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Okay folks.
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Welcome back.
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This is second and fourth teachings in a
final delivery month of art mentorship.
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This teaching is ICT intermediate
term top-down analysis.
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Weekly to daily.
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Okay.
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Again, like on the previous monthly to
weekly presentation, what I'm doing is
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I'm giving you my personal approach.
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This is how I do it.
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And again, it's this, this is a
model, but this is how I go through
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the process of taking the information
I've gleaned from the monthly
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chart and transposing it to the.
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Now weekly information I give you
here will be transposed to the daily.
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Now most of this is going to be basically
verbatim what we saw on the monthly chart,
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which is the reason why I tell you we went
through 11 and a half months of content.
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It seems like an, uh, an amazing
Olympic feat to do, but you have
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all this information, but you
haven't had any idea of what to do
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with it specifically in an order.
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And I told you from the beginning, once
you get to this month, you'll see just
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how easy it is to use the information.
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And it doesn't take a lot of time.
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Uh, Element of time that is required
is you getting used to doing it?
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So that way you understand what
you're looking for and it makes
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your analysis quicker now does mean
shortcuts are the way to profits.
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It doesn't mean you half
rear end approaches.
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If you will.
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Like my grandfather, he's
telling me don't don't half ass.
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Anything.
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Uh, if you.
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Do a half ass attempt at your analysis?
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Well, don't be surprised if you get
lackluster results, but once you
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understand what it is specifically
you're doing and how you're breaking the
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market down, it does not take long folks.
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It does not take long.
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I'm actually going to spend more time
talking and describing what it is that
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you have to do then if you just did it.
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So the focus on this presentation much
like on the monthly to weekly is we're
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going to determine the impact of the
weekly perspective on any asset or.
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We're going to identify the directional
bias, where the higher timeframe,
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weekly chart, we're going to classify
the PD erased accurately to assist
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in key levels and complete an
institutional analysis on a weekly basis.
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Okay.
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Folks.
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The first thing I start with
when I'm doing a new week is I
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start with relative strength.
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Now, the reason why I start with
relative strength is I may not have
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a clear picture from the monthly and
to avoid any needless frustration.
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If the monthly charts don't really speak
well to me, then I'll just go through
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the process of, uh, doing in a relative
strength analysis, uh, on the assets
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and the specific currencies or stocks or
futures markets down, looking to treat.
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After I do my relative strength analysis,
I go into the commitment of traders.
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And what I'll do is I'll go through
all the currencies and commodities
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and I'll look for extremes in
the readings and the commercials.
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And I'll give you the specifics when
we get to the breakdown on what is
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on looking for, but, uh, it goes
from relative strengths analysis.
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And then once I have what I believe is.
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The leaders or my watch list,
if you will, from my relative
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strength analysis, hopefully the
trades that I find on a monthly.
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Like we did with the Australian
dollar and the previous teaching
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with the monthly to weekly.
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Um, hopefully that Australian
dollar makes the cut for the
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relative strengths analysis.
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And we'll take a look at that as
our continuing example, but then
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we go into commitment as traders.
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And I like to look for what
the commercials are doing.
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I'm going to get a read on what
those hearts those hedges are
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doing because they're well-informed
and they usually make the tops
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and bottoms in the marketplace.
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So if we can get their readings
in extreme, Uh, basis, then we can
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try to trade in the middle where
the majority of the move has made.
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After that, I do a market sentiment
analysis and I go through a
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couple of different things that
arrive at market sentiment.
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And I'll share that with
you in this teaching.
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Once they arrive at a market
sentiment and opinion.
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Then I started breaking the
market down in a technical fashion
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like we did with the monthly.
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So there's a couple things missing
here that we saw in the monthly that
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is not in the weekly, uh, portion.
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Um, we had.
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Three different things that started
off the monthly new, we have three
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different things before the weekly here.
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So I will get down to a weekly chart.
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We're starting to look at more of
opinions of others versus just technicals.
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And we weigh them against the
technical strength and weakness by
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way of the relative strength analysis.
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Once we arrive at our watch list and
we determined which markets are field.
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Commercial hedging.
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And then we also blend in market
sentiment ideas with everyone else
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in the retail world is thinking,
ah, because ideally you want to be
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diametrically opposed to that in an
alignment with what smart money is doing.
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So market profile is the next thing
I look at and I start breaking
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down what the weekly looks like
in terms of market profile.
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Is it in consolidation?
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Is it in a trending environment?
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There's types of things.
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And just like we did with the monthly, the
same thing applies here on the weekend.
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Okay.
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After I do market profiling, I look at
intermarket analysis on a weekly basis.
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So I start comparing what the
weekly charts look like in
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other, uh, correlated markets.
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And I compare likes and price action
with positive and negatively correlated
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assets and markets with the market.
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I'm looking to treat.
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So in other words, in an example, I
could be looking at, you know, um,
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the dollar versus, uh, you know, to
Keely on a weekly basis and seeing
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if there's, uh, you know, intermarket
analysis, supporting an idea it may
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have for the dollar or for the Kiwi.
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After that I start looking
at market structure.
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And at this point I want to start blending
in incorporating institutional order flow.
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Now institutional order flow.
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I want to be looking for down
close candle, supporting price and
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a closed candles being broken in.
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Or a bullish market structure.
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And I want to see up close candles,
resisting price and down closed.
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Candle is breaking as market
structure is indicating lower prices.
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So everything we mentioned in previous
about the monthly applies, but now
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we're gonna start looking heavily
for institutional sponsorship,
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uh, in, by studying the order.
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The next is I break down the
PDA rate matrix on a weekly
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and I'll do the same thing.
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On the monthly charts
on the weekly as well.
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So everything that I would break down in
terms of the range that's defined by now,
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the weekly chart, any PD array that didn't
exist in the monthly may now materialize
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in the weekly chart, because you're
gonna get much more definition because
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you're going into a lower timeframe.
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And after that, by having the
weekly PD rate matrix defined.
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Both premium and discount rays, then I
can start working towards calibrating
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my key price levels for support and
resistance or buy and sell areas.
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And then as a result, I come to a weekly
bias and it's defined in such a way
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where now I can take that information
and transpose that to the daily chart.
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So in greater detail, what I begin
with when I start my intermediate term
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analysis, I start with relative strength.
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So if the monthly analysis is not as
helpful as I hope, and, or it's not
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clear to me, you know, I begin my
weekly analysis with relative strength
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analysis across all asset classes.
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That means for commodities,
currencies, and stocks, I determine
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what markets lead in strength by
failing to make lower lows and lead
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in weakness by failing to make higher.
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I look for stocks in the top 30 industry
groups for strong stocks ranked by
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investors, business daily or IBD.
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And I'm going to actually do a separate
individual teaching as a topical study.
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So that way you'll see how I go through
and sort with IBDs, um, resources.
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So you can see me do it
and do the same thing.
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When you look for stocks as well.
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I look for longs and commodities that
bleed their respective futures group
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with higher lows relative to the others.
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And in the words, in the grains, I'm
going to find a market that doesn't
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make a lower low, and all the grains
should be bullish in dollars week.
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I look for longs and currencies
that fail to make lower lows
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relative to the other currencies.
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When the dollar index is weak.
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Um, I look for leadership and laggards.
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So I want to know what the hell.
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The strongest is, and the weakest,
when I'm doing my relative strength
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analysis concepts, next thing I
go into commitment of traders.
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And I want to know what the commercial
hedgers are dealing because the
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commercials they hedge in such a
large degree of buying and selling,
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they then sell end up creating the
highs and the lows are tops and
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the bottoms of the marketplace.
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Now, if you know what they're
most likely doing in terms of.
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Or low then, you know, you got a
long period of meet in the middle
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type move, or a range expansion
that's directionally bias.
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So by having this expectation about
what the commercials have already
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done in the marketplace, They're
going to be diametrically opposed
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to what the large funds are doing.
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And since we really want to be using
the commercials to give us the high
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and the low end of the range, based
on their extremes, we trade with
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the direction of the large funds in
between the middle, because you'll
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see they're diametrically opposed.
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So at the highs and the lows are
the tops in the bottom of the
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commercials are always right in
between those two price points.
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The large funds are accurate.
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They're right.
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That's why large funds continuously make
a lot of money, but at the extremes,
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they always get their ass handed to them.
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So.
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We want to know when the hedgers
are calling for a potential
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high or a potential low.
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And we work within the middle.
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I looked for the commercials
to be at a 12 month or six
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month extreme and net holdings.
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I also would like to sort markets
that are at two-year and four-year
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extremes now using my proprietary
CRT hedging program concept.
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I look for signs that commercials
are buying or selling.
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Now you're going to go back
and look at those teachings.
