Original subtitles

Welcome back folks, welcome to a new week of trading.

Um, before we get into it, that's what, you know, it's going to be a

short session today and we'll try to keep the sessions brief because the

teachings are going to be pretty lengthy.

So let's keep that in mind.

I know some of you have an issue with timeliness about digesting the content,

but, uh, lucky the majority of the.

And the teaching.

So there'll be a long-winded sessions there.

I want to introduce a concept you're going to be referring to in

lesson three, we're gonna be looking at a relative strength analysis.

And some ideas when you use these concepts and where to apply them, it's just

kind of like a complimentary teaching.

Cause I'm just going to briefly mention it in passing, uh, in less than three.

So that way I'm not bogging down that lesson cause there's a lot

of content for less than three.

So if I gave you supporting teachings throughout this week, they will be.

In, uh, in concert with the same idea or premise with less than three, because

otherwise I could create a whole month of just less than three by itself, I

guess, in a way it really is, but it's sub sub lessons or supporting lessons

to, uh, to drive home to the content.

Okay.

So we're going to be looking at K.

So we're gonna be looking at the weekly charts first, and we're going

to just scroll through the Euro, the pound, all the New Zealand.

K.

Japanese yen, Swiss seat and the dollar index.

Now not showing any charts with analysis on it.

All we're looking at is price action.

Okay.

And we're gonna be looking at some specific viewpoints and things that

are salient to knowing what the future price legs may be higher or

lower, or if there's going to be a high probability for a swing at all.

Now, obviously if we were all in the room together and I asked you all to raise your

head, And I'm asking this rhetorically.

So those that are here live, you don't need to do this.

The, uh, the folks that look at analysis and they start looking at trend lines,

or they look at the Elliott wave or, or market structure, even, um, some of the

things that go along with all of those ideas are generally count the same.

You're looking for something to indicate that the market's

going to move higher or lower.

What I have learned is that.

Very few teachers or disciplines of trading focus on the conditions of

the marketplace that would arrive at a probable trade for swing.

If the markets are predisposed to go higher or lower, that's one thing.

Okay.

But we have to look at a market that's predisposed to move in general

because most markets are generally trying to be maintained in a range.

Okay.

And.

If we start on a higher timeframe, weekly chart, and it can be done on a month.

I'm just going to save some time.

But everything you do here on the weekly, you just apply it to the monthly as well.

And we'll have those rules in less than three that you're

going to have this month.

But when we scroll through the, the weekly charts, this is the

Euro versus the dollar weekly.

And what you want to be looking for is the last three to six months trend.

Okay.

Or this basically what's the price action in the last three to.

That's all that's necessary.

You're a swing trader.

That's the, that's your time horizon.

You don't look at 15 year charts.

You don't look at 20 year charts.

You don't look at one-year charts.

All you need to know is what's the last three to six months time horizon.

What has the market done in the last three to six months?

Okay.

As long as your charts show that much data.

Okay.

You'll know where the next probable price swing is going to be and

what it's going to be reaching.

And it's really just that simple.

What happens is we start applying a wave, a B, and C and retracement, this

and that, and the other thing, and we start complicating it when it's a simple

task of looking at where, where have we been in the last three to six months?

And where are the liquidity pools?

Where's the, uh, the PDAs in reference to the weekly chart.

And here's the main thing.

This is what we're focusing on today.

What market profile are we in?

For the weekly chart and, or the monthly chart.

And some of you sent me questions, you know?

W how do you determine what the market profile is?

Like?

What, what stages of analysis, or what classifications do you use to outline

that, or frame it as a consolidation trending, or where your soul, and we're

going to kind of cover that today.

So looking at the Eurodollar, going to take a look at the last.

Three to six months.

Okay.

And we're in February now.

So

we're going to go back to here.

A little bit that far, and I'm going to ask you, it's pretty, it should be

obvious if one were to ask everyone in the room, if I was standing in

front of you all in a big group, I say, okay, raise your hand right now.

If you think in the shaded area, that is a trending market,

you'd all raise your hand.

If you believe that.

And for those that were holding your hand up, I would ask you if

it was trending higher or lower.

And obviously we were, we would reduce that down to a smaller group.

How would I ask you all by showing up your hand, would this be

considered a reversal market profile?

And you'd all raise your hand if that's what you agreed.

And finally, the last one, I would ask everyone if this would be a

consolidation or a range-bound, and obviously I would expect

everyone's hand to be up on this one.

And that would be, uh, the allocation for the market profile.

I would say this isn't.

So with the weekly dollar.

Being in this range, what makes it a range?

The fact that it has not significantly moved away from any historical lows

in recent time, he says outside of their scope of reference three to

six months, but I want you to look at this low here, because even though

it's just outside that we had this low here, which is comparable to that.

So it's not that much of a difference in terms of the range it's maintained this

range longer than three to six months, we went below it here, but has yet to show

any willingness to continue going on.

That's the reason why every time we trade into an old high or an old low, you do

not know with a great deal of certainty.

If that break below an old, low or break above and OHI is

going to be a valid breakout.

That's why we do not look at consolidations with breakout ideas.

Okay.

When I first started trading, uh, the concept was look for

consolidations and then wait for a breakout and then trading that to.

I tried that and many times lost a lot of money and frustrated.

So what I learned when I saw that turtle soup pattern in street smarts book.

