Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

This is lesson eight of the January, 2017.

ICT mentorship.

This tutorial is going to be specifically dealing with the

possession trade management.

Okay.

For Bosch market conditions, we'd like to anticipate potential

ballers seasonal tendency.

And again, like I preface it in every one of the seasonal teachings.

It's not a be all end all.

It's not a panacea.

It's just a rule of thumb, a roadmap, if you will, about what may unfold and price

action, just because it's done for the last 40 plus years as mean this year or

next year or the three years from now.

When you sit down in front of the charts, doesn't mean that's going to

be the outcome and you see in price, but we start there because seasonal

tendencies are just that there's a tendency for price to do certain things.

Since we're looking for bullish market conditions, uh, we're gonna

be focusing on the bullish seasonal Tennessee's debt are most likely to

occur in the next three to four months.

We went through some of my ideal seasonal tendencies, which ones

I like and how they go in to the marketplace and look for them.

What we do after we identify what most likely will unfold for a bullish seasonal

tendency is, and we have to look at intermarket analysis confirmations.

Is there something to suggest there really is a bullish technical picture for that

seasonal tendency to come to fruition.

If there isn't any technicals to align with that seasonal tendency to seasonal,

to seasonal, isn't going to drive price, but technicals in alignment with the

seasonal tendency are very powerful.

What is the interest rate market's telling you, okay.

Are our yields increasing because of the yields are increasing, it's going to be

good for the currency that you're trading.

If we see divergence between the yields, that may suggest there's

going to be a shift or a pause in the underlying direction of the

marketplace at the current moment.

When we look at intermarket analysis, we are blending the two of interest

rate yields, and we're also blending the four major asset classes,

the stock market, interest rates, commodities, and currencies, all for.

Together should be confirming your general outlook on the marketplace.

Now you may not get clear pictures from all four, but if you're getting three

indicate that your directional bias for your asset, you're going to be trading is

in fact what they're suggesting as well or confirming, then you probably got a pretty

good trade idea lined up once this occurs.

We go into a hard timeframe, monthly and weekly chart for PDA.

Now, PDA is premium discount array or PD array.

I'm going to be abbreviating that for the remainder of this mentorship.

So that way, when you receive PDA, it's the premium discount arrays.

That means, but order blocks, all the things that I look for for

institutional reference points.

We're looking for higher timeframe, weekly and monthly charts to

indicate where institutional or flow on those particular timeframes.

We'll look to seek the trade to when we understand those two higher

timeframes, then we'll know what the daily chart is going to do.

And we're going to be focusing on the daily chart for a quarterly

shift or intermediate price.

Every three or four months, we're going to be looking for

this new price waiting to occur.

And we're going to be looking at intermarket analysis and

interest rate yields to suggest that is in fact unfolding.

We're not trying to pick the absolute low, and we're not

trying to pick the absolute high.

We are trying to get in sync with that quarterly shift

to get the meat in between.

In other words, the biggest portion of the move.

That's what we're focusing on.

We use the daily PDAs to frame.

Our bullish setups.

In other words, we're looking for or blocks void gaps, uh,

rejection blocks, old highs or lows.

We're looking for those things to, to frame our, by set up, we're

waiting for that to occur based on what we see on a hard timeframes

and with intermarket analysis.

And hopefully.

Uh, seasonal tenancy is also suggesting a bullish move as well.

When we have these things in alignment, we have a great deal

of conferences in our camp.

We're looking for a high probability scenario.

In that case, once you get to this stage, what you're going to have to

do is you're gonna have to determine whether you're going to be a buyer

on a stop or a buyer on a limit.

It doesn't matter which one you'll elect to go with, but just understand that if

you are going to be trading with limit.

There's a probability of you missing mus or missing your fills because

you're demanding a specific price level.

When you go on a buy stop, generally, you're going to end up getting

filled more times using that order.

But unfortunately that creates a little bit more gap in between

where you're entering and where your stop loss is going to be.

If as long as you're not over leveraging your account, which brings

us to how much money should you be?

Risking?

No more than 1%.

And.

Keeping the idea that you're taking big positions in terms of the time

that you're in air, but not big positions in the terms of how much

you're allocating today to the trades.

So you're looking for big moves with a little bit of a, your account by having

that your risk is going to be reduced, but your maximum payout is going to be

massive in terms of how many pips you draw, but still it's gonna be relative

in terms of the percentage, because it's just the nature of this time.

Once you defend me, you're going to be buying on a stock or a

limit, and you enter the position.

You're going to be trailing your stop loss below the lowest low

in the last 40 trading days.

Now this brings us back to the up-to-date range.

Why are we looking for the lowest long, last 40 trading days?

