Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

We will be talking about, uh, present market action, potential

setups that may be for me.

And I'm also going to talk about a relative strength

and this is a dollar index.

Okay.

We've outlined one-on-one 60 buy-side liquidity, really close to hitting it

so far today it's high nine pips away or points away from, uh, from hitting

that level could, could hit it today.

Intraday after eight 30 to nine 30 in the morning equity open

that could surge it up in there.

I said that if we see that that'd be hard for gold and silver, the rally, and we'd

see weakness on the foreign currencies.

Obviously it goes without saying, all right, so the dollar index again, we're

looking for that 1, 1 0 1 60 level still to unfold as an outside objective.

So we had the 1 0 5, 10 to 1 0 5 big figure, sell side liquidity.

That this should be where price draws to.

Now, if we pause in between where we have 1 0 6, but figure, I want to have five

big figure, it can go straight down to it.

But if it does not do that, if it pauses and starts to consolidate and trade up

to this level here at one to six, that may be a catalyst for a swing trade that

would allow us to take a short from 1 0 6 to 1 0 5 to one to four 80 thereabouts.

And then we could possibly look, look for a run below these lows on here.

I don't like the way the market structure is for that straight drop,

but if we get one little hookup in here to get to that one or six big

figure, that could be a good play.

Apart from that, there's really nothing in here.

Even though with this last up candle, I don't see that as a real

obvious, uh, bearish or block it.

And the reason why I say that is because we have this down candle.

Okay.

And it's already acted as resistance as a breaker.

We know once we went down below it here, Jay, back up into it and

it's already moved away from that.

So I think this has already been exhausted.

And for it to come back up to here would really just be more

of a larger term consolidation.

We can go sideways for a long time, or it could actually turn bullish.

Neither of those scenarios I see in here yet.

So I don't care about this up candle or viewed as a bear torture block.

Also it's already been traded into here.

So we've traded down through it.

Here, came back to it.

There said it's already on phase Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday.

So Monday is RA traded into that.

So it's not something that would be looking for.

So the liquidity is obviously going to be a draw down here.

So we're looking for 1 0 5 big figure 1 0 4 80 is a downside objective.

But if we get a retracement back up the one to six, that could be a scenario.

We can see a short for.

You know, a hundred pips or so on Euro dollar the cable again,

I thought I was saying earlier, but, uh, it's really sloppy.

We had a lot of wicks okay.

On, on both sides of the marketplace.

And while it's finally bending in aid to the dollar index strength, um, I don't

think it's going to stop just below this swing low or this long wet candle.

So if it goes below here, uh, we've already went to the means threshold

apparently, or approximately rather with this last down candle, we've

essentially already went to it here.

So for it to come back down to that level and come back through it, that

to me, isn't going to be bullish or a turtle soup or false break below

an old, low, or a stop run because this has already been a stop run.

So if that goes down to that level again,

Any movement below this level.

Anything below that level here is just going to expand and make a run for the

liquidity below these candles over here.

As you can see, there's 1, 2, 3 candles, nice and tidy that

doesn't stay like that long.

Plus we have a little bit of a void in here so we can see some of that close in

and see 2160 and the gap down in here.

We can watch for that to be a longer-term objective.

So what's the scenarios for cable.

If we continue to see dollar strength, if cable slips and we

come back up to this level and they give you a marker for that as well.

Okay.

If we trade down and come back up and leave this level, untouched.

No worries.

If we can trade down a little bit more and come back to that 24 20.

Or 24, 25 rather, uh, that could be a selling scenario.

It could be as low as 24 20.

It could stop there as a retracement up to that.

So just be mindful because we have, we have these two highs here.

We have one here and one here, so we acted as support.

We've acted as support, but now we've given it up.

So we may see some, uh, capitalization of, uh, shorts around that 24, 20,

24 big figure as it comes back to it.

So it's got to come down and my family one more day or a little bit more than

we've already seen today on today's low.

So it's got to go below 24 big figure, obviously.

So once it comes back, if it comes back, that would give us a

scenario to look for a run below.

23 42, 23 big figure, and then making a run for the cell stops below 20 to 60.

So we'll be looking for 20 to 50 the downside.

So it could see about 200 PIP, a swing on a swing trade idea.

Should that come to fruition?

Now, if it doesn't do that, it makes it run straight for this.

This may become a short term support, broken resistance play, and then that

would give us a run for the 21 21 60 level and then make a run for the gap.

So, um, I just don't like this WIC here and I don't like the

it's been really wicked on both sides and it's been consolidating

and it's been relatively strong.

And what SWAT, we're gonna talk about relative strength before we close

the session today, but, um, dollars.

Has not really caused this pair to break down aggressively as it,

in my opinion, it should have.

So it has some barriers that on, on the support side of things, it has

to get through this convincingly.

Once it does that, then we'll make a clean shot, right.

For the cell stops below here.

And then once it gets there, I don't think this is going to be stopping here.

It'll then expand, filling all the delivery of price here.

It's a lot of really spotty price action here.

So that may want to really come down and really balance all that out.

So longer term, probably six weeks from now.

We'll probably be seeing cable down here or have been traded at the 20 ones again.

All right.

Dollar cat.

Again, this thing has not had any sympathy play with the dollar index, which is in

alignment with what our analysis has been.

But this payer it's really heavy, uh, simply because of crude oil.

So, uh, the relationship between Canadian dollar and incurred that's,

what's impacting this currency.

And with the dollar index, you would think with all dollar base payers within

dollar in front of their name, like dollar swizzy, dollar yen, uh, they're all up.

But this pair here just can't find its way to go higher.

That's why I said that we got to be focusing on the sell side

liquidity and he goes, I still think this market's still heavy.

And even with the strength today, I mean, look at the dollar index here

and then go back to the dollar cat.

It looks sick.

It's lethargic.

So when the market wants to sell off in the dollar index, this is

going to be a pair that should move aggressively lower because it's

already predisposed to move lower and it can't find strength on the upside.

