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Welcome back folks, welcome
to a new week of trading.
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Um, before we get into it, that's
what, you know, it's going to be a
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short session today and we'll try to
keep the sessions brief because the
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teachings are going to be pretty lengthy.
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So let's keep that in mind.
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I know some of you have an issue with
timeliness about digesting the content,
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but, uh, lucky the majority of the.
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And the teaching.
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So there'll be a
long-winded sessions there.
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I want to introduce a concept
you're going to be referring to in
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lesson three, we're gonna be looking
at a relative strength analysis.
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And some ideas when you use these concepts
and where to apply them, it's just
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kind of like a complimentary teaching.
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Cause I'm just going to briefly mention
it in passing, uh, in less than three.
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So that way I'm not bogging down
that lesson cause there's a lot
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of content for less than three.
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So if I gave you supporting teachings
throughout this week, they will be.
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In, uh, in concert with the same idea
or premise with less than three, because
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otherwise I could create a whole month
of just less than three by itself, I
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guess, in a way it really is, but it's
sub sub lessons or supporting lessons
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to, uh, to drive home to the content.
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Okay.
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So we're going to be looking at K.
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So we're gonna be looking at the
weekly charts first, and we're going
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to just scroll through the Euro,
the pound, all the New Zealand.
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K.
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Japanese yen, Swiss seat
and the dollar index.
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Now not showing any charts
with analysis on it.
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All we're looking at is price action.
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Okay.
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And we're gonna be looking at some
specific viewpoints and things that
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are salient to knowing what the
future price legs may be higher or
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lower, or if there's going to be a
high probability for a swing at all.
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Now, obviously if we were all in the room
together and I asked you all to raise your
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head, And I'm asking this rhetorically.
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So those that are here live,
you don't need to do this.
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The, uh, the folks that look at analysis
and they start looking at trend lines,
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or they look at the Elliott wave or, or
market structure, even, um, some of the
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things that go along with all of those
ideas are generally count the same.
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You're looking for something
to indicate that the market's
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going to move higher or lower.
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What I have learned is that.
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Very few teachers or disciplines of
trading focus on the conditions of
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the marketplace that would arrive
at a probable trade for swing.
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If the markets are predisposed to go
higher or lower, that's one thing.
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Okay.
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But we have to look at a market
that's predisposed to move in general
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because most markets are generally
trying to be maintained in a range.
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Okay.
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And.
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If we start on a higher timeframe, weekly
chart, and it can be done on a month.
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I'm just going to save some time.
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But everything you do here on the weekly,
you just apply it to the monthly as well.
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And we'll have those rules in
less than three that you're
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going to have this month.
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But when we scroll through the,
the weekly charts, this is the
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Euro versus the dollar weekly.
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And what you want to be looking for
is the last three to six months trend.
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Okay.
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Or this basically what's the
price action in the last three to.
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That's all that's necessary.
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You're a swing trader.
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That's the, that's your time horizon.
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You don't look at 15 year charts.
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You don't look at 20 year charts.
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You don't look at one-year charts.
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All you need to know is what's the
last three to six months time horizon.
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What has the market done in
the last three to six months?
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Okay.
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As long as your charts
show that much data.
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Okay.
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You'll know where the next probable
price swing is going to be and
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what it's going to be reaching.
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And it's really just that simple.
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What happens is we start applying a
wave, a B, and C and retracement, this
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and that, and the other thing, and we
start complicating it when it's a simple
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task of looking at where, where have we
been in the last three to six months?
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And where are the liquidity pools?
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Where's the, uh, the PDAs in
reference to the weekly chart.
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And here's the main thing.
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This is what we're focusing on today.
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What market profile are we in?
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For the weekly chart and,
or the monthly chart.
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And some of you sent
me questions, you know?
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W how do you determine
what the market profile is?
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Like?
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What, what stages of analysis, or what
classifications do you use to outline
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that, or frame it as a consolidation
trending, or where your soul, and we're
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going to kind of cover that today.
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So looking at the Eurodollar,
going to take a look at the last.
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Three to six months.
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Okay.
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And we're in February now.
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So
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we're going to go back to here.
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A little bit that far, and I'm going
to ask you, it's pretty, it should be
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obvious if one were to ask everyone
in the room, if I was standing in
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front of you all in a big group, I
say, okay, raise your hand right now.
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If you think in the shaded
area, that is a trending market,
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you'd all raise your hand.
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If you believe that.
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And for those that were holding
your hand up, I would ask you if
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it was trending higher or lower.
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And obviously we were, we would
reduce that down to a smaller group.
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How would I ask you all by showing
up your hand, would this be
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considered a reversal market profile?
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And you'd all raise your hand
if that's what you agreed.
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And finally, the last one, I would
ask everyone if this would be a
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consolidation or a range-bound,
and obviously I would expect
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everyone's hand to be up on this one.
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And that would be, uh, the
allocation for the market profile.
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I would say this isn't.
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So with the weekly dollar.
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Being in this range,
what makes it a range?
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The fact that it has not significantly
moved away from any historical lows
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in recent time, he says outside of
their scope of reference three to
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six months, but I want you to look
at this low here, because even though
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it's just outside that we had this
low here, which is comparable to that.
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So it's not that much of a difference in
terms of the range it's maintained this
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range longer than three to six months, we
went below it here, but has yet to show
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any willingness to continue going on.
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That's the reason why every time we trade
into an old high or an old low, you do
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not know with a great deal of certainty.
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If that break below an old,
low or break above and OHI is
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going to be a valid breakout.
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That's why we do not look at
consolidations with breakout ideas.
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Okay.
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When I first started trading,
uh, the concept was look for
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consolidations and then wait for a
breakout and then trading that to.
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I tried that and many times lost
a lot of money and frustrated.
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So what I learned when I saw that turtle
soup pattern in street smarts book.
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Yeah.
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I fell in love with it because
that made perfect sense to me.
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There's more false breakouts
than there are valid breakouts.
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So if we see consolidations on a
weekly or monthly chart, we have to
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wait for a valid displacement from
that range, for instance, If we had
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broken this low and this low with
a lot more movement lower than what
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we've seen here, because we don't see
much of a movement lower in this move.
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We only went down just a little bit below
it and I'm gonna put a horizontal line so
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you can see the difference between that.
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And we're gonna take a huge step forward.
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Once we outline this and
you'll know exactly what Marcus
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you should be looking for.
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So here's the old low in
the last three, six months.
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So we have this low.
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It went below this low and then
quickly returned back inside the range.
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That's not good.
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That's not a valid breakout.
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That's maintaining a trading
range or consolidation.
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So if we know that the market
is in a consolidation, the first
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thing we want to do is try not
to be looking for swing trades.
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Okay.
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That would be a sell below this low.
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That's not what we're looking for.
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Okay.
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It has to show a significant difference.
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When we look at the yang,
you'll see what I mean by that.
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But in contrast, just know that
this is a consolidation because
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it's having a difficult time
making higher highs and lower lows.
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When it takes out an old, low,
it returns inside of the range.
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That's a consolidation.
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It takes out an old high and
trades back down into the
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range that's in consolidation.
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It's this, that simple.
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Now when it's trending, it continuously
makes higher highs and lower I'm
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sorry, higher highs and higher
lows for an uptrend and lower.
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And lower highs for down trends.
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You're going to be looking at, like
I said, in the first teaching re
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referencing the professional accumulation
to distribution patterns, the banking
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perspective, every down candle should
be supporting price or new buying should
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come in or every up candle should be
seen with selling or lower prices.
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It should be resistant for up
candles and support for down candles.
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If you see that in price action.
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You're actually seeing the
institutional order flow.
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That's pushing price.
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What we're focusing on is just, are
we in a market that is predisposed to
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trend one direction over the other.
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Now, if we were to ask by way of a
survey, if the dollar index is bullish,
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every foreign currency should go.
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And start trending.
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In other words, if the, if the dollar
starts trending, bullishly higher,
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every foreign currency should be in
strong bear markets then no, that's
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not true because some markets,
they may stay in consolidation.
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So my question is, before we start
looking in this discipline of trading
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to look for swing trades, we have.
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Identify which markets or asset classes
or in this case, when we're talking
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about Forex, which pairs or currencies
have the likelihood or the probabilities
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of moving in a trending environment.
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Also, if we can take that same analogy and
just reverse it, let's say that the dollar
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index is held in consolidation, which
I believe that's what we're seeing now.
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Which payer or currency
is allowed to move.
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Now, when that, when that dollar is
being held in consolidation, that's the
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other equation that you have to look at?
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So it's not just simply
a to B equals C okay.
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Or dollar bullishness in a trend equals
all the foreign currencies in a downward.
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That doesn't equate to that.
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And that's what causes this business
or this asset class, a great deal of
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difficulty traders come in and they
think it's naturally going to be
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well, if this is death in the outcome
should be that for the other markets.
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And it's not always the case.
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That's why, um, those that have a
disagreement with me in relationships too,
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um, correlation, they say correlation of.
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Correlation absolutely works, but you
have to know how to look for it and
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find the evidence is of it in price.
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So yes, there's cracks and correlation,
and that's how we find the SMT diversions.
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That's how we know that there's
professional buyer distribution.
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But before you go into all those things,
you have to determine where the stage is.
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What's the stage of the marketplace.
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Are we predisposed to move
or we predisposed sustain.
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And think about like this.
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If our swing trading model is heavily
slanted to directional bias trading,
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in other words, the direction it
has to be going higher or lower
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clearly, why do we focus on that?
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00:12:02,595 --> 00:12:05,775
What makes it so significant that
that's what we're looking for, because
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if the market's being pushed one
sided and we can see the evidence of
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it on a higher timeframe, we know we
have large flows or big banks for.
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Institutions or large
funds behind that move.
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00:12:18,495 --> 00:12:20,745
That means it's going to be a lot
of buying, not just a little bit
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of buying or a lot of selling,
not just a little bit of selling.
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00:12:24,224 --> 00:12:27,974
So that big elephant in that children's
pool analogy I used in the market
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maker discussions, that displacement
is evidence that we have big money,
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it work, and that's what we need.
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We need to see that in our trades.
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So in contrast, when we look through
the weekly charts we look for not this.
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We're looking for the pattern
of willingness to move around.
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Is it, is it staying inside
of a defined range like this,
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or is it making nice swings?
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You're not looking for just trends.
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Okay.
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You're looking for the ability to
move outside of the ranges and create
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new ranges because inside there's
new price swings, making lower
232
00:13:04,275 --> 00:13:07,395
lows or higher highs in reference
to when an old range would be.
