Original subtitles

Okay folks, August, 2017, we finally made it the last month

of the mentorships teaching.

And this is going to be teaching the ICT, the long-term top-down analysis.

I'm going to be going over how I personally go through the monthly

chart to arrive at levels that would be transposed and ideas.

To the weekly chart.

All right.

So before we begin, it's important that I remind you all that I provided you a ton

of information over the last 12 months.

And a lot of that information is going to be flexible for you to adopt as your.

Okay.

There's a lot of analysis concepts that are very strong on their

own, but obviously the best way to use this information.

This is when it's in concert with other things that support the ideas.

So the more things we have in confluence supporting a specific idea or bias

or, uh, analysis view or perspective, uh, the better now, obviously not

everything's going to be in alignment.

It's never the case, like everything else in the world, but if we have a.

Uh, sampling of similar ideas overlapping or converging with the same premise,

then we generally have a higher odds of the outcome being our favor.

So before we begin, I just wanna remind you that this is my personal.

Okay.

Is how I use this information, how I internalize everything in the actual

daily process that I go through.

Um, well, in this case, every month when I go through the data at the last

trading day of every month, uh, as soon as the market closes, I go through this

specific, uh, pattern of processing and looking at the data and all those things

go in hand-in-hand with what you're going to be taught in this teaching.

So I try to do.

Level of analysis once a month.

And it's usually the close of the month.

That just ends.

Okay.

And ideally if they have to on a weekend, you know, I can get to do a lot more

in-depth detail, but generally, uh, months don't always end on a weekend.

So they many times will end midweek and you'll have a beginning of a

new month, immediately the next day on, on a particular week day.

So this is the analysis that I do personally and how I do

it and what brings me to my.

Monthly perspective that gets transposed onto the weekly, which we'll talk about

in our next discussion, but this is all primarily long-term and I'm going

to show you just how easy, all the things that you've been experiencing

through this mentorship, how you can take just some of the things and apply

it and arrive at the outcome that you're looking for in terms of now, So

what's the focus of this presentation.

Okay.

We're going to determine the impact of the monthly present

perspective on an asset or market.

And we're gonna identify the directional bias for the

higher timeframe monthly chart.

We're going to classify the PDRs accurately to assist in key levels.

We're going to complete an institutional analysis, only monthly basis at

the end, and it all starts here.

Seasonal tendencies.

Now, obviously there isn't a seasonal tendency for

everything every single month.

Uh, but there are specific times of the year, and this is the reason why,

and I want to preface it as well.

Before we get any deeper with this.

I mentioned that the PDs are going to be useless to anyone

that has not gone through the content that hasn't gone through.

Every individual.

So the points that you get stuck on in here, you're gonna have to go back

into the coursework and amplify your study and go into greater detail.

And in this research it, and plus, if you still can't get it, you get three more

months after the conclusion of this month, where you can hammer me with questions

and I will do my best to get you in sync with what I view in terms of analysis,

but it starts with seasonal tendencies.

So every day, um, we were, we were bombarded with.

What's the calendar date today, uh, while at the time of this

recording we're in August.

So.

We would be looking for August seasonal tendencies or September

seasonal tendencies that are coming up into next month.

Trading.

Obviously you can't do much with what's already happened in July and June.

It's already passed.

So whenever we sit down with our analysis, God forbid say something happened.

Were taken away from the markets for a period of time where we have been ill.

Okay.

We just taken a high unit, something like that.

We've been away from the markets.

Say we just sat down today and you know, what will we do today to get

ourselves in line with the hard timeframe and start working towards

that lower intimidate perspective?

Uh, well, it starts again with the seasonal tendencies.

So I've given you a great deal of seasonal tendencies that I

like, uh, for every asset class.

Um, this teaching, I don't have to break it down so much in terms

of stocks, we do this and, uh, you know, commodities, we do that.

Everything we see in this teaching is synonymous across all four asset classes.

Okay.

As we get closer and into the smaller timeframe stuff, there's a lot of.

You know, specific things that have to be done for respective

asset classes and specific markets.

So this one's a broad brush, uh, concept or presentation where it

covers every asset, class stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Okay.

And the next thing I like to do is I like to refer to the quarterly shit.

So we'd like to look at how the markets predisposed to move

every three to four months.

There's some kind of a new cycle or a market shift that

takes place in the marketplace.

And we have to be reminding ourselves that whatever's been

happening in the last couple months.

It doesn't always equate to a continuation of that thought process.

Uh, many times we'll see that it does, but we have to always be in sync with

the likelihood of a sentiment change or shift in the market structure.

The market will go from where it has been going lower for a few

months, then we can actually make a long-term low or enemy term, low

and trade higher for a few months.

So I like to look at the analysis with the anticipation of saying it's going

to either continue or likely reverse in the coming three to four months.

The next thing I do when I sit down, I look at the interest rate differentials.

Okay.

And I taught you that at the beginning of the year in 2017 and how to do all that.

And we'll go over a little bit more detail in later in this discussion.

But, uh, the process again is seasonal tendencies.

That's the first thing I look for right now, the month of.

You know, what's going on, what's likely to happen.