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It relates to that.
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I'm not going to teach it again here, but
I like to look for when the commercials
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are buying, when it doesn't appear.
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It's obvious.
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Like when we look at the zero
line on the net trader position
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chart that everyone looks at.
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If it's above the zero line,
I think they're buying well.
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They are, but they could also be
selling inside that, that range also.
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But you have to look at the 12
month extreme, high and low rating
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and dividing that in half, you
can actually get a better read
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on what their hedging program is.
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And also like to sort commodities
that have extremely large net holding.
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Compared to the futures groups
are they're part of, for instance,
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uh, I look at the grains again.
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Um, if there's a huge astronomical,
uh, amount of net long positions in
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the soybean market versus then that of
all the other grain markets, generally,
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that's going to be an indicative of
them, uh, seeing a big move as well.
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Alright market sentiment reading.
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Um, I use headlines from financial
publications like investors business,
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daily Barron's wall street journal bloom.
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And I like the fade, the big story.
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Now, the news isn't always
going to be marked to market
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the very day it comes out.
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Sometimes it can.
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But generally when I, like, I like to see
storylines start building in a consensus
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or a sentiment idea about, you know,
doom and gloom or everything's great.
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This is the best bull market ever seen.
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And it's on fire or there's I like to use.
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Um, headlines or stories to have
real big descriptive adjectives,
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you know, something that gets
things emotionally charged, okay.
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The more emotionally charged
or descriptive they are.
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And the more that they occur, generally,
that builds in a sentiment idea.
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And I haunt forums, uh, you know,
for retail thinking and to further
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build my sentiment opinion.
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So I go to all the well-known,
uh, forums online and.
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I want to do like a trade in the cable.
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I'll go and look at what
all the retail minded, uh,
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individuals are going to do there.
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It's uncanny, uncanny when the
technicals are in line, like I teach it.
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And in the sentiment idea, they're
saying that a hundred percent opposite
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of what we expect is same price.
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It's unbelievable how it's this
like diametrically opposed.
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And as a technical market sentiment
reading, I use a Williams percent.
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And yes, I said the word indicator,
uh, I use a percent are on a weekly
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chart in periods of 2014 period and 10.
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00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:50,490
Now they're not all three applied.
232
00:13:50,700 --> 00:13:51,060
Okay.
233
00:13:51,090 --> 00:13:52,980
There's the three settings
that I like to use.
234
00:13:53,700 --> 00:13:58,920
And what I do is I look for which one
is the most accurately, um, depicting
235
00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:02,910
or overlaps with the previous important
highs and lows that's done in the past.
236
00:14:03,210 --> 00:14:04,500
Nothing's going to be perfect.
237
00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:04,800
Okay.
238
00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,460
But I like to have a technical
sentiment indicator in concert
239
00:14:08,460 --> 00:14:09,630
with what I'm seeing in the.
240
00:14:10,635 --> 00:14:14,415
For retail thinking and what I'm seeing
in the storylines, in the newspapers or
241
00:14:14,834 --> 00:14:17,805
the articles or whatever I see on CNBC.
242
00:14:18,224 --> 00:14:21,405
So when all three of these things come
together, that builds my sentiment.
243
00:14:24,584 --> 00:14:24,885
All right.
244
00:14:24,944 --> 00:14:28,875
And what profile is marketing much
like we did with the monthly chart on
245
00:14:28,875 --> 00:14:31,724
this breeze right through it, because
it's very, it's basically the verbatim
246
00:14:32,324 --> 00:14:34,425
is the market under consolidation.
247
00:14:34,665 --> 00:14:37,604
If it's yes and expansive, they're likely
to show evidence prior to a breakout.
248
00:14:38,310 --> 00:14:43,410
Um, we can start seeing things that lead
well to, um, a directional bias that
249
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,079
will move outside that consolidation.
250
00:14:46,319 --> 00:14:48,150
Cause we want to know what the
next moves are going to be.
251
00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,140
And if it's not in consolidation, that
trend might be reaching an extreme.
252
00:14:52,199 --> 00:14:56,819
And if it is, it may be a retracement,
not only a reversal, but I always like to
253
00:14:56,819 --> 00:14:58,560
see retracement first as my first choice.
254
00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:02,160
And is the market under
study, um, trending.
255
00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:06,000
And if it is trending, you, I'm always
going to be citing or looking for
256
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,960
continuation trades to avoid the top
and pick a top and bottom picking.
257
00:15:10,590 --> 00:15:13,950
And if it's not trending, I look for
science to support a directional breakout.
258
00:15:13,950 --> 00:15:16,189
And while I think consolidation
and I use it to market analysis.
259
00:15:17,850 --> 00:15:20,069
And is the market under a retracement.
260
00:15:20,610 --> 00:15:22,680
And these are the, this is the
third question I asked myself.
261
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,890
And if it's under retracement, then
I look for science for continuation
262
00:15:25,890 --> 00:15:28,110
of the trade, post retracement.
263
00:15:28,380 --> 00:15:30,390
And think about what I showed
you in the monthly teaching.
264
00:15:30,810 --> 00:15:34,260
As the monthly chart was retracing for the
Australian dollar, it retraced down into
265
00:15:34,260 --> 00:15:35,699
a bullet shorter block on a monthly basis.
266
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,760
And that would be an ideal
scenario for us to go long.
267
00:15:39,630 --> 00:15:42,240
But if it's not retracing,
then I have to determine if
268
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:43,740
it's consolidation or trending.
269
00:15:43,860 --> 00:15:45,560
And I used the above ideas to get more.
270
00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:49,530
And that's what I do for market profiling
on the weekly chart, just like I did
271
00:15:49,530 --> 00:15:54,689
on the monthly and everything that
we saw on the monthly for intermarket
272
00:15:54,689 --> 00:15:56,400
analysis, it's done here as well.
273
00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:02,220
And if I have a bullish market
structure, uh, determined in my market
274
00:16:02,220 --> 00:16:05,490
of interest, you know, if I look for,
into market analysis to support the idea
275
00:16:05,490 --> 00:16:09,960
of positively correlated markets and
opposed to it in negatively correlated
276
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,635
markets, Example bullet a bullish pound.
277
00:16:14,025 --> 00:16:16,365
I'd like to see a weak
us dollar technically.
278
00:16:16,425 --> 00:16:20,235
And if it's a bearish market structure
determined in my market of interest, I
279
00:16:20,235 --> 00:16:23,235
look for intermarket analysis, support
the idea in positively correlated
280
00:16:23,235 --> 00:16:28,065
markets and opposed to it in negatively
correlated markets example would be bare
281
00:16:28,185 --> 00:16:30,375
us dollar and strong Eurodollar tech.
282
00:16:31,470 --> 00:16:34,770
And after that I go into market structure.
283
00:16:34,770 --> 00:16:39,000
And again, I want to start incorporating
institutional order flow here, looking
284
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:44,310
for, um, premium arrays, breaking
in bullish markets in discount
285
00:16:44,310 --> 00:16:46,680
rate, supporting price and reverses.
286
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:52,560
When it's bearish, I want to see a premium
erase, uh, resisting price and discount
287
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:57,170
rates breaking down and not providing any
kind of support, uh, that goes in concert
288
00:16:57,180 --> 00:16:58,590
with normal market structure as outlined.
289
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,280
So I'm going to be defining the current
market structure on a weekly basis.
290
00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:07,410
Current market structure, I looked at
classify every high and low relative
291
00:17:07,410 --> 00:17:13,260
to SMT ideas, you know, comparing it
to a dollar or correlated pair SMT.
292
00:17:13,589 --> 00:17:18,089
In other words, a Euro
to cable, um, or Euro to.
293
00:17:19,454 --> 00:17:23,954
So you have USD ex SMT and
correlated pair SMT on the weekly.
294
00:17:23,954 --> 00:17:27,585
I started using it there and like
on the monthly, I compared the
295
00:17:27,585 --> 00:17:29,774
relationship with the highs to
recent highs, the determinants of
296
00:17:29,774 --> 00:17:33,465
long intermediate or short-term
high is in control price presently.
297
00:17:33,975 --> 00:17:36,885
And like on the monthly, I compare
the relationship to the lows,
298
00:17:36,915 --> 00:17:38,264
to recent lows to determine if.
299
00:17:39,435 --> 00:17:42,044
Is a longterm intermediate
term or short term low.
300
00:17:42,195 --> 00:17:45,435
And if it's in control price, presently
trade selected in the direction
301
00:17:45,435 --> 00:17:48,495
of the current market structure
and monthly directional bias are
302
00:17:48,495 --> 00:17:50,385
going to be favored in my analysis
303
00:17:53,805 --> 00:17:56,024
in, uh, obviously like we did
it, the monthly I'm going to be
304
00:17:56,024 --> 00:17:57,524
locating institutional focus points.