233
00:13:07,395 --> 00:13:10,964
For instance, if we were to broke down
considerably lower than this one, like
234
00:13:10,964 --> 00:13:12,795
this low here, if we went much lower than.
235
00:13:13,875 --> 00:13:18,735
Okay, then we would expect, if it came
back to this level, then we could see
236
00:13:18,735 --> 00:13:23,055
some resistance and then maybe another
price like lower, but because it only just
237
00:13:23,055 --> 00:13:27,765
went down below it just by a little bit
that, and then returned back to the range.
238
00:13:28,005 --> 00:13:28,905
Now that's not good.
239
00:13:29,145 --> 00:13:30,465
That's not good for swing trading.
240
00:13:31,005 --> 00:13:36,375
So in disciplines, less than swing
trading, this would be a good market
241
00:13:36,375 --> 00:13:38,085
for short-term trading and day trading.
242
00:13:38,385 --> 00:13:40,725
But for swinging, you
can't use the Euro dollar.
243
00:13:40,965 --> 00:13:41,715
You have to go to another.
244
00:13:42,660 --> 00:13:46,199
So let's move over to
the pound dollar weekly.
245
00:13:47,699 --> 00:13:48,120
Okay.
246
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,370
And we have a pair here that has
in the last three to six months in
247
00:13:53,370 --> 00:13:58,170
contrast, let's take a brief look
at the Euro, look at the Euro.
248
00:13:59,250 --> 00:13:59,550
Okay.
249
00:13:59,550 --> 00:14:03,329
And that remember for those
that have been following along,
250
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,400
even in August and during.
251
00:14:06,209 --> 00:14:07,079
Free sessions.
252
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:10,560
I told everyone that the Euro dollar
is going to probably stay in a
253
00:14:10,560 --> 00:14:12,300
defined trading range for a long time.
254
00:14:12,329 --> 00:14:17,819
And it could go for months, look where
we're at or February that's six months.
255
00:14:17,819 --> 00:14:20,459
It stayed in a trading
range and gone anywhere.
256
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,290
It's just meandering around.
257
00:14:22,829 --> 00:14:27,030
That's why I have been so aggressive
about the Euro dollar, because the
258
00:14:27,030 --> 00:14:28,860
money's not in Euro dollar right now.
259
00:14:29,310 --> 00:14:29,640
Okay.
260
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:30,870
So let's go over to.
261
00:14:31,845 --> 00:14:35,925
Pound dollar and look at the last
three to six months for this pair.
262
00:14:38,535 --> 00:14:39,405
It's real simple.
263
00:14:39,405 --> 00:14:41,235
It's not like a whole lot
of indicators and stuff.
264
00:14:41,235 --> 00:14:47,655
You've just taken your, your
chart and not getting too crazy.
265
00:14:47,655 --> 00:14:48,315
Michael Good grief.
266
00:14:51,115 --> 00:14:51,475
Okay.
267
00:14:51,985 --> 00:14:55,375
So my question to you is, is
this pair on a weekly chart?
268
00:14:56,215 --> 00:14:57,955
Is this an, a consolidate.
269
00:15:02,050 --> 00:15:06,579
No, it's in a trending environment.
270
00:15:07,180 --> 00:15:12,010
Now there are smaller consolidations
like this one and the one we're
271
00:15:12,010 --> 00:15:15,699
in presently right now, and this
one here prior to moving, but
272
00:15:15,699 --> 00:15:18,490
it's a lot of motion in this pair.
273
00:15:18,579 --> 00:15:22,150
Lots of, a lot more movement
in this pair than that, of
274
00:15:22,209 --> 00:15:23,410
what we saw in the Eurodollar.
275
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:24,339
Okay.
276
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,010
If we're going to be looking for
swing trades, we're more apt to
277
00:15:29,010 --> 00:15:32,219
finding a swing trade and the pounds.
278
00:15:33,135 --> 00:15:36,854
Versus the Euro, the Euro is
being held in consolidation.
279
00:15:36,944 --> 00:15:38,415
And personally, I'll
just add this as a note.
280
00:15:38,864 --> 00:15:42,314
I think the reason why the year was being
held in consolidations, because there's
281
00:15:42,314 --> 00:15:44,175
a lot of issues with the European union.
282
00:15:44,714 --> 00:15:49,125
There's been discussions about the Brexit,
whether they're going to permit it or not.
283
00:15:49,545 --> 00:15:52,574
Um, you know, resistance is going to
be on, on the part of the European
284
00:15:52,574 --> 00:15:54,405
union in regards to all those ideas.
285
00:15:54,405 --> 00:15:57,584
So, uh, and there's other countries
that are considering the same thing.
286
00:15:57,584 --> 00:15:59,685
They're not just limiting
it to just the UK.
287
00:16:00,094 --> 00:16:01,064
We're looking at a market.
288
00:16:01,064 --> 00:16:01,395
That's true.
289
00:16:02,415 --> 00:16:03,465
Now here's the important thing.
290
00:16:04,635 --> 00:16:05,355
Yes.
291
00:16:06,045 --> 00:16:09,285
When a pair shows strong
indications like this, it's, it's
292
00:16:09,285 --> 00:16:11,145
moving, not staying in ranges.
293
00:16:11,145 --> 00:16:12,645
It's actually moving one direction.
294
00:16:13,065 --> 00:16:19,305
The first thought process is, okay, this
has a willingness to keep going lower.
295
00:16:19,755 --> 00:16:21,465
We do not try to pick bottoms.
296
00:16:22,155 --> 00:16:22,545
Okay.
297
00:16:22,605 --> 00:16:25,695
So we're going to always look for
evidences to look, to sell short.
298
00:16:26,655 --> 00:16:28,905
And a pair like this
because it's moving lower.
299
00:16:28,905 --> 00:16:33,225
It's making very strong strides, lower
every time it moves aggressively.
300
00:16:33,225 --> 00:16:34,395
And it's a big displacement.
301
00:16:35,085 --> 00:16:37,694
Is it on the upside or on the downside?
302
00:16:38,625 --> 00:16:39,855
Clearly it's on the downside.
303
00:16:39,915 --> 00:16:46,185
It's lower here aggressively after moving
in small consolidation, big move lower
304
00:16:46,185 --> 00:16:50,415
after moving in a small consolidation,
small open solidation, big moves, lower.
305
00:16:50,415 --> 00:16:52,605
So all the big ranges are the black hand.
306
00:16:53,685 --> 00:16:56,385
The big price swings
are all on the downside.
307
00:16:56,655 --> 00:17:01,035
So this market, or this payer
particularly is heavily distributed.
308
00:17:01,155 --> 00:17:03,194
It's not being aggressively bought.
309
00:17:03,854 --> 00:17:06,435
So we have on a weekly chart, we
have equal loads down here also.
310
00:17:07,544 --> 00:17:07,694
Okay.
311
00:17:07,694 --> 00:17:10,575
So when there is a big, large liquidity
pool risk thing right below there,
312
00:17:11,085 --> 00:17:15,345
and we know we have this level up
here in terms of closing in this.
313
00:17:16,754 --> 00:17:18,765
And we have a short-term
high that's yet to violate.
314
00:17:18,765 --> 00:17:23,175
So we know have biceps above
here, bearish or block begins on
315
00:17:23,175 --> 00:17:24,585
this series of three candles up.
316
00:17:25,425 --> 00:17:30,645
So we have the liquidity pool
resting above 28, 34, thereabouts.
317
00:17:31,905 --> 00:17:36,254
And then we have the lows down here
with a sell side liquidity pool and.
318
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:43,020
It doesn't require you to, um,
take trades only on the sell side.
319
00:17:43,050 --> 00:17:46,560
Now the best scenario would be to
look for shorts on, on swing trades.
320
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:51,470
Yes, but now think about
this, if you were trading.
321
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:52,670
Okay.
322
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:57,710
And you were trading short only
on this pair, you would never
323
00:17:57,710 --> 00:18:02,750
see these little moves here or
in here or the most recent one.
324
00:18:04,370 --> 00:18:08,240
Because you're focusing only primarily on
the downside and that's what you should
325
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,530
do initially, when you grow in your
understanding about what you're learning
326
00:18:12,530 --> 00:18:18,110
in this mentorship, you will see counter
trend, swing trades, and that's going
327
00:18:18,110 --> 00:18:20,510
to be part of the specific patterns.
328
00:18:20,630 --> 00:18:22,730
There's going to be a section
in the bullish and embarrass
329
00:18:22,730 --> 00:18:24,530
pattern for this teaching.
330
00:18:26,030 --> 00:18:26,540
I'm going to apply.
331
00:18:26,570 --> 00:18:28,250
I'm going to give you
two of them that I use.
332
00:18:28,250 --> 00:18:31,220
That's countertrend in the conditions
that I use when I want to treat.
333
00:18:32,070 --> 00:18:36,960
The long-term trend like this year,
what would be, um, what was the rules
334
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,150
for buying in the market like this?
335
00:18:39,450 --> 00:18:43,740
Okay, I'll give you those, but you want
to focus primarily looking at only shorts
336
00:18:44,460 --> 00:18:46,200
because this is being heavily distributed.
337
00:18:47,070 --> 00:18:50,880
Now, if we were looking at this
pair and we see, okay, this pair
338
00:18:51,090 --> 00:18:57,060
shows a willingness to go lower
while the same time do Euro dollar.
339
00:18:58,200 --> 00:18:59,340
Isn't consolidation.
340
00:18:59,460 --> 00:19:02,250
I want you to think about what
that means for Euro pound.
341
00:19:04,780 --> 00:19:07,990
'cause we're gonna talk a lot about
what makes Europan mood this month.
342
00:19:08,740 --> 00:19:13,690
If we have the pound dollar moving
lower on weekly, and it's having a
343
00:19:13,690 --> 00:19:18,490
profile, that's not maintaining a
range it's in training environment.
344
00:19:18,879 --> 00:19:23,080
While the Euro dollar is in
consolidation, it's going to have a
345
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,120
direct impact on how the Euro pounds.
346
00:19:26,699 --> 00:19:34,229
And if the Euro pound is based on what we
see in Euro and cable or British pound,
347
00:19:35,159 --> 00:19:40,020
by having this outline, we'll know where
the biggest price moves are in directional
348
00:19:40,020 --> 00:19:42,419
bias for that payer Euro pound.
349
00:19:43,110 --> 00:19:46,620
So that also will filter out
all of your other trades.
350
00:19:46,739 --> 00:19:48,570
For instance, short-term
trades and day trades.
