Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

This is less than 4.1 implementing macro analysis for me, teaching,

applying seasonal tendencies to higher timeframe, you know?

This module can be teaching Bush seasonals in higher timeframe analysis

gave you probably seen this chart before.

I've made a available a few of these templates over the years, but

we're going to teaching specifically only on the buy side for seasonal

tendencies in this teaching.

And we're using the Canadian dollar.

Did we get.

And what this is is it's a 40 year seasonal tendency where the price

on bullshitters and bears years have been compiled and compressed into

a file where the output gives us a tendency for what price usually does

for each contract delivery month.

I'm going to get into that in a minute, but before we get into it deeper,

let's bring up some points here.

The seasonal tendencies are merely a proverbial roadmap of past.

And they are not to be viewed as a panacea or be all end all concept.

Despite what you may see in this teaching and the subsequent teaching in 4.2,

please let me remind you that simply because it's done something in the past,

doesn't it in any way guarantee is going to do the same thing in the future.

This is just one more tool to add a confluence of things that will

already leads you to an expectation of the market should go higher up.

Okay folks, this is the Canadian dollar 40 or seasonal tendency is the expanded

view of the same chart you just saw.

And I want you to take a look at something real quick up here.

We have, it says March abbreviation, June abbreviation, September

is abbreviation December.

And then back to March again.

What this is delineating is the contract delivery months for the Canadian dollar.

Now currencies, they deliver on March, June, September, and

December, every single year.

These months expire.

These charts that I'm sharing with you are a compilation of

data over all the delivery months.

Price action for the last 40 plus.

Beginning in 1976.

Now this data is only compiled up to 2015, but I can tell you that

the output is hardly changed at all.

If you're concerned about it being 2017, is there any, is there any deviation now?

There's not any deviation at all.

So how do we look at these things and what, what benefit does it give us?

Well, let me ask you a question.

If you were to, if you were to ask the average trader.

That just now getting into trading.

Maybe it's not Forex, maybe it's stocks or commodities and you ask them, Hey,

look, if I were to ask you today is the market's manipulated to the degree where

well, before price ever starts to track.

It's specific time of year.

Would it be inclined to go higher or lower based on some underlying influence

that repeats itself as a new trader?

I can tell you, I would have never answered that question with, yeah,

I could probably agree to that.

Uh, I, it felt like a random thing to me.

And one of the things that I liked about seasonal tendencies is it gave

a characteristic to price that proved to me that there is a rhyme and

reason behind everything that goes on.

If there's something that's missing.

And again, this is 40 years worth of data.

Okay.

40 years worth of data in the blue line.

The red line is a 15 year average.

So you can see between looking at 40 years worth of data and 15 years worth of data.

There's very little discrepancy in terms of what the overall

strong seasonal tendencies are for this particular currency.

Now, since we're primarily dealing with bullish, seasonal tendencies

in our timeframe analysis for this module, we're going to.

Not focus on bearish patterns, what we're going to be looking for tendencies

that lend well to being a buyer.

And if we're going to be doing higher timeframe analysis, and we want to

be buying on these higher timeframe charts and using it for ideas for being

positioned, trader looking at this seasonal tendency, I'm going to ask you.

Time of year.

Now, time of year is going to be delineate the bottom of the chart down here.

You can see it's all data here.

December, November, October.

This is all calendar month based.

This is contract delivery months.

Okay.

And you can see the vertical lines delineating.

When that contract March would end trading here, that would be the

beginning of June's trading contract.

And then June would end here and it would pick up at September's contract.

And so on going through that, this is on Saturday.

If I were to ask you what would be your first choice in deciding

when would be a good time to buy?

Well, if you're paying attention, you could see that this is probably a

really good time to be buying around.

mid-March all the way up into the may, June time period.

So between March.

And June there typically is a strong tendency for the Canadian dollar to rally.

Now some of you may think to yourself, well, that's great.

You know, if this is the contract month for Canadian dollar, um,

w what does that mean to me if I'm not really a futures trader?

Well, the main thing is, is this is the seasonal tendency that you would expect.

Canadian dollar futures to rally.

Now it does not mean that it's going to rally every single year, March to June.

Doesn't mean that it just means that there's a strong probability that

historically looking back over 40 years worth of data and comparing

it against 15 years worth of data, there is a strong underlying dare.

I say it.

Element of truth to the fact that there is a tendency for this to rally problem

is if you're not a futures contract trader, this doesn't do anything for you.

Or does it, if we are trading foreign exchange, we have to

remember that the Canadian dollar is paired with a dollar index.

