All language subtitles for The.Trick.2021.WEBRip.x264-ION10

LAUGHTER

Wait. There we go.

WOMAN LAUGHS

Nellie, careful there.

Sorry, Grandad.

Ready? That's ready.

OK. Ready, Nellie?

Here I come!

Aa-a-ah! Aa-a-ah!

Run!

Aargh! Aargh!

I can't believe you're
still doing that.

Whee!

I'd like to welcome you to this
international

conference for climate change, 2009.

It is my great pleasure to
welcome our keynote speaker,

who has been a pioneer in climate
science for the last 30 years,

an expert in his field,

world-renowned,

and who will address us on his work
on the global instrumental

temperature record, often referred
to as a hockey stick graph,

which has been
so important in helping us

to understand the cause of change
during the last 1,000 years.

We are honoured to welcome
Prof Philip Jones.

Go on, then.

APPLAUSE

Thank you.

Thank you very much.

PLUCKED VIOLIN MUSIC

I'll call you to let you know
when I'm back.

You're a star, Dad, thanks.

Where the hell are you?
The train leaves in two minutes.

Shit.

Sorry.
I had to sort out the kids. Right...

Let's see what level of a shit
storm we've got here.

The University of East Anglia's
Climategate email controversy.

Climategate. Climategate.

The Climategate scandal.

Scientists are using words like
"trick".

Climategate they're calling it,

a new scandal over global warming
and it's burning up the Internet.

Have the
books been cooked on climate change?

At worst it's junk science

and it is a part of a massive,
international, scientific fraud.

It's a communications consultancy.

Crisis management.

Neil Wallis,
ex-editor of a Sunday tabloid

and his colleague Sam Bowen.

Sam's background is more corporate
public relations.

Can we trust them?

I think we have to.

We're running out of time.

They're accusing him of fraud, Ruth.

How is Phil?

You haven't seen a select
committee hearing?

No.

It's no walk in the park.

Eight people right
there in front of you

and trying to put you on a skewer.

Right.

It's the House of Commons,
the government.

An all-out vindication
and this Professor Philip Jones

and the rest of them
have got half a chance.

The slightest whiff of a rap across
the knuckles and they're screwed.

So we've got one shot at it?

To clear their names?

And three weeks to do it.

Skulduggery,
scientific espionage and black
propaganda.

Have scientists really been
manipulating the data?

They claim to be victims of a crime,
right? They are.

From the off everyone is all over
their arses like they're
the criminals.

Even the tree huggers,
the environment correspondents.

We need institutions independent
of them declaring their innocence.

I suppose they don't know, do they?

What?

If they are innocent or if Jones did
rig the data

to exaggerate the increase
in temperatures?

Exactly,

everyone is terrified
they're guilty as charged.

Maybe they're right to be.

..tonight faces forensic
examination.

The temperature graphs at the heart
of concern of about climate change

will now be picked
over by experts.

Edward Acton, Vice-Chancellor.

Neil Wallis. Sam Bowen.

Pleased to meet you. This is my
co-Vice-Chancellor, Trevor Davies.

Trevor. Former director
of the Climatic Research Unit,

also known as CRU.

Three months ago.

When you were hacked?

No.

The hacking itself was some
months before.

We only became aware of it
when the hacker uploaded the file.

What was he called again?
Realclimate.org.

The university learned about it
the following day.

And you, Phil.

Is that when you found out?

I...

Yes, that's when we found out too.

And what was your response once you
knew there'd been a hack?

We informed the police
and told them

there had been an IT system
breach. A data theft.

I think
that's the phrase that was used.

Goodnight.

Goodnight.

Thank you, Stella.

You're very welcome.

These are the press office documents

and I've had made this for you -
it's the broadcast coverage.

Good.

We'll take a look at that tonight.

Isn't it rather late?

The House of Commons hearing,
it's in three weeks, right?

Yes.

The clock is ticking, Edward, so
yeah, we'll be working tonight.

I see, good.

Good.

Jesus, they weren't joking.

He's broken.

Yep.

Do you think he...?

He did it?

You'd expect him to be a bit more
pissed off, wouldn't you?

If he was innocent.

Are you sure I'm the right person
for this?

I do corporate.

Branding.

Which means you're not digital.

Look, whatever.

We're here now, aren't we?

Getting paid to get this lot
out of a hole,

guilty or not.

SEAT BELT CLICKS

CAR ENGINE STARTS

OK, thanks for coming, everyone.

Thank you.

Er, let's start with the headlines.

Two days ago the Safer
Neighbourhoods team logged

a data theft from a backup
server

at the University's Climatic
Research Unit, known as crew.

Safer Neighbourhoods flagged
the call to Special Branch

and last night Gold Command,
on my recommendation,

initiated Operation Cabin
as a major investigation.

The contents of the file
appears to be

around 1,000 emails

and other documents written over a
ten-year period by staff at CRU,

mostly by its current director,
Professor Philip Jones,

world-renowned climate
scientist.

Gareth here is from Kinetic,

a defence contractor
specialising in cyber security.

His team will lead on the digital
investigation,

reporting directly to me as senior
investigating officer.

The other two lines of inquiry,

physical breach of CRU or an
internal leak,

will be overseen by Gold group.

This is a Category A investigation,

so we can hopefully expect some
additional support

from national
counterterrorism Scotland Yard.

Yes.

The Cat A status,

sorry, boss, but who's been
murdered?

No-one, DS Suppiah.

So the only crime that we're
invest...