351
00:19:48,810 --> 00:19:51,719
You'll be able to focus more heavily
on one side of that market or that.
352
00:19:54,990 --> 00:19:55,770
All the dollar.
353
00:19:57,030 --> 00:19:58,290
If we were looking at this pair
354
00:20:07,030 --> 00:20:12,670
last three, six months, if I were to
ask you if this was a trending market
355
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,890
consolidation or reversal, hopefully
you would all say that this is any
356
00:20:17,890 --> 00:20:19,840
consolidation is having a difficult time.
357
00:20:20,595 --> 00:20:23,895
Trading above this high, let
alone these equal highs, or I
358
00:20:23,895 --> 00:20:25,275
think it really wants to go.
359
00:20:25,935 --> 00:20:29,085
Then we have this low down here
it's been held in consolidation.
360
00:20:29,805 --> 00:20:30,135
Okay.
361
00:20:30,495 --> 00:20:37,575
So all the dollar on the weekly
chart also has no displacement
362
00:20:37,605 --> 00:20:39,075
of any significant magnitude.
363
00:20:39,075 --> 00:20:41,475
For instance, we have not shamed.
364
00:20:41,535 --> 00:20:46,335
We've not seen any price rallies
that make any move outside of the.
365
00:20:47,159 --> 00:20:50,010
And we've not seen any declines
to take us out of this range.
366
00:20:50,189 --> 00:20:55,169
So this payer is in a state of neutrality.
367
00:20:55,169 --> 00:20:57,120
It can't, it can't find its way yet.
368
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,010
It's being held in consolidation.
369
00:20:59,669 --> 00:21:04,139
Now I taught in a market maker
concepts that the market maker
370
00:21:04,139 --> 00:21:09,960
itself, their business is to
hold a currency in a predefined
371
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,760
range and allow other currencies.
372
00:21:12,780 --> 00:21:17,639
Move and allow the displacement to take
place there that will affect, and it
373
00:21:17,639 --> 00:21:21,629
can do this by having control over the,
the majors, which is all dollar base.
374
00:21:21,639 --> 00:21:23,790
This is the reason why I
teach dollar based currencies.
375
00:21:23,790 --> 00:21:28,560
Not only because I get tax treatment,
that's favorable for me in the U S
376
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:33,419
because I trade dollar base pairs,
but by understanding every dollar
377
00:21:33,419 --> 00:21:37,470
base pair or the majors you'll know
what all these exotic pairs are
378
00:21:37,470 --> 00:21:39,360
doing, even though I don't trade them.
379
00:21:40,215 --> 00:21:44,265
And I try not to instill the idea that you
should passionately try to do it, because
380
00:21:44,265 --> 00:21:46,845
if you can't make money in the majors,
then you don't know what you're doing.
381
00:21:47,445 --> 00:21:48,495
It's more consistent.
382
00:21:48,495 --> 00:21:51,975
It's easy to see the setups against
the dollar when you compound it.
383
00:21:51,975 --> 00:21:55,365
And we will teach this stuff in the
mentorship, but when you compound these
384
00:21:55,365 --> 00:21:59,385
ideas, okay, for instance, look, we
have here, we have the Aussie dollar.
385
00:22:00,495 --> 00:22:00,795
Okay.
386
00:22:00,795 --> 00:22:03,465
Or the Australian dollar
is being kept in a range.
387
00:22:06,025 --> 00:22:06,835
So is.
388
00:22:09,405 --> 00:22:16,274
But look at this, we have the pound
moving, not in a consolidation,
389
00:22:16,304 --> 00:22:17,955
but it's any trending environment.
390
00:22:18,585 --> 00:22:21,284
What do you think that would
mean for a pair that would couple
391
00:22:21,314 --> 00:22:23,235
pound and Australian dollar?
392
00:22:23,835 --> 00:22:26,235
What would that, do I want
you to think about that?
393
00:22:26,235 --> 00:22:27,975
I'm going to expect you to
know right now if you're new
394
00:22:28,185 --> 00:22:29,085
or if you never considered it.
395
00:22:29,085 --> 00:22:31,155
But I want you to think about these
are all homework assignments for
396
00:22:31,155 --> 00:22:35,294
you to go in and look at what price
has done relative to these ideas.
397
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:37,830
For the Aussie dollar.
398
00:22:38,610 --> 00:22:43,320
This is another pair that is not
favorable for high probability swings.
399
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,570
It doesn't mean you can't
take short-term trades.
400
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,620
It just means that it's not
highly favorable for swing
401
00:22:49,620 --> 00:22:53,400
trades, New Zealand dollar.
402
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:54,570
Look at this pair here.
403
00:22:55,890 --> 00:22:58,740
If we look at this pair over
the last three to six weeks.
404
00:23:05,524 --> 00:23:14,555
Is this pair in a consolidation,
reversal or trending it's in a state of.
405
00:23:15,660 --> 00:23:16,800
Trending, it's going higher.
406
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,140
It's making higher highs and higher lows.
407
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,620
We have an intermediate term
high formed here, but we have
408
00:23:22,620 --> 00:23:24,240
since resumed going higher.
409
00:23:24,810 --> 00:23:28,410
So my question is, would this
be a pair that you could be
410
00:23:28,410 --> 00:23:31,890
favorably hunting swing trades?
411
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:39,450
Absolutely because it's not having
a difficult time moving above.
412
00:23:41,145 --> 00:23:41,445
Okay.
413
00:23:41,445 --> 00:23:42,705
And it's staying one side.
414
00:23:43,125 --> 00:23:44,145
You can see that it's making it.
415
00:23:44,534 --> 00:23:45,945
It's finding support all down.
416
00:23:45,945 --> 00:23:50,475
Candles are finding support and
it's breaking through all the up
417
00:23:50,475 --> 00:23:51,794
candles that makes short-term highs.
418
00:23:52,004 --> 00:23:54,375
Every time that's occurring,
it's showing institutional order
419
00:23:55,024 --> 00:23:56,115
or institutional order flow.
420
00:23:56,115 --> 00:24:01,334
Rather it's giving you the, the bias
that this pair wants to trade higher.
421
00:24:02,054 --> 00:24:07,754
It can't, it can't be argued that if you
look at something like this versus the
422
00:24:07,754 --> 00:24:19,175
year, Or New Zealand versus the Australian
or even New Zealand with the pound.
423
00:24:21,105 --> 00:24:22,365
Now think about what this does.
424
00:24:22,665 --> 00:24:26,475
Imagine the relationship between
the British pound and in New Zealand
425
00:24:26,475 --> 00:24:31,575
dollar, what elements would you
expect to see in price action?
426
00:24:31,995 --> 00:24:35,865
If you combine this
profile with that profile?
427
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,940
What would you expect
to see in price action?
428
00:24:40,050 --> 00:24:42,510
And how would that
relate to swing trading?
429
00:24:44,700 --> 00:24:46,110
Would you expect moves?
430
00:24:46,110 --> 00:24:47,159
That would be significant.
431
00:24:47,820 --> 00:24:51,270
Would you expect small
ranges or a consolidation?
432
00:24:52,919 --> 00:24:54,000
These are all homework assignments.
433
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,720
I want you to take a look at your,
your, your study using these ideas,
434
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:02,159
but I'm highlighting the importance
of looking at the weekly chart first.
435
00:25:02,460 --> 00:25:03,570
And again, you're going
to do this with a monthly.
436
00:25:07,495 --> 00:25:10,135
On the Canadian dollar
going to do the same thing,
437
00:25:17,065 --> 00:25:18,445
a little too aggressive here, Michael.
438
00:25:29,155 --> 00:25:29,545
Okay.
439
00:25:29,605 --> 00:25:32,575
Now the Canadian dollar versus the.
440
00:25:34,270 --> 00:25:40,179
Is this any consolidation trending or
reversal it's in a consolidation as well.
441
00:25:40,570 --> 00:25:41,439
It could be reversal.
442
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,199
It could be seen some measure
of risk reversal up in here.
443
00:25:44,290 --> 00:25:47,830
We don't know yet, but right
now, overall easiest one they
444
00:25:47,830 --> 00:25:49,510
reach for is consolidation.
445
00:25:49,870 --> 00:25:52,780
If it's, if you have to think
about it, if you have to weigh out
446
00:25:52,780 --> 00:25:54,100
whether or not it's trending or not.
447
00:25:55,860 --> 00:25:56,550
Probably not.
448
00:25:56,580 --> 00:25:58,860
It's either jumps off the chart
at you three to six months.
449
00:25:58,890 --> 00:26:04,680
Is that moving in a predefined range
or is it trending if it's trending,
450
00:26:05,550 --> 00:26:08,430
then you know that this market is
being accumulated or distributed.
451
00:26:08,910 --> 00:26:09,120
Okay.
452
00:26:09,120 --> 00:26:12,240
If it's moving higher, buyers
are really buying it up.
453
00:26:12,390 --> 00:26:14,730
If it's moving lower, they're
really distributing or selling it.
454
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:16,920
So if we know.
455
00:26:18,585 --> 00:26:20,895
That we have a
consolidation in this payer.
456
00:26:21,165 --> 00:26:22,635
We have consolidation in Europe.
457
00:26:22,665 --> 00:26:26,625
We have consolidation in Aussie, but we
have trending environments with the pound.
458
00:26:26,655 --> 00:26:28,545
We have trending environments
with the New Zealand.
459
00:26:29,475 --> 00:26:29,835
Okay.
460
00:26:30,255 --> 00:26:34,725
So we already know that New Zealand and
Pam, those pairs coupled with other payers
461
00:26:35,055 --> 00:26:39,285
should have nice swing trading models, but
we're focusing primarily on the dollar.
462
00:26:39,285 --> 00:26:42,945
So what I'm saying here is swing
trading for dollar based currencies
463
00:26:43,215 --> 00:26:45,915
are best suited in New Zealand
dollar and pound dollar, right?
464
00:26:46,679 --> 00:26:51,980
As indicated by the weekly chart,
we're going to skip over a Yan.
465
00:26:51,980 --> 00:26:56,189
We're gonna go to the dollar Swiss
first and I shouldn't have to
466
00:26:56,189 --> 00:26:58,889
draw this on here, but I'm going
to do it for completeness sake.
467
00:26:58,980 --> 00:27:02,100
You can see that we have the
Swifty against the dollar.
468
00:27:06,679 --> 00:27:07,219
It has.
469
00:27:08,100 --> 00:27:11,730
Also maintained a distinct range.
470
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,800
It's consolidating on the weekly chart.
471
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,480
Now I there's something
of, you're probably looking
472
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:16,110
at this thinking yourself.