Because if we're looking for a bullish move, the market will most likely not

want to go back 40 trading days to find a low it's going to be looking for the.

In the last 40 trading days.

So that means we are going to have a trailing stop loss order.

That's very handsomely behind the current market price, and it's

going to take a very significant price move to stop you out.

It avoids getting knocked out of the marketplace prematurely, and when you're

trading long-term trends or long-term quarterly shifts, the worst thing that

can happen is get knocked out prematurely and in the market moves take place.

And you miss out on that move.

In this timeframe, you are not looking to trail your stop-loss ultra tight.

You have to have some freedom in the market.

You can't just let it, you can't demand really ultra tight

stops in long-term trading.

You've got to allow it to move a little bit gyrate pool

back against you sometimes.

And initially when you first get in the trade, you just

got to have to weather that.

And unfortunately it may not be your cup of tea, but that's

again, the nature of the beast.

Once the.

Starts underway.

And you start moving in your favor.

If it moves 50% of the rains that you expect to see unfold on the monthly

and or weekly chart, because that's what you're actually trading off of.

You're executing on a daily chart.

Once that range moves to 50% of what you expect to see in terms of

profitability, say, say it's a 500 pit range or a thousand PIP range.

If it moves, if it's a thousand foot range we're referring to, if

it moves 500 pips in your face, You need this still consider what the

lowest low was in the last 40 days.

Your stop-loss is going to be below that.

But when we get above 50%, then we're going to be looking for the

lowest low in the last 20 days.

Once we get about three quarters of the way of the tire, weekly, monthly

range, you want to start trailing your stop loss below the most recent

low in the last 20 trading days.

Okay.

And I'll talk about that in an examples in a moment.

You're permitting price to seek out the liquidity on the upside and giving

it a lot of room to consolidate.

If it needs to, before it goes another leg higher.

If you keep your stop loss below the lowest loan last 40 trading

days, you're going to have a better chance of staying in the move and

not being stopped out premium.

Okay for bearish market conditions, I could probably just save this slide

and decide everything I just said for the bullish, just reverse it.

But for completeness sake, we are being paid to do this now.

So I want to give you both sides.

Uh, the bearish market conditions.

Again, we're anticipating a potential bear seasonal tendency that we're

focusing on the bears tendencies that have the most ideal conditions.

What times of the year are they expected?

We already know what they are.

We went through those in three teachings.

And once we understand what is most likely to occur seasonally again,

we're just looking for first there.

Then we're looking for intermarket analysis confirmations.

Is there a suggestion across all four major asset classes, currency

markets, interest rates, commodities, and as the stock market or the all

in agreement with the expectation you have for the next three to four.

And if interest rate yields are confirming that direction as well, interest rates

rising or, or increasing or decreasing, is that salient to your expectation

for the bearish move that you're trying to take on for next quarterly shift.

If this does align, then we go to the hard timeframe, monthly and weekly, and

we start looking for the ranges and we look for the PDA for monthly and weekly.

Objectives, institutionally, where are we looking to go?

Well, how far are we looking to go down?

Where are the old lows?

Where are.

The bullish shoulder blocks, where are the liquidity voids on the downside?

Where are the fair value gaps below us?

Where are the mitigation blocks and potential breakers?

We have to be mindful of that.

All those ideas.

We have to start mapping them out because they're either going to be speed bumps,

or they're going to be rocket fuel for our next price leg in our bears expectations.

So we have to be mindful of them going forward.

We'll have them already in our charts.

We won't be surprised by them.

And once we have all these ideas, then we can expect that

quarterly shift to take place.

And then therefore have an intermediate term price swing moving over the

course of two to three and potentially four months at maximum, where we

see a bearish move take place.

Once we have the scenario outlined, okay.

And we expect the monthly end or weekly range or swing to take effect.

What we're going to be doing is focusing on the daily chart and we're

going to be utilizing the daily PDAs.

That means that.

Premium discount arrays, or basically we're looking for bears order blocks.

We're looking for bearish liquidity voids to fill in.

We're looking for old highs to sell above.

We're looking for rejection blocks above and old highs handles body.

And we're looking for a bearish breakers trade into a we're looking

for mitigation box to trade against and sell off of all those ideas.

We're looking for that on a daily timeframe to get.

With the move we expect to see unfold in the monthly and weekly charts.

So we're using the daily PDA, the frame, our bearish setups.

Once we have our set up, what we're looking for is the determination.

Are we going to be selling on a stock or are we selling on a limit order?

And that's going to be a matter of personal preference.

Again, like I said, with the bullish market conditions, if you're

going to be selling on a limit, chances are, you may not get your.

So just take that in consideration.

