Original subtitles

Got new folks.

Welcome to a new week.

Today's Monday, September 10th, 2018.

Brooklyn economic calendar can be a little bit of news.

Come out on GBP today, which lent well to an upside move, which we'll

look at when we get to the charts.

Tomorrow's economic calendar.

We have more high-impact news and a medium impact news for DVP average earnings in.

During the London session, then we have on Wednesday, uh, crude oil inventories

opportunity for dollar CAD pair there.

And we have news embargo lifting at 8:30 AM for New York open PPI numbers.

So we should see some movement in the majors against a dollar on Thursday.

This is going to be the firework show.

Um, we have GBP, uh, I think we'll probably see some rather

explosive movement for cable.

I think it's going to try to catch up to your dollar this week, or at

least it gives me the cation by way of the charts that it may try to do.

So, so we have monetary policy and official bank rate, and then we have.

The Euro ECB press conference, and later on CPI, number four, the dollar.

And then we have an FOMC member to actually speaking at 10:00 AM and 1:15 PM.

So Thursday's going to be a wild, wild circus.

It's going to be a lot of volatility on that particular day.

So it's going to be beneficial for you to try to take.

Position early on and maybe leave a piece on to capture some

continuation on Thursday's volatility.

And in Friday we have bank of England speaker and then core retail

sales for the news at New York open and then retail Sayers, a number

is linked to the dollar index.

So we'll probably see some last of the week.

Flurry of price action.

Best opportunities are to look ahead of what's going to

most likely move in Thursday.

That means positioning on Tuesday and our Wednesday, and then taking hopefully a

large portion, 80% or more of your trade off, and then leave the remaining balance

on for the expansion that is most of the Shirley going to happen on Thursday.

So let's go through the charts and take a look.

Okay folks, we're looking at the dollar index is the daily chart.

We're going to keep our analysis on the daily for this week.

I want you to focus on the hard timeframe PE rays and the levels that we're

looking for for price action this week.

All right.

So we were kind of like stuck in this little, tiny little range in here.

It looks as if we've had these high.

This high price ran up, hit our 96 98 level.

Go back and look at their videos back then.

You'll see what that levels pertaining to went back below it.

Hit it here, swept through a little bit in here, failed to get into it here.

It looks like this is the dirty work for right now.

Okay.

So this may be a quarterly shift in play for a week or dollar

this being an enemy entered.

Long-term.

Hi.

No, I'm not calling up top.

And the dollar.

So be very careful about what I'm saying here.

I am only looking for a run to the sell side.

Liquidity holes noted here.

Now this one's not noted because it's essentially here as well, but

I really, I really like this one.

Okay.

I really liked this one.

I liked the liquidity void.

It's over here as well.

There's this my eye.

Every single time I pull up the daily chart on the dollar.

My eye goes right to here.

Okay.

And.

Sure we could have moved higher last week, but we didn't.

Um, we did rally a little bit.

We didn't go a great deal of distance and we moved basically sideways.

Okay.

So I'd like to see it continuously move lower and make an attempt to

get down here and run these stops.

Even if we are eventually going to go higher.

For instance, say we go down here, take out these lines.

We stab through it.

Don't go to these lows at all.

This goes through here and it rejection trades higher.

That to me would be bullshit.

I'd be looking for the 90 sevens.

Okay.

On dollar, because it has stayed in this little tiny range here, but we

are still looking at a larger draw on liquidity that has not been tapped.

That means the sell side liquidity pools that are shown here on a daily chart.

Those are.

In my opinion, the most logical levels of reach okay.

Where the market's wanting to go to.

Uh, the reason why I say that is because it's the path of least resistance.

So if we don't have a whole lot above us in terms of liquidity,

that reach for, because we only have that 96, 98 in this short-term high.

Uh, to me, that's not as juicy as it would be to take out the trailing

stop-losses on long say you had been long dollar, so a run on here or run

on here and specifically aiming here.

I'd like to see that transpire over the course of the coming weeks.