And then I anticipate or forecast the quarterly shift that may unfold

in the next three to four months.

And then I look at the interest rate differentials.

So what I'm already doing right now is I'm looking at a time study in the basis

of calendar with the quarterly shifts.

And I'm overlaying with the idea of, is there something

seasonally that may impact.

So there were two references of time.

Okay.

So I start there all the time.

You remember my concepts are primarily time in price, not

price and time, time, then price.

So I'm looking for things to give me an edge from a statistical

standpoint, saying in the past, it's done this around this time.

Well, it doesn't always equate to that, but I would rather trade with that

idea first and foremost, in my analysis concepts than not have it at all.

So once we have a time element, now we got to start looking for reasons

to justify why price should do it.

Okay.

And if we're going to be referring to currencies, obviously this is

the portion where interest rate differentials have to kick in.

Um, if it's going to be stopped, You know, we will be looking at the bond market.

Okay.

Is the bond market, uh, moving lower?

Uh, if it is going lower, that means interest rates are going higher

and it's going to be harder for stocks to maintain a Busch market.

And if bond prices are rallying, that means interest rates are going lower.

And generally that's going to be a supportive of a bull

market in stocks, commodities.

Um, everything's going to be reverse, uh, based on the interest rates.

The next thing I consider when I do my analysis, I'm

looking for the market profile.

Okay.

Um, I want to know.

What we're doing right now, what we have been doing in the recent, uh,

months we've been trending, are we consolidating, um, are we reversing,

uh, there's types of things I want to know, are we part of a trend right now?

And if there is a trend that means certain things can be, uh,

anticipated or expected, and if it's not trending, uh, those things also

have an impact on our expectations.

So I consider what we're doing in terms of the market.

And then I started bringing in other markets that are correlated

positively and negatively.

So I look at other markets to support the idea that I'm starting to see in price.

So I'm looking at things seasonally I'm anticipating a quarterly

move or the next three to four.

And I'm looking at Marcus to have a fundamental reason to go higher.

That's what interest rates are.

Remember interest rates are the number one driver across

the board on all asset classes.

So if you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to get anything

out of any of the market analysis concepts that provided thus far.

But once we have a fundamental, uh, support behind higher or lower

prices relative to the interest.

The market profile is referred to next.

And then after knowing what profile we're trading in at the current time, I

look at other markets to support, okay.

Or negate, sometimes it'll negate a trade idea, which is why you want to

refer to other markets that are closely correlated, whether it be positively

correlated or negatively correlated.

And then I look at the market structure itself.

This is where I want to see where we are in the scope of

higher highs and lower lows.

And are we making intermediate term long-term or short-term highs and lows.

And how does that nest out in the grand scheme of things?

And also when it says where we refer to SMT studies, like

divergence and correlation ideas.

Okay.

And then I look at the PD rate Ramy.

And I want to define the market in terms of a premium and discount,

and then relative to the PD, Ray matrix and those reference

points and focal points.

Um, using that concept, I will calibrate the levels and come up

with key price levels as a result.

And there's key price levels are where the trade ideas will come through.

It could be either in terms of an entry or it could be objectives or targets.

And by going through this entire process, step-by-step in order in this way, I

ended up getting to a monthly bias and it defines my expectation on what I

think the monthly chart going to do.

Now, some of you don't want to be long-term traders and that's fine.

There's nothing wrong with that.

Okay.

I don't like to be in long-term traders, but I still go through this, this process.

And it sounds like a ton of things.

It sounds like it'd probably take you four hours to go through all that stuff.

And some of you're probably thinking is this guy really want me to do this

every single time I take a trade?

No, just once a month, once a month, you have to define

what it is you're looking for.

Okay.

And then.

The new month comes.

You'll do the same thing again.

Okay.

So you're gonna be doing monthly analysis, basically one time a month.

You only have a candle forming once a month, monthly timeframe.

So you have to look at it at the beginning of the month.

And preferably as soon as the previous month closes, you

want to be doing that analysis.

Especially because, you know, unless it falls on a weekend,

like for instance, it's the previous month closes on a Friday.

Well, that gives you a weekend to do the analysis, but you're

not always going to get that.

Now are you, you're going to get a month that closes during the week and you'll

have to do your analysis to get in sync with the next month trading immediately,

the day that the market closed.

So by having all this, uh, process, um, you end up, or I end up with a bias,

that's defined from a monthly standpoint.

And what I do is this is I take this information and I

transpose it to a weekly chart.

So everything that I gleaned from a monthly chart, whether it be stocks,

bonds, currencies, or commodities, all of those ideas get translated

and put onto a weekly chart.

So.

When we look at weekly charts and our next, uh, teaching, where we go from

weekly, down to a daily, that will give us more of an intermediate term perspective.

So this is all that it requires for me to come to a long-term bias.

Now there's other things that we can do to help qualify and confirm some things.

And that's based on, uh, Inflationary or deflationary conditions.

Like I taught in January, I'm going to counsel you to go

back through January's content.

It's a lot of stuff in that particular month, but you can fill in a lot of the

gaps that would not necessarily be seen in here, but I like to look at things

like, uh, our commodity prices dropping.