Yeah.

I fell in love with it because that made perfect sense to me.

There's more false breakouts than there are valid breakouts.

So if we see consolidations on a weekly or monthly chart, we have to

wait for a valid displacement from that range, for instance, If we had

broken this low and this low with a lot more movement lower than what

we've seen here, because we don't see much of a movement lower in this move.

We only went down just a little bit below it and I'm gonna put a horizontal line so

you can see the difference between that.

And we're gonna take a huge step forward.

Once we outline this and you'll know exactly what Marcus

you should be looking for.

So here's the old low in the last three, six months.

So we have this low.

It went below this low and then quickly returned back inside the range.

That's not good.

That's not a valid breakout.

That's maintaining a trading range or consolidation.

So if we know that the market is in a consolidation, the first

thing we want to do is try not to be looking for swing trades.

Okay.

That would be a sell below this low.

That's not what we're looking for.

Okay.

It has to show a significant difference.

When we look at the yang, you'll see what I mean by that.

But in contrast, just know that this is a consolidation because

it's having a difficult time making higher highs and lower lows.

When it takes out an old, low, it returns inside of the range.

That's a consolidation.

It takes out an old high and trades back down into the

range that's in consolidation.

It's this, that simple.

Now when it's trending, it continuously makes higher highs and lower I'm

sorry, higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend and lower.

And lower highs for down trends.

You're going to be looking at, like I said, in the first teaching re

referencing the professional accumulation to distribution patterns, the banking

perspective, every down candle should be supporting price or new buying should

come in or every up candle should be seen with selling or lower prices.

It should be resistant for up candles and support for down candles.

If you see that in price action.

You're actually seeing the institutional order flow.

That's pushing price.

What we're focusing on is just, are we in a market that is predisposed to

trend one direction over the other.

Now, if we were to ask by way of a survey, if the dollar index is bullish,

every foreign currency should go.

And start trending.

In other words, if the, if the dollar starts trending, bullishly higher,

every foreign currency should be in strong bear markets then no, that's

not true because some markets, they may stay in consolidation.

So my question is, before we start looking in this discipline of trading

to look for swing trades, we have.

Identify which markets or asset classes or in this case, when we're talking

about Forex, which pairs or currencies have the likelihood or the probabilities

of moving in a trending environment.

Also, if we can take that same analogy and just reverse it, let's say that the dollar

index is held in consolidation, which I believe that's what we're seeing now.

Which payer or currency is allowed to move.

Now, when that, when that dollar is being held in consolidation, that's the

other equation that you have to look at?

So it's not just simply a to B equals C okay.

Or dollar bullishness in a trend equals all the foreign currencies in a downward.

That doesn't equate to that.

And that's what causes this business or this asset class, a great deal of

difficulty traders come in and they think it's naturally going to be

well, if this is death in the outcome should be that for the other markets.

And it's not always the case.

That's why, um, those that have a disagreement with me in relationships too,

um, correlation, they say correlation of.

Correlation absolutely works, but you have to know how to look for it and

find the evidence is of it in price.

So yes, there's cracks and correlation, and that's how we find the SMT diversions.

That's how we know that there's professional buyer distribution.

But before you go into all those things, you have to determine where the stage is.

What's the stage of the marketplace.

Are we predisposed to move or we predisposed sustain.

And think about like this.

If our swing trading model is heavily slanted to directional bias trading,

in other words, the direction it has to be going higher or lower

clearly, why do we focus on that?

What makes it so significant that that's what we're looking for, because

if the market's being pushed one sided and we can see the evidence of

it on a higher timeframe, we know we have large flows or big banks for.

Institutions or large funds behind that move.

That means it's going to be a lot of buying, not just a little bit

of buying or a lot of selling, not just a little bit of selling.

So that big elephant in that children's pool analogy I used in the market

maker discussions, that displacement is evidence that we have big money,

it work, and that's what we need.

We need to see that in our trades.

So in contrast, when we look through the weekly charts we look for not this.

We're looking for the pattern of willingness to move around.

Is it, is it staying inside of a defined range like this,

or is it making nice swings?

You're not looking for just trends.

Okay.

You're looking for the ability to move outside of the ranges and create

new ranges because inside there's new price swings, making lower

lows or higher highs in reference to when an old range would be.

For instance, if we were to broke down considerably lower than this one, like

this low here, if we went much lower than.

Okay, then we would expect, if it came back to this level, then we could see

some resistance and then maybe another price like lower, but because it only just

went down below it just by a little bit that, and then returned back to the range.

Now that's not good.

That's not good for swing trading.

So in disciplines, less than swing trading, this would be a good market

for short-term trading and day trading.

But for swinging, you can't use the Euro dollar.

You have to go to another.

So let's move over to the pound dollar weekly.

Okay.

And we have a pair here that has in the last three to six months in

contrast, let's take a brief look at the Euro, look at the Euro.

Okay.

And that remember for those that have been following along,

even in August and during.

Free sessions.

I told everyone that the Euro dollar is going to probably stay in a

defined trading range for a long time.

And it could go for months, look where we're at or February that's six months.

It stayed in a trading range and gone anywhere.

It's just meandering around.

That's why I have been so aggressive about the Euro dollar, because the

money's not in Euro dollar right now.

Okay.

So let's go over to.

