Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

This is February, 2017.

Lesson one, swing trading.

This teaching's going to be specifically dealing with the ideal

swing trading conditions for anyone.

Okay, what is swing trading?

It's gonna be the discipline of trading predictable price movements in the market.

With a high degree of consistency, we'll be buying.

One is in bold conditions in the marketplace.

Selling short embarrass conditions in the marketplace and swing trading is a form

of intermediate term trading with trade durations of two weeks or longer than.

Okay.

What is the goal?

Swing trading really capitalizing on the effects of larger entities.

Moving into a market and causing a significant displacement in price.

And since trade durations can be two weeks or longer potential rewards, Arkansas.

And trade objectives of 200 to 500 pips and magnitude or

possible rewards for such setups.

Every market isn't ideal for setups for swing trading.

Now you want to avoid for swing trading specifically.

You want to be avoiding favorite markets in general for swing trading purposes.

Larger moves every year, rotate in and out of different marketplaces.

There is no standard swing trading market or pair every three months.

There's a new opportunity formed for swing trading.

What once was a big mover will not always be the next big mover.

This time you have to investigate look deeper behind what

has most recently happened?

Now market profiles matter, markets move from one profile to the next, in all

timeframes in monthly and weekly charts.

Look for the current market profile for your markets of study, avoid lackluster

or lethargic markets to have little to no movement over the last three.

Now market profiles are consolidations where it's range bound, then

there's trending market profiles and there's reversal market profiles.

Now inside of the middle one here, trending.

This is going to be seen as expansion and retracement.

I'm going to talk more about that in the next.

Trending markets equal large flows.

If the aim and swing trading is to position ourselves in moves

that are likely to move at large distance, we should be looking

for markets that are trending.

If a market is confined to an obvious trading range, this does

not indicate it has high odds for directional setup, building your watch

list of markets that are trending.

We're having market profiles that are trending on the monthly end or weekly

puts high probability behind your setups.

When we're looking at monthly charts and weekly charts, you're gonna be looking

for price action to indicate that it's not confined in a small little range.

In other words, it's moved away from a consolidation area already.

Once it's left a consolidation area, chances are we're going to be in a

training environment and it will most likely move to a larger level or PD.

On a higher timeframe, monthly and our weekly, having an understanding that large

flows or big participation by smart money.

That is what pushes these marketplaces only hard timeframes in one direction

or the other that is equated in terms of large flows, trending markets on higher

timeframe charts are indicative of major players buying or selling that particular.

You want to be looking at markets that are trending because that is

the telltale sign, that there are participants in the marketplace on an

institutional basis that are pushing price in that higher timeframe.

Chart trending markets again, that's the profile that you're

looking to participate in since the monthly and weekly charts are.

So long-term, and we're actually taking trades on a four hour basis.

We're going to look for the setups on monthly and weekly and daily, but

we'll execute on four hour charts.

So if we're looking for moose on a four hour basis for entry, monthly and or

weekly chart, we have the great deal probability behind us that the market's

going to move in a trending fashion for.

Now, when we're looking at currencies, we can go through the marketplace

on a monthly and weekly basis and quickly ascertain whether or not

what markets are trending higher, which markets are trending lower,

and which markets are trending in a consolidation or holding pattern.

Marcus they're in large trading ranges.

You want to avoid.

Because it's there for a reason.

If the market's confined to a small consolidation or range bound

environment, it's showing an indication of a lack of institutional interest.

So if the market can't move out of that consolidation higher than there's an

evidence of what a lack of buying, if it can break out that consolidation to

the lower end, it's a lack of selling.

So it's going to stay in a state of neutral.

It can't go higher.

It can't go lower.

So therefore it's going to stay in a range.

That's not what you're looking for for swing trades for

the highest probable setups.

When you have markets that are trending higher or lower on a monthly and weekly

charts, or they have already left a area of consolidation that is indicative of big

players having muscled the marketplace out of that holding pattern or that trading

range or consolidation market profile by having that on our monthly and or weekly.

When we moved down to a daily and or four hour chart, it will help you find set ups

to have a great deal of energy behind it.

So you're getting involved in a marketplace.

It's about to take off and move a great deal of distance on these hard

timeframe, monthly and or weekly charts.

Be willing to err on the direct.

Avoid the temptation to pick market tops and bottoms and price action.

It's far more likely to see the existing long-term trending market profile to

influence price action over a long-term reversal folks from a long-term trend and

the market tide will carry your trade to the winter circle more often than not.

When we look at charts on these hard time, clean monthly and weekly basis.

We're focusing on what's the largest, most strongest directional play there

is because if they're seeing it clearly on a monthly chart, then it's probably

going to move another month, at least.