Um, if we are, uh, we're in a deflationary, uh, condition, uh, if

commodities are going higher, that's in an inflationary condition, uh, Uh,

specific conditions have, you know, an outcome that's most likely going to occur.

And if I give you those in January, uh, but really the easiest way for me to

look at inflationary, deflationary, I said, I just followed commodity prices.

If they're going higher, if generally all as a whole, they're they're

going up, not all of them will go up.

As we taught in the mentorship, there's going to be some deviations in that.

Like anything else would be expected because everything is not black and

white, but if the majority of commodities are trending lower or making lower.

Um, then we are in a deflationary condition.

That means prices are just decreasing, but if commodity prices are going

higher than we're in inflationary condition, and that's going to have

an effect on the markets as a whole.

So, but basically what we get to and arrive at is a monthly bias.

That gives me what my expectations are for not only the next

month that we're about to see.

Or just the month after that, or maybe even the month after that.

So I'm trying to forecast three months of price action.

They can go four months, just like when we look at quarterly shifts, we can go look

back at the last three to four months.

We are not rigid in that regards that we want to have a little bit of flexibility.

So when I look at today's.

When I'm looking at, uh, like quarterly shifts, I want to look back the last

three months, but then potentially even four months to see if there

is something that may be missing.

But when we're forecasting and doing analysis, we are, in my opinion, I'm

trying to forecast the next three months.

Movement from a long-term perspective.

I may not be accurate.

I may not be right.

Okay.

But if I get just half of the monthly candle, that's about

to be painted on the chart.

If I can get that right.

That's many times enough for me to be profitable for the month.

And that's my point.

You don't have to be right to be profitable, but you're going to be

finding yourself more apt to be right.

If you do the things that we're doing.

In a structured approach in a step-by-step process and going

through each individual component one step at a time and arriving at that

information and then building layer upon layer until you get a foundation

that builds on the monthly bias.

So once we have all these information that we take it over to a weekly

chart and we can start using that on a weekly timeframe as well.

So seasonal tendencies, and this is exactly where I begin.

So I start with the calendar month we're in and or about to begin.

And I refer to the seasonal tendencies that are taught in this program.

You're so many of them, it would be ridiculous for me

to go through them again.

And it's like rehash.

And I'm trying not to bog you down with needless study.

I'm pulling all the information until user-friendly approach.

That's what this whole month about.

You can go through and find out what seasonal tendencies are

good relative to specific months.

And then you can just put that on your calendar every year.

You get, every time you buy a new calendar, or if you have

a smartphone, just plug it in.

You know, this month I'm going to be looking for hogs to go up,

or I'm going to be looking for a Euro dollar to be going down.

You know, all those seasonal tendencies.

You want to know them before the month starts.

Okay.

And that way you can get yourself in sync with a potential quarterly move.

Get quarterly shift.

If it's on the right side of a seasonal tendency.

Wow.

You got it.

And again, not every market or asset class is going to have a seasonal at the moment.

Okay.

But focus on the ones that do have a historical repeating nature of how they

come to fruition more times than not in, uh, Steve Moore has the absolute best

in terms of commodities and currency.

And obviously, you know what the seasonal tendency is for

bonds already gave you that.

And I've already given you a single sentence, seasonal tendency for equities.

If you're going to be a stock trader, it's only two of them a year.

And the one I liked most is the fall.

It makes a seasonal low.

So I want to focus on the markets that historically at that same time of the

year will likely move in similar fashion.

Okay.

So again, it's not a panacea, it's not a be all end all, but

seasonal tendencies helped me play.

The best potential, big movers without even needing to know what price is at.

I know there are certain times of the year.

I want to be doing certain trades.

Now I don't force myself into that trade, but I look for things like

we just outlined in the step by step process from a monthly standpoint to

justify why that seasonal tendency might have an impact on price this year.

And the seasonals are specific and you think, uh, delivery.

Over the last 12 months and you've got to go back and look at them, uh,

respectively to their asset classes.

I'm not going again.

I'm not going to redo them or we list them here.

It's too many of them.

All right.

And next, I try to determine the next quarterly shift or market structure.

And I refer to the long-term nine to 18 month trend is on a monthly chart.

And if the direction is bullish, that means if we've been going higher, it

would have last nine to 18 months.

Uh, I'm going to still try to justify why the next quarterly shift might

be a buying opportunity because.

I don't want to buck that trend.

Uh, if the direction is bearish, I first start to justify why the next quarterly

shift might be a selling opportunity.

Um, I'm trying to avoid picking the tops, um, or the bottoms

of the nine 18 month trend.

And it has nothing to do with, you know, new moving averages here.

I'm just looking at the actual candles, going back 18, uh,

candles on the monthly chart.

I want to see what we've done.

Okay.

And it's going to be like my primary range.

I want to work from that.

Uh, you'll have to calibrate.

That might go a little bit, uh, further to the left to find out where the

seasonal and that's not seasonal, but the short term higher long-term a high.

Or whatever our market structure high would be, uh, in the last nine, 18 months.

For instance, say there, say you find the market has, uh, you know, 27

down days and there's 27 down days.