The breach of the
Computer Misuse Act, section one,

and, depending what we turn up,
maybe section two.

Regardless, this is still
a Cat A investigation,

and I would appreciate it
if it were treated as such.

Right, if there aren't any more
questions, you know the drill.

Any pissed-off employees, office
politics, financial vulnerability...

..who had access,
what was the IT set-up,

any hint of a motivation,
I want to hear about it.

Thank you.

DS Suppiah, a word.

I appreciate this might just be
a staff member with an axe to

grind, or some hacker winning
a pissing contest,

but if it isn't, look at
the timing, join the dots.

Three weeks before COP15,
the UN Climate Conference.

Think about it, if this
is someone trying to influence

the global response to
climate change,

well, then, I'd say maybe
Cat A isn't high enough.

CAMERA CLICKS

The stolen emails are mostly
conversations between colleagues,

climate scientists,
here and in the US.

And these conversations,
they've been taken wholesale?

No, because whoever
compiled this file,

they knew what
they were looking for.

These emails had been selected,

probably using a word
search for certain phrases.

The first place a link is
posted along with this comment here,

"a miracle has happened",
is climateaudit.org.

It's a climate sceptic blog run
by this man, Steve McIntyre.

He's receiving the link,
he's not...? He's not sending it?

Yeah,
but he's got history with Jones.

Erm, McIntyre is a Canadian
ex-mining consultant turned...

..self-appointed climate
science fact checker.

If you look at his blog posts

and the comment streams
of his website, and the emails,

it reveals that there is an
established relationship with Jones.

And it seems as far back as 2002,
he's been asking Jones for his data.

Which Jones gave him?

Yeah. Initially.

But then, McIntyre started using it
to criticise Jones,

to undermine his career,
Jones backed off.

McIntyre, well, he got frustrated.

Earlier this year, he persuaded
his entire database to send

freedom of information requests to
CRU, asking for their raw data.

Which they did. Yeah.

Jones was flooded,
and I mean flooded, with requests.

60 in one week, look.
It's a bloody tsunami.

Annoying, but not illegal.

Yes, but that's where it gets
interesting.

Our initial analysis of the hard
drives and servers suggests

that the unit was hacked several
times between that same time period.

Are you saying there was more than
one breach? Not only that.

McIntyre's requests were formally
refused by the university.

And four days later, a file
of stolen materials goes live.

I have not falsified any data!

Collusion?

They can't argue with the facts.
That's what they do all the time!

Do you really think this is them?

Well, of course it's them!

I'm sorry.

I haven't done anything wrong, Ruth.

Are you suggesting that
McIntyre was responsible? No.

It was a relatively
sophisticated attack,

he wouldn't have the capability.
But there was a coordination.

More likely someone else
with a vested

interest in tracking his disputes
with CRU.

Yeah, you should also speak to
this guy. This is Steve Mosher.

He's an established lukewarmer.

He doesn't believe that
climate change

is as serious as everyone's
making out.

When the emails came out,
he was in charge of finding

the extracts before they were
taken down.

"I've just completed Mike's nature
trick..."

"..to hide the decline."

"Cheers, Phil."

And these are the
extracts that are penetrating now?

Yeah. It's a
very effective selection.

Mosher knew exactly what
he was doing.

Have your comms team got Phil's
comment on why

he used the word trick?

Already on the website, along with
an acknowledgement of the hack.

Look, I think we should do more -
defend the science.

We'd be inviting an attack.

I'm telling you,
there's an established history.

It's a bunch of bloggers, Trevor.

Just let them burn the story
out amongst themselves.

There was a piece in the Guardian,
and surely, it's quite...

Our defence would only raise more
questions, give the story oxygen.

We don't want the science
questioned, either. Look...

..if we can get through the weekend
without The Today Programme

calling us, I really think
we'll be fine, OK?

25 to eight.

Those who are on the sceptic side
have seized on these emails.

One of those sceptics is
Lord Lawson, the former Chancellor,

whose book, An Appeal To Reason...

On the face of it, it looks as
if the raw data were being

manipulated in order to prove what
they wanted to prove,

that they were refusing to allow
other scientists outside

access to the raw data, that they

were talking about destroying
various files in order to prevent

data being revealed through
the Freedom of Information Act.

Now, these are very,
very serious things.

It may be that there is an innocent
explanation for all this,

but what is absolutely clear,

because this is the basis on which
policy decisions are being made,

to some extent, by the government,

and by governments around the world,
it has also tarnished very

badly the international
reputation of British science.

They'll need...

It's just, we really need some
clarity, especially on why

some of the temperature data
can't be released to the public.

Shell.

"Dear Phil Jones -
you should kill yourself.

"You lying prick, arsehole.

"And if you don't, I'll be more than
happy to do it for you.

"And your family."
Oh, God. That's terrible.

We'll inform the police.

Look, Ruth, if he does come round
a bit, would you mind...

He's the only one who knows
the truth about the emails,

the temperature...
I know, believe me, I know.

Even his voice has changed, Trevor.

Like it's stuck in his throat.

Are you and Grandad coming
to my school play, Granny?

Of course, sweetheart.

Did...
It might just be Granny this time.

OK. OK!

Bye. Bye.

Bye, Granny, see you soon. Bye!

RUTH SOBS

These are the most damaging
extracts.

Can you delete any emails
you may have had with Keith?

Keith will do likewise.

"We're choosing the periods
to show warming.

"I've just completed Mike's
nature trick...

"..to hide the decline."

