Original subtitles

Okay folks.

Welcome back.

This is second and fourth teachings in a final delivery month of art mentorship.

This teaching is ICT intermediate term top-down analysis.

Weekly to daily.

Okay.

Again, like on the previous monthly to weekly presentation, what I'm doing is

I'm giving you my personal approach.

This is how I do it.

And again, it's this, this is a model, but this is how I go through

the process of taking the information I've gleaned from the monthly

chart and transposing it to the.

Now weekly information I give you here will be transposed to the daily.

Now most of this is going to be basically verbatim what we saw on the monthly chart,

which is the reason why I tell you we went through 11 and a half months of content.

It seems like an, uh, an amazing Olympic feat to do, but you have

all this information, but you haven't had any idea of what to do

with it specifically in an order.

And I told you from the beginning, once you get to this month, you'll see just

how easy it is to use the information.

And it doesn't take a lot of time.

Uh, Element of time that is required is you getting used to doing it?

So that way you understand what you're looking for and it makes

your analysis quicker now does mean shortcuts are the way to profits.

It doesn't mean you half rear end approaches.

If you will.

Like my grandfather, he's telling me don't don't half ass.

Anything.

Uh, if you.

Do a half ass attempt at your analysis?

Well, don't be surprised if you get lackluster results, but once you

understand what it is specifically you're doing and how you're breaking the

market down, it does not take long folks.

It does not take long.

I'm actually going to spend more time talking and describing what it is that

you have to do then if you just did it.

So the focus on this presentation much like on the monthly to weekly is we're

going to determine the impact of the weekly perspective on any asset or.

We're going to identify the directional bias, where the higher timeframe,

weekly chart, we're going to classify the PD erased accurately to assist

in key levels and complete an institutional analysis on a weekly basis.

Okay.

Folks.

The first thing I start with when I'm doing a new week is I

start with relative strength.

Now, the reason why I start with relative strength is I may not have

a clear picture from the monthly and to avoid any needless frustration.

If the monthly charts don't really speak well to me, then I'll just go through

the process of, uh, doing in a relative strength analysis, uh, on the assets

and the specific currencies or stocks or futures markets down, looking to treat.

After I do my relative strength analysis, I go into the commitment of traders.

And what I'll do is I'll go through all the currencies and commodities

and I'll look for extremes in the readings and the commercials.

And I'll give you the specifics when we get to the breakdown on what is

on looking for, but, uh, it goes from relative strengths analysis.

And then once I have what I believe is.

The leaders or my watch list, if you will, from my relative

strength analysis, hopefully the trades that I find on a monthly.

Like we did with the Australian dollar and the previous teaching

with the monthly to weekly.

Um, hopefully that Australian dollar makes the cut for the

relative strengths analysis.

And we'll take a look at that as our continuing example, but then

we go into commitment as traders.

And I like to look for what the commercials are doing.

I'm going to get a read on what those hearts those hedges are

doing because they're well-informed and they usually make the tops

and bottoms in the marketplace.

So if we can get their readings in extreme, Uh, basis, then we can

try to trade in the middle where the majority of the move has made.

After that, I do a market sentiment analysis and I go through a

couple of different things that arrive at market sentiment.

And I'll share that with you in this teaching.

Once they arrive at a market sentiment and opinion.

Then I started breaking the market down in a technical fashion

like we did with the monthly.

So there's a couple things missing here that we saw in the monthly that

is not in the weekly, uh, portion.

Um, we had.

Three different things that started off the monthly new, we have three

different things before the weekly here.

So I will get down to a weekly chart.

We're starting to look at more of opinions of others versus just technicals.

And we weigh them against the technical strength and weakness by

way of the relative strength analysis.

Once we arrive at our watch list and we determined which markets are field.

Commercial hedging.

And then we also blend in market sentiment ideas with everyone else

in the retail world is thinking, ah, because ideally you want to be

diametrically opposed to that in an alignment with what smart money is doing.

So market profile is the next thing I look at and I start breaking

down what the weekly looks like in terms of market profile.

Is it in consolidation?

Is it in a trending environment?

There's types of things.

And just like we did with the monthly, the same thing applies here on the weekend.

Okay.

After I do market profiling, I look at intermarket analysis on a weekly basis.

So I start comparing what the weekly charts look like in

other, uh, correlated markets.

And I compare likes and price action with positive and negatively correlated

assets and markets with the market.

I'm looking to treat.

So in other words, in an example, I could be looking at, you know, um,

the dollar versus, uh, you know, to Keely on a weekly basis and seeing

if there's, uh, you know, intermarket analysis, supporting an idea it may

have for the dollar or for the Kiwi.

