All language subtitles for Lesson 3 - Seasonal Tendencies EN

Okay folks.

Welcome back before we get into the
topic, it's very important that we

remind ourselves that this is a commodity
market discussion, and it's important

that you read the disclaimers here.

I am not a CTA.

I'm not commodity trade advisor.

So it's very important that
you understand everything we'd

say here is all specifically
talking about paper trading only.

Welcome back to lesson three.

This is June, 2017 ice tea,
mentorship, commodity trading,

lesson number three, seasonal
tendencies, my personal favorites.

Okay.

We're looking at the first in our list
and we're going to be talking about

the agricultural markets first, and
then we'll go into the financials.

But before I begin, I
want to number one stress.

Panaceas don't exist.

Be all end dolls don't exist in
trading and certainly seasonal

tendencies are not one a while.

My personal belief is that
there's validity behind them.

Because of human error because of the
seasonal tendency, not taking effect of

the time of a trader sitting down and
trying to implement them, just know that

you can lose money if you try to place
all your faith on seasonal tendencies.

But my personal interpretation of
seasonal tendencies are it's like

a roadmap or like a treasure map.

If you will.

It kind of like gives me the normal
expectation of what should normally.

Be seen in price action that time of year.

Now, anything can happen, obviously
with agriculturals, there could be

a drought, there could be a bumper
crop, meaning there's a lot of

supply and a drought would create a
short supply and demand would go up.

And obviously the prices
go through the roof.

But when we have these seasonal
tendencies, again, it's important that

we remind ourselves like I did when I
mentioned them earlier in the mentorship.

They're not panaceas, they are not
going to be absolute, but they're good

roadmaps as to what to expect for each
individual in this case commodity.

So the first in our list here, the
seasonal fantasy for the soybean market

on the left-hand side of every slide.

I'm going to present the seasonal
fantasy on the left and then a weekly

chart over the last five years.

So that way you can look at price and
form for your own opinion, whether it's,

whether there's any validity to having
these seasonal tendencies in our toolbox

at all, I believe by your study and your
interest by seeing whether these things

come to fruition or not in the old data.

I think you'll come to the conclusion.

Like I did that.

There is something going on that in my
opinion, provides validity and not entire

trust, but certainly one to look for
reasons to expect the market to perform as

we would see in a seasonal tendency, if we
don't see the market trading in line with,

with the seasonal tendencies implying
that actually gives us insight as well.

So if at a time when it should
be bullish, for instance, with

the soybean markets, usually the.

1st of February going into the June
time period, usually the bull's

time period for soybean market, but
if the market's actually trading

lower, what does that telling you?

It means seasonally and, uh, influences
are not under influence at all.

They have no input impact at all
on price, and there's probably

something underlying that's heavily
slanted towards a big supply.

And otherwise the normal function
for higher prices and markup in the

price for soybeans isn't being seen.

So if we're seeing bearishness during
the first half or so of the year, that

means there's probably a whole lot of
soybeans that's available and there's

not going to be so much supply that
the demand won't push prices higher.

But if there is a condition where it we're
expecting bullishness, like we see here

in the first half of the year general.

If that occurs and we are in a
primary bull market or other reasons

that would support bullishness
are seen in trace action.

Then we could look for the seasonal
tendency to support the sustained mood

going into the middle of the year.

Interestingly enough, uh, June time
period going into July creates a

seasonal tendency to create a high.

And usually it trades down into the
September, October time period where

it creates another seasonal low.

If we look at the top of every one of
these seasonal tendencies, you're going

to see a small little yellow box here.

And the first in this series from left
to right, you see Mer at stands for the

March delivery contract for soybeans.

The next delivery contract, when
March contract expires, you can

no longer trade that contract.

You have to trade the next month,
which would be may when may expires.

You had to trade July when July expires.

You have to trade August when August
expire, you had to trade September.

When September expires, you can
trade November when November

expires next month would be January.

Obviously you want to always try to
trade the first or nearby month because

that's where all the open interest is.

Generally.

There's a few commodities that
don't always operate like that.

Like gold usually has a tendency to skip a
month in the latter portions of the year.

But easiest way to do is.

And go into the bar chart.com.

When you pull up the contracts that
you would be doing your analysis

on, just look at open interest and
volume, whatever has the highest one.