Pound dollar and look at the last three to six months for this pair.

It's real simple.

It's not like a whole lot of indicators and stuff.

You've just taken your, your chart and not getting too crazy.

Michael Good grief.

Okay.

So my question to you is, is this pair on a weekly chart?

Is this an, a consolidate.

No, it's in a trending environment.

Now there are smaller consolidations like this one and the one we're

in presently right now, and this one here prior to moving, but

it's a lot of motion in this pair.

Lots of, a lot more movement in this pair than that, of

what we saw in the Eurodollar.

Okay.

If we're going to be looking for swing trades, we're more apt to

finding a swing trade and the pounds.

Versus the Euro, the Euro is being held in consolidation.

And personally, I'll just add this as a note.

I think the reason why the year was being held in consolidations, because there's

a lot of issues with the European union.

There's been discussions about the Brexit, whether they're going to permit it or not.

Um, you know, resistance is going to be on, on the part of the European

union in regards to all those ideas.

So, uh, and there's other countries that are considering the same thing.

They're not just limiting it to just the UK.

We're looking at a market.

That's true.

Now here's the important thing.

Yes.

When a pair shows strong indications like this, it's, it's

moving, not staying in ranges.

It's actually moving one direction.

The first thought process is, okay, this has a willingness to keep going lower.

We do not try to pick bottoms.

Okay.

So we're going to always look for evidences to look, to sell short.

And a pair like this because it's moving lower.

It's making very strong strides, lower every time it moves aggressively.

And it's a big displacement.

Is it on the upside or on the downside?

Clearly it's on the downside.

It's lower here aggressively after moving in small consolidation, big move lower

after moving in a small consolidation, small open solidation, big moves, lower.

So all the big ranges are the black hand.

The big price swings are all on the downside.

So this market, or this payer particularly is heavily distributed.

It's not being aggressively bought.

So we have on a weekly chart, we have equal loads down here also.

Okay.

So when there is a big, large liquidity pool risk thing right below there,

and we know we have this level up here in terms of closing in this.

And we have a short-term high that's yet to violate.

So we know have biceps above here, bearish or block begins on

this series of three candles up.

So we have the liquidity pool resting above 28, 34, thereabouts.

And then we have the lows down here with a sell side liquidity pool and.

It doesn't require you to, um, take trades only on the sell side.

Now the best scenario would be to look for shorts on, on swing trades.

Yes, but now think about this, if you were trading.

Okay.

And you were trading short only on this pair, you would never

see these little moves here or in here or the most recent one.

Because you're focusing only primarily on the downside and that's what you should

do initially, when you grow in your understanding about what you're learning

in this mentorship, you will see counter trend, swing trades, and that's going

to be part of the specific patterns.

There's going to be a section in the bullish and embarrass

pattern for this teaching.

I'm going to apply.

I'm going to give you two of them that I use.

That's countertrend in the conditions that I use when I want to treat.

The long-term trend like this year, what would be, um, what was the rules

for buying in the market like this?

Okay, I'll give you those, but you want to focus primarily looking at only shorts

because this is being heavily distributed.

Now, if we were looking at this pair and we see, okay, this pair

shows a willingness to go lower while the same time do Euro dollar.

Isn't consolidation.

I want you to think about what that means for Euro pound.

'cause we're gonna talk a lot about what makes Europan mood this month.

If we have the pound dollar moving lower on weekly, and it's having a

profile, that's not maintaining a range it's in training environment.

While the Euro dollar is in consolidation, it's going to have a

direct impact on how the Euro pounds.

And if the Euro pound is based on what we see in Euro and cable or British pound,

by having this outline, we'll know where the biggest price moves are in directional

bias for that payer Euro pound.

So that also will filter out all of your other trades.

For instance, short-term trades and day trades.

You'll be able to focus more heavily on one side of that market or that.

All the dollar.

If we were looking at this pair

last three, six months, if I were to ask you if this was a trending market

consolidation or reversal, hopefully you would all say that this is any

consolidation is having a difficult time.

Trading above this high, let alone these equal highs, or I

think it really wants to go.

Then we have this low down here it's been held in consolidation.

Okay.

So all the dollar on the weekly chart also has no displacement

of any significant magnitude.

For instance, we have not shamed.

We've not seen any price rallies that make any move outside of the.

And we've not seen any declines to take us out of this range.

So this payer is in a state of neutrality.

It can't, it can't find its way yet.

It's being held in consolidation.

Now I taught in a market maker concepts that the market maker

itself, their business is to hold a currency in a predefined

range and allow other currencies.

Move and allow the displacement to take place there that will affect, and it

can do this by having control over the, the majors, which is all dollar base.

This is the reason why I teach dollar based currencies.

Not only because I get tax treatment, that's favorable for me in the U S

because I trade dollar base pairs, but by understanding every dollar

base pair or the majors you'll know what all these exotic pairs are

doing, even though I don't trade them.

And I try not to instill the idea that you should passionately try to do it, because

if you can't make money in the majors, then you don't know what you're doing.

It's more consistent.

It's easy to see the setups against the dollar when you compound it.

And we will teach this stuff in the mentorship, but when you compound these

ideas, okay, for instance, look, we have here, we have the Aussie dollar.

Okay.

Or the Australian dollar is being kept in a range.

So is.

But look at this, we have the pound moving, not in a consolidation,

but it's any trending environment.