Um, you may be sprinkled with them, you know, four or five, uh, down candles.

I said, days I should be saying monthly candles.

Um, you want to be looking at specific, um, Portions of price action.

And I start as a, you know, as a bellwether, I like to look at the nine to

18 months, uh, range on a monthly chart and get a feel for what it's done in that,

in that span of time, uh, long-term trends tend to remain in place for some time.

And if the nine to 18 month trend is not clear or it's in consolidation, my

personal approach is I will elect to anticipate the direction of the previous

three to four months direction to reverse.

So whatever it has done the last three to four months, if we are in a nine to 18

month consolidation, or I just don't know what the trend is, if it just doesn't look

clear to me, uh, I'm going to anticipate some measure of retracement or reversal,

uh, for, uh, the coming month or two.

Right next.

I refer to global interest rates and I use websites like investing.com.

You can use that link that's here.

And what I'm doing is I'm locating and comparing the central bank interest

rates for every major con uh, country.

And I look for the differential trades that way.

So what I'm doing is I'm trying to find high interest rates to

pair with a low interest rate com.

And basically form a Forex payer.

So that way I can adopt a fundamental bias.

So if we are looking at currencies across the global front, um, this website here

gives you the current interest rate and it also gives you the last time it changed.

And what the change was, how much of a change and when the next

change is anticipated or when the next meeting of say it that way.

And ideally both seasonal tendencies and quarterly shift expectations

are going to be in alignment with interest rate differential trade ideas.

It may not be, it may not be like that, but ideally all three should agree.

And this is what it looked like.

If you go to that website and this is what I mean by it, it

gives you the current rate.

And for instance, we'll look at the European central bank right now

at the time of this presentation, uh, has zero interest rate.

And the next meeting is planned for September 7th, 2017.

The last time they met and changed was in March of 2016.

And they dropped the five basis points.

So, uh, we went to zero interest rates in March of 2016 for

the European central bank.

A bank of England right now has a quarter percent and they were planning

to meet also in September 14th, 2017.

The last time they changed, uh, was a cut of 25 basis points.

And it was in August 4th, 2016.

And basically all I do is look at that current rate.

Column.

And I look at which one has a high rate in a group with a low rate.

And for instance, we have bank of Canada, it's a three-quarter percent.

And if we look at the Australian dollar, we have one and a half percent, and I

already outlined the scenarios there.

And we used it in the mentorship to help frame some ideas, but

I'm actually going to use.

This a chart later on and, uh, an example, but we'll look at that later

on, but right now this is what I mean.

When I go through and look for the global central bank interest rates.

This is where I get the information from it's right on investing.com

backslash central hyphen banks.

Hey, after that, what I do is I define the current market structure.

Okay.

And the current market structure, I classify the recent

highs and the recent lows.

And what I want to do is I want to compare them.

I want to compare them with the positively and negatively correlate.

Uh, markets, basically, I'm looking for SMT diversions.

And then I compare the relationship to the highs to recent highs to determine

if the long intermediate term or short term highs are in control of price.

Presently.

In other words, are we making higher eyes?

Okay.

And then we recently made a lower.

And then maybe even lower PI after that, that means we probably made

an enemy term or longterm high.

Okay.

And this is all taught in my basic market structure stuff.

The, uh, if I see that relationship in the highs.

Okay.

And it is at least.

Implying that an intermediate term or potential long-term high

is formed, then I'm going to be looking for reasons to go short.

Now, ideally, that's going to be in pairs that are with weak currencies,

paired against a strong currency during a time when I anticipate lower prices in

the quarterly shift at the same time, a seasonal in a Tennessee is most likely

calling them for that currency to go lower or that that market to go lower.

And the profile is.

That will be an ideal scenario.

And the reverse would be said for when I'm looking at it, the relationship

of the lows, I compare the market lows to recent lows to determine if a

long intermediate term or short-term low is in control price presently.

Um, if we see a market that makes a low, a higher, low than a higher, low

than that, uh, then we can potentially see or anticipate the fact that we've

made it long term or immediate term low, and there may be further upside to go.

And then we'd be looking for.

In instances where there's a seasonal, uh, bullishness to come in.

Um, the profile is trending higher.

Uh, okay.

And Coralee shift, we would expect it to be another few

months trading higher as a result.

So that's how we would use the information.

And ideally, um, for when we're looking at, uh, marketing has a potential

longterm or intermediate term high in place, we would expect lower prices.

By comparing those highs, we would see hopefully a SMT divergence

from a correlated asset or against the dollar feels foreign currency.

We would want to see, um, a failed lower, low with a higher high in the currency.

We're looking in the short or a failed lower, low in the.

Whereas we just gave an example of would be a, another opportunity

would be if we made it lower, low in the dollar and a failed higher

high in the foreign currency, uh, that would be an SMT divergence.

And that would also help us with market structure ideas.

So basically I'm just looking for SMT diversions and looking for market

structure to support another price like higher or another price leg, lower.

Now trade's selected in the direction of the current market structure,

going to be favored in my analysis.

So if I can see clear reasons why market structure should be going higher and

seasonal tendencies, or are you suggesting that's inline as well then obviously,

you know, that's what I'm looking to do.