Okay.

And since we're looking for at least two weeks duration on our trade, the

probabilities are in our favor that we're probably going to get another

continuation of that same previous.

Direction higher or lower.

And again, it's on markets that have already shown a willingness

to move outside of a consolidation.

By having our focus on these long-term trends, it removes the necessity

of figuring out what side of the marketplace you want to be on.

If the marketplace for monthly and weekly suggest that you should be a buyer,

then obviously we should be focusing on being a swing trader on long side.

Now, what that does for you is sometimes it's going to.

Create arguments internally.

You're going to see the marketplace and assume for whatever reason that

there's some evidence that you should not be a buyer and you're going to

resist taking the buy opportunity.

You want to avoid doing that?

Because if you see the movement on the monthly and weekly charts in the kidney,

that once they go higher and you get a bicycle on a daily and or a four hour

chart, you want to take that signal.

If it happens to fail that's okay.

Because you've already adopted the mindset that you're willing to be wrong,

but you're on, you're going to be.

With a great deal of evidence behind you, that you may still be in the right

direction if you take another buy.

But what happens if you take a bicycle when the monthly and weekly are suggesting

it's going higher, say you take a bicycle on a daily or four hours set up

and it stops you out and it's a loss.

Then you take the next.

And it's a buying opportunity and it fails.

What it's telling us is it's probably near a longer term or intermediate

term shift in the marketplace.

And that present bullishness may be waning or that trend may be tired.

So it will give you insight immediately.

It'll give you feedback, but it also is a reminder that you should not be

fearing taking losses because you're going to have them anyway, but it makes

much more sense to be trading on the hard timeframe, monthly and weekly basis.

In that directional bias.

So if we have our trades focused there many times, you're going to see if you

study the moves that take place with a great deal of magnitude are going to

be in the same direction that monthly, weekly charts indicating anyway.

So it makes better sense for us as traders to be willing, to be wrong.

Buying in long-term trends that are higher or.

Being short and long-term bearish moves on monthly and weekly and being

stopped out on our short positions.

It's far more likely that you're going to be profitable and have the move work

out in your favor than it is against you.

And I know it's a difficult thing for some of you to do, but you have to stick to

a mindset and it starts with the higher timeframe, monthly and weekly chart.

Because if we can do this, we will remove all the ambiguity about what

it is that you should be looking.

And this is how it starts.

You start with a monthly and weekly basis and you work down top down now just

simply because the market's most likely to move higher or lower than the chart.

Doesn't indicate that there's a up, there's other things you have to look for.

Look at the Euro dollar monthly chart.

And I want you to take a look at this chart and you can see

there's several different.

Market profiles here, but we're going to focus on the last section of price action

from around the end of February of 2015.

And we'll just use the March 1st, 2015, since this is a delineation

in time from the bottom of the chart and till present time now.

And let's just highlight that now this little section in here,

if I was to ask you, what would you call that market profile?

In this condition right here, this would clearly be a consolidation market profile.

The market's showing an unwillingness to go higher and

an unwillingness to go lower.

It's stuck in a range.

So if it's indicating this on the monthly chart, is this a high probability

market to trade for buys and sells?

Not that it would be indicated on a monthly chart now.

So let's take a look at what's going on in the world.

Okay.

Here's the weekly chart.

And again, here's that same consolidation.

Now one would click to be saying, oh, well, you know, I can see

there several hundred pips is still probable market direction in there.

And that will be true.

The problem is, is this not having a great ease of moving outside of that range?

It's staying in a tight consolidated range.

You can trade this type of pattern back and forth inside the range.

You can do that.

Absolutely.

But when we're swing trading, the best scenarios are the focus on markets that

do not have this telltale hallmark.

You want to be looking for a trending environment, a market

that has able to move on a monthly and weekly basis, because that is

indicative of huge, large flows.

Moving into that particular asset.

Let's take a look at.

Kiwi versus the dollar.

Okay.

Look at this market action in here.

Anything significantly different about that versus what we saw in the Europe.

Obviously we have a market that's trying to go higher.

It has higher lows.

It has higher highs.

It's moving back up.

It's closed in a liquidity void up to the 74 90.

So it's showing a willingness to go higher on a monthly basis.

So is this a consolidation or is this a trending or a reversal?

It's a trending environment for the monthly chart.

It keeps making higher highs and higher lows.

And let's take a look at that same.

Payer on a weekly basis.

Here's that same section of price action.

And you can see it's at successive higher, high and higher, low in this environment.

The market is indicating on a higher timeframe, monthly and weekly basis.

There are buyers willing to buy this particular payer.

Let's take a look at another pair.

It's just a dollar versus the Japanese yen.