After that I start looking at market structure.

And at this point I want to start blending in incorporating institutional order flow.

Now institutional order flow.

I want to be looking for down close candle, supporting price and

a closed candles being broken in.

Or a bullish market structure.

And I want to see up close candles, resisting price and down closed.

Candle is breaking as market structure is indicating lower prices.

So everything we mentioned in previous about the monthly applies, but now

we're gonna start looking heavily for institutional sponsorship,

uh, in, by studying the order.

The next is I break down the PDA rate matrix on a weekly

and I'll do the same thing.

On the monthly charts on the weekly as well.

So everything that I would break down in terms of the range that's defined by now,

the weekly chart, any PD array that didn't exist in the monthly may now materialize

in the weekly chart, because you're gonna get much more definition because

you're going into a lower timeframe.

And after that, by having the weekly PD rate matrix defined.

Both premium and discount rays, then I can start working towards calibrating

my key price levels for support and resistance or buy and sell areas.

And then as a result, I come to a weekly bias and it's defined in such a way

where now I can take that information and transpose that to the daily chart.

So in greater detail, what I begin with when I start my intermediate term

analysis, I start with relative strength.

So if the monthly analysis is not as helpful as I hope, and, or it's not

clear to me, you know, I begin my weekly analysis with relative strength

analysis across all asset classes.

That means for commodities, currencies, and stocks, I determine

what markets lead in strength by failing to make lower lows and lead

in weakness by failing to make higher.

I look for stocks in the top 30 industry groups for strong stocks ranked by

investors, business daily or IBD.

And I'm going to actually do a separate individual teaching as a topical study.

So that way you'll see how I go through and sort with IBDs, um, resources.

So you can see me do it and do the same thing.

When you look for stocks as well.

I look for longs and commodities that bleed their respective futures group

with higher lows relative to the others.

And in the words, in the grains, I'm going to find a market that doesn't

make a lower low, and all the grains should be bullish in dollars week.

I look for longs and currencies that fail to make lower lows

relative to the other currencies.

When the dollar index is weak.

Um, I look for leadership and laggards.

So I want to know what the hell.

The strongest is, and the weakest, when I'm doing my relative strength

analysis concepts, next thing I go into commitment of traders.

And I want to know what the commercial hedgers are dealing because the

commercials they hedge in such a large degree of buying and selling,

they then sell end up creating the highs and the lows are tops and

the bottoms of the marketplace.

Now, if you know what they're most likely doing in terms of.

Or low then, you know, you got a long period of meet in the middle

type move, or a range expansion that's directionally bias.

So by having this expectation about what the commercials have already

done in the marketplace, They're going to be diametrically opposed

to what the large funds are doing.

And since we really want to be using the commercials to give us the high

and the low end of the range, based on their extremes, we trade with

the direction of the large funds in between the middle, because you'll

see they're diametrically opposed.

So at the highs and the lows are the tops in the bottom of the

commercials are always right in between those two price points.

The large funds are accurate.

They're right.

That's why large funds continuously make a lot of money, but at the extremes,

they always get their ass handed to them.

So.

We want to know when the hedgers are calling for a potential

high or a potential low.

And we work within the middle.

I looked for the commercials to be at a 12 month or six

month extreme and net holdings.

I also would like to sort markets that are at two-year and four-year

extremes now using my proprietary CRT hedging program concept.

I look for signs that commercials are buying or selling.

Now you're going to go back and look at those teachings.

It relates to that.

I'm not going to teach it again here, but I like to look for when the commercials

are buying, when it doesn't appear.

It's obvious.

Like when we look at the zero line on the net trader position

chart that everyone looks at.

If it's above the zero line, I think they're buying well.

They are, but they could also be selling inside that, that range also.

But you have to look at the 12 month extreme, high and low rating

and dividing that in half, you can actually get a better read

on what their hedging program is.

And also like to sort commodities that have extremely large net holding.

Compared to the futures groups are they're part of, for instance,

uh, I look at the grains again.

Um, if there's a huge astronomical, uh, amount of net long positions in

the soybean market versus then that of all the other grain markets, generally,

that's going to be an indicative of them, uh, seeing a big move as well.

Alright market sentiment reading.

Um, I use headlines from financial publications like investors business,

daily Barron's wall street journal bloom.

And I like the fade, the big story.

Now, the news isn't always going to be marked to market

the very day it comes out.

Sometimes it can.