And I'm going to go try to focus on those types of.

Uh, I won't try to fade those types of moves.

I get a lot of questions.

You, when do I want to do reversal trades?

When do I want to do, uh, counter trends?

Um, I don't want to countertrend in these conditions where I have markets.

And, uh, S and T behind me and seasonal tendencies behind me and

against, uh, the interest rates.

I don't want to, I don't want to trade against that.

If that all these things are together, I will never want to fade

that I'll always own only want to be a buyer in that bullish scenario

or seller in that their scenario.

And I would never deviate from that regardless, not even on.

And then I looked for confirmation in other markets, and this is

by way of intermarket analysis.

So if I have a bullish market structure and everything before it is also

supporting higher prices, and I determined that in my market of interest, I look

for intermarket analysis to support this idea in positively correlated

markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets, an example would be.

Dollar finally expecting higher prices and the dollar looking

for weak prices or potential sell scenarios in the gold market.

Technically I'm a bearish market structure.

Okay.

When I'm expecting lower prices and seasonals are behind it.

And I have a pair that will be grouped with a weak against a strong.

I'm seeing this in my market of interest, uh, what I'm gonna be doing

is I'm looking at intermarket analysis to support the idea and positively

correlated markets and, or opposed to it and negatively correlated markets.

An example would be if I'm bear, you're a dollar, I'm going to be

looking for strong dollar technically, uh, something else that would be

supportive of that would be, um, if I'm looking for weaker, you're a dollar

and I'm looking for stronger dollar.

As it be as a supporting factor, uh, we can use gold again as a supporting

factor to further confirm it by expecting lower prices in the gold market.

Now that changes when we go into conditions like what we have now, we

have, uh, potential war scenarios.

Um, that may be a catalyst for the flight to quality.

Okay.

Or safe Haven.

Where the go, won't be that supportive behind your trade because it's

being driven by something outside of normal, which would be it's

being treated as a safe Haven.

And there's a lot of things going on right now, as it relates to North Korea and

people are seeing the slide in a dollar.

So it's safe Haven.

You can see the, uh, the gold market rally as a supportive thought process.

There.

What profile is the market in.

Okay.

And what I do is I sit down, the first thing I want to know

is are we consolidating, okay.

I don't ask if it's trending first or anything I'm looking at.

Are we consolidated?

Because that tells the tale, you know, consolidation is the

beginning of what the next move.

If the answer to that question, when I'm sitting in front of the charts and the

monthly is yes, then expanses are likely to show evidence prior to the breakout.

In other words, I'm looking for things to justify what side of

the market's going to go first.

It's going to be the highs or it's going to be the lows.

And it's going to break out to the high.

It's going to break down to the low.

I want to be looking for evidences in science to support those theories.

And if it's no, uh, the question is whether or not

it's consolidating, if it's no.

Then the trend might be reaching an extreme, if it's not consolidating,

it means it's trending.

So I want to look and see, is there a reasons to justify why that

the trend that has been in place?

Is it likely to hit stiff resistance?

Okay.

Because if it is, uh, retracements likely.

Okay.

And the next question I have is is the market under the trending environment.

And if the answer is yes, then I look for continuation in those trades

because trends tend to stay in place.

And, but obviously the notion is a trend is your friend, but not in the end.

Uh, so I looked for con I looked for continuation trades to

avoid the top and bottom picks.

But if the answer to know is, uh, is the market trending at, it, takes

it back to it's consolidating then.

So I look for science to support a directional breakout, and I'm going to

be using intermarket analysis to do that.

And is the market.

A retracement.

So if the answer to that is yes, then I look for signs of

continuation trades post retracements.

In other words, I'm looking for reasons how far it's going to retrace

down to, and you just use the PDA rate matrix to get to those answers.

But I want to be anticipating that retracement get into a specific

price level and then looking for the continuation on the upside or

downside relative to the trend.

And if the answer is no, it's not retracing, then I determine

if consolidation or trending.

And I use the above ID.

As outlined on this slide.

So it's takes a little bit of thought process and it's gonna be a lot of

scenarios that come up and you're gonna read it wrong or do things wrong.

And like you've seen over the last 12 months, I am not right all the time.

I can't be right all the time.

I'm human and I'm going to do things wrong.

Um, I have a lot of things going on during this mentorship.

It's very distracting.

I have a personal, and it's very distracting and you are going to have

the same things happen in your life too.

So you got.

Difficulties, you're going to hit, uh, you know, uh, potholes and pitfalls and you're

gonna hit snares and you're gonna make a mistake and you gonna do things wrong.

But these are the questions I ask going in to determine what the market profile is.

And I use the ideas that suggested here to lead me to my next course of action

or waiting till more information comes.

Okay.

Then I locate the institutional focus points.

Okay.

And that's going to be in a PDF.

And once I arrive at a portion of price action, I wish to analyze

at being within usually the scope of the last nine to 18 months.

Um, it can deviate a little bit based on the market structure, but I look

about that far back on a monthly chart and I break down the selected price

range into premium and discount and not every price range will have every

possible premium and or discount array.