The press inquiries haven't stopped
all morning, it's unprecedented.

Like nothing anyone's seen before.
And from the US now to...

What is it they want,
specifically? Phil.

The extracts are mostly
from his emails.

And he's the director of CRU.

They want to know why all of CRU's
data isn't available as well.

But in terms of people, Phil.
No-one else.

I'm afraid that's not going
to be possible.

Well, surely you don't stand by his
comments on the website? Yeah.

Why isn't Phil available?

It would be the clearest way to
set things straight. I agree.

I went round there this morning
after the Lawson interview.

The man's struggling.

30 years ago, do you remember,

you had that offer of work
in California?

And we came here to talk about it,
about the kids moving school.

What it would all mean.

And you got so excited.

Not about going, but about staying.

About what that meant.

Do you remember?

Philip, if I can remember,
I know you do.

"It's going to be important,"
that's what you said.

Politicians were just starting to
talk about global warming,

and you said that when
they finally came to act on it,

they'd needed data they could trust.

They'd need evidence,
and that you, CRU, would be

able to give it to them.

Well, that time is now, Philip.

And you were right.

They do need your evidence.

Which is why we can't let these
bastards destroy all you've done.

It's too important.

You're too important.

"I've found what I can do, Ruth."

That's what you said.

"And the place I can do it."

God,
and I so wanted to go to California!

Did you? Yeah! RUTH LAUGHS

You're going to have to speak up,
Philip.

We'll issue a press statement with
Phil's comment from the website.

And let's see if he'll do a press
Association interview, at least.

Just print, no TV.

Let's announce an independent
inquiry into the allegations

and into the actions of our staff.

If there has been malpractice,

we must show we're
keen as mustard to investigate.

And we need support, too.

Public support.

Thanks, Chris. Any help in releasing
the data is hugely appreciated.

We were wondering if your department
could give a statement to...

I'll see what I can do. We really
need help on this one, Chris.

Trevor, sorry, look, I've got to go.

Sir David, have you
seen the CRU fallout?

Christ, haven't I?

What the bloody
hell were they thinking about?

I mean, I wouldn't accept such loose
practices from my students.

Well, siege mentality.
I mean, the deniers have had him

in their sights for as long
as I can remember. That is...

..precisely when
you have to be careful,

when you think you're in a battle.

I mean, not to put
the data in the public domain.

Well, to be fair, Sir David, it
isn't theirs to give.

What do you mean?

Well, CRU built its models on data
from meteorological services.

And sometimes, that data
comes with nondisclosure agreements.

Sir David King, School of Enterprise
and the Environment,

Oxford University.

Thanks very much.

I've been on the
phone all morning to the Met Office,

putting pressure on them to give
clearance to release all the data.

And? Not yet.

Any news about the hack?

Nothing I've heard. Any thoughts?

Well, take your pick.

Could be the Russians, the Saudis,
the oil companies,

anybody who's got money in the game.
But you know, it's clever,

going after the data
behind the modelling.

I don't understand why everyone

expects science models to be
perfect.

I mean, no-one ever goes after
economic models, do they?

No, that's because nobody's
trying to undermine the economics.

LIFT BELL PINGS

Do you really think it will affect
the COP in Copenhagen?

Well, it might
scare the horses a bit,

but no, this COP is
dead in the water anyway.

You really think so? Come on, Chris.

I mean, the USA are not going to
sign up to their commitment

to carbon reductions
unless it's voluntary, and

if they won't sign, then neither
will the Chinese or the Russians.

Look, do what you can about getting
the Met to release that data.

It could douse the flames.

Now, the head of a British climate
research institute has

stepped aside after leaked emails
were said to suggest that the

case for global warming had
been exaggerated.

Phil Jones, at the University
of East Anglia, will relinquish

his duties while an
independent review is carried out.

Our environment correspondent,
David Shukman...

There are more stolen emails. No,
I... I'm saying there's a lot more.

Almost 200,000 in total.
Shit! 200...?

So, the really odd thing, that
they left the cache on the server.

Which is almost like they, well...

I guess it's almost like they wanted
us to know. What are you saying?

Well, it means that CRU wasn't

the only climate unit
that was attacked.

There were more hacks? Attempts.

CRU was the only
successful breach.

What were the other attempts?

OK, so, persons unknown posing
as network technicians tried to

gain access to climate science
offices at the University

of Victoria, British Columbia.

And there were attempts to access
the servers at the Canadian

Centre for Climatology and
Analysis, the National Center

of Atmospheric Research in
Colorado,

and an attempted unauthorised entry

to the computer systems at the
State Department Climate Bureau.

And when, when was all this?
This is all in the last 12 months.

You do know he's the victim?

It's his emails that were stolen.

It's him that's being dragged
through the papers.

Why aren't you going after
who did this?

I realise this must be upsetting.
No-one's getting the truth.

Just what they read, what they hear.

Where are you going? Just
down to the station. We just... Why?

We need to print the statement
and have it signed immediately.

Well, use our bloody printer!
Ruth, it's fine.

We'll be 30 minutes, I promise.

This hockey stick graph,
the one that you

mention in the interview, why is it
so important exactly?

Well, it's...

It's a reconstruction
of global temperature, a...

..a window into the past,
I suppose, back 1,000 years.

All these are decades here.

That is the handle of the stick.

And here, in the 19th century,
when industrialisation takes off,

erm, up until now, that's the...

..erm, that's the blade, when
temperatures increase dramatically.

This is your work?
Well, I contributed.