That's usually the contract you're
gonna be looking at or looking to

trade on the seasonal tendencies.

There's two lines, there's
a solid black line, which

delineates 40 years of price data.

So that way we can look at the seasonal
tendency pattern for the last 40 years.

And Steve Moore who creates
this wonderful, recent.

Also plotted a 15 year
seasonal tendency pattern.

And the reason for doing that is when we
have a short term view of a tendency or

data, and you compare it with a longer
term sample size, like 40 years, contrast

it with 15 years of the same information.

If there is a.

Strong seasonal tendency there.

That means we should be able to
see it both in the short term,

15 year data and the 40 year.

And you can see by contrast the
heavy, solid black line and the

dashed red line, pretty much move
lock step in the same direction.

So when we look at the seasonal
tendency was we're looking for

that criteria were both of them.

To create a higher, low
and sustain mus it's.

In this case for soybeans, we can
see the 1st of February, there's

a seasonal tendency for soybeans
to rally going up into the mid

portion of the year, June or July.

And in June, July, we create
a high and trades down into

September, October creating another
season, a low on the right-hand

side of every one of the slides.

I'm going to provide you in this teaching.

I am not doing any markups at all.

Because I do not want to give the
impression or imply that these

seasonal tendencies are absolute.

I'm not trying to over prove them.

I'm only suggesting that you look at
the data and you tell for yourself

whether there's any validity to it.

Okay.

And don't just use the last five
years data like I'm showing you here,

go back as far as you possibly can
and see if these things do in fact.

Materialize.

And I think you're going to be
rather surprised when you see

how consistent many of them are.

So we know that there is a seasonal
Tennessee for price, for soybeans to

rally around the beginning of the year.

So we can look for the January.

Delineation at the bottom of the
weekly chart on the right hand side.

And we should see price
rally up into July.

And if you look at January, 2013,
follow that up with your eye, you'll

see there's a low and it trades all
the way up into July of that year.

Very phenomenal, very, very
consistent with the seasonal tendency.

Then in July, we expect price to
trade down into a fall September,

October time period, and it
creates this seasonal low and.

And consolidate a little bit and then
rallies again in January of 2014 into

the June month, creating a high for
2014 trading all the way down into what?

Yep.

You guessed it.

The September, October low for 2014.

The 2016 time period, you can see
that the seasonal influence for price

to rally for soybeans comes in and
effect again, making the high end the

month of June of 2016, then trading
lower making the low in October.

So I'm going to counsel you.

To wait out for yourself, whether or
not there's a seasonal tendency here.

So if we are a commodity trader in the
making and we want to pay per trade

and see if there's any validity to
these things, we know that there are

strong tendencies to trade soybeans.

Three ways.

Look for longs from February, going
into June, July, look for shorts from

June, July down into September, October.

Look for long September,
October going into.

The following rotation
in the summer months.

Now that may break up into two stages or
two legs and price action, but that's how

you use the seasonal tendency or at least
how I interpret it and how it's served me.

Well over the last 20 years,

the next seasonal tendency is of trade.

Now this one's a little funky,
but it's when it's there.

It's solid.

Um, there is a seasonal tendency
before wheat to the climb the first

half of the year, and then make a low
second half of June and in August.

So we have a little bit of a time period
between four to six weeks where the local.

And if we look at the July time period on
the weekly chart, you can see that there's

generally a rally, like in 2012, we can
see the rally in wheat and in the 2013

year, we saw price decline a little bit.

That year didn't have the seat on
the influence for bullishness there.

Same thing with 2014.

And in 2015, we saw the.

Market rally going into the July time
period and in the 2016 time period,

the bullishness was also not seen as.

And this year we haven't
gotten to July yet.

We can see clearly that the wheat market
has been in a strong bearish market.

And now by using that seasonal
tendency, let's look and see if

there's any influences for sell-offs
from the beginning of the year

in January, going down into June.

So we can find the first January and
our weekly chart is in January, 2013.

Follow that line straight up
and you can see there was a tie.

Around the $8, a bushel and price
traded lower as a result down

into yes, the July time period.

And in 2014, we actually seen the
price only decline for about a

month in January, 2014, then it ran.

Then the following year in January, 2015,
we seen price declined a little bit and

traded down into what looks like, um, may.

And it may create a little
low and started to rally.

And in 2016, we saw the market
decline and well, they have a

retracement above the $5 mark.

I did trade down into a low.

Uh, the July August time period, and in
January, 2017, we did not see a decline.

We actually saw that rally.

So there's times when the seasonal
tendency will not be of any significance

at all, won't have any impact on price.

But if we ever see the wheat market go
into a bull market, the best times to

be a buyer that I've seen in historical
price action, and you can see it through.

So.

Here's the look for a low in the July,
August time period, and then in November.

So November and July, August, they're
the best times of the buyer of wheat.

When markets are in bear markets, like
we've seen in the weak market here.

If we is in a bearish market, best times
to look for cells is beginning of the

year, going down into the summer months,

Chicago board of trade.

Okay.

So the best time to be looking for
shorts, obviously you can see it jump

off as a seasonal tendency chart here.

It was in may, may and June create
seasonal tendencies for corn

historically over the last 40 years.

And it usually drops down into
September, October time period of the

year where it makes a seasonal low.

So we can check, check this by looking
at the April time when our weekly

chart I find in April and see if it
declines down into September, October.

So the first one we can see in 2013, It
creates a little bit of a retracement

that falls out of bed in July,
down into the October time period.

Then in April of 2014, it creates
that very high of that particular

year trades down into October,
September, October creates the low.

Then in the following 2015,
here, we can see that April has.

Uh, it does rally a little bit early in
2015, creates a high and sells off again,

but can't get below the three 50 and
actually three 50 stays the support level

for a number of months going into 2016.

So we don't see any decline in
April actually see it rally.

And that's actually strong because
what we're seeing is is the seasonal

seasonal tenancy for Klondex
would be declining in December.

It can't, it's finding support off of a
historical three hours and 50 cents, a

bushel price mark, and eight rallies up
in challenges in old high and seen in

July of 2015, then price creates a low in
the September time period when we expect

a low and that's been seen in 2016 and
corn has been steadily moving sideways.

That's slightly higher since that.

And we didn't see any decline.

Notice that in April, may
of this year, we've actually

seen Colin go higher to that.

I think we have a little bit of a sleeper
market, meaning that we might see some

bullishness for the core market, because
it's not abiding by its seasonal tendency.

So if it's not doing that,
what is it telling us?

Underlying relative strength.

Okay.

The next one is feeder
cattle, eat hamburger.

This is where it comes from.

Okay.

What I'm going to feed your cattle is.

All right.

So if we look at the Cecil tendency
for this commodity, it usually makes it

seasonal low in the April may time period.

It can occur as early as February.

If you look at the dashed red line
in last 15 years, there has been an

impulse to create the seasonal world
as early as February, but generally,

um, the best moves as you can see in
a dash line really starts to move.

At the end of April going into may,
and it creates some seasonal high

in around August and September,
and it goes and consolidations.

So how do we use this information?

It's ideally a good time to be a
buyer in the spring and sell it

going into the fall so we can find
April and look for basically October.

So between April and October,
there should be a rally.

So if we look at the.

Delineation for 2013, we
can see the market rallied.

In fact, from that spring time period,
all the way up into the October high

of 2013 nails, the, um, short term
high, they didn't consolidate just

like the seasonal tendency does.

Then in 2014, we see the rally going
all the way up into the very high of the

fader cattle market in October, 2014.

Then in April, 2015, we see
price rally again, but it falls

out of bed a little early.

So in August of that month, or
that year, we can see that it had

already started to decline, but we
still saw an impulse of price move

higher in the feeder cattle market.

After a long-term breakdown in markets.

And in 2016, we see price actually
not see the seasonal, fancy have

any impact whatsoever because of the
raw bearishness on feeder cattle.

Then in this year, 2017, we can
see the April created a nice little

short term, low at the dollar.

And then it rallied and we've since
rally up to 160, which is a phenomenal

price move for feeder cattle.

And we still may even go higher.

But looking at what's
already happened this year.

It's been a nice rally from the one
30 level up to 160, every 100 basis

points or one full point or handle is
$500 per contract for feeder cattle.

Hey, the next one is live cattle.

This is what you get before
you get an hamburger.

These are the living, breathing cows.

So the Cecil tenancy for this
commodity is a high forming in

the February, March time period.

And he sees a low forming in June.

So ideally the stronger impulse
is to see a low form in June.

So there's usually a market period.

St in the middle of the year,
going into the end of the year.

So it's real easy to use that information
by looking for July, essentially on

the weekly chart, find July and see if
that creates a low up into the January

time period so that we can see the
weekly chart to find the July in 2012.

And look at the January, 2013,
you can see it did in fact, rather

than between these two price
points, then in 2013, we can see.

That it did rally as well in June of
that year, all the way up into the end of

2013, going into 2014, then again in 2014,
June, it creates the low of the year.

And then it rallies incredibly
going up in creating the high of the

year in what looks like November.

And then the following year, um,
we had the market in a bear market

in info influenced by Cecil.

Essentially, this didn't have any
impact at all during the June July time

period, but the sell off in February,
March starting in 2015, you can see

that they actually called really nice
shorts and tops in the marketplace.

And as the market was bearish,
January, February, March time period

each year was creating a really nice
sell offs as the market was bearish.

And then we created a nice low in
2016 in the October time period,

which doesn't fit anything seasonally,
but we started to trade higher.

And now this year we saw the market have
a little bit of a decline in the February,

March going into April, but then April.

May and June, we're seeing the
effects of that seasonal tendency

here with higher prices on cattle.

So again, really strong
seal tendency here.

If you can blend it with
technicals, it's a really strong.

Excellent is lean hogs.

Okay.

If you like, you're making cheeseburgers,
this is where your bacon comes from.

You used to do, uh, pork bellies, but,
uh, they don't treat those anymore.

All right.

So we're looking at the seasonal fantasy
for this one and in my opinion, and

please take this with a grain of salt.

If you're looking for a seasonal
tendency that is one other dandy.

This is the closest thing to perfection
in terms of my ability to find and

study things over historical data.

This one here is a super one.

This one is a buy in March, April, and
in a high forming in may, June down into

a seasonal low of September and October.

Okay.

So primarily if you're gonna be
a buyer of lean hogs, we're gonna

be looking for a buy around the
February, March time period.

Basically we look for April on our
weekly chart and just go to the left

though at one line and you should see
a seasonal low at that time period.

So we're going to look at 2013, April the
one vertical line to the left of the April

delineation, and that's going to be March
and you can see that it nails the 2013.

And it rallies all the way up into July
creates the seasonal tendency to high

and falls out of bed the next year.

And you can see in 2014, we get a
phenomenal opportunity to see February,

March time period, Cecil Sansi rally.

It goes vertical.

It goes insanely high way high.

That is a millionaire maker.

That right there is a mega trade.

That's what it looks like when
you see types of moves like that.

It's, it's hard not to be
pleased with a move like that.

It's incredible.

And the seasonal, fancy
high forming in July.

Well, look what happened in
2014, it nailed the high.

Then in the 2015 time period,
you can see the seasonal tendency

as well, occurs in March.

It rallies up into the June.

July time period creates the seasonal
tendency high and falls out of bed.

The following year.

Again, we see the March April
time period creates the seasonal.

Well, it rallies up into June, July
and creates the high sells off, goes

down into September, October, and.

This year, we saw again, the March,
April time period, see some tendency

for lean hogs, the rally, and it
has done so in stunning fashion.

So this one here is one of those best kept
secrets traders that trade commodities.

They probably never see this,
but I can tell you everyone that

trades commodities professionally
and they trade agriculturals.

They trade this one.

Every.

All right.

See some panties for Coco.

All right.

Uh, you like your cocoa hot chocolate?

Uh, you like your candies?

Well, that's where we're
getting it from cocoa.

So the seasonal tenancy for this one
here while it's muddy a little bit,

if you look at it, um, the best ones
I see are a load of form may June

up into the September, October time.

So we're looking for a seasonal high
to form, basically the last week

of August going into September and
making the seasonal low last week of

may going in the first week of June.

So we can find July in our chart
and go over one to the left one

work line to the left, and it
should be a seasonal low forming

trading up into October time period.

So let's test that out on the 2013.

Ear.

So we're gonna look for the July,
2000, all Starling on 2012, Michael.

Uh, you can see that there was a,
certainly a rally that traded up into

the September time period in 2012.

And we see it occur in 2013.

We see it occur in 2014.

You see it occur in 2015.

It was a rally that we actually did
a study on last year, if you were

following me as, um, part of a, uh,
the license and I was doing on YouTube,

uh, we did a case study on the cooker
market as a, by trading up to that,

uh, thirty two hundred and thirty two
fifty level, which ended up becoming,

uh, a pretty neat, uh, case study.

We used some options in there.

Uh, it didn't trade longterm a
lot longer, higher price move.

It did go to what we were looking for
and we saw doubles and triples and our

options as, as a, as a paper trade.

And in 2017, uh, we're entering
obviously the same type of thing here.

We see Coco rallying from the 1800
level up almost two to 2100 levels.

So we've saw that same influence
as well with the seasonal tendency.

Okay.

This one here, orange juice.

This one has as a strong
Tennessee for September, October

low the form, and then rally.

So basically the easiest thing to do is
find an October and see if it creates a

low and save it rallies into December.

We're basically one vertical line
to the January mark to the left.

Okay.

So you can see that that
rally did occur in 2020.

It did occur in 2013, it did occur
in one, one left late in 2014.

Nailed it on 2015.

Nailed it in 2016.

And we'll have to see if it's
going to do it this year.

Okay.

Coffee.

I liked this coffee market when I was a.

More active commodity trader.

I don't trade commodities anymore,
but when I was, I was always following

coffee and this pair, when it moves,
it can move a lot and it's best

time to be a buy is June, July.

Um, you can see that this last 15
years there's been a seasonal tendency

for it to create a low in mid June,
June, but seasonally over historical

long period of time, four years.

It's usually the month of July.

And if we go and look at every July, you
can see that it does create a low in 2012.

Uh, doesn't create so much of wine
in 2013 does nail one beautifully

in the 2014 year in July.

And doesn't do so much of a job of it
in 2015 does a wonderful job in 2016.

And I'm almost certain, we'll probably
see one of those occur this year.

So we'll be watching.

The coffee market going into the
next month of 2017 for bearishness.

Uh, the ideal scenario is to look for
April may high, and we can see by looking

at the time when some of the market was
bearish, April creates a April may time

period in 2013 has a nice sell off there.

Uh, it creates a high in 2014
sells off rather nicely there.

And in 2015, when it was
bearish, the April may time

period created a nice sell off.

Took a little bit of time.

Lethargic went down from
this time of the year.

Um, we had a small little
retracement lower in 2016,

nothing, nothing real significant,
but this year we have seen the.

April may time period, create
bearishness for the coffee market.

And we're seeing that here in
place, option K seasonal tenancy.

Next, the ends, our discussion for the
agriculturals is cotton a very strong one

of the sell off in the may time period.

So we can look for the April
portion of our weekly chart and

see if there's any offs from April.

And you can see in 2013, a
really nice sell off for the

94 cents a pound in cotton.

It trades down to 80 cents, 14 cents.

Each one for handle is
$500 for this commodity.

And the next one we have in 2014 creates
the height of the year and sells off

rather precipitously, many, many, many.

Handles lower.

And in 2015, we had some
consolidation, as you would probably

expect after a big move like that.

We saw in 2014, we was in consolidation,
but yet it still had a little

bit of a sell off where it moved
about 400 basis points or $2,000.

Then in 2016, we did not see
so much of a high seller.

In April.

And we ended up seeing the low
form and it started rallying.

So that actually shown how the bare sense
that would be expected in the seasonal

tendency for cotton in April, may we
saw it rallying, and that's going to be

an opposing force showing you that if
it's not following the normal business

routine of selling off in the spring,
it's showing you there has been a strong,

underlying strength behind this commodity.

And you can see it's been
straight up since then.

And in the following year, uh,
what we're we're now time of

year, this recording is 2017.

We did not see a sell off again,
either winning importantly, we

only saw like 300 basis points.

So all from 78 to 74, but it
rallied precipitously going

into the 87 cents a pound.

Okay.

First in our discussion of the financials,
we're looking at crude oil, strong

tendency in the beginning of the year,
the rally and creating a seasonal tendency

height in September, October time period.

So we can look in January of
2013, we can see that it did.

In fact, uh, in this case,
sell off a little bit, didn't

have a seasonal tendency there.

Uh, but we did see a decline in the
September, October time period of that.

Creates the high.

And then we have in January, 2014,
the Crudo market did in fact rally

trade it up into the month of June
of that year in 2014, creating high.

And it sold off rather aggressively.

And we see in the following
year, 2015, we see a Senate

seasonal tendency for it to rally.

And it does, it does
so for about, uh, 1500.

Basis points.

And then we see price in 2015, we see
that their October seasonal tenancy create

a high around that $15 a barrel mark
and trades down into the seasonal oil.

It would be expected to see January
of 2016 and price rallies all the way

up into what we saw for the seasonal
tenancy outline to the left perfectly.

And then we saw price, consolidating it to
be in 2017 and then slowly dropping lower.

So there's been no seasonal tendency
support for bullishness in the first half

of this year, price has been going lower.

So what is it telling you?

There's a lot of supply, only oral market.

So we're going to probably see
oral trade lower because there's

been no significance on the upside
when there seasonally should be

the next one.

It is the high-grade copper market.

And again, this is kind of like wheat,
it's kind of iffy best times to be

buying copper or the month of June.

And the month of November.

Best scenario for selling
is September and April.

Okay.

So we're going to look for April to
create a high, you can see that April

sold off in 2013, it's sold off in.

2015 and we had a sell off in 2016, and we
had a little bit of a sell off this year.

Um, for the long side, let's find the
July time period and see if to the left

of it for June creates a low in 2012.

We see happening there, Cecil tenancy
long stays on Tanzi long for 2013

in June that came to fruition 2014,
we had a little bit of a long also.

And in 2015, we did not have the
seasonal low formation or the seasonal

tenancy, uh, by, that would be
normally expected in June, July, 2015.

Didn't have, it did have a, so
often that at year September.

So we had a seasonal tendency for bears
and it's to come into a factor and.

In April of 2016 had a little bit of
a off, but it's consolidated and we've

stayed in a range for the entire,
basically the majority of 2016.

And finally it rallied in the
November time period, October,

November time period of 2016.

And then in April of this year,
we saw that seasonal tendency so

far declined a little bit as well.

So.

When copper goes into a premium,
which we'll learn about in the next

lesson, this is one of those metals
that can do extremely, extremely well.

And if it's bullish and the
seasonal tenancy says that June

and November is a good time to be
a buyer that has a premium, this

market can really, really move.

Okay.

This one's a really simple one.

It's a buyer's market.

So we look for the July, August
low the form, and that's it.

We don't look for anything else.

Um, you can look for a sell off in
January, February if you really want

to be hard-pressed for a short, but
generally the ideal scenario is to

look for long and the reason why all
the jewelry that gets sold it in your

Christmas time and new year's and
all that business, uh, it has to be.

Obviously mind, it has to be
stored as to be processed.

It has to be turned into the jewelry
and then put to market early enough.

So that way everyone can buy it,
wrap it up and put it on any sort of

tree, but in a year for Christmas.

So the seasonal tendency
for gold is just that.

So we're going to look for
July the, create the lows.

So if we go into July, 2012, lo and
behold, we have a rally and gold,

and we see a rally in 2013 in July.

We see a high forum in 2014.

There's a rally that
forms in 2015 in July.

There's a rally that occurs in June,
July of 2016 ends up making a high.

And then, well, we don't have July yet.

Well, July or early next month.

So we'll see if we get
that rally occur in.

Okay.

Lastly, in our series of seasonal
tendencies is the silver.

Much like gold.

We're looking for July, August time
period for a low and silver can make

a selling point in February, but we're
focusing primarily on being a buyer of

silver, because if this market does go
into a parabolic bull market, which it

tends to do that every 10 or 12 years,
um, if you look at what we've been

seeing here for longterm silver, it
looks like it's poised to make a nice

run and it could go up to the 27th.

Maybe even 28 and you'll see why I
was Wallish and the time we've been

spending together in this mentorship,
why I believe this metal could have

some real legs with it can go higher.

It doesn't mean it can't
go higher than 28th.

It gets on a rip, but that's
what I think is going to go

over the next 18 months or so.

So if we see the

seasonal tendency for silver to occur,
In the July, August time period, we

can anticipate the July woe to form.

So we'll find all the July's and see
if there's a low for me, 2012, the

low in July, 2013, a low in July.

And there's a high forming in 2014.

And there's a small little
consolidation in 2015, 2016.

We had price rally up
and then create a high.

In July and we are getting ready
to have July this year for 2017.

So we'll see if we have that bullishness
of a impulse descent, silver higher.

That concludes the discussion for the
seasonal tendencies, because I've already

mentioned the commodities for calm
dials in our discussion earlier in this

mentorship, when I discussed all the
seasonal tendencies for currencies and

how they relate to Forex, um, Not going
to use the bond market or debt instruments

either because I use those also in the
discussion for seasonal tendencies.

So these are the markets I like.

There's other commodities
that you can trade.

Obviously you can trade canola,
you can trade rice, you can trade

butter and trade milk futures.

Um, you can trade, uh, palladium and
platinum and you can trade natural gas.

So there's other.

Contracts that you can trade and obviously
the index, but which we'll talk about

next week in our teachings for June,
2017 content, but for commodities, these

are the ones that I like to highlight.

These are the ones I had
historically in my basket.

I like to look at, um, there are some
quirky little things that I did with

the thinner markets, like canola.

And rice where I would usually
open interest to client on that

to frame whether or not the green
complex was bullish or bearish.

And back in the early nineties, I felt
that there was validity to that and

actually used it in my teaching material.

Then, uh, over the years I've learned
that that wasn't entirely true.

It just means at the time all
the grains were going up because

all commodities were going up.

So it was a drought across the
board in the nineties, and it

just caused all kinds of prices.

For, uh, all the grains.

So that's why they all went up
and any open interest declined.

You know, I was erroneously attributing,
the open interest decline and canola and

rice as supporting roles to why wheat
and soybeans and corn should go higher.

And.

That's not true.

I use the same thing with oats.

Uh, we look at oats and I would
look for the open interest decline

there, and that would support
bullishness for the green complex.

And I can tell you, I
was very, very wrong.

My teaching that stuff back then.

I didn't know what I was doing.

And now, because I've been looking
at this stuff for over two decades,

I know that open interest is directly
related to only that particular

market, uh, after all it's.

Commodity, not something that
can be shared in ideal of.

So I've learned over the years, a lot
about how these markets work and operate.

And when I was on America online, I
thought I had everything figured out

as a early neophyte, but I didn't have
much of a understanding all actually.

But, uh, in my opinion, these seasonal
attendings have held up very, very

well over the last 20 plus years.

I'm going to counsel you to come
to your own conclusion, whether or

not there's any validity to them.

The best way I can tell you to use them is
use everything else we've done so far in

mentorship, blend these things together.

If we know that there's a seasonal impact
for prices to move higher for a particular

commodity and you know which ones they
are every year, when you get a count.

Okay.

Or you can just program it
in your, and your phone.

If you have a smartphone,
just putting your smartphone.

And at the beginning of every month,
make a list of all the seasonal

tendency influences that you should be
expecting for that particular month.

That way every month, when you sit down
on your charts and say, okay, well,

seasonally, this is a good time for
this particular market to go higher or

this particular market to go lower and
then go into your analysis and see, not

force it, but they'll can see if there's
reasons to justify that seasonal tendency.

Here's the wonderful thing.

If it's not on, you know, basically
following the seasonal tendency, it's

telling you something either it's
going into a long-term consolidation,

which you can't make money with,
or if it's not consolidating,

it's going the opposite direction.

That's means there's very
significant strength.

If the seasonal tendencies calling
for lower prices and it's not

doing that, it's going higher.

It's actually telling you
something there's a strong

demand for that commodity.

Check and see if it has net long
positions in the commercials.

As we discussed so far in the
beginning of this month, I give you

ways to look at the heading program.

Wait for them to go into our hedging
by program and go in and test

your discount rates and see if you
can get any movement off of that.

Hopefully you've learned
something from this teaching.

I can't tell you how.

Richly, these graphs have blessed
my understanding of the marketplace

over the last two decades.

And I'm sure if you study them and
hold them close to your heart, like

I did, they will serve you equally.

Well, if not better.

And until next lesson, I wish
you good luck and goodbye.