Now the dollar index is the first and then in the pairs name.

So that means if we're bearish on Canadian dollar, the U S CAD is going to go up.

If we're bullish on Canadian dollar, that means the U S CAD pair is going to go.

That means Canadian dollars and Polish while that would

suppress the us dollar index.

So since the pairs name begins with us, dollar opposite would be seen in what we

expect to see in the futures contract.

Well, we have to do is focus in on a seasonal tendency on the

futures contract that shows us a bearish tone in the marketplace.

So you can see we're here between September and around Christmas time in

December, there typically is a strong tendency for Canadian dollar to decline.

In the underlying futures contract.

So we have to take this into account when we're looking at foreign exchange,

because the U S CAD pair is an inversion of what the futures contract shows

for Canadian dollar futures price.

So if there's a strong tendency for September, October, November, and December

to have a decline in the Canadian dollar, that should be a bullish scenario for us.

Let's take this over to the charts and see if this in fact has any validity to it.

Keppra focusing on the bullish seasonal tendencies, we have our us CAD chart.

This is a weekly chart, and I went back to 2008.

Just to give you a nice sample size, that data.

And I started the line at the beginning of.

And I carried it out in time to about midpoint of December.

You can see that shaded area all the way to the left here.

This is when we'd expect to see the Canadian dollar to be bearish on the

futures underlying contract price, but because we're foreign exchange

traders, we have to be looking at it to be reversed or inverted.

So that means it would be bullish for the U S Cadbury because

this is how we're trading them.

Us against the cat.

So this is the buying opportunity that would be presented and look at the, look

at the performance here on us CAD as a relationship to the seasonal Tennessee.

Look how strong that buy was.

Look how many pips it moved notice also in here, this is the next time

period, the very next year in 2009.

This is a time when the seasonal tenant should, should take place.

And that means the Canadian dollar should be bearish on the underlying

futures contract, but that would be an inversion on us CAD pairs.

That means we would expect bullishness in here now, while we didn't press up

to make new, higher highs, there was a nice little pop, nice little rally in

here, but overall the direction was down.

So you can see how the seasonal Tanzi really wasn't much help in terms of

seeing much like this higher prices.

Very next year, same thing.

Week it was lower.

Now I'm going to ask you a question.

Look at these last two years, what was the underlying price

direction on the weekly chart?

Was it bullish or bearish?

Bearish has been going lower.

So would you be focusing on buying that time of year versus looking

for opportunities to be a seller?

There's a hint for the next authorial 4.2.

Going to 2011, we can see that the seasonal tendency had a really nice effect

here after we made a nice low and market structure shift to the bullish side.

Institutional order flow is now bullish.

And during a time of year, when the underlying futures contract

for Canadian prices should be going lower, that's bullish for us Kat.

So if we're in a foreign exchange trader, we're looking for buys, we had

to look for weakness and the online futures contract with the Canadian.

That would propel price higher at a time of the year when we

would expect prices to come in.

Same thing here, the very next year, 2012, we can see price again, rallied

up during this time of the year.

And now we're still bullish.

Now look at the effects of the seasonal tendency.

Again, we have a low and it starts rallying up again.

Again, same time a year, September to almost Christmas

seasonal tendency rallies.

Again.

Again, same time period here, rallies again and again, 2016 just passed.

We have a nice rally up here as well.

Seasonal tenancy coming in once again, strong.

Now, looking at this again, let they remind you what

we're looking at is underlying weakness in the futures contract.

So if it's underlying weakness in the futures contract for the

Canadian dollar, the inversion puts it to a bullish stance for us.

Kat.

So it's very important.

That's why I taught this one specifically, because I'm showing

you how we have to take the seasonal tendency from the futures contract.

Some of the majors that are paired with a dollar, their currency start with us CAD.

So it's going to be an inversion.

So what you would expect to see in the futures contract has to be

reversed in some of the currencies that are paired up with the dollar.

So now by itself, it doesn't mean anything, but, uh, coupled with other

things like quarterly shifts, I remember that every three or four months, there's

going to be a move on a hard timeframe.

Now we're adding another dimension to that.

It's one thing to expect to move every three to four months.

But where is that move going?

What, what should we be focusing on?

Should we be buying or should we be selling seasonal tendencies?

Give us a roadmap to help build the idea that okay.

There's certain quarters of the year that we want to be a buyer

and there are certain quarters of.

That we want to be a seller and we anticipate this year in and year out.

The only difference is, is we're going to be looking for markets that

already predisposed to go higher.

And in couple of things that with the bullishness of seasonal tendencies,

if we're looking at the Canadian dollar, we'd have to reverse it.