CRU was the first unit
to be dedicated to the

subject of climate change.

We devoted more time than
anyone else to...

..to, erm...gather
the temperature data.

It's not just from across the world,
but from across time.

Wow.

From before we had thermometer
readings, erm...

..historical, erm, records,
ships' logs.

And then even further back, er,
proxy data, such as tree rings

and ice cores. I saw the tree
rings on the walls of your office.

They're beautiful.

Well, we... Erm...

..all of that, the proxy and
historical data goes into the graph.

That's... It, erm...

..helps make the past...

..readable.

Best get you home, yeah.

Thank you.

Who's doing this, Trevor? Who knows?

Plenty of vested interests
would like Copenhagen to fail.

I know why they're doing it to us,
though.

The hockey stick graph.
Yes...?

The one showing the rise in global
temperatures?

Yeah, CRU's work has been
keystone to that graph.

I mean, it was meant to be
the final word in the debate.

The science behind it is complex,

though the way it conveys it is
simple, it cuts through the noise.

That's what the sceptics don't like.

Ever since it was published,
they've known, if they're to keep

the debate going, they have to cast
doubt on the hockey stick.

Crafty buggers.

Sorry. That was a long one.

Must have done
over 20 interviews now.

It's like speaking into a storm.

No-one can hear us.

Or wants to.

We're being drowned
out by a sigh of relief.

Relief?

Well, imagine if you woke up
tomorrow to be told you don't

have to worry about climate change.

Millions of dollars have
gone into the denial campaigns.

And most of it to achieve
exactly this,

to make the science seem uncertain.

It's been going on for years,

ever since we first started
talking about actually doing

something about global warming.
Which was when, exactly?

Oh, late '80s. So those campaigns...

..essentially, they bought
themselves time with those millions.

They've had decades to prepare
a receptive environment.

Whoever hacked into us...

All they had to do was release those
emails in the right places

and sit back and watch.

They've had 20 years to
prepare for this. We've had days.

We need crisis management advice.

It's a straight choice.
Duck it or fight it.

But how do we fight it if the
world wants Phil and the data

and we can't provide either.

OK, well, if Phil can't do
the interviews, then you have to.

What about the independent inquiry?

No-one gets hacked for the sake
of it. There's always intent.

The UN Climate Conference, the COP,
it opens next week, right?

Yes. So, it's a strategy.

Someone's decided to take
positive action to...

We don't actually know if that's
the case. Nothing's a coincidence.

Sow doubt where there's certainty,

apply a minor inconsistency to
the entire evidence, discredit

a group of people, muddy the debate,
all to achieve policy outcry.

It's hardly new.

Straight out of the tobacco
companies' playbook

when they were stalling for time
on cigarettes and cancer. Mm.

Other interest groups have used
the same strategies around

pesticides, the ozone hole,
acid rain.

It's not like we haven't seen
these tactics before. No.

Never with the internet. The blocks.

Yeah, that IS new. I'll admit
there's no playbook for that.

Look...

This isn't going to be easy.

For a start, you're a...white,
middle-aged, posh man. Hm.

It's going to be hard for you to go
on TV and come across as likeable.

Yes...

Yes, I see.

It's your only choice.

Do nothing now...

..that's as good as being guilty.

Now, it's hard to believe that some
emails written on a university

campus in Norwich could be
quite so damaging.

Today, Saudi Arabia's chief climate
change negotiator, no less,

said the leaked emails
from scientists at the Climate

Research Unit at the University
of East Anglia will have a huge

impact on next week's Copenhagen
summit, even as it's...

You shouldn't be watching that.
Why not? It's what I've done.

That's not true.

They've finally found a way
to get me, Ruth.

And they'll, well...

..pull at this thread
until it all unravels!

They've won, Ruth. No. They haven't!

They know the truth is out
there now.

So all they can do is try to
find ways of delaying how soon it

reaches everyone.

That's not the actions of people
who've won. Philip,

that's the desperation of people
who've lost.

You're forgetting something.

What?

Not everyone wants the truth
to reach them.

So, what do you think?
I think they're screwed.

The blogs I get and the American
right wing networks,

but the mainstream
media following their lead...

The BBC, for Christ's sake!

Which is why we need to get him
out there. Phil?

We need to put a human face on this,
before the House of Commons hearing.

Get the public back on our side.
He could barely talk.

Which is why it has to be print.

No TV.

You're serious?
We'll have to coach him.

Sunday Times, front page.
Do you think they'll take it?

They'll love it!

It's what they've been baying for,
isn't it?

The man at the heart of it.

Edward tried his best,
but no-one wanted to know.

So we throw them to the lions.

With a couple of lion
tamers in the room.

But yeah, if it means we're the
ones feeding them for a bit.

That's exactly what we do.

No time for anything else.

Not with that House of Commons
committee breathing down our necks.

We'll coach him here. Today.

Are you sure this is the right...?
I'm positive.

Unless you want to cut him loose.
Out of the question.

Well, I had to check.

Because if it's the reputation
of the university you're trying

to save... It isn't.

It isn't? Well, yes, it is,
but that's no longer the priority.

This is about more than
the university now.

Much more. The science?

The truth.
Right. That's what's at stake here.

And who gets to tell the truth,

or not,

about something that affects every
living thing on the planet.

Mea culpa. That's what you open
with, before anything else.

I'll brief the journalists to
ask about the data stuff first,

the Freedom of Information request.
When he does, you put your hands up.

Admit you got it wrong... But those
requests, they weren't genuine.