305
00:17:58,575 --> 00:18:01,485
Uh, once I arrive at a portion of
price action, I wish to analyze,
306
00:18:01,905 --> 00:18:04,395
I break down the selected price
range into premium and discount.
307
00:18:05,145 --> 00:18:09,255
Uh, not every price range we'll have every
possible premium and or discount array.
308
00:18:09,735 --> 00:18:13,905
I'm going to just note the ones that
are obvious in the weekly range and
309
00:18:13,935 --> 00:18:18,045
both premium and discount rates are
going to be identified and I'll look
310
00:18:18,315 --> 00:18:22,485
to build potential trade ideas based
on PDRs and referring to all previous
311
00:18:22,485 --> 00:18:25,815
analysis points thus mentioned
in this weekly to daily presence.
312
00:18:29,815 --> 00:18:33,645
I'm going to be noting the key
price levels relative to the
313
00:18:33,645 --> 00:18:38,055
premium and discount raised on the
weekly and wants determined the
314
00:18:38,055 --> 00:18:39,045
portions of the market structure.
315
00:18:39,045 --> 00:18:40,695
I want to use for my trade ideas.
316
00:18:41,145 --> 00:18:45,675
Like on the monthly, I round each
PD array to the nearest 10 level or
317
00:18:45,705 --> 00:18:49,845
five level and premium raise above
the market price are calibrated and
318
00:18:49,845 --> 00:18:51,975
rounded down to the nearest adjusted.
319
00:18:52,740 --> 00:18:55,530
And discounted rates below the
market price are calibrated and
320
00:18:55,530 --> 00:18:59,670
rounded up to the nearest adjusted
number, either five or 10 level.
321
00:19:02,070 --> 00:19:05,190
And we end with a weekly bias.
322
00:19:06,060 --> 00:19:10,670
So after I refer to relative strength for
leaders and laggards, I go into commitment
323
00:19:10,690 --> 00:19:16,290
traders, and I look for the buying and
selling based on their standard zero line.
324
00:19:16,590 --> 00:19:18,180
Are they above or below the zero line?
325
00:19:18,450 --> 00:19:20,250
And then I break it down into my hedging.
326
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,750
Concept where we can look at the last
12 months and look at the highest high
327
00:19:24,750 --> 00:19:29,460
and the lowest low of just their net
holdings and disregard the zero line.
328
00:19:29,490 --> 00:19:32,970
Everybody else uses for net
traders, position, uh, grass, and
329
00:19:32,970 --> 00:19:35,100
then split that in half and above.
330
00:19:35,100 --> 00:19:36,930
It will be buying and
billowing will be selling.
331
00:19:36,930 --> 00:19:40,530
And I, again, I've done a teaching
about that and you guys can
332
00:19:40,530 --> 00:19:41,970
not refer back to that as well.
333
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,920
If you have any more questions
about after we get through this
334
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,800
month's content, obviously we have
plenty of time to go over that.
335
00:19:47,685 --> 00:19:49,605
Uh, that I determined the market
sentiment based on there's
336
00:19:49,605 --> 00:19:51,075
three principle approaches.
337
00:19:51,765 --> 00:19:54,825
And then I confirm my analysis
with market correlation.
338
00:19:55,365 --> 00:19:58,275
So either a USD, X, SMT, or.
339
00:19:58,980 --> 00:20:04,200
Quarterly a pair SMT and, or
like for instance, like dollar to
340
00:20:04,230 --> 00:20:07,470
commodities in a dollar going down
commodities, going higher, uh, those
341
00:20:07,470 --> 00:20:10,050
types of things, I'm looking for
that to occur on the weekly chart.
342
00:20:10,710 --> 00:20:14,220
And I select a portion of market
structure to frame a trade within.
343
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,090
And then I defined a PD rays
to arrive at key levels within
344
00:20:18,090 --> 00:20:19,320
that range on the weekly chart.
345
00:20:19,890 --> 00:20:23,340
And by that time I will have
arrived at a directional based
346
00:20:23,340 --> 00:20:26,400
analysis and a weekly timeframe.
347
00:20:28,225 --> 00:20:30,535
That gets transposed over to the daily.
348
00:20:31,675 --> 00:20:34,795
So what we're going to do now is when
we returned back to our Aussie dollar
349
00:20:34,795 --> 00:20:38,695
example and break that down, all the
things we've done here, we're gonna apply
350
00:20:38,695 --> 00:20:40,705
it to that weekly to daily principle.
351
00:20:43,335 --> 00:20:43,665
Okay.
352
00:20:43,665 --> 00:20:46,275
We're back on our Aussie
dollars as a monthly.
353
00:20:46,365 --> 00:20:50,535
And all I did was changed some
colors to keep it in better.
354
00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:52,170
Clarity.
355
00:20:52,980 --> 00:20:57,540
We have a rejection block over here and
our old height landed here as premium res.
356
00:20:58,210 --> 00:21:01,050
So it's our range defined
by our low and our high.
357
00:21:01,110 --> 00:21:02,310
And it's, what's the discount rate.
358
00:21:02,310 --> 00:21:08,130
It was the nearest below price actually,
as we started June or shorter block, that
359
00:21:08,130 --> 00:21:09,780
means threshold would be in here as well.
360
00:21:09,780 --> 00:21:11,130
But I'm just going to
try to keep it clean.
361
00:21:11,820 --> 00:21:13,500
And then we have the
rejection block, lowest close.
362
00:21:14,534 --> 00:21:18,945
And then we have the low itself that would
be identified and liquidity pool below it.
363
00:21:19,334 --> 00:21:27,495
So on the upside, we had one, two premium
rate, and then we had another, that we'll
364
00:21:27,495 --> 00:21:31,574
add here, which is the old high here.
365
00:21:33,524 --> 00:21:35,175
And then there'll be another one.
366
00:21:35,175 --> 00:21:36,345
Should this one break?
367
00:21:37,814 --> 00:21:42,195
The next PD array on a premium
premium basis would be.
368
00:21:43,335 --> 00:21:50,975
The last up-close candle, which would be a
bullish or block on a monthly standpoint.
369
00:21:51,575 --> 00:21:55,504
And again, we're getting a little
rich with the, uh, objectives in
370
00:21:55,504 --> 00:21:58,235
terms of premium now, but I just
want to show you how you would
371
00:21:58,235 --> 00:22:00,245
just keep walking out with this.
372
00:22:01,475 --> 00:22:06,274
And then we have somewhat of a
fair value gap in here as well.
373
00:22:06,425 --> 00:22:07,774
So we can identify that.
374
00:22:11,970 --> 00:22:15,930
So we had that to this high here.
375
00:22:16,890 --> 00:22:22,290
So there's all of our premium
arrays on the Australian monthly.
376
00:22:22,950 --> 00:22:23,310
Okay.
377
00:22:23,460 --> 00:22:27,060
So now once we have all this now,
um, once this range has been broken
378
00:22:27,060 --> 00:22:30,840
to, from this low to this high,
so now this range has no longer.
379
00:22:31,665 --> 00:22:32,205
Valid.
380
00:22:32,325 --> 00:22:32,655
Okay.
381
00:22:32,655 --> 00:22:37,095
So now we had price trained outside
for external liquidity, external
382
00:22:37,095 --> 00:22:40,845
range liquidity, and now the
next range high would be up here.
383
00:22:41,925 --> 00:22:46,185
So if this high was to be broken,
then we would start looking for
384
00:22:48,075 --> 00:22:52,005
fair value gap to define the range
and then the bullish shorter block.
385
00:22:52,035 --> 00:22:53,475
And you would just keep expanding that up.
386
00:22:53,535 --> 00:22:53,895
Okay.
387
00:22:54,885 --> 00:22:57,645
And should this bullet short
bucket way we would be looking for.
388
00:22:59,820 --> 00:23:05,340
This, all this downside delivery on price
to be rebalanced, but that's so far away
389
00:23:05,340 --> 00:23:08,970
and not germane to the discussion at the
moment, but that's how we would do it.
390
00:23:09,270 --> 00:23:12,149
So now we're going to drop down
into, and again, this line here just
391
00:23:12,149 --> 00:23:18,629
delineates the, uh, the beginning of
may and, uh, on the monthly chart.
392
00:23:19,889 --> 00:23:21,899
So now we have to adjust it to.
393
00:23:23,130 --> 00:23:26,640
June, because we're going to drop
down to a weekly and we want to
394
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,530
see all the relative price action.
395
00:23:28,620 --> 00:23:33,360
So now we have everything that was on the
monthly transposed to the weekly chart.
