All language subtitles for Long Term Top Down Analysis - Monthly To Weekly EN

Okay folks, August, 2017, we
finally made it the last month

of the mentorships teaching.

And this is going to be teaching the
ICT, the long-term top-down analysis.

I'm going to be going over how I
personally go through the monthly

chart to arrive at levels that
would be transposed and ideas.

To the weekly chart.

All right.

So before we begin, it's important that I
remind you all that I provided you a ton

of information over the last 12 months.

And a lot of that information is going
to be flexible for you to adopt as your.

Okay.

There's a lot of analysis concepts
that are very strong on their

own, but obviously the best
way to use this information.

This is when it's in concert with
other things that support the ideas.

So the more things we have in confluence
supporting a specific idea or bias

or, uh, analysis view or perspective,
uh, the better now, obviously not

everything's going to be in alignment.

It's never the case, like everything
else in the world, but if we have a.

Uh, sampling of similar ideas overlapping
or converging with the same premise,

then we generally have a higher
odds of the outcome being our favor.

So before we begin, I just wanna
remind you that this is my personal.

Okay.

Is how I use this information, how I
internalize everything in the actual

daily process that I go through.

Um, well, in this case, every month
when I go through the data at the last

trading day of every month, uh, as soon
as the market closes, I go through this

specific, uh, pattern of processing and
looking at the data and all those things

go in hand-in-hand with what you're
going to be taught in this teaching.

So I try to do.

Level of analysis once a month.

And it's usually the close of the month.

That just ends.

Okay.

And ideally if they have to on a weekend,
you know, I can get to do a lot more

in-depth detail, but generally, uh,
months don't always end on a weekend.

So they many times will end midweek
and you'll have a beginning of a

new month, immediately the next
day on, on a particular week day.

So this is the analysis that
I do personally and how I do

it and what brings me to my.

Monthly perspective that gets transposed
onto the weekly, which we'll talk about

in our next discussion, but this is
all primarily long-term and I'm going

to show you just how easy, all the
things that you've been experiencing

through this mentorship, how you can
take just some of the things and apply

it and arrive at the outcome that
you're looking for in terms of now, So

what's the focus of this presentation.

Okay.

We're going to determine the
impact of the monthly present

perspective on an asset or market.

And we're gonna identify
the directional bias for the

higher timeframe monthly chart.

We're going to classify the PDRs
accurately to assist in key levels.

We're going to complete an institutional
analysis, only monthly basis at

the end, and it all starts here.

Seasonal tendencies.

Now, obviously there isn't
a seasonal tendency for

everything every single month.

Uh, but there are specific times of
the year, and this is the reason why,

and I want to preface it as well.

Before we get any deeper with this.

I mentioned that the PDs are
going to be useless to anyone

that has not gone through the
content that hasn't gone through.

Every individual.

So the points that you get stuck on
in here, you're gonna have to go back

into the coursework and amplify your
study and go into greater detail.

And in this research it, and plus, if you
still can't get it, you get three more

months after the conclusion of this month,
where you can hammer me with questions

and I will do my best to get you in sync
with what I view in terms of analysis,

but it starts with seasonal tendencies.

So every day, um, we were,
we were bombarded with.

What's the calendar date today,
uh, while at the time of this

recording we're in August.

So.

We would be looking for August
seasonal tendencies or September

seasonal tendencies that are
coming up into next month.

Trading.

Obviously you can't do much with what's
already happened in July and June.

It's already passed.

So whenever we sit down with our analysis,
God forbid say something happened.

Were taken away from the markets for a
period of time where we have been ill.

Okay.

We just taken a high
unit, something like that.

We've been away from the markets.

Say we just sat down today and you
know, what will we do today to get

ourselves in line with the hard
timeframe and start working towards

that lower intimidate perspective?

Uh, well, it starts again
with the seasonal tendencies.

So I've given you a great deal
of seasonal tendencies that I

like, uh, for every asset class.

Um, this teaching, I don't have
to break it down so much in terms

of stocks, we do this and, uh,
you know, commodities, we do that.

Everything we see in this teaching is
synonymous across all four asset classes.

Okay.

As we get closer and into the smaller
timeframe stuff, there's a lot of.

You know, specific things that
have to be done for respective

asset classes and specific markets.

So this one's a broad brush, uh,
concept or presentation where it

covers every asset, class stocks,
bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Okay.

And the next thing I like to do is I
like to refer to the quarterly shit.

So we'd like to look at how
the markets predisposed to move

every three to four months.

There's some kind of a new
cycle or a market shift that

takes place in the marketplace.

And we have to be reminding
ourselves that whatever's been

happening in the last couple months.

It doesn't always equate to a
continuation of that thought process.

Uh, many times we'll see that it does,
but we have to always be in sync with

the likelihood of a sentiment change
or shift in the market structure.

The market will go from where it
has been going lower for a few

months, then we can actually make
a long-term low or enemy term, low

and trade higher for a few months.

So I like to look at the analysis with
the anticipation of saying it's going

to either continue or likely reverse
in the coming three to four months.

The next thing I do when I sit down, I
look at the interest rate differentials.

Okay.

And I taught you that at the beginning of
the year in 2017 and how to do all that.

And we'll go over a little bit more
detail in later in this discussion.

But, uh, the process again
is seasonal tendencies.

That's the first thing I look
for right now, the month of.