Yes, we know...
The data was already...

But admitting that you got
frustrated,

you could have handled it better,
that's very relatable. Yeah.

Getting pissed off with a bunch
of timewasters who want to prove

you wrong, there's no shame in that.
No data was destroyed.

And that's exactly what you'll say,

after you've acknowledged what you
could have done better.

You say it then and people will
listen. It'll sound true.

It is true.

But I need to believe you
when you say it is.

That's all that matters.

Right, so, we take a little
bit of this and pop it in here.

And then, if you take your finger
and poke a nice hole in there.

That's it. And then,
what do you think you do?

Put an acorn in? Yes. Just the one.

There. Maybe a little bit more.

So, a trick is just a clever
way of doing something.

In statistical modelling, yes,
or in maths, a short cut.

It still sounds suspect.
A trick of the trade? A technique?

If you like,
a solution to a problem.

But nothing more? No. Good.

But then,
we get to hide the decline.

Sent everyone through the roof,
this one, hasn't it?

Sarah Palin, the US networks,
the papers.

What's your defence?

Because it had better be
a bloody good one.

In as few words as possible,
simple and short.

And in a way I'll believe it.

It's about tree rings.

What?

Well, the decline.

It isn't about temperatures.

Go on.

To predict the future, we've got
to understand the past.

Hubert Lamb's... I'm not interested.
Try again.

Go on, Phil.

Temperature records consist of two
kinds of measurements.

From around the mid 19th century, we
have actual instrument recordings...

Try it as a question.

Um...

How do we obtain
measurements from further back,

from before we have instrument
recordings? Good! I have no idea.

Educate me. How do we? We use, um,
proxy data... Sorry, Phil.

How else might you explain "proxy"?
What is it? Um...

The...

The natural world has a memory.

It can preserve the physical
characteristics of the past.

Past temperatures? Er, yes.
Um, and weather events.

What kind of characteristics?

Well, concentrations of oxygen
isotopes in ice.

Or the composition
and annual banding in corals.

Or the... The width and the density
of annual tree ring growth.

Tree rings?

Yes, they're wider in a season
of good growth, when it's warmer,

and narrower in a season of
restricted growth, when it's colder.

So, you add this stuff,
natural characteristics, to the

instrument measurements
and you get a record of temperatures

stretching back in time
before thermometers?

It isn't quite that simple.
Put simply, though, is Neil right?

Well, yes.

So, what's being hidden,
then, in the paper,

you were discussing in that email?

I was writing about one diagram,

not a scientific paper. Phil, split
any more hairs and I'll go bald.

It's OK, Phil.
Just try to answer the question.

What were you hiding?

This is the diagram.

The blue line is the hockey stick,

the red line is my own similar
reconstructions

and the green line was produced
by my colleague, Keith Briffa,

using tree ring density data.

Keith's data produced similar
results to my own reconstruction,

until 1960,
when it began to diverge.

Diverge? What do you mean?

Well, the real temperatures
increase sharply after 1960.

But the tree rings got narrower,
less dense,

as if the temperature was
decreasing, getting colder.

Why would they do that?
Well, we're not sure. Um...

Acid rain, or the depletion
in the ozone layer, but whatever

the cause, the tree ring data

becomes unreliable after 1960.

But if it's unreliable then, how do
we know it was any good before?

Its match to previous instrument
readings were strong

and universal all through the 19th
and 20th century until 1960.

But on the graph,
there's no divergence? Yes, and...

..I knew that the data became
unreliable,

so I included only the real
temperatures in the green line.

To hide the decline.

In tree ring density.
But not the temperature?

Well... There was
no decline in temperature to hide.

Every thermometer in the world
will say the opposite.

The temperatures were rising
all through that period.

And they still are.

Jesus!

They really screwed you over,
didn't they?

Both down? Flat out.

So, how's he doing, your scientist?

Not too great, to be honest.

And who do you think did
this to him?

The hack?

Who knows?

But whoever's behind what's happened
since knows their stuff.

I mean, a few months ago, there was
consensus on global warming.

Now, headlines across the world.

Could have all just happened?

Might not be
anyone behind it at all.

Some big players have had plans
for ages. Oil companies, especially.

They all want to stop the science
getting out there.

What's so crazy is they knew
more about it than anyone else.

All through the '80s, they had
the best climate scientists,

scenario planners...

And these guys, they're
telling them, the CEOs, the boards,

increasing CO2 in the atmosphere,

it's going to be a major
problem for the whole world.

Extreme weather, food shortages,
mass migrations...

So what did they do?

I can't believe I'm saying this,
but...

..they took all that,

all that knowledge, which they
had more of, in more detail,

and earlier than anyone else, and...

Well, they used it to get
ahead of the curve, to come

up with strategies to keep
the public uncertain, unconcerned.

What kind of strategies?
Front organisations, mostly.

Produce alternative research that
backed their message

and then pushed it to the media.

Ah, PR then.

Marketing.

Like what you do.

No, Dad.

At least with what I do, you
know who's pitching to you.

When I read the projections
about what could happen

if we don't do anything...

..and when I see those dates,
2040 to 2050...

..I can't help thinking how old
the girls will be.

What their lives will be like.

How do you know all this?

There's a paper trail.

If you know where to look.

You think it's the oil companies,
then, stole the emails?

Jesus, I don't know, Dad.

It's the internet.

A dark place,
filled with darker places.

I just hope we're doing
the right thing.

Why wouldn't you be?

