All language subtitles for Lesson 2.2 10year Note Part 2

Welcome back folks.

This is less than 2.2 of the
January of 2017 and 18 mentorship.

We're gonna be looking at qualifying
trade conditions with the 10 year.

K the previous teaching 2.1, we had looked
at the 10 year note seasonal tendency, or

it has a strong tendency to rally in June.

And we're looking at the 10
year note for September, 2015.

Here, you can see how during the
month of June of 2015 tenured note

did in fact make a low in June
and while the seasonal tenants.

Is enforced.

How do you know that seasonal tendency
is most likely going to occur?

Well, the first step is you want to
start looking to qualify the swings in

relationship to the dollar index and that
seen by looking at these lower lows here.

So our delineation begins at the beginning
of June, 2013 and subsequent lower lows

that transpired after June, 2015 began,
we started seeing a slide in price.

And took out the low from may,
but individually there was five

to six different candles that
progressively kept making lower

lows in the first half of June.

That's being delineated here, but this
short little trend line now in the

dollar index, this is going to be ideally
seen with a series of higher highs.

That's how market symmetry
should be posted in delivered in.

But let's take a look at what
actually happens in the dollar index.

At that same moment, we can see that the
dollar index for June, 2015, immediately

to the right or after June 1st trading
day, we were making lower highs.

So this is a crack and correlation
and we have confirmation.

Now there is a trade idea unfolding in.

10-year treasury note
against the dollar index.

It's further confirmed by

seeing the interest rate market declining.

At that time, as the yield declines,
the futures price on the 10

year note was actually rallying

noodles.

But the consolidation that the
yield stayed in, which also led

to a consolidation in the dollar
index 10 year treasury and foreign

currencies at the same time in 2015.

Okay.

We're looking at the June of 2016.

Again, we're looking at
that seasonal tenant.

I've seen here, the market
was making equal lows, so they

should be seen in respect to the
dollar index with equal highs.

Here's the dollar index
going into June, 2016.

Do you see here, the
market made higher highs.

This is a cracking correlation.

The market's shown a willingness to go.

Higher and the dollar index, but
it was not seen in the form of

going lower on the 10 year notes.

That's it correct.

And correlation there.

Therefore it is a qualifying
condition that there is an

underlying trade underway,

and this is further confirmed by visually
seeing the interest rate market, seeing

it decline in the 10 year yields.

And again, notice the consolidation
while it looks like if he's zoomed

in really tight, it would look
like an uptrend, but we're still

in a rather large consolidation.

And that is attributing factors
to why the currency markets had a

consolidation this period of time.

Lastly, we have.

The ten-year treasury note,
March contract, the 2017,

we have a lower high.

Now I know you're looking at that
big wick on the elections, but dis

dispel that for a moment, focus
on the market structure alone.

Without that WIC, we have lower
high formed in the first couple

days of November, relative
to the mid October highs.

So that should be seen.

Supported in the dollar index as well.

Just contrary.

In fact, we see a lower, low, so for the
dollar index to have a lower low here,

we've, should've seen a higher high form
in the 10 year note that didn't happen.

We see the opposite with a
lower, low in dollar index.

We don't see the higher high in 10 year
treasury notes, as you would expect to

see what the lower, low and dollar index.

Again, it's going to be a mirror image of
everything you see for perfect symmetry.

When that symmetry is broken, it
indicates there is a underlying

trend or manipulation on.

You don't have to see the open interest
decline in November supporting the

idea that there was a short covering
by the smart money and the dollar index

moved up as a result again, because
the 10 year note was in a move that

was trending and had more range to go
lower that supports the trending move

on a dollar index, where it was allowed
to trade for two complete months.

And you can see it's supported with.

The increase in the interest rate yield
on the year note during a time when the

dollar rallied markets seek, he healed.

And if the interest rates increasing,
therefore the dollar has a strong

tendency to want to rally as well.

Now, as a side note, when we see these
things occurring in the price, you

want to be blending these ideas with
the quarterly shift concepts that's

been taught in this month it's content.

So if we're looking for.

The next three to four
months, potential next swing.

Not that we're holding for
that period of time or our time

horizon is three months out.

Generally, it's going to be half
that timeframe for the trade setups

to come to fruition and complete.

Sometimes the trades will last longer
and go full duration of three months

and sometimes a little bit longer.

But as I mentioned in this
mentorship, my time horizon is.

Three months.

I think it's pretty much, it's realistic.

It's going to get cause long-term
trends while they all generally

stay in a long-term trending
environment, they can reverse.

And if it's in a long-term uptrend, you
don't want to be trying to pick the top.

So it's important that I remind you
every time we talk about this, that

my focus primarily is looking at a
time horizon of three months with the

expectation I'm going to trade with the.

Uh, position that may go up
to three months, but rarely

admittedly, I don't hold that long.

Uh, usually half that timeframe, but
you can go in and look at these times

when the seasonals align and there
are qualifying SMT divergence between

the dollar index and the 10 year note.

When they have that pattern there, you
can also qualify it with an industry.

Triad, or you can go into a four X
currency pair and look for the SMT

divergence against the dollar index.

That way, those ideas blended together.

Not that you need both of them,
but one of them will give you a

qualification for a trade idea that
may be unfolding for a quarterly.

Like getting in sync with the marketplace
like this and viewing the higher timeframe

charts with these tools in alignment,
it gives you a trades high probability

and it filters out a lot of noise.

And even if you don't trade in a long-term
position capacity, you can use these ideas

to get in sync with higher timeframe,
trend, or higher timeframe order flow.

And by doing that, it puts all that.

Swing trade short-term trade
day, trade and Scouts in line

with institutional order flow.

And with that, it's very hard to go wrong.

Not perfect.

It doesn't negate the opportunity for
you to lose money, but it certainly does

put the odds in your favor until the next
time, once you good luck and good trading.