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Okay folks.
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Welcome to the January, 2017 ICT
mentorship long-term analysis lesson 1.1.
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We're teaching implementing macro
analysis, and this teaching is
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quarterly shifts and APTA data ranges.
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The quarterly market shift.
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Okay.
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If there is an algorithm, if our
belief is that there is a automated
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price delivery engine that takes
care of providing efficiency in the
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delivery of price, uh, the efficiency
of trading at every potential.
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Trading price available per asset.
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Uh, we're gonna be dealing specifically
with Forex for this teaching, but the
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effect of a quarterly market shift
is universal in all asset classes.
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But I want to ask you a question
just for a moment, try to
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imagine the world as investing.
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If it were all completely random,
if the market and in fact was
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random, how could anyone reasonably.
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Have an edge.
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Think about it.
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Statistics really?
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What is it?
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You're still counting the odds
of something that's already had.
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And attributing that to
some future unseen event.
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So there's no guarantee that just if the
markets were completely random, if we had
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based our system, if our analysis concepts
are based on the effects of randomness
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in the marketplace, we're left with the
conclusion that yes, things may have
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happened 50 times as their last 60 times.
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And therefore an edge could be.
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Uh, defined, but that does not equate to
future events to have not been seen yet.
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That's the false hood of teaching.
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The idea that the markets are completely.
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If the markets were in fact completely
random, I myself would never have an
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interest in them because I would have
new trust in the fact that there was any
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measure of prognostication that would
fulfill a profitable condition as now.
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My belief is that the
markets are 100% engineered.
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They're absolutely controlled to the
very PIP in the foreign exchange market.
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I've proven many times in the
past, over many years, how we can
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call specific price levels to the.
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Sometimes it varies a little
bit, many times going right to
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the PIP as an exit or a target.
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And my opinion about that is if I
can do that multiple times throughout
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the year, that in itself, regardless
of what I believe, I'm going to be
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able to communicate to you from my
understanding about the marketplace.
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If I could do that, to
me, that proves that are.
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In fact zero randomness to the
marketplace, because if it was randomness,
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I could not be that precise about
my forecasts and where I believe the
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market was going, going, going to go.
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If we understand and can agree
that the markets do in fact have a.
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Element of control.
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And this is in the form of a price engine
algorithm at the central bank level, they
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set the price, they allow the markets to
move to a predefined that range for the
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day, for the most part, or sometimes that,
uh, things may occur that they send the
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price outside of the predetermined range.
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But for the most part, the interbank
price delivery algorithm or.
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Has data ranges that it works within
and by understanding what those ranges
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are, we can go into the marketplace
with a pre determined idea where
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the algorithm will do its work.
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Where is it pulling the information?
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Yeah.
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What dates, what ranges and what
specific highs and lows is the algorithm
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reaching to as a reference point.
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That's what this teaching's going
to talk about specifically today.
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I want to remind you, and I've
talked just briefly about this
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in the free tutorial section.
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As I was going through all the teachings
I provided for the online committee.
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As it trades the, uh,
foreign exchange market.
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I teach it, there is a market
structure shift that takes place
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every three to four months.
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And for the most part, that's
universal doesn't apply just to
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the foreign exchange market, but
it does apply to all asset classes.
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This effect takes place because the
market has to generate new interest.
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It has to have a new sense of urgency.
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Uh, a missed opportunity
is a lost opportunity.
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In many people's eyes as a trader.
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So the markets have a tendency
to move around and gyrate around
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every three or four months.
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What was true or what was seen as a
directional movement in the marketplace
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over the last two or three months.
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I may not in fact be true for
the next coming two to three or
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four months in market direction.
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So I'm going to counsel you to always
look at price on a macro level.
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That means a monthly, weekly, and daily
timeframe and learn to anticipate.
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Intermediate price swings.
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It doesn't matter if the market is
predisposed to go up on a primary
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bullish market or a primary down
market, you can still fair it out.
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Rather significant intermediate
term retracements in either
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strong uptrend or down trends.
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If you understand this.
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You'll also be able to weather the
deep retracement sometimes in long-term
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position trading that is required.
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You'll also understand that
by understanding that there's
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intermediate term retracements
on these hard timeframe levels.
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And if you're a long-term position
trader as this month is aimed at
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teaching, you'll also have no problem
and no emotional commitment to.
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Not holding the position forever, but
in fact, taking some of the position
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off, waiting for that retracement,
and then going back in adding that
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same position you just took off
or a portion of that position off
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your long-term position trade.
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And in adding it back in to
recapitalize on that further movement.
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Every three to four months, there's
going to be a change in direction.
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It may cause a consolidation,
or it may cause a retracement
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of whatever price swing has been
unfolding up to that moment.
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The fact that the market isn't a primary
uptrend or a downtrend, that's going to be
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the, whether or not the market has a deep
retracement on a hard timeframe basis.
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Or if it goes into consolidation,
if the market's in a strong.
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Many times you won't see much
of a retracement, but you will
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see a consolidation or a trading
range form, and they'll capitalize
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new long positions that way.
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And then sometimes they'll take the
market below a short term, low on a daily
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chart and then send it higher after that.
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That would be the extent of any
kind of retracement, but either way,
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I want you to look at the market.
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There's always some intermediate
term play to trade on every three
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to four months on every asset class.
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If the market you're looking at or
studying is in a significant range
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bound environment, look at a market
that is potentially moving up to.
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A new uptrend or a downtrend stage
and its price action by doing so it
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will also get you in line with the
potential longterm trends, moving
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higher or lower respectively to what
you would be seeing in your charts.
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We're gonna talk a lot about that
this month, but let's get into a
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little bit more nuts and bolts about
how we can use if the data ranges
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and the quarterly market shifts.
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Obviously my view on the marketplace.
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If we can focus in on what
the smart money's done with.
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How are they allocating funds?
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How are they moving into the marketplace?
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If we can mimic those characteristics
in our own trading, uh, hopefully
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the outcome should be, we have
high probability conditions.
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Uh, when we look at smart money
accumulation for by programs and
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by program is when the market goes
through a series of successive
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days sessions that are consecutive.
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Regardless of what timeframe it is.
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Um, you can see it by
program on a hourly chart.
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You can see it by program on a four
hour charting shit by program on
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a daily and or weekly or monthly.
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But the trading timeframe that
we're using for this month
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is primarily the daily chart.
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So if we're going to be anticipating a
buy program, that means we're going to
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be expecting a series of updates and it
could last as long as several months,
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it doesn't have to be a few days, but a
few days up on a daily chart can still.
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Be considered a buy program.
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If it's reaching for a measure
of liquidity, that would be
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above the recent market highs,
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but we're looking for smart money
accumulation for buy programs.
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What we're essentially
expecting is manipulation in the
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underlying versus Dimez mark.
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Now, what is the
underlying and what is the.
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What we're going to be looking at again,
specifically dealing with the foreign
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exchange market for this teaching, but
we will be talking about commodities.
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We will be talking about stocks
and we'll be talking about interest
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rate markets as well in the same
venue that we're teaching here.
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But I want to keep the topics very.
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Concise about one asset class at a time.
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Does it avoid any kind of confusion on
USAA as a student, but the manipulation
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of the underlying, the underlying
is what you're actually trading.