396
00:23:34,050 --> 00:23:38,850
So now we have all of our premium
rates, discount rates are identified
397
00:23:38,850 --> 00:23:43,860
here and again, our initial range
was defined by this high and this
398
00:23:43,860 --> 00:23:46,680
low, once this high was formed.
399
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:52,230
This range is no longer valid, but
we do refer back to it as a discount
400
00:23:52,230 --> 00:23:54,420
array because it's below price.
401
00:23:55,290 --> 00:23:58,770
So we would come back down to this
potentially as a support level, but
402
00:23:58,770 --> 00:24:05,550
we would look to justify why price
may still reach up into the 80 threes.
403
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:06,480
Okay.
404
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:12,030
On, uh, or 80 to nineties from
a monthly premium array basis.
405
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:14,970
But I want you to take a look at how.
406
00:24:17,105 --> 00:24:23,075
The price levels from the monthly
are going to be used in the weekly.
407
00:24:25,115 --> 00:24:30,155
Once we go through relative strength,
we were looking at the Lowe's in here
408
00:24:30,754 --> 00:24:32,855
relative to the Australian dollar.
409
00:24:33,545 --> 00:24:35,225
And we're going to take a look at the.
410
00:24:36,900 --> 00:24:39,240
Dollar index at the same time.
411
00:24:39,390 --> 00:24:44,250
And we can see there was really no,
uh, disparity amongst the two markets
412
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,090
Aussie was calling for higher, whereas
the dollar was looking weak as well.
413
00:24:48,090 --> 00:24:49,530
So you would see lower prices.
414
00:24:52,860 --> 00:24:58,200
So from a relative strength
standpoint, no disparity in here.
415
00:24:58,350 --> 00:24:59,520
So everything is confirming it.
416
00:24:59,550 --> 00:25:04,830
So we have weakness in the dollar
is expected and strength in.
417
00:25:06,190 --> 00:25:06,370
Okay.
418
00:25:06,370 --> 00:25:08,230
So we didn't see any crack
and correlation there.
419
00:25:08,380 --> 00:25:11,830
So everything looks healthy for this move
to transpire what the seasonal tendency
420
00:25:11,830 --> 00:25:18,490
for June to be higher, we get the higher
move off of the bullshitter block.
421
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:19,300
Okay.
422
00:25:19,300 --> 00:25:22,060
From a monthly standpoint, which
is what this level is here.
423
00:25:22,060 --> 00:25:26,770
This is the monthly bullish or
block, but notice also that price.
424
00:25:27,750 --> 00:25:32,220
Inside this range prior to the move
out right here, this low to high.
425
00:25:32,220 --> 00:25:35,310
And let's look at this whole entire
range, a little bit more detail.
426
00:25:36,030 --> 00:25:41,580
We have this candle here where
once it took off about this
427
00:25:41,610 --> 00:25:43,919
short-term high on this candle.
428
00:25:44,669 --> 00:25:50,280
So above 9 73, 57 only buy-side
deliveries offered until it
429
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:51,750
came back down and rebalanced.
430
00:25:52,409 --> 00:25:55,199
The high on this candle comes in at 73 56.
431
00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,540
The low on this candle comes in at 73, 29.
432
00:26:00,540 --> 00:26:03,689
So it more than comes
down and rebalances that.
433
00:26:04,530 --> 00:26:05,790
So we have a rebalance point.
434
00:26:05,790 --> 00:26:09,780
We can take this order block now and
refine it down to this level here,
435
00:26:10,469 --> 00:26:13,649
get a little bit more detail in terms
of where the low may form in this
436
00:26:13,649 --> 00:26:15,360
retracement that we saw on a monthly.
437
00:26:16,050 --> 00:26:21,600
So we have a more refined, uh, PDRs
for a discount, but this level here.
438
00:26:24,725 --> 00:26:27,905
If we look at these two candles
here, which makes a weekly bullet,
439
00:26:27,905 --> 00:26:33,655
shorter block, all these things
help us align ourselves with a much
440
00:26:33,655 --> 00:26:37,435
more refined in calibrated level.
441
00:26:37,795 --> 00:26:39,145
We have equilibrium in here.
442
00:26:39,175 --> 00:26:42,805
So price, we don't want to see it
go down to that level or through it.
443
00:26:44,275 --> 00:26:46,945
I mean, I shouldn't say shouldn't,
it can go down to it, but we just
444
00:26:46,945 --> 00:26:48,775
don't want to see it violate.
445
00:26:50,105 --> 00:26:52,115
And that's that level there.
446
00:26:52,145 --> 00:26:53,135
And we'll get rid of this now.
447
00:26:53,554 --> 00:26:56,135
So now we have a little bit more
detail in terms of our discount.
448
00:26:56,135 --> 00:26:58,205
Raise price trades down.
449
00:26:58,685 --> 00:27:04,115
Find some support at the bullshitter block
and fair value gap on weekly and price.
450
00:27:04,145 --> 00:27:07,745
Now trades through this up-close candle.
451
00:27:08,074 --> 00:27:08,345
I'm sorry.
452
00:27:08,345 --> 00:27:11,225
This down close candle is
violated up-close candle.
453
00:27:11,225 --> 00:27:15,334
So this becomes a bullish order
block so we can anticipate
454
00:27:15,334 --> 00:27:16,895
price returning back to the.
455
00:27:21,120 --> 00:27:22,379
So we're incorporating
456
00:27:25,409 --> 00:27:27,720
institutional order flow in here.
457
00:27:27,810 --> 00:27:31,830
Beautiful delivery of price
there with this low body.
458
00:27:32,220 --> 00:27:36,629
This candle is opening and runs
away and reaches for the buy-side
459
00:27:36,629 --> 00:27:40,199
liquidity, resting of both equal highs
and above the range, which is what
460
00:27:40,199 --> 00:27:41,490
these levels are here for the monthly.
461
00:27:42,389 --> 00:27:44,159
And also we're starting to see.
462
00:27:45,195 --> 00:27:47,835
Come in with the down
close candles in here.
463
00:27:49,005 --> 00:27:49,365
Okay.
464
00:27:50,085 --> 00:27:54,105
The bodies, the open
on this candle, 75 57.
465
00:27:54,135 --> 00:27:59,444
Draw that out in time to closes 75 71.
466
00:27:59,445 --> 00:28:03,825
The open on this candle is 75 68.
467
00:28:05,805 --> 00:28:07,965
This down close came up,
becomes a bullish or block.
468
00:28:07,965 --> 00:28:12,255
When this candle trades through it, we
find retreated back down into it here.
469
00:28:13,155 --> 00:28:14,355
Price then runs away.
470
00:28:15,179 --> 00:28:18,330
Creates the run or for a lower
resistance liquidity run resting
471
00:28:18,330 --> 00:28:19,500
of both these equal highs.
472
00:28:21,810 --> 00:28:22,020
Okay.
473
00:28:22,020 --> 00:28:26,939
So we can see the element of institutional
order flow seen in the weekly chart
474
00:28:26,970 --> 00:28:28,590
now, supporting price, moving higher.
475
00:28:30,419 --> 00:28:30,629
Okay.
476
00:28:30,629 --> 00:28:35,129
We're looking at the commitment of chairs
report, and this is the Australian dollar.
477
00:28:36,555 --> 00:28:40,274
And I've already done the,
uh, hedging program concept.
478
00:28:40,274 --> 00:28:41,535
That's unique to me.
479
00:28:42,045 --> 00:28:45,075
Uh, you can see the actual,
real institutional buying
480
00:28:45,075 --> 00:28:46,155
and selling when you do this.
481
00:28:46,485 --> 00:28:50,115
And what I did was I highlighted
the beginning of June.
482
00:28:50,535 --> 00:28:51,375
You would have done this.
483
00:28:51,705 --> 00:28:52,155
Okay.
484
00:28:52,185 --> 00:28:55,305
And it's hard to see with
this, but it's the red line.
485
00:28:56,145 --> 00:28:56,325
Okay.
486
00:28:56,325 --> 00:29:01,695
Here's a red line all up here and
it stairsteps down, goes to here.
487
00:29:01,695 --> 00:29:04,845
It goes back up, goes down, goes back up.
488
00:29:05,909 --> 00:29:09,389
Damn stays down here and then
goes back up for a period of
489
00:29:09,389 --> 00:29:10,620
time, then it drops down again.
490
00:29:10,950 --> 00:29:11,340
Okay.
491
00:29:12,210 --> 00:29:17,460
Um, what I did was at June, I went
back 12 months to the previous year's
492
00:29:17,490 --> 00:29:19,139
June, which is this line right here.
493
00:29:19,860 --> 00:29:20,220
Okay.
494
00:29:20,730 --> 00:29:26,370
And that was the highest reading
since that time to June of 2017.