What do you think that would mean for a pair that would couple

pound and Australian dollar?

What would that, do I want you to think about that?

I'm going to expect you to know right now if you're new

or if you never considered it.

But I want you to think about these are all homework assignments for

you to go in and look at what price has done relative to these ideas.

For the Aussie dollar.

This is another pair that is not favorable for high probability swings.

It doesn't mean you can't take short-term trades.

It just means that it's not highly favorable for swing

trades, New Zealand dollar.

Look at this pair here.

If we look at this pair over the last three to six weeks.

Is this pair in a consolidation, reversal or trending it's in a state of.

Trending, it's going higher.

It's making higher highs and higher lows.

We have an intermediate term high formed here, but we have

since resumed going higher.

So my question is, would this be a pair that you could be

favorably hunting swing trades?

Absolutely because it's not having a difficult time moving above.

Okay.

And it's staying one side.

You can see that it's making it.

It's finding support all down.

Candles are finding support and it's breaking through all the up

candles that makes short-term highs.

Every time that's occurring, it's showing institutional order

or institutional order flow.

Rather it's giving you the, the bias that this pair wants to trade higher.

It can't, it can't be argued that if you look at something like this versus the

year, Or New Zealand versus the Australian or even New Zealand with the pound.

Now think about what this does.

Imagine the relationship between the British pound and in New Zealand

dollar, what elements would you expect to see in price action?

If you combine this profile with that profile?

What would you expect to see in price action?

And how would that relate to swing trading?

Would you expect moves?

That would be significant.

Would you expect small ranges or a consolidation?

These are all homework assignments.

I want you to take a look at your, your, your study using these ideas,

but I'm highlighting the importance of looking at the weekly chart first.

And again, you're going to do this with a monthly.

On the Canadian dollar going to do the same thing,

a little too aggressive here, Michael.

Okay.

Now the Canadian dollar versus the.

Is this any consolidation trending or reversal it's in a consolidation as well.

It could be reversal.

It could be seen some measure of risk reversal up in here.

We don't know yet, but right now, overall easiest one they

reach for is consolidation.

If it's, if you have to think about it, if you have to weigh out

whether or not it's trending or not.

Probably not.

It's either jumps off the chart at you three to six months.

Is that moving in a predefined range or is it trending if it's trending,

then you know that this market is being accumulated or distributed.

Okay.

If it's moving higher, buyers are really buying it up.

If it's moving lower, they're really distributing or selling it.

So if we know.

That we have a consolidation in this payer.

We have consolidation in Europe.

We have consolidation in Aussie, but we have trending environments with the pound.

We have trending environments with the New Zealand.

Okay.

So we already know that New Zealand and Pam, those pairs coupled with other payers

should have nice swing trading models, but we're focusing primarily on the dollar.

So what I'm saying here is swing trading for dollar based currencies

are best suited in New Zealand dollar and pound dollar, right?

As indicated by the weekly chart, we're going to skip over a Yan.

We're gonna go to the dollar Swiss first and I shouldn't have to

draw this on here, but I'm going to do it for completeness sake.

You can see that we have the Swifty against the dollar.

It has.

Also maintained a distinct range.

It's consolidating on the weekly chart.

Now I there's something of, you're probably looking

at this thinking yourself.

Oh, okay.

Michael, this is a weekly chart and you could be a swing

trader on a lower timeframe.

Well, that's not how I define a swing trade.

I need for a Swain tray.

I need the weekly chart to support the idea because then I have a great deal.

More magnets.

Expected, I don't have a step.

I don't have just a daily chart.

For instance, you suggesting it's going to go higher or lower.

I have a weekly and a monthly chart.

And if these timeframes indicate that the market is really wanting to go higher,

or there should be support level and therefore it should be chore, a higher PDA

that will be above the marketplace, like a bear shorter block or an old high that

should draw a price up there, get them trading off of a monthly and weekly chart.

But if I don't see the profile that is supportive of a swing trading

idea in that pair, there may be a trade to set up that it comes to

fruition and I just didn't see it.

And I'm okay with that.

But you're going to see if you go through the charts like this, you

can't miss the big moves did this.

Can't hide from it.

It is impossible for it to hide from you because you're limiting

your scope to only the markets that are really being pushed around.

And not every currency is going to move in concert in contrary

direction to what the dollar does.

It may stay in a consolidation while the dollar goes higher.

When it should be going lower or vice versa.

If the dollar is going, uh, lower than the foreign currencies, all should go higher.

That's the general idea or theme, but it doesn't always mean.

And the way you avoid getting caught up buying duds.

Okay.

Or selling markets.

It won't go lower.

If you start here, you look in the marketplace on the hard timeframes

and see are they in consolidation?

Because they're, if they're being held in consolidation, there's a reason there's

no interest in buying and selling it.

Otherwise large funds would be pouring into them.

So we have another consolidation here on swissy and I'm

going to go to the Japanese.

Okay.

In the last three to six months.

Okay.

Has the yen versus the dollar, has this pair been any consolidation,

reversal, or is it in a trending.

Clearly it's been in a trending environment to now

think about what this does.

We've highlighted the markets that have the largest degree of displacement.

It's clearly discernible.

We're looking at a weekly chart here.

Okay.

Once you do this or the weekly chart, you can just quickly,

easily toggle out to a month.