Look for weakness in the seasonal tendencies, on the underlying creatures

contract, and then apply it to us cat as bullishness, because it's an inversion

of futures, contract prices for Canadian.

If we see times when the Canadian dollar is bullish underlying us CAD pair and

this seasonal tendency, September to almost Christmas, every single year,

there's a strong tendency for it to be bullish between that time period.

That means there's many weeks where you can be a bullish us CAD trader.

If the underlying.

Pair of us.

Cat is bullish.

This is going back several years.

And I only gave you this sample size because if I'll give you any more

data, it'll ruin all discoveries.

If you go back and study it for yourself, but you can see here clearly many

instances when the underlying market moves are in line with the macro trend,

seasonal tendencies are absolutely a barn burner for delivering what you should

be doing for each quarter of the year.

In this case, you have alluded.

If you're looking for a buying opportunity for us CAD it's between September and

getting close to Christmas every single year, when the market's predisposed

to go higher, what quarterly shifts are you going to be looking for now?

Looking for long.

Okay, so now we're gonna look at a market it's closely

related to Canadian dollar it's.

Number one, export is crude oil, and here we have another example.

Just as, as a supporting idea, if he looked at this market over here, you

would expect to see bullish prices or a rally in the crude or market.

And that rally comes in around, coming in about mid February, going into March

and carrying into may June time period.

So we're expecting bullishness in the crude oil market.

And since.

Canadian dollar generally moves almost in tandem with oil, the strong

tendency for the Canadian dollar, the rally and the crude oil market

to rally at this time of year.

That means we have a March to June, basically a bullish effect for Canadian

dollar and cradle coupled together.

It has a strong tendency, but again, because we're looking at Canadian dollar.

In the foreign exchange market, this would have to be reversed.

So we'll say that study for you.

In addition to what's already been presented here, but I want to show you

the futures contract price for crude oil between around March to June time period.

Okay.

Here's the crude oil market, the weekly chart, and others went

back to January of 14, 2014.

And obviously you can see here, this is a bearish market here.

It's been in a longterm downtrend when the collapse in the oil

market from around 1 0 5 level.

But let's take a look at the bullishness of that seasonal tendency again, looking

for that March to June time period.

Okay.

So here's March all the way through to June and you can

see the rally in the room.

Right when it made its high in the 2014 time period, and the next year

we'd be looking for the same seasonal tendency between March and June.

A little bit better than the 1st of July.

We could see it again here, rallies, once more, even in a bear market, it's still.

We don't force the trades, but I'm just showing you that seasonal tendency that's

existing in the marketplace that should convince you that there is an absolute

program to everything that goes on.

Despite flying demand factors, there are very routine things

that take place and they repeat themselves over and over again.

And again, in 2016, we have March to the 1st of July and

completing the whole month of June.

You can see that rally again comes in for crude oil.

Now, my question to you is this.

If you can see these opportunities repeating themselves based on the

data that I'm sharing with these reports and seasonal tendencies.

Is it hard not to feel like their treasure maps, because that's exactly what it felt

like for me as a young man, when I was in my twenties and I saw these seasonal

tendency charts and I immediately pushed them aside for a first couple of months.

And then finally I got into the study of seasonal tendencies and I realized.

Quickly right away that there is something to them now immediately I've lost money

trading them in, in the beginning.

I had no idea what I was doing.

I just thought every time it would work.

So therefore I loaded up the boat and traded way too many things.

And too many times got burned doing it.

It's up on the back burner until I realized there's this quarterly shift

that takes place in the marketplace.

And I matured now and I can look back and I can pick out where

the highest probability seasonal tendencies are for certain types of.

Certain markets have really strong, seasonal tendencies to move a

specific three to four month cycle every single year when it's bullish.

And when it's bearish, if we can focus in on those quarters on

those particular currency payers or those asset classes, we have.

Loaded deal in the form of odds.

It doesn't mean it's going to be profitable every time.

It doesn't mean as a guaranteed it's going to be, uh, accurate.

It just means that we have a high odds probability that our prognostication

will lead us to a successful outcome.

This is just one example of how.

Correlated pairs between Canadian dollar and cruel both can lean well

with one another in terms of seasonal tendencies and even in the bearish

market that crude all markets spin in, you can see the nice big rallies.

Happened to script with a seasonal tendency.

We're going to teach more about this in module 4.2.

And we're gonna talk about the bears this as well.

And in that module, I'm actually going to share all of the seasonal

tendencies I have for all the currencies.

And until next time wish you good luck and good.