Uh, obviously what the bank rate for GBP and the news from ECB this week,

there could be all catalysts that leads to a large range expansion.

On the dollar, which would obviously translate in the same thing, performing

currencies, I E fiber and cable.

So going into this week, you focusing primarily for setups on Tuesday and

Wednesday and looking, hopefully peel off something, maybe leave 20% of

the original position on for maybe a little bit of a firework show on

Thursday, because we have all that economic news coming out that day.

Uh, I'd like to be able to hopefully have something in the market or on the

line for Thursday's volatility, but having something greater than 20% of the

original position, if you can muster that.

In other words, if you can get something in and pull something out of the market,

initially during Tuesday and Wednesdays trading relative to the, what we're

describing here, it would be beneficial for you to take the lions portion of the.

Off at 80% and then go into Thursday's trading with a small piece or exercise,

uh, you know, patience and discipline and say, I'd rather not be a part of that.

And just take the full position off on Tuesday or Wednesday, and

you can get your opportunity.

Should you get one at all?

And there's no real guarantee that you will, but we always have

to think in terms of optimism.

Right.

So you're a dollar we're looking at, um, another consolidation week for it.

Uh, we did not have an expansion on the upside.

We didn't really respect this or block all that much.

Um, we did come down and sweet the low here and the low here with today's candle.

Um, I'm going to share with the charter members, the 1 15 30.

Run to liquidity and all of the things that are sailing about that move.

I mentioned on Twitter, one of their students said that they were looking

to cover a year, a dollar short.

And my response was that I was expecting to go about 30, more pips new south.

And that really essentially winds out with 1 15 30 and 1 15

30 is really just this little.

Okay.

If you look at that, um, that is 1 15 33.

So if we're looking for a run on liquidity below 33, what would the round

number or five level be next below it?

Third.

Okay.

So today's low is only one pit lower than that.

And I think if we went a 1 15 29, so again, I have notes on my lower

timeframe for the charter members.

So we're just going to keep our commentary, uh, specific

to the daily because that's where we're trying to teach.

For directional bias and higher timeframe, institutional perspective.

So I think that we have these by stops in the cross hairs.

We have obviously this old high as well.

It just it's too, too clean up here.

You know, even if we go up here to end in and completely reverse in that would

be reasonable then, but I just don't like this idea of leaving these equal highs

in here, even if we were going lower.

Um, I don't know.

I just think that it makes more sense for it to run up there and clean that up.

I do like the consolidation we had here in a drop down to me.

This is like a longer term fractal.

I teach for the Judas swing.

Okay.

So we have a market protraction, it drops down, picks up some

liquidity and then expands back up.

Uh, we do have a short term swing high broken here.

And here.

So we had to more or less two stages of market structure breaking to the upside.

So even though we had these equal lows here, uh, violated today

and rejected, uh, that's actually constructive in my opinion.

So I'd like to see it more or less, try to grind house.

And get into these buy-side liquidity pools up in here.

Um, again much like a showed with the dollar index.

Um, I like these equal highs, which is more or less the mirror image of what

we see in the dollar, but in the form of equal highs here for, uh, Euro dollar.

So I think that focusing this week still with a model.

Bullish expansion.

Um, that to me, that's what I'm personally looking for now.

What changes that if we take out today's low.

Okay.

If we trade lower than this and then we'll probably go, I'm going

to have to come back all the way down into this level here.

And that high is 1 14 45, which could be 1 14 50, if it trades to that point.

Um, It will probably want to rechallenge that low at a later time.

But right now, as it is respecting the current market structure,

seasonal tendency now is in play.

Um, we do have more or less neutral status on the cot for fiber or your dollar,

uh, in terms of the futures contract.

But we do have a pretty modest, um, not much.

We have a, a pretty major.

Met long position by the commercials in the British pound.

So if we use that information to me, it warrants at least a probing

of long, still in Euro and pound.

But given the market structure, that's shown here, I'd like to see

again, today's low, be maintained, not traded below, and then expand up.

I think we'll pick up some acceleration.