473
00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:16,440
Oh, okay.
474
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,340
Michael, this is a weekly
chart and you could be a swing
475
00:27:20,340 --> 00:27:21,300
trader on a lower timeframe.
476
00:27:21,300 --> 00:27:22,980
Well, that's not how I
define a swing trade.
477
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,980
I need for a Swain tray.
478
00:27:30,010 --> 00:27:34,060
I need the weekly chart to support the
idea because then I have a great deal.
479
00:27:34,060 --> 00:27:34,870
More magnets.
480
00:27:35,940 --> 00:27:38,120
Expected, I don't have a step.
481
00:27:38,120 --> 00:27:39,690
I don't have just a daily chart.
482
00:27:39,690 --> 00:27:42,600
For instance, you suggesting
it's going to go higher or lower.
483
00:27:42,870 --> 00:27:44,370
I have a weekly and a monthly chart.
484
00:27:44,669 --> 00:27:48,659
And if these timeframes indicate that the
market is really wanting to go higher,
485
00:27:48,899 --> 00:27:53,669
or there should be support level and
therefore it should be chore, a higher PDA
486
00:27:54,090 --> 00:27:59,879
that will be above the marketplace, like
a bear shorter block or an old high that
487
00:27:59,879 --> 00:28:03,600
should draw a price up there, get them
trading off of a monthly and weekly chart.
488
00:28:04,649 --> 00:28:09,870
But if I don't see the profile that
is supportive of a swing trading
489
00:28:09,870 --> 00:28:14,610
idea in that pair, there may be a
trade to set up that it comes to
490
00:28:14,610 --> 00:28:16,200
fruition and I just didn't see it.
491
00:28:16,260 --> 00:28:17,190
And I'm okay with that.
492
00:28:17,430 --> 00:28:20,250
But you're going to see if you go
through the charts like this, you
493
00:28:20,250 --> 00:28:22,919
can't miss the big moves did this.
494
00:28:22,919 --> 00:28:23,760
Can't hide from it.
495
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,970
It is impossible for it to hide
from you because you're limiting
496
00:28:26,970 --> 00:28:30,510
your scope to only the markets that
are really being pushed around.
497
00:28:31,335 --> 00:28:35,745
And not every currency is going
to move in concert in contrary
498
00:28:35,745 --> 00:28:38,145
direction to what the dollar does.
499
00:28:38,715 --> 00:28:41,564
It may stay in a consolidation
while the dollar goes higher.
500
00:28:42,014 --> 00:28:44,804
When it should be going
lower or vice versa.
501
00:28:44,865 --> 00:28:49,064
If the dollar is going, uh, lower than the
foreign currencies, all should go higher.
502
00:28:49,215 --> 00:28:52,245
That's the general idea or theme,
but it doesn't always mean.
503
00:28:53,055 --> 00:28:55,635
And the way you avoid getting
caught up buying duds.
504
00:28:56,175 --> 00:28:56,445
Okay.
505
00:28:56,445 --> 00:28:57,435
Or selling markets.
506
00:28:57,435 --> 00:28:58,245
It won't go lower.
507
00:28:58,455 --> 00:29:01,605
If you start here, you look in the
marketplace on the hard timeframes
508
00:29:01,605 --> 00:29:03,465
and see are they in consolidation?
509
00:29:03,465 --> 00:29:06,645
Because they're, if they're being held in
consolidation, there's a reason there's
510
00:29:06,645 --> 00:29:07,995
no interest in buying and selling it.
511
00:29:08,375 --> 00:29:10,305
Otherwise large funds
would be pouring into them.
512
00:29:11,895 --> 00:29:16,764
So we have another consolidation
here on swissy and I'm
513
00:29:16,764 --> 00:29:18,355
going to go to the Japanese.
514
00:29:23,310 --> 00:29:23,520
Okay.
515
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:24,930
In the last three to six months.
516
00:29:40,399 --> 00:29:40,639
Okay.
517
00:29:40,639 --> 00:29:45,080
Has the yen versus the dollar, has
this pair been any consolidation,
518
00:29:45,830 --> 00:29:47,570
reversal, or is it in a trending.
519
00:29:49,230 --> 00:29:52,470
Clearly it's been in a
trending environment to now
520
00:29:52,500 --> 00:29:53,610
think about what this does.
521
00:29:55,260 --> 00:30:00,209
We've highlighted the markets that have
the largest degree of displacement.
522
00:30:01,260 --> 00:30:02,669
It's clearly discernible.
523
00:30:03,510 --> 00:30:05,100
We're looking at a weekly chart here.
524
00:30:05,429 --> 00:30:05,760
Okay.
525
00:30:06,060 --> 00:30:08,070
Once you do this or the weekly
chart, you can just quickly,
526
00:30:08,070 --> 00:30:09,990
easily toggle out to a month.
527
00:30:11,465 --> 00:30:15,665
I just like seeing it on a weekly chart
version, you can just see the same
528
00:30:15,665 --> 00:30:18,064
thing being displayed on a monthly.
529
00:30:24,284 --> 00:30:26,115
So we have displacement in here.
530
00:30:26,504 --> 00:30:26,955
Okay.
531
00:30:28,125 --> 00:30:35,235
The idea is we have the market wanting
to go out of the consolidation.
532
00:30:35,895 --> 00:30:37,635
Now, when we say, why am
I saying three to six?
533
00:30:38,790 --> 00:30:41,820
Because in the last three months,
there's going to be consolidation.
534
00:30:41,939 --> 00:30:42,990
Why, what are we looking at?
535
00:30:43,020 --> 00:30:43,649
What are we looking there?
536
00:30:43,649 --> 00:30:44,669
Why did I say three months?
537
00:30:44,669 --> 00:30:45,060
What's that?
538
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,000
What's the significance
behind three to six months?
539
00:30:48,450 --> 00:30:51,030
Well, six months away from today.
540
00:30:51,060 --> 00:30:55,620
That's about how far back I want
to use for determining what the
541
00:30:55,679 --> 00:30:57,389
probable direction is going forward.
542
00:30:58,590 --> 00:31:02,850
When we use, if the data ranges, we
look back the last 60 trading days.
543
00:31:03,675 --> 00:31:03,945
Okay.
544
00:31:03,945 --> 00:31:08,145
That's basically incorporating
the last three months, even
545
00:31:08,145 --> 00:31:09,375
though it's not 90 days.
546
00:31:09,405 --> 00:31:09,825
Okay.
547
00:31:10,155 --> 00:31:12,855
Looking back in the last 60 days,
you'll be able to see where the
548
00:31:12,855 --> 00:31:19,725
liquidity pools are and what APTA data
ranges would be most likely targeted.
549
00:31:19,875 --> 00:31:23,655
What liquidity pools, what voids
need to be filled, what all highs
550
00:31:23,655 --> 00:31:25,155
need to be violated or retail.
551
00:31:26,895 --> 00:31:30,105
all those ideas and what breakers above
and below the marketplace, all these
552
00:31:30,105 --> 00:31:33,675
ideas, you're going to still use them
on the monthly and weekly timeframe.
553
00:31:34,275 --> 00:31:37,395
But when we look back for three,
the last three months, okay.
554
00:31:37,845 --> 00:31:44,415
What that will help you do is it'll frame
the, not as high as probability that
555
00:31:44,415 --> 00:31:47,115
you would see if you look back to the
last six months, like this is the range
556
00:31:47,115 --> 00:31:53,670
I'd like to see, but if we go back just
three months to say it's like, Okay.
557
00:31:54,150 --> 00:31:59,220
That's still indicating a swing or
trending model, but if you go back
558
00:31:59,250 --> 00:32:05,130
into the other payers, like the, all
the, say, we cut that in half here.
559
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,340
It still shows us what consolidation.
560
00:32:09,270 --> 00:32:11,730
So by looking at the last three
months, are we in consolidate?
561
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,030
We have it's left at three
months consolidation.
562
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,150
We may be on the move and we
have to watch it and see if it
563
00:32:18,150 --> 00:32:19,470
breaks out above an old high.
564
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,300
We don't want to see a
tree back into the range.
565
00:32:21,330 --> 00:32:21,870
We want to see it.
566
00:32:22,050 --> 00:32:24,810
Keep on finding new buying net.
567
00:32:24,810 --> 00:32:25,050
Good.
568
00:32:25,110 --> 00:32:27,120
That will give us the swing trading setup.
569
00:32:27,150 --> 00:32:31,140
We'll wait for a scenario to transpire on
a daily chart, and then we'll take action.
570
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:37,640
You'll look at the dollar yen.
571
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:38,870
Okay.
572
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,570
If we go back and say, this
is looking back to three.
573
00:32:43,215 --> 00:32:44,445
We have this range in here.
574
00:32:44,715 --> 00:32:45,105
Okay.
575
00:32:48,105 --> 00:32:50,025
We dropped down into a daily timeframe.
576
00:32:55,485 --> 00:32:58,125
There's a couple swing
trades in this, in this pair.
577
00:33:00,655 --> 00:33:02,065
They're in there in this chart.
578
00:33:02,395 --> 00:33:02,815
Okay.
579
00:33:04,165 --> 00:33:09,385
You have one disorder block it, trades
down into it and here closes in the rain.
580
00:33:10,590 --> 00:33:11,940
There's a swing trade right there.
581
00:33:13,110 --> 00:33:16,710
Now I know what you're thinking, but
Michael, I want to buy down here.
582
00:33:18,030 --> 00:33:21,600
Well, there's other patterns and
techniques that we use for that, but this
583
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:25,379
model for swing trading, we're looking
for things that are already in alignment.
584
00:33:26,310 --> 00:33:28,560
We already have indications that
the market wants to go higher.
585
00:33:28,590 --> 00:33:32,429
This pair is under a trending
profile on the weekly chart.
586
00:33:33,060 --> 00:33:34,320
It's wanting to go higher.
587
00:33:34,330 --> 00:33:37,050
We already identified that
the monthly and weekly has a
588
00:33:37,050 --> 00:33:38,520
bearish order block, which is.
589
00:33:39,645 --> 00:33:40,935
Which is what it reached for.
590
00:33:41,504 --> 00:33:41,865
Okay.
591
00:33:43,245 --> 00:33:47,655
This buy in here is a swing tree because
it retraces back down and it has yet to
592
00:33:47,655 --> 00:33:51,615
fulfill its hard timeframe, objective
or trade to its monthly and weekly PDA.
593
00:33:55,075 --> 00:33:57,054
This is a swing trade.
594
00:33:58,284 --> 00:34:00,595
The duration is two weeks or longer.