I just knew the ones that are obvious in the price.

Now both the premium and discount rays are noted.

I will look to build potential trade ideas based on the PD, rays and referring

to all the previous analysis points plus mentioned in this presentation.

That means I'm looking for the supporting idea of a seasonal

tendency and calling it direction.

It doesn't mean it's going to happen, but I'm looking in that direction first.

And then I look for signs in technicals that support that and

fundamentals through the interest.

So I'm blending all elements, time, price, fundamentals, because of interest rates.

Okay.

But I'm looking for the PDA rate matrix to support the idea of having what,

what specific levels in a premium range should I be focused on and what

discount or raise should I be focused on?

So that way I can really get to a closer understanding of

where real buying and selling.

Which brings us to where I note the key price levels.

Once I determined the portion of market structure I want to use

for my trade ideas, I round each PD array to the nearest 10 level

or zero level or five level.

Now it's going to be a matter of preference, whichever it gets closer to

the actual PD right now, the calibrate.

The premium or raise above market price or wherever we're trading at the

time on looking at the chart, I round down to the nearest adjusted numbers.

So that way on calibrate to the nearest five or zero level and I'm rounding down.

So it's above us.

I'm getting as close as I can by getting the nearest zero or five

level that closely aligned to the PDA rate matrix premium level.

But I don't ever want to round up.

I want that low hanging fruit and for the discount arrays below the

market price or wherever the market's trading at the time, if I'm looking for

discount erased, but Lois and price, I'm going to round up to the nearest zero

level or 10 level and or five level.

Whichever gets me closest to the PDA rate matrix discount.

But doesn't have to be required to round up to it.

Okay.

Again, I want that low hanging fruit to nearest objective.

And once I do that, what I ended up having is, is the actual key price

levels from a monthly standpoint.

So there was monthly levels.

Now that they've been calibrated, they've been supported with the

institutional mindset of a PDMP matrix, discount, the premium.

And now I have a directional bias.

Because of all the factors we went through in this process.

So after referring to the potential or possibility of a seasonal tendency,

I anticipate a specific quarterly shift directionally I'm pairing

strong to weak interest rates.

Okay.

Or vice versa relative to the trade idea.

And I'm determining the current market profile we

consolidating or are we trending?

And I confirm my analysis with correlated pairs or markets,

for instance, market analysis.

And then I select a portion of market structure to frame a trade within.

So I'm defining or know trading inside a range and using that for internal

range or external range liquidity.

Then I define the PDA rate matrix to get the premium rates and discount

rates to arrive at key prices.

From the monthly standpoint.

And then once I have that, you know, I'll have a directional bias.

That's basically, you know, all framed from a monthly standpoint.

So that directional based analysis on a monthly timeframe

gets transposed over to the.

So let's get an example of this and that way you can kind of see how

the step-by-step processes and it's really, it's not much work at all.

And it's very simple and that's really one of the hallmarks of this month.

It sounds like a lot on the description side of things.

And it is it's a lot, but because you went through all the things from a

conceptual and component standpoint, you went part by part modules.

Each individual component piece by piece.

So now where you're lacking your understanding, you'll be able to go back

and find exactly what it is that you need to work on, or it'll help you get to the

questions that you need to answers to.

So the next three months, when we get past August content, you'll

have a better use of that time.

And I'll be a better teacher to you because will know I'll

put you in a better place.

You can ask the right questions and then by asking the right

questions, I will have.

Hopefully the answer you're looking for that fills in those gaps.

Okay.

So let's take an example.

I'm using this information and they'll help beat home the importance and the

process that I use from a monthly stamps.

Okay folks, we're going to at the Australian dollar and I'll kinda, I'm

going to bring some things out to you.

All right.

We're looking at the last week of January, there's usually

some kind of a load it forms.

And then there's another stronger loader of forms in the month of March.

Leading up into may.

And then there's usually a June, July low that forms.

And then there's some measure of weakness.

It takes place from August down and talk Tobar okay.

So, uh, the seasonal tendency here we're going to focus on is, uh, January.

And there's usually a low forming in the Australian dollar.

Then there's a low that forms in March was a strong rally.

It takes us in the may and it's a tendency to create a, a summer

low in the June, July time period that trades up into around August.

And then we can get some weakness.

Okay.

So I'm going to using this as my idea or framework for the seasonal

impact, and we're going to be trading the, uh, the Australian dollar.

I'm going to be looking for a way we can do this seasonal tendency.

Okay.

And we're going to look at that as an example.

Okay.

Here we have the Australian dollar.

This is the monthly chart.

Okay.

And I'm kind of wanting to use the.

The June time period as our study.

So I'm going to actually just block this off here in the may month.

So where that may candle ends.

We're going to hypothetically say that we can't see this price action.

Okay.

And I want you to remember that we called for these types of moves.

And we were looking for bullishness.

Uh, we were looking for this candle on here also to act as support, which

we'll outline here in a moment, but I just want you to know, go back and

look at the information that we gave around the Australian dollar and

you'll see everything that's here.

We talked about.

Okay.

So, all right.

So we're looking at the January, March and June expectation for higher prices.

Okay.