495
00:29:26,820 --> 00:29:28,200
And I looked for the lowest low.
496
00:29:29,460 --> 00:29:29,909
Okay.
497
00:29:29,940 --> 00:29:31,200
And I just used the.
498
00:29:32,115 --> 00:29:34,725
Reading down here, went back to
the may just to make sure I got
499
00:29:34,725 --> 00:29:36,014
a good range to work within.
500
00:29:36,825 --> 00:29:42,225
And that split that range
in half to high and the low.
501
00:29:43,274 --> 00:29:44,415
And this is the midway point.
502
00:29:44,415 --> 00:29:47,445
So it becomes basically this
zero line it's normally on net
503
00:29:47,445 --> 00:29:48,675
trade, your position chart.
504
00:29:49,485 --> 00:29:55,125
I, uh, you used the 12 months
range and 12 month range.
505
00:29:55,754 --> 00:29:57,945
If you split it in half the
highest and the lowest and
506
00:29:57,945 --> 00:30:00,135
divide it in half, you get this.
507
00:30:01,275 --> 00:30:02,625
Ebb and flow type thing.
508
00:30:03,525 --> 00:30:04,005
Okay.
509
00:30:04,515 --> 00:30:07,605
And when I started doing this
for commodities and looking at
510
00:30:07,605 --> 00:30:11,235
futures contracts and such, um,
especially with currencies, it
511
00:30:11,235 --> 00:30:13,785
became like a huge light bulb.
512
00:30:13,905 --> 00:30:16,155
You can't, they can't
hide from you anymore.
513
00:30:16,515 --> 00:30:19,845
See, I think they started messing
with the data, the screw up
514
00:30:19,845 --> 00:30:24,405
the, uh, the presentation of
the cot net position charts.
515
00:30:25,095 --> 00:30:27,555
And by having that, like this.
516
00:30:30,375 --> 00:30:35,055
It gives us a, um, actually I think
it just took away some of that green.
517
00:30:35,055 --> 00:30:36,875
Didn't get it.
518
00:30:37,695 --> 00:30:39,165
Anyway, this should go a
little bit higher than that.
519
00:30:39,225 --> 00:30:44,085
This should all be green in here and I'll
show you what a, how I did it in a second.
520
00:30:44,085 --> 00:30:48,165
But the main point is in June, right
here, you can see that they were
521
00:30:48,165 --> 00:30:53,595
above the modified ICT hedging program
concept, where you can see when
522
00:30:53,595 --> 00:30:54,825
they're hedging and buying and selling.
523
00:30:55,485 --> 00:30:58,305
So just real quick, look, you
can see during the buy time.
524
00:30:59,655 --> 00:31:00,615
They bought the low here.
525
00:31:01,215 --> 00:31:06,285
And during this red time here,
they sold down, went long in here.
526
00:31:06,735 --> 00:31:09,735
We had that rally up and
we had this selling here.
527
00:31:09,735 --> 00:31:13,305
When he sold into the rally,
then he bought it back in here
528
00:31:13,305 --> 00:31:16,425
at this low, they sold it again.
529
00:31:16,605 --> 00:31:18,015
And here was this, that decline.
530
00:31:18,315 --> 00:31:21,045
Then they bought it up again here,
which is this buy right here.
531
00:31:22,575 --> 00:31:23,295
And there's the runoff.
532
00:31:23,325 --> 00:31:31,545
So we had in our weekly to daily, uh,
procedure, we'd look for, uh, the seasonal
533
00:31:31,545 --> 00:31:34,035
influence for bullishness in June.
534
00:31:35,054 --> 00:31:36,435
To come into Australian dollar.
535
00:31:36,885 --> 00:31:38,534
We did our relative strength studies.
536
00:31:38,534 --> 00:31:44,475
We did see a SMT divergence on Aussie $2
Aussie was a failing to make a lower load
537
00:31:44,475 --> 00:31:46,665
when, um, dollar index made a higher high.
538
00:31:47,475 --> 00:31:49,905
And that was in place that was working.
539
00:31:50,084 --> 00:31:54,314
So the commitment of traders
report and graph as we'll show the
540
00:31:54,314 --> 00:31:57,254
I'll show you the original one in
contrast to what you're seeing.
541
00:31:58,635 --> 00:32:02,054
But cot data and the
ICT, uh, hedging program.
542
00:32:02,054 --> 00:32:03,495
Again, you can't find this anywhere else.
543
00:32:03,495 --> 00:32:04,635
Folks, you learned it here.
544
00:32:05,054 --> 00:32:10,215
So looking at this information, it
gives us when the commercials really
545
00:32:10,215 --> 00:32:11,415
buying and when they're really selling.
546
00:32:11,834 --> 00:32:12,225
Okay.
547
00:32:12,225 --> 00:32:15,104
And it's not always indicative
of what you would normally
548
00:32:15,104 --> 00:32:18,195
see in a standard cot graph.
549
00:32:19,004 --> 00:32:22,935
So we can see the real
institutional hedging right in here.
550
00:32:22,935 --> 00:32:23,895
What they're buying re.
551
00:32:24,915 --> 00:32:25,305
Okay.
552
00:32:25,665 --> 00:32:28,335
There's also, it happens right
when they closing the gap.
553
00:32:28,605 --> 00:32:31,545
So that only the buy-side
delivery here to this candles.
554
00:32:31,605 --> 00:32:34,275
Hi right down to it right there.
555
00:32:34,275 --> 00:32:35,115
Boom hits it.
556
00:32:35,175 --> 00:32:35,475
Okay.
557
00:32:35,475 --> 00:32:40,485
And in rallies away all overlapping
with them being net long notice
558
00:32:40,485 --> 00:32:42,915
that they aren't really net long
until they get a blood zero.
559
00:32:42,945 --> 00:32:46,935
If you look at the way everyone else looks
at the modestly bullish, there doesn't
560
00:32:46,935 --> 00:32:49,935
have to be, uh, uh, viewed like that.
561
00:32:50,145 --> 00:32:52,875
We can see this is actually a
big, massive increase of buying.
562
00:32:52,875 --> 00:32:54,045
Whereas if you can see when.
563
00:32:54,810 --> 00:32:56,010
Come down and close that gap.
564
00:32:56,580 --> 00:33:00,520
They were much longer using my
way of using cot data than that.
565
00:33:00,570 --> 00:33:04,320
Uh, the standard, uh, CIT graph,
which we'll look at in a moment now.
566
00:33:05,100 --> 00:33:07,200
So let's close this, uh, here.
567
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,570
Uh, you see what it looks like in paint?
568
00:33:10,380 --> 00:33:14,610
And all I did was did a right
click on bar chart, a chart.
569
00:33:14,850 --> 00:33:19,290
Once I applied a weekly contract and put
the cot data on a large presentation.
570
00:33:20,130 --> 00:33:20,340
Okay.
571
00:33:20,340 --> 00:33:23,730
And I'll show you what that looks like
when we go over to a bar chart.com.
572
00:33:24,750 --> 00:33:32,990
And what we do is I'm going to
take all this off and you can see
573
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:42,620
without it all in there, it's not
as a parent without the information.
574
00:33:43,070 --> 00:33:44,720
It's just looks like a
bunch of squiggly lines.
575
00:33:45,140 --> 00:33:45,440
Okay.
576
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:46,250
And yeah, you can see.
577
00:33:47,685 --> 00:33:51,165
They just modestly went above the
zero line right here, but many times
578
00:33:51,165 --> 00:33:55,304
you're going to find that using my way
of interpreting cot data, there'll be
579
00:33:55,304 --> 00:33:58,965
below the zero line, but it still gives
you a huge, massive influx of buying.
580
00:33:59,504 --> 00:33:59,895
Okay.
581
00:34:00,435 --> 00:34:01,635
And let's go over to.
582
00:34:03,395 --> 00:34:07,865
Bar chart.com uh, actual chart
without the line and about me
583
00:34:07,895 --> 00:34:09,725
giving you the 12 month perspective.
584
00:34:10,235 --> 00:34:10,594
Okay.
585
00:34:11,135 --> 00:34:15,574
And you can see very modest little by
above the zero line, but when you look at
586
00:34:15,574 --> 00:34:20,105
it in contrast to how I showed it, it's a
much more massive buying they did there.
587
00:34:20,105 --> 00:34:23,945
And look at the reaction in price that's
inner circle trader stuff right there.
588
00:34:24,125 --> 00:34:24,425
Okay.
589
00:34:24,455 --> 00:34:26,165
That's worth the price of admission alone.
590
00:34:27,975 --> 00:34:32,145
You can see how they remained
below the zero line down here.
