdings.

Or if that range is very near.

Or it can't discern from looking at 12 months, I'll go down to six months

and they'll give me a quarterly, the quarterly effect where I can see the other

range that they are working with them.

But usually I'm going to adopt the 12 month range.

So whatever today is, I go back 12 months from that day.

And it's always wherever you're looking at the price right now, go back 12 months

and you get a dynamic perspective on where they're at in terms of their hedging.

Now, what I do is I determine the highest and the lowest readings in the cot line.

With the commercials, not anything else, but just the commercials, not the large

speculators, just the commercial hedgers.

And then I visually divide that range in half.

Now I consider the net position bullish if above halfway mark

of the 12 month range and bears.

If we're below the halfway mark at the 12 month range.

So if I'm below it, I'm going to be focusing on discounted res and

looking for scenarios where the market should expand to the upside

reaching for some measurable.

The next thing I'll do is I look for open interest now prior to

getting to the daily, I'm not really concerned about it when we can

start looking at it in the weekly.

And I used to do that when I was younger and get really obsessed about it.

But really until I get down to the daily on that we're concerned about.

So once my analysis takes me into that timeframe, I consider the use of it.

So I want to see open interest decline about 15% or more when price is trading

at a higher timeframe discount, right?

This is extremely bullish, especially when the monthly, weekly, or bullish as well.

I want to see open interest increase about 15% or more when price is trading

at a higher timeframe premium, right?

And if this occurs, this is extremely bearish more so if the monthly and weekly

are calling for lower prices, Now in between either of the above conditions for

my personal style of trading open interest is not considered into my analysis.

So it either has to meet one of these two criteria or I'm not

going to refer to it at all.

Okay.

Institutional order flow now in the monthly and or

weekly timeframe is bearish.

I want to see the daily finding resistance at up-close candles

on a daily and breaking through down closed candles on the.

And this is extremely barest.

That's going to show us institutions are in control on the sell side or the

buy side relative to those conditions.

When the monthly and or weekly timeframe is.

I want to see the daily finding support at down close daily candles and

breaking through up-close daily candles.

This is extremely bullish.

The daily order flow is the most important one to know if you don't

look at any other timeframe and you just simply want to disregard weekly

and monthly, not that I would advise doing that, but I knew a lot of you

just for whatever reason, don't want to look at these higher timeframe charts.

But if you do not look at them or refer to them, at least study

them from an institutional stamp.

You're really shortchanging yourself and your analysis increased too

myopic of a view, but you have to at least start on the daily.

If you're not going to go any higher, at least start all of your analysis on

a daily chart, because if you don't know what the daily charts implying in terms

of institutional bullish or bearish, You're playing with a Russian roulette.

You don't know really what's going to happen on the lower timeframes

and what may look like bullishness on a four hour, one hour or less may

actually just be a setup that gets you short from daily perspective.

So it's very important that we follow what the institutions are doing

from a daily chart and hopefully the monthly and weekly on agreement

weekly.

When the monthly, weekly, or just the daily timeframe, if I can't get

a clue as to what monthly weekly are doing, maybe they're in consolidation.

Maybe they're neutral, maybe they're conflicted.

Okay.

Maybe the monthly is expecting a lower and weekly is not doing anything that would

indicate a continuation of that, or hasn't retraced enough to get in suit with it.

So again, starting with just a daily timeframe, if.

Calling for a bearish market.

I start looking for scenarios that might produce specific bears, weekly

profiles now in the monthly and weekly or just, or just a daily timeframe,

suggest the market is bullish.

I start looking for scenarios that might produce specific bullish weekly pro.

Now keep in mind a weekly range typically forms between Tuesday and Thursday.

That's the bulk of the weekly range.

There could be a load of forms on Monday and it could daily daily around

on Tuesday, and then take off going through the second portion of Tuesday,

all of Wednesday in the first half of Thursday, creating the high of the week.

And then Friday could be just retracement.

That's how I internalize the weekly range.

When it's bullish, when it's bearish, I internalized the Tuesday creating

the high the week and Thursday.

New York open Creek and the low of the week and Friday and Monday being

just consolidation, portions, or near the open of a power three type

scenario and Friday being enclosed for power three for the weekly range.

Isn't always the case, but that's how I adopt all of my bullshit bear scenarios.

And I start there and I start looking for the weekly profiles to fit that way.

Unfortunately.

Only asset to us in terms of forecasting, weekly profiles is the calendar.

So using the calendar and looking for specific drivers, that's going

to assist you, but there's no cookie cutter, one fits all approach here.

You can't do it where it only does it this way.