Should we get above this candle here?

Okay.

Uh, there's a lot of large funds that will be buying strength.

Okay.

Breakout type thing.

If they see a run up above this high here, there's going to be a lot of.

Great in there.

And we're so close to this high here, which has been again, very close to

the proximity of these equal high.

So I think once we get above this high here, then we can really expand and

have large range day or the days plural.

But until we get above this high here, we'll probably to see small

ranges and the big run up into here.

Because once they start really getting above this high here,

they don't want anyone that's short to take their stop-loss off.

They're going to want to leave it in place.

Okay.

And the only way they do that is if they get to it quicker than they can pull it.

So that's what I'm looking for for your so small ranges, biases upside, but

large ranges after this heist broken.

And I gave you the reasons, uh, just now for that thinking, uh, cable.

We did see a nice pop today.

We have again, some clean levels and here we did reach above these

equal highs here for intraday target, but I like these equal highs.

Um, Narrative on what I showed with the equal lows for the dollar index.

Again, buy-side liquidity pools resting as noted on the chart.

Um, we do have the swing high here and the swing high here.

So we have two stages of market structure to the upside being broken.

Um, I'd like to see this one, really try to, um, move more or less.

Uh, more explosively than Euro dollar and everything it's in play for the

cot suggests that is most likely going to happen because the commercials has

shown, um, I think it was last week.

It was, if it's not forgive me, it's, I'm so scatterbrained because of all

the admin stuff that I got to do around this time of the month, the commitment

traders report, a graph that posted in the most recent, um, Weekly commentary

for the pound pound had a really nice net long position by the commercials.

And it's respectable now coupling that with what we've been following

for here for a couple months.

Now we are in a bullish seasonal tendency.

So now here we have, we have market structure to the upside.

We have liquidity pools noted.

Okay.

We've been watching them for months.

We have seen the market structure.

Support the idea of the bullish seasonal tendency.

And now we also have the positioning of the commitment of traders report showing

commercials, net long, heavily net loan.

So they have bought all through all this decline.

Now, the way they get out of that net long position is as prices starting to rally,

they will start selling off that net loss.

Where do they want to sell it above these highs, these highs, and this

high, this high, and even back here, if they can get up to it

and get back to this inefficiency.

So I'm looking and I'm trying to find that quarterly move to the upside.

We may have it, but we actually have to be mindful that, that our economic

calendar this week suggest that we could have a pretty explosive.

Move in cable from a macro standpoint, look what we have in play.

They have commercials.

So then once we have the smart money positioned well ahead, we

have the market structure break.

We have a seasonal tendency.

That's bull.

And we also have clearly defined liquidity pools for the dollar

index from a contrarian perspective.

In other words, if we're focusing primarily look to be long on cable, then

that means we are bearish on dollar.

And because of our counterparty PD, rays and areas of liquidity, where

it's going to be a draw on price.

In other words, the buy stops here for cable and to sell

stocks for the dollar index.

We have not as clean as I would like to see it for a symmetrical.

Price action.

Everything being perfect.

Uh, we don't have that, but we have as close as we can get to it.

And all of the other factors involved.

So we're trading into the third quarter of the year.

Everything just to me is indicative of worth a shot to take along this week

and expecting the data on Thursday to support that upside objective.

That being targeting these by stock liquid pools as noted on a longer term horizon.

And I can only see beyond.

Um, this high here going to these equal high.

So that's that's as far as I can see as the best case scenario for upside

upside expansion, uh, what changes that is if we trade below today's low.

Okay.

Cause that means we only went above here and we did some

kind of a sloppy run on stops.

And then it's just going to continue and move lower.

I don't favor that.

I favor an upside move in pound and we can.

And selling off in the dollar.

That's I think that's the side of the marketplace I

would want to be focusing on.

So I'm going to counsel you guys to look at your price

action and your demo account.

With that perspective in mind, if we have anything, um, of worth for study

or reflection, I will share it by way of Twitter, by the way, with link.

And then till I'll talk to you next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.