595
00:34:01,044 --> 00:34:02,695
This is a daily chart and
you can see that transplant.
596
00:34:06,659 --> 00:34:10,770
You're not going to get a million
swing trades, but you're going to
597
00:34:10,770 --> 00:34:15,989
get ones that give you really high
probability setups and low risk.
598
00:34:16,009 --> 00:34:17,190
And you're gonna get instant feedback.
599
00:34:17,190 --> 00:34:20,069
You're going to get it right away,
where they're at, why there should
600
00:34:20,069 --> 00:34:21,389
be sensitivity at that level.
601
00:34:21,569 --> 00:34:23,429
What direction should you be focusing on?
602
00:34:23,639 --> 00:34:27,060
And in between all this
you'll do short-term trades.
603
00:34:27,449 --> 00:34:31,139
And when short term trades are in
between setups, you'll do dangerous.
604
00:34:32,025 --> 00:34:35,295
Or you won't do J trades if you're
not a day trader, but in between
605
00:34:35,295 --> 00:34:39,465
long-term position trades, you'll
do swing trades, short-term trades
606
00:34:39,645 --> 00:34:40,905
and day trades, if you're okay.
607
00:34:41,235 --> 00:34:44,955
And for those that are action hounds,
you'll scalp, while all these things are
608
00:34:44,955 --> 00:34:50,865
going on, all of this stuff will mesh,
but you have to take a step back and say,
609
00:34:50,865 --> 00:34:56,205
okay, how many, how many times can you
buy in here on a swing trading model?
610
00:34:58,795 --> 00:35:01,135
This is the classic scenario.
611
00:35:02,490 --> 00:35:05,640
Because you have an unfulfilled
objective and there was nothing up
612
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:11,380
here that would indicate willingness
to go lower the buy on order, block
613
00:35:12,130 --> 00:35:18,340
the back of the notes on your notes
for, uh, um, institutional order flow.
614
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,880
And you'll see that we should be
finding support at every down candle.
615
00:35:21,940 --> 00:35:22,300
We see.
616
00:35:23,189 --> 00:35:23,939
Was there buying?
617
00:35:24,029 --> 00:35:24,509
Yes.
618
00:35:24,839 --> 00:35:26,220
And it quickly moves away.
619
00:35:26,459 --> 00:35:27,930
Did it take out the candles?
620
00:35:28,109 --> 00:35:29,970
It does here on this candle.
621
00:35:30,629 --> 00:35:31,020
Okay.
622
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:31,890
Well what can I do?
623
00:35:31,950 --> 00:35:32,790
What can I do next?
624
00:35:32,879 --> 00:35:35,069
Well, you have all these
three candles here.
625
00:35:35,069 --> 00:35:40,140
This is now all one or shorter block
down, down, down after this big move.
626
00:35:40,950 --> 00:35:43,080
They've taken out this four blocks high.
627
00:35:43,620 --> 00:35:44,009
Okay.
628
00:35:44,549 --> 00:35:47,819
So it means you can be a buyer
when the trades back down into this
629
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,879
three bar formation, it's this one.
630
00:35:52,225 --> 00:35:55,195
Series of three down candles or
bullshitter shorter block because
631
00:35:55,495 --> 00:35:57,745
smart money's buying in a down move.
632
00:35:58,795 --> 00:36:00,115
You split that range in half.
633
00:36:00,115 --> 00:36:04,555
That's your mean threshold at the mean
threshold and above to the high that's
634
00:36:04,555 --> 00:36:07,655
where you're looking to buy anywhere in.
635
00:36:07,855 --> 00:36:09,595
And here's your return back to it there.
636
00:36:10,885 --> 00:36:14,015
Now you're looking for
institutional levels in.
637
00:36:15,799 --> 00:36:16,640
The frame and entry.
638
00:36:16,669 --> 00:36:19,790
So you can be a buyer here where
you can buy, be a buyer here.
639
00:36:20,180 --> 00:36:20,899
That's it.
640
00:36:20,930 --> 00:36:22,069
There's no other swing trades.
641
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:25,339
This pair has no of a swing trade setups.
642
00:36:25,759 --> 00:36:28,189
Outside of those two, there
are short term trades.
643
00:36:28,189 --> 00:36:29,509
There are nature aids, but that's it.
644
00:36:29,509 --> 00:36:30,439
There's no other swing trades.
645
00:36:31,310 --> 00:36:35,209
Now you're looking at this and thinking,
but this is chasing price, Michael,
646
00:36:35,209 --> 00:36:37,640
this is, this is buying near the highs.
647
00:36:37,669 --> 00:36:40,700
No, this is buying in the
middle of an unfulfilled range.
648
00:36:42,140 --> 00:36:43,009
You got to look at the monthly.
649
00:36:43,875 --> 00:36:47,745
You got to understand that this
muffin weekly chart had reasons as we
650
00:36:47,745 --> 00:36:49,515
discouraged disclosing the mentorship.
651
00:36:50,895 --> 00:36:54,855
We're good to go up to those levels on the
monthly and weekly chart for a dollar yen.
652
00:36:55,995 --> 00:37:02,904
So while this would be looked at buying
near the high, if you're just looking
653
00:37:02,904 --> 00:37:04,525
at a daily chart, yeah, it will be true.
654
00:37:05,634 --> 00:37:06,714
But the weekly chart.
655
00:37:14,865 --> 00:37:20,024
Had this range back here, the
clothes in this last up candle bear,
656
00:37:20,024 --> 00:37:23,535
shorter block we avoid in here.
657
00:37:24,165 --> 00:37:24,555
Fair guy.
658
00:37:24,565 --> 00:37:29,115
You got all, those were unfulfilled
and price needs to go higher.
659
00:37:30,015 --> 00:37:35,115
Once it closed in that range here
to wick to the open that's when you
660
00:37:35,115 --> 00:37:37,185
had some retracement of any measure.
661
00:37:39,774 --> 00:37:40,615
So when you see.
662
00:37:41,895 --> 00:37:49,674
In these hard timeframe, consolidations,
that means they're somewhere a payer
663
00:37:49,794 --> 00:37:51,415
that is in a training environment.
664
00:37:51,504 --> 00:37:54,564
And there's going to be times when the
dollars trending all the other currencies
665
00:37:54,564 --> 00:37:58,225
are going to be trending and maybe one or
two will be in health and salvation that
666
00:37:58,225 --> 00:38:01,765
in itself, as we'll talk about in less
than three we'll present opportunity.
667
00:38:02,580 --> 00:38:07,020
Remember the market makers will hold
payers and consolidation and let other
668
00:38:07,020 --> 00:38:09,720
pairs rally to manipulate the majors.
669
00:38:09,930 --> 00:38:14,340
And by manipulating the majors, that's
how they control the crosses like Euro
670
00:38:14,340 --> 00:38:21,480
pound, Euro, Japanese yen, pound yen, or
these exotic like, uh, I don't even know.
671
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:22,350
I don't trade them so much.
672
00:38:22,350 --> 00:38:24,780
I couldn't think of the top of my
head what they would be, but, uh,
673
00:38:24,810 --> 00:38:28,950
well, all the, again, that's a pair I
don't like to trade either, but I know
674
00:38:29,220 --> 00:38:29,910
there's a lot of people out there.
675
00:38:31,050 --> 00:38:31,890
I just don't trade it.
676
00:38:32,100 --> 00:38:37,230
But nonetheless, um, in summary, the
dollar index on the weekly chart,
677
00:38:37,650 --> 00:38:40,170
if we look at what we see here on
the last three, six months for this
678
00:38:40,170 --> 00:38:45,120
pair, if you take a look at the last
three to six months for this one,
679
00:38:57,540 --> 00:38:59,790
has the dollar index
been in a consolidate.
680
00:39:02,214 --> 00:39:06,065
Or a training environment,
training environment.
681
00:39:07,025 --> 00:39:11,165
So if we see the market making higher
highs and higher lows, we're in
682
00:39:11,165 --> 00:39:14,884
retracement here could be reversal, but
we are looking at a trending environment.
683
00:39:14,884 --> 00:39:19,045
Nonetheless, it's not having a difficult
time moving outside of the S it's,
684
00:39:19,595 --> 00:39:21,605
uh, small consolidations in ranges.
685
00:39:22,055 --> 00:39:23,825
So it's me and willingness to go higher.
686
00:39:23,915 --> 00:39:28,045
Contrast that with Euro,
you can consolidate.
687
00:39:30,335 --> 00:39:33,575
Couple that with the dollar
index it's bullish on dollar.
688
00:39:34,025 --> 00:39:40,235
So we should be what can't really swing
trade Euro, but there's a preview.
689
00:39:40,445 --> 00:39:44,765
This means that you can be a short-term
trader on Euro dollar, and you
690
00:39:44,765 --> 00:39:46,325
could be looking to do what with it.
691
00:39:46,925 --> 00:39:51,995
You could sell it because you have
up movement in dollar index while
692
00:39:51,995 --> 00:39:54,155
the Euro dollar isn't consolidation.
693
00:39:54,755 --> 00:39:56,915
So it's underlying strength in the dollar.
694
00:39:58,005 --> 00:40:01,245
Which would be weakness on
the part of the Euro dollar.
695
00:40:02,325 --> 00:40:06,495
So, and that's why you see, even though
in this large consolidation, every
696
00:40:06,495 --> 00:40:10,515
big, significant move has always been
on a black candle statement down and
697
00:40:10,515 --> 00:40:15,735
very little, and it takes a lot of
time for this pair to trade higher.
698
00:40:17,475 --> 00:40:20,565
So in summary, I want you to think
like this, this is some homework
699
00:40:20,565 --> 00:40:23,625
for you today, and it won't
take you beyond today to do it.
700
00:40:24,195 --> 00:40:25,335
I want you to look at the.
701
00:40:26,235 --> 00:40:29,865
The relationship to the payers that
we've outlined at our in trending
702
00:40:29,865 --> 00:40:31,035
environments on the weekly chart.
703
00:40:32,145 --> 00:40:35,865
Couple that with the payers or
currencies that are in consolidation
704
00:40:36,585 --> 00:40:39,795
and go through the last three to six
months and share on the forum, your
705
00:40:39,795 --> 00:40:44,655
observations about what setups, if
at all occurred on a swing trading
706
00:40:44,655 --> 00:40:45,975
basis, that means you can't drop them.
707
00:40:46,740 --> 00:40:49,790
Below a daily chart don't do
anything less than a daily chart.
