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Welcome back folks.
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This is ICT with a weekly recap for
the week ending November 18th, 2016.
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Okay.
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For the last two days we've been
monitoring the British pound USD.
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We were tracking a short
trade from 1 24 45.
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I tweeted that entry and a 30 PIP
stop-loss and targets of 1 23 75
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and 1 23 50 as downside objectives.
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Now the trade panned out over the
course of a little over a day.
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So we're gonna have to go
through to the mechanics.
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So why I suggested that as a study
for your, uh, for your learning,
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00:00:35,610 --> 00:00:38,220
uh, but we're going to go onto the
daily chart of the dollar first.
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Okay.
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We had, uh, the dollar looking to
potentially sweep above that 100 point 55.
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Yeah, that was our initial
objective for the week.
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Uh, prior student, in fact, that trade
up into that on Wednesday and Thursday
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we had through, and then today being
Friday, we traded all up to 1 0 1 50.
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So we've had strong.
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On the heels of the Trump election.
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So we had a movement to, uh, to the
dollar index as a result of that.
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We saw the rejection very strong
off of here last week, and that
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momentum has been relentless.
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It's been straight up.
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It's been very, uh, you know,
hard to fight this trend.
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I tried earlier this week
to do that very thing.
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And every time I did it, it was
quickly given to me by way of.
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So I was able to mitigate those losses
this week and come out with a profit
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for the week, rather handsome profit
mother packed, but let's take a look at
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the 30 minute chart on the dollar index.
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And today we saw price initially,
poke its head above previous days.
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Be traced down into a shorter blocks.
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So we're gonna use a horizontal
line to denote that level here.
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The open comes in at 100 point 84.
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The low on today comes in at
100 point 84 to the PIP again.
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Okay.
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So we, we had this oral block here and
gives us bullishness on the dollar.
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It gives us bullishness on a dollar,
and if it's going to be bullish on
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the dollar, that means it's going to
be weakness on foreign currencies.
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Now, before I go to cable, Your dollar.
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Now, last week we saw the market
clear, these equal highs, and we see
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that rejection here and the momentum
has been again much in the same way.
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Just reverse what we saw in a dollar
index, uh, for bullishness on a dollar.
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We're seeing weakness on the Euro dollar.
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Um, we had this down candle
in here as our objective.
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00:02:36,645 --> 00:02:40,845
And then now we're going to be looking
for a moot down below that 1 0 5 40
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00:02:40,845 --> 00:02:43,965
level, uh, that may be seen next week.
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00:02:44,325 --> 00:02:47,445
Um, but then we have a lot
lower targets than that.
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00:02:47,985 --> 00:02:49,755
If you go into a weekly chart,
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we have an own low back.
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At 1 0 4 64.
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So we got 1 0 4 65 to one to
four 50 downside objectives
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from where we're at now.
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00:03:08,315 --> 00:03:10,925
So we have, we have a lot more
range of trade on a downside.
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00:03:10,925 --> 00:03:13,745
So next week we still are
only focusing on shorts.
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00:03:16,355 --> 00:03:18,845
So let's go back and take a look at.
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Euro and hourly chart.
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All right.
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So we have the week here, um, market
opens up one Sunday, goes into Monday.
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Strings is midnight in New York,
each candle, the vertical blue
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line, delineating midnight in
each day, Mondays chambers soft.
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And then Tuesday we had.
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And traded above the weekly open.
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00:03:42,995 --> 00:03:46,505
I had a short position in here,
which is essentially just a scalp.
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00:03:46,505 --> 00:03:51,605
I was doing these trades in here to
neutralize the, uh, the down I absorbed
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on the Monday and Tuesdays trading
market trades lower into Wednesday.
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00:03:59,765 --> 00:04:02,735
And then Thursday,
yesterday we saw the market.
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00:04:03,485 --> 00:04:06,215
Trey back up into a bear shorter
block, closing this range in here.
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00:04:06,215 --> 00:04:10,475
Now again, think about the things I talked
about in month, September, what you're
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00:04:10,475 --> 00:04:15,275
specifically supposed to be focusing on,
because a lot of you are actually looking
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00:04:15,275 --> 00:04:18,545
for something new when really that's the
only thing you should be focusing on.
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And that's the reason why I told
you that you have to be primarily.
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The things that's going to be
utilized throughout this mentorship.
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So having these two up candles
here to lower, the two is
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where the order block begins.
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They are shorter block.
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It means they're.
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So they sold it when price rallies.
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With these two candles and slammed down.
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So they were selling in this move
up to price trades back up into
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that range of these two up candles,
closing the closes in this void.
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The market sells off
yesterday rather aggressively.
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Now that was a tip off that I had.
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Sure cable, because we had a bullish
dollar that was relentless going higher.
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00:05:05,515 --> 00:05:10,705
I saw that the Euro dollar had
already broken down and they were
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allowing the Euro pound to move.
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00:05:16,030 --> 00:05:19,539
So they're going to have to hold cable
and a consolidation until a later time.
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00:05:19,599 --> 00:05:22,060
So if you're a pound is going
to drop, that means you're
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only going to drop itself.
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And it's current in this currency
pair here, Euro versus the dollar try
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00:05:27,310 --> 00:05:31,150
and go rower while they hope it is
pound USD and arrange in that will
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cause your Pam that pear to drop.
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Since we had a big range yesterday in.
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So you look at the cable and I'm
going to zoom in on this daily chart
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on, we'll talk about a couple of
things that we mentioned this week.
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We are looking at this down candle
and I said, if we'd lost the upper
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portion of that range or the main
threshold, which is what we saw.
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Okay.
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So on Tuesday we saw that
entire daily candle eventually
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00:06:01,355 --> 00:06:03,665
moved down to this low net.
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00:06:03,665 --> 00:06:06,665
Low comes in at 1 23 77.
100
00:06:06,995 --> 00:06:10,085
So that's well below what's shaded
in here as the main threshold.
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00:06:10,565 --> 00:06:13,925
That was the crack in market
structure that you have.
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Now.
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You want to look for cells.
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00:06:16,325 --> 00:06:16,685
Okay.
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So on Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, The movement up from
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the open creating Judah swings.
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And now what's false rallies.
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Okay.
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To sell into let's go
into a 30 minute chart.
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Actually.
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Let's go back to the wheelchair her quick.
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Uh, we ha we saw the lows in here.
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Okay.
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Coming in the form of 1 23 50.
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00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,830
That's our objective while prices up here.
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00:06:41,980 --> 00:06:44,650
So we know our known
objectives down to one twice.
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50 or lower.
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And the next objective would be
the 1 23 20 level institution.
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And then 1 23 big figure.
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00:06:52,935 --> 00:06:56,534
We still have this block here
to trade into next week and
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that candles high and it's open.
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00:07:00,164 --> 00:07:03,914
I comes in at 1 20, 2 66, and
the open comes in at 1 20, 2 30.
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00:07:04,335 --> 00:07:07,125
So we're looking for 20 to 30 is
a downside objective next week.
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00:07:07,155 --> 00:07:07,485
And.
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Uh, we're looking for 1 20, 34
pound dollar and continuation
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00:07:15,255 --> 00:07:16,305
on the upside for dollar.
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00:07:18,015 --> 00:07:20,775
So again, let's go over
to a lower timeframe.
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You can see the short at 1 24 45.
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I gave you on.
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That was essentially hinged on this
candle right here is down candle.
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The open on that candle.
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I'm sorry.
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The close on that candle is 1 24 47.
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00:07:42,645 --> 00:07:46,545
So I wanted to be in before that
level, which is the body of the down
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00:07:46,545 --> 00:07:51,105
candle, which is a breaker, a down
candle right before an old highs,
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00:07:51,105 --> 00:07:52,515
violet, which is this old habit.
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00:07:53,590 --> 00:07:56,320
It violates that high just by a little
bit, but it's all, it's nothing.
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00:07:58,304 --> 00:07:58,575
Okay.
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00:07:58,635 --> 00:08:02,775
So the high here pierced this old
high and it starts right here.
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00:08:03,645 --> 00:08:06,585
So when price broke down, once it
traded back up into that, on this
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00:08:06,585 --> 00:08:10,784
candle here, I want to be selling short
and I sold two separate positions,
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00:08:11,025 --> 00:08:17,145
one standard lot, and one position
entry and another on a separate entry.
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00:08:17,145 --> 00:08:21,495
So I had two full standard,
lots on at 1 24 40.
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00:08:23,185 --> 00:08:27,805
The first one I peeled off here, guys.
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00:08:27,805 --> 00:08:31,555
I took that position off in
me, full position, exited off.
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00:08:31,555 --> 00:08:33,865
Didn't take much more than acts.
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00:08:33,865 --> 00:08:37,164
I wanted to hurt and pad myself out
because I didn't know if it was going
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00:08:37,164 --> 00:08:40,405
to come off a little bit deeper and
trade into this bear shorter block.
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00:08:40,435 --> 00:08:43,135
So I had to protect myself
in a little bit with that.
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00:08:44,515 --> 00:08:46,315
Then I had multiple
positions where scaled.
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Oh, that remaining standard lot.
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That's a small portion
of it off here, here.
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00:08:58,900 --> 00:09:04,900
And I had small Marine portion
on looking for 1 23 75.
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00:09:05,850 --> 00:09:09,630
And you guys can see that on the,
uh, on the Twitter feed, y'all
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00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,040
gonna fill this video with all that.
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00:09:11,610 --> 00:09:15,780
But then I had a 1 23 50, we were
looking for that objective to be met.
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00:09:15,810 --> 00:09:18,960
And as we drove down through
it, I covered on the remaining
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00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:20,760
balance of that short position.
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00:09:21,925 --> 00:09:25,015
So I did not hold for the 1 23 20
level, which would be logical below
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00:09:25,465 --> 00:09:27,835
2351 continuation movement lower.
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00:09:28,345 --> 00:09:30,805
And now do not hold anything
for the 1 23 big figure.
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00:09:30,805 --> 00:09:32,875
Now had it been Thursday, I would
have held on for a little bit
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00:09:32,875 --> 00:09:37,045
more, but given it's Friday and I
had to earn my stripes this week.
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00:09:38,235 --> 00:09:43,095
With this cable tray, because it had
to work out a lot of price action here.
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00:09:43,575 --> 00:09:47,325
So I'm going to take off everything,
go down into a strip default chart,
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00:09:50,325 --> 00:09:54,165
and I'm going to show you the
framework with this trade.
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It's a blank naked chart.
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00:10:00,285 --> 00:10:03,285
So here's that down candle rate
for the mood it takes out previous.
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00:10:03,285 --> 00:10:04,875
Hi, this is.
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Okay.
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So we see price trading up
into that right here, and then
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ultimately falls out by itself.
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00:10:15,180 --> 00:10:16,500
That was enough for me to take the trade.
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00:10:17,310 --> 00:10:21,540
That's why I chose 1 24 45, because
I wanted to make sure I had an
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00:10:21,540 --> 00:10:25,739
entry and I was willing to assume,
or you pips of movement against me.
176
00:10:26,550 --> 00:10:26,910
Okay.
177
00:10:27,930 --> 00:10:32,099
We'll talk about today's trading in a
minute, but I want to go back out to four.
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Okay.
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00:10:33,175 --> 00:10:39,355
So we're the four-hour chart
and you can see that rally here
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00:10:39,835 --> 00:10:42,235
that took place on the 17th.
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00:10:43,285 --> 00:10:46,885
The up candle was broken on the downside
here, and then we traded back up into it.
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00:10:46,925 --> 00:10:53,305
This candle here, you went right up
into about 50% of that bodies range.
183
00:10:53,595 --> 00:10:56,695
And that was just entire range, not
the low or the very high, just to.
184
00:10:58,255 --> 00:11:02,995
The halfway through that, that's
what this movement was seeing.
185
00:11:03,475 --> 00:11:05,695
So I knew about 30 pips was about right.
186
00:11:06,395 --> 00:11:09,865
So I took in, I, there was no guarantee
I wasn't going to get that entry.
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00:11:10,075 --> 00:11:13,105
If I was going to wait for a higher
price, obviously in hindsight, you can
188
00:11:13,105 --> 00:11:16,105
look and see that it would have been
better to get a higher price to get short.
189
00:11:16,795 --> 00:11:20,185
So I want to make sure I got in and
had something to allow the market to
190
00:11:21,115 --> 00:11:22,585
eventually roll over and go lower.
191
00:11:24,415 --> 00:11:25,315
We go into an hourly.
192
00:11:31,845 --> 00:11:32,205
okay.
193
00:11:33,635 --> 00:11:35,685
You see the price on this candle here?
194
00:11:36,285 --> 00:11:40,155
The low is at 1 24 62.
195
00:11:46,785 --> 00:11:48,585
dye comes in at 1 24 63.
196
00:11:48,585 --> 00:11:51,645
So one pit hired is necessary
to retrade back to this bear.
197
00:11:52,805 --> 00:11:56,435
You could have did a 1 24
61, 24, 55 as an entry.
198
00:11:56,885 --> 00:11:58,235
And it still have been
really good for that.
199
00:11:58,295 --> 00:12:06,395
Um, as a means of getting short, not using
the 1 24 45 level that I used and price
200
00:12:06,785 --> 00:12:09,335
breaks down lower, and then let's go into.
201
00:12:11,089 --> 00:12:12,620
Specifically today.
202
00:12:36,439 --> 00:12:36,589
Okay.
203
00:12:36,599 --> 00:12:37,729
So we have the opening.
204
00:12:39,020 --> 00:12:43,430
And what we do is we take that
opening price and we draw that
205
00:12:43,430 --> 00:12:44,810
out across our daily range.
206
00:12:46,550 --> 00:12:50,900
Now think the catalyst behind the
idea is that we have a boast dollar.
207
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,090
We've already seen Euro dollar breakdown.
208
00:12:54,110 --> 00:12:58,579
We're seeing the movement yesterday,
justifying the short position for cable.
209
00:12:59,030 --> 00:13:02,540
People still has an old low back here
that it has to violate and go, go below.
210
00:13:02,569 --> 00:13:03,620
Looking for cell stops.
211
00:13:05,030 --> 00:13:09,319
We have a low, a lower objective
at 1 23 54 cell stops as well.
212
00:13:10,425 --> 00:13:14,714
But looking at what we shown going
into the day we had yesterday's low.
213
00:13:14,985 --> 00:13:17,535
And then, uh, early on in Frankfurt.
214
00:13:18,074 --> 00:13:19,905
Now the market dipped below by pepper too.
215
00:13:19,905 --> 00:13:21,555
And it rally off aggressively.
216
00:13:22,275 --> 00:13:25,875
I actually shown and we got
to a 15 minute timeframe.
217
00:13:27,885 --> 00:13:28,604
Here's that opening price.
218
00:13:29,385 --> 00:13:35,145
And during London, I tweeted this run here
and in one more time here, turtle soup.
219
00:13:36,015 --> 00:13:36,285
Okay.
220
00:13:36,285 --> 00:13:40,635
And then he came back one more time to
blow out the stops, right above that.
221
00:13:40,635 --> 00:13:43,694
For those that wanted to be
short, whenever they come back.
222
00:13:44,445 --> 00:13:45,795
That is a telltale sign.
223
00:13:45,805 --> 00:13:48,645
It's going to go aggressively
the opposite direction.
224
00:13:49,125 --> 00:13:50,355
The premise was still the same.
225
00:13:50,715 --> 00:13:52,665
We were looking for lower prices.
226
00:13:53,265 --> 00:14:00,405
So we had 1, 2, 3 times, and that pattern
is actually called a three drive or what?
227
00:14:00,405 --> 00:14:04,455
I learned it as a three Indians
pattern from the streets, marts
228
00:14:04,455 --> 00:14:07,605
books by Linda Raschke and Larry
Connor's, which is really cool.
229
00:14:07,605 --> 00:14:08,865
It's a nice little climax reversal.
230
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,330
And you want to learn more about that?
231
00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:13,020
You can read that book.
232
00:14:13,020 --> 00:14:13,560
It's pretty cool.
233
00:14:14,010 --> 00:14:16,440
But the, the market breaks down.
234
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,680
Once it gets down below the opening price.
235
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Now it does it here.
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Yes.
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And it started rallying out.
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Now once they started rallying.
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In my mind thinking, okay, well, they're
going to come back up here and take these
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stops, but it shouldn't rage higher.
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Shouldn't do anything like that.
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But I knew because this exercise was being
asked of you to be participating in and
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some of you reluctantly didn't do it.
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00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,620
And for a demo account, you
know, there shouldn't be any
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fear or trepidation about it.
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He's getting ready to do it.
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And that's the benefit of
being in mentorship because
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I'm teaching you where this.
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And you're going to desensitize
yourself from seeing that fear
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00:14:54,420 --> 00:14:58,860
that comes up in your, in your
perspective, you can't lose any money.
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00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,939
So why are you being fearful about
you're in a demo account you have to
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00:15:03,420 --> 00:15:07,110
get in here and desensitize yourself
by taking the trades and feeling what
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00:15:07,110 --> 00:15:08,910
it's like to take on the position.
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And.
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You have to hold onto it and
release that sense of you have
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to know what's going to happen.
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You don't know what's going
to happen and you never gonna
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know what's going to happen.
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00:15:17,250 --> 00:15:21,060
So the only way you're going to benefit
from this mentorship is by participation.
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There's no magic kind of just watching the
videos and it downloads into your brain.
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You know how to trade.
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You got to participate.
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00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:28,090
Okay, so you have to do that.
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00:15:29,470 --> 00:15:32,140
So the market comes back, takes
their stops and then rolls over.
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00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:37,890
And once it takes this low out here,
Marc structure for the day is now the
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00:15:37,890 --> 00:15:44,050
mark explodes goes rower, screaming down
for the 1 23 75 level initially, or they
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00:15:44,050 --> 00:15:49,870
sell stocks which were residing ripple
at least two equal lows, 2350 level.
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00:15:51,235 --> 00:15:56,245
2320 was taken and it ultimately
all the way down into 23 big
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00:15:56,275 --> 00:16:02,694
figure at 1 22, sorry, 1 22 99.
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00:16:03,415 --> 00:16:11,574
And then we've seen a bounce in
the, uh, the cable, the 2350 level.
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We can see that in the.
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00:16:20,194 --> 00:16:23,974
You get back out to the daily.
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00:16:28,115 --> 00:16:29,165
That's this low here.
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00:16:30,125 --> 00:16:35,675
So liquidity below the daily
lows at 2350 work targeted, but
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00:16:35,675 --> 00:16:37,685
yet we still have some downside.
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00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:46,580
That we're going to be watching for
next week in the form of 20 65, 20 30.
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00:16:47,810 --> 00:16:51,680
And then we have all these clean
rows down here going into this
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00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:52,940
old, low back here during the.
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00:16:54,575 --> 00:17:00,125
So we will be seeing, uh, one nineteens
revisited probably before Christmas.
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00:17:01,625 --> 00:17:06,875
And that should be, uh, seen going
forward, uh, through our CAD.
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00:17:07,925 --> 00:17:09,665
We've seen price, uh,
continued to move on.
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00:17:12,895 --> 00:17:17,395
I was identified this a
fair value gap down here.
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00:17:18,325 --> 00:17:21,415
Didn't get down there, but it
did trade into this or a block in
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00:17:21,415 --> 00:17:22,605
this bullshit or block as well.
285
00:17:22,825 --> 00:17:24,175
Take the opening price, draw that out.
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00:17:24,685 --> 00:17:25,224
It nails it.
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00:17:26,220 --> 00:17:28,020
And then a nice big response off of that.
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00:17:28,379 --> 00:17:30,389
So it didn't get down to the level I
was looking for initially, and I really
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00:17:30,389 --> 00:17:32,010
wasn't interested in trading dollar CAD.
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00:17:32,010 --> 00:17:36,210
So I think realistic development,
more analysis behind it.
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00:17:36,220 --> 00:17:40,350
I was seeing this level here, but because
of my reluctance in wanting to trade
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00:17:40,350 --> 00:17:41,970
it, I really wasn't that interested.
293
00:17:41,970 --> 00:17:45,389
So I just stayed sitting here
for hindsight benefit only.
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00:17:45,870 --> 00:17:48,240
Um, I do see that we do have equal high.
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00:17:48,855 --> 00:17:53,475
Let me take this off, that equal highs
here, and we have equal highs here.
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00:17:53,475 --> 00:17:58,365
So we're probably going to be looking
for a run up next week into those levels.
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00:17:59,205 --> 00:18:04,395
Uh, so keep an eye on 35 90.
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00:18:13,820 --> 00:18:15,020
55 65.
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00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:22,580
So 35 65 upside 35, 90, 30, 4 36, big
figure upside objectives for next week.
300
00:18:23,260 --> 00:18:28,010
What changes that tone is if we
get borough these loads in here
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00:18:28,070 --> 00:18:30,710
and come back into this range here,
because then it's not going to be as
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00:18:30,770 --> 00:18:33,290
bullish as I am seeing it as here.
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00:18:35,315 --> 00:18:40,295
Uh, going back out to dollar
daily, um, for months, for months
304
00:18:40,625 --> 00:18:42,605
since the summer and spring.
305
00:18:43,415 --> 00:18:48,935
And actually before that, we were talking
about, um, $1 mark on a dollar index
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00:18:48,965 --> 00:18:51,605
and then one oh twos and one to fours.
307
00:18:51,615 --> 00:18:52,625
And if we get extreme blow.
308
00:18:53,250 --> 00:18:56,070
Uh, potentially 1 0 7 $1 index.
309
00:18:56,070 --> 00:18:59,250
So nothing's changed long-term
again, we're calling parody on
310
00:18:59,310 --> 00:19:03,210
Euro dollar with the dollar and,
uh, it can certainly do that.
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00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,260
Um, I don't think it's going to happen
before the end of the year, but it
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00:19:07,260 --> 00:19:08,820
certainly can surprise everyone and do it.
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00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:14,280
Uh, you know, as we get closer to,
uh, the end of the year, things
314
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,820
will probably, um, you'll start
seeing a lot of profit taking.
315
00:19:19,045 --> 00:19:22,375
Short positions because yeah, it
is isn't in the year phenomenon.
316
00:19:22,375 --> 00:19:26,245
So it doesn't change the tone for what
we see going into next year, which is
317
00:19:26,245 --> 00:19:29,665
again, until everything changed for
the dollar, it's going to be bullish
318
00:19:30,175 --> 00:19:32,755
and we're gonna be looking for sell
signals, swing, trade, short term,
319
00:19:32,755 --> 00:19:34,885
and day trades or foreign currencies.
320
00:19:36,235 --> 00:19:39,265
And with that folks, I'm going to close it
wish you a very good weekend again, remind
321
00:19:39,265 --> 00:19:40,435
you whenever I give you an exercise.
322
00:19:41,314 --> 00:19:43,324
Uh, it's for your benefit to participate.
323
00:19:43,504 --> 00:19:46,745
It's not as good as it is.
324
00:19:46,774 --> 00:19:49,594
If you don't participate, going
back and looking at hindsight,
325
00:19:49,594 --> 00:19:51,455
doesn't have the same effect.
326
00:19:51,905 --> 00:19:58,115
So I gave you a lot of free time
to be looking at the marketplace in
327
00:19:58,115 --> 00:20:02,044
this trade exercise, because it's an
opportunity to see how the market.
328
00:20:02,810 --> 00:20:09,500
Allow the Euro dollar to decline
first and then cable was allowed
329
00:20:09,500 --> 00:20:11,659
to trade lower as a result.
330
00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:17,629
So I'll, I'll speak more on that, uh, this
Sunday for a pre-market, uh, radio again,
331
00:20:18,110 --> 00:20:20,810
not looking for specifics that we're
gonna be watching going into next week.
332
00:20:20,810 --> 00:20:23,810
I did a little bit of a brief
summary here, but I'll go into a
333
00:20:23,810 --> 00:20:27,680
little bit more specifics and some
views on what I think may unfold.
334
00:20:28,340 --> 00:20:28,610
Okay.
335
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:29,270
With that guys.
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00:20:29,270 --> 00:20:30,649
I wish you good luck and good trading.
28234
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