So we're keeping them focused still down here.

Now it changes.

Should we get above these candles in here show.

Now watch this.

If we have this low and we have this high and we retracing back down into

this area here, we filled in this area.

All this up candle, all buy-side delivery now has been balanced

out with sell side delivery.

If we can rally above here, then that would change the tune for this.

So in the longer term, and then we can start looking forward to it, to make a

run up into this level up here around the 35, uh, 1 35 big figure area, because it

would, it would imply rather if we broke above here, we to have a market structure

shift, then the daily would be bullish.

So then we could use a idea we'll teach a lot about in March.

Once that is in alignment, we can take all kinds of short term trades and

it also, once it breaks above this high, it will also set your, uh, ideas

for taking longs on swing trades.

And you can make a run for the highs up here in the bodies of these candles here.

So it could give us a lot more directional bias outside of

what we've already aligned to.

Looking for just sell side liquidity only.

So basically what I'm saying is in short, it's, we're going sideways

or we're going down below here until this high is taken out.

I don't want to take a long in this pair until we get a shift in

market structure that would imply bullishness if this high's taken out.

And so that happens on that, but we'll show $1 cat.

All right.

So Aldi dollar, we're going to talk about this one a lot today, but this

pair has been relative strength buys.

It's been very bullish compared to the dollar index dollar index trading up like

it has here should have broke the knees of Aussie dollar technically, but it hasn't.

And the reason why is because of the differential in interest rates, and

there's a lot of people around the world that see the interest rate differential

between this and the dollar index.

So therefore there's going to be money pouring into this.

Okay.

And I gave a question, um, couple of weeks ago and also gave a question

when I first started talking about all the back end, the middle of December.

And I stated that I really like Australian dollar, and I want you

to study why I like that one over top of the New Zealand dollar.

And some of you answered that question correctly and email you tweeted

it, but, uh, I'm gonna pose it to you right now while we're talking.

Why would you say, why would you think rather my election of supporting the

idea that Aldi dollar is the better buy over New Zealand dollar, both

have differentials that are positive.

Their interest rates are much higher than every other country around the world,

as it relates to majors and four X.

That's what I mean, not because I know the interest rates are higher, obviously, but

I wouldn't invest in there for currencies.

We'll come back to that question, but for now we're consolidating still.

And I really think that 77 50 still is in the cards or this

winding it up, keeping it tight.

It can't break down every time it does.

They find some, some buyers and they keep it in this tight little range.

Now think about what was taught to you in the, I think it was the first discussions

of, uh, I think I, if I'm not mistaken, I think it was market maker where you

have a level that starts to, um, present resistance or has presented resistance.

Like we have back here.

Okay.

And then price starts consolidating or like moving sideways.

Hasn't traded up to it yet.

It could be a, uh, it could be an old high, it could be a bear

shorter block, but when prices and consolidation, just below that

level, it's like it's crouching.

Okay.

Or winding up like a spring, imagine, uh, a spring in your hands.

Okay.

It's already coiled up anyway, but if you twist it even more in the

direction, it's formed it compresses and finally gets to the appointment.

I can't compress anything.

And when you let go of that bad boy, it's going to take off well, that's the,

that's the effect that's happening here is it's basically coiling and in tightly,

tightly ranges, then all of a sudden, when it can no longer be held in that range

anymore, it can't be consolidated anymore.

It's going to expand quickly.

And my question is, what direction has it been going in up?

What level has it left?

Untouched?

The buy-side liquidity over here.

So in terms of path of least resistance, is it more likely for this payer to crash

down and hit the sell side liquidity?

Or is it more likely to have to expand up and hit the 77 50 to

maybe even expand up to the 78?

Clearly it's leased.

The resistance is here.

You have more distance down here and you have all this market structure behind

you implying that the strength is there.

So if that's the case, it's going to be them wanting to pair

their long exits at 77 50 to 78.

So we would expect one more drive higher on this currency pair.

And it, it's a very supportive,

it's very supportive of the idea that, uh, the expansion is

more favored than a breakdown.

In other words, we want to see the bias that liquidity hit on this.

Now, again, couple this with, and this is what ha this is what gets folks stuck.

I get a lot of email from folks that are outside of this mentorship group.

And sometimes folks will say, look, you know, I'm looking at

it and it ain't making any sense.

These are the times where it causes this break in the normalcy.

You have dollar strength to therefore across the board.

You should already be thinking weakness on foreign currencies.

That's the general premise, but if there is a pair or pairs that are bucking

network, It's telling you that there's relative strength to that payer and

rail in relative terms to the dollar.

So in other words, as the dollar index has been trading higher.

Okay.

Since, um, beginning of February, if that's the case, then we should have

been seeing weakness from February, but we've seen strength, Dennis, that see

that on this, uh, frustrating February.

It actually rallied.

And then the second it rallied even harder and we've maintained bullishness.

We've consolidated.

We have not broken any major lows.

Okay.

And we're right below and layer an area of an old high, not dimension.

If we go out to a monthly, we have these equal highs back here.

Okay.

And it looks like it's very easily wanting to expand up into that area.

So while New Zealand dollar had initially had its bullish, And it was

able to be, uh, bought on swing trades.

Now this one is finally getting in sync on a longer-term basis where

while it looks to consolidate in here, if we go out to a weekly or

drop down to a weekly, I should say

we're seeing much more willingness to see it expand upon these equal

highs and maybe even challenge, like I said, the 78 level back here.

So we're, we're pausing, consolidating potentially one more time, expand

up and reach up into this level.

Here.

We also have a bearish or block back here on a weekly level, and

it comes with the low of 78, 76.

So we could still see much more movement if it rolls through these

highs and this high, we could see a trade up to that level.

I want a longer-term basis, despite what the dollar index is.

And that's why it's important that you always take a look at the

differentials on the interest rates.

You can simply go over to Forex factory.com or do a Google search

on world currency, interest rates.