And can't do it another way.

If it was believe me, I would love to show you.

And I would be able to show off and be on the internet

everyday doing it, but I can't.

Okay.

So the limitation is.

We can only do the analysis during the weekend, before the market starts

and then on Sunday, see where we open and then watch what trades on Monday.

So that's why I like to sit on my hands.

Usually, uh, in the mentorship I've been active in Mondays sometimes or watching

the market more closely than I would normally if I was just trading my own

money and not being in front of anyone, but I like to see what money does.

I'm willing to give up that Monday, low the week, because if it's going to go.

Generally Tuesday, it's going to give me an optimal trade

entry based on Monday's low.

And then I can get in, if not Wednesday, we'll do it off of Tuesday's low.

So I'm not really concerned about getting the lowest low.

I just want to get in the meat of that Tuesday to Thursday before.

So that's th that's like the bulk of what I'm aiming for.

And if I can get Tuesday's action into Thursdays, New York open, then I got it.

That's all I'm looking for.

And it doesn't always unfold like that, obviously.

But for more on weekly profiles, I going to counsel you to go back to March has

content for details about what weekly profiles exist and by looking at the

economic calendar, and I can give you the details in there and which market profile.

For the weekly profile rather, uh, would unfold or likely own fold.

You use the economic calendar and the institutional order flow

from the monthly and the weekly.

And now this daily stuff to get in sync with what may unfold for weekly profile.

And again, you're never going to dial in and get it accurately every single week.

It doesn't, it doesn't work like that.

But if we can get very close to what may unfold and focus around the economic

calendars drivers for liquidity run.

All those manipulations.

If we can get in sync with that, we can anticipate a specific

type of phenomenon occur.

And as long as it's in sync with our, our higher timeframe condition or bearish or

bullish bias, the setups are stage four.

Entries will be a lot easier to anticipate using the economic

calendar and forecasting the weekly.

Don't expect the precision to that degree.

I don't know how to get weekly profiles called every single week.

I have a rough idea of what may unfold relative to what the economic calendar is.

So on the weekend before the market even opens up, you see me do usually

one day at a time, the morning of, or the day of our analysis.

You don't want to do that.

You want to start in the weekend.

Today at the time of this recording, it's a Saturday.

So what I would like to sit down and do is look at the economic calendar for the

entire week and see where the drivers are for the week in terms of what session,

whether it be London or New York, and what day of the week and see what type

of phenomenon may unfold relative to the premium raise and discount raise it's in

the marketplace right now, if I'm buried.

And I think that there's going to be a slow start to the week because the

economic calendars rather quiet until around Tuesday, New York, open what

guests, what we may end up seeing a market reversal in the New York, open that

particular day and starts the weekly rain.

So it's a lot of scenarios that you have to play around with and

I don't have, and I've never been able to create a systematic approach

for forecasting weekly profiles.

Uh, I just know once the week starts and I got usually Monday behind

me, I got about a 60% likelihood that I'll be able to determine if

I had the hard timeframe, right.

What the weekly profile is going to be the increases if I'm wrong on Tuesday,

because then I know pretty much, it goes into 70% likelihood and 70%.

Wednesday Thursday and Friday is a trading left in the week.

I can usually find something before the Friday's close.

It may not be the whole one shot, one kill I was looking for, but I can do a

day trade or I can scout the rest of the weekly range and get, you know, whatever

I'm looking for for a weekly objective.

But the main thing I'd like to focus in on is that weekly opening that weekly opening

price on Sunday, I start there, but I also look at the midnight opening price online.

And I take that Monday, midnight open and I'd take that opening price and I'd

take it across the entire, weekly, every day, all throughout the entire week.

I'm looking at what we're doing relative to the opening price.

Monday, midnight, New York.

So I'm disregarding the entire first portion of the

trading that starts on Sunday.

And I'm looking to exactly when Monday begins in the states, the U

S at midnight, that opening price.

I use that also for power three as well.

So I use Sundays opening price.

That's our natural opening to Forex and, or.

I used the Monday opening price at midnight.

So the opening price at midnight, Monday, New York time, I use that

for a weekly opening price as well.

And I want to see what price does across the week relative to that opening price.

So I have two opening prices that I'm looking at for the weekly

profile, a weekly range, the standard natural Sunday's opening price.

And then I have midnight opening or Monday.

So it's midnight in Monday morning in New York.

As soon as that price is printed, I take that and I see if we can trade above

it or below it for the weekly range.

And also look for the same thing for the Sunday.

So Sunday is opening or Monday, midnight opening price, New York time.