This is the monthly chart.

Okay, you can see there's a small little section of price action price was

staying inside of a consolidation and then it left the consolidation abruptly.

Here's that same consolidation here only weekly timeframe.

And you can see it moves several hundred pips higher.

Now, again, it's shown a willingness to leave the consolidation that is very

strong for looking for swing trades.

In this case, you'd be looking for swing trades on the line.

Let's go back to the Kiwi dollar weekly.

And we're going to focus in on this little area right here.

Okay.

So we've already outlined the fact that the Eurodollar was

in a long-term consolidation.

That's not indicative of a swing trading market, but we do have one here with

the New Zealand versus the dollar index.

Now the weekly was indicating that the price for New Zealand

versus dollar was bullish.

It kept making higher highs and higher lows.

So it's having a willingness to go higher on a monthly chart.

So it just kept pressing higher, higher, and higher higher.

So this is a good payer that we can go into further study.

So we're going to go into this chart and break it down in

the form of vertical lines.

Delineating each line represents a new month.

Now, if you look at the bottom of the chart, you'll see

these little orange segments.

That's the next month.

And then he goes another little white square and it's an orange

square white square orange square.

What this is showing is, or basically all I'm delineating is, uh, the first

white square represents the first month.

Then the orange square represents the second month.

The next white square represents the third month.

So I'm showing you a pattern if you will, at what prices has done over

the course of three month intervals.

So what we're looking for is a buying opportunity.

Okay.

And you can see how price offered that just about every three to four months.

So every orange area we saw some measure of retracement, and then there

was a buying opportunity the very next month or inside of the next month.

So every alternating three months or so, there was a new buying opportunity and

price kept pressing higher and higher.

And here's a daily chart.

We're going to zoom in a little bit here and take a closer look.

And I'm also going to give you a little bit of homework assignment.

We're going to talk sleep.

We're actually going to go into this, uh, teaching on Tuesdays live session

of the coming week for the mentorship.

So I'm actually going to give you this homework and we're going to actually

review it as a live session on Tuesday morning, but we have that same.

Area of price segmented in monthly intervals.

So every vertical line delineates, a new month and you see around.

And there's a consolidation or retracement.

It comes back and gives you another buying opportunity.

Okay.

I'm just going to pull it the first one.

That's obvious.

You can see here.

Price comes back and retraces gives a buying opportunity.

I want you to study each one of these and want to review

this in today's live session.

Coming up this coming week.

There's a buying opportunity in here where price rallied away.

Price rallied here

and rallied here.

Right at this point and then give them a buying opportunity there.

I gave him a buying opportunity at that low and at that low as well.

Now, what I want to ask you is looking at this in terms of how much price has moved.

These are swing trades.

That means the duration you're holding is for about two weeks or longer.

By having this view point on price, how long you're holding the trade

and direction you're focusing on.

It gives you an idea where you're looking for the trades and then what

you're looking for a buying opportunity.

The price has to come back to a level of what discount.

Okay.

So if we get a level of discount and the price goes back to a PDF, If we look

at price in terms of the range, if we look at where cell stops are, all those

things, I want you to use those ideas.

Okay.

And his PDRs at each one of these reference points here.

Okay.

I'm going to actually going to go through every single one of these on Tuesdays

live session coming up for this week.

But for now, I want you to think in terms of how many opportunities

were presented in this pair.

I want a swing traders perspective and how many opportunities that

were made available in terms of several hundred PIP moves.

So we didn't see little tiny little moves.

We saw several hundred pips of movement from these loads.

Some of them actually are a little bit longer term and the formation.

So they would have been wonderful ideal scenarios to get in sync with a

long-term or position traders and mindset.

We just closed.

January is content for long-term position trading.

There are opportunities in here where long-term position trading can be.

I want you to think about that as well, try to classify why certain loads would

have been good for those ideas as well.

When we look at swing trading, we're looking at high

probability directional trades.

That's what we're looking for.

We're not looking for range-bound trading.

We're not looking for turtle soup.

To stay inside of a consolidation.

We're looking for strong, directional plays, swing trading model that I employ

is highly linked to directional mindset.

So if I'm looking at a monthly and weekly chart and it's indicating

that it wants to go higher on those terms, those two timeframes, I'm going

to be looking to be a buyer and I'm going to be using all my tools to

get in sync with that buyers mentor.

If I'm bearish on monthly and weekly charts, I'm going to be

looking for all my tools online, I think gave me some sell scenario.

Now, the next lesson we go into, we're actually going to get a little bit

more framework about what it is that we look for to build these ideas.

Not just look at monthly and weekly charts, but bring a little

bit more definition to what it is that we do for swing trading.