All language subtitles for 030617_l

Okay, new week new opportunities.

So we're going to be looking at a
few things I'm going to be watching

for this week for live setups.

And it's important to have this
stuff on your charts in advance.

So that's what we're going to cover
this morning in brief fashion.

This is a daily of the dollar index, and
I have a few levels in here that have no.

Uh, first and foremost, we have a fair
value gap up here, uh, dipping ins,

but to last up candles low, and today's
high that's left the remaining void

or gap and sell side delivery only.

So we'll be looking for buy-side
delivery up to that point where

I'm looking for this week is an
indication of the willingness to go

much above the 1 0 180 to one or two.

If it shows me resistance in here,
then I'm going to view that as just

closing the gap and then maybe reaching
down for the sell side liquidity.

And maybe even around below here,
that would actually give me a

bullish scenario for Euro and pound.

If I see price trade through that
1 0 2 level in convincing fashion,

then I'll be expecting a much more
prominent decline on Euro and cable.

The trigger I'm looking for is how we
trade at that 1 0 180 2, 1 0 2 level.

So I'm watching for that to be traded to
today, preferably into Tuesdays long and

open because my first earliest opportunity
to trade will be Tuesday New York open.

Okay.

So I'm waiting for that.

Uh, the reason why I'm waiting for
this condition is because the bond

market, as I showed you on Friday,
Is in a tight consolidation and

that's causing all of the markets to
stay in a very tight trading range.

Now it's not that we can't trade in
those environments, but because I'm

in a contest, I really, really want
my trades to be high probability.

And I want to be able to do as
much leverage as I possibly can.

Within reason to allow the, uh, the
compounding effect to do its work.

So until we get to 1 0 180 2, 1
or two big figure, I'm neutral.

I'm sitting on my hands.

I do not see us breaking down from here.

I think we're going to at least touch
one-on-one 80 before we go lower.

If we do go lower for the dollar
index, but I'm looking for some.

That one or two wants to be treated
through and convincing fashion.

Okay.

So I'll give you more insights about that.

I don't even see this last
up candles opening, which

comes in the form of 1 0 1 90.

I don't think that's going to be
a, uh, a bear or a block in words.

I think if we're going to go up
to this level here, 1 0 180 and

trade higher, it's not going to
stop at the opening of that candle.

I think it's just going to go right on.

And that's okay.

I'm okay.

That's fine.

I just am not confident yet that this
high is going to be traded to after

we have already rejected this high.

Cause remember last week I only wanted
to see a small little retracement.

They gave back a lot of
ground here for dollar.

So all we're focused is
returned back to this area here.

When this last two down closes.

The bull shorter blocks means
threshold, which is empty.

And so that means right, there is
this abbreviation so that we would

start seeing some abbreviations.

And I didn't want to confuse you, but
these are the general things that I

use as a monthly bullish or block this.

If this level is here, we
already traded into that.

We moved away from it.

We cleared the equal highs.

Now what I want to see is there,
is there evidence that that costs

more displacement on the upside?

Now, if we weren't stuck in a range on
the bond market and we weren't rejecting.

The highest formed in here.

So aggressively on Friday, then I probably
would have been more gung-ho about taking

the, um, the long dollar stance now.

And just be start you just to
start shorting, uh, Euro and pound.

But I want to make sure that what
I have makes sense in terms of.

The larger picture here.

So I don't want to get caught in just
a runabout, these equal highs, and

then they reject it and trade lower.

We are still, you know,
rather large consolidation.

So for the first, at least the
first month for, uh, my Robin's

contest, I'm only going to be
focusing primarily on day trades.

And it may be even limited to just
the session alone, New York session

in London session, that type of thing.

But, uh, as there's more equity builds.

Then I'll start going into a little bit.

Longer-term holds like one shot, one kill,
but I want to build a little bit of a base

into it, but in terms of analysis and what
I'm looking to trade right now, I want to

see that one at 180 to one to two level,
uh, traded to this week on dollar index.

That's the, that's the trigger for me.

So I had to see those levels
before I can take any trades,

Euro pounds hit our objective.

I clean up, I stops about here.

Once clearing it.

We're seeing some rejection in here.

Uh, the last down candle becomes an
area of focus for short-term support.

So we watching this level on here

comes in 85 90 could dip down
to 85, 80, but we're watching

8,600 to 85 80 that level there.

And then we may be going up to close.

The gap between this candle
low and this candles.

Hi,

Euro dollar.

This one's a little finicky.

If you look at what's been going on
for this payer look, we had, we had

one high, higher, high, higher high,
and then we came all the way back up.