708
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,890
Cause we haven't started talking
about entry patterns, I think for four
709
00:40:52,890 --> 00:40:57,780
hour yet, but make some observations
about what you see in relationship
710
00:40:57,810 --> 00:41:02,700
to this pattern or viewpoint, because
this is what you want to look for.
711
00:41:03,330 --> 00:41:05,400
Um, as, okay.
712
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,120
I'll just say it like this
as a fund trader, this is one
713
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:10,170
of the filtering processes.
714
00:41:11,355 --> 00:41:14,475
They look for pairs that have
a willingness to want to move.
715
00:41:14,835 --> 00:41:15,225
Okay.
716
00:41:15,495 --> 00:41:16,875
I don't need moving averages.
717
00:41:16,875 --> 00:41:20,565
Moving averages were a crutch for
those in the free, free tutorial stuff.
718
00:41:20,924 --> 00:41:26,045
But all you're doing is you're looking
for the evidence that the market is in
719
00:41:26,065 --> 00:41:27,795
consolidation or that it's trending.
720
00:41:27,795 --> 00:41:29,325
If it's trending, it's obvious.
721
00:41:30,045 --> 00:41:31,875
If it's not obvious, it's consulted.
722
00:41:32,865 --> 00:41:37,665
If it's in consolidation, anticipate
reversal, but wait for the consistent, uh,
723
00:41:37,905 --> 00:41:41,295
the confirmation that it's already moved
out and because of the long-term chart,
724
00:41:41,325 --> 00:41:45,255
we don't care that we're waiting for
it to breakout and give a confirmation.
725
00:41:46,005 --> 00:41:51,555
If you go back to the, uh,
yen, we got here to it again,
726
00:41:51,555 --> 00:41:52,905
go down to a daily chart.
727
00:41:57,330 --> 00:42:02,549
The newer trader or the less experienced
trader in our group that would be
728
00:42:02,549 --> 00:42:06,750
looking at this saying, okay, well, if
I bought here, that's really not that
729
00:42:06,750 --> 00:42:08,580
exciting because I want to buy here.
730
00:42:09,180 --> 00:42:09,480
Okay.
731
00:42:09,660 --> 00:42:10,980
Or I want to be buying down here.
732
00:42:11,430 --> 00:42:13,259
That's other setups as other scenarios.
733
00:42:13,259 --> 00:42:14,250
That's other conditions.
734
00:42:14,609 --> 00:42:14,879
Okay.
735
00:42:14,910 --> 00:42:17,549
Swing trading is highest
probable direction.
736
00:42:18,180 --> 00:42:19,950
When the buying should be
occurring, you're buying.
737
00:42:21,180 --> 00:42:25,650
The drawdown is very little
it's timeliness is impactful.
738
00:42:25,650 --> 00:42:27,240
It means you get immediate feedback.
739
00:42:27,540 --> 00:42:30,750
If it's a strong Swain trade and you
have these conditions, you will not
740
00:42:30,750 --> 00:42:32,940
sit around waiting for profitability.
741
00:42:32,940 --> 00:42:37,319
It will move in your favor instantly
because more money is going to be piled
742
00:42:37,319 --> 00:42:40,049
in behind that level than just you.
743
00:42:40,799 --> 00:42:42,299
You're not, you're not
even on the radar screen.
744
00:42:42,720 --> 00:42:45,810
So if we see these
conditions like this and you.
745
00:42:47,674 --> 00:42:47,855
Okay.
746
00:42:47,855 --> 00:42:51,065
If you bought anywhere in this area
here, we'll just say we, we used about
747
00:42:51,065 --> 00:42:52,715
the middle point of that, that candle.
748
00:42:52,715 --> 00:42:58,025
That would be a low, the close
comes in at 1 11 67, opening this
749
00:42:58,025 --> 00:43:04,535
1, 12 66, civil to say 12, we
went along at one 12 big figure.
750
00:43:05,045 --> 00:43:05,285
Okay.
751
00:43:05,315 --> 00:43:10,444
Once, while big figure what good
grief over here at the high you're
752
00:43:10,444 --> 00:43:13,535
already at 200 plus pips, 286.
753
00:43:15,435 --> 00:43:16,875
I already told you that
that's the scenario you're
754
00:43:16,875 --> 00:43:19,845
looking for 200 to 500 pips.
755
00:43:20,505 --> 00:43:22,515
That's what this that's
what these setups give you.
756
00:43:23,175 --> 00:43:26,385
You don't need a lot of them over
the, over the course of a year.
757
00:43:27,525 --> 00:43:29,415
Every pair is going to give you something.
758
00:43:29,415 --> 00:43:29,925
If you wait.
759
00:43:30,975 --> 00:43:33,884
It will be there, but it's not
going to be every single time.
760
00:43:33,884 --> 00:43:35,415
There's a set up basis to the dollar.
761
00:43:35,745 --> 00:43:37,335
There's going to be some give and take.
762
00:43:37,785 --> 00:43:40,695
And that's why you want to have
to go through all the majors.
763
00:43:41,205 --> 00:43:41,445
Okay.
764
00:43:41,445 --> 00:43:41,955
Like this.
765
00:43:41,955 --> 00:43:43,035
And you're going to find setups.
766
00:43:43,395 --> 00:43:48,015
If you hold onto this thing for two
weeks, this is a, this will be the
767
00:43:48,015 --> 00:43:49,545
day the entering or this day here.
768
00:43:50,654 --> 00:43:56,595
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
11, 12, 13, 14, thereabouts.
769
00:43:56,595 --> 00:43:57,225
That's two weeks.
770
00:43:59,845 --> 00:44:04,465
Think about it, folks, this model
is not an everyday sin situation.
771
00:44:04,495 --> 00:44:07,405
It's a high probability
swing trading model.
772
00:44:07,645 --> 00:44:10,825
That means you're looking for the
highest probable direction to trade
773
00:44:11,065 --> 00:44:14,785
where, you know, the institutional
sponsorship will be behind your idea.
774
00:44:15,385 --> 00:44:17,515
And guess what if it takes this Orbach?
775
00:44:18,509 --> 00:44:19,589
And you get stopped out.
776
00:44:19,709 --> 00:44:21,029
You get immediate feedback.
777
00:44:21,419 --> 00:44:25,649
That means you have to do what you
have to drop back to a weekly idea.
778
00:44:25,859 --> 00:44:29,370
Go back to APDA on the weekly
chart because the daily broke down.
779
00:44:29,370 --> 00:44:31,649
So where's the next level and the
weekly chart to look for support.
780
00:44:32,009 --> 00:44:34,350
If that gives way, well, we
probably reversed and then we'll
781
00:44:34,350 --> 00:44:36,930
wait for a rally up and then we'll
sell into a bear shorter block.
782
00:44:37,770 --> 00:44:38,339
You'll see that.
783
00:44:38,339 --> 00:44:40,319
There's no reason to fear taking a loss.
784
00:44:40,770 --> 00:44:42,089
Everything will be systematic.
785
00:44:42,089 --> 00:44:42,240
It's.
786
00:44:43,645 --> 00:44:45,895
But don't think that you have
to have the lowest low and the
787
00:44:45,895 --> 00:44:47,515
highest high in swing training.
788
00:44:47,515 --> 00:44:49,285
You're getting the meat in between.
789
00:44:49,315 --> 00:44:50,035
That's all you're doing.
790
00:44:50,035 --> 00:44:53,845
You're getting that lion's portion
of the flesh and that's all you need.
791
00:44:54,085 --> 00:44:57,535
If you just did this a couple of
times a year, you'll be blown away.
792
00:44:57,535 --> 00:45:00,175
Every expectation you're ahead
for trading because you're
793
00:45:00,175 --> 00:45:02,635
being able to do more with less.
794
00:45:03,085 --> 00:45:04,585
And that's what really trading is.
795
00:45:04,705 --> 00:45:08,485
You want to be doing very little
risk, very little trading, but having
796
00:45:08,485 --> 00:45:11,245
huge profitability or probability in.
797
00:45:12,315 --> 00:45:13,755
And this model is going
to help you do that.
798
00:45:14,085 --> 00:45:15,915
So we're going to be using a lot
of the things we talked about
799
00:45:15,915 --> 00:45:20,925
in the higher timeframe, macro
analysis, to frame the ideas, using
800
00:45:20,925 --> 00:45:22,845
what we just disclosed here also.
801
00:45:23,085 --> 00:45:27,645
And it'll build very specific ideas
about swing trading and you'll know
802
00:45:27,735 --> 00:45:29,145
exactly when you should be swing trading.
803
00:45:29,325 --> 00:45:31,215
And if it's not there,
don't worry about it.
804
00:45:31,215 --> 00:45:32,105
Don't push it off for.
805
00:45:33,045 --> 00:45:36,585
This wait for, when we start going into
short-term trading, then you'll know what
806
00:45:36,585 --> 00:45:39,615
you should be doing there because you have
a lot more trade setups with the short
807
00:45:39,615 --> 00:45:43,995
term trading, because you have one every
single week, every single week, and every,
808
00:45:44,145 --> 00:45:45,525
I want to get into the day trading stuff.
809
00:45:45,825 --> 00:45:47,925
There is a trade, every
single trading day.
810
00:45:47,985 --> 00:45:50,625
If you're a day trader, when you
use the model that we teach, and
811
00:45:50,625 --> 00:45:52,905
it's always going to compliment the
things that we're teaching here, just
812
00:45:52,905 --> 00:45:55,845
like this is going to compliment the
teaching you have for macro analysis.
813
00:45:56,715 --> 00:45:59,595
Every discipline is
supportment to the one.
814
00:45:59,595 --> 00:46:00,125
We just didn't.
815
00:46:00,225 --> 00:46:00,285
It.
816
00:46:02,015 --> 00:46:04,955
Swing trading is going to be subordinate
to what we learned in January.
817
00:46:05,345 --> 00:46:08,375
And then short-term trade is going to
be subordinate to what we teach here in
818
00:46:08,375 --> 00:46:10,685
swing trading, because in-between swings.
819
00:46:11,075 --> 00:46:14,135
They're smaller swings
because price is fractal.
820
00:46:15,065 --> 00:46:19,895
So in-between this buying opportunity
in this high, we can only really
821
00:46:19,895 --> 00:46:21,785
see two favorable entries.
822
00:46:23,315 --> 00:46:27,515
This one, and this one, apart from that.
823
00:46:28,930 --> 00:46:32,860
There's no swing trading entries
based on my rules, but there is
824
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,910
one to two more short term trading.