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And the benchmark is what you're
measuring the potential manipulation
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or lack thereof, core smart money
accumulation for a by program on
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a daily chart, the benchmark is
going to sometimes make a lower.
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While the underlying makes a higher,
low, this would indicate that strong
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buying pressure under the underlying
issue or in this case, the currency
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that you're trading, it's failing
to make a lower low, whereas the
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benchmark would be making a low.
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It's showing relative strength.
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So therefore you would expect
a measure of upside movement.
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Another scenario where smart money
accumulation for buy programs would come
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into way is the underlying or the currency
that you're trading makes a lower low
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while the benchmark makes a lower high.
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And this is for inverse.
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Correlated benchmarks to currency.
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And I'll give you an example, um,
for the point number two, where
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it says benchmark makes lower,
low underlying makes higher low.
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In this case, that statement could be
true by saying the dollar index makes
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a lower low while the dollar yen.
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It makes a higher low, that would
be a accumulation by program.
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The underlying or currency that you're
trading makes a lower low, but the
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benchmark makes a lower high in this case.
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This would be true in the sense that if we
were looking at say the British pound USD
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makes a lower low while the dollar index.
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It makes a lower high.
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What that would indicate is while
the dollar was failing to make a
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higher high in respect to making a
lower low in the British pound versus
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00:12:34,075 --> 00:12:39,495
us dollar it's indicating that the
pound is actually going under an old
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low to scoop up sell side liquidity.
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00:12:43,305 --> 00:12:46,965
So therefore we would anticipate a
turtle soup scenario on a daily chart.
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Benchmark makes higher high
underlying makes higher.
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This case it's stating a condition
that would be the dollar making a
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higher high, which would look like
relative strength for the dollar, but
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the underlying, or in this case, we'll
use the pound dollar makes a higher.
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That pound dollar should've
made a lower low, but it was
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unwilling to make that lower, low.
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00:13:14,580 --> 00:13:19,110
So therefore the relative strength is
in the buy side on pound versus dollar.
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00:13:19,620 --> 00:13:23,910
And the dollar is actually going
above an old high to take the buy
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stops above and Ohio, and then reject.
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00:13:26,010 --> 00:13:29,160
We would look for a turtle soup,
sell on a daily in that condition
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for smart money distribution
for sell programs.
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We'll look at the four
conditions that we use.
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Again, the manipulation and
the underlying versus the
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benchmark is what we're studying.
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This is all relative
to the daily timeframe.
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Only nothing less than a daily chart.
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It's a benchmark makes a higher high
while the underlying makes a lower high.
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00:13:55,470 --> 00:13:57,930
In this case, that would be
the dollar making a higher.
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00:13:58,875 --> 00:14:02,685
While the underlying or in
this case, it would be the
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00:14:03,015 --> 00:14:05,954
dollar yen makes a lower high.
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00:14:06,584 --> 00:14:12,194
That would be a sell program or showing
heavy distribution in the dollar yen pair
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00:14:16,094 --> 00:14:19,425
underlying makes a higher high while
the benchmark makes a higher, low.
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00:14:20,220 --> 00:14:25,830
This could be true in the sense
that, uh, the pound dollar makes a
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00:14:25,860 --> 00:14:31,740
higher high while the dollar index
makes a higher, low in this case.
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00:14:31,740 --> 00:14:36,210
What it's implying is for instance, if
the underlying is the pound dollar and it
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00:14:36,210 --> 00:14:39,840
makes a higher high it's reaching above
and old high to get the buy-side liquid.
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00:14:40,380 --> 00:14:43,890
For a turtle soup cell and
the dollar index is actually
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00:14:43,890 --> 00:14:45,960
failing to make a lower low.
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00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,150
So the underlying strength
is in the dollar index.
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00:14:51,930 --> 00:14:56,939
Lastly, for a sell program on the daily
chart, the benchmark makes a lower low
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00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,910
while the underlying makes a lower high.
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00:15:00,510 --> 00:15:04,319
In this case, it would be the dollar
index makes a lower low while the
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00:15:04,319 --> 00:15:06,750
pound dollar makes a lower high.
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00:15:07,725 --> 00:15:13,305
The dollar index making a lower low
while the pound making a lower high,
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00:15:13,995 --> 00:15:18,465
the pound dollar while making a
lower high showing relative weakness.
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00:15:19,215 --> 00:15:22,005
While the benchmark dollar index
makes that lower, low, it would
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00:15:22,005 --> 00:15:22,995
look like the dollar index.
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00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:24,599
Breaking lower.
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00:15:24,810 --> 00:15:28,439
So therefore support broken is
going to see continuation go lower.
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00:15:28,709 --> 00:15:31,500
But in fact, what's actually happening
is the dollar index would be breaking
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00:15:31,500 --> 00:15:36,479
a previous low to accumulate all the
sell stocks below an old low while
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00:15:36,479 --> 00:15:39,599
the pound dollar was unwilling to
make a higher high, because it's
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00:15:39,630 --> 00:15:42,839
already booked enough shorts and
it's heavily under distribution.
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00:15:43,170 --> 00:15:45,300
We will be seeing heavy
selling in the pound dollar.
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00:15:46,350 --> 00:15:50,250
Based on the relative weakness, because
it was failing to make a higher high
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00:15:50,250 --> 00:15:52,200
while the dollar index made a lower low.
230
00:15:56,910 --> 00:16:00,210
All of that said, and it was probably a
little bit confusing for you, but I gave
231
00:16:00,210 --> 00:16:06,360
you some replacements, but the rules are,
as they were explained, just a moment ago
232
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,290
on the previous slide, but you can see
everything said here, we'll go through it.
233
00:16:11,910 --> 00:16:13,890
Uh, smart money cannulation
for buy programs.
234
00:16:14,370 --> 00:16:18,090
We're specializing in the manipulation
in the underlying versus the benchmark.
235
00:16:18,660 --> 00:16:22,950
And that's seen in the sense that the
dollar index makes a lower low while the
236
00:16:22,950 --> 00:16:29,220
dollar Swiss, for example, makes a higher
low, that would be bullish for the dollar
237
00:16:29,220 --> 00:16:34,860
Swiss Euro dollar makes a lower low while
the dollar index makes a lower high that
238
00:16:34,860 --> 00:16:37,920
would be seen as bearishness for the.
239
00:16:38,710 --> 00:16:41,890
And the bullishness for the Euro
dollar because it went below an
240
00:16:41,890 --> 00:16:45,100
old, low to scoop up the sell side
liquidity, and then you would see
241
00:16:45,100 --> 00:16:46,810
a rejection or a turtle soup long.
242
00:16:48,850 --> 00:16:55,150
The dollar index makes a higher high and
a Euro dollar makes a higher low, and
243
00:16:55,150 --> 00:16:59,170
that would be relative strength for the
Euro dollar and the move above the old
244
00:16:59,170 --> 00:17:02,800
high on the dollar index would be a turtle
soup sell after running the bicycle.
245
00:17:04,500 --> 00:17:07,109
And the smart money
distribution for cell programs.
246
00:17:07,139 --> 00:17:10,530
Again, focusing on manipulation in
the underlying versus the benchmark,
247
00:17:11,159 --> 00:17:12,869
the dollar index makes a higher high.