You know, what's going on,
what's likely to happen.

And then I anticipate or forecast
the quarterly shift that may unfold

in the next three to four months.

And then I look at the
interest rate differentials.

So what I'm already doing right now is
I'm looking at a time study in the basis

of calendar with the quarterly shifts.

And I'm overlaying with the
idea of, is there something

seasonally that may impact.

So there were two references of time.

Okay.

So I start there all the time.

You remember my concepts are
primarily time in price, not

price and time, time, then price.

So I'm looking for things to give
me an edge from a statistical

standpoint, saying in the past,
it's done this around this time.

Well, it doesn't always equate to that,
but I would rather trade with that

idea first and foremost, in my analysis
concepts than not have it at all.

So once we have a time element, now
we got to start looking for reasons

to justify why price should do it.

Okay.

And if we're going to be referring
to currencies, obviously this is

the portion where interest rate
differentials have to kick in.

Um, if it's going to be stopped, You know,
we will be looking at the bond market.

Okay.

Is the bond market, uh, moving lower?

Uh, if it is going lower, that means
interest rates are going higher

and it's going to be harder for
stocks to maintain a Busch market.

And if bond prices are rallying, that
means interest rates are going lower.

And generally that's going
to be a supportive of a bull

market in stocks, commodities.

Um, everything's going to be reverse,
uh, based on the interest rates.

The next thing I consider
when I do my analysis, I'm

looking for the market profile.

Okay.

Um, I want to know.

What we're doing right now, what we
have been doing in the recent, uh,

months we've been trending, are we
consolidating, um, are we reversing,

uh, there's types of things I want to
know, are we part of a trend right now?

And if there is a trend that
means certain things can be, uh,

anticipated or expected, and if it's
not trending, uh, those things also

have an impact on our expectations.

So I consider what we're
doing in terms of the market.

And then I started bringing in
other markets that are correlated

positively and negatively.

So I look at other markets to support the
idea that I'm starting to see in price.

So I'm looking at things seasonally
I'm anticipating a quarterly

move or the next three to four.

And I'm looking at Marcus to have
a fundamental reason to go higher.

That's what interest rates are.

Remember interest rates are
the number one driver across

the board on all asset classes.

So if you don't understand interest
rates, you're not going to get anything

out of any of the market analysis
concepts that provided thus far.

But once we have a fundamental,
uh, support behind higher or lower

prices relative to the interest.

The market profile is referred to next.

And then after knowing what profile
we're trading in at the current time, I

look at other markets to support, okay.

Or negate, sometimes it'll negate a
trade idea, which is why you want to

refer to other markets that are closely
correlated, whether it be positively

correlated or negatively correlated.

And then I look at the
market structure itself.

This is where I want to see
where we are in the scope of

higher highs and lower lows.

And are we making intermediate term
long-term or short-term highs and lows.

And how does that nest out in
the grand scheme of things?

And also when it says where
we refer to SMT studies, like

divergence and correlation ideas.

Okay.

And then I look at the PD rate Ramy.

And I want to define the market in
terms of a premium and discount,

and then relative to the PD,
Ray matrix and those reference

points and focal points.

Um, using that concept, I will
calibrate the levels and come up

with key price levels as a result.

And there's key price levels are where
the trade ideas will come through.

It could be either in terms of an entry
or it could be objectives or targets.

And by going through this entire process,
step-by-step in order in this way, I

ended up getting to a monthly bias and
it defines my expectation on what I

think the monthly chart going to do.

Now, some of you don't want to be
long-term traders and that's fine.

There's nothing wrong with that.

Okay.

I don't like to be in long-term traders,
but I still go through this, this process.

And it sounds like a ton of things.

It sounds like it'd probably take you
four hours to go through all that stuff.

And some of you're probably thinking
is this guy really want me to do this

every single time I take a trade?

No, just once a month, once
a month, you have to define

what it is you're looking for.

Okay.

And then.

The new month comes.

You'll do the same thing again.

Okay.

So you're gonna be doing monthly
analysis, basically one time a month.

You only have a candle forming
once a month, monthly timeframe.

So you have to look at it at
the beginning of the month.

And preferably as soon as the
previous month closes, you

want to be doing that analysis.

Especially because, you know,
unless it falls on a weekend,

like for instance, it's the
previous month closes on a Friday.

Well, that gives you a weekend
to do the analysis, but you're

not always going to get that.

Now are you, you're going to get a month
that closes during the week and you'll

have to do your analysis to get in sync
with the next month trading immediately,

the day that the market closed.

So by having all this, uh, process, um,
you end up, or I end up with a bias,

that's defined from a monthly standpoint.

And what I do is this is I
take this information and I

transpose it to a weekly chart.

So everything that I gleaned from a
monthly chart, whether it be stocks,

bonds, currencies, or commodities,
all of those ideas get translated

and put onto a weekly chart.

So.

When we look at weekly charts and our
next, uh, teaching, where we go from

weekly, down to a daily, that will give us
more of an intermediate term perspective.

So this is all that it requires
for me to come to a long-term bias.

Now there's other things that we can do
to help qualify and confirm some things.

And that's based on, uh, Inflationary
or deflationary conditions.

Like I taught in January, I'm
going to counsel you to go

back through January's content.