I just like seeing it on a weekly chart version, you can just see the same

thing being displayed on a monthly.

So we have displacement in here.

Okay.

The idea is we have the market wanting to go out of the consolidation.

Now, when we say, why am I saying three to six?

Because in the last three months, there's going to be consolidation.

Why, what are we looking at?

What are we looking there?

Why did I say three months?

What's that?

What's the significance behind three to six months?

Well, six months away from today.

That's about how far back I want to use for determining what the

probable direction is going forward.

When we use, if the data ranges, we look back the last 60 trading days.

Okay.

That's basically incorporating the last three months, even

though it's not 90 days.

Okay.

Looking back in the last 60 days, you'll be able to see where the

liquidity pools are and what APTA data ranges would be most likely targeted.

What liquidity pools, what voids need to be filled, what all highs

need to be violated or retail.

all those ideas and what breakers above and below the marketplace, all these

ideas, you're going to still use them on the monthly and weekly timeframe.

But when we look back for three, the last three months, okay.

What that will help you do is it'll frame the, not as high as probability that

you would see if you look back to the last six months, like this is the range

I'd like to see, but if we go back just three months to say it's like, Okay.

That's still indicating a swing or trending model, but if you go back

into the other payers, like the, all the, say, we cut that in half here.

It still shows us what consolidation.

So by looking at the last three months, are we in consolidate?

We have it's left at three months consolidation.

We may be on the move and we have to watch it and see if it

breaks out above an old high.

We don't want to see a tree back into the range.

We want to see it.

Keep on finding new buying net.

Good.

That will give us the swing trading setup.

We'll wait for a scenario to transpire on a daily chart, and then we'll take action.

You'll look at the dollar yen.

Okay.

If we go back and say, this is looking back to three.

We have this range in here.

Okay.

We dropped down into a daily timeframe.

There's a couple swing trades in this, in this pair.

They're in there in this chart.

Okay.

You have one disorder block it, trades down into it and here closes in the rain.

There's a swing trade right there.

Now I know what you're thinking, but Michael, I want to buy down here.

Well, there's other patterns and techniques that we use for that, but this

model for swing trading, we're looking for things that are already in alignment.

We already have indications that the market wants to go higher.

This pair is under a trending profile on the weekly chart.

It's wanting to go higher.

We already identified that the monthly and weekly has a

bearish order block, which is.

Which is what it reached for.

Okay.

This buy in here is a swing tree because it retraces back down and it has yet to

fulfill its hard timeframe, objective or trade to its monthly and weekly PDA.

This is a swing trade.

The duration is two weeks or longer.

This is a daily chart and you can see that transplant.

You're not going to get a million swing trades, but you're going to

get ones that give you really high probability setups and low risk.

And you're gonna get instant feedback.

You're going to get it right away, where they're at, why there should

be sensitivity at that level.

What direction should you be focusing on?

And in between all this you'll do short-term trades.

And when short term trades are in between setups, you'll do dangerous.

Or you won't do J trades if you're not a day trader, but in between

long-term position trades, you'll do swing trades, short-term trades

and day trades, if you're okay.

And for those that are action hounds, you'll scalp, while all these things are

going on, all of this stuff will mesh, but you have to take a step back and say,

okay, how many, how many times can you buy in here on a swing trading model?

This is the classic scenario.

Because you have an unfulfilled objective and there was nothing up

here that would indicate willingness to go lower the buy on order, block

the back of the notes on your notes for, uh, um, institutional order flow.

And you'll see that we should be finding support at every down candle.

We see.

Was there buying?

Yes.

And it quickly moves away.

Did it take out the candles?

It does here on this candle.

Okay.

Well what can I do?

What can I do next?

Well, you have all these three candles here.

This is now all one or shorter block down, down, down after this big move.

They've taken out this four blocks high.

Okay.

So it means you can be a buyer when the trades back down into this

three bar formation, it's this one.

Series of three down candles or bullshitter shorter block because

smart money's buying in a down move.

You split that range in half.

That's your mean threshold at the mean threshold and above to the high that's

where you're looking to buy anywhere in.

And here's your return back to it there.

Now you're looking for institutional levels in.

The frame and entry.

So you can be a buyer here where you can buy, be a buyer here.

That's it.

There's no other swing trades.

This pair has no of a swing trade setups.

Outside of those two, there are short term trades.

There are nature aids, but that's it.

There's no other swing trades.

Now you're looking at this and thinking, but this is chasing price, Michael,

this is, this is buying near the highs.

No, this is buying in the middle of an unfulfilled range.

You got to look at the monthly.

You got to understand that this muffin weekly chart had reasons as we

discouraged disclosing the mentorship.

We're good to go up to those levels on the monthly and weekly chart for a dollar yen.

So while this would be looked at buying near the high, if you're just looking

at a daily chart, yeah, it will be true.

But the weekly chart.

Had this range back here, the clothes in this last up candle bear,

shorter block we avoid in here.

Fair guy.

You got all, those were unfulfilled and price needs to go higher.

Once it closed in that range here to wick to the open that's when you

had some retracement of any measure.

So when you see.

In these hard timeframe, consolidations, that means they're somewhere a payer

that is in a training environment.

And there's going to be times when the dollars trending all the other currencies

are going to be trending and maybe one or two will be in health and salvation that

in itself, as we'll talk about in less than three we'll present opportunity.