This isn't a flagship store,
some new trainers.

If we get this wrong, it's...

It's game over for him.

Give Lily a birthday kiss from me.

Of course.

Um...

Um...

I'm...so sorry, Ruth.

You just call me when it's done...

..with that journalist.

SHE SOBS

Oh...God!

Philip!

Good morning. Morning. Morning.
How are you? Good. Good. Good.

Are you ready? Yep.

You're going to be all right.
I'll introduce you to Richard.

Neil!

Thank you, love.

They've done this before, you know.

I'm sorry? Gone after people.
Scientists.

Just for doing their job.
He'll be fine. I promise.

I don't want your promises.

I want to be sure you know what
you're doing. Yes, we do.

I've been in this game
a long time. But it isn't!

Don't you see that? Not to us.
I'm sorry, I... A game.

That's not what I meant.
That man in there,

the man you're about to let
the press at... Yeah.

..the press who've dragged him
through the mud for months,
he's my husband.

A father, a grandfather, someone
who's tried to spend his whole

life getting closer to the truth.
His work is important. I...

HE is important! So I bloody well
hope you do know what you're doing

because this might be just
a job to you, but for us,

we could lose everything! Do you
understand? Everything!

Do you have any regrets?

Well, I regret that
I didn't deal with

the Freedom of Information
request in a better way.

I... I misjudged the situation.

How, exactly?

Well, um...

According to the rules, we're
supposed to do 18 hours of work

on each one before we're allowed
to turn it down and, um,

we received 40 over one weekend,

all requesting the same
data from five different countries.

We were being targeted. You think
they wanted to waste your time?

Well, the data was available
elsewhere.

They were trying to slow us down,
take us away from our work.

And the messages you
sent about deleting the data?

Er, well, er... It wasn't
data. It was emails and, um...

Well, that was...

That was... Um...

Er...

Frustration, um...

They were written in anger.

But you did destroy the data?

Um, no. It wasn't our data to
destroy. It... We interpret it.

We don't create or collect it.

So when the story broke,
this was all just before the

UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen,
right? Yes.

Did that worry you?

That your emails might be
responsible for undermining

the talks two months ago?
Yes. Yes, it did.

An opportunity the world
cannot afford to miss.

The UN Climate Conference gets
under way in Copenhagen.

The mood music is positive

and thousands of people have
converged on Copenhagen,

hoping that some sort of historic
deal might be within reach,

but there are a whole
range of really...

Surely, the CRU emails are going to
undermine the talks, aren't they?

The UN's chief climate scientist
has already said as such.

Look, I'm a member of the UK
negotiating team.

I know how this process works.

These negotiators are grown ups.
They know their science.

Some fabricated scandal is not going
to affect their opinion.

The Saudi negotiator has already
said the emails questions

the validity of this conference.

Well, considering he's had breakfast
with a different oil company

every morning this week,
I suppose he would, wouldn't he?

Look, these talks might fail,

but it's not going to be
because of some stolen emails.

Any thoughts on who might have
stolen the emails?

Well, it seems coordinated, so I...

It could be an intelligence
operation.

The file was loaded on a server in
Tomsk. Do you think this was Russia?

Oh, yes, absolutely.

Well, I have seen
first-hand how active

they can be in stifling
the science of global warming,

but equally, it could also be
the American oil lobby system.

After all, they are the main
source of finance behind these
sort of things.

So you really think whoever did this
wasn't trying to derail the talks?

Was it a coincidence that
these emails were released

just before this COP?
Absolutely not!

But it's public opinion they're
trying to influence,

not these negotiations.

That's what will affect policy,
so no,

this conference is not their target,

but it is their stage.

The, um, hockey stick is
shattered beyond repair.

And we're talking about it today
because of Climategate.

It's a huge deal.
Don't take my word for it.

Just do an internet search
and here's what you find.

George Monbiot in the Guardian,

"Pretending this is not a real
crisis isn't going to make it

"go away.
Phil Jones has got to go."

Christopher Brooker,
the UK Telegraph, "This is the worst

"scientific scandal
of our generation."

The scientists involved in the CRU
controversy violated

fundamental ethical principles,
governing taxpayer funded research.

And in some cases, may have
violated federal laws.

Now, for this reason,

I am calling for the following key
players to be investigated

with possible referral to the US
Justice Department for prosecution -

Phil Jones, Keith Briffa.

CRASHING WAVE

And, um...

..some of these messages you
received...

..were they death threats? Yes.

And if you don't mind me asking...

..what would they say, exactly?

Well, that they knew where I lived.

That...

..I should kill myself.

And if I didn't...

..they'd do it for me.

And did, um...

Did you ever think about that?

About suicide?

Yes.

Several times.

And what, um...
I know this is difficult.

But what stopped you?

Lily.

Lily.

CHILD'S LAUGHTER

Think, Mrs Jones, somewhere
he goes regularly to, you know, mull

over stuff, of to get away from
things? No. No, not without...

Not... Philip? CAR PULLING UP

You... You... SOBBING

All right, all right.

All right, I've got you.

I've got you.

How did it go?
What did you tell them?

Oh, just everything that we
talked about. Good. And...

And what, Philip?

Well, and, um...

About when I, um...

Went... When I didn't, you know,
um... When's it going out?

Tomorrow. Well, I mean, I can...
Nana! I'm sure they won't use it.

Do you want me to call Neil?
I can... I can...

Tell him that... I'm going
to have to warn Matthew. Why?

Ruth... Why?