But generally when I, like, I like to see storylines start building in a consensus

or a sentiment idea about, you know, doom and gloom or everything's great.

This is the best bull market ever seen.

And it's on fire or there's I like to use.

Um, headlines or stories to have real big descriptive adjectives,

you know, something that gets things emotionally charged, okay.

The more emotionally charged or descriptive they are.

And the more that they occur, generally, that builds in a sentiment idea.

And I haunt forums, uh, you know, for retail thinking and to further

build my sentiment opinion.

So I go to all the well-known, uh, forums online and.

I want to do like a trade in the cable.

I'll go and look at what all the retail minded, uh,

individuals are going to do there.

It's uncanny, uncanny when the technicals are in line, like I teach it.

And in the sentiment idea, they're saying that a hundred percent opposite

of what we expect is same price.

It's unbelievable how it's this like diametrically opposed.

And as a technical market sentiment reading, I use a Williams percent.

And yes, I said the word indicator, uh, I use a percent are on a weekly

chart in periods of 2014 period and 10.

Now they're not all three applied.

Okay.

There's the three settings that I like to use.

And what I do is I look for which one is the most accurately, um, depicting

or overlaps with the previous important highs and lows that's done in the past.

Nothing's going to be perfect.

Okay.

But I like to have a technical sentiment indicator in concert

with what I'm seeing in the.

For retail thinking and what I'm seeing in the storylines, in the newspapers or

the articles or whatever I see on CNBC.

So when all three of these things come together, that builds my sentiment.

All right.

And what profile is marketing much like we did with the monthly chart on

this breeze right through it, because it's very, it's basically the verbatim

is the market under consolidation.

If it's yes and expansive, they're likely to show evidence prior to a breakout.

Um, we can start seeing things that lead well to, um, a directional bias that

will move outside that consolidation.

Cause we want to know what the next moves are going to be.

And if it's not in consolidation, that trend might be reaching an extreme.

And if it is, it may be a retracement, not only a reversal, but I always like to

see retracement first as my first choice.

And is the market under study, um, trending.

And if it is trending, you, I'm always going to be citing or looking for

continuation trades to avoid the top and pick a top and bottom picking.

And if it's not trending, I look for science to support a directional breakout.

And while I think consolidation and I use it to market analysis.

And is the market under a retracement.

And these are the, this is the third question I asked myself.

And if it's under retracement, then I look for science for continuation

of the trade, post retracement.

And think about what I showed you in the monthly teaching.

As the monthly chart was retracing for the Australian dollar, it retraced down into

a bullet shorter block on a monthly basis.

And that would be an ideal scenario for us to go long.

But if it's not retracing, then I have to determine if

it's consolidation or trending.

And I used the above ideas to get more.

And that's what I do for market profiling on the weekly chart, just like I did

on the monthly and everything that we saw on the monthly for intermarket

analysis, it's done here as well.

And if I have a bullish market structure, uh, determined in my market

of interest, you know, if I look for, into market analysis to support the idea

of positively correlated markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated

markets, Example bullet a bullish pound.

I'd like to see a weak us dollar technically.

And if it's a bearish market structure determined in my market of interest, I

look for intermarket analysis, support the idea in positively correlated

markets and opposed to it in negatively correlated markets example would be bare

us dollar and strong Eurodollar tech.

And after that I go into market structure.

And again, I want to start incorporating institutional order flow here, looking

for, um, premium arrays, breaking in bullish markets in discount

rate, supporting price and reverses.

When it's bearish, I want to see a premium erase, uh, resisting price and discount

rates breaking down and not providing any kind of support, uh, that goes in concert

with normal market structure as outlined.

So I'm going to be defining the current market structure on a weekly basis.

Current market structure, I looked at classify every high and low relative

to SMT ideas, you know, comparing it to a dollar or correlated pair SMT.

In other words, a Euro to cable, um, or Euro to.

So you have USD ex SMT and correlated pair SMT on the weekly.

I started using it there and like on the monthly, I compared the

relationship with the highs to recent highs, the determinants of

long intermediate or short-term high is in control price presently.

And like on the monthly, I compare the relationship to the lows,

to recent lows to determine if.

Is a longterm intermediate term or short term low.

And if it's in control price, presently trade selected in the direction

of the current market structure and monthly directional bias are

going to be favored in my analysis

in, uh, obviously like we did it, the monthly I'm going to be

locating institutional focus points.

Uh, once I arrive at a portion of price action, I wish to analyze,

I break down the selected price range into premium and discount.

Uh, not every price range we'll have every possible premium and or discount array.

I'm going to just note the ones that are obvious in the weekly range and

both premium and discount rates are going to be identified and I'll look

to build potential trade ideas based on PDRs and referring to all previous

analysis points thus mentioned in this weekly to daily presence.

I'm going to be noting the key price levels relative to the

premium and discount raised on the weekly and wants determined the

portions of the market structure.

I want to use for my trade ideas.

Like on the monthly, I round each PD array to the nearest 10 level or

five level and premium raise above the market price are calibrated and

rounded down to the nearest adjusted.

And discounted rates below the market price are calibrated and

rounded up to the nearest adjusted number, either five or 10 level.

And we end with a weekly bias.

So after I refer to relative strength for leaders and laggards, I go into commitment

traders, and I look for the buying and selling based on their standard zero line.

Are they above or below the zero line?

And then I break it down into my hedging.

Concept where we can look at the last 12 months and look at the highest high

and the lowest low of just their net holdings and disregard the zero line.

Everybody else uses for net traders, position, uh, grass, and

then split that in half and above.

It will be buying and billowing will be selling.

And I, again, I've done a teaching about that and you guys can

not refer back to that as well.

If you have any more questions about after we get through this

month's content, obviously we have plenty of time to go over that.

Uh, that I determined the market sentiment based on there's

three principle approaches.

And then I confirm my analysis with market correlation.

So either a USD, X, SMT, or.

Quarterly a pair SMT and, or like for instance, like dollar to

commodities in a dollar going down commodities, going higher, uh, those

types of things, I'm looking for that to occur on the weekly chart.

And I select a portion of market structure to frame a trade within.

And then I defined a PD rays to arrive at key levels within

that range on the weekly chart.

And by that time I will have arrived at a directional based

analysis and a weekly timeframe.

That gets transposed over to the daily.

So what we're going to do now is when we returned back to our Aussie dollar

example and break that down, all the things we've done here, we're gonna apply

it to that weekly to daily principle.

Okay.

We're back on our Aussie dollars as a monthly.

And all I did was changed some colors to keep it in better.

Clarity.

We have a rejection block over here and our old height landed here as premium res.

So it's our range defined by our low and our high.

And it's, what's the discount rate.

It was the nearest below price actually, as we started June or shorter block, that

means threshold would be in here as well.

But I'm just going to try to keep it clean.

And then we have the rejection block, lowest close.

And then we have the low itself that would be identified and liquidity pool below it.

So on the upside, we had one, two premium rate, and then we had another, that we'll

add here, which is the old high here.

And then there'll be another one.

Should this one break?

The next PD array on a premium premium basis would be.

The last up-close candle, which would be a bullish or block on a monthly standpoint.

And again, we're getting a little rich with the, uh, objectives in

terms of premium now, but I just want to show you how you would

just keep walking out with this.

And then we have somewhat of a fair value gap in here as well.

So we can identify that.

So we had that to this high here.

So there's all of our premium arrays on the Australian monthly.

Okay.

So now once we have all this now, um, once this range has been broken

to, from this low to this high, so now this range has no longer.

Valid.

Okay.

So now we had price trained outside for external liquidity, external

range liquidity, and now the next range high would be up here.

So if this high was to be broken, then we would start looking for

fair value gap to define the range and then the bullish shorter block.

And you would just keep expanding that up.

Okay.

And should this bullet short bucket way we would be looking for.

This, all this downside delivery on price to be rebalanced, but that's so far away

and not germane to the discussion at the moment, but that's how we would do it.

So now we're going to drop down into, and again, this line here just

delineates the, uh, the beginning of may and, uh, on the monthly chart.

So now we have to adjust it to.

June, because we're going to drop down to a weekly and we want to

see all the relative price action.

So now we have everything that was on the monthly transposed to the weekly chart.

So now we have all of our premium rates, discount rates are identified

here and again, our initial range was defined by this high and this

low, once this high was formed.

This range is no longer valid, but we do refer back to it as a discount

array because it's below price.

So we would come back down to this potentially as a support level, but

we would look to justify why price may still reach up into the 80 threes.

Okay.

On, uh, or 80 to nineties from a monthly premium array basis.

But I want you to take a look at how.

The price levels from the monthly are going to be used in the weekly.

Once we go through relative strength, we were looking at the Lowe's in here

relative to the Australian dollar.

And we're going to take a look at the.

Dollar index at the same time.

And we can see there was really no, uh, disparity amongst the two markets

Aussie was calling for higher, whereas the dollar was looking weak as well.

So you would see lower prices.

So from a relative strength standpoint, no disparity in here.

So everything is confirming it.

So we have weakness in the dollar is expected and strength in.

Okay.

So we didn't see any crack and correlation there.

So everything looks healthy for this move to transpire what the seasonal tendency

for June to be higher, we get the higher move off of the bullshitter block.

Okay.

From a monthly standpoint, which is what this level is here.

This is the monthly bullish or block, but notice also that price.

Inside this range prior to the move out right here, this low to high.

And let's look at this whole entire range, a little bit more detail.

We have this candle here where once it took off about this

short-term high on this candle.

So above 9 73, 57 only buy-side deliveries offered until it

came back down and rebalanced.

The high on this candle comes in at 73 56.

The low on this candle comes in at 73, 29.

So it more than comes down and rebalances that.

So we have a rebalance point.

We can take this order block now and refine it down to this level here,

get a little bit more detail in terms of where the low may form in this

retracement that we saw on a monthly.

So we have a more refined, uh, PDRs for a discount, but this level here.

If we look at these two candles here, which makes a weekly bullet,

shorter block, all these things help us align ourselves with a much

more refined in calibrated level.

We have equilibrium in here.

So price, we don't want to see it go down to that level or through it.

I mean, I shouldn't say shouldn't, it can go down to it, but we just

don't want to see it violate.

And that's that level there.

And we'll get rid of this now.

So now we have a little bit more detail in terms of our discount.

Raise price trades down.

Find some support at the bullshitter block and fair value gap on weekly and price.

Now trades through this up-close candle.

I'm sorry.

This down close candle is violated up-close candle.

So this becomes a bullish order block so we can anticipate

price returning back to the.

So we're incorporating

institutional order flow in here.

Beautiful delivery of price there with this low body.

This candle is opening and runs away and reaches for the buy-side

liquidity, resting of both equal highs and above the range, which is what

these levels are here for the monthly.

And also we're starting to see.

Come in with the down close candles in here.

Okay.

The bodies, the open on this candle, 75 57.

Draw that out in time to closes 75 71.

The open on this candle is 75 68.

This down close came up, becomes a bullish or block.

When this candle trades through it, we find retreated back down into it here.

Price then runs away.

Creates the run or for a lower resistance liquidity run resting

of both these equal highs.

Okay.

So we can see the element of institutional order flow seen in the weekly chart

now, supporting price, moving higher.

Okay.

We're looking at the commitment of chairs report, and this is the Australian dollar.

And I've already done the, uh, hedging program concept.

That's unique to me.

Uh, you can see the actual, real institutional buying

and selling when you do this.

And what I did was I highlighted the beginning of June.

You would have done this.

Okay.

And it's hard to see with this, but it's the red line.

Okay.

Here's a red line all up here and it stairsteps down, goes to here.

It goes back up, goes down, goes back up.

Damn stays down here and then goes back up for a period of

time, then it drops down again.

Okay.

Um, what I did was at June, I went back 12 months to the previous year's

June, which is this line right here.

Okay.

And that was the highest reading since that time to June of 2017.

And I looked for the lowest low.

Okay.

And I just used the.

Reading down here, went back to the may just to make sure I got

a good range to work within.

And that split that range in half to high and the low.

And this is the midway point.

So it becomes basically this zero line it's normally on net

trade, your position chart.

I, uh, you used the 12 months range and 12 month range.

If you split it in half the highest and the lowest and

divide it in half, you get this.

Ebb and flow type thing.

Okay.

And when I started doing this for commodities and looking at

futures contracts and such, um, especially with currencies, it

became like a huge light bulb.

You can't, they can't hide from you anymore.

See, I think they started messing with the data, the screw up

the, uh, the presentation of the cot net position charts.

And by having that, like this.

It gives us a, um, actually I think it just took away some of that green.

Didn't get it.

Anyway, this should go a little bit higher than that.

This should all be green in here and I'll show you what a, how I did it in a second.

But the main point is in June, right here, you can see that they were

above the modified ICT hedging program concept, where you can see when

they're hedging and buying and selling.

So just real quick, look, you can see during the buy time.

They bought the low here.

And during this red time here, they sold down, went long in here.

We had that rally up and we had this selling here.

When he sold into the rally, then he bought it back in here

at this low, they sold it again.

And here was this, that decline.

Then they bought it up again here, which is this buy right here.

And there's the runoff.

So we had in our weekly to daily, uh, procedure, we'd look for, uh, the seasonal

influence for bullishness in June.

To come into Australian dollar.

We did our relative strength studies.

We did see a SMT divergence on Aussie $2 Aussie was a failing to make a lower load

when, um, dollar index made a higher high.

And that was in place that was working.

So the commitment of traders report and graph as we'll show the

I'll show you the original one in contrast to what you're seeing.

But cot data and the ICT, uh, hedging program.

Again, you can't find this anywhere else.

Folks, you learned it here.

So looking at this information, it gives us when the commercials really

buying and when they're really selling.

Okay.

And it's not always indicative of what you would normally

see in a standard cot graph.

So we can see the real institutional hedging right in here.

What they're buying re.

Okay.

There's also, it happens right when they closing the gap.

So that only the buy-side delivery here to this candles.

Hi right down to it right there.

Boom hits it.

Okay.

And in rallies away all overlapping with them being net long notice

that they aren't really net long until they get a blood zero.

If you look at the way everyone else looks at the modestly bullish, there doesn't

have to be, uh, uh, viewed like that.

We can see this is actually a big, massive increase of buying.

Whereas if you can see when.

Come down and close that gap.

They were much longer using my way of using cot data than that.

Uh, the standard, uh, CIT graph, which we'll look at in a moment now.

So let's close this, uh, here.

Uh, you see what it looks like in paint?

And all I did was did a right click on bar chart, a chart.

Once I applied a weekly contract and put the cot data on a large presentation.

Okay.

And I'll show you what that looks like when we go over to a bar chart.com.

And what we do is I'm going to take all this off and you can see

without it all in there, it's not as a parent without the information.

It's just looks like a bunch of squiggly lines.

Okay.

And yeah, you can see.

They just modestly went above the zero line right here, but many times

you're going to find that using my way of interpreting cot data, there'll be

below the zero line, but it still gives you a huge, massive influx of buying.

Okay.

And let's go over to.

Bar chart.com uh, actual chart without the line and about me

giving you the 12 month perspective.

Okay.

And you can see very modest little by above the zero line, but when you look at

it in contrast to how I showed it, it's a much more massive buying they did there.

And look at the reaction in price that's inner circle trader stuff right there.

Okay.

That's worth the price of admission alone.

You can see how they remained below the zero line down here.

Okay.

For the most part, but every time it rallied.

Okay.

You know, why did they buy up here when they're still blues airline?

That was one of the things that plagued me as a trader, like cot data stuff.

Didn't work.

I was doing it wrong because I was doing exactly what the book said.

So I changed it.

And throughout what Larry Williams said about, just look

for this and look for that.

I looked at, if they're hedging, they should be doing things

from a seasonal standpoint.

And I found it in the grain market.

And by doing it like that, seeing it sickly happening, I was like, well, let

me try to apply it to the currencies.

What currencies are cyclical, just like any.

Because it's because of monetary policy because of global commerce,

all those types of things.

I mean, think about it, you know, there's holidays around the world that

happened every single calendar year at single, every single calendar, a date

that they're supposed to happen on.

Everybody has some kind of a new year type celebration.

You don't think there's people spending money.

Of course they are.

So if we look at these cyclical things, then why wouldn't there be

cyclical things in the technicals with.

So I think that's, what's happened.

They've skewed this data to kind of screw it up.

And because it's law CFTC requires them to report this information,

which I'm so thankful for.

Um, it gives us a greater insight about what's going on and yes, you

can see a net long position that's really, really wimpy right above here.

But if you look at the readings of the low end, this is towards

the high end of the range.

So this is a massive buy and that's why you get that big

explosive price move right there.

Very, very indicative of smart money accumulation.

So.

Ideas about going through, um, headlines and using major publications

and such, and here's Bloomberg and it was on May 15th, 2017, the

Australian dollars outlook darkens.

Okay.

Does that sound like it's a bullshit.

Well, obviously it's indicating that they think it's going down hard now in

fairness, this is about midpoint of may, but this is when I want to start seeing,

I want to see these storylines start building these ideas about how, oh, it's

doom and gloom or it's peaches and cream.

It's wonderful ticker tape parade, you know, exasperations,

uh, you know, um, everything's.

Or everything's terrible, you know, when they start lines to start getting

so heavily slanted on one side or the other good or bad, it begins, it

begins to build in sentiment ideas.

Okay.

And sentiment is a really strong element to technicals when you work with them,

uh, in a diametrically opposed condition.

In other words, if market sentiment and like this is bearish.

In other words, we would interpret this as bear.

So retail traders see this.

They don't want to buy Australian dollar.

I'm scared because they said it's going to go.

Um, it's going to go lower, you know, Bloomberg, you

know, think about Bloomberg.