And you'll see that, you know, all is in New Zealand dollar are by far

and large way ahead of everyone else in terms of their interest rate.

And that's why you seen that these pairs have done well even against the dollar,

but finally the New Zealand dollar broke its legs and had to go lower.

But, uh, the Aldi has been the leader.

And I'm going to talk about that in a few minutes, but let's get through the final

analysis and then we'll go over to, uh, your pound gold and silver, and then we'll

come back to all his, he has a discussion.

Uh, so we're looking for, uh, we have a small little liquidity pool

wrestling still below this low.

I like the fact that we didn't tag it yesterday.

It looked like we were going to expand through it.

Didn't do it quickly rejected that.

And now we're back in the middle of the consolidation.

So again, we're focusing on this payer wanting to likely expand

up, even if the dollar rallies.

Now, if we have a big run into that, one-on-one 60 on dollar index

here, which still is in the cards.

I, something we have not very many pips that were points to get to that level.

It probably we'll wait for that.

And then once at 1 0 1 60 levels hit on dollar, if dollar can pause or consolidate

or have a little bit of a retracement that will give the green line, go for this

pair that really pop up or not, not that 77, 50 to 78 big figure out, uh, once it

gets there, then we could get some measure of retracement because really, if you

look at what's happened here since this run, uh, December, or was it January?

Yeah.

December starts, uh, the route.

We have had not one single run on liquidity on a daily basis or chart

that no new runs on cell stops at all.

So if we can run up here and not take out any lows, think about

what I'm about to tell you now, because this is a really important

information, not paying attention.

Stop for a second and really dial in on this because the daily chart has

had zero runs or dips below any swing lows to take out, sell side stops.

Okay.

Or knock out bullshit traders.

They ha that hasn't happened yet.

So if we run from where we're at now, and don't take out this short term

low, if we run up to 77 50, okay.

We expect it to come down pretty aggressive.

At that point, if it traces 77 50 and doesn't pause or reject, it's going to 78.

If it gets to 78, we will look for a serious drawback in or retracement

then, and it will, it'll seek some short-term load and knockout stops.

Now here's, here's what I want you to think about since we have had no

breaks below any short-term loads on the daily chart, that means

all the trailed stop-losses are getting brought up really tight.

They're right under here.

And right under here now funds are going to be back here.

Short-term bulls or weaker bowls that don't want to have any kind

of real retracement against them.

They're going to have their sell stop below this low here.

I would have rather seen it come down yesterday and take

that out and then rally away.

Cause then that would really bolstered my idea about that 77 50 level being

just a speed bump and then 7,800 would be the ultimate objective.

And the reason why I say that.

They would have unseated the bulls by taking their stops out

here, picked up some more longs at a, basically a 76 level.

So that would give us another 200 point rally potential to get to 78 and there

they would be looking to unload their, because they have not taken any cell

stops out on the daily chart, given that, uh, condition there's been no

run on liquidity below the marketplace.

So if we hit a higher timeframe level like this back here, there's going

to be a whole lot more sellers to take profit and they won't have any

self stops below the marketplace.

Th the, the liquidity pools below the S uh, short-term lows will diminish because

of their profit taking at that level.

So if we would have seen yesterday trade down and take out that short-term

low and then be back we're right now, that would be very good for 7,000,

but because we have not seen any runs below the short-term loads on the daily

chart, stops are really trailed up.

They've locked in.

So that means if they get to this level, a great deal of re uh, retracement could

be expected because of major profit taking there has been no runs on any cell stops

below the marketplace on a daily basis.

So anyone that's been long all through this, uh, two month or so, uh, rally month

and a half rally, um, they locked in a good deal of their, uh, their profits.

So if we get up to that level and it fails, we will see a great, a great LAR,

a larger degree of retracement or sell off because profit taking won't take place.

And then to get to those sales stops, they're going to have to run a great

deal more to get down below here.

And if we all take the short-term low out, it would immediately go

for that level and the 75 90 level.

So just keep that in mind, Euro pound, uh, this pair.

Oh, there was sweet below these lows over here and now we're back above it.

So I'm not sure what this one wants to do.

Um, and it's all because of the cable, uh, cable to me while it's

still, you know, relatively bearish compared to the dollar index.

I don't trust it.

And when cable can be very sneaky, so, or, or watching that 2340 level

to see what, uh, what the reaction is, if at all, um, I'd like to see

again, get back up into that 24.

Uh, right now we're trading at 2390.

So we've gone below the 24 big figure, which is good.

But if we make straight run through here, then we have to watch this movie.

I don't think it's going to go down below 2340 and then come

all the way back up to 24 20.

I don't see that having, I think if it comes down here, it, if at all, we

don't get any retracement to 24 20.

It will come back maybe to 2340.

And that would be our opportunity to get short and make a run for this level.

And then here in closing the gap, But Euro pound, uh, this could still just

be consolidated, but ultimately I'd like to see it get down to this level here.

83, 40 gold.

We mentioned it was going to be hard for it to rally.

Uh, if we seen some dollar strength, if dollar would've consolidated that would've

given us the opportunity to get back up into at 1250, it has not happened.

We have a little bit of bounce off the level we had called before.

So while it didn't create a swing trade idea did give a profitable objective or

opportunity for a short term little idea.

But again, I don't talk too much about that because that's not the

scope of this month's content.

So we'll be watching this level.

It's noted down to the bodies.

The close comes in at 1217.

So we're going to be watching if there's any support found there,

it may not be, don't expect a whole lot, but the that's the structure.

Of the market rate in here, this old high.

So be mindful of what we see at that level.

If we see dollar punch up that at 1 0 1 60 level, which will now you go

just did it well once through it.

Now with that having done let's keep our eye on that gold market now, really?

Cause I was going to say this very thing.

If we get the 1 0 1 60 or, or punch above it, if we hit this low and go, I'm sorry.

If dollar index retraces or sells off there, that level

here could be some, uh, support.