It's a lot of stuff in that particular
month, but you can fill in a lot of the

gaps that would not necessarily be seen
in here, but I like to look at things

like, uh, our commodity prices dropping.

Um, if we are, uh, we're in a
deflationary, uh, condition, uh, if

commodities are going higher, that's
in an inflationary condition, uh, Uh,

specific conditions have, you know, an
outcome that's most likely going to occur.

And if I give you those in January, uh,
but really the easiest way for me to

look at inflationary, deflationary, I
said, I just followed commodity prices.

If they're going higher, if generally
all as a whole, they're they're

going up, not all of them will go up.

As we taught in the mentorship, there's
going to be some deviations in that.

Like anything else would be expected
because everything is not black and

white, but if the majority of commodities
are trending lower or making lower.

Um, then we are in a
deflationary condition.

That means prices are just decreasing,
but if commodity prices are going

higher than we're in inflationary
condition, and that's going to have

an effect on the markets as a whole.

So, but basically what we get to
and arrive at is a monthly bias.

That gives me what my expectations
are for not only the next

month that we're about to see.

Or just the month after that, or
maybe even the month after that.

So I'm trying to forecast
three months of price action.

They can go four months, just like when we
look at quarterly shifts, we can go look

back at the last three to four months.

We are not rigid in that regards that we
want to have a little bit of flexibility.

So when I look at today's.

When I'm looking at, uh, like quarterly
shifts, I want to look back the last

three months, but then potentially
even four months to see if there

is something that may be missing.

But when we're forecasting and doing
analysis, we are, in my opinion, I'm

trying to forecast the next three months.

Movement from a long-term perspective.

I may not be accurate.

I may not be right.

Okay.

But if I get just half of the
monthly candle, that's about

to be painted on the chart.

If I can get that right.

That's many times enough for me
to be profitable for the month.

And that's my point.

You don't have to be right to be
profitable, but you're going to be

finding yourself more apt to be right.

If you do the things that we're doing.

In a structured approach in a
step-by-step process and going

through each individual component one
step at a time and arriving at that

information and then building layer
upon layer until you get a foundation

that builds on the monthly bias.

So once we have all these information
that we take it over to a weekly

chart and we can start using that
on a weekly timeframe as well.

So seasonal tendencies, and
this is exactly where I begin.

So I start with the calendar month
we're in and or about to begin.

And I refer to the seasonal tendencies
that are taught in this program.

You're so many of them, it
would be ridiculous for me

to go through them again.

And it's like rehash.

And I'm trying not to bog
you down with needless study.

I'm pulling all the information
until user-friendly approach.

That's what this whole month about.

You can go through and find out
what seasonal tendencies are

good relative to specific months.

And then you can just put that
on your calendar every year.

You get, every time you buy a
new calendar, or if you have

a smartphone, just plug it in.

You know, this month I'm going
to be looking for hogs to go up,

or I'm going to be looking for
a Euro dollar to be going down.

You know, all those seasonal tendencies.

You want to know them
before the month starts.

Okay.

And that way you can get yourself in
sync with a potential quarterly move.

Get quarterly shift.

If it's on the right side
of a seasonal tendency.

Wow.

You got it.

And again, not every market or asset class
is going to have a seasonal at the moment.

Okay.

But focus on the ones that do have a
historical repeating nature of how they

come to fruition more times than not in,
uh, Steve Moore has the absolute best

in terms of commodities and currency.

And obviously, you know what
the seasonal tendency is for

bonds already gave you that.

And I've already given you a single
sentence, seasonal tendency for equities.

If you're going to be a stock
trader, it's only two of them a year.

And the one I liked most is the fall.

It makes a seasonal low.

So I want to focus on the markets that
historically at that same time of the

year will likely move in similar fashion.

Okay.

So again, it's not a panacea,
it's not a be all end all, but

seasonal tendencies helped me play.

The best potential, big movers without
even needing to know what price is at.

I know there are certain
times of the year.

I want to be doing certain trades.

Now I don't force myself into that
trade, but I look for things like

we just outlined in the step by step
process from a monthly standpoint to

justify why that seasonal tendency
might have an impact on price this year.

And the seasonals are specific
and you think, uh, delivery.

Over the last 12 months and you've
got to go back and look at them, uh,

respectively to their asset classes.

I'm not going again.

I'm not going to redo
them or we list them here.

It's too many of them.

All right.

And next, I try to determine the next
quarterly shift or market structure.

And I refer to the long-term nine to
18 month trend is on a monthly chart.

And if the direction is bullish, that
means if we've been going higher, it

would have last nine to 18 months.

Uh, I'm going to still try to justify
why the next quarterly shift might

be a buying opportunity because.

I don't want to buck that trend.

Uh, if the direction is bearish, I first
start to justify why the next quarterly

shift might be a selling opportunity.

Um, I'm trying to avoid picking
the tops, um, or the bottoms

of the nine 18 month trend.

And it has nothing to do with, you
know, new moving averages here.

I'm just looking at the actual
candles, going back 18, uh,

candles on the monthly chart.

I want to see what we've done.

Okay.

And it's going to be
like my primary range.

I want to work from that.

Uh, you'll have to calibrate.

That might go a little bit, uh, further
to the left to find out where the

seasonal and that's not seasonal, but
the short term higher long-term a high.

Or whatever our market structure high
would be, uh, in the last nine, 18 months.