591
00:34:32,534 --> 00:34:33,045
Okay.
592
00:34:33,315 --> 00:34:36,375
For the most part, but
every time it rallied.
593
00:34:36,824 --> 00:34:37,275
Okay.
594
00:34:38,264 --> 00:34:40,514
You know, why did they buy up here
when they're still blues airline?
595
00:34:40,665 --> 00:34:44,085
That was one of the things that plagued
me as a trader, like cot data stuff.
596
00:34:44,085 --> 00:34:44,534
Didn't work.
597
00:34:45,105 --> 00:34:47,895
I was doing it wrong because I was
doing exactly what the book said.
598
00:34:48,195 --> 00:34:49,125
So I changed it.
599
00:34:49,125 --> 00:34:51,435
And throughout what Larry
Williams said about, just look
600
00:34:51,435 --> 00:34:52,154
for this and look for that.
601
00:34:52,995 --> 00:34:56,175
I looked at, if they're hedging,
they should be doing things
602
00:34:56,595 --> 00:34:57,795
from a seasonal standpoint.
603
00:34:58,305 --> 00:35:00,255
And I found it in the grain market.
604
00:35:00,345 --> 00:35:04,275
And by doing it like that, seeing it
sickly happening, I was like, well, let
605
00:35:04,275 --> 00:35:05,835
me try to apply it to the currencies.
606
00:35:06,135 --> 00:35:07,515
What currencies are
cyclical, just like any.
607
00:35:08,279 --> 00:35:11,430
Because it's because of monetary
policy because of global commerce,
608
00:35:11,460 --> 00:35:12,330
all those types of things.
609
00:35:12,330 --> 00:35:15,240
I mean, think about it, you know,
there's holidays around the world that
610
00:35:15,240 --> 00:35:20,910
happened every single calendar year at
single, every single calendar, a date
611
00:35:20,910 --> 00:35:22,169
that they're supposed to happen on.
612
00:35:22,770 --> 00:35:25,169
Everybody has some kind of
a new year type celebration.
613
00:35:25,529 --> 00:35:27,029
You don't think there's
people spending money.
614
00:35:27,210 --> 00:35:27,779
Of course they are.
615
00:35:28,049 --> 00:35:32,100
So if we look at these cyclical
things, then why wouldn't there be
616
00:35:32,100 --> 00:35:33,529
cyclical things in the technicals with.
617
00:35:34,410 --> 00:35:35,640
So I think that's, what's happened.
618
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,770
They've skewed this data
to kind of screw it up.
619
00:35:38,190 --> 00:35:42,090
And because it's law CFTC requires
them to report this information,
620
00:35:42,090 --> 00:35:43,230
which I'm so thankful for.
621
00:35:43,740 --> 00:35:47,160
Um, it gives us a greater insight
about what's going on and yes, you
622
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,850
can see a net long position that's
really, really wimpy right above here.
623
00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:54,330
But if you look at the readings
of the low end, this is towards
624
00:35:54,330 --> 00:35:55,380
the high end of the range.
625
00:35:55,590 --> 00:35:58,020
So this is a massive buy and
that's why you get that big
626
00:35:58,050 --> 00:35:59,640
explosive price move right there.
627
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,640
Very, very indicative of
smart money accumulation.
628
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:02,940
So.
629
00:36:03,930 --> 00:36:10,170
Ideas about going through, um,
headlines and using major publications
630
00:36:10,170 --> 00:36:15,150
and such, and here's Bloomberg
and it was on May 15th, 2017, the
631
00:36:15,150 --> 00:36:17,880
Australian dollars outlook darkens.
632
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:18,630
Okay.
633
00:36:18,630 --> 00:36:20,940
Does that sound like it's a bullshit.
634
00:36:22,020 --> 00:36:26,490
Well, obviously it's indicating that
they think it's going down hard now in
635
00:36:26,490 --> 00:36:30,480
fairness, this is about midpoint of may,
but this is when I want to start seeing,
636
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:34,770
I want to see these storylines start
building these ideas about how, oh, it's
637
00:36:34,770 --> 00:36:37,230
doom and gloom or it's peaches and cream.
638
00:36:37,230 --> 00:36:40,410
It's wonderful ticker tape
parade, you know, exasperations,
639
00:36:40,740 --> 00:36:42,529
uh, you know, um, everything's.
640
00:36:43,620 --> 00:36:46,350
Or everything's terrible, you know,
when they start lines to start getting
641
00:36:46,350 --> 00:36:50,580
so heavily slanted on one side or
the other good or bad, it begins, it
642
00:36:50,580 --> 00:36:52,260
begins to build in sentiment ideas.
643
00:36:52,290 --> 00:36:52,560
Okay.
644
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,420
And sentiment is a really strong element
to technicals when you work with them,
645
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,570
uh, in a diametrically opposed condition.
646
00:37:00,570 --> 00:37:03,150
In other words, if market
sentiment and like this is bearish.
647
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:04,980
In other words, we would
interpret this as bear.
648
00:37:04,980 --> 00:37:06,150
So retail traders see this.
649
00:37:06,150 --> 00:37:07,920
They don't want to buy Australian dollar.
650
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,290
I'm scared because they
said it's going to go.
651
00:37:10,155 --> 00:37:12,465
Um, it's going to go lower,
you know, Bloomberg, you
652
00:37:12,465 --> 00:37:13,275
know, think about Bloomberg.
653
00:37:13,305 --> 00:37:14,325
They should know what
you're talking about.
654
00:37:14,355 --> 00:37:14,655
Right.
655
00:37:14,925 --> 00:37:15,225
Okay.
656
00:37:15,225 --> 00:37:17,235
Well, let's take another
look at another person here.
657
00:37:17,695 --> 00:37:18,705
Here's daily FX.
658
00:37:19,005 --> 00:37:19,485
Okay.
659
00:37:19,485 --> 00:37:24,135
And I'm gonna have to block out this, uh,
this guy's face and name because I don't
660
00:37:24,135 --> 00:37:29,865
want to be in trouble value that stuff,
but, uh, here's daily FX and Australian
661
00:37:29,865 --> 00:37:32,835
dollar may find itself X overextended.
662
00:37:33,285 --> 00:37:33,525
Okay.
663
00:37:33,525 --> 00:37:36,225
So in other words, uh, the
fundamental Australian dollar for.
664
00:37:37,785 --> 00:37:42,884
Is bearish and eventually, um,
Australian dollar goes on alert
665
00:37:43,005 --> 00:37:47,205
several hundred pips higher, um, as a
result of all this wonderful insight.
666
00:37:47,805 --> 00:37:54,345
And here's another one Aussie dollar
is directionless May 30th, 2017.
667
00:37:54,615 --> 00:37:55,815
It's directionless folks.
668
00:37:56,205 --> 00:37:56,535
Okay.
669
00:37:56,955 --> 00:38:02,985
It's the, you know, the end of may and our
seasonals are calling for it to rally and.
670
00:38:04,980 --> 00:38:06,150
That's the end of may right here.
671
00:38:07,410 --> 00:38:08,370
And then we get this.
672
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:14,970
So what we're doing is we're putting an
arm wrestling match against the banks and
673
00:38:15,240 --> 00:38:18,930
the neophyte traders or the, you know,
the stupid people, the, the dumb money.
674
00:38:18,990 --> 00:38:19,410
Okay.
675
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:23,670
Uh, the working class hero, you traders
guys, the guys that don't really
676
00:38:23,670 --> 00:38:25,350
know much the baby pips, if you will.
677
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:26,190
Okay.
678
00:38:26,220 --> 00:38:29,340
And if you have a.
679
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,180
Smart money against an entity like that.
680
00:38:33,240 --> 00:38:34,650
Obviously, you know, who's
going to win at the end.
681
00:38:34,950 --> 00:38:35,160
Okay.
682
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:39,480
You don't want to be in the uninformed
crowd and they are uninformed
683
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,900
because they follow all of the crumbs
that's being laid in front of them.
684
00:38:42,990 --> 00:38:44,070
Like good slaves.
685
00:38:44,250 --> 00:38:44,610
Okay.
686
00:38:44,730 --> 00:38:46,440
Like good sheep need.
687
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:46,950
They're going to eat.
688
00:38:46,950 --> 00:38:47,910
What's placed in front of them.
689
00:38:48,300 --> 00:38:49,380
All these news events.
690
00:38:49,380 --> 00:38:53,430
They're there to build in sentiment
all these media companies.
691
00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:53,850
Okay.
692
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,220
I wouldn't be surprised if they're not
in cahoots to make this whole thing.
693
00:38:57,870 --> 00:38:59,070
Unfold, just like that.
694
00:38:59,160 --> 00:38:59,400
Okay.
695
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:00,960
It's it's conditional programming.