248
00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:17,550
At the same time, the dollar Swiss
would be making a lower high that
249
00:17:17,550 --> 00:17:21,569
would be relative weakness in the
dollar Swiss payor and the dollar index
250
00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:26,220
making a move above an old high would
be a run-on buy stock for a dollar.
251
00:17:26,220 --> 00:17:27,589
And then you would see rejection after.
252
00:17:28,235 --> 00:17:32,945
And looking for a lower price on
dollar index, the dollar index and the
253
00:17:32,945 --> 00:17:39,185
dollar Swiss are closely correlated
and just like the dollar Swiss being
254
00:17:39,185 --> 00:17:40,625
close to chloride to dollar index.
255
00:17:40,625 --> 00:17:43,655
So is dollar keg when
oil was known the issue.
256
00:17:43,685 --> 00:17:43,775
Okay.
257
00:17:44,550 --> 00:17:50,880
Dollar Yan is also closely correlated
to the dollar index positively or
258
00:17:51,330 --> 00:17:56,220
naturally correlated, uh, versus
the Euro dollar and the dollar
259
00:17:56,220 --> 00:17:57,720
index they're inversely correlated.
260
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,390
So that means whatever the Euro dollar
is dealing the opposite, seeing in the
261
00:18:00,390 --> 00:18:05,250
dollar index, um, and its third example
for the cell program, Euro dollar.
262
00:18:05,935 --> 00:18:11,125
Makes a higher high while the dollar
index makes a higher, low, and relative
263
00:18:11,125 --> 00:18:15,415
strength in the dollar index and
underlying weakness should be expected
264
00:18:15,415 --> 00:18:18,735
after you're a dollar takes that old
high out, running out the buy-side
265
00:18:18,735 --> 00:18:21,865
liquidity and a daily chart should
see lower prices in that condition.
266
00:18:23,044 --> 00:18:27,895
And dollar index makes a lower low
while the Euro dollar makes a lower.
267
00:18:28,905 --> 00:18:33,824
That's relative weakness in the Euro
dollar pair while the dollar index does.
268
00:18:33,824 --> 00:18:37,185
In fact, go below that lower, low, the
dollar index would be scooping up the sell
269
00:18:37,185 --> 00:18:41,594
side, liquidity below an old low, and then
rejection and trading higher on the dollar
270
00:18:41,594 --> 00:18:44,235
index, thus pushing your dollar lower.
271
00:18:48,495 --> 00:18:48,645
Okay.
272
00:18:48,645 --> 00:18:50,955
But we're looking at here as a
dollar index is a monthly chart.
273
00:18:51,375 --> 00:18:56,354
And what I did was outlined a
four year, January to January.
274
00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,870
And I want you to take a look at the
price swings in between all these
275
00:19:01,830 --> 00:19:05,670
reference points vertically, as you
see, there's a couple of different
276
00:19:05,730 --> 00:19:07,170
market shifts that take place,
277
00:19:10,710 --> 00:19:12,000
and this is what it looks like.
278
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:16,350
If you have it set up on every
four months versus the last
279
00:19:16,350 --> 00:19:17,310
live, being every three months.
280
00:19:17,310 --> 00:19:18,840
And I'll give you an
example of seeing it again.
281
00:19:20,250 --> 00:19:23,700
This is your chart divided
up on every three months.
282
00:19:25,620 --> 00:19:29,969
And every four months and you can still
see, it gives you a really good context
283
00:19:29,969 --> 00:19:34,500
of where the market structure is and
what market shift should take place.
284
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:34,949
Next.
285
00:19:39,030 --> 00:19:44,219
This is that same dollar index is viewed
on a weekly timeframe and we're looking at
286
00:19:44,219 --> 00:19:49,320
every four months, four quarterly shifts.
287
00:19:51,929 --> 00:19:54,540
And we're going to drop
down into a daily chart.
288
00:19:55,710 --> 00:19:58,949
You can see here, we have
the dollar index daily.
289
00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:05,970
And what I did was, again, I'm only
using calendars starts of each month here
290
00:20:06,899 --> 00:20:09,570
from one January to the following years.
291
00:20:10,980 --> 00:20:15,450
Or in the case of this example,
um, the new year, 2017, that we're
292
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:21,750
now in looking at 2016, January
1st to January, first of 2017.
293
00:20:23,910 --> 00:20:27,120
I want you to take a look at how
many times the market shifts back and
294
00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:31,770
forth and how many price swings you
see over the course of a four year.
295
00:20:32,730 --> 00:20:34,380
I want a daily timeframe.
296
00:20:34,740 --> 00:20:36,480
You're not getting a great deal of 70.
297
00:20:37,335 --> 00:20:39,585
And unfortunately, that's the
reason why most people don't
298
00:20:39,585 --> 00:20:44,735
trade this timeframe, but it is a
timeframe that is supportive to all.
299
00:20:45,885 --> 00:20:46,935
Disciplines of trading.
300
00:20:46,995 --> 00:20:51,195
And I said this multiple times, and
I'm going to belabor it here, but I
301
00:20:51,195 --> 00:20:53,355
want you to see how the market does.
302
00:20:53,355 --> 00:20:58,755
In fact, give us a very good macro view
of the marketplace, where it gives us
303
00:20:58,755 --> 00:21:00,585
framework and structure to work within.
304
00:21:00,795 --> 00:21:04,155
So that way we can trade on one side of
the marketplace and focus primarily on.
305
00:21:09,445 --> 00:21:09,595
All right.
306
00:21:09,595 --> 00:21:13,315
Let's deal with a little bit more
detail about what is a quarterly shift.
307
00:21:16,135 --> 00:21:16,315
Okay.
308
00:21:16,315 --> 00:21:19,615
On your chart, you're going to
delineate the vertical line.
309
00:21:20,500 --> 00:21:24,610
On your calendar at the beginning of
the year, you're going to find, or if
310
00:21:24,610 --> 00:21:27,610
you're just now starting to say you
were watching this, um, video, which
311
00:21:27,610 --> 00:21:30,850
you shouldn't be because everyone should
be watching it at the same time in
312
00:21:30,850 --> 00:21:32,889
January, 2017 as part of this mentorship.
313
00:21:33,550 --> 00:21:37,570
But for those that are studying again,
watching this video and the mentorship
314
00:21:37,570 --> 00:21:43,810
and their access to the content, you may
look at your charts and it may be may.
315
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:44,889
Okay.
316
00:21:44,889 --> 00:21:46,000
It could be three years from.
317
00:21:47,365 --> 00:21:51,175
And you could do a whole new analysis
by taking a look at the chart and
318
00:21:51,175 --> 00:21:54,355
putting your work align at the
beginning of the most recent past month.
319
00:21:54,774 --> 00:21:54,985
Okay.
320
00:21:54,985 --> 00:21:57,115
For instance, we're in January
right now, you would put it
321
00:21:57,264 --> 00:21:59,125
on the first day of December.
322
00:22:00,235 --> 00:22:00,445
Okay.
323
00:22:00,445 --> 00:22:01,044
And you would do everything.
324
00:22:01,044 --> 00:22:03,895
I'm about to explain to you here,
but the start at all to make
325
00:22:03,895 --> 00:22:05,274
it easy to explain everything.