For instance, say there, say you
find the market has, uh, you know, 27

down days and there's 27 down days.

Um, you may be sprinkled with them, you
know, four or five, uh, down candles.

I said, days I should be
saying monthly candles.

Um, you want to be looking at
specific, um, Portions of price action.

And I start as a, you know, as a
bellwether, I like to look at the nine to

18 months, uh, range on a monthly chart
and get a feel for what it's done in that,

in that span of time, uh, long-term trends
tend to remain in place for some time.

And if the nine to 18 month trend is
not clear or it's in consolidation, my

personal approach is I will elect to
anticipate the direction of the previous

three to four months direction to reverse.

So whatever it has done the last three
to four months, if we are in a nine to 18

month consolidation, or I just don't know
what the trend is, if it just doesn't look

clear to me, uh, I'm going to anticipate
some measure of retracement or reversal,

uh, for, uh, the coming month or two.

Right next.

I refer to global interest rates and
I use websites like investing.com.

You can use that link that's here.

And what I'm doing is I'm locating and
comparing the central bank interest

rates for every major con uh, country.

And I look for the
differential trades that way.

So what I'm doing is I'm trying
to find high interest rates to

pair with a low interest rate com.

And basically form a Forex payer.

So that way I can adopt
a fundamental bias.

So if we are looking at currencies across
the global front, um, this website here

gives you the current interest rate and it
also gives you the last time it changed.

And what the change was, how much
of a change and when the next

change is anticipated or when the
next meeting of say it that way.

And ideally both seasonal tendencies
and quarterly shift expectations

are going to be in alignment with
interest rate differential trade ideas.

It may not be, it may not be like that,
but ideally all three should agree.

And this is what it looked like.

If you go to that website and
this is what I mean by it, it

gives you the current rate.

And for instance, we'll look at
the European central bank right now

at the time of this presentation,
uh, has zero interest rate.

And the next meeting is planned
for September 7th, 2017.

The last time they met and
changed was in March of 2016.

And they dropped the five basis points.

So, uh, we went to zero interest
rates in March of 2016 for

the European central bank.

A bank of England right now has a
quarter percent and they were planning

to meet also in September 14th, 2017.

The last time they changed, uh,
was a cut of 25 basis points.

And it was in August 4th, 2016.

And basically all I do is
look at that current rate.

Column.

And I look at which one has a high
rate in a group with a low rate.

And for instance, we have bank of
Canada, it's a three-quarter percent.

And if we look at the Australian dollar,
we have one and a half percent, and I

already outlined the scenarios there.

And we used it in the mentorship
to help frame some ideas, but

I'm actually going to use.

This a chart later on and, uh, an
example, but we'll look at that later

on, but right now this is what I mean.

When I go through and look for the
global central bank interest rates.

This is where I get the information
from it's right on investing.com

backslash central hyphen banks.

Hey, after that, what I do is I
define the current market structure.

Okay.

And the current market
structure, I classify the recent

highs and the recent lows.

And what I want to do is
I want to compare them.

I want to compare them with the
positively and negatively correlate.

Uh, markets, basically, I'm
looking for SMT diversions.

And then I compare the relationship to
the highs to recent highs to determine

if the long intermediate term or short
term highs are in control of price.

Presently.

In other words, are we making higher eyes?

Okay.

And then we recently made a lower.

And then maybe even lower PI after
that, that means we probably made

an enemy term or longterm high.

Okay.

And this is all taught in my
basic market structure stuff.

The, uh, if I see that
relationship in the highs.

Okay.

And it is at least.

Implying that an intermediate
term or potential long-term high

is formed, then I'm going to be
looking for reasons to go short.

Now, ideally, that's going to be in
pairs that are with weak currencies,

paired against a strong currency during
a time when I anticipate lower prices in

the quarterly shift at the same time, a
seasonal in a Tennessee is most likely

calling them for that currency to go
lower or that that market to go lower.

And the profile is.

That will be an ideal scenario.

And the reverse would be said for when
I'm looking at it, the relationship

of the lows, I compare the market
lows to recent lows to determine if a

long intermediate term or short-term
low is in control price presently.

Um, if we see a market that makes a
low, a higher, low than a higher, low

than that, uh, then we can potentially
see or anticipate the fact that we've

made it long term or immediate term low,
and there may be further upside to go.

And then we'd be looking for.

In instances where there's a
seasonal, uh, bullishness to come in.

Um, the profile is trending higher.

Uh, okay.

And Coralee shift, we would
expect it to be another few

months trading higher as a result.

So that's how we would
use the information.

And ideally, um, for when we're looking
at, uh, marketing has a potential

longterm or intermediate term high in
place, we would expect lower prices.

By comparing those highs, we would
see hopefully a SMT divergence

from a correlated asset or against
the dollar feels foreign currency.

We would want to see, um, a failed lower,
low with a higher high in the currency.

We're looking in the short or
a failed lower, low in the.

Whereas we just gave an example
of would be a, another opportunity

would be if we made it lower, low
in the dollar and a failed higher

high in the foreign currency, uh,
that would be an SMT divergence.

And that would also help us
with market structure ideas.

So basically I'm just looking for
SMT diversions and looking for market

structure to support another price like
higher or another price leg, lower.

Now trade's selected in the direction
of the current market structure,

going to be favored in my analysis.