And if you're 100% certain, you have to have the entry selling on a stop

is almost a guarantee you're going to get that fill because you're

going to be selling on weakness.

And once that price is triggered, you'll be short again, but it opens up

a little bit more risk from where you enter and where your stop loss needs

to be, which brings us to, once you're in the move, you're going to be using

a trailing stop loss above the highest high in the last 40 trading days.

And what that's going to keep you from having happen is a premature stop out.

You don't want to get knocked out of the market before you

actually see the move transpire.

You don't want to have any opportunity for the market to have a move

against you and see it take off.

Once it knocks you out.

It's not, it's very frustrating to see that happen.

And if you wait a long time for these long-term setups to get a

set up, just to get knocked out prematurely, you've exercised so much.

To get to that stage, then the once get in it, and then it knocks you out worsening

in cafes, you get fearful or never get another opportunity to get back in and

it takes off and runs away from you.

Then you have to wait for another higher level objective to get in to.

And then you obviously lose some of the potential profit, but then unless

you could still get into the positions, but it's nothing worse than that.

And then having all the analysis done the homework, the patients factor

and get in the market top notch out prematurely, because you're trying to

have too much of a tight stop loss.

You don't need to do that one hard timeframe trading.

In fact, it's better.

If you keep a wider stop and you try not to rush to move it up to break, even

because breakeven on long-term trading, he says the worst thing they possibly

you ever considering you don't want it.

So we're going to trailing your stop loss above the highest high

in the last 40 trading days.

And by doing so, what you're doing is, is actually giving the market room

to breathe and move around when you identify the range at which you're

trying to see unfold on a monthly and or weekly chart, when the price

moves 50% of that range in your favor.

Okay.

Now, once it's moved half the, this, you thought it was

going to even at that moment.

Okay.

You're still going to be using the highest time last 40 trades.

Your stop is going to be above that.

Okay.

Cause you're not trying to get knocked out once it moves to about three

quarters of the range that you anticipate seeing, then what you're going to be

doing is you're going to be looking for the highest high in the last 20

trading days because you're getting really close to that ultimate objective.

And it may not really.

So you want to lock in as much profit as possible if you use the highest

high in the last 40 trading days, and you've seen three quarters of the move,

you may see a deep retracement that may be ended up becoming the actual

reversal that you didn't expect to see, think like optimal trade entry.

It can go 79% of the total move you expect to see, but then

fail and go the other direction.

And you would just be knocked out with a great deal of more larger

loss by using that trailing 48.

Uh, About the highest high and last 40 trained days by reducing it to

only 20 trading days, we're using IPTA procedures for data ranges, but

we're using measuring the ranges.

Okay.

And greeting the scale of how far that move has already happened.

When we start getting mature in our move, we want to start locking in more

aggressively that, that position, but we're only going to drop down to a 20 day.

Look back once we get to three quarters of the moves that we expect to see.

Then we have to start dropping back in terms of how, how far we go back

in terms of using a stop loss basis.

We're not want to use 40 trading days, the entire duration of the trade, but

when you get three quarters of the move under our belt, you know, obviously

we're going to be looking to lock in some of that profit and keeping it

from moving a great deal against us.

So by using a 20 day, look back every single day while we're in the trade wants

three quarters of the move has been seen.

What you're dealing with is you're ultimately bringing that stop loss

closer to the market price, but not so close to it, knocks you out.

If it does knock you out.

And it goes below a 20 day, low chances are you probably made really

handsome profit, or you probably saved yourself a complete reversal

and Watson, he rode more profits.

If you would've stepped, this kept that, that 40 trading day high.

So let's take a look at a couple examples real quick.

And then we'll button this January teaching up.

Okay.

We're looking at the Japanese.

Janice is a weekly chart and we have the high up here and we have these

equalizers, as we talked about during the live, uh, teachings of the mentorship.

And then below these equal loads, we have these two candles, which

makes the bullet shorter block.

And what we're going to do is we're going to benefit of Nachi just to

grade the scale of this entire range.

So we have this hot.

All the way down to this low.

I'm sorry, this is high rather this candle, and that gives us a range

low, and this is our range high.

Okay.

And here's equilibrium right in here.

Okay.

So we're looking at this move here.

After market structure has been broken.

We have this swing low here.

It's violated here, and then we have a rally.

So we're going to be looking at this high in here one a day.

I'm looking for an ultimate move down to this level here.

So we're going to go to a daily chart now dropping down into it, and we're going

to be looking at the sell side first.

Okay.

Here's that move?

We'll refer to this in a minute.

When we get to the, um, the buy-side objectives, but here we have this high.

Price has the, um, the break and market structure here.

And we have a rally up.

He goes into this last up candle, which is a PDA on a weekly basis.