I want to see if I'm bullish.

Preferably I want to see price go down below those.

And seek some kind of a discount rate, or if I'm bearish relative to hearts,

I think monthly and weekly, if I'm expecting lower prices, I want to see

price trade up above both of those prices or at least one of them that makes

sense in terms of discount to premium.

So if it gets up to a premium array above that opening price relative

to some of these natural opening or midnight in New York, Monday morning,

where the opening price is printed.

Easiest way to do it is get an hourly chart open and whatever the

opening price is on the hourly at midnight Monday, for whatever pair or

market you're looking at, that's the opening price I use for the weekly.

Okay.

And then I look for SMT divergence and I started using intermarket

analysis, as I explained in previous, uh, first two lessons here for this

month, but I'm really specifically looking for SMT, that words to

confirm an opinion I have on price.

Now, if I'm bullish, obviously, uh, the cable and I want to be seeing either

a higher, low, when the dollar makes.

Higher high, or I want to see a failed higher high in a dollar when

the cable has made a lower load, that could be a liquidity run for cell

stops and then a turtle soup long.

So I'm looking for SMT divergence, uh, at this point from daily going into the

four hour, because I think that's where the heart of its effectiveness exists.

Okay.

Then I define the current market structure.

Again, like I've mentioned in the first two lessons.

But I'm looking for breakers on a daily timeframe, more than any other cause

knowing this and where they exist in price action on a daily, they can alert

you to where the next intermediate term price swings going to form.

So if you go through price action, and you look at how price trades from bullish

breaker to bear Spreaker, there's a lot of movement generally, between those.

Reference points.

It's the meat in the middle.

That's where the, the bulk of the trading opportunities exist.

You don't have to get the highest high right before a bear Spreaker forums.

You may not get to those types of trades right now, but focus in on a daily

bullish and bear Spreakers and trade in between those two price points.

And what you'll end up seeing is it's very easy to find setups in that

because it's directionally based.

It's slanted on one side of the marketplace, it's usually one way.

And it's easy to wait for power, three scenarios.

Like when you're bearish look for the open, the rally up for Judas swings,

self short, and London and expansion down into New York and dilemmas.

Reversed.

If it's been trading off of a bullish breaker on the daily, and we can

start seeing the, uh, the daily timeframe, see an open trade down

in London for Judas swing and then rally up going into New York clothes

or London clothes for the day.

So it gives us a lot of context.

If you operate just in news parameters.

Now, obviously there's a lot of other trades you can take, but for training

wheels purposes, only if you start there looking at your conditions like that,

you'll see that you're trading many times in the right side of the institutional.

Then I go through the daily and work my way through the four hour

doing the PD array, matrix note, all the discount and premium arrays.

And again, not every single, but Ray is going to exist.

You may not get a fair value gap or liquidity void.

There may not be a mitigation block, but the ones that are

there, you highlight them.

Okay.

Because when price meets.

And also we start looking at other things in the next lesson for deviations, you get

a confluence of different things that you can take trades on, but we have to know

what the premium and discount rates are.

Otherwise, you're not going to be able to calibrate your key levels

for where the trades actually reach for, for entry or exits.

And then finally, obviously if we've already gone through the work of doing

a PDA right matrix, knowing what's above us in terms of where price may reach and

what's below us in terms of where pricing.

We calibrate those levels to the nearest 10 or nearest five level.

And I've already went through this slide many times already

in the two previous teaching.

So I'm not going to belabor you with it the long and short of it is you

want to calibrate those levels around the PDA race in terms of premium and.

Now you're going to end with what will arrive at your daily bias.

I get questioned a lot.

How do you know what the daily bias is going to be?

I think what the natural assumption is when I say the daily bias, when I

know what the daily bias is based on my analysis, everyone, especially those

that are outside our mentorship group.

Uh, they assume that if I'm bullish, I'm buying every single day and

that's where retail thinking comes in.

If we're bullish on a market, doesn't mean that we buy every single day.

It has to come to some measure of a discount array at a specific time of day.

It has to do this many times with the manipulation aspect

by the economic calendar.

It doesn't need to, but it's usually better if it does.

So, so now if we have blended all the elements that we've learned

so far up to this point, all the way through the mentorship to now.

You will know how to find and determine the daily bias.

And again, just because we're bullish doesn't mean we're buying

every day because we're bears.

We don't sell every day.

We are still waiting for conditions to meet that expectation.

If we're bullish, we're waiting for discounted rates to be

traded to, and then execution.

But we go along when we're bearish, we wait for premium erased to be tagged

during a specific time of the day.

So we have time and price meeting.

And when that happens, boom, we execute.

So after referring to commercial hedging considerations and referring to open

interest, determining institutional order flow on a daily, going into the four hour

anticipating specific weekly profiles.

And again, I'm going to count you to go back to March is content because it

helps you arrive at what those profiles specifically are, because there's so

many variables I could literally make this volume or this introduction to.

Uh, moving daily into the four hour, I can make a six to seven hour video

and it would inundate you with more information that's really necessary

because all of this has to be learned by you going in and looking for it, but use

the information I provided in the March content, where I taught weekly profiles

and you'll know what the parameters are based on all the things you've learned

so far, confirm the analysis with market correlation and intermarket analysis,

specifically, looking for SMT divergent.

Selecting it portion of market structure to frame a trade in.

So I'm looking at where we are in terms of the range.

And I defined a PDA res inside that range to arrive at key levels.

And once I've done this, what I have ultimately have arrived

at is a directional based analysis on a daily timeframe.

And then I take that and I transpose that to the four hour chart.

So now I have not provided you any charts.

I've not given you any kind of.

Hand-holding here.

And the reason why I've said this from the beginning, the PDs are

not going to do anything for anyone that hasn't gone through every

single month for the content.

You've got to go through each individual study.

You got to go through each individual presentation and learn and study it.

Now already know what's going to happen right now.

If I were not continue and give you the next.

And I said, okay, here's the, here's the, uh, thread in our forum.

Start asking me questions for things that you're stuck on.

You're going to ask me, can you have a one-on-one session with me?

Can you help me do this?

I'm still unsure about this and I'm not sure, you know, the reason why you're

doing that is because you want me to take you by the hand and literally

take you to the point of understanding what I can't do without you doing

all this type of analysis, religious.

That's the only way you're going to get it.

And that's why it's expensive.

It takes time.

Now in the next lesson, I'm actually going to give you my pet trading patterns.

This is exactly what I trade.

I don't do anything else.

There's a lot of other ways to trade, but I'm going to tell you exactly

what I do when I trade with my money.

When I trade with the analysis behind me, all those ideas.

Okay.

That I use when I do.

Detailed analysis.

When I think it's going to be a really strong run.

If I say this is going to be a low resistance liquidity run, or if I say

this is a high probability condition or set up, that's not an invitation

for you to put money into it.

It's not an invitation for you to mimic me or copy me, but it is a condition

where I have arrived at the highest level of an opinion based on what

I've done in terms of my analysis.

And I still could be very.

And you've seen me do that because I've been with the every single day and I

use the expression, a low resistance liquidity run, and I think two or

three of them have not paying down.

And that's fine.

That's absolutely fine because it's going to happen to you as well.

You're going to read it wrong or the market's just simply not

going to perform like you expected or it's going to do nothing.

Okay.

So you're, there's always a.

On the roulette table, we can be betting on black and red comes

up or, you know, we can put red and black on and green comes up.

There's no way around getting it.

Okay.

You're going to get, you're going to get lost somewhere and don't be fearful of it.

Long as short use these ideas to come down from a top down using all the

information, not taught you specifically because every one of these things

I've taught in a mentorship in greater detail with more specifics behind it.

If you do not watch the videos that accompany the live sessions and start

blending in some of the things I tuck in terms of the commentary, because I

already know what's going to happen is this, some goober is going to try to play

Robin hood and make this content available to somebody else or, or, or the public.

And I will do everything I can to find out who you are, but I have

to create the content with that.

So it requires a lot of work on your part still because a PDF file you shared like

this, could it be helpful to somebody?

Yeah.

A little bit, but you're not going to know everything by going through it

because there's a lot of things that you need to understand that are conceptually

explained in previous teachings.

A lot of it's inside the commentary during the live sessions, a lot of you

just had an epiphany about market pro.

A lot of you had a discovery about market maker, buy profiles

and sell profiles just the week.

Just this past week, we've done a live sessions in, I've got about 30 different

emails from people that said, I understand how the fine market maker by profile.

It made it click.

Now I finally got it and I haven't really said anything new it's just

because you've gone through all the mentorship type teachings.

And now you're employing the PD res because that's what I told you.

That's the missing element.

The thing that nobody understands how to use with the ICT concepts

and the free tutorials and stuff.

It's the PD rate matrix where we are in terms of that premium and discount

array and which levels are going to be there because remember it, look

at everybody asks the same question.

Which order block do I buy?

Which 1:00 AM I looking at all that's answered with the PDA matrix.

You have to work on a higher timeframe down and in this time,