And if you remember last week, I said,
I didn't see it coming back up here and

taking that out, but it did it absolutely.

Did that look what it
does similar to this.

We had a high high, and
then we went higher.

Again, that's not market symmetry.

Okay.

We're seeing both the Euro and the
dollar index move in the same direction.

No, no, no, no.

That does not make high
probability conditions.

So there has to be some more smoothing
out between these two pairs again,

to give some kind of a symmetry
to the marketplace right now.

Making sense for Euro to be trading,
taking a high SIS like the dollar index.

They should not be doing the
same thing, but that's indicative

of a trading range of Ironman.

And again, go back to showed you on
Friday, uh, the bond market being

in that really tight, narrow daily
chart consolidation or range-bound

environment, that's putting a lot
of pressure on holding all the other

asset classes and trading, right.

So I'm going to zoom in
here on a four hour basis.

Okay.

I'm going to show you what
this box is here in a second.

Cause they're actually trading right
up into it now, but we had one high,

higher, high, another high, and
we went one more time up to it and

look at that strong rejection there.

That's actually very, in my
opinion, helpful, because I'm

hoping that we see bullish dollar.

On this whole element of a higher high
prior to these highs, and then they

came back one more time to make sure
nobody can make money going short to

take out the equal lows below here.

Okay.

So I'm kind of like tipping my hand.

I really want to see a strong
dollar because I want to try to

capture about a hundred pips of a
move or so short on your dollar.

He shot down into an hourly.

And you can see there's our breaker
short-term high was traded to and

through rejected and traded lower.

What I'm doing is I'm using these
candles here, this one right here,

and you'll see it in the recording.

If you can't see my cursor, it's
gonna be a short video today

anyway, and this candle's high.

So I'm basically framing out
the breaker on those two ranges.

I mean, I'm more specifically
looking at that last off candles.

Which comes in at 1 0 6 big figure.

So I'm watching one or six big
finger to see if there's any

element of resistance there.

If it wants to trade back up inside
this green candle or the high, I'm not

really, I'm not really convinced that
it's going to be a sell scenario, then

it should not give much of an upside
at all inside of that last up candle.

So we should be seeing
price stifled on the upside.

At that 1 0 6 big figure.

So that becomes a catalyst now,

mostly like it is otherwise
it's going to drive me crazy.

So if we hit this level 106 big
figure, then we'll probably look for

a rollover and go lower and then start
trading down into these equal loads.

There's a small little liquidity pool.

From a sell side liquidity
rate, the low here,

GSL solid clay resting below here.

And.

This might not give me the opportunity
to get short as well as white.

Um, I don't like the price action here.

Hear stabbed down, came back
and we tried to make another

lower, low today fail to do so.

So far, we're only whipping
below these candles bodies over

here, which is a liquidity pool.

We were already identifying for a month.

Now it's a better sell.

I think if we get back up into
this level here, or maybe even.

All it would be necessary as
a move back to this old low,

which isn't that big of a deal.

And it's not that far away in terms
of range, but that's a level I'm

watching for, for cable, for cell.

If we get to the bullish dollar.

So it has to be in concert with them
another, so please don't take this

because I'm going to contest now.

I'm telling you I want to sell this
level and two and do indiscriminately.

I'm going to be looking at if there's
reasons to indicate higher dollar.

So I like that level
here on cable for cell.

If the dollar is bullish and I liked the
level one or six on your dollar, if the

dollar is bullshit, and if we hit this
level at the cable, we'll be looking to

trade down inside the sell side, liquidity
Fairvale, you got down here and then

making a run down for the 1 19 91 20 big.

All the dollar.

We're still watching
this level here at one.

I'm sorry.

I always add a one in
front of these pairs.

You could tell me your own
dollar, uh, cable Schrader.

I always put a one in front of my prices.

Point 76, 20.

Okay.

So we have that level in mind.

So we hit that level.

It could trade through it a little bit.

I'd rather not actually trade
up into this last off candle.

It's a bearish or block.

Let's see a, hit this as
a breaker, respect that.

Cause it's gonna be much more indicative
of a run to the shaded area down here.

Closing in that.

So watch 76 20 this week, a dollar
CAD still looks like it's holding

its own around that 1 30, 80 level.

Next upside is 1 30, 4 75.

And the fair value gap up in here and
ultimately a run on 1 36 big figure

to clear out the equal highs up here,
which is kind of like diametrically

opposed to what we're expecting for.

Eurodollar in terms of its lower
and objectives that equal lows,

we're seeing the opposite in terms
of equal highs at the dollar tab.

We're at the bullshitter block relative
to the daily chart on dollar yen.