696
00:39:01,410 --> 00:39:04,860
So over a period of time, they
started building these ideas.
697
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,620
Eventually you, you keep telling
somebody it's bad, it's bad.
698
00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:08,070
It's bad.
699
00:39:08,250 --> 00:39:09,360
They're going to think it's bad too.
700
00:39:09,420 --> 00:39:09,780
Okay.
701
00:39:09,780 --> 00:39:12,000
And then they gonna tell everybody
they know about the whole thing.
702
00:39:12,900 --> 00:39:15,570
So the sentiment, like an opinion
gets shared with everyone.
703
00:39:15,630 --> 00:39:17,910
And the more it spreads,
it's like a virus.
704
00:39:18,270 --> 00:39:19,380
It permeates everything.
705
00:39:19,380 --> 00:39:23,025
And since we're on a social
media and technology, Uh, error.
706
00:39:23,355 --> 00:39:25,155
It's so easy to share an opinion.
707
00:39:25,635 --> 00:39:30,855
So once an opinion is developed and
it's shared widespread, it builds in a
708
00:39:30,855 --> 00:39:37,455
huge diametrically opposed condition,
which is market sentiment by itself.
709
00:39:37,905 --> 00:39:42,795
If I see these types of things, these
ads and articles, and then I see it
710
00:39:42,795 --> 00:39:47,625
in a sentiment play like here, we have
Australian dollar and we're going to now
711
00:39:47,715 --> 00:39:50,595
apply a sentiment reading with oscillator.
712
00:39:51,855 --> 00:39:54,255
William's percent R and
we'll start with the 20.
713
00:39:56,415 --> 00:39:56,775
Okay.
714
00:39:57,195 --> 00:39:58,125
And here we are.
715
00:39:58,455 --> 00:39:58,875
Um,
716
00:40:01,905 --> 00:40:02,805
ideal, long entry.
717
00:40:02,805 --> 00:40:09,975
I have it set at 80 and ideal short entry
or sell basically if you're long is 20.
718
00:40:10,395 --> 00:40:14,085
So this is 20 and I want to look back and
it gave a good reading for this buyer.
719
00:40:15,674 --> 00:40:16,785
Uh, didn't give me a goodbye.
720
00:40:16,785 --> 00:40:18,495
There did give me a goodbye there.
721
00:40:18,884 --> 00:40:19,095
Okay.
722
00:40:19,095 --> 00:40:21,345
So twenties it's iffy.
723
00:40:22,964 --> 00:40:27,524
So now we're going to
change the indicator to 14,
724
00:40:30,734 --> 00:40:33,884
and this does look like form
fitting on now, but you'll see
725
00:40:33,884 --> 00:40:35,024
what I'm doing here in a second.
726
00:40:35,654 --> 00:40:36,044
Okay.
727
00:40:36,345 --> 00:40:37,904
So now we have a nice reading here.
728
00:40:38,475 --> 00:40:39,615
We have a nice reading here.
729
00:40:40,544 --> 00:40:41,834
We have a nice reading here.
730
00:40:41,865 --> 00:40:44,504
So when price came down again and
here, this should be a goodbye.
731
00:40:44,504 --> 00:40:48,645
And it was, so this is a calibrated,
the 14 period for sentiment.
732
00:40:48,645 --> 00:40:52,725
And we'd done that by justifying the old
lows back here, see how fast it took it.
733
00:40:52,935 --> 00:40:55,845
And I gave you three to
choose from 2014 and 10.
734
00:40:56,294 --> 00:40:59,895
Now, if I go to a 10 period,
it'll probably still do very well.
735
00:41:00,915 --> 00:41:05,325
Um, But you really want to
have a little bit more time.
736
00:41:05,325 --> 00:41:07,455
You don't want to always
use a small smallest one.
737
00:41:07,455 --> 00:41:09,525
Cause the smallest one will
always generally give you
738
00:41:09,525 --> 00:41:10,575
a good reading regardless.
739
00:41:10,635 --> 00:41:13,365
And that sometimes it's a little
too sugarcoated in my opinion,
740
00:41:13,695 --> 00:41:14,805
but you can see it does it here.
741
00:41:15,630 --> 00:41:18,030
Here here and here as well.
742
00:41:18,660 --> 00:41:22,080
Uh, but 14 periods in my opinion would
have been the ultimate cause it gives
743
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,240
you a little bit more time filter.
744
00:41:24,510 --> 00:41:24,780
Okay.
745
00:41:24,780 --> 00:41:28,830
It's smooth it out a little bit more
versus these jagged up and down,
746
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,430
uh, readings, you can get with a 10
period and on a weekly, uh, candle.
747
00:41:33,750 --> 00:41:37,110
So we have sentiment,
we'll put it back on 14.
748
00:41:37,260 --> 00:41:40,200
So that way it stays
with us our presentation.
749
00:41:41,220 --> 00:41:43,410
So we have our American
sentiment in terms of.
750
00:41:44,190 --> 00:41:47,250
Technicals down here saying
we're, you know, it's,
751
00:41:47,259 --> 00:41:48,540
everybody's thinks it's bearish.
752
00:41:48,630 --> 00:41:48,950
Okay.
753
00:41:48,990 --> 00:41:49,980
Bears, bears, bears.
754
00:41:50,549 --> 00:41:51,029
Okay.
755
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,060
Short cover and ideal long.
756
00:41:55,020 --> 00:41:55,290
Okay.
757
00:41:55,319 --> 00:41:56,310
Towards the 80 reading.
758
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:01,140
And also at the same time, when all the
headlines were saying, it's the end of
759
00:42:01,140 --> 00:42:04,140
the world for Australian dollar, it's
going to go down or it's directionless.
760
00:42:04,140 --> 00:42:05,400
And nobody was saying,
it's going to go up.
761
00:42:06,029 --> 00:42:07,020
So sentiment was what.
762
00:42:08,475 --> 00:42:13,154
Technically it's bullish because it's
extreme reading down here and we built
763
00:42:13,154 --> 00:42:17,384
all the ideas with the premium and
discount rates where we were in a discount
764
00:42:17,384 --> 00:42:22,335
array, bull, shorter block Fairview,
you got closed and seasonal tenancy.
765
00:42:22,725 --> 00:42:24,435
Boom explosion.
766
00:42:24,645 --> 00:42:25,125
Okay.
767
00:42:25,515 --> 00:42:31,935
So we had, we covered the
relative strength aspect.
768
00:42:32,415 --> 00:42:34,694
We looked at the CRT used both in that.
769
00:42:35,384 --> 00:42:40,035
Use of cot graph, zero line above
is, but what's below is bearish.
770
00:42:40,035 --> 00:42:45,105
And then I used my ICT, uh, hedging
program concept, um, where you use the
771
00:42:45,105 --> 00:42:48,645
12 month range, go back 12 months, find
the highest and the lowest reading on
772
00:42:48,645 --> 00:42:51,675
the commercials, holding only, okay.
773
00:42:51,675 --> 00:42:52,305
Just the commercials.
774
00:42:52,305 --> 00:42:55,095
You're getting that reading and it's
put that line in half, do it on paint,
775
00:42:55,695 --> 00:42:57,225
and then you can, uh, get everything.
776
00:42:58,035 --> 00:43:00,315
Closer depiction of what
they're buying and selling is.
777
00:43:00,915 --> 00:43:04,185
And we figured out by sentiment,
looking at the headlines that the
778
00:43:04,185 --> 00:43:08,325
Australian dollar they were saying it was
directly or bearish, nothing was long.
779
00:43:08,325 --> 00:43:09,015
So sorry.
780
00:43:09,075 --> 00:43:11,845
Market sentiment was bearish
and diametrically opposed to
781
00:43:11,865 --> 00:43:13,125
commercials which were buying.
782
00:43:13,425 --> 00:43:18,015
And we had a seasonal influence expecting
June lows to occur in a rally in June.
783
00:43:18,615 --> 00:43:21,405
And we have a technically also
what the Williams' first hand arm.
784
00:43:21,765 --> 00:43:22,095
Okay.
785
00:43:22,095 --> 00:43:25,335
So we can see a visual depiction
of sentiment being bullish
786
00:43:25,575 --> 00:43:26,775
because it's extreme overseas.
787
00:43:27,870 --> 00:43:30,720
This means this is what the
public thinks it's going down.
788
00:43:30,900 --> 00:43:35,160
This thinks that, uh, they think the
public is, um, extremely bullish here.
789
00:43:36,210 --> 00:43:37,380
Public is bearish.
790
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:38,700
Public is bullish.
791
00:43:38,730 --> 00:43:39,750
Public is bearish.
792
00:43:39,780 --> 00:43:40,590
Public is bullish.