326
00:22:05,274 --> 00:22:11,095
I just used the January to the January
factor and we're going to be viewing
327
00:22:11,095 --> 00:22:13,165
that as the anticipated quarterly shift.
328
00:22:13,195 --> 00:22:14,395
Now we don't know that's going to be.
329
00:22:15,735 --> 00:22:19,965
But we're going to do some things to
arrive at how we can calibrate that level.
330
00:22:21,854 --> 00:22:23,324
And this is called the look back
331
00:22:26,685 --> 00:22:29,834
what's going to be doing is that
you're gonna look back from your month
332
00:22:29,865 --> 00:22:34,365
of study, wherever that is in time,
regardless of what, when you start your
333
00:22:34,365 --> 00:22:37,034
analysis to most recent past month.
334
00:22:37,455 --> 00:22:37,875
Okay.
335
00:22:38,415 --> 00:22:40,574
Uh, you want to be using
that first trading.
336
00:22:41,460 --> 00:22:43,530
Oh, that month put a
vertical line on your chart.
337
00:22:44,010 --> 00:22:46,889
And then from that point on, you're
going to be looking back to the
338
00:22:46,889 --> 00:22:50,129
left and you'll be looking back
to the left of that vertical line
339
00:22:50,370 --> 00:22:51,480
that you place on your chart.
340
00:22:52,710 --> 00:22:57,990
60 trading days, 40 trading
days and 20 trading days.
341
00:22:57,990 --> 00:23:00,300
Now, why am I giving you
those three parameters?
342
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,389
The algorithm will reach back.
343
00:23:04,335 --> 00:23:09,435
About three trading month's worth of data.
344
00:23:10,425 --> 00:23:14,595
That's the average where the reach back
for now, there's other times where it
345
00:23:14,595 --> 00:23:19,665
will go into further ranges, but for
now, I'm just teaching you how to look
346
00:23:19,665 --> 00:23:27,855
for two most salient points of reference
on the daily chart, the 60 to 40 and the
347
00:23:27,855 --> 00:23:31,635
20 trading days left of the most recent.
348
00:23:32,445 --> 00:23:35,145
Calendar month, put your
vertical line on that.
349
00:23:35,175 --> 00:23:36,375
That's your beginning marker point.
350
00:23:37,065 --> 00:23:41,775
And you're going to delineate what 60
days to the left of that is what 40 days
351
00:23:41,775 --> 00:23:43,545
to the left of that is and what 20 days.
352
00:23:43,875 --> 00:23:45,465
And they're all trading
these not calendar days.
353
00:23:48,075 --> 00:23:50,085
You're going to basically in
those ranges, you're going to
354
00:23:50,085 --> 00:23:51,615
identify institutional order flow.
355
00:23:51,645 --> 00:23:52,725
What was the market doing?
356
00:23:53,745 --> 00:24:01,544
60 days ago to now, or a rectal
line of that most recent month.
357
00:24:01,665 --> 00:24:06,044
That's the lemonade on your chart
also to the left of that vertical
358
00:24:06,044 --> 00:24:07,095
mine, you place on your chart.
359
00:24:07,975 --> 00:24:11,925
You're going to be looking back
over the 60, the 40 and the 20
360
00:24:12,105 --> 00:24:13,514
past trading days to the left.
361
00:24:14,610 --> 00:24:19,800
Past month, and you're gonna look for
recent institutional reference points.
362
00:24:21,090 --> 00:24:25,890
I mean, look for an old price high
you're looking at old price low.
363
00:24:26,340 --> 00:24:27,270
Why are you doing that?
364
00:24:27,330 --> 00:24:31,290
You're looking for a potential liquidity
pool that would be resting above it.
365
00:24:31,650 --> 00:24:33,150
Or if those highs have.
366
00:24:34,475 --> 00:24:37,565
You may be looking for rejection
blocks, which would be a move above
367
00:24:37,565 --> 00:24:41,435
the bodies of the candles for a
potential sell off or below an
368
00:24:41,435 --> 00:24:43,805
old low that has long wicks on it.
369
00:24:43,805 --> 00:24:48,695
And you'd be looking for the bodies
and the candle to house some sell side
370
00:24:48,695 --> 00:24:54,815
liquidity below that for rejection block
or south stops below an old well, if
371
00:24:54,815 --> 00:24:58,505
there's not a whole lot of wicks to the
lows that would be defined in the last
372
00:24:58,505 --> 00:25:02,915
60 to 40 to 23 trading days, you may
be looking for bearish order blocks.
373
00:25:03,689 --> 00:25:06,870
Bullshitter blocks in the last 60 days.
374
00:25:06,959 --> 00:25:09,330
And you're going to look
specifically around the last 60,
375
00:25:09,659 --> 00:25:11,760
around 40 in the last 20 days.
376
00:25:11,820 --> 00:25:17,459
Basically, you're looking back the
last three trading months and you'll
377
00:25:17,459 --> 00:25:20,669
be looking for fair value gaps
and any liquidity voids as well.
378
00:25:23,969 --> 00:25:25,050
Once you identify.
379
00:25:26,175 --> 00:25:28,275
Over the last 60 trading days.
380
00:25:28,785 --> 00:25:29,205
Okay.
381
00:25:29,265 --> 00:25:35,085
You're using the previous closed
calendar month as your beginning
382
00:25:35,085 --> 00:25:42,075
reference point again, as an example
right now, today it's January 6th, 2017.
383
00:25:43,485 --> 00:25:48,165
And if I were to use this method,
I would look at December 1st, 2016.
384
00:25:48,435 --> 00:25:51,345
My vertical line would
be on that calendar day.
385
00:25:51,885 --> 00:25:54,735
And then I would look 60
trading days to the left.
386
00:25:55,574 --> 00:25:58,245
Oh, my chart, I would look 40
trading days to the left of that.
387
00:25:58,605 --> 00:26:02,445
And I would look 20 trading days to the
left of that December 1st or wherever.
388
00:26:02,445 --> 00:26:05,054
The first trading day would
be for December, 2016.
389
00:26:06,645 --> 00:26:09,225
And I'd be looking for
over those three months.
390
00:26:09,405 --> 00:26:11,745
Where's the high and where's the low.
391
00:26:12,375 --> 00:26:15,195
If the market has been trading
higher, I'm going to frame
392
00:26:15,345 --> 00:26:17,165
everything off of the market.
393
00:26:18,405 --> 00:26:20,774
If it's been trading lower,
I'm going to trade, frame
394
00:26:20,774 --> 00:26:22,125
everything off of the market high.
395
00:26:22,965 --> 00:26:24,554
So again, I'll repeat that for you.
396
00:26:25,455 --> 00:26:30,135
You're looking back left 60
trading days at the maximum
397
00:26:30,585 --> 00:26:32,294
over those last 60 trading days.
398
00:26:32,655 --> 00:26:35,024
You're determining what was
the institutional order flow
399
00:26:35,294 --> 00:26:36,495
over those last three months?
400
00:26:36,794 --> 00:26:41,764
Was it trading higher collectively or was
it trading lower collectively as a, as
401
00:26:41,764 --> 00:26:46,125
a whole, sometimes you're gonna look at
it and it'll be a rather large trading.
402
00:26:46,965 --> 00:26:47,595
And that's okay.
403
00:26:47,595 --> 00:26:48,015
Sale.