So far small little support coming in
there that we have equal highs here,

and then we have equal highs here.

So there's a lot of buy-side liquidity
resting above this pair, which also

bodes well for a bullish dollar.

So it kind of like that scenario still,
as we start looking at these dollar

front pairs, like dollar yen, we're gonna
take a look real quick at dollar store.

Uh, we had the means threshold on a
daily order block mapped out last week.

Let's go down to an Allie chart.

You see its sensitivity,
Bella making herself known.

Here's a daily order block in here.

I mean, threshold down in here.

We're in the last two down candles here.

Hit that just inside this one hour candle.

So we're looking for outside
expansion, equal highs in here.

So we have buy-side liquidity
resting at 1 0 1 40.

That's the first area of sell-side
liquidity aim for right there.

And we do have a liquidity pool
resting below here, but we're

looking at higher timeframe charts.

So it's more likely to reach for
this side here than it is here.

We already went and tried polo this low.

Can we try and make a run below into
the low and here low, lower rejected.

So we're going to try to look
for some expansion on the

outside, on the dollar index.

Gold swept down below one 12, I'm sorry,
1225 rejected that we're still in a

larger consolidation until we break below
these equal highs up in here in the of

let's look at the close here, 12, 17.

So it goes back to 12, 20 12, 15 support.

If we lose 12, 15, we're going down below.

These levels in here on gold.

I don't see that yet, but
it would break its back.

It needs to close decisively
below 12, 15, my opinion,

Silverstein scenario,
looking for consolidation.

I like to see the metal fold up
against the dollar rally too, because

that will only give me a swing
trade scenario for bullish dollar.

And then we could look for
a failure swing ultimate.

And then if you have a lower dollar
index, then that would give us a

really loaded deal for bullish foreign
currencies for about three to six months.

But that has to come to fruition.

And I haven't been talking about
New Zealand dollar, but using the

dollar trading back into a area of
oldness to traditional order flow.

Uh, last two down candles in here.

So we're trading rate in that
range now, small little fair value.

Got.

Be mindful of this this week, because
this may be a catalyst for future setups.

And it's also overlapping with a
breaker to have down close in here.

Wait for a short-term high eight ran out.

So we have a small,
lower level breaker here.

And then we have another breaker
rate here on this candle.

So there's two levels that could
potentially see price draw higher.

Um, if we get above the E's equal
highs here, we're in for a longer

term, uh, three month bullish
scenario for New Zealand dollar.

Remember these for interest rate
differentials for all the and Kiwi

are still beneficial for carry trade.

Be mindful of that as well.

And I think that's going
to be it for this morning.

Nothing terribly exciting on the radar
screen, we are in 1 0 6 0 5 to cannot.

It can't get above this level,
in my opinion, to be ideal.

Now we do have the breaker mapped
out just to this candle's high.

It comes in at 1 0 6 0 9.

So it could spread to 1 0 6, 10.

Again, the deeper we get into this
candle, the more unlikely it is.

See us rollover through on
the sell side liquidity here.

We want to see sharp rejection in here.

And if we get that, we'll
be looking for a move Lord.

Now I don't want to see a deal today
because ideally I want it Tuesday trade.

That's what I want.

So we'll see, hopefully it's some level
of consolidation in here and then we'll

try one more time to make a punch at it
on Tuesdays on open and then reject that.

And that'll be the height of the day
and hopefully the high the week, at

least for the first half that we can.

That's what I'm trying to.

One more quick.

Look,

I like all the.

At this level, but not for terrible
amount of pips, it has to be a

real strong rejection at that 76,
20 level to really get down here.

Again, this is a strong interest
rate market, so you're really

selling a strong pair to do so.

So if you're gonna to do that,
just keep it as a day trade.

And then closing 1 23 35, the 1 23 40.

I like that level this week for cable.

So that's a trigger level for me
to get some selling on if I get a

bullish dollar and that's it folks,
nothing else to talk about again,

we're only focusing on setups.

I'm not going to be doing too much.

Jawboning from this point on
short, concise, and to the point.

So until I talk to you later
on this afternoon with a daily

recap, wish you good luck.

Good trading tomorrow.

We will begin again tomorrow
around eight o'clock.

And depending on our field tomorrow,
and we may elect to start a little bit

earlier, maybe like 7 45 and go till 8 45.

I think it's going to be our,
our window we're looking for.

Cause that gives us like a 15 minute time
window past the eight 30 news embargo.

So usually when a news release is
right, eight 30, that gives us 15

minutes of watch time over my shoulder.

And that way you can guys can get
a better feel for what I'm looking

at for the New York session.

Okay.

Until then I wish you good luck.