Remember the market makers will hold payers and consolidation and let other

pairs rally to manipulate the majors.

And by manipulating the majors, that's how they control the crosses like Euro

pound, Euro, Japanese yen, pound yen, or these exotic like, uh, I don't even know.

I don't trade them so much.

I couldn't think of the top of my head what they would be, but, uh,

well, all the, again, that's a pair I don't like to trade either, but I know

there's a lot of people out there.

I just don't trade it.

But nonetheless, um, in summary, the dollar index on the weekly chart,

if we look at what we see here on the last three, six months for this

pair, if you take a look at the last three to six months for this one,

has the dollar index been in a consolidate.

Or a training environment, training environment.

So if we see the market making higher highs and higher lows, we're in

retracement here could be reversal, but we are looking at a trending environment.

Nonetheless, it's not having a difficult time moving outside of the S it's,

uh, small consolidations in ranges.

So it's me and willingness to go higher.

Contrast that with Euro, you can consolidate.

Couple that with the dollar index it's bullish on dollar.

So we should be what can't really swing trade Euro, but there's a preview.

This means that you can be a short-term trader on Euro dollar, and you

could be looking to do what with it.

You could sell it because you have up movement in dollar index while

the Euro dollar isn't consolidation.

So it's underlying strength in the dollar.

Which would be weakness on the part of the Euro dollar.

So, and that's why you see, even though in this large consolidation, every

big, significant move has always been on a black candle statement down and

very little, and it takes a lot of time for this pair to trade higher.

So in summary, I want you to think like this, this is some homework

for you today, and it won't take you beyond today to do it.

I want you to look at the.

The relationship to the payers that we've outlined at our in trending

environments on the weekly chart.

Couple that with the payers or currencies that are in consolidation

and go through the last three to six months and share on the forum, your

observations about what setups, if at all occurred on a swing trading

basis, that means you can't drop them.

Below a daily chart don't do anything less than a daily chart.

Cause we haven't started talking about entry patterns, I think for four

hour yet, but make some observations about what you see in relationship

to this pattern or viewpoint, because this is what you want to look for.

Um, as, okay.

I'll just say it like this as a fund trader, this is one

of the filtering processes.

They look for pairs that have a willingness to want to move.

Okay.

I don't need moving averages.

Moving averages were a crutch for those in the free, free tutorial stuff.

But all you're doing is you're looking for the evidence that the market is in

consolidation or that it's trending.

If it's trending, it's obvious.

If it's not obvious, it's consulted.

If it's in consolidation, anticipate reversal, but wait for the consistent, uh,

the confirmation that it's already moved out and because of the long-term chart,

we don't care that we're waiting for it to breakout and give a confirmation.

If you go back to the, uh, yen, we got here to it again,

go down to a daily chart.

The newer trader or the less experienced trader in our group that would be

looking at this saying, okay, well, if I bought here, that's really not that

exciting because I want to buy here.

Okay.

Or I want to be buying down here.

That's other setups as other scenarios.

That's other conditions.

Okay.

Swing trading is highest probable direction.

When the buying should be occurring, you're buying.

The drawdown is very little it's timeliness is impactful.

It means you get immediate feedback.

If it's a strong Swain trade and you have these conditions, you will not

sit around waiting for profitability.

It will move in your favor instantly because more money is going to be piled

in behind that level than just you.

You're not, you're not even on the radar screen.

So if we see these conditions like this and you.

Okay.

If you bought anywhere in this area here, we'll just say we, we used about

the middle point of that, that candle.

That would be a low, the close comes in at 1 11 67, opening this

1, 12 66, civil to say 12, we went along at one 12 big figure.

Okay.

Once, while big figure what good grief over here at the high you're

already at 200 plus pips, 286.

I already told you that that's the scenario you're

looking for 200 to 500 pips.

That's what this that's what these setups give you.

You don't need a lot of them over the, over the course of a year.

Every pair is going to give you something.

If you wait.

It will be there, but it's not going to be every single time.

There's a set up basis to the dollar.

There's going to be some give and take.

And that's why you want to have to go through all the majors.

Okay.

Like this.

And you're going to find setups.

If you hold onto this thing for two weeks, this is a, this will be the

day the entering or this day here.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, thereabouts.

That's two weeks.

Think about it, folks, this model is not an everyday sin situation.

It's a high probability swing trading model.

That means you're looking for the highest probable direction to trade

where, you know, the institutional sponsorship will be behind your idea.

And guess what if it takes this Orbach?

And you get stopped out.

You get immediate feedback.

That means you have to do what you have to drop back to a weekly idea.

Go back to APDA on the weekly chart because the daily broke down.

So where's the next level and the weekly chart to look for support.

If that gives way, well, we probably reversed and then we'll

wait for a rally up and then we'll sell into a bear shorter block.

You'll see that.

There's no reason to fear taking a loss.

Everything will be systematic.

It's.

But don't think that you have to have the lowest low and the

highest high in swing training.

You're getting the meat in between.

That's all you're doing.

You're getting that lion's portion of the flesh and that's all you need.

If you just did this a couple of times a year, you'll be blown away.

Every expectation you're ahead for trading because you're

being able to do more with less.

And that's what really trading is.

You want to be doing very little risk, very little trading, but having

huge profitability or probability in.