Because now they'll know you've
got a granddaughter.

Those people.
They'll know about Lily.

You... You call Neil
and we'll speak later. Well...

But...

You didn't ask them to remove the
suicide stuff? It's the best bit.

Takes the heat off Phil
for a week or two.

Puts a face to it. A life.

Reminds people he's a person,
a grandfather.

That's what
we need before the hearing.

What about the hack? Who did this?
How did they do it?

Why did they do it?
I mean, where are the interviews
with the security

correspondents, cyber experts?

Not the story. Since
when is the crime not the story?

When what it achieved is more
interesting.

Have you seen these poll
figures from the US,

conducted in the months after
the leak went viral?

"59% of Americans say scientists
have falsified research data to

"support their beliefs
about global warming.

"Only 26% take the opposite view."

It's worked, hasn't it? Yeah.

What we need is a proper deflection,
someone to point the finger at.

A likely suspect for who did
the hack, or who was behind it.

The hacker gave the emails file
names, linked to the date

and time that the email was sent.

They must have written a program
to extract the date and time from

the text and a tool to convert that
to the number of seconds elapsed.

If the times when the email was sent

and the time zone on the computer
the hacker was using to process

the emails differed, then the file
name generator will be incorrect.

For example, an email
sent from Greenwich Mean Time would

give us an error of five hours.

Now, this five hour
mismatch could be later,

placing the location in this
time zone, Russia and Pakistan,

or earlier, in this location,
on the East Coast of America.

Now, emails from this time zone
give us an error or zero hours.

Indicating that's where the
emails were processed?

East Coast of the US?

Yes. Well, that's going to
go down well, isn't it?

Now, it is possible that the hacker
reset his computer to avoid

detection. What's GCHQ's input?

They confirm
the Department of Energy

and Climate Change has been
an intelligence collection

target for China and Russia,
but in terms of active state action

and these kind of tactics,
in this area...

Why do the dirty work yourself, if
you can pull the strings remotely?

Smart.

And if we follow the money,
where does that take us?

Well, Russia does have a huge
oil industry.

And with the melting
of the ice caps, it is

looking to exploit the Arctic,
but...

Yes, if you really want to follow
the money, it takes us

back here, to the US.

Oil lobbies. Exxon, Koch Brothers.

They're the ones with real
skin in the game.

Someone out there knows
who did this.

Who the gun for hire hacker
was and who was paying them.

How the
hell are we meant to find them,

if the internet makes
a joke of the search?

OK, let's try again.

Like this...

The facts are this.

The facts are this.

This is a House of Commons select
committee. They'll be out for meat.

You've got to get them on side.

You do know what's at stake here?

Oh...

What I don't get is,
this is all you've ever done.

For the last 30 years, you've stuck
it out, you've been loyal, whatever.

This has been your life!

I mean, don't you care?!

Yes.

What? Yes! I do care!

Maybe...

Phil.

Phil?

What do you want me not to say?

I don't want you not to say
anything.

I just want you to tell the truth.

But in a way that it can be
understood. Short answers.

No jargon.

Why does this all matter?

What?

Well...

Because what's... What they...

Because it isn't true.

Right. But beyond that?

What happens if they win?

What happens if everyone ignores
your measurements, your graphs?

Well...

I suppose we'll just carry on
emitting more greenhouse gases.

Global temperatures will
continue to increase.

And if we do that,
what actually happens?

Well, the projection hasn't changed.
It's still the same.

The same as what?

As when US scientists first
studied it in the '70s.

Go on.

Well, a doubling of CO2 emissions
in the atmosphere will

result in a 1.5 to 4.5 degree
increase.

In what?
Average surface temperature.

Polar amplification will mean
that melting in the poles will be
greater.

Maybe as much as ten degrees.

What happens, Phil,

for our children

and their children?
No numbers, just the consequences.

Well...

By 2100,

dust bowl conditions
across North America and Africa,

Asia too.

Sooner than that,
a massive reduction in agricultural

production,
access to drinking water,

migration in huge numbers.

Um...

Bushfires on a massive scale
in Australia, the West Coast.

Annual melting at the poles,
the West Antarctic ice sheet,

well, because of that,

the global sea level rise of,
well...

..metres.

But what does that all mean for us?
People.

Make me see it, Phil.

Well...

In this worst case scenario...

..70% of the habitable world will
no longer be able to sustain

human life.

Millions of species will become
extinct.

And coastal
and delta cities will be underwater.

And, well...

..if the methane in the permafrost
and on the seabed is released,

well...

Yes?

The climate will collapse.

And the world as we know it...

..will be gone.

Now, we know there are some people
out there who think

everything you've just said
is bollocks.

Maybe even some of the hearing
committee, who knows?

But if you can remember
everything you just said

when you're answering them, no
matter how dry those answers are...

..then we don't have
to worry about it.

Let's take a break.

Anything?

It's the same names cropping up
again and again.

With tobacco in the '70s,
acid rain in the '80s,

and now with global warming.

It's not just the same strategy,
it's the same bloody people.

But all this now with Phil,
the emails, it's just...

The latest battle in the longer war.

It always is, son.

You'll come to see that.

It always is.

They're going to tear him apart.

We've still got a couple more days.

We'll have to rehearse
the hell out of him.

Choreograph it step by step.

Royal Ballet will have nothing on us
by the time we're done.

So why not release the data?
Shouldn't everyone get to see it?

Don't focus on how you feel,
focus on how you come across.

How is someone sitting
there on the other side seeing you?