And that may be a good area to watch some kind of a short-term low form, but given

the dollar index strengthen here, if we start to expand, now we have a new level.

We have to look at

again, disregard the WIC.

We don't care about this.

This was running for liquidity.

This is where all the bulk of the volume is.

So this is where your buy-side look what it is.

Now.

You're a dollar making a run for that 1 0 5 level almost so that's cool.

That's about to unfold a dollar CAD again, look, we just don't see

any kind of upside movement at all.

Very lethargic price action, all the dollar finally coming down a

little bit, but you would expect that they're really be breaking down.

Hasn't done it, but if it does, and we go below these lows again, be mindful of

this high, the buyers of these candles, because that was the one we were looking

for for a swing trade for Aldi dollar and still looking for that 77 50 to 78 big

figure as an upside objective don't sink.

I don't think we're topping like this to even two, two.

Perfect.

Okay.

In terms of highs.

So there's a lot of folks that are wanting to sell this payer

and their stops are gonna be dressed above or at 77 big figure

that are just about 77 big figure.

So they're going to have by stuffs.

All through this high and this level 77 50, and layered all

around that 77 big figure in 77 20.

So there's a big pocket of buyers up here.

Not because they want to buy on strength, but because they're trying to sell it.

And anyone that has been short from back here that longer term, they've been

waiting and hoping it distinct turns over.

And now they see this, this, okay, well, I'm going to drop my stock

from above here, down to here.

So this is just building up a huge, huge bullseye for the market

that run up there and hit that.

And that would be a perfect place to offset all the long positions they

built in, in this, in this pair from the last week of December, 2016.

All right.

So gold almost hit that level to be watching that one and silver.

We have one more push against the, the 1800 level.

Um, we had this or block we've already almost, I think we've touched it here.

Haven't we?

Oh, seven.

Yeah.

We've had it in 1773.

Again, with the dollar strength.

It's going to be very, very hard for this pair to rally.

And even though it's shown relative strength to move with

dollar dollar shining today.

So with this strength in dollar golden, silver got to put it's rally

on hold and we could be forming a re a reversal of some sorts or

an enemy or longer-term height.

Again, I don't try to pick those.

I just look for the meat in between.

So gold and silver, just be mindful that if they start to break down,

um, they could be runs on liquidity.

Like we saw here short-term low violate, and then we had a nice leg higher.

So we have short-term lows.

I'm not so excited about this little short term, low cause w

today's candle is still forming.

So this technically is not a swing low on a daily.

This is, we have a higher, low, and a higher low here.

So this makes us swing left.

So we have short-term sell side liquidity resting below, below on silver at 1750.

So sell software 17, fifth, so we could see a 26 points.

The client, if dollar really rallies, it could be, it could still be

good for longer term silver bulls.

If it takes out this low and they can say rejection there, um, I'd like to

see it consolidate, um, in here to allow us an opportunity to, to keep

the market structure intact for this payer or not payer, but this metal.

All right, so now let's talk about, uh, why Aussie dollar was elected to be strong

as payer versus the New Zealand dollar,

the payer.

All the versus New Zealand dollar, excuse me.

I apologize.

My voice is failing me this morning.

The Aldi versus New Zealand dollar is much like what we look at

when we look at the Euro pound.

Okay.

So if we're looking at closely correlated pairs like your cable, um, they, or

you're a dollar in British pound and say it like that, the same premise

is applied to all the New Zealand.

Generally, these pairs move in tandem, not always, but generally they do.

When this pair has a technical outlook that implies that it should be bullish

again, being all the New Zealand, if this pairs bullish or is at a level

that will be bullish, or you anticipate bullishness that is strength for Aussie

dollar and weakness for New Zealand, or it could be strength for all.

Or consolidation for New Zealand, or it could be weakness on the part of New

Zealand and consolidation on Aussie.

So there's several different things you have to go through there,

scenarios that you have to go through and look at your technicals.

And the same thing applies with the Euro pound.

And that's the reason why you're a pound is kind of

making a hard for me personally.

And I've got no shame in telling you because the conditions that you go

through to trade these, uh, um, not trade them, but you, the analysis

concepts, it's mixed the pictures mixed on all fronts with this currency pair.

I'd like to see a trade down here and we've been talking about

that, but it doesn't have a real clear, easy market structure to

work with and it's making it hard.

And the reason why is because of cable cables really made it difficult

to read this one, but in contrast, it's very easy to see what you see

on the Aussie New Zealand pair.

If you look at what we've seen back here, we have a nice little rally up.

Okay.

So it has been a real big displacement on the daily chart from this low here.

And I want you to think about this and it's the same idea as you're

going to apply when you're looking at the Euro pound and you're

going to be looking at, with, uh,

all the New Zealand going forward.

So when you look in a trading pair, like for instance, if we were in a room and

I asked everyone to raise their hand, say, okay, look, are we all, um, how

many in the room would raise your hand?

If you have a day job or you own a business and you don't have time to

get in front of the marketplace, Um, but you have all the evening hours

from like five o'clock to like 10 o'clock in the evening, New York time.

Okay.

Or the Asian market, basically, as some of you, invariably

would say, okay, that's me.

That's what I would be doing.

Well, if that's the case, then you would be not trading Euro

and cable as your go-to pairs, you would be trading in pairs.

And I don't know what I'm saying that word again, but you would be trading in

payers all the in New Zealand because of the type of, uh, pairs that they are.

They're they're generally, if they're going to be active, if there's any,

any pairs that's gonna be active in that time of day, the Asian session,

it's going to be that Japanese in New Zealand and all pairs.

So if that's what you're gonna be looking for, and that's what you want

to be really focusing on dialing.

Well, generally the Eden session is not that exciting, uh, for these pairs.

That can be not always, but it can be.

So if there's any fireworks or explosive market action in Asia,

it's usually these three pairs again, yen New Zealand and Aussie.

So we've seen price trade away from this low down in here.

Okay.

And we drop out to a weekly.

Okay.

Here's the here's that low.

It worked off up, but now locally we have here, we have a weekly, the

last down candle, right in here.

All we're doing is applying all the things we've been teaching right here.

So we have a weekly order block.

We have a short-term lowdown here.

We have price RA showing a willingness to run stops here.

So if we trade back down into that, are we expecting it to run this area?

Why?

Because it's already shown.

It took stats out back here and it had displacement.

It rallied high, came all the way back down, and there was some more

buying at this order block some more and dipped into it right there.

Now watch if we watch it or blocks or levels of where price has been bought

aggressively and can be defined in a candle here's equilibrium right there.

So now we can take that level and drop it out to a daily.

Yeah, it's a little bit busy, but here's equilibrium.

What are you doing here?

And we're going to remove the fifth.

Okay.

So here's your level crunch up a little bit more.

Okay.

So here's our weekly order block.

Short-term low and right below these bodies, these

candles as a rejection block.

So you want to see price reach through that can always go through the Wix.

But once this happens and we get a rejection and it rallies through, if

our timeframe that we're using to set up our trades are monthly, weekly,

daily, and we execute on a four hour.

Okay.

This down candle would be what you'd be looking to trade on or the four

hour, because you have your set up here based on monthly and weekly,

weekly being a bullshitter block.

Did we get some movement off of that?

Yes, we did.

Okay.

We have a daily bullish or block here.

The body of the candidate, it moves at least two or three times 1, 2, 3.

It does it on this candle.

So this is qualified as a bull shorter block.

Now we can take that level and move.

Here, hang on one second.

Okay.

So we have the order blocking here on a daily basis to rejection on a

weekly to all here, we have strength expected bullishness on this pair.

The name of the currency is Aussie versus New Zealand.

So if upside is expected on this payer, that means Australian dollar

is going to have relative strength.

Now, are we seeing that?

Okay.

Are we seeing that in the Australian dollar?

And are we seeing that in New Zealand dollar, let's go over

to the New Zealand dollar.

Excellent.

Give you a fresh chart on New Zealand.

Okay.

New Zealand dollar has rallied.

Yes.

Aussie dollar.

And where are we at here?

All of the dollar.

We have rallied it.

Yes.

It's rallied.

So have we seen a displacement on,

oh, in New Zealand at this point here on this candle.

It's February.

Yeah.

February 7th.

So February 7th, we have Australian dollar here,

right there.

There's the retracement down.

And there's been bullishness here on this pair and on the seventh of.

New Zealand,

that's it creating a high.

Now remember what I was saying earlier when you're using these payers?

Okay.

If there's bullishness on Aussie New Zealand, that means the scenario is

bullish Aussie dollar week, New Zealand, dollar or consolidation for all.

Um, I'll show you a dollar and weakness on New Zealand, dollar

or rallying and New Zealand dollar and weakness on New Zealand.

We're seeing the weakness on New Zealand and their relative

strength in Australian dollar.

Now, back here a little bit later in the

last week of December, we had New Zealand army.

Just like we have here and on the OZO Aussie New Zealand pair, we see

that happening here, that short term.

Well that same time, that was the first time it was trading aggressively

into that weekly order block and taking out daily short-term lows.

So the same scenario we're seeing here right here, we just

saw that same thing here, equal lows candles went down below it.

That's why I was saying that we would see Australian dollar strong overdue Zealand

dollar and coupling it with the interest rate differential because all the in New

Zealand have high interest rates compared to all the other foreign currencies.

And we have price have displacement here.

So we saw two instances.

We saw that the Australian dollar, um, becoming strong here, even though

that New Zealand and Aldi moved into.

Basically from the last week of December, 2016, and it rallied both

higher, the online strength because of this pair, all the New Zealand.

If you're going to be a buyer, you want to be buying Aussie dollar.

Even though that New Zealand dollar had a little bit, slightly higher interest

rate, they're still both strong compared to the dollar, but because of this pair

and the alignment of these equal lows and it running out that, that low here and

we're in a weekly order block, that was the reason why I told you all to go in and

study why I selected all the dollar over New Zealand while both would be moving.

Bullishly the New Zealand dollar has really took a hit here.

And it's showing also in a way of using it all the New Zealand dollar,

because yes, we have one more surge higher on this pair because of the

underlying strength and Aussie.

And you've seen no real breakdown on Aldi dollar at all.

Now that be.

And into the, uh, the mix here shortly, it could be, could happen today.

It could see it crush and break down.

But I ultimately think we're going to see 77 50 because of what I'm describing here.

I think because it won't break down, it won't go lower.

The technicals are still supporting this thing to go higher.

Even against this run with the dollar being bullish.

Like we've been looking for that one-on-one 60 level.

So in your notes, when you're looking at payers, okay.

If you're seeing pairs that are just having a real hard time

getting in sync with what, what the dollar should be telling you,

they should be doing all words.

All foreign currency should be bowing, their knees to the strength of the dollar.

It just, it goes without saying that's the normal procedure, but

because they may not be occurring, that fact is highlighting something.

And it may not be a direct link to that particular payer.

For instance, we've seen strength in Aussie while we know in relative terms,

the correlated pair with that currency, all the, is the New Zealand dollar.

So if that's the case, if the Aussie dollar is relatively strong against the

dollar, then that means that if there is no bias occurring in Aussie, then there's

gotta be what happening in New Zealand.

I'm asking for interaction on this part here.

Exactly selling.

So if you're seeing relative strength on Euro pound, okay.

Think about like this.

If you see a buying opportunity on Euro pound, okay.

And Euro is not going down.

Okay.

It's not having, it's not going higher, but it's not going down.

What would that mean for the.

Very good selling.

Very good.

Now, if that's, if we have the same, uh, idea with Europan being bullish, okay.

If the technicals for that pair are, are bullish and the Euro is rallying.

Okay.

If the Euro dollar is rallying and Euro pound is bullish, technically,

what would that imply or what you would anticipate seeing in the British pound USD

consolidation or down, but most likely going to be consolidation.

So you always want to elect to if the, if the pairs like this, like Aussie New

Zealand or Europan are clearly bullish.

One-sided one, one direction, whatever that they're a payer is

saying, if it's going to be higher, that means Europan most likely

is going to want to trend higher.

If it isn't true.

That means that that cable is going to be trending lower.

If the Aussie dollar against the New Zealand dollar it's

bullish and it can't rally.

That means that if all these in consolidation, then you're going

to be trending in New Zealand.

And what direction would it be

downhearted?

Right.

So now, if we look at these things, don't be discouraged.

Okay.

If you're looking at the marketplace, cause sometimes you're going to get

mixed signals and sometimes that's going to cause you to have to sit

on your hands and that's okay.

There's nothing wrong with that.

There are still other markets moving around, but they have to wait for them

to come to you, come to their setups.

But I get emails a lot about why certain things are occurring.

And one of the questions is why is Australian dollar going up?

When the dollar index is going higher, is that a breaking correlation?

And the answer is yes, it's a breaking correlation, but it doesn't mean that

the markets are doing their own thing.

And therefore four X is broken.

It's this showing you relative.

Strength is seen in that.

I'll show you a dollar.

So you don't want to be selling Australian dollars.

What I'm saying you don't ever want to sell those types of pairs.

Just like we don't want to sell all the CAD.

I'm sorry, not Aldi, cat, um, dollar cat.

When we were looking at dollar CAD, even though we've had, um, I said

that backwards, we don't want to be buying, let's say it like that.

We don't want to be buying Aussie.

Good grief.

I'm tongue tied.

Then the relative strength that would be expected in this dollar based

payer against the Canadian dollar, your, uh, your chart on a daily

sheet showing the same thing here.

There's no.

Uptrend or movement higher in sympathy with the dollar index

theme in your dollar CAD pair.

Because of that, we do not want to be buyers of this pair when the dollar is

bullish, but we would be more inclined to sell this pair at times when the dollar

is bearish, because it's already showing a willingness to want to go lower and a

lack of participation on upside movement.

I mean, this pair should be screaming higher because of the dollar rally.

And if we look at the, uh, we out here,

here's the a dollar versus the yen.

Nice rally it's, it's moving up a great deal.

It's nice.

But if you look at the pair of stylish, swissy, it's showing

strength as well, but the dollar.

With the Canadian dollar is not showing it.

So just because we trade down here at an area where it could be viewed

as, and I don't like it, cause it's got a lot of Wix, but say it didn't

have all these wigs and we just have one nice clean down candle.

If it would have traded down to that level here and hit it.

I still wouldn't be bullish about that because of the premise that this dollar

based currency coupled with the Canadian dollar is already showing weakness.

And you don't want to buy weakness.

You want to buy strength.

You want to buy relative strength.

So if you look at every time that the dollar rallied and created down candles

and compare that, and this is your homework for today, compare that with

the dollar yen, the dollar swissy and couple that idea with the dollar cat.

And you'll see that there's lethargic price action in this pair when it

should be buying and their strong buys in the dollar yen and dollar

swissy when the dollar has created buying opportunities on its own basis.

Okay.

So when we look at the, uh, um, all the payer and the New Zealand payer, these

may be mindful that using the Aussie New Zealand pare as an analysis tool,

like we use europium, that will help you decide what you should be doing.

Especially if you're going to be doing anything like a

short term or a swing trade.

It's not.

So in my opinion, it's not so sensitive on an intraday basis.

It can happen sometimes, but it's usually too short of a timeframe.

Uh, they usually use hard timeframe movements to manipulate that pair.

So just use that also as a kale, because you're using pairs that are traded in

Asian session and because the Asian session can be rather choppy in its nature

is consolidation because it's setting the initial high and low of the day.

So be mindful that you'll get a lot of noise.

If you're looking at like that on a 15 minute basis, the Aussie New

Zealand payer for analysis concept.

Just be aware that it can be very noisy and you can be tripped up

and looking at that low timeframe.

But when you start looking at like a daily chart, it's usually pretty solid.

They'll give you a lot more understanding, but, um, the issue with the dollar cat.

Yes, Mike, it's all based on, uh, Canadian strength relative to the oil market.

And that's it, man.

Um, let's take a look at gold real quick and closing gold so

far is holding at, uh, 1217 level.

So we'll see if it is able to maintain that it can dip below that and still

be relatively okay with, uh, like I can trade down into this down candles open

now is they can go to 12, 10 is spot.

It can spike to 12, 10 and be okay if we lose 1200, that's not good.

We'll probably make an, a run for liquidity below these candles in here.

So the liquidity.

Sell-side liquidity trusting below here at, uh, 1190, we sell side is

by stops and liquidity is at 1250.

Nothing changed there.

Um,

I don't know what you mean by that, Tanner.

Um, what slide are you talking about?

Silver.

We already talked about it's holding its or block as well.

Sell-side liquidity.

Um, I don't like it.

So close here.

I mean, it's a, short-term low.

I think if it's going to go down for any stops and really make a run for them,

it would be at the 1750 to 1740 level.

All right.

So, um, I do not look at any divergence with gold and silver, but I did look at

the virgins for gold against the dollar.

You'll actually hear me talk about that in this week's teachings.

Um,

nothing yet for the call option idea for silver.

Now,

Kenny, I got your questions on Twitter.

I will be going through them.

This.

So if you haven't, if you got questions, let's go through.

Um, but I'm on Twitter and send me a link and then I'll get to them tonight.

Uh, Dow Dow.

That's good.

Let's go over to the dowel real quick.

Hang on one second.

Let me toggle the screen to the explore.

Uh, the last time I updated you on the stock and deceased,

I said that we were down here.

We said we're probably going to rally.

Um, and probably was like on your chart.

Like it does mind.

It's rally a little bit.

The, uh, I like the idea that it's aggressively doing that to me.

I'm hoping this is capitulation and capitulation.

Capitulation is, uh, that last little bit of, um, just everything's great.

You know, this is perfect.

Everything's going to go higher and yeah, we call the higher, big deal.

I am not chasing this.

I don't believe in this rally.

I have no faith in this.

Um, I just think this is all more lipstick on it.

Now, again, I said that we could probably go, you know, another

thousand points above 20,000 earlier in like the fall last year.

I said, if we get to 20,000, that's a love we got to watch, but it can

go to 21,000, but I'm more inclined to wait for the breakdown in here.

I want to capture the mood going lower.

I do not see this personally.

I don't see it as a multi-year low where it's going to just keep on going on.

I don't think we have that in the cards is way too many things that can go wrong.

Um, really just pay attention to what's going on in our government right now.

And there's a lot of dysfunction and it's going to cause a

lot of people to freak out.

As soon as we get one big down day, it's going to be a massive Exodus from

equities and it's going to be so quick.

And so sudden you're not going to get, but once.

And that's why I'm only focusing on the breakdown.

If you're, if you're S and P trader or a dowel Jones trader, you know?

Yeah.

You're riding, as we told you was going to go higher, but

don't fall in love with this.

Do not fall in love with it because it's going to, it's going to turn

around and blame it in the rear end.

There's a lot of issues with, uh, you know, um, well, you know, I don't think

this has nothing to do with Donald Trump.

You know, they call it the Trump rally, whatever, to me, I think

that this was going to happen.

Whether Hillary would've got in there or Bernie would've got in there, uh,

all this stuff is being beautifully outlined in an orchestrated with

the storyline or backdrop with.

Donald Trump caused all this, you know, when it comes to, uh, to,

to, uh, forefront of everybody's understanding that China's dumped all

of our treasuries and that, uh, the middle east is getting ready to dump

all their, uh, their holdings as well.

Um, they have to sell it when it's rallying.

So anybody that's looking at our economy with questionable, uh, viewpoints, this

is the time they're going to be baling.

They don't sell it when it's dropping.

That's when the public sells, they sell it when it's rallying.

So if they're really pushing it higher, okay.

And if they're all saying, look, you know, interest rates are

going to hike up the fall market doesn't want higher interest rates.

It doesn't work well in high interest rates.

It will always say no way.

I don't like that and go down.

So for them to frame the idea, oh yeah, interest rates are, we're

going to be really raising it.

And in the say, okay, that's the reason why the market's rallying

that doesn't make any sense.

It's stupid.

That doesn't, that's not how it works.

Higher interest rates.

That's not what they would want because stocks are going to be affected by that.

And we talked about this already in regards to interest

rates in the bond market.

So given that let's take a little field trip over to the bond market

already, you should be like, what the heck?

All right.

So here you go, you got the bond market and I'm telling you,

I cannot stress this enough.

The more they pushed us up, the harder this thing's going to fall in

terms of the equity market, it's this unbelievably bad news for stocks.

You want to be seeing the bond market, you know, When stocks are rallying, this

thing keeps selling off, selling off.

Now we're selling off again.

Why, why would anybody want to be buying stocks in this condition?

They get wrapped up in the storyline.

Everyone that's buying stocks right now.

They're all chasing headlines.

They're chasing MarketWatch.

They're chasing, you know, Motley, fool, mad money, whatever fast

money where CNBC's talking about.

If that's the stock to buy, that's it, they're pouring money into the

leadership is only on a few stocks.

If you look at really what's going on in the major averages,

it's only a handful of stocks.

That's really driving the market higher so that when you can see these averages going

up like this, there's a lot of stocks.

That's not making higher highs.

They're not doing it.

So if we're seeing that and the backdrop is this fundamentally

interest rates are going higher.

Bonds are saying, I'm not a part of this.

Think about it.

Look at what's going on in the bond market right here.

That's not bullish for stocks now because we talked about this

in the macro content in January.

Yes.

It can take six to 12 months to come to fruition, but the Piper will be paid.

You're going to be, you're going to deal with a great deal

of retracement and go lower.

Now, here's the, here's the, uh, the real rub in this worst case scenario.

Then I say that in sense that we have to wait for the sell-off.

It could, it could go all the way till July.

If this scenario continues like this bond keeps selling off and the stock

market keeps finding ways to go higher and they keep pricing it up.

We already know seasonally that July 1st weekend July makes the high the market.

Right.

So if we have a seasonal tendency for July, the creed, a high in the

equity market, we could reasonably expect this thing to consolidate

or trade higher up into that point.

Then we'd have what an overlapping or convergence of the seasonal

tendency to create a high.

The market will be probably pushed all the way up and to that point.

And who knows what the high will be.

I'm not trying to pick the high notice.

I did not say any levels.

I'm not calling levels when I'm bullish.

I always give you levels.

I'm reaching for, I don't have any levels to reach for.

I'm more focused on the technicals when they start breaking down,

because if a technicals breakdown that is when technicals are in

alignment with the fundamental basis that this thing is going down, it's

going down really hard and quickly.

And if you are in front of it, or if you're in there, you're

going to get this aerated.

And it's just, it's it's, it's going to be.

And it sounds like chicken loyal, but I'm telling you, you mark my words

that you're, you're seeing the DNA.

Okay.

The anatomy, the, the, the, the, the forensics.

Okay.

We're able to see it before it happens, you know, after, after a

murder, you know, detectives come in and say, oh, here, these are

the evidences of why it took place.

And here's the blood splatter and all that business.

We're seeing all of this.

Okay.

We're seeing O'Jays globe before he puts it on, put it, put it that way.

We know what's going to happen.

It's going to happen.

And the framework is the fundamental basis of what's being seen in the bond market.

So I don't call upside objectives on stocks.

I don't look for any kind of, uh, objectives to tell you that

I think it's going to go up here because we're in historical levels.