So this.

Kandel here is January, 2017.

Okay.

And price did in fact rally, as one would expect in terms of the seasonal

tendency, here's February, then March.

Now, March, April may had decline.

So we had a little bit of an opposite effect going on and seasonal tendency, but

then we get back into another time period.

When June we anticipate bullishness again.

Okay.

Based on the seasonal tendency.

So now we have a quarterly shift to what's happened here today.

Several months it's been going down.

Okay.

So the question I asked myself is we have a seasonal tendency.

Okay.

When we're referring to June as our set up here.

Okay.

Uh, our seasonal tendency was expected or expecting higher prices in June.

And the correlation shift has been, uh, the last couple of

months it's been going lower.

Okay.

And at the end of may getting ready to go into June.

What we're trying to forecast is what takes place in.

So this month right here, when it's ends, we look back 1, 2,

3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 candles.

Okay.

Nine to 18 candles.

So if we look at this back here, price has been really in a consolidation.

Okay.

So.

I want to know what the, what the price has done, you know, in the last

nine to 18 candles on a monthly chart.

And if you look at what we've seen though, we've seen prices come off

of a low, at a higher, low, and now we've seen some measure of retracement.

So the question is, is we have had up to the end of may.

We had three months of downloading.

So there's three months of down movement we needed to figure out,

you know, what does that mean?

Does that mean that we're going to see continuation of that going down?

Or is that more or less, uh, a retracement.

We'll have to look at some things as we go through our process, but the next point

of concern is we have to look at the.

Uh, front and outwards.

What's the, uh, global exchange rates for potential banks.

And since we're looking at the Australian dollar, we've got to look

at what the relationship is between Australian currencies, uh, interest

rate and that the fed for the dollar.

So let's take a quick look over at the website that does that, uh, investing.com.

Okay.

We can see all the interest rates here listed, and we're looking at the Austria.

Bank the reserve bank of Australia and the interest rate is one and a half percent.

And the last time they changed was August 2nd, 2016, they cut it 25 basis points.

And the next time their meeting is September 5th.

We have an interest rate of one and half percent for the

Australian and for the U S.

Our federal reserve interest rate is at the time of this recording.

It's one and a quarter percent, but they just changed it and raised it

25 basis points, June 14th, 2017.

So really this was actually 1% versus Australians one and a half percent.

So, which had the higher interest rate Australia.

So from a differential standpoint, I'll show you how to higher interest

rate than that, of the American dollar.

So.

By itself.

Fundamentally speaking, the yield attraction is better in

Australia than it is of the dollar.

Okay.

So we have these on intent, seasonal tendency to expected to go higher in June.

And then we expect a quarterly shift to take place.

And the rate differential is showing that the Australian dollar is higher

than that, of the dollar, as it was shown here prior to June 14th,

the interest rate was at one time.

So now we've got to look at the market profiles.

Let's go back over to our charts.

Okay.

And going back to about 18 candles, you can see the market

profile has been in consolidation.

Okay.

So we've been in a range and it's important.

Okay.

We don't want to focus on any of this over here.

So we had to basically pretend if you will, this price, price action.

Isn't there.

Okay.

It's going to be to your learning benefit, but in a moment, just

a pronounce this, ignore this.

Okay.

So we've been in a range or consolidation, but inside the consolidation,

we've got to look for clues.

Remember, uh, the market profile.

If it's consolidating, you know, we want to know if it's going to give us.

An upside or downside break.

So the way we do that is we start looking for intermarket analysis.

Okay.

And now we're going to ring in the dollar index.

Okay.

We'll bring in the dollar index one, a monthly chart.

Okay.

And you can see the monthly chart, uh, prior to, um,

well here's August, July, June, right?

In the month of may, we've had prices down, dropping lower.

Okay.

So from a quarterly standpoint, this has been dropping.

Okay.

Do we look for a reversal for the quarterly shifts for the dollar,

or do we support the idea that it's continuously going lower?

Well, we had to take a look at the market profile in this currency as well.

Prior to this high, we were in a consolidation.

All of this was a range.

Now I spent a lot of time giving you the outline about 38 minutes was

describing the step-by-step process, but look how fast we go through this.

Okay.

I want you to keep it in time, how much I'm actually doing time-wise to

get to this outcome consolidation.

And we broke out the consolidation.

So above equal highs, this was always going to be potentially what

a stop run, even on a monthly basis.

So it could be a field break and then come back down inside the range.

And we get that here.

This is.

Okay.

So in this case, we would expect the price to continuously go lower because we had a

failed break here after a consolidation.

So once they broke out one side of the consolidation and it comes back deeper

and goes through the midpoint of that, we had to look for the potential for it to

go down below the low end of the range.

Okay.

Or at least the bodies of the candles in here.

And that scene right there.

Okay.

Cause the WIC can always be erroneous price.

Let me see price didn't investigate.

Go down below the bodies of the candles from a monthly standpoint, but how do

we use this for the Aussie morphic?

Go back to the Aussie.

If you look at the relationship from the December low

December low

and 2015 in December low in 2016, we have a higher level.