404
00:26:48,105 --> 00:26:51,375
You'll be able to do things with
that as well, but for now you want
405
00:26:51,375 --> 00:26:53,205
to see what's more significant.
406
00:26:53,325 --> 00:26:56,595
Was there a significant intermediate
term price low formed in the
407
00:26:56,595 --> 00:26:58,635
last 60 trading days to the left?
408
00:26:59,745 --> 00:27:03,885
Or was it a significant enemy, a
term high that formed whichever is
409
00:27:03,885 --> 00:27:05,625
true in whichever is obvious to you.
410
00:27:06,945 --> 00:27:10,635
Put your vertical line
on that high or that low.
411
00:27:11,205 --> 00:27:14,385
So now you're calibrating it to the market
structure that's in place right now.
412
00:27:15,855 --> 00:27:19,065
Once you do that, what you're doing is,
is you're anchoring your vertical line
413
00:27:19,155 --> 00:27:21,135
to a previous market structure shift.
414
00:27:26,805 --> 00:27:27,105
Okay.
415
00:27:27,105 --> 00:27:29,745
So let's go back to our daily
chart of the dollar index.
416
00:27:30,045 --> 00:27:30,285
Okay.
417
00:27:30,285 --> 00:27:33,645
And this is what we had
earlier in the presentation.
418
00:27:33,645 --> 00:27:35,685
I had January 1st, 2016.
419
00:27:36,449 --> 00:27:38,850
To January 1st, 2017.
420
00:27:39,689 --> 00:27:39,929
Okay.
421
00:27:39,929 --> 00:27:41,879
And I'm going to do what
I just explained to you.
422
00:27:42,899 --> 00:27:47,790
If we were looking at the market in
January 1st, 2016, we're going to
423
00:27:47,790 --> 00:27:54,840
actually do what I explained it's a moment
ago, and this is what we ended up at.
424
00:27:55,139 --> 00:28:01,080
We will be moving to December,
2015, the first trading day.
425
00:28:02,835 --> 00:28:06,075
Versus January 1st, 2016.
426
00:28:06,255 --> 00:28:09,315
So we moved to the left
and we noted that high.
427
00:28:09,705 --> 00:28:13,605
And when you're using the first
calendar day of the month, and then
428
00:28:13,605 --> 00:28:16,245
we're always using that reference
point to calibrate and begin.
429
00:28:16,755 --> 00:28:21,525
Because again, if our belief is the
algorithm is systematic, it's methodical.
430
00:28:21,735 --> 00:28:23,745
It's going to work on data rates.
431
00:28:24,495 --> 00:28:30,044
And it's going to use calendar dates and
it has to reference how far to look back
432
00:28:30,284 --> 00:28:31,995
because it's a numerical reference point.
433
00:28:32,415 --> 00:28:36,524
So now we know how we can calibrate just
like the algorithm will, we'll define
434
00:28:36,524 --> 00:28:38,655
it in the sense of every three months.
435
00:28:38,655 --> 00:28:42,375
There is a shift also in the last
three months, whereas the liquidity
436
00:28:42,375 --> 00:28:45,105
yet, and that's a sensitive, but
we're going to be talking specifically
437
00:28:45,195 --> 00:28:48,885
dealing with in the next teaching
with the open float for free.
438
00:28:49,429 --> 00:28:52,550
To get to that understanding in the
next teaching, I have to teach you how
439
00:28:52,550 --> 00:28:54,260
to calibrate your market structure.
440
00:28:54,470 --> 00:28:57,620
So that way you can see where the market
is most likely going to reach for.
441
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,010
So now we have our reference point when
our vertical line all the way to the
442
00:29:04,010 --> 00:29:10,639
left, the furthest most left vertical line
again, delineated at December 1st, 2015.
443
00:29:10,879 --> 00:29:11,750
And now we're anchored.
444
00:29:12,230 --> 00:29:15,080
Now we're going to do the look
back on that vertical line.
445
00:29:16,815 --> 00:29:21,585
Looking at the range that was created
in the last 60 trading days from
446
00:29:21,585 --> 00:29:27,075
that vertical line that we adjusted
and anchored at December 1st, 2015,
447
00:29:28,065 --> 00:29:30,165
over the laxed 60 trading days.
448
00:29:30,345 --> 00:29:36,074
What we saw is the market traded
higher from around October, 2015.
449
00:29:36,255 --> 00:29:37,215
So it made an intermediate term.
450
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:43,515
The market traded up and created that
short-term or enemy term high at December
451
00:29:43,515 --> 00:29:49,179
1st or their bounce in the last 40 trading
days to the left of that December 1st,
452
00:29:49,180 --> 00:29:53,580
2015 delineation with that vertical line,
we also see there was a consolidation
453
00:29:53,580 --> 00:29:59,100
and then expanded again, once more
time higher in the last 20 trading
454
00:29:59,100 --> 00:30:02,430
days to the left of that vertical line,
the market just kept pressing higher.
455
00:30:02,580 --> 00:30:04,320
So institutional order flow with.
456
00:30:06,014 --> 00:30:08,925
So, where is the liquidity at?
457
00:30:12,345 --> 00:30:17,655
It's going to be what it's going to
be the low the marketplace, because
458
00:30:17,655 --> 00:30:19,485
the market has already traded higher.
459
00:30:20,504 --> 00:30:21,855
That's this reference point?
460
00:30:24,450 --> 00:30:25,770
Great glow the October low,
461
00:30:29,100 --> 00:30:34,500
the market trades lower after or
to the right of December 1st, 2015.
462
00:30:35,070 --> 00:30:39,899
Once the market trades lower in
between this reference point, once we
463
00:30:39,899 --> 00:30:43,860
identified where the market structure
starts to break down, that means a
464
00:30:43,889 --> 00:30:46,620
Keala was broken and that kilos seen.
465
00:30:47,459 --> 00:30:48,090
Right here.
466
00:30:52,860 --> 00:30:57,149
Any retracement higher or movement
higher at this moment, we're going to
467
00:30:57,149 --> 00:31:01,350
be anticipating I move lower because the
market has already been moving bullishly
468
00:31:02,129 --> 00:31:03,510
we've seen a market structure break.
469
00:31:05,790 --> 00:31:10,230
And now we're going to be anticipating a
potential move lower in the dollar index.
470
00:31:11,010 --> 00:31:15,150
It could be a consolidation
sideways, but we're still expecting
471
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:21,779
a measure of bearishness in the
dollar index post December, 2015.
472
00:31:26,525 --> 00:31:30,995
The 60 to 40 and a 20, when we
look back like this, again, we're
473
00:31:30,995 --> 00:31:36,245
focusing primarily on where has
the market traded from what was the
474
00:31:36,245 --> 00:31:37,745
institutional order flow at that point?
475
00:31:38,075 --> 00:31:41,555
And at this time we can see
clearly between the October.
476
00:31:42,405 --> 00:31:47,355
In November into December, 2015 to
market had been trading bullishly.
477
00:31:48,555 --> 00:31:51,465
I don't care about the long
longterm trend right now.
478
00:31:51,495 --> 00:31:54,705
All we're doing is looking at quarterly
shifts and it will give you a great
479
00:31:54,705 --> 00:31:58,695
deal of context on how you can do
a lot of different trading, but it
480
00:31:58,695 --> 00:32:02,085
will help you frame your position
trades because without understanding
481
00:32:02,085 --> 00:32:04,185
this, you can't incorporate trends.