So if I can see clear reasons why market
structure should be going higher and

seasonal tendencies, or are you suggesting
that's inline as well then obviously,

you know, that's what I'm looking to do.

And I'm going to go try to
focus on those types of.

Uh, I won't try to fade
those types of moves.

I get a lot of questions.

You, when do I want to do reversal trades?

When do I want to do, uh, counter trends?

Um, I don't want to countertrend in
these conditions where I have markets.

And, uh, S and T behind me and
seasonal tendencies behind me and

against, uh, the interest rates.

I don't want to, I don't
want to trade against that.

If that all these things are
together, I will never want to fade

that I'll always own only want to
be a buyer in that bullish scenario

or seller in that their scenario.

And I would never deviate from
that regardless, not even on.

And then I looked for confirmation
in other markets, and this is

by way of intermarket analysis.

So if I have a bullish market structure
and everything before it is also

supporting higher prices, and I determined
that in my market of interest, I look

for intermarket analysis to support
this idea in positively correlated

markets and opposed to it in negatively
correlated markets, an example would be.

Dollar finally expecting higher
prices and the dollar looking

for weak prices or potential sell
scenarios in the gold market.

Technically I'm a
bearish market structure.

Okay.

When I'm expecting lower prices
and seasonals are behind it.

And I have a pair that will be
grouped with a weak against a strong.

I'm seeing this in my market of
interest, uh, what I'm gonna be doing

is I'm looking at intermarket analysis
to support the idea and positively

correlated markets and, or opposed to
it and negatively correlated markets.

An example would be if I'm bear,
you're a dollar, I'm going to be

looking for strong dollar technically,
uh, something else that would be

supportive of that would be, um, if
I'm looking for weaker, you're a dollar

and I'm looking for stronger dollar.

As it be as a supporting factor, uh,
we can use gold again as a supporting

factor to further confirm it by expecting
lower prices in the gold market.

Now that changes when we go into
conditions like what we have now, we

have, uh, potential war scenarios.

Um, that may be a catalyst
for the flight to quality.

Okay.

Or safe Haven.

Where the go, won't be that supportive
behind your trade because it's

being driven by something outside
of normal, which would be it's

being treated as a safe Haven.

And there's a lot of things going on right
now, as it relates to North Korea and

people are seeing the slide in a dollar.

So it's safe Haven.

You can see the, uh, the gold market
rally as a supportive thought process.

There.

What profile is the market in.

Okay.

And what I do is I sit down,
the first thing I want to know

is are we consolidating, okay.

I don't ask if it's trending
first or anything I'm looking at.

Are we consolidated?

Because that tells the tale,
you know, consolidation is the

beginning of what the next move.

If the answer to that question, when I'm
sitting in front of the charts and the

monthly is yes, then expanses are likely
to show evidence prior to the breakout.

In other words, I'm looking for
things to justify what side of

the market's going to go first.

It's going to be the highs
or it's going to be the lows.

And it's going to break out to the high.

It's going to break down to the low.

I want to be looking for evidences
in science to support those theories.

And if it's no, uh, the
question is whether or not

it's consolidating, if it's no.

Then the trend might be reaching an
extreme, if it's not consolidating,

it means it's trending.

So I want to look and see, is
there a reasons to justify why that

the trend that has been in place?

Is it likely to hit stiff resistance?

Okay.

Because if it is, uh, retracements likely.

Okay.

And the next question I have is is the
market under the trending environment.

And if the answer is yes, then I
look for continuation in those trades

because trends tend to stay in place.

And, but obviously the notion is a trend
is your friend, but not in the end.

Uh, so I looked for con I looked
for continuation trades to

avoid the top and bottom picks.

But if the answer to know is, uh,
is the market trending at, it, takes

it back to it's consolidating then.

So I look for science to support a
directional breakout, and I'm going to

be using intermarket analysis to do that.

And is the market.

A retracement.

So if the answer to that is
yes, then I look for signs of

continuation trades post retracements.

In other words, I'm looking for
reasons how far it's going to retrace

down to, and you just use the PDA
rate matrix to get to those answers.

But I want to be anticipating that
retracement get into a specific

price level and then looking for
the continuation on the upside or

downside relative to the trend.

And if the answer is no, it's
not retracing, then I determine

if consolidation or trending.

And I use the above ID.

As outlined on this slide.

So it's takes a little bit of thought
process and it's gonna be a lot of

scenarios that come up and you're
gonna read it wrong or do things wrong.

And like you've seen over the last 12
months, I am not right all the time.

I can't be right all the time.

I'm human and I'm going
to do things wrong.

Um, I have a lot of things
going on during this mentorship.

It's very distracting.

I have a personal, and it's very
distracting and you are going to have

the same things happen in your life too.

So you got.

Difficulties, you're going to hit, uh, you
know, uh, potholes and pitfalls and you're

gonna hit snares and you're gonna make
a mistake and you gonna do things wrong.

But these are the questions I ask going in
to determine what the market profile is.

And I use the ideas that suggested here
to lead me to my next course of action

or waiting till more information comes.

Okay.

Then I locate the
institutional focus points.

Okay.

And that's going to be in a PDF.

And once I arrive at a portion of
price action, I wish to analyze

at being within usually the scope
of the last nine to 18 months.

Um, it can deviate a little bit based
on the market structure, but I look

about that far back on a monthly chart
and I break down the selected price

range into premium and discount and
not every price range will have every

possible premium and or discount array.