825
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:43,960
And in day trading, you got every up
candle in here as a potential by so
826
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:48,520
you'll know how immediately, no matter
what asset class, whether it's a metal
827
00:46:48,580 --> 00:46:54,100
of a commodity, a bond, if it's a
currency, a stock, it does not matter.
828
00:46:55,170 --> 00:46:59,430
You're immediately in, in less than 10
minutes using every timeframe from monthly
829
00:46:59,430 --> 00:47:01,290
down to, uh, a four hour timeframe.
830
00:47:01,290 --> 00:47:04,320
Or if you're going to be day trader
down to a 15 minute timeframe, you'll
831
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:08,220
know how to slice and dice that chart
and be able to frame out whatever
832
00:47:08,220 --> 00:47:09,450
type of trader you want to be.
833
00:47:09,810 --> 00:47:13,560
And you'll know where the next move is
going to be in relationship to that.
834
00:47:13,860 --> 00:47:16,200
Is it poised to move as
swing trade if it's not?
835
00:47:16,230 --> 00:47:17,190
Okay, no problem.
836
00:47:17,310 --> 00:47:18,720
Let me drop down to a short term trade.
837
00:47:19,230 --> 00:47:20,400
If there's something there, I'll take it.
838
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,759
If it's not okay, where's
it at in reference to.
839
00:47:24,195 --> 00:47:27,765
And I say that because it's not to say
that like the Euro is in a consolidation,
840
00:47:27,765 --> 00:47:28,875
so therefore don't trade Euro.
841
00:47:29,775 --> 00:47:30,455
No, no, no, it's not.
842
00:47:30,455 --> 00:47:31,035
I'm not saying that.
843
00:47:31,065 --> 00:47:35,535
I'm just saying in terms of a swing
trade, you can't use that pair right
844
00:47:35,535 --> 00:47:38,955
now because it doesn't have the
willingness to want to move yet.
845
00:47:39,465 --> 00:47:40,005
It will.
846
00:47:40,275 --> 00:47:42,195
And when it moves, it's going
to move a lot because it's
847
00:47:42,195 --> 00:47:43,485
being held in consolidation.
848
00:47:44,175 --> 00:47:47,555
And when this thing blows out, whether
higher or lower land, we're going to
849
00:47:47,555 --> 00:47:50,535
have a lot of opportunities in this thing
because they been holding it for me.
850
00:47:53,095 --> 00:47:53,875
Look at what he did here.
851
00:47:53,875 --> 00:47:54,235
We're here.
852
00:47:54,835 --> 00:47:57,055
It's been a consolidation and a move.
853
00:47:57,625 --> 00:47:58,255
Huge move.
854
00:47:58,495 --> 00:47:59,605
We're going to see another one of that.
855
00:48:00,115 --> 00:48:00,385
Okay.
856
00:48:00,385 --> 00:48:01,375
It's this winding up.
857
00:48:01,615 --> 00:48:02,395
Just wait for it.
858
00:48:02,695 --> 00:48:03,445
Don't force it.
859
00:48:03,715 --> 00:48:08,035
Do not try to push yourself into a
trade just because it can't give you a
860
00:48:08,035 --> 00:48:11,275
swing trade in the Euro dollar doesn't
mean you can't take short-term trades.
861
00:48:12,175 --> 00:48:14,545
Look at w I mean, we've been talking
about the Euro dollar going higher.
862
00:48:16,020 --> 00:48:17,550
You could be a day trader
in a year, a dollar.
863
00:48:17,850 --> 00:48:18,030
Okay.
864
00:48:18,030 --> 00:48:19,770
So there's plenty of opportunities.
865
00:48:19,770 --> 00:48:25,110
There's always ways to make money, but
I have to give you the mindset for each
866
00:48:25,110 --> 00:48:30,420
individual discipline of trading for that
month and not show you other timeframes
867
00:48:30,420 --> 00:48:32,700
because it will more you're life.
868
00:48:33,750 --> 00:48:35,340
You don't want to be
focusing on all that stuff.
869
00:48:35,370 --> 00:48:39,390
And you'll see, as we go through each
one, compliments the next and you'll have
870
00:48:39,390 --> 00:48:44,130
a complete view of how the marketplace
works, what drives price and how the
871
00:48:44,130 --> 00:48:45,840
find, the opportunities just like that.
872
00:48:45,900 --> 00:48:49,170
It won't take, but just a few minutes
in any timeframe you'll know right
873
00:48:49,170 --> 00:48:51,690
away what you should be doing, but
we start on a higher timeframe to
874
00:48:51,690 --> 00:48:54,900
frame out where is the large flows?
875
00:48:54,900 --> 00:48:58,830
Because if they're going to be a lot
of money pouring in behind a buying
876
00:48:58,830 --> 00:49:00,690
opportunity, you'll see it on the.
877
00:49:01,890 --> 00:49:05,460
If it's not going to be there and it's
gonna be in consolidation, no problem.
878
00:49:05,700 --> 00:49:10,710
Go to the next pairs and you can
quickly see how the contrast between
879
00:49:10,950 --> 00:49:13,020
the New Zealand dollar and the yen.
880
00:49:13,590 --> 00:49:16,890
They were paramount across the board
over the last three, six months, because
881
00:49:16,890 --> 00:49:18,540
they were unwilling to stay in a range.
882
00:49:19,260 --> 00:49:23,790
They were pushed out, they were driven,
and if they drive one direction over
883
00:49:23,790 --> 00:49:27,150
the other, while other markets are being
held in consolidation, that tells you
884
00:49:27,150 --> 00:49:30,060
where the money is, they're buying up.
885
00:49:31,275 --> 00:49:32,235
And they're buying up.
886
00:49:33,405 --> 00:49:33,735
Oh, I'm sorry.
887
00:49:33,735 --> 00:49:34,605
They're selling in.
888
00:49:34,845 --> 00:49:42,365
And they're buying up Keely and you
can see it Dolly again, rallied at
889
00:49:42,365 --> 00:49:45,905
means the Japanese Yen's declining
and you can go into a future starting.
890
00:49:45,905 --> 00:49:46,775
You have to see that too.
891
00:49:47,135 --> 00:49:52,925
But the point is, before we get into the
million dollar swing trade set up, you
892
00:49:52,925 --> 00:49:59,105
have to have this understanding, knowing
that the market that is poised to have.
893
00:50:00,315 --> 00:50:01,305
Movement behind it.
894
00:50:01,665 --> 00:50:02,895
This is how the fun started.
895
00:50:02,955 --> 00:50:04,575
This is their first filtering process.
896
00:50:05,025 --> 00:50:09,195
Is there a displacement that pushes
the market one side over the other?
897
00:50:09,585 --> 00:50:13,995
If there is it's evidence on the
hard timeframe and if it's not,
898
00:50:14,385 --> 00:50:15,945
they won't go into that market.
899
00:50:15,945 --> 00:50:18,225
They're going to go into the ones
that have a willingness to move
900
00:50:18,225 --> 00:50:19,635
and look what happened in the end.
901
00:50:21,075 --> 00:50:22,575
Look how many pips this thing has moved.
902
00:50:24,815 --> 00:50:25,565
I mean, we had a high.
903
00:50:27,450 --> 00:50:32,670
And this thing almost moved, uh,
like 2000 pips, almost 2000 pips.
904
00:50:34,350 --> 00:50:41,020
That's a lot in relationship to
that of say a Aussie dollar, a
905
00:50:41,020 --> 00:50:44,820
little wimpy, 600 pips in your.
906
00:50:49,650 --> 00:50:54,690
Like 900 pips, something like that on
the downside, something close to that.
907
00:50:56,190 --> 00:51:01,830
And then you had the pound dollar,
we're had thousands of pips,
908
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:07,590
New Zealand,
909
00:51:13,130 --> 00:51:13,850
that thousand pips.
910
00:51:17,194 --> 00:51:20,285
So, which pair are you going
to trade as a swing trader?
911
00:51:20,944 --> 00:51:23,645
Are you gonna be looking for pairs
that are in consolidation or ones
912
00:51:23,645 --> 00:51:29,524
that are making clear discernible
patterns higher in an uptrend and keep
913
00:51:29,524 --> 00:51:32,225
breaking old highs and supporting for?
914
00:51:32,225 --> 00:51:35,794
I said old down candles, that means
you see institutional order flow.
915
00:51:35,814 --> 00:51:39,904
It means the funds are pouring money
in every time they do this more buying,
916
00:51:39,904 --> 00:51:42,484
it's going to take place reverse.
917
00:51:44,515 --> 00:51:51,865
Every time that there was an up candle in
the, uh, British pound up in here, right?
918
00:51:51,865 --> 00:51:56,995
For the down mood, they returned
back to the here on this spike
919
00:51:56,995 --> 00:51:58,254
up here, and it rallied lower.
920
00:52:00,395 --> 00:52:05,495
Everything that we look for for PDAs
you use on these timeframes, but you
921
00:52:05,495 --> 00:52:11,915
start with filtering out whether the
market is wanting to move in a trend or.
922
00:52:12,900 --> 00:52:15,569
If it's in consolidation notice
I didn't pull any trend lines up.
923
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,690
I didn't pull up any
kind of moving averages.
924
00:52:18,690 --> 00:52:20,009
I didn't put any kind of indicators.
925
00:52:20,250 --> 00:52:23,069
All we're looking for is a
simple profile and it's simple.
926
00:52:23,339 --> 00:52:26,580
I can put my nine-year-old right in front
of the chart and ask him which one's
927
00:52:26,580 --> 00:52:29,819
going sideways and which one's moving
up or down and he'll be able to do it.
928
00:52:31,049 --> 00:52:31,710
So think about it.
929
00:52:31,710 --> 00:52:35,100
If you ever struggle, if you have a small
child, take them to your computer and
930
00:52:35,100 --> 00:52:38,819
say, okay, inside this box, would you
say this is going up down or go inside?
931
00:52:40,270 --> 00:52:41,800
And the answer they give you, that's it.
932
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:42,910
This is that simple.
933
00:52:44,380 --> 00:52:46,600
And just look at the pair, study them.
934
00:52:47,140 --> 00:52:47,560
Okay.
935
00:52:47,950 --> 00:52:51,220
And look at the relationships between
other currencies that they're paired
936
00:52:51,220 --> 00:52:53,050
with every available currency pair.
937
00:52:53,410 --> 00:52:55,270
And look at what's happened
over the last three to six
938
00:52:55,270 --> 00:52:56,380
months in relationship to that.
939
00:52:56,980 --> 00:53:00,700
And again, I'm not trying to convince
you or talk you into doing a major.