482
00:32:04,820 --> 00:32:06,650
To get yourself on the right
side of the marketplace.
483
00:32:06,710 --> 00:32:11,000
There are things that we're going to teach
in the content for January that helps
484
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,500
you get in sync with longterm trends.
485
00:32:12,980 --> 00:32:15,710
But for the most part, I want you
to look at how the market shifts
486
00:32:15,710 --> 00:32:21,200
back and forth, both directions, the
markets aren't always in big long-term
487
00:32:21,740 --> 00:32:23,390
trends on the hard timeframe charts.
488
00:32:23,810 --> 00:32:29,680
They may be in a larger range that
larger range will be trends that.
489
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:35,670
Dynamic on a hourly charter or 15 minute
timeframe, but on a higher timeframe,
490
00:32:35,670 --> 00:32:37,560
you're still within a well-defined group.
491
00:32:38,940 --> 00:32:42,660
So by using this higher timeframe
daily chart, when we see the market
492
00:32:42,660 --> 00:32:48,390
structure shift, bearishly, we're
expecting now the next three months
493
00:32:49,170 --> 00:32:50,790
to be a potential correction.
494
00:32:52,470 --> 00:32:56,760
And again, the reference points that I
asked you to go into and look for were
495
00:32:56,910 --> 00:33:01,379
all the things we taught in September,
which is the order block, bullish and
496
00:33:01,379 --> 00:33:05,010
bearish fair value gaps, liquidity void.
497
00:33:07,380 --> 00:33:08,610
Old highs and old lows.
498
00:33:10,050 --> 00:33:14,910
So we're anticipating a move back
into institutional reference points,
499
00:33:15,540 --> 00:33:20,040
then moving lower looking for that
same event to occur, looking for
500
00:33:20,070 --> 00:33:21,480
lower level institutional reference.
501
00:33:22,500 --> 00:33:27,090
No words, price should be drawn down to
a logical level, not randomness down to
502
00:33:27,090 --> 00:33:30,960
a logical level from an institutional
vantage point where we can see where they
503
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:35,610
would want to absorb liquidity or engineer
new liquidity into the marketplace.
504
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:47,130
So using this last 60, 40, and 20
idea, we want to look at how price
505
00:33:47,490 --> 00:33:49,290
in those ranges, what does it create?
506
00:33:50,070 --> 00:33:51,450
Well, the market has moved higher.
507
00:33:53,100 --> 00:34:00,330
So prior to December 1st, 2015 to
marketplace had had an institutional
508
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,640
order flow that was moving bullishly.
509
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,420
So that means as the market was
moving higher, every short term
510
00:34:06,420 --> 00:34:09,540
low is going to have sell side
liquidity or sell stops below.
511
00:34:10,845 --> 00:34:15,585
So in each one of these ranges, what
we can do is define the range, find
512
00:34:15,585 --> 00:34:19,875
the low, and then we can note that as
where all of the sell side liquidity is.
513
00:34:29,670 --> 00:34:35,819
Now once you have your vertical line
calibrated to the most recent market
514
00:34:35,819 --> 00:34:40,830
structure shift, and you've done the
look back and you've defined all of
515
00:34:40,830 --> 00:34:45,029
the liquidity reference points on the
60, 40, and 20 last trading days to the
516
00:34:45,029 --> 00:34:49,469
left, and you identify an institutional
order flow and you referred to all the
517
00:34:49,469 --> 00:34:53,879
recent institutional reference points
that we've identified in brief listing.
518
00:34:54,810 --> 00:34:56,290
Now you're gonna be doing the cast.
519
00:34:57,915 --> 00:34:58,125
Okay.
520
00:34:58,125 --> 00:34:58,905
The cast forwards.
521
00:34:58,905 --> 00:35:03,045
When you look ahead with the same
parameters we use, when we looked
522
00:35:03,045 --> 00:35:09,015
back, we're anticipating the next
market shift in 20 to 60 trading days.
523
00:35:09,615 --> 00:35:13,005
Again, because we understand and
we, our belief is that market
524
00:35:13,005 --> 00:35:16,275
will have a gyration, a new.
525
00:35:17,145 --> 00:35:18,675
A directional bias.
526
00:35:18,825 --> 00:35:19,305
Okay.
527
00:35:19,515 --> 00:35:24,105
Or a shift in sentiment, or as
I call it a quarterly shift,
528
00:35:28,065 --> 00:35:31,875
we cast forward 20 days to the
right of our vertical line.
529
00:35:32,235 --> 00:35:35,025
When the last shift was 40 days ago.
530
00:35:37,455 --> 00:35:41,445
In other words, if we've seen
a market structure shift after
531
00:35:41,445 --> 00:35:42,675
a vertical line was delineated.
532
00:35:42,705 --> 00:35:48,060
If we see the market shift in the last 40
days, To the left of where we're at now,
533
00:35:48,690 --> 00:35:53,340
we cast forward 40 more days because we're
always using a reference point of 60 days.
534
00:35:59,790 --> 00:36:05,520
We cast forward 40 days when
the last shift was 20 days ago.
535
00:36:06,750 --> 00:36:11,130
Again, the common denominator is it's
60 days of range that we're always in.
536
00:36:14,850 --> 00:36:19,500
We do this until we reach the extreme
of the projected three month limit.
537
00:36:19,590 --> 00:36:22,320
In other words, where there would
be another vertical line drawn
538
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:25,320
on our chart or capping three.
539
00:36:31,275 --> 00:36:32,175
So, what does that look like?
540
00:36:32,625 --> 00:36:33,615
This is what it looks like here.
541
00:36:34,875 --> 00:36:39,885
This is called the cast forward, where
we have delineated a calendar first
542
00:36:39,885 --> 00:36:46,125
trading day at 2015, December 1st, as
we did moments ago, we have a 20 day
543
00:36:46,125 --> 00:36:48,765
range, a 40 day range and a 60 day range.
544
00:36:49,785 --> 00:36:57,765
Added to the right of our December 1st,
2015 delineation or the vertical line.
545
00:36:58,365 --> 00:37:04,785
And now what we have is a future
day range or a data range.
546
00:37:05,445 --> 00:37:11,985
The algorithm's going to anticipate
doing a shift in the marketplace in
547
00:37:11,985 --> 00:37:15,795
that range between 60 and 20 days.
548
00:37:17,820 --> 00:37:22,890
If we seen the market structure
breakdown, as we saw a moment
549
00:37:22,890 --> 00:37:24,960
ago by delineating this low here,
550
00:37:29,850 --> 00:37:33,210
then we're looking for a
market move, going lower to
551
00:37:33,210 --> 00:37:35,640
fill in a potential liquidity.
552
00:37:36,915 --> 00:37:37,725
Same here
553
00:37:44,835 --> 00:37:49,965
in the range of 60 days to the right of
our market structure shift delineation
554
00:37:49,965 --> 00:37:57,435
that we have at December 1st, 2015,
we expect a set up on a daily chart
555
00:37:57,435 --> 00:37:59,235
essentially in the next 60 days.
556
00:37:59,535 --> 00:38:01,445
So that tells you a time horizons.