And this model is going to help you do that.

So we're going to be using a lot of the things we talked about

in the higher timeframe, macro analysis, to frame the ideas, using

what we just disclosed here also.

And it'll build very specific ideas about swing trading and you'll know

exactly when you should be swing trading.

And if it's not there, don't worry about it.

Don't push it off for.

This wait for, when we start going into short-term trading, then you'll know what

you should be doing there because you have a lot more trade setups with the short

term trading, because you have one every single week, every single week, and every,

I want to get into the day trading stuff.

There is a trade, every single trading day.

If you're a day trader, when you use the model that we teach, and

it's always going to compliment the things that we're teaching here, just

like this is going to compliment the teaching you have for macro analysis.

Every discipline is supportment to the one.

We just didn't.

It.

Swing trading is going to be subordinate to what we learned in January.

And then short-term trade is going to be subordinate to what we teach here in

swing trading, because in-between swings.

They're smaller swings because price is fractal.

So in-between this buying opportunity in this high, we can only really

see two favorable entries.

This one, and this one, apart from that.

There's no swing trading entries based on my rules, but there is

one to two more short term trading.

And in day trading, you got every up candle in here as a potential by so

you'll know how immediately, no matter what asset class, whether it's a metal

of a commodity, a bond, if it's a currency, a stock, it does not matter.

You're immediately in, in less than 10 minutes using every timeframe from monthly

down to, uh, a four hour timeframe.

Or if you're going to be day trader down to a 15 minute timeframe, you'll

know how to slice and dice that chart and be able to frame out whatever

type of trader you want to be.

And you'll know where the next move is going to be in relationship to that.

Is it poised to move as swing trade if it's not?

Okay, no problem.

Let me drop down to a short term trade.

If there's something there, I'll take it.

If it's not okay, where's it at in reference to.

And I say that because it's not to say that like the Euro is in a consolidation,

so therefore don't trade Euro.

No, no, no, it's not.

I'm not saying that.

I'm just saying in terms of a swing trade, you can't use that pair right

now because it doesn't have the willingness to want to move yet.

It will.

And when it moves, it's going to move a lot because it's

being held in consolidation.

And when this thing blows out, whether higher or lower land, we're going to

have a lot of opportunities in this thing because they been holding it for me.

Look at what he did here.

We're here.

It's been a consolidation and a move.

Huge move.

We're going to see another one of that.

Okay.

It's this winding up.

Just wait for it.

Don't force it.

Do not try to push yourself into a trade just because it can't give you a

swing trade in the Euro dollar doesn't mean you can't take short-term trades.

Look at w I mean, we've been talking about the Euro dollar going higher.

You could be a day trader in a year, a dollar.

Okay.

So there's plenty of opportunities.

There's always ways to make money, but I have to give you the mindset for each

individual discipline of trading for that month and not show you other timeframes

because it will more you're life.

You don't want to be focusing on all that stuff.

And you'll see, as we go through each one, compliments the next and you'll have

a complete view of how the marketplace works, what drives price and how the

find, the opportunities just like that.

It won't take, but just a few minutes in any timeframe you'll know right

away what you should be doing, but we start on a higher timeframe to

frame out where is the large flows?

Because if they're going to be a lot of money pouring in behind a buying

opportunity, you'll see it on the.

If it's not going to be there and it's gonna be in consolidation, no problem.

Go to the next pairs and you can quickly see how the contrast between

the New Zealand dollar and the yen.

They were paramount across the board over the last three, six months, because

they were unwilling to stay in a range.

They were pushed out, they were driven, and if they drive one direction over

the other, while other markets are being held in consolidation, that tells you

where the money is, they're buying up.

And they're buying up.

Oh, I'm sorry.

They're selling in.

And they're buying up Keely and you can see it Dolly again, rallied at

means the Japanese Yen's declining and you can go into a future starting.

You have to see that too.

But the point is, before we get into the million dollar swing trade set up, you

have to have this understanding, knowing that the market that is poised to have.

Movement behind it.

This is how the fun started.

This is their first filtering process.

Is there a displacement that pushes the market one side over the other?

If there is it's evidence on the hard timeframe and if it's not,

they won't go into that market.

They're going to go into the ones that have a willingness to move

and look what happened in the end.

Look how many pips this thing has moved.

I mean, we had a high.

And this thing almost moved, uh, like 2000 pips, almost 2000 pips.

That's a lot in relationship to that of say a Aussie dollar, a

little wimpy, 600 pips in your.

Like 900 pips, something like that on the downside, something close to that.

And then you had the pound dollar, we're had thousands of pips,

New Zealand,

that thousand pips.

So, which pair are you going to trade as a swing trader?

Are you gonna be looking for pairs that are in consolidation or ones

that are making clear discernible patterns higher in an uptrend and keep

breaking old highs and supporting for?

I said old down candles, that means you see institutional order flow.

It means the funds are pouring money in every time they do this more buying,

it's going to take place reverse.

Every time that there was an up candle in the, uh, British pound up in here, right?

For the down mood, they returned back to the here on this spike

up here, and it rallied lower.

Everything that we look for for PDAs you use on these timeframes, but you

start with filtering out whether the market is wanting to move in a trend or.

If it's in consolidation notice I didn't pull any trend lines up.

I didn't pull up any kind of moving averages.