940
00:53:01,845 --> 00:53:06,225
Across as like a pound yen or all
the, and I'm not trying to do that,
941
00:53:06,225 --> 00:53:10,305
but I just want you to see how, even
though I don't, as your mentor trade
942
00:53:10,305 --> 00:53:12,645
those pairs, you made like to do that.
943
00:53:13,155 --> 00:53:15,765
And there's many opportunities throughout
the year that you'll be able to trade
944
00:53:15,765 --> 00:53:17,805
those and I'll give you a rules for it.
945
00:53:17,955 --> 00:53:21,165
But for me, I just don't get the, I
don't get the tax treatment trading them.
946
00:53:22,005 --> 00:53:24,525
So it's not worth the extra
step because you got to do the
947
00:53:24,525 --> 00:53:26,055
analysis twice when you trade this.
948
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:31,170
Which to me it's not that big of a
deal, but to me, I just like looking
949
00:53:31,170 --> 00:53:34,290
at a dollar index and then looking at
the dollar crosses, and then it's done.
950
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:35,280
I need to know I have a trader.
951
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,610
I don't have one, but as far
as swing trading, this is it.
952
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,320
This is your first stepping stone.
953
00:53:40,650 --> 00:53:41,430
This is what you do.
954
00:53:41,430 --> 00:53:45,270
You look for this, and this will
frame out what pairs are really ideal
955
00:53:45,270 --> 00:53:47,340
for you to trade as a swing trade.
956
00:53:47,700 --> 00:53:50,700
If it doesn't fit this criteria,
it's not a swing trade.
957
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:52,080
It's just that simple.
958
00:53:52,650 --> 00:53:54,510
You got to go to a lower timeframe.
959
00:53:54,690 --> 00:53:55,140
Discipline.
960
00:53:55,260 --> 00:53:55,920
That means short-term.
961
00:53:56,805 --> 00:53:58,395
Or day trading for scalp.
962
00:53:58,395 --> 00:54:04,675
It plenty of scalps in Europe,
plenty of day trades in Europe.
963
00:54:05,485 --> 00:54:10,045
And there's a couple short term
trades in there, not in swing trading.
964
00:54:11,425 --> 00:54:12,475
So I'm going to close it here.
965
00:54:13,045 --> 00:54:15,025
Wish you all a very pleasant afternoon.
966
00:54:15,085 --> 00:54:21,595
And again, I'm going to be
looking for, uh, as may or S Q a.
967
00:54:21,625 --> 00:54:23,395
If you could please create a.
968
00:54:24,509 --> 00:54:27,330
In our forum for this lesson today.
969
00:54:27,509 --> 00:54:32,460
Uh, just title it as a,
um, what would we title it?
970
00:54:34,930 --> 00:54:36,910
Higher timeframe swinging.
971
00:54:38,500 --> 00:54:39,549
Model confirmation.
972
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,069
We'll just do it like that
or something to that effect.
973
00:54:42,460 --> 00:54:46,540
And then you guys can, uh, post your
observations there and there's, some of
974
00:54:46,540 --> 00:54:49,990
you are just going to wait and see what
everybody else does and then look and see
975
00:54:49,990 --> 00:54:53,440
what they did and then come to agreement
or disagreement about it, but do the work.
976
00:54:53,529 --> 00:54:53,859
Okay.
977
00:54:53,890 --> 00:54:54,160
Really?
978
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:55,569
When we do these individual.
979
00:54:56,759 --> 00:55:01,290
The disciplines each month for you
to learn, I'm going to push you
980
00:55:01,290 --> 00:55:04,020
into a form of investigating it.
981
00:55:04,350 --> 00:55:09,029
I do not want you to take what I show
in a PowerPoint slide or a video.
982
00:55:09,810 --> 00:55:10,110
Okay.
983
00:55:10,110 --> 00:55:11,250
And take that as the gospel.
984
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:12,720
That's not how you're going to learn this.
985
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:16,410
You're going to appreciate it more
when you go in gradually, as I tell
986
00:55:16,410 --> 00:55:19,590
you, look, look for this and you'll see
it, look for this and you'll see it.
987
00:55:19,650 --> 00:55:22,650
And when you find it before I start
going into greater detail about it,
988
00:55:23,220 --> 00:55:26,730
when my, when I do the teachings, it'll
be like, oh yeah, this makes perfect.
989
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:27,450
I see that.
990
00:55:27,450 --> 00:55:28,770
I know exactly what it's talking about.
991
00:55:29,955 --> 00:55:33,165
And then once you have that, you
graduate to a higher level understanding
992
00:55:33,435 --> 00:55:35,955
and a greater appreciation for
what you're spending your money on.
993
00:55:36,045 --> 00:55:39,255
Not just your time, that way you'll
know by the end of this month,
994
00:55:39,585 --> 00:55:41,205
you'll know exactly what you're
looking for as a swing trader.
995
00:55:41,355 --> 00:55:45,465
It will be absolutely certain what you're
doing and you'll know when not the trade.
996
00:55:45,705 --> 00:55:46,995
That's the most important lesson.
997
00:55:47,295 --> 00:55:48,525
Don't force a swing trade.
998
00:55:48,555 --> 00:55:51,285
If the conditions aren't
there, think about it.
999
00:55:52,185 --> 00:55:55,545
If you're a day trader, you know,
to, if I'm a bullish person, I
1000
00:55:55,545 --> 00:55:56,924
want to be buying at the open.
1001
00:55:58,670 --> 00:56:00,260
Well, why would I want to be selling it?
1002
00:56:00,260 --> 00:56:02,990
If I'm bullish, think about it.
1003
00:56:02,990 --> 00:56:03,830
It's the same thing.
1004
00:56:04,340 --> 00:56:10,040
Don't force a, an opinion or a
viewpoint or a discipline of trading
1005
00:56:10,550 --> 00:56:12,680
in a condition that doesn't favor it.
1006
00:56:13,610 --> 00:56:18,620
If the market's not predisposed to go in
a training environment higher or lower.
1007
00:56:19,980 --> 00:56:21,250
Try to swing trade.
1008
00:56:21,299 --> 00:56:22,770
This is what beats traders up.
1009
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,250
Or they get into an idea and they take a
swing trade and they get in and you see
1010
00:56:26,250 --> 00:56:28,649
initial feedback that looks positive.
1011
00:56:28,649 --> 00:56:32,670
They have a little bit of profit and they
marry the idea and they're on Facebook.
1012
00:56:32,910 --> 00:56:34,440
They're on Forex factory.
1013
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:35,879
They're on all the forums are on Twitter.
1014
00:56:36,180 --> 00:56:37,350
I'm going to kill this one.
1015
00:56:37,379 --> 00:56:38,399
And all of a sudden
they reverse it to them.
1016
00:56:38,399 --> 00:56:39,299
And then you don't hear about them.
1017
00:56:39,460 --> 00:56:43,859
They go quiet because they got beat
up and it turned on them because
1018
00:56:43,859 --> 00:56:45,330
it wasn't a favorable market.
1019
00:56:45,330 --> 00:56:45,390
Yeah.
1020
00:56:46,620 --> 00:56:49,530
This is such an easy
filter, but nobody does it.
1021
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,980
They don't think this way, but I'm
telling you as a large fund trader,
1022
00:56:53,250 --> 00:56:54,420
this is the first thing they do.
1023
00:56:54,510 --> 00:56:59,700
They look for a training environment
filter, or if it's in consolidation,
1024
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:04,020
if it's in consolidation, they can not
put money into this until it breaks
1025
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:08,160
out and moves because that's their,
that's their, that's their business.
1026
00:57:08,370 --> 00:57:09,930
They have to be in involved.
1027
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:11,190
They have to be involved in a training.
1028
00:57:12,225 --> 00:57:16,365
Because that's what 95% of
all large fund models are.
1029
00:57:16,424 --> 00:57:17,025
They're trending.
1030
00:57:18,225 --> 00:57:20,355
So if they see this, they're
not going to see this as an
1031
00:57:20,355 --> 00:57:21,555
opportunity to pour money into it.
1032
00:57:22,485 --> 00:57:25,935
They're going to put their money in
where it's already moving, because it's
1033
00:57:25,965 --> 00:57:29,384
already showing a million to, to run
and they want to run with the bulls
1034
00:57:29,895 --> 00:57:31,154
for, they want to run with the bears.
1035
00:57:32,085 --> 00:57:34,995
They do not want to swim in a
small little pond like this.
1036
00:57:36,134 --> 00:57:38,535
It ain't going to move
there's no, there's no stream.
1037
00:57:38,625 --> 00:57:38,924
There's no.
1038
00:57:39,990 --> 00:57:43,380
So you have to go where the large
funds going to go and just assist
1039
00:57:43,380 --> 00:57:47,490
a simple little procedure that
no one looks in their charts for,
1040
00:57:47,940 --> 00:57:49,620
but this is exactly what goes on.
1041
00:57:50,100 --> 00:57:53,070
Then you'll be able to find where
all the big money's being pushed
1042
00:57:53,070 --> 00:57:54,960
in and where it's going asleep.
1043
00:57:56,730 --> 00:57:58,710
So with that guys, I want to
wish you good luck, good trading.
1044
00:57:58,710 --> 00:58:00,540
And I will see you tomorrow.
1045
00:58:00,540 --> 00:58:03,780
We're going to have another session
at 9:30 AM and we're gonna be doing
1046
00:58:03,780 --> 00:58:05,100
the homework for the New Zealand.
1047
00:58:07,004 --> 00:58:09,165
Presentation I did in
lesson one for this month.
1048
00:58:09,585 --> 00:58:12,525
So until then, folks, I will
talk with you all today.
1049
00:58:12,525 --> 00:58:15,225
In the afternoon recap, I'll
send the charts up and all that
1050
00:58:15,225 --> 00:58:19,545
business, but again, tomorrow
9:30 AM Eastern standard time.
1051
00:58:19,545 --> 00:58:20,145
New York time.
1052
00:58:21,134 --> 00:58:21,915
We'll have another session.
1053
00:58:21,915 --> 00:58:23,474
If you haven't done your
homework for the New Zealand
1054
00:58:23,805 --> 00:58:25,395
portion, please try to do that.
1055
00:58:25,904 --> 00:58:30,285
Um, if not, don't watch
this video till you do it.
1056
00:58:30,345 --> 00:58:30,705
Okay.
1057
00:58:30,734 --> 00:58:31,134
No, no, no.
1058
00:58:31,154 --> 00:58:33,555
It's, don't watch tomorrow's
video until you do that homework.
1059
00:58:35,765 --> 00:58:36,424
Good luck training.
89793
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