557
00:38:01,445 --> 00:38:05,265
You could have to wait sometimes
as long as 60 trading days.
558
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,080
Now, this is the reason why I'm
not a heavy position trader because
559
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,319
I don't have the capacity to wait
that long for the next trait.
560
00:38:13,529 --> 00:38:17,370
Some of you didn't may be perfect for you,
but for me personally, it doesn't fit my
561
00:38:17,370 --> 00:38:23,040
cup of tea, but it doesn't have to require
you trading for that entire duration.
562
00:38:23,490 --> 00:38:26,609
You can use this to get
daily bias contacts.
563
00:38:26,609 --> 00:38:29,819
You can get short-term setups and
you can get long-term objectives
564
00:38:29,850 --> 00:38:30,540
where the market should be.
565
00:38:31,380 --> 00:38:36,510
Over weeks and months versus limiting
your scope on a short-term intra-day
566
00:38:36,510 --> 00:38:38,970
basis and marrying those lower timeframes.
567
00:38:42,300 --> 00:38:46,200
Now we're looking at the Euro dollar
in the same way, but obviously,
568
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,920
like we mentioned earlier, the us
dollar is going to be inversely
569
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,990
related to the Euro dollar.
570
00:38:52,620 --> 00:38:55,890
If we're expecting bearishness
on the dollar index, we would be
571
00:38:55,890 --> 00:38:58,190
expecting bullishness on the Euro.
572
00:38:59,910 --> 00:39:03,540
So in the same way, we're going
to add 20 days to the right of
573
00:39:03,540 --> 00:39:09,509
our 2015, December 1st, 40 days to
the right of that vertical line.
574
00:39:09,569 --> 00:39:13,259
And I'm going to add 60 days to
the right of that line and on
575
00:39:13,259 --> 00:39:15,600
empty for what you're going to do
is you can just use a trend line.
576
00:39:16,875 --> 00:39:22,935
And anchor it to your vertical line, drive
it out to the right and let go of it for
577
00:39:22,935 --> 00:39:26,504
a little bit and click back on the right
end of it and drag it out some more.
578
00:39:26,504 --> 00:39:31,484
And you'll see the number that gives you a
range is pull that out until you get to 20
579
00:39:31,634 --> 00:39:36,495
to 40 and to 60, and then you'll have the
delineations that would be necessary to
580
00:39:36,495 --> 00:39:40,545
frame out how far the IPTA data ranges go.
581
00:39:42,524 --> 00:39:43,365
I want you to see.
582
00:39:44,240 --> 00:39:48,380
The high formed here on the Eurodollar.
583
00:39:48,380 --> 00:39:50,660
Look how it falls directly
rate at the 60 day.
584
00:39:51,675 --> 00:39:57,285
If the data range, nails it on the
very high, this is a daily chart folks.
585
00:39:57,375 --> 00:39:57,735
Okay.
586
00:39:57,765 --> 00:39:59,205
So think about what we're doing here.
587
00:39:59,415 --> 00:40:06,195
We're mapping out where the highest
probable time when the time range should
588
00:40:06,195 --> 00:40:08,415
be influential in when the setups occur.
589
00:40:08,865 --> 00:40:12,975
Now we're going to have a lot
of tools to help us move down
590
00:40:12,975 --> 00:40:14,325
into a lot more precision.
591
00:40:14,775 --> 00:40:15,885
Even with this timeframe.
592
00:40:16,385 --> 00:40:21,065
But you have to understand when the
setups occur again, if it's something
593
00:40:21,065 --> 00:40:25,085
that's not random, and if it is in
fact manipulated and controlled, there
594
00:40:25,085 --> 00:40:28,565
should be characteristics that repeat
themselves and it should be measurable.
595
00:40:28,775 --> 00:40:31,655
And we should be able to see
things repeat themselves based on a
596
00:40:31,655 --> 00:40:35,675
criteria, the algorithm will seek.
597
00:40:36,435 --> 00:40:40,005
To do something in the first
20 days, the first 40 days.
598
00:40:40,365 --> 00:40:46,065
And up to 60 days after the most
recent market structure shift, we
599
00:40:46,065 --> 00:40:51,675
saw a high form on the dollar index
and expected the market to move lower
600
00:40:51,675 --> 00:40:53,175
because it broke its market structure.
601
00:40:53,295 --> 00:40:55,755
Bearishly we can see the Euro dollar.
602
00:40:56,345 --> 00:41:01,295
Made a low here December 1st,
2015 and price moved higher
603
00:41:01,325 --> 00:41:02,464
breaking market structure.
604
00:41:02,495 --> 00:41:08,345
Bullishly for it in
between the vertical lines.
605
00:41:08,404 --> 00:41:08,674
Okay.
606
00:41:08,674 --> 00:41:11,705
Once you have calibrated
your market structure.
607
00:41:12,870 --> 00:41:14,340
On a quarterly basis.
608
00:41:14,700 --> 00:41:18,900
And we're assuming back in, back
in 2015, December 1st that we
609
00:41:18,900 --> 00:41:19,830
would have calibrate it there.
610
00:41:19,860 --> 00:41:23,280
Now, again, I'm going to give you
this as a homework, because I want
611
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,800
you to go through your charts and
do this very exercise, and you're
612
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,780
gonna see it's not form fitted.
613
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,080
It's the same stuff that you
can do on your own charts.
614
00:41:31,380 --> 00:41:33,030
Don't just use what I'm using here.
615
00:41:33,995 --> 00:41:36,815
Go into your charts and do the very
thing that I'm showing you here,
616
00:41:37,175 --> 00:41:40,385
assume that you started doing the
analysis in for instance, July
617
00:41:40,685 --> 00:41:43,145
of 2016 and do the same thing.
618
00:41:43,205 --> 00:41:43,535
Okay.
619
00:41:43,535 --> 00:41:44,155
And you'll see it.
620
00:41:44,155 --> 00:41:45,095
It's still helps you.
621
00:41:45,815 --> 00:41:47,885
It'll give you all the data
points that you would be using.
622
00:41:50,055 --> 00:41:55,755
If we see that we're expecting
bullishness on the part of the Euro
623
00:41:55,755 --> 00:42:02,025
dollar, because the dollar index was
expected to go bearishly after December,
624
00:42:02,025 --> 00:42:09,855
2015, that means all the way up into
March, 2016, we have a stance that
625
00:42:09,855 --> 00:42:13,245
the bear snitch and the dollar should
bode well for bullshits on the year.
626
00:42:14,790 --> 00:42:19,529
So between those two reference points,
because we understand that December 1st.
627
00:42:19,980 --> 00:42:20,340
Okay.
628
00:42:20,550 --> 00:42:23,700
We go out forward three to four months.
629
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:29,490
We go as far as March 1st
and by having March 1st.
630
00:42:30,735 --> 00:42:34,285
Defined as the beginning of the new month
out that at that far away, we project
631
00:42:34,285 --> 00:42:42,165
projected that limit on the quarterly
range in between December 1st and March
632
00:42:42,165 --> 00:42:46,905
1st, we would be expecting a bullish
signal to form in the Euro dollar.
633
00:42:47,529 --> 00:42:50,319
And he bear signal the
form in the dollar index.