I don't know how far they're going to drive this thing up.

And I think they have a lot of money built into it, and they want to knock.

Out.

And they're not going to give people a chance to let's get

shortened ride the bear market.

It doesn't work like that when they come down aggressively, they do it quick.

It's an elevator ride, several thousands of pips or points.

Okay.

Small little consolidation.

They give you a false hope bounce, and then they take

the floor out from underneath.

Again, we probably won't get a two-state two-stage on this one.

It would probably be so dramatic that it's going to be over.

I mean, look, we had a flash crash if you want to call it

a couple of years ago in may.

You know, and to me, I think personally, that was a big telltale sign that a

lot of foreign investors were unloading and they knew by doing that, it

causes too much of a telltale sign.

So as the markets are rallying, they're done.

And as it rallies hard, aggressive like this, I think

they're aggressively selling.

I mean, it's just, it's, it's smart money.

That's how we operate, you know, and we have a really strong market.

That's rallying, the public sees that as strength, we know this market's

been going higher, so therefore that's where the smart money distributes.

So when we see this rally up in, uh, equities, in a dowel surging up

like that, I don't see that as yay.

Breakout the pom-poms and ticker-tape parade.

I see this is about to die where we're near the end.

So anyway, I can go on and on and on.

Okay.

But I would really, really like to see it hold off until middle of the

summer in July, because that would give us everything in alignment.

The seasonal tendencies for one Winmar when the markets should come down

seasonally and then man alive, if we can get that little bit of a bounce in August

going into September, and then it just drops out like crazy going into the fall.

That would be amazing.

That's what I'm hoping for.

If I could wish I want to star and get that, that that's what I'm looking for.

That's what I'm hoping to see happen, but don't fall in love with the stocks

because it's going to be a bad, it's going to be a, it's not a love story.

Let's put it that way.

It's a hard flick and we're just now getting to the plot.

Yeah.

Wish on a star.

It's an expression.

All right.

So that's the business.

All right.

So now going forward folks, I asked you all to get a, my FX

book linked up to a demo account.

Um, I'm going to put, edit marker here by showing of hands.

Okay.

By showing them number one.

How many of you have done.

Good.

Very good.

Um, I can't yeah, edge walk.

That was the name of the thing I was trying to think of the

last time we did a live session.

I was thinking you could use something other than in my

effects book, uh, edge walk.

I've never used one.

So I don't know.

I have no experience with it.

So, but I get a lot of feedback saying, it's, it's a great product.

So you decide what you want to do with it.

But, uh, you want to have something that's going to track apart from

you, just keeping a record on your, your trading statements on your demo.

You want to be very systematic about how you keep track of your things.

Okay.

Because now we're going to start going into set ups and we're going to going

into, um, um, tracking your consistency, your level of draw down, uh, how

much of a consistent back-to-back.

Exposure.

Do you have to losses?

How many consecutive wins are you going to have?

We're in that stage now in, in this mentorship where we actually start taking

setups, and I want you to feel what it's like to go through that process.

And when there's a loss, how much of an impact that's going to have on you

psychologically and how this is going to help you mitigate those emotional

responses, because it's going to happen.

We're going to get in here and we're going to take trades and they're going to fail.

Not because I want you to feel a feeling trade, but to just it's going to happen.

So, but I want you to not measure it on a one by one basis.

I want you to measure over the scale of an entire month, how many sales sweets.

How many opportunities come fruition, how much draw down

these opportunities present you.

Even when you get an exit that's profitable, how much of a down

did you have to sit through?

How much time was it in draw down.

Okay.

So now we have a lot of application that we have to start applying because after

this week's lessons, we're in it now.

I mean, we you'll have the actual mechanics to go in to

actually look for swing trades.

So we will have everything going forward.

We have to have a look for the setups, using everything we've learned in January

and everything we've learned so far in February and coupling that with September,

October, November, and December content.

So we have a whole lot of framework at the end of this month.

And then we have no excuse not to be going through and finding

setups and you taking part in it.

If you do not participate, you're not going to learn.

Okay.

So if you do not participate, you will not get what you're paying.

If you do not participate by tracking your statistics, either

by, uh, my effects book account that you do not have to make private.

I'm sorry, you don't have to make it public with everyone, but you

do need to have it because that way you're going to be able to have proof.

You'll have documentation of what you're learning works.

So that way, if you feel inclined to share it with people in our

forum, you're welcome to do so.

I actually encourage that and I actually encourage it when we

actually do have a series of losses.

Cause it's going to happen when we have a loss.

I want you to share those, say, okay, this is what I absorbed.

And I know this doesn't feel good right now, but I'm trusting that the

equity curve will turn around and I'll be at a higher high inequity another

week or two or three weeks from now.

That's how you get through this.

So just understand that we're going into the interactive

portion of this mentorship.

So a lot of the theory has been put behind us at the end of this week.

On Friday night, you'll have a great deal of the content for

swing trading in the last couple of sessions or teachings this month.

We'll just really frame out the whole swing trading model for you.

And then you'll have your real first trading model for, from

the, uh, from the mentorship.

And then we work into short-term trading and then we go into lower timeframe

stuff, but you will know how to trade by the end of this month because I'm

going to pull everything you've already been exposed to, into one package.

And then that way you'll know what you're looking for.

Okay.

So that's it.

That's the business for today.

I'm going to escape and go grab some breakfast and I will be back later on this

afternoon with another, uh, short recap.

And I'll give you some homework assignments for.

For this week as well, um, share their, your two trade setups that

you've supposedly should have been looking for for swing trades.

And then, uh, but there was in the forum.

The other people see that interact with that.

And it's not a grading thing.

It's just keep you guys all inspired and keep your gears turning don't.

Don't relate.

Don't wait for me to put another video up, always be working, studying.

I appreciate it.

Thank you very much for your time.

And I will catch up with you later on this afternoon until

then have yourself pleasant day.