I just knew the ones that
are obvious in the price.

Now both the premium and
discount rays are noted.

I will look to build potential trade
ideas based on the PD, rays and referring

to all the previous analysis points
plus mentioned in this presentation.

That means I'm looking for the
supporting idea of a seasonal

tendency and calling it direction.

It doesn't mean it's going to happen,
but I'm looking in that direction first.

And then I look for signs in
technicals that support that and

fundamentals through the interest.

So I'm blending all elements, time, price,
fundamentals, because of interest rates.

Okay.

But I'm looking for the PDA rate matrix
to support the idea of having what,

what specific levels in a premium
range should I be focused on and what

discount or raise should I be focused on?

So that way I can really get
to a closer understanding of

where real buying and selling.

Which brings us to where I
note the key price levels.

Once I determined the portion of
market structure I want to use

for my trade ideas, I round each
PD array to the nearest 10 level

or zero level or five level.

Now it's going to be a matter of
preference, whichever it gets closer to

the actual PD right now, the calibrate.

The premium or raise above market
price or wherever we're trading at the

time on looking at the chart, I round
down to the nearest adjusted numbers.

So that way on calibrate to the nearest
five or zero level and I'm rounding down.

So it's above us.

I'm getting as close as I can by
getting the nearest zero or five

level that closely aligned to the
PDA rate matrix premium level.

But I don't ever want to round up.

I want that low hanging fruit and
for the discount arrays below the

market price or wherever the market's
trading at the time, if I'm looking for

discount erased, but Lois and price, I'm
going to round up to the nearest zero

level or 10 level and or five level.

Whichever gets me closest to
the PDA rate matrix discount.

But doesn't have to be
required to round up to it.

Okay.

Again, I want that low hanging
fruit to nearest objective.

And once I do that, what I ended up
having is, is the actual key price

levels from a monthly standpoint.

So there was monthly levels.

Now that they've been calibrated,
they've been supported with the

institutional mindset of a PDMP
matrix, discount, the premium.

And now I have a directional bias.

Because of all the factors we
went through in this process.

So after referring to the potential
or possibility of a seasonal tendency,

I anticipate a specific quarterly
shift directionally I'm pairing

strong to weak interest rates.

Okay.

Or vice versa relative to the trade idea.

And I'm determining the
current market profile we

consolidating or are we trending?

And I confirm my analysis with
correlated pairs or markets,

for instance, market analysis.

And then I select a portion of market
structure to frame a trade within.

So I'm defining or know trading inside
a range and using that for internal

range or external range liquidity.

Then I define the PDA rate matrix to
get the premium rates and discount

rates to arrive at key prices.

From the monthly standpoint.

And then once I have that, you
know, I'll have a directional bias.

That's basically, you know, all
framed from a monthly standpoint.

So that directional based
analysis on a monthly timeframe

gets transposed over to the.

So let's get an example of this and
that way you can kind of see how

the step-by-step processes and it's
really, it's not much work at all.

And it's very simple and that's really
one of the hallmarks of this month.

It sounds like a lot on the
description side of things.

And it is it's a lot, but because you
went through all the things from a

conceptual and component standpoint,
you went part by part modules.

Each individual component piece by piece.

So now where you're lacking your
understanding, you'll be able to go back

and find exactly what it is that you need
to work on, or it'll help you get to the

questions that you need to answers to.

So the next three months, when we
get past August content, you'll

have a better use of that time.

And I'll be a better teacher
to you because will know I'll

put you in a better place.

You can ask the right questions
and then by asking the right

questions, I will have.

Hopefully the answer you're looking
for that fills in those gaps.

Okay.

So let's take an example.

I'm using this information and they'll
help beat home the importance and the

process that I use from a monthly stamps.

Okay folks, we're going to at the
Australian dollar and I'll kinda, I'm

going to bring some things out to you.

All right.

We're looking at the last week
of January, there's usually

some kind of a load it forms.

And then there's another stronger
loader of forms in the month of March.

Leading up into may.

And then there's usually a
June, July low that forms.

And then there's some measure of weakness.

It takes place from August
down and talk Tobar okay.

So, uh, the seasonal tendency here
we're going to focus on is, uh, January.

And there's usually a low
forming in the Australian dollar.

Then there's a low that forms
in March was a strong rally.

It takes us in the may and it's
a tendency to create a, a summer

low in the June, July time period
that trades up into around August.

And then we can get some weakness.

Okay.

So I'm going to using this as my
idea or framework for the seasonal

impact, and we're going to be trading
the, uh, the Australian dollar.

I'm going to be looking for a way
we can do this seasonal tendency.

Okay.

And we're going to look
at that as an example.

Okay.

Here we have the Australian dollar.

This is the monthly chart.

Okay.

And I'm kind of wanting to use the.

The June time period as our study.

So I'm going to actually just block
this off here in the may month.

So where that may candle ends.

We're going to hypothetically say
that we can't see this price action.

Okay.

And I want you to remember that we
called for these types of moves.

And we were looking for bullishness.

Uh, we were looking for this candle
on here also to act as support, which

we'll outline here in a moment, but
I just want you to know, go back and

look at the information that we gave
around the Australian dollar and

you'll see everything that's here.

We talked about.

Okay.

So, all right.

So we're looking at the January, March
and June expectation for higher prices.

Okay.

So this.

Kandel here is January, 2017.

Okay.

And price did in fact rally, as one
would expect in terms of the seasonal

tendency, here's February, then March.

Now, March, April may had decline.

So we had a little bit of an opposite
effect going on and seasonal tendency, but

then we get back into another time period.

When June we anticipate bullishness again.

Okay.

Based on the seasonal tendency.

So now we have a quarterly shift
to what's happened here today.

Several months it's been going down.

Okay.

So the question I asked myself
is we have a seasonal tendency.

Okay.

When we're referring to
June as our set up here.

Okay.

Uh, our seasonal tendency was expected
or expecting higher prices in June.

And the correlation shift has
been, uh, the last couple of

months it's been going lower.

Okay.

And at the end of may getting
ready to go into June.

What we're trying to forecast
is what takes place in.

So this month right here, when
it's ends, we look back 1, 2,

3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,
13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 candles.

Okay.

Nine to 18 candles.

So if we look at this back here, price
has been really in a consolidation.

Okay.

So.

I want to know what the, what the
price has done, you know, in the last

nine to 18 candles on a monthly chart.

And if you look at what we've seen
though, we've seen prices come off

of a low, at a higher, low, and now
we've seen some measure of retracement.

So the question is, is we
have had up to the end of may.

We had three months of downloading.

So there's three months of down
movement we needed to figure out,

you know, what does that mean?

Does that mean that we're going to
see continuation of that going down?

Or is that more or
less, uh, a retracement.

We'll have to look at some things as we
go through our process, but the next point

of concern is we have to look at the.

Uh, front and outwards.

What's the, uh, global exchange
rates for potential banks.

And since we're looking at the
Australian dollar, we've got to look

at what the relationship is between
Australian currencies, uh, interest

rate and that the fed for the dollar.

So let's take a quick look over at the
website that does that, uh, investing.com.

Okay.

We can see all the interest rates here
listed, and we're looking at the Austria.

Bank the reserve bank of Australia and the
interest rate is one and a half percent.

And the last time they changed was August
2nd, 2016, they cut it 25 basis points.

And the next time their
meeting is September 5th.

We have an interest rate of
one and half percent for the

Australian and for the U S.

Our federal reserve interest rate
is at the time of this recording.

It's one and a quarter percent, but
they just changed it and raised it

25 basis points, June 14th, 2017.

So really this was actually 1% versus
Australians one and a half percent.

So, which had the higher
interest rate Australia.

So from a differential standpoint,
I'll show you how to higher interest

rate than that, of the American dollar.

So.

By itself.

Fundamentally speaking, the
yield attraction is better in

Australia than it is of the dollar.

Okay.

So we have these on intent, seasonal
tendency to expected to go higher in June.

And then we expect a
quarterly shift to take place.

And the rate differential is showing
that the Australian dollar is higher

than that, of the dollar, as it
was shown here prior to June 14th,

the interest rate was at one time.

So now we've got to look
at the market profiles.

Let's go back over to our charts.

Okay.

And going back to about 18
candles, you can see the market

profile has been in consolidation.

Okay.

So we've been in a range
and it's important.

Okay.

We don't want to focus
on any of this over here.

So we had to basically pretend if
you will, this price, price action.

Isn't there.

Okay.

It's going to be to your learning
benefit, but in a moment, just

a pronounce this, ignore this.

Okay.

So we've been in a range or consolidation,
but inside the consolidation,

we've got to look for clues.

Remember, uh, the market profile.

If it's consolidating, you know, we
want to know if it's going to give us.

An upside or downside break.

So the way we do that is we start
looking for intermarket analysis.

Okay.

And now we're going to
ring in the dollar index.

Okay.

We'll bring in the dollar
index one, a monthly chart.

Okay.

And you can see the monthly
chart, uh, prior to, um,

well here's August, July, June, right?

In the month of may, we've had
prices down, dropping lower.

Okay.

So from a quarterly standpoint,
this has been dropping.

Okay.

Do we look for a reversal for the
quarterly shifts for the dollar,

or do we support the idea that
it's continuously going lower?

Well, we had to take a look at the
market profile in this currency as well.

Prior to this high, we
were in a consolidation.

All of this was a range.

Now I spent a lot of time giving
you the outline about 38 minutes was

describing the step-by-step process,
but look how fast we go through this.

Okay.

I want you to keep it in time, how
much I'm actually doing time-wise to

get to this outcome consolidation.

And we broke out the consolidation.

So above equal highs, this was
always going to be potentially what

a stop run, even on a monthly basis.

So it could be a field break and
then come back down inside the range.

And we get that here.

This is.

Okay.

So in this case, we would expect the price
to continuously go lower because we had a

failed break here after a consolidation.

So once they broke out one side of the
consolidation and it comes back deeper

and goes through the midpoint of that, we
had to look for the potential for it to

go down below the low end of the range.

Okay.

Or at least the bodies
of the candles in here.

And that scene right there.

Okay.

Cause the WIC can always
be erroneous price.

Let me see price didn't investigate.

Go down below the bodies of the candles
from a monthly standpoint, but how do

we use this for the Aussie morphic?

Go back to the Aussie.

If you look at the relationship
from the December low

December low

and 2015 in December low in
2016, we have a higher level.

If we go to the dollar index and we
use the December high to the December

high in 2015, we had a higher high,
so we had a higher high in dollar.

We didn't get a lower, low in.

So from a market structure standpoint,
we have SMT diversions in here.

Okay.

So relatively speaking, Aussie dollars
unwilling to make a lower, low, where the

dollar was able to make a higher high.

Okay.

So this means that this is always going
to be potentially what a stop run, a

false break above old high, and the
accumulation is being seen in Aussie.

Now we went into consolidation.

Now we came down to a low.

And we rallied away.

So we took out this down closed candle,
making this a bullet shorter block,

take the open on the lowest
down close candle, right there

is your bullet shorter block.

We talked about this in the mentorship
price on June opened, traded down to that

monthly or a box open 73 80 right there.

Okay.

So opens trades down right at that.

So now what we have is we have a range.

Okay.

We have a range this high and this low.

Okay.

This is the most recent high.

This is the most recent low.

So in terms of definition of what
those ranges are, this is going to be

for a PD PDA rate, a PD array matrix.

Rather.

Good grief.

Easy for me to say it now.

So here's our range.

Okay.

And I'm gonna take this off now.

Cause S and T divergence
has already been described.

So at this moment, right here at the
end of may, before July, I'm sorry.

Before June, rather it starts trading.

We define our PDRs from this
point here below us, we have one.

The bull shoulder block.

There's no gap in here.

Cause the Wix and all that.

And then below that is the rejection
block at the close at 72 16 and

then below the low with which of
the liquidity pool or sell stops.

So there's your discount erase?

Did it have every one of them in here?

Was there a liquidity void in there?

No.

Was there a vacuum gap?

We, we talked about them.

No, there's not.

Okay.

Was there a.

No, there's no breaker there either.

Okay.

You only left with three choices, bull
shorter block projection block old, low.

There's no old high back
here to refer to either.

Okay, so you have three potential
discount rates now what's that?

No people make this a lot harder than it
has to be because I gave you the PDA race.

Doesn't mean not every print price range
is going to have every single one of them.

Okay.

And chances are, they're
not going to be there.

Uh, there's only going
to be a few sometimes.

And that's the ones you find on the chart.

Is this, uh, it's an ambiguous.

No, it's, it's definitive.

It's actually tells you exactly
what you're looking for.

You're a block rejection block.

Oh.

Low for liquidity pool.

Okay.

So you only have three choices here.

The first one you get
to, is this your block?

It opens trades down to it.

Now that could potentially
be a trade by itself.

You have to justify what's going on here.

Is there a reason to see
price go higher here?

Well, we'll have to figure that out
when we get into lower timeframes,

but right in here, we would
expect this to be a support level.

Okay.

So we have this specific handles.

Opening is 73 80.

Do we need to round that to anything?

No, it's at rate at 80
it's at a zero level.

Okay.

If it were a 73, um, 82,
we would round it to 73 85.

Okay.

Because it's above and
we're trading down to it.

So we have our range there.

And also if we define the
range that we just did here,

there's our high to low and.

Equilibrium's up here.

So we're below equilibrium in a
discount market at a discount array.

So all the frameworks
there for our PDA matrix.

And now we have our key levels which are
here and just that quick, we've already

arrived at what we would translate into
a potentially bullish scenario because

June is a seasonal tendency month when we
should see Australian dollar rally before.

The last three months go lower.

So a quarterly shift is in order.

It's been an retracement.

So is it retracing?

Okay.

Was it retracing down into an order
block seasonally expecting higher

prices and we're in a consolidation.

So what's above the consolidation
during the market profile,

a portion of this by stops.

So we were going to be targeting
a run above the range, highs in

here, and that's going to be here.

Sorry.

Hi.

And then we got a rejection block over
here, a little bit farther to the left.

So once we breach this, the next
area of interest would be the

highest close right in here.

And we will even went through that.

Okay.

So just that quick, that's how we
arrive at whether the market is bullish.

Or bearish monthly in this case, we think
we've seen in math that rather quickly

I've done more talking than was required
to determine what it is and what the

range is and what the actual levels are.

But just that quick, we can arrive at a.

For the market from a monthly standpoint.

And the expectation is not just
one month, but several months.

And right now we've had the month of June
and July deliver very handsome rewards

for being a long trader on all the dollar.

And from a day trader standpoint, you
can use these ideas to build in scalping

and intraday trading only on the long
side during this month of June and July,

because we're expecting this monthly.

To, uh, the confirm our
expectations relative to our

analysis on a monthly chart.

So hopefully this has
been insightful to you.

Um, obviously we'll be building on this
theme as we go through the entire month.

Um, the next teaching's going to
be the intermediate term timeframe

and how I do the analysis.

And you can see just how quick that was.

It wasn't a lot of work now with it.

I didn't do a whole lot of acrobatics
and do any of that stuff, but at the

same time, There's so many things you
can add to this, to confirm and qualify.

For instance, if we're looking
at the Australian dollar and the

monthly, one of the things that
supports this currency also is it

moves very well with the S and P.

So if we compare what the S and P is
doing okay, in here, if it's, if the

S P is going up, which we know it has
been going up, uh, that supports this,

uh, this pair as well, because Ozzy
usually tracks the S and P really well.

And it's going to close this
teaching and, um, let's see, over

on the intermediate term analysis.