634
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,970
Getting back to what we mentioned
earlier about buy programs and
635
00:42:54,970 --> 00:42:58,390
sell programs, the scenario would
be even looking at a daily chart.
636
00:42:59,170 --> 00:43:04,810
There's going to be a manipulation that
takes place even on the higher timeframe
637
00:43:04,810 --> 00:43:08,230
daily, let's go back to the dollar index.
638
00:43:13,095 --> 00:43:15,945
Do you see the highs here?
639
00:43:18,345 --> 00:43:24,585
All these highs are forming inside of
the data range of 60 days to the right
640
00:43:24,585 --> 00:43:26,925
of the beginning of December in 2015.
641
00:43:28,335 --> 00:43:32,235
So all of these highs in here
higher, higher, higher, higher
642
00:43:33,435 --> 00:43:37,515
is seeing what, after the market
structure break below this low.
643
00:43:39,419 --> 00:43:40,980
All these retracements higher.
644
00:43:41,100 --> 00:43:43,529
All that did was closing
this liquidity void.
645
00:43:44,879 --> 00:43:53,520
When this void closed in up here inside
of the data range of 60 days, we had
646
00:43:53,520 --> 00:44:01,740
to measure, is there all this justified
by using a inversely related currency?
647
00:44:01,740 --> 00:44:02,700
Like the Euro dollar.
648
00:44:03,450 --> 00:44:05,910
Now we can go and take a look
at the lows that were for.
649
00:44:06,720 --> 00:44:07,590
And the Eurodollar
650
00:44:11,250 --> 00:44:16,920
here's 20 days, 40 days and 60 days to
the right of the delineation setting
651
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,470
our new marker for the quarterly shift.
652
00:44:20,370 --> 00:44:26,490
Look at the lows here in the Euro dollar,
all the up to the 60 day data range,
653
00:44:27,990 --> 00:44:31,350
the lows were higher in the Euro dollar.
654
00:44:32,010 --> 00:44:33,090
So this was underway.
655
00:44:34,305 --> 00:44:38,355
Accumulation the underlying,
which would be traded cause we
656
00:44:38,355 --> 00:44:39,345
don't trade the dollar index.
657
00:44:39,345 --> 00:44:40,575
We use it as a benchmark.
658
00:44:40,995 --> 00:44:44,984
The underlying is failing to make
a lower low again at the same time.
659
00:44:46,815 --> 00:44:50,205
That the benchmark is making
higher highs by all standards.
660
00:44:50,235 --> 00:44:51,495
This looks like bullishness.
661
00:44:51,495 --> 00:44:55,095
Every time a new high is formed and it
looks like it's trying to go higher.
662
00:44:55,305 --> 00:44:58,095
All it's dealing is inching up the
clothes in this liquidity void.
663
00:44:58,095 --> 00:45:00,884
That reference point that we talked
about at the beginning of this teaching,
664
00:45:01,605 --> 00:45:03,045
this is what it's looking to close in.
665
00:45:03,705 --> 00:45:06,345
It's pressing higher at the same time.
666
00:45:06,375 --> 00:45:11,924
All this higher high business is not
being seen with lower lows in the Euro
667
00:45:11,924 --> 00:45:14,985
dollar and it's occurring in between.
668
00:45:16,230 --> 00:45:17,940
Where we delineate the
market structure shift.
669
00:45:17,940 --> 00:45:19,440
Here we go out three months.
670
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:23,370
That means there's going to be a move
that takes place in the next three months.
671
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,360
When the daily chart we're looking
for it to happen within 60 days,
672
00:45:27,930 --> 00:45:29,160
I'll be new calendar month.
673
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:35,910
If this data range we'll go out
and project that long, the 60 day
674
00:45:35,940 --> 00:45:37,770
delineation nails, the very high.
675
00:45:38,220 --> 00:45:44,310
So you have a buy in here and it ends
right here after closing in this.
676
00:45:46,860 --> 00:45:47,220
Okay.
677
00:45:48,540 --> 00:45:51,870
So essentially what we're doing is, is
we're reframing the market quarterly
678
00:45:53,070 --> 00:45:58,830
and it gives us a context to look at
the market modularly so we can take the
679
00:45:58,830 --> 00:46:03,420
price action and really look inside of
it and look for setups instead of just
680
00:46:03,420 --> 00:46:08,490
being lost in the whole grand scheme of
things, looking at the candles, highs,
681
00:46:08,490 --> 00:46:12,270
and lows and all that business, you have
to understand there's a, the rhythm.
682
00:46:13,530 --> 00:46:16,440
And there's a, there's a method
behind how price is delivered.
683
00:46:16,470 --> 00:46:20,040
Even on a daily charts like this, every
three months, the four months, there's
684
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,320
going to be a shakeup in the market.
685
00:46:22,890 --> 00:46:24,570
There's going to be a sentiment shift.
686
00:46:25,050 --> 00:46:28,230
There's going to be a change in trend.
687
00:46:28,650 --> 00:46:28,950
Okay.
688
00:46:28,950 --> 00:46:32,580
There's going to be excitement and check
injected into the marketplace to cause
689
00:46:32,610 --> 00:46:34,740
interest in a specific asset class.
690
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,800
Especially if it's an asset class
that's been dormant for a while
691
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:38,970
and hasn't been traded as much.
692
00:46:39,390 --> 00:46:41,040
They tend to take those markets.
693
00:46:42,105 --> 00:46:45,525
So by looking at the market and
breaking it down like this, it
694
00:46:45,525 --> 00:46:47,535
gives us a great deal of context.
695
00:46:47,775 --> 00:46:50,325
It's specific, it's measurable.
696
00:46:50,325 --> 00:46:55,215
It gives us a very clear indication of
what we're doing in house, how long it
697
00:46:55,215 --> 00:46:59,535
should take the form, and then looking
for the signs to create these setups.
698
00:47:03,525 --> 00:47:08,145
You can see here at the lows, we
had a market structure shift that
699
00:47:08,145 --> 00:47:09,705
was bullish on the dollar index.
700
00:47:09,705 --> 00:47:09,945
And please.
701
00:47:10,785 --> 00:47:13,695
These highs in here
taken out on the upside.
702
00:47:14,295 --> 00:47:20,085
So no highs were violated on the upside
prior to this tie here on the daily.
703
00:47:20,355 --> 00:47:24,165
So institutional order flow broke
to bullishness here because of
704
00:47:24,165 --> 00:47:27,975
the shift in market structure
to markets trading lower here.
705
00:47:28,455 --> 00:47:28,905
Okay.
706
00:47:28,965 --> 00:47:30,675
Now we have another divider.
707
00:47:31,155 --> 00:47:31,545
Okay.
708
00:47:31,545 --> 00:47:34,755
At June 1st, 2016.
709
00:47:36,330 --> 00:47:38,160
So are you doing is adding
another vertical line.
710
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,910
Once you have one, you go out in
time and you add these individually.
711
00:47:42,300 --> 00:47:42,660
Okay.
712
00:47:43,980 --> 00:47:47,670
Now you can calibrate them as you
see fit based on what the market's
713
00:47:47,670 --> 00:47:51,030
doing, but I'm going to resist the
temptation to calibrate it based on this
714
00:47:51,030 --> 00:47:54,180
market structure shift here, because
you could do the same thