All language subtitles for Lesson 4 - Trending Days EN

Again, our topic is about commodities.

Every thing mentioned in these
teachings should be viewed in

light of a paper trade only.

Okay, folks.

Welcome back June, 2017 content
ICT, mentorship, ICT bond

trading, lesson four, trending.

All right folks, trending days.

This is what we're all looking for.

As far as traders, we want volatility.

We want movement.

We want to see expansion
activity, animation, and price,

all those things that promote.

Easier trading well, before we
can find them, uh, let's look

at some of the characteristics,
obviously, overnight price action.

Again, can be trending or range bound.

That's never a precursor New York
session news we're expecting about until

the injection, the economic calendar
we'll show high to medium impact us

reports due to release at 8:30 AM.

New York.

And formation characteristics are
generally trending days or large

range expansion days are seen
typically after small range days

or a series of small range days.

They're directionally driven by
the daily PD array matrix and

their liquidity seeking movement,
PDA Ray and order flow based.

So what am I saying here?

We're looking for that volatility
filter where the range has

get small on the daily chart.

And if that daily chart is showing a
previous day being small range compared

to the last few days, or price has
contracted over a series of trading

days where it's now gotten smaller,
smaller, smaller, and state and small

trading ranges, we're due for a range of.

And if you couple that with the fact,
for instance, if the small ranges

have just recently treated down into
a discount array and the economic

calendars calling for high to medium
impact news reports at eight 30,

we're expecting volatility injection.

So we have the stage set for an
expansion from discount to premium.

The reverse is seen when the branches
are small and the daily chart and price

has recently traded up to a premium.

And again, volatility injections are
expected at the eight 30 news embargo

lifts high to medium impact news imports.

When you see those things, we
can expect a expansion day on the

downside from a premium array.

All right, we're going to take a look at
the treasury bond market, and I want you

to focus in on these lows right here.

Okay.

Notice.

As price went lower here that lower,
low in the treasury bond was a trigger.

And we're going to look at
the catalyst for that move.

That calls that big run-up
in the treasury bonds.

But notice on the same trading
day in the New York session, we

had the Euro dollar vault higher.

We didn't stay in small ranges.

We exploded on the upside.

So there was a lot of
animation, a lot of moves.

And a lot of energy and the precursor and
the release of that energy was directly

related to the treasury bond market.

This happened to be on June 14th,
2017, and this is the economic calendar

for the New York session at 8:30 AM.

And it also was FLMC.

Now I'm showing you this example
here and another one as well,

because the rules are that we're
generally going to be waiting for FMS.

No worries.

We're not trying to be active.

We don't want to trade the
FMC afternoon session, but we

can trade the morning session.

If we have a volatility, squeeze, small
ranges, we know that we traded from

a discount array or a premium array.

So we know there's going
to be an expansion.

We know that the PDA rate matrix
new institutional order flow is

suggesting a directional bias.

We have injections of volatility
based on the economic calendar.

FMC is always typically
a 2:00 PM New York time.

So we can trade the morning session, but
we can not be in the afternoon trading

because of the volatility that may be seen
by way of the economic news release around

the FMC announcement or rate decision.

But let me take your attention back.

To that small little area here in
the treasury bond market, the lower,

low going into the opening or in
this case, it's the eight to 8:30 AM.

That's the local New York time for me, uh,
eight o'clock to eight 30 in the morning.

Uh, the chart that's shown
here is in central time.

So it's going to be an hour earlier.

So what you see here in
terms of seven o'clock.

To seven 30 is going to be eight
o'clock to eight 30 in my time.

So, or New York time.

So when we see that lower, low in
the bond market, the stages set

we're expecting higher prices.

I outlined it before the fact
in the live session on the 14th

that we were expecting a buy stop
run, or expanse from the upside.

We were at a discount.

On the two hour chart and we
have a lot of dollar based news

events occurring in FMC later on.

So we had to keep our focus on
primarily the am session, but look

at the lows in the treasury bond here
in relationship to the 10 year note.

Notice that that did not go lower.

That's our trigger.

That's where we see the
professional accumulation.

The buyers are coming in.

Strong they're going in buying up
the dead instruments because of

their insight is greater than ours.

And if they're stepping in,
remember back to sniper series, the

displacement that's caused by smart.

They don't call small little
moves when they step in.

It's noticeable.

As you can see here in price,
you see the divergence between

the 10 year and a 30 year.

I don't need to pull up the five-year
cause we did it actually during

the live session on the 14th, but
long and short of it is we have.

The energy release and price where
no longer is price being shackled,

where it's being held in consolidation
or, or contraction price is being

permitted to remove dynamically
because of the bond markets condition.

And notice also, again,
look at the Euro dollar.

At the same time in New York
session, we had an explosion in

price action and volatility was
allowed to be seen in price.

Action.

Let's take it again.

Day.

And then we're gonna look at June
2nd, 2017 is the economic calendar

here for the New York session.

So we had some heavy hitting news coming
out around dollar based and you can see

the Euro dollar here while the treasury
bond was permitted to trade higher

and trend higher, big, close up day.

That was also seen to allow
the Euro dollar to have an

explosive price action as well.

So we had, again, price and small
consolidation, then permitted to expand.

Again, I can't stress this enough
when you're looking for trades, you

have to have the sponsorship behind it
by way of the interest rate markets.

And this is the reason why it's
important to be following the bond

market, looking at the five year,
the 10 year and the third year, and

comparing them doing your analysis.

The higher timeframe charts, but
focusing primarily on the daily,

the four hour and two hour.

And that'll give you a really good feel
for what price action is most likely

going to do in the treasury bonds.

So by looking at them and comparing
the likes, when you're bullish

at the lows, going into that time
window of eight o'clock to eight

30 in the morning, New York time.

When you see that divergence there
and the stage is set for an expansion

and we have the utility injections
by way of the economic calendar.

We will know beforehand that price
will be allowed to expand dynamically

across other asset classes.

And since we're primarily for
X traders, we're using this

insight to look for opportunities.

How big brains is large moves
can occur in the FX market.

Again, here.

On June 2nd, 2017 Euro dollar create a
nice long opportunity in New York session.

Lots of volatility.

Okay.

We're looking at the same June 2nd.

So the criteria is still the
same as far as it relates to.

Economic calendar in treasury bond market.

But the Aussie dollar also was
permitted also to have a trending day

and exploded on the upside as well.

So there was a lot of movement seen
in the Aussie dollar, on an intraday

basis, and it was all seen by way of
a precursor in a treasury bond market.

Now on the 2nd of June, I'm
going to save the idea of going

in and looking at the lows.

But if you go into bar chart.com, you
can literally pull up the individual day.

By the calendar day and load up Z N U one
seven and the, the U one seven to get the

tenure, the five-year and the 30 year on
this particular day in June 2nd, 2017.

And you can see the divergence between the
three dead instruments that give us the.

For sponsorship in the bond market with,
so in the interest rate market kicks off

and it's allowed to move energetically.

That's going to promote the idea
for all the asset classes to be.

As a short-term trader as a day trader,
this is one of those things that helps

you have a higher odds, not perfect,
not panacea, not be all end all.

It just means that we have
the proper stage to allow.

Big movement, big movement as a
day, trader is essential because

you're going to get chopped up.

If you try to trade, like we've been
seeing day by day, just going in

there trying to force an opportunity
without any real relationship to

the bond market, because we have
to teach it first when that is.

Not incorporated.

And we're trying to trade
every single trading day.

You can say that it's not
going to be optimal results.

Now you might get lucky.

You might get something in your favor once
in a while, but generally losses across

the entire month, every single trading
day, China trade, they will whittle

away at the big juicy winning days.

So you want to really keep your
opportunities few and far between and

highly, highly selected cherry picking
situations where the perfect criteria.

Is there before you take the trade,
as you can see here, there's a common

recipe that's occurring throughout the
trading opportunities as being shown here.

Big impactful news in New York,
the bond market has a condition

where it's small ranges.

We're expecting expansion.

It's trading at a discount.

Price is permitted to expand in the bond
market to interest rates are active.

Therefore the currency is going to chase.

That's why we see these dynamic
moves so far in a year and

only Aussie dollar on the June.

Second.

Another example here for June 2nd
to the economic counter here is the

same churchy bomb chart is the same.

Now we can see also that the dollar
yen also had an explosive move,

but this time just in reverse
terms, the dollar index was bear.

Foreign currencies is bullish.

So that's going to be seen by
way of a dollar yen declined.

It wasn't on a modest decline.

It was not a slow, lethargic decline.

It was dynamic.

It was quick.

It was energetic because
of the bond market.

Unlocking the volatility.

You can't get explosive
price action without the

participation and the interest.

Interest rates.

I said this on baby piss back in 2010,
the key is knowing the interest rates.

If you follow that and you follow the
bond market, it unlocks everything.

It's like tumblers and a lock.

So if you're trading without this
insight, you're really trading below.

You're going to attribute your wins as
skillset based when it was really luck

based because you chances are you're going
to see that the interest rate market has

actually helped you behind the scenes.

And you may not have known it up until.

Okay, we're gonna look
at it another day here.

This is April 18th, 2017.

You can see the economic calendar going
into the New York session, eight 30.

So we had a high-impact building permits
dollar based treasury bond market also,

uh, was at a discount array, allowed
the trade from a discount expansions.

Ranges on the daily
large range is expected.

Big impactful news do out in New York
price expanded up, created a rather

large day for bond market British pound.

As a result also in the New York
session had an amazing day in the

British pound, large update, huge
upside potential, all precursor

directly related to the bond market.

Another opportunity.

Looking at the same day of April 18th,
2017, the economic calendar is the same.

The treasury bond market
chart is the same.

Again, you'd be looking at the lows
going into that seven o'clock on the

chart, a bar chart, because that's
going to be eight o'clock New York time.

And you want to be comparing the
lows there because you're going

to see the trigger occur between
a five-year or 10-year in a 30.

When that occurs, that buying signal
gives you confirmation that your

expansion move is about to take place.

That way you can see the expansive
move take place and the other foreign

currencies, incidentally, since we're
seeing the bond market rally examples

here, what that's showing is the
interest rates are actually decreasing.

So if the interest rates are
decreasing, that's going to more times

than not pressure us dollar a day.

In foreign currencies, we'll chase
higher yield in relationship to that.

So that way you see higher foreign
currencies when bond markets rally,

and the dollar index generally
looks for lower prices or recesses

to lower prices as seen here.

In this example, in the previous example
with the dollar yen, lower prices in

the New York session, clearly in order.

And we saw that true to form.

Another example on April 18th, 2017.

Again, the economic
calendar stays the same.

The treasury bond market chart
stays the same, but now we're

looking at the Euro dollar again,
Euro dollar with the highest.

Treasury bond move higher
interest rates are be declining.

So if the U S interest rates are
declining as a result, that's going to

put pressure on the dollar on the downside
and allow foreign currencies to rally.

So it's giving you a directional bias.

It's giving you magnitude volatility.

It's given you the energetic
side of the marketplace.

That's going to reach for as an X, as a
result, and you can see here, your dollar

had no problem rallying at the New York.

Okay.

Our last example here for another day,
we're looking at March 15th, 2017.

Our economic calendar is seen here
in loaded with high impact news

dollar based treasury bond market,
small consolidation on a daily basis.

In the 15 minute chart here, we
can say that it was absolute new

problem for it to rally at the
seven 30 time period on the chart.

But which means it's eight
30 in the New York time.

The up move in the treasury bond market
is going to send interest rates lower,

which is going to pressure dollar lower
allowing foreign currencies to rally.

You can see that the.

Fell to the British pound and in
your session as cable maiden, really

easy attempt to rally in the New York
session and eventually trading higher.

Now I'm highlighting this
because it's FLMC again and FMC.

We saw that huge move up later on in the
afternoon, around the two o'clock hour.

Typically when FMC news
drivers hit the marketplace.

Okay.

Our last example here and looking at
the same date, March 15th, 2017, the

economic calendar stays the same treasury
bond chart just stays the same again.

It's rallying up from the
New York 8:30 AM time period.

When the news hits the market,
it's an a discount, but Ray moving

away and institutional order flow
bullish on the daily chart to 15

minute timeframe shows the expansion.

You're a dollar as a result is allowed
to trade higher at the New York session

because higher bond market, which has
lower interest rate, it's going to

send dollar lower as a result, allowing
your dollar to rally against the

dollar rate at the New York session.

Again, later on in the day, we
see a nice big move taking place

as a result of FMC, knowing.

These characteristics known these
generic principles about price

action, about how the interest rates
unlock the moves in the marketplace.

If you look at how the stock market
is allowed to trade, also, when we

talk about stocks, we're going to
come back to this topic as well.

When we talk about index,
uh, trading in S and P.

Um, next week when we do next week's
teachings on index futures trading, we're

going to refer to this phenomenon as well.

So I pulled out a few that I've observed
over the last few months that stood out.

I want you to go through the bond
market, looking at the five-year

to ten-year and the 30 year
when the market was moving from.

You can find areas on the daily
chart of the, of the bond market.

It did that and go into those days
individually on bar chart.com and pull

up the individual days and look at
the relationship of the trigger that

we look forward to diverged between
the 10 year the five-year and a 30.

And.

What we saw as a result in
the foreign exchange market.

So I only gave you a handful of
sampling of not just what recently

happened in the last couple of weeks,
but going back all the way to March.

And there's a few more examples where you
can find a few more moves, but I gave you

ones here that you can really focus on.

And obviously there's going
to be times when the treasury

bond market actually sold off.

I saved those examples for you
to go in and look as a contrast.

When the bond market was looking to trade
aggressively lower, or Spansion move

lower from a premium array on the daily
chart, you're going to see the opposite

where the bond market is declining, which
means interest rates are increasing,

which is going to cause the dollar to
rally in foreign currencies decline.

So that's your homework going forward
and put some of your observations on

the forum, make them available to you.

And I will look forward to you getting
back to me with a positive feedback,

because I promise you if you go through
the market's looking for scenarios,

when the bond market is poised to move
in a strong, directional based idea.

And when the range has been small,
that's a loaded deal for obvious

movement in the price until next lesson.

I wish you good luck.