And it's also a PDA for the daily.

And it's a bearish order block for us here, trades right up into the body of

this candle, which is the open comes in at 1 21 69, the high on this case.

Comes in at 2172.

So only three pips higher than this opening price at that candle

here, we have the up candle.

So we're going to be doing what we're going to be deciding if we're going to

sell short, want to limit Rumi selling short either on a limit above this close,

or we're going to be selling on a stop.

Yeah.

Which one are you going to do?

But what we're doing is once we get in, we have to use the high

in the last 40 trading days.

I have here a range that's already been created with 40

great here.

So there's 40 trading days from this day here, which is the trade day

here because you have the candle.

This is the day you would trade.

Look back 40 days.

Your stop loss has to be above.

So your range of risk is framed out for you by doing this.

And let's say you want to sell him a limit.

He have a stop loss of 250 pips.

You gotta be above that.

Say 260 pips.

That's your stop.

Okay.

Some of you, you're probably cringing with that 260 pips.

Good grief as long-term trading folks.

I mean, you really got to change your way of thinking about it.

It's not going to be the same as it was when we were discussing

complete, uh, intraday action.

And then you can do things like this.

You can go here is one

to.

For

5, 6, 7

E.

And we won't get nine.

Is this fall short of that?

Okay.

So we have basically eight are on this trade.

That's falling short, even at the objective.

So we can have a, that went off here and here's a.

Right there.

Okay.

So selling short up here, we have eight times, 260 pips.

Think about that.

That's a massive move.

Okay.

It's huge move.

Okay.

And as you trade this,

what you're doing is, is you're you're continuously every single time

you look at the trading day, you're in, you're going to be looking for.

And again, I have another ranger here with 40 PIP, 40 trading

days, range or approximation.

Let's say it like that.

Okay.

Every trading day, you're going to keep looking back.

What was the highest high in the last 40 trading days?

Okay.

Each trading day, you're looking at the right end of this here.

Okay.

Every single trading day, you're looking at the highest high and you're

keeping your stop loss above that.

Whatever that whatever the high is.

Okay.

Like right in here, looking back in the last 40 trading days,

your stock is above this high.

At this point here, we had that real deep trading retracement.

Your stuff has gotta be above these highs.

Okay.

This is where we actually hit the objectives.

So anything past that, it doesn't mean anything, but at this moment here,

your stop has to be above this whole.

So it keeps you from getting locked, knocked out prematurely.

And again, eight times 260 pips.

That's this huge, huge move.

So we're going to focus now on the buy side and we saw that weekly

bullish or blocked down here, and we expected that to trade back up to the

weekly bearish order block in here.

Your.

Looking back 40 trading days.

You're biased, uh, by position.

Has it protected cell stop below these lows in here.

Okay.

If you bought in here before the election, and we had that big wild whipsaw, even

with this wild whipsaw, if you would've bought this day here, when a limit

below the close here on the limit on this candle, if you bought here on this

candle on a limit on this day here, yeah.

You would have saw profits and then on the election.

You would've rode through all this.

Probably would've been scary for you, but even then 40 trading days back,

your stuff has to be below here.

So you're not knocked out.

Long-term you're in there.

And again, the same thing you're looking for the lowest low when you

buy it in the last 40 trading days.

Like for instance, if you bought here, your stop has to be below this low.

Let's see which one's lower.

This.

Hello is 1 0 9 19.

And then you have this candle here.

Yeah, one to nine 19.

So it's got to be below this low here, and you have another

buying opportunity on this day.

Here again, your stop still stays below here on this day.

Again, your stops still stays below here on this day.

Here.

The lowest low in the last 40 trading days is here.

But we have to change gears.

Now, once we get half the range,

I'm going to add a fib to this.

We have our low

oh.

Here and once price trades through this, here we start looking back 20

trading days and we start telling our stop loss below the lowest

low in the last 20 trading days.

So we get 20 from here.

Your stop loss has to be below here on this bind day here,

the last 20 trading days.

Your staff also below here this day here, the last 20 trading days is still below.

This day here, the last 20 trading days stop loss has to be below here

and on this Jane Day, your stop loss has to be below this trading day slow.

And after that, it just hits the objective, the weekly bear shorter block.

So again, above halfway point, you want to start trailing your stop loss.

Below the low of the last 20 trading days.

But prior to equilibrium or halfway move, you want to be 40 trading days back using

it, the daily ranges, because it's not likely it's going to seek that liquidity.

It's going to be seeking the liquidity above the 40 day

highs and above the 20 highs.

And it's gonna be looking for the 60 day high.

Now you can see how that if the daily range comes into play

using these higher timeframes.

So until we talk again, I wish you good luck and good trading.