They should know what you're talking about.

Right.

Okay.

Well, let's take another look at another person here.

Here's daily FX.

Okay.

And I'm gonna have to block out this, uh, this guy's face and name because I don't

want to be in trouble value that stuff, but, uh, here's daily FX and Australian

dollar may find itself X overextended.

Okay.

So in other words, uh, the fundamental Australian dollar for.

Is bearish and eventually, um, Australian dollar goes on alert

several hundred pips higher, um, as a result of all this wonderful insight.

And here's another one Aussie dollar is directionless May 30th, 2017.

It's directionless folks.

Okay.

It's the, you know, the end of may and our seasonals are calling for it to rally and.

That's the end of may right here.

And then we get this.

So what we're doing is we're putting an arm wrestling match against the banks and

the neophyte traders or the, you know, the stupid people, the, the dumb money.

Okay.

Uh, the working class hero, you traders guys, the guys that don't really

know much the baby pips, if you will.

Okay.

And if you have a.

Smart money against an entity like that.

Obviously, you know, who's going to win at the end.

Okay.

You don't want to be in the uninformed crowd and they are uninformed

because they follow all of the crumbs that's being laid in front of them.

Like good slaves.

Okay.

Like good sheep need.

They're going to eat.

What's placed in front of them.

All these news events.

They're there to build in sentiment all these media companies.

Okay.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're not in cahoots to make this whole thing.

Unfold, just like that.

Okay.

It's it's conditional programming.

So over a period of time, they started building these ideas.

Eventually you, you keep telling somebody it's bad, it's bad.

It's bad.

They're going to think it's bad too.

Okay.

And then they gonna tell everybody they know about the whole thing.

So the sentiment, like an opinion gets shared with everyone.

And the more it spreads, it's like a virus.

It permeates everything.

And since we're on a social media and technology, Uh, error.

It's so easy to share an opinion.

So once an opinion is developed and it's shared widespread, it builds in a

huge diametrically opposed condition, which is market sentiment by itself.

If I see these types of things, these ads and articles, and then I see it

in a sentiment play like here, we have Australian dollar and we're going to now

apply a sentiment reading with oscillator.

William's percent R and we'll start with the 20.

Okay.

And here we are.

Um,

ideal, long entry.

I have it set at 80 and ideal short entry or sell basically if you're long is 20.

So this is 20 and I want to look back and it gave a good reading for this buyer.

Uh, didn't give me a goodbye.

There did give me a goodbye there.

Okay.

So twenties it's iffy.

So now we're going to change the indicator to 14,

and this does look like form fitting on now, but you'll see

what I'm doing here in a second.

Okay.

So now we have a nice reading here.

We have a nice reading here.

We have a nice reading here.

So when price came down again and here, this should be a goodbye.

And it was, so this is a calibrated, the 14 period for sentiment.

And we'd done that by justifying the old lows back here, see how fast it took it.

And I gave you three to choose from 2014 and 10.

Now, if I go to a 10 period, it'll probably still do very well.

Um, But you really want to have a little bit more time.

You don't want to always use a small smallest one.

Cause the smallest one will always generally give you

a good reading regardless.

And that sometimes it's a little too sugarcoated in my opinion,

but you can see it does it here.

Here here and here as well.

Uh, but 14 periods in my opinion would have been the ultimate cause it gives

you a little bit more time filter.

Okay.

It's smooth it out a little bit more versus these jagged up and down,

uh, readings, you can get with a 10 period and on a weekly, uh, candle.

So we have sentiment, we'll put it back on 14.

So that way it stays with us our presentation.

So we have our American sentiment in terms of.

Technicals down here saying we're, you know, it's,

everybody's thinks it's bearish.

Okay.

Bears, bears, bears.

Okay.

Short cover and ideal long.

Okay.

Towards the 80 reading.

And also at the same time, when all the headlines were saying, it's the end of

the world for Australian dollar, it's going to go down or it's directionless.

And nobody was saying, it's going to go up.

So sentiment was what.

Technically it's bullish because it's extreme reading down here and we built

all the ideas with the premium and discount rates where we were in a discount

array, bull, shorter block Fairview, you got closed and seasonal tenancy.

Boom explosion.

Okay.

So we had, we covered the relative strength aspect.

We looked at the CRT used both in that.

Use of cot graph, zero line above is, but what's below is bearish.

And then I used my ICT, uh, hedging program concept, um, where you use the

12 month range, go back 12 months, find the highest and the lowest reading on

the commercials, holding only, okay.

Just the commercials.