The select committee hearing is
your only chance to defend yourself.

So, how is that right,

to stop other scientists
publishing their findings?

Weren't you just using your position
to quash other opinions?

Yes or no, did you ask
your colleagues to delete emails?

There was no manipulation, yup...

So you've been manipulating
the historic records, is that right?

So, there was no manipulation,
just adjustment in the pursuit

of accuracy
because that's how science works.

That's...how we get to the truth.

SLOW CLAPPING

APPLAUSE

Well done, Phil. Well done!

How are you feeling?

Just show them who you are.

What else can I do? No, I...

Do you remember when we first met?

In the halls of residence?

I was playing darts and your room
was on the other side of the wall.

You came out to ask us to be quiet.
It was... It was distracting.

I know!

The way you asked us,
the way you carried yourself.

I could tell straight away,
here was a good man.

A kind man.

A man of integrity.

All the pieces of that
man are still here, Philip...

..which means so is he.

That's who I want you to show them.

You'll be fine, Phil.
Watch your shoe.

Here we are. OK, so, good luck
gentlemen. You're not coming in?

Not going to help your cause
if the press see me in there.

Keep to the brief. Good luck.

This is the only day of verbal
evidence for the select committee

and they're keen to
hear from their star witness,

the former head of the climate
research unit at the University

of East Anglia, and the subject
of many of those emails, Phil Jones.

This is the first time he's come
under close public scrutiny.

So, shall we begin,
Professor Jones, Professor Acton?

Thank you. I do have a general
statement I'd like to make. No.

No general statements, please.

Oh, Jesus! Just answer the questions
when you're asked them.

Perhaps I could just go back to one
of Lord Lawson's earlier comments.

What did I miss?

That without an understanding
of the methodology, that the

peer review system is rather
defunct?

Well, the, um...

The methods are published in the

scientific papers, um, that...

That... That... Relatively simple.

There's nothing sort of rocket
science about them. They're...

Can you explain your email exchange
on the 21st of January 2005,

when you say you aren't going to...
How are they doing?

Not bad.
..Find something wrong with it?

That's the nature of scientific
pursuits, isn't it?

Well, I've obviously written some very awful emails. CHUCKLING

Let's get you home.

You found him.

..To look at the key works of CRU,

to reaffirm the sure-fire
quality of the science

and my I end by saying
just how proud

I am of the contribution that UEA
and CRU in particular has

made to humanity's ability
to understand climate change.

So, what happens now?

We wait.

We wait.

Ah, Trevor.
Do you know what time the select
committee will publish their report?

Some time in the morning,
so they said. Right.

Are you familiar with
the Fermi paradox...

..the contradiction of lack
of evidence for alien life,

and considering the size
and age of the universe,

the high possibility
of its existence? Yes, yes.

The great science. Yeah.

I read a paper yesterday that
suggested climate change

might be the answer.

There have perhaps been other
civilisations, thousands...

..but they all did what
we're doing now,

became more and more advanced
and in doing so... Yes, I see.

..burnt themselves out.
Bright and brief.

It does make you wonder, doesn't it,

if all this we're
fighting against is, well...

..possibly what we're meant to do?

I'll admit humanity does
have something of a gift

for normalising great change,

even when it threatens us.

But we do also have a
gift for survival

against predators, disease,
dictators.

We do somehow survive.

Even if how we live is
the danger?

You have to hope so, don't you?

Goodnight, Trevor.

"The focus on Professor Phil
Jones and CRU has been...

"Has been misplaced.

"Within the inquiry,
and the evidence we took,

"the scientific
reputation of Professor Jones

"and CRU remains intact.

"We have found no reason in
this unfortunate episode...

"..to challenge the scientific
consensus that global warming

"is happening
and is induced by human activity.

"In so far as we've been able to
consider accusations of dishonesty,

"for example, Professor Jones'
alleged attempt to hide

"the decline, we consider
there is...

"There is no case to answer."

..The work done by CRU and have
no doubt that for all of us,

our children and our grandchildren,
Phil Jones was

and is the right man
in the right place

at the right time.

Phil Jones.

Phil Jones. Phil Jones.

All the other reports reached
the same conclusion.

There were seven,
in total, by the end.

Even one that no-one knew about,
the...

The United States Environmental
Protection Agency?

"A manufactured controversy".

That's what they called it.

For us though, it didn't feel like
we could even begin to move on

until two years later when this big
project in California happened.

Berkeley Earth, it was called, set
up to prove Philip's work was wrong.

Anyway...

..they took all the
data CRU had used

and started from scratch.

With some known sceptics on the team
too, even Steve Mosher,

the man who first picked out
those extracts.

The Trick, Hide the Decline.

Even him.

And what do you know?

Came up with the same
results as Philip.

The same results.

Phil.

It's... Sam.

I remember.

How are you?

I'm very good.

Yes, good, good. Yeah.

Oh, this is me.

Good to see you. And you, Sam.

Yeah.

Yeah, take care.

Yeah, and you.

Everything that happened back then,
the hacking,

other campaigns,

it had a significant
effect on public opinion.

Cost us between eight to ten years,
according to some studies.

A decade, so, yes, we could have
had 20 years to sort this out,

but now, we've only got around ten.

If that.

And who's pushing
hardest for action?

The children, people Lily's age,
which does give me some hope.

They understand, you see,
what needs to be done.

And who knows?

If it only took one generation
to break the planet,

why can't it take just
one to fix it?

I know we should have more time,
but at least we do still have time.

Just.