I didn't put any kind of indicators.

All we're looking for is a simple profile and it's simple.

I can put my nine-year-old right in front of the chart and ask him which one's

going sideways and which one's moving up or down and he'll be able to do it.

So think about it.

If you ever struggle, if you have a small child, take them to your computer and

say, okay, inside this box, would you say this is going up down or go inside?

And the answer they give you, that's it.

This is that simple.

And just look at the pair, study them.

Okay.

And look at the relationships between other currencies that they're paired

with every available currency pair.

And look at what's happened over the last three to six

months in relationship to that.

And again, I'm not trying to convince you or talk you into doing a major.

Across as like a pound yen or all the, and I'm not trying to do that,

but I just want you to see how, even though I don't, as your mentor trade

those pairs, you made like to do that.

And there's many opportunities throughout the year that you'll be able to trade

those and I'll give you a rules for it.

But for me, I just don't get the, I don't get the tax treatment trading them.

So it's not worth the extra step because you got to do the

analysis twice when you trade this.

Which to me it's not that big of a deal, but to me, I just like looking

at a dollar index and then looking at the dollar crosses, and then it's done.

I need to know I have a trader.

I don't have one, but as far as swing trading, this is it.

This is your first stepping stone.

This is what you do.

You look for this, and this will frame out what pairs are really ideal

for you to trade as a swing trade.

If it doesn't fit this criteria, it's not a swing trade.

It's just that simple.

You got to go to a lower timeframe.

Discipline.

That means short-term.

Or day trading for scalp.

It plenty of scalps in Europe, plenty of day trades in Europe.

And there's a couple short term trades in there, not in swing trading.

So I'm going to close it here.

Wish you all a very pleasant afternoon.

And again, I'm going to be looking for, uh, as may or S Q a.

If you could please create a.

In our forum for this lesson today.

Uh, just title it as a, um, what would we title it?

Higher timeframe swinging.

Model confirmation.

We'll just do it like that or something to that effect.

And then you guys can, uh, post your observations there and there's, some of

you are just going to wait and see what everybody else does and then look and see

what they did and then come to agreement or disagreement about it, but do the work.

Okay.

Really?

When we do these individual.

The disciplines each month for you to learn, I'm going to push you

into a form of investigating it.

I do not want you to take what I show in a PowerPoint slide or a video.

Okay.

And take that as the gospel.

That's not how you're going to learn this.

You're going to appreciate it more when you go in gradually, as I tell

you, look, look for this and you'll see it, look for this and you'll see it.

And when you find it before I start going into greater detail about it,

when my, when I do the teachings, it'll be like, oh yeah, this makes perfect.

I see that.

I know exactly what it's talking about.

And then once you have that, you graduate to a higher level understanding

and a greater appreciation for what you're spending your money on.

Not just your time, that way you'll know by the end of this month,

you'll know exactly what you're looking for as a swing trader.

It will be absolutely certain what you're doing and you'll know when not the trade.

That's the most important lesson.

Don't force a swing trade.

If the conditions aren't there, think about it.

If you're a day trader, you know, to, if I'm a bullish person, I

want to be buying at the open.

Well, why would I want to be selling it?

If I'm bullish, think about it.

It's the same thing.

Don't force a, an opinion or a viewpoint or a discipline of trading

in a condition that doesn't favor it.

If the market's not predisposed to go in a training environment higher or lower.

Try to swing trade.

This is what beats traders up.

Or they get into an idea and they take a swing trade and they get in and you see

initial feedback that looks positive.

They have a little bit of profit and they marry the idea and they're on Facebook.

They're on Forex factory.

They're on all the forums are on Twitter.

I'm going to kill this one.

And all of a sudden they reverse it to them.

And then you don't hear about them.

They go quiet because they got beat up and it turned on them because

it wasn't a favorable market.

Yeah.

This is such an easy filter, but nobody does it.

They don't think this way, but I'm telling you as a large fund trader,

this is the first thing they do.

They look for a training environment filter, or if it's in consolidation,

if it's in consolidation, they can not put money into this until it breaks

out and moves because that's their, that's their, that's their business.

They have to be in involved.

They have to be involved in a training.

Because that's what 95% of all large fund models are.

They're trending.

So if they see this, they're not going to see this as an

opportunity to pour money into it.

They're going to put their money in where it's already moving, because it's

already showing a million to, to run and they want to run with the bulls

for, they want to run with the bears.

They do not want to swim in a small little pond like this.

It ain't going to move there's no, there's no stream.

There's no.

So you have to go where the large funds going to go and just assist

a simple little procedure that no one looks in their charts for,

but this is exactly what goes on.

Then you'll be able to find where all the big money's being pushed

in and where it's going asleep.

So with that guys, I want to wish you good luck, good trading.

And I will see you tomorrow.

We're going to have another session at 9:30 AM and we're gonna be doing

the homework for the New Zealand.

Presentation I did in lesson one for this month.

So until then, folks, I will talk with you all today.

In the afternoon recap, I'll send the charts up and all that

business, but again, tomorrow 9:30 AM Eastern standard time.

New York time.

We'll have another session.

If you haven't done your homework for the New Zealand

portion, please try to do that.

Um, if not, don't watch this video till you do it.

Okay.

No, no, no.

It's, don't watch tomorrow's video until you do that homework.

Good luck training.