If we go to the dollar index and we use the December high to the December

high in 2015, we had a higher high, so we had a higher high in dollar.

We didn't get a lower, low in.

So from a market structure standpoint, we have SMT diversions in here.

Okay.

So relatively speaking, Aussie dollars unwilling to make a lower, low, where the

dollar was able to make a higher high.

Okay.

So this means that this is always going to be potentially what a stop run, a

false break above old high, and the accumulation is being seen in Aussie.

Now we went into consolidation.

Now we came down to a low.

And we rallied away.

So we took out this down closed candle, making this a bullet shorter block,

take the open on the lowest down close candle, right there

is your bullet shorter block.

We talked about this in the mentorship price on June opened, traded down to that

monthly or a box open 73 80 right there.

Okay.

So opens trades down right at that.

So now what we have is we have a range.

Okay.

We have a range this high and this low.

Okay.

This is the most recent high.

This is the most recent low.

So in terms of definition of what those ranges are, this is going to be

for a PD PDA rate, a PD array matrix.

Rather.

Good grief.

Easy for me to say it now.

So here's our range.

Okay.

And I'm gonna take this off now.

Cause S and T divergence has already been described.

So at this moment, right here at the end of may, before July, I'm sorry.

Before June, rather it starts trading.

We define our PDRs from this point here below us, we have one.

The bull shoulder block.

There's no gap in here.

Cause the Wix and all that.

And then below that is the rejection block at the close at 72 16 and

then below the low with which of the liquidity pool or sell stops.

So there's your discount erase?

Did it have every one of them in here?

Was there a liquidity void in there?

No.

Was there a vacuum gap?

We, we talked about them.

No, there's not.

Okay.

Was there a.

No, there's no breaker there either.

Okay.

You only left with three choices, bull shorter block projection block old, low.

There's no old high back here to refer to either.

Okay, so you have three potential discount rates now what's that?

No people make this a lot harder than it has to be because I gave you the PDA race.

Doesn't mean not every print price range is going to have every single one of them.

Okay.

And chances are, they're not going to be there.

Uh, there's only going to be a few sometimes.

And that's the ones you find on the chart.

Is this, uh, it's an ambiguous.

No, it's, it's definitive.

It's actually tells you exactly what you're looking for.

You're a block rejection block.

Oh.

Low for liquidity pool.

Okay.

So you only have three choices here.

The first one you get to, is this your block?

It opens trades down to it.

Now that could potentially be a trade by itself.

You have to justify what's going on here.

Is there a reason to see price go higher here?

Well, we'll have to figure that out when we get into lower timeframes,

but right in here, we would expect this to be a support level.

Okay.

So we have this specific handles.

Opening is 73 80.

Do we need to round that to anything?

No, it's at rate at 80 it's at a zero level.

Okay.

If it were a 73, um, 82, we would round it to 73 85.

Okay.

Because it's above and we're trading down to it.

So we have our range there.

And also if we define the range that we just did here,

there's our high to low and.

Equilibrium's up here.

So we're below equilibrium in a discount market at a discount array.

So all the frameworks there for our PDA matrix.

And now we have our key levels which are here and just that quick, we've already

arrived at what we would translate into a potentially bullish scenario because

June is a seasonal tendency month when we should see Australian dollar rally before.

The last three months go lower.

So a quarterly shift is in order.

It's been an retracement.

So is it retracing?

Okay.

Was it retracing down into an order block seasonally expecting higher

prices and we're in a consolidation.

So what's above the consolidation during the market profile,

a portion of this by stops.

So we were going to be targeting a run above the range, highs in

here, and that's going to be here.

Sorry.

Hi.

And then we got a rejection block over here, a little bit farther to the left.

So once we breach this, the next area of interest would be the

highest close right in here.

And we will even went through that.

Okay.

So just that quick, that's how we arrive at whether the market is bullish.

Or bearish monthly in this case, we think we've seen in math that rather quickly

I've done more talking than was required to determine what it is and what the

range is and what the actual levels are.

But just that quick, we can arrive at a.

For the market from a monthly standpoint.

And the expectation is not just one month, but several months.

And right now we've had the month of June and July deliver very handsome rewards

for being a long trader on all the dollar.

And from a day trader standpoint, you can use these ideas to build in scalping

and intraday trading only on the long side during this month of June and July,

because we're expecting this monthly.

To, uh, the confirm our expectations relative to our

analysis on a monthly chart.

So hopefully this has been insightful to you.

Um, obviously we'll be building on this theme as we go through the entire month.

Um, the next teaching's going to be the intermediate term timeframe

and how I do the analysis.

And you can see just how quick that was.

It wasn't a lot of work now with it.

I didn't do a whole lot of acrobatics and do any of that stuff, but at the

same time, There's so many things you can add to this, to confirm and qualify.

For instance, if we're looking at the Australian dollar and the

monthly, one of the things that supports this currency also is it

moves very well with the S and P.

So if we compare what the S and P is doing okay, in here, if it's, if the

S P is going up, which we know it has been going up, uh, that supports this,

uh, this pair as well, because Ozzy usually tracks the S and P really well.

And it's going to close this teaching and, um, let's see, over

on the intermediate term analysis.