You're getting that reading and it's put that line in half, do it on paint,

and then you can, uh, get everything.

Closer depiction of what they're buying and selling is.

And we figured out by sentiment, looking at the headlines that the

Australian dollar they were saying it was directly or bearish, nothing was long.

So sorry.

Market sentiment was bearish and diametrically opposed to

commercials which were buying.

And we had a seasonal influence expecting June lows to occur in a rally in June.

And we have a technically also what the Williams' first hand arm.

Okay.

So we can see a visual depiction of sentiment being bullish

because it's extreme overseas.

This means this is what the public thinks it's going down.

This thinks that, uh, they think the public is, um, extremely bullish here.

Public is bearish.

Public is bullish.

Public is bearish.

Public is bullish.

Public is bearish.

And if we diametrically oppose ourselves to that view, when all of

our smart money concepts that I've been teaching you when news overlap

and then you have seasonal too.

Ugh, it's just like taking candy from a baby.

It's so easy now.

We go into market profiling as well.

So we had market come off this low rally away then retrace.

So we're in a consolidation, but we now, at this point, we know the

consolidation is giving us clues.

It's going to break out to the upside.

If that's true, then we should be looking for the profiling of a

retracement, even though we're in a long-term consolidation on the.

On the weekly, it changes to now we're in a retracement and it's

expecting a expansion swing.

So this is an impulse sling retracement expansion swing.

Okay.

Expansive swing tends to go a little bit more than the impulse swing does.

And that's why we have our, Fibonacci's usually overlapped with this to

get our extensions for targets.

So from profile and standpoint, we see a retracement to expansion

and intermarket analysis.

We are, I saw that the dollar index was supporting this, um, moved by

weakness and when the part of the dollar and from a PDA PDA Ray matrix,

uh, standpoint, we have all of our.

Discount raise the Bush order box.

Okay.

Supporting price.

You see buying coming in here and up-close candles are breaking here.

Okay.

And prices gone through and taken out the monthly rejection block and the old.

That's what these levels are.

Okay.

And that's an example of taking all the information from a monthly

chart, transposing it to a weekly and then a weekly down into a daily.

So we take all this information.

Okay.

All this information will be transposed and placed onto a daily chart for our

short-term analysis, a top-down approach in our third teaching next week.

So hopefully you found this insightful again, we'll build on these concepts

and give you much more detail, but for now this is all that it takes

all the information you've learned.

That's all we do.

We take what you've been shown here from a process from beginning to

end, and you do things modularly.

You don't try to apply everything.

You don't try to push all the concepts into one timeframe and

try to make it all speak to you.

Cause you'll never get anywhere.

You'll be confused.

None of this should be confusing to you.

It's really simple.

It's streamlined.

There's not a whole lot of everything applied.

Each specific timeframe has its respective characteristics and you have to apply

certain tools to those timeframes.

Notice that we didn't do a whole lot of, uh, you know, detail with

analysis with time, date type things.

It's not required on these times.

Monthly and weekly.

Now, when we go into daily, our next teachings next week, you'll get much

more refined information about time of day and a lot more indicators and tools.

And it's probably what you're waiting for, but you don't need that stuff.

This stuff here, whatever I showed you here so far, this

is what everybody else lacks.

So if they don't have this in a trading and they'll do well, is that probably

something that they should start doing?

Sure, but they're not in the group.

So the hand going to be without this information.

If you use it and you try not to, uh, and you increase with taking other disciplines

and applying to it, keep it just as I've been showing you here, the previous lesson

in this one, all we're doing is taking the information and building and fleshing

out what the institution should do.

Notice what we did.

We applied seasonal influences that the technicals should support

because of the technicals in our repeating seasonal trends.

Or seeing higher prices and lower prices Aussie dollar.

We looked for a seasonal low in June.

It came, it came by way of institutional sponsorship, institutional order flow.

The comer, the commercials were net long based on both camps, whether

it uses my concept of the hedging program or using the standard

cot graph and sentiment was bear.

To directionless the words were the erection list or

going to hell in a hand basket.

That's basically what it was.

Nobody was saying in the reports to buy Aussie dollar.

Nobody was saying that they were saying, it's going to go

down and it didn't go down.

It rammed right on up into a level we anticipated.

We talked about this.

In fact, I was looking for it in March.

I was wrong.

We had a little bit of retracement back here, but it came down to

a buying opportunity and look at the nice explosive price move.

We didn't miss it here.

It was all, we were all over it, but the long and short of it is these are

the components we use from monthly to weekly and now weekly to daily.

And until next time I wish you good luck.