793
00:43:40,890 --> 00:43:41,970
Public is bearish.
794
00:43:42,570 --> 00:43:46,200
And if we diametrically oppose
ourselves to that view, when all of
795
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,740
our smart money concepts that I've
been teaching you when news overlap
796
00:43:49,860 --> 00:43:51,030
and then you have seasonal too.
797
00:43:51,090 --> 00:43:53,490
Ugh, it's just like
taking candy from a baby.
798
00:43:53,820 --> 00:43:55,260
It's so easy now.
799
00:43:56,535 --> 00:43:58,395
We go into market profiling as well.
800
00:43:58,395 --> 00:44:03,435
So we had market come off this
low rally away then retrace.
801
00:44:03,585 --> 00:44:07,755
So we're in a consolidation, but
we now, at this point, we know the
802
00:44:07,755 --> 00:44:09,165
consolidation is giving us clues.
803
00:44:09,165 --> 00:44:10,634
It's going to break out to the upside.
804
00:44:12,015 --> 00:44:15,404
If that's true, then we should
be looking for the profiling of a
805
00:44:15,404 --> 00:44:18,045
retracement, even though we're in
a long-term consolidation on the.
806
00:44:18,915 --> 00:44:22,544
On the weekly, it changes to now
we're in a retracement and it's
807
00:44:22,634 --> 00:44:25,245
expecting a expansion swing.
808
00:44:25,274 --> 00:44:28,694
So this is an impulse sling
retracement expansion swing.
809
00:44:29,085 --> 00:44:29,415
Okay.
810
00:44:29,625 --> 00:44:32,595
Expansive swing tends to go a little
bit more than the impulse swing does.
811
00:44:32,924 --> 00:44:37,214
And that's why we have our, Fibonacci's
usually overlapped with this to
812
00:44:37,214 --> 00:44:38,565
get our extensions for targets.
813
00:44:40,170 --> 00:44:44,040
So from profile and standpoint,
we see a retracement to expansion
814
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:45,830
and intermarket analysis.
815
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:50,340
We are, I saw that the dollar index
was supporting this, um, moved by
816
00:44:50,340 --> 00:44:59,310
weakness and when the part of the
dollar and from a PDA PDA Ray matrix,
817
00:44:59,340 --> 00:45:02,250
uh, standpoint, we have all of our.
818
00:45:06,745 --> 00:45:09,175
Discount raise the Bush order box.
819
00:45:09,295 --> 00:45:09,655
Okay.
820
00:45:10,915 --> 00:45:11,905
Supporting price.
821
00:45:16,515 --> 00:45:21,435
You see buying coming in here and
up-close candles are breaking here.
822
00:45:22,275 --> 00:45:22,785
Okay.
823
00:45:23,235 --> 00:45:28,935
And prices gone through and taken out
the monthly rejection block and the old.
824
00:45:29,970 --> 00:45:30,899
That's what these levels are.
825
00:45:31,319 --> 00:45:31,770
Okay.
826
00:45:32,430 --> 00:45:37,109
And that's an example of taking
all the information from a monthly
827
00:45:37,109 --> 00:45:41,040
chart, transposing it to a weekly
and then a weekly down into a daily.
828
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,710
So we take all this information.
829
00:45:44,129 --> 00:45:44,490
Okay.
830
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:51,060
All this information will be transposed
and placed onto a daily chart for our
831
00:45:52,620 --> 00:45:58,350
short-term analysis, a top-down approach
in our third teaching next week.
832
00:45:59,655 --> 00:46:02,745
So hopefully you found this insightful
again, we'll build on these concepts
833
00:46:02,775 --> 00:46:06,405
and give you much more detail, but
for now this is all that it takes
834
00:46:06,855 --> 00:46:08,235
all the information you've learned.
835
00:46:08,595 --> 00:46:09,795
That's all we do.
836
00:46:09,915 --> 00:46:13,845
We take what you've been shown here
from a process from beginning to
837
00:46:13,845 --> 00:46:16,455
end, and you do things modularly.
838
00:46:16,485 --> 00:46:18,285
You don't try to apply everything.
839
00:46:18,495 --> 00:46:21,705
You don't try to push all the
concepts into one timeframe and
840
00:46:21,705 --> 00:46:22,965
try to make it all speak to you.
841
00:46:23,265 --> 00:46:24,225
Cause you'll never get anywhere.
842
00:46:24,225 --> 00:46:24,765
You'll be confused.
843
00:46:25,620 --> 00:46:27,510
None of this should be confusing to you.
844
00:46:27,870 --> 00:46:29,010
It's really simple.
845
00:46:29,010 --> 00:46:30,060
It's streamlined.
846
00:46:30,390 --> 00:46:32,430
There's not a whole lot
of everything applied.
847
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:38,250
Each specific timeframe has its respective
characteristics and you have to apply
848
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:39,990
certain tools to those timeframes.
849
00:46:40,290 --> 00:46:43,380
Notice that we didn't do a whole
lot of, uh, you know, detail with
850
00:46:43,410 --> 00:46:45,540
analysis with time, date type things.
851
00:46:45,630 --> 00:46:47,160
It's not required on these times.
852
00:46:48,225 --> 00:46:49,125
Monthly and weekly.
853
00:46:49,395 --> 00:46:52,815
Now, when we go into daily, our next
teachings next week, you'll get much
854
00:46:52,815 --> 00:46:56,835
more refined information about time of
day and a lot more indicators and tools.
855
00:46:57,045 --> 00:46:59,265
And it's probably what you're waiting
for, but you don't need that stuff.
856
00:46:59,295 --> 00:47:01,995
This stuff here, whatever I
showed you here so far, this
857
00:47:01,995 --> 00:47:04,155
is what everybody else lacks.
858
00:47:04,575 --> 00:47:09,135
So if they don't have this in a trading
and they'll do well, is that probably
859
00:47:09,135 --> 00:47:10,965
something that they should start doing?
860
00:47:11,025 --> 00:47:12,945
Sure, but they're not in the group.
861
00:47:12,945 --> 00:47:16,205
So the hand going to be
without this information.
862
00:47:17,384 --> 00:47:23,955
If you use it and you try not to, uh, and
you increase with taking other disciplines
863
00:47:23,955 --> 00:47:28,634
and applying to it, keep it just as I've
been showing you here, the previous lesson
864
00:47:28,634 --> 00:47:32,355
in this one, all we're doing is taking
the information and building and fleshing
865
00:47:32,355 --> 00:47:34,095
out what the institution should do.
866
00:47:34,695 --> 00:47:35,505
Notice what we did.
867
00:47:35,865 --> 00:47:40,904
We applied seasonal influences
that the technicals should support
868
00:47:40,995 --> 00:47:44,505
because of the technicals in
our repeating seasonal trends.
869
00:47:45,690 --> 00:47:48,900
Or seeing higher prices and
lower prices Aussie dollar.
870
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,730
We looked for a seasonal low in June.
871
00:47:51,540 --> 00:47:56,550
It came, it came by way of institutional
sponsorship, institutional order flow.
872
00:47:57,180 --> 00:48:00,750
The comer, the commercials were net
long based on both camps, whether
873
00:48:00,750 --> 00:48:05,130
it uses my concept of the hedging
program or using the standard
874
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:08,610
cot graph and sentiment was bear.
875
00:48:09,465 --> 00:48:11,805
To directionless the words
were the erection list or
876
00:48:11,805 --> 00:48:13,005
going to hell in a hand basket.
877
00:48:13,005 --> 00:48:13,875
That's basically what it was.
878
00:48:14,175 --> 00:48:17,625
Nobody was saying in the
reports to buy Aussie dollar.
879
00:48:18,495 --> 00:48:20,865
Nobody was saying that they
were saying, it's going to go
880
00:48:20,865 --> 00:48:23,145
down and it didn't go down.
881
00:48:23,325 --> 00:48:26,925
It rammed right on up into
a level we anticipated.
882
00:48:27,195 --> 00:48:28,125
We talked about this.
883
00:48:28,515 --> 00:48:30,105
In fact, I was looking for it in March.
884
00:48:30,105 --> 00:48:30,585
I was wrong.
885
00:48:30,585 --> 00:48:33,005
We had a little bit of retracement
back here, but it came down to
886
00:48:33,135 --> 00:48:36,205
a buying opportunity and look at
the nice explosive price move.
887
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:38,100
We didn't miss it here.
888
00:48:38,100 --> 00:48:41,130
It was all, we were all over it, but
the long and short of it is these are
889
00:48:41,130 --> 00:48:44,820
the components we use from monthly
to weekly and now weekly to daily.
890
00:48:45,270 --> 00:48:46,470
And until next time I wish you good luck.
75570
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