Original subtitles

Welcome folks to lesson eight of the swing trading module.

This is the million dollar swing set up.

Okay.

Folks.

What I refer to as the million dollar swing set up.

Now, before we get into it, this understand that we are not stating that

you're making a million dollars on this.

It just means that it's in the best condition I have found in my

technical tools, that warrants, in my opinion, the greater.

Study and focus.

And if we can get these types of scenarios from the marketplace, it just bodes

well for us to seek out opportunities.

When they present themselves, the way I frame the main dollar swing

set up is in this order here.

And it starts with obviously looking for a seasonal tendency.

I believe wholeheartedly that there are strong seasonal

tendencies in the marketplace.

That go without saying I I've shown many instances over the years, how

strong seasonal tendencies are because there's a strong probability of it.

Continuing in the future.

I start all my analysis.

There is a lot of trades that repeat themselves year to year with.

It just, it would be foolish not to at least go in and investigate

and see if there's any more technicals and fundamentals.

If you want to say it that way to come in to agreement with that trade idea

in alignment with a seasonal tendency, whether it be bullish or bearish.

Once we arrive at a time, a dare is a seasonal tendency.

The next thing is we have to do a major market analysis.

We break the market down in terms of the fate, the four major asset classes.

And then we determine if we are in a risk on risk off and are we in a

trending or consolidating market profile?

Then we moved to an interim analysis phase where we look at closely correlated pairs,

and we look at the relationships between the four major asset classes, stocks by.

Or interest rates, commodities and currencies.

And then we do a top-down analysis pulling out all of the major levels

that would be salient for a swing trade.

Then I go into and look for the trades set up itself, and then I

go into obviously trade management.

So we're gonna break this down and give us a little bit more detail on how I go about

going in and looking for swing trades.

Okay.

The very first thing is, and this is going to be a mindset type teaching.

It gives you the process, if you will, what I go through

and how I think about things.

So for our seasonal tendency, the first question I ask myself is, is

there a seasonal tendency to buy presently or will there be soon?

If the answer to that question is yes, then I proceed to

the major market analysis.

You have the answers?

No.

Then I consider another asset or market that does,

if there's no asset class or market offering a seasonal tendency,

then I wait for a new one.

Now, what does that mean?

That means there's no swing trades.

I can not trade a swing trade.

Unless the first role is there has to be a seasonal tendency

without a seasonal tendency.

I don't treat.

Now there's going to be lots of swings that occur every single

year, every calendar month, there's going to be something, but if it

doesn't line up with a seasonal tendency for me, I'm not taking it.

Now, if you want to forget this portion of the template and you just want to

simply look at everything else and with the exception of seasonal tendency being.

Then go right ahead.

But for me personally, what makes this a million dollar setup is it's

already based on historical evidence that it repeats itself many times,

not just once in a while consistently.

Now, once I've been cleared for a seasonal tendency, that is in the process of either

forming or is currently in effect, I go to a major market analysis process.

The question I asked myself, are the interest rate markets and

or currency markets, basically the dollar index trending.

If the answer is yes, then I proceeded to commodity and stock filter process.

If the answer is no, then I consider short-term or day trades for now, and I

have to wait for swing trade conditions.

Now notice what I just stated.

Now we haven't talked about short-term trading.

We haven't talked about day trading yet, but what this does,

it gives me a context to work from.

If I don't have the conditions that are right for swing trading, I don't

just simply say I can't trade anymore.

I go down to the lower, shorter timeframe, whether it be short term trading or day

trading, I just can't force the opinion of taking a swing trade without the frame.

Or the commodity and or stock markets trending.

If yes, then proceed to the intermarket analysis process.

If no, then consider short term or day trades for now and wait

for swing trade conditions.

I have to have both of these in agreement.

Now you only need one from each.

In other words, it can be the interest rates market is trending and the

stock market's trending, or it could be commodities and interest rates are

trending or it could be currencies and commodities are trending, but

you need one from each group to agree that there's a training environment

and the intermarket analysis phase.

This is for foreign currency or metal or swing trade setup.

Okay.

We look at the cot hedging program and I asked myself, are commercials

buying or selling currently, if they're buying, that means they're above the

zero basis line, that would be created by looking at the last 12 months.

If they're buying, then we proceed to the correlation analysis.

If they're selling, then consider short term or day trades for now.

Wait for swing trading conditions.

Now let me rephrase this again.

This is all the conditions for buying a metal or a foreign currency.

Okay.

What we're looking for is the commercials to be lessening their shorts.

If they're, if they're below the zero line for distinct.

Uh, and that triggers a graph if it's below that zero line, that indicates

that they're net short, but just because they're net short doesn't mean that we

can't use the information based on the last 12 months of range, what was the

highest and the lowest range they've had in their net position and dividing

that in half, we can get a new range in terms of whether they're buying or

selling based on their hedging program.

If we can see that they have moved into a buying side, even below the zero

level on a net trader says in chart, if this occurs, we can be moving forward

to the correlation analysis process.

Now, if we are above the zero line, then obviously the commercials aren't that

long, but just be mindful that even with a net short position by the commercial.

They can still be fared it out in terms of what they're doing based on their

hedging program in the last 12 months.

If we don't see that the frame, the buy by them being less, any other shorts or

new buying in that long in the cot graph, if that's not there, we have to either

consider short term or day trades for now.

In other words, we're waiting for swing trade conditions,

the correlation analysis.

The question I asked myself is, is the dollar index supporting bears

price action for the us dollar.

If yes, then I proceed to the commodity filter process.

If no, then I consider short term or day trades for now.

And I wait for swing trade conditions, re iterating this.

If we're bullish on foreign currencies or.

We're going to be looking for the dollar index to be looking to trade

lower or it's indicating bearish prices are in, in order to know what's

this SMT divergence against the, uh, the metal or the foreign currency.

If we can see that, then we can proceed to commodity filter process.

If we do not get that, we wait for day trade or short-term

trade commodity filter process.

I asked myself are commodities rallying.

Breaking old highs or rejecting old lows.

In other words, they're finding support and smashing through a resistance levels.

If we're seeing that, that bodes well for our filter, we're seeing commodities being

bullish while the dollar index is bearish.

That's a normal symmetrical market condition.

If to answer that question is yes, then we can proceed to the open interest filter.

If the answer is no, then we consider short term or day trades

for now, and we have to wait for swinging trade conditions.

Open interest filter process is open interest dropping, or has

it dropped 10 to 15% or more?

This indicates commercial short covering.

You can get, you have an interest for a market on bar chart.com and

I've done many examples of that.

And I'll actually give up.

In terms of the website addresses and all that in your PDF

notes, but the answer is yes.

Then we proceed to the top-down analysis process.

If the answer is no, then we consider short term or day trades for now

and wait for swing trade conditions

in a market analysis for foreign currencies and metal bear swing trades.

We look at the cot hedging program last 12 months for the net trailers

position on the commercial traders only what's the highest range,

high and low other net positions.

I asked myself, are commercial traders buying or selling currently, if the

answer is selling, or if they're holding a net short position, then we proceed

to the correlation analysis process.

If it answers.

With buying by the commercials or the net long thing had to consider

short-term or day trades for now.

Wait for swinging trade conditions,

correlation analysis process.

I asked myself the question is the dollar index supporting bullish

price action for the U S dollar.

If the answer is yes, then I proceed to the commodity filter process.

If no, then consider short-term or day trades.

And then I wait for swing, trade conditions, commodity filter process.

I asked myself, are commodities dropping lower?

Are they breaking old blows?

And are they rejecting old highs?

If the answer is yes, then I proceed on to the open interest filter process.

If the answer's no, then I consider short term or day trades for now.

I wait for swing trade.

Open interest filter process is OpenEdge is rising or has

it increased 10 to 15% or more?

This is commercial short selling.

If the answer is yes, then proceed to the top-down analysis process.

If the answer is no, then consider short term or day trades for now.

Wait for swing trading conditions,

the top-down analysis process.

You know, denying the 18 month history of price action.

You identify all PD arrays on monthly, weekly, daily, and for

our timeframes and transpose all to your four-hour timeframe chart.

No.

If the data ranges on a daily chart that are 20, 40 and 60 days back

from today, look for PD erased to assist in their identity.

If all the ETA data range, PD rates are exhausted or traded to for the 20

day, look back, move out to the 40 day.

Look back then to the 60 day, look back, look for the up-to-date arranges and PD

arrays to converge with one another, to determine high probability institutional

order flow and levels based on the bullish or bearish stance or premise you treated.

Focus on the respective PD, rays for trade setups.

For instance, if you're bullish, you're gonna be focusing on

monthly, weekly, daily discount erased a frame, a long entry.

If bearish you're focusing on a monthly, weekly, daily

premium arrays to frame a short,

the bitrates.

Going to note all monthly and weekly discount erase the best

odds are seen with these levels.

Offering an explosive rally,

confirm a monthly, weekly, daily discount array entry.

This is going to be support for dollar index weakness for SMT.

It's a dollar index confirms bearishness while trading at a discount rate

on your currency of trade or metal execute, trade entry, the trade entry.

If buying a bullish breaker or mitigation block, the ideal entry

technique is buying on a stop.

If buying on a bullish liquidity, void or fair value.

Ideal entry technique is buying on a stop.

If buying on a Bush or block rejection block or below an old low,

ideal entry technique is buying on a limit use position trading entry

techniques for limit and stock orders.

See January study notes pages 1 28 and 1 29 and 1 41 and one 40.

The cell trade set up nude all monthly, weekly premium arrays.

The best odds are seen in these levels.

Offering an explosive rally lower

confirm, a monthly, weekly, daily array entry at resistance with

the dollar index strength for SMT.

Gift dollar index confirms bullishness while trading at the

premium array on your currency or metal trade execute, trade entry,

trade entry.

If shorting a bearish breaker or mitigation block, ideal entry

technique is sewing on a stop.

If shorting a bear's liquidity void or fair value gap, ideal

entry technique is selling on.

If shorting a bear shorter block rejection block or above an old high, ideal entry

technique is selling on the limit.

Use position trading entry techniques for limit and or stop orders.

See January study notes pages 1 28 and 1 29 and 1 41 and 1 42

by trade.

Look for contrary monthly, weekly, daily premium arrays to reach for a while long.

If applicable, look for fifth extension confluences with premium erase leave.

Stop loss from initial placement until price has moved.

One third of your intended trade direction.

If trade moves in your favor, one quarter of your intended

objective, take something often.

Profit use 20 to 30% for scaling first profit move, protective stop loss

to break even after first profit is taking never before when trade moves

to 50% of your intended objective.

Look for new buying opportunities to add back to one quarter,

taken off after a short term.

Take full position off at intended premium array objective or

seventy-five to 80% in trail stop-loss below the most recent four hour.

Short-term low

be mindful of the market can and will likely make it run for

cell stops at, or just above 50% of the range you hold through.

Don't rush trailing to stop.

If you're stopped out, reconsider the original reasons for the trade.

If they're still valid, re-enter at a new monthly, weekly or daily discount array

sell trade management.

Look for contrary, monthly, weekly, daily discount raised to reach for while

short, if applicable, look for fifth extension conferences for discounts.

Leave stop-loss from initial placement until price has moved.

One third of your intended trade direction.

If trade moves in your favor, one quarter of your intended

objective, take something often.

Profit use 20 to 30% for scaling first profit move,

protective stop loss to break.

Even after first profit is taking.

When trade moves to 50% of your intended objective.

Look for new shorting opportunities to add back the one quarter taken off

after a short-term bounce take full position off at intended discount array,

a Jetta or seventy-five to 80% in trail.

Stop-loss above the most recent for our short short-term high.

Be mindful.

The market can and will likely make it run for by stops at or just below.

50% of the range you hold through.

Don't rush.

Stop trailing.

If stopped out, reconsider the original reasons for the trade is still valid.

Reenter at new monthly, weekly, daily premium array.

Okay.

The million dollar swing set up.

It's going to be looking at gold for this.

The seasonal tendency we like to focus on.

And we recently used in the mentorship.

You can see through December into January, there's a strong

tendency for gold to rally.

And from January into February, again, we're using the calendar reference points

at the bottom of the chart, not the top, the top yellow squares rounded squares.

They're uh, they're the contract delivery.

What we're using is that the calendar months at the bottom of the chart.

So December to January is a strong tendency for the gold market to rally.

And then continuing from January into February the market, generally

for the gold market rallies.

So we have a strong teas, seasonal tendency, price of gold to rally from

December into mid February, early March.

So I have seasonal tenant.

And we are checking our major market analysis.

The bond markets are trending.

The dollar index is trending.

The CRB index is flat going into December and the stock market is trending.

So we have the market in a favorable condition for a swing trading.

Now we started looking at.

What the commercials are doing the commercials.

If we look back in the last 12 months, we can see that the

range high made in January, 2016.

And we were looking at the red line as the commercials and the low end

of their 12 month range is here.

And that's seen in the month of July, you can see, as we went

into the month of December, 2016, The market shows the commercials

going up in the green shaded area.

That's the range of the last 12 months.

That's a buying condition.

That means that they have hedged and bought aggressively

in less than their shorts.

At the same time, William's percent R is in an oversold condition.

That means sentiment is extremely bearish.

While the commercials are showing a lessening of shorts

and the open interest is decline.

And here we can see the purple line open interest is declined

aggressively over a hundred contracts.

The commercials show a lessening of shorts with the red line going higher.

At the same time, we are oversold sentiment.

Now we can start going in to see if there's justification

for the dollar index.

Confirming gold should go higher.

You can see the point of December going into January goal was

failing to make lower lows at a major support level for gold.

And we'll look at that 1, 1, 4, 2.

And the dollar index shows a willingness to go higher.

So there's the diversions we're looking for.

And we're gonna go through the commodities, just a handful sampling

as we're going into December, November, December, January, uh, soybeans was

able to take out short-term highs.

Every low was being rejected.

So there was bullishness under tones in the commodity market for soybeans.

November December, you can see that the high-grade copper

has been bullish as well.

It's not been wanting to go lower cruel, made a higher, low going into

December, and it was easily taking out.

Short-term highs rejecting the short-term low meet in December.

I'm sorry.

Uh, And live cattle was failing to make lower lows, easily

taking out short-term highs.

So commodities as a whole, they were bullish.

And we're gonna look at the 1, 1, 4, 2 level, which is the high noted on

this monthly candle on the gold market.

And you can see that's the bullish or blocked the last down

candle rate for the up move.

In November of 2015, rather large displacement going into 2016 price

trades all the way up into 1370 or so.

And we refined our objective.

Should we get long?

Uh, we were gonna look for that 1250 level.

Noted off of the weekly, October 17th, 2016 candle.

And notice we have an old low back here as well.

We're going to be referencing the 1200 level for goal seen by

May 1st, 2016 or maze candle.

Let's should say it that way.

Okay.

So we have the 1200 level noted here.

I want you to take a look at how price reacted there.

We had basically the midway point of the price swing from the 1142 level.

Now we're not looking at 1130 cause he can never get to the actual low.

So don't think that you're ever going to do that.

We're going to look at the monthly level or block at 1 11 42.

So 1, 11 42 is our objective or support level.

And the range projection up is around 1255 to 1260 midway point is that 1200 level

measuring the range from the 1142 level off of that monthly order block,

the PD array and up to the weekly PD.

The premium of 12 60, 12 55 and the discount of 1142 to 1150 buying down

at 1145 to 1150 levels, projecting that range up and measuring that we can

get an equilibrium price point of 12.

Also note that from the equilibrium price point, there was only

one real significant stop run.

And it happened after the equilibrium price point had

been breached to the upside.

This is when you end up expecting a stop run on your trade.

So it's important that you don't show your stop loss up aggressively.

You have to know your range 12 55, 12 60.

So we measure that.

So that gets us all the levels to start looking for a mapping out where

each quadrant of the swing would be.

We know equilibrium is at 1200, so between twelve hundred and eleven forty five

or 1142, if you want to use the actual order block on the monthly chart, that

range divided in half would give you a new equilibrium price point and you

can break that down and you actually start seeing the smaller price swings

in the larger price, because prices for.

This is the intended trade objective, the full range, the equilibrium price point

when it's traded through, when the upside expect and anticipate a stop run to take

out the cell stops below the marketplace.

Then the second leg of the price action, going to the

final objective, 12 35, 12 60.

That's usually.

Not going to see another stock run until it gets to the last quarter or

last third of the overall price move

from the midway point or the equilibrium once that stopped, Ron was hit and

all the cell stops were taken out below the 1195 to 1190 level that when

price came down and hit that midway.

Around the 1183 level.

It also came down into an older block last down in Canada, right?

For the up move around the 1175 to 1180 price level, which causes that low.

Now we have a daily PD array at that order block.

We can measure this price swing here and start doing projection.

So you take your Fibonacci port from the high down to the low and use

your extension is 1 27 and 1 62.

By having these levels on your chart, you arrive at 1260, which is

at the confluence of Fibonacci and weekly PDA rays and monthly PDRs.

So it's this swing here.

You measure for swing projections.

Notice also.

That this is the final portion of the range.

So the second portion should only see another stop run after the

highest taking out that's formed it.

Didn't midway point of the overall price swing.

So in other words, that the high, this price swing that's being noted

here around the 1220 level, once that high's taken out, you won't see

another stop run on the lows until.

We trade through that level.

So in other words, there's going to be a stop run.

After midway point is breached.

Usually come back and knock out the, the scared bowls that don't want to have

any goop and risk, then price trades through the equilibrium price point

again, and Nixon Nixon short term high.

When it comes back down, it will try to retest to midway or

equilibrium high in that retracement.

Many times you're going to see the stock run.

That's usually the last.

And you can see that happening around that 1220 level, then price rise away.

We called the 1220 to 12 18, 12, 17 level as a buys, a swing trade.

It's moved from basically 1220, all about the 1260s.

That's $4,000 per contract for silver.

And you can see here measuring that overall price swing again.

You can see.

The swings and the grades at which how they retraced and breaking your

overall price swing, even on the second portion, in a smaller quadrant.

So you can see how fractals occur inside of the second portion of that swing.

So what makes this the million dollar trade set up?

The fact that we have a system by going through the overall market,

breaking it down, systematically, looking for condition.

If the conditions are there, we're given the permission to go

to the next stage of analysis.

If we do not get it, we had to sit on our hands and wait, once we

get it, we know we can go into the marketplace and trade accordingly.

We know when we're going to take a stop loss and move it higher.

We know when we're going to leave it alone.

We know when we're going to buy on a stock or we're when

we're going to buy on a limit.

We know we're going to sell on a stock.

I'm going to sell on a limit there's conditions.

Now I know some of you and it's going to be the ones that don't

want to do the work, and don't really want to pay attention.

And you just want to give me a system where I can plug it in my chart

and it's going to pop up something.

That's not how this is folks.

It requires you to put some work into it.

And that means while I'm talking these notations that I'm giving

you in audio commentary, you should be adding them to the.

So in your study notes, it's not just my notes that you're looking for.

It's, you're adding your Eureka moments or your questions about certain things.

You add them as plenty of open space on these charts.

For that very reason.

Otherwise, I was zooming in really tight and you wouldn't have much room at all.

I want you to use the time and the study notes to make your own notes,

draw references to things that you didn't think about, or maybe you learned

the first time in, in this teaching.

Uh, something in regards to the stop-loss, uh, in regards to, uh, you

know, when are you buying on a stock and when are you selling on a limit?

We got specific conditions.

We know which PD.

We look for in terms of buying on a stock and selling on a limit,

all those, their conditions.

Now, you know, when to do it, what price level you're gonna look for.

We're not looking at zones, we're looking at specific price levels.

We're looking at anticipating when the swing is going to

make a overall price move.

We can divide that in half.

Once it hits the halfway point, we would anticipate a stock run or a

retracement or a bounce in a bear market.

Once that rates.

It stops are gone.

We're going to look for expansion going towards our larger objective.

Once that equilibrium price point is taken out, we will look for another retracement.

And then inside that we will anticipate the second stop run.

After that generally there isn't another stock run at all.

It just makes it run quickly to the objective on the upside.

So we can see that second stock run in here.

Note it's Haftar that midway point is breached and it's traded

higher and it comes back as.

Then finally that last portion is a quick reach for that 1260 level.

I promise you if you go through this and you take the consideration of going

through every single detail and applying it to your charts and looking at examples,

you'll see that what I'm explaining here ferrets out the really solid swings.

Also note that it's also limiting your trades, that only those that are.

Poised to move higher or lower.

So it reduces the number of potential setups.

So you can't overtrade, it's literally impossible.

Overtrade you know, now because of the content in January, what the seasonal

tendencies are that I like to trade, there's nothing apart from them that

I want to trade as a swing trade.

Majority of my trades are short term and day trades.

That's why I Excel there because most of my trades are there.

So if you keep doing a lot of the same thing by experience, you get.

Swing trades again, they only set up around four to six weeks.

I can't wait four to six weeks to take a trade.

I have to be doing something more frequent than that.

So if you can't day trade or short-term trade, this is the, in my opinion, the

million dollar answer to that question.

What should you be doing?

You have all the conditions in this marketplace.

Now I've given you the.

It's cut.

It's literally, you can make a flow chart of your own or checklist if you will.

But the way I just did it here is exactly what I do.

And you've watched me do it without going through this whole mechanics of it all.

That's the process I went through to come to conclusion that gold was going to go

higher and silver was going to go higher.

All of these things.

But it's not going to be any benefit to you.

You just watching the video one time and then waiting to get to the next thing.

Like there's going to be some secret little plug and play.

It pops up in your chart.

You have to think about some things and you have to make decisions

each stage of your analysis.

You have to question.

Is there something for me to do right now?

If there isn't, it doesn't mean forget the whole idea.

It just means you have to wait for new.

And that's the hardest part.

That's where patients has to kick in either you're going to eat,

become patient, or you're going to remain impatient and you're not

going to be a part of mentorship.

You're not going to be a successful trader.

You're just going to chase something else or you'll forget trading all together.

The ones that are solid, the ones that are convicted about

becoming successful in trading.

They know now they have rural-based ideas for swing trades.

You know that you got to do certain things to get to the next stage of analysis.

Nothing in here is difficult.

Nothing in here is, uh, highly technical, but it is a procedure

that you go through that leads you to the outcome you're looking for.

Don't take my word for it.

Use the framework and go back over, say the last two years and see if

those ideas aren't ferreting out all the solid swing trades both long and.

So it's been a pleasure for me to share this swing trading model of mine.

And I prayed it.

You do not make this stuff coming out.

So again, if, if this is your last month with us, please be respectful and just

know that you have something that's a really, really strong analysis concept.

It ferrets out amazing swing trades.

You've seen, it has been used to outline gold market.

This was the way I did it.

Okay.

This is how I did it.

So if I tell you this, how I do it, um, just know that when we go forward

and we break the market's down because we've completed the swing trading model.

Now we will be able to go through the marketplace and actually do the real

time analysis to ferret out any new short term swing trades going forward.

As we go into the new content for short-term trading in.

So the concepts are this.

As we learn all the rules about each individual discipline, the next month

we can start going in and using it all.

Now we have all the framework for position trading and swing trading.

We will be learning short-term trading while we're going through

the short-term trading in March, we will be continuously looking for

swing, trade ideas, and potentially long-term position trading ideas.

When we finished March and short-term trading.

We will be going into day trading in April while we're going through April,

we will have all the information about short-term trading in April.

We will be absolutely trading.

One shot, one kills every single week.

Okay.

So that way, you know what we're doing, how the context of the

information is is utilized and all these things, how they come together.

That's the framework.

That's the structure.

When we're done learning, uh, day trading in April.

In may, we'll be day trading every single day while we learn scalping

and then we'll be going into other content later in mentorship.

So hopefully this has been insightful T guys, I can't wait

to get your feedback on what you think about the swing trading model.

I told you it's not complicated at all, but it requires you to think, and you

have to go through some of the content that you've already digested already.

And you have to know some things.

If you don't know what SMT divergence.

You got to do some study on that and all that stuff is in the free tutorials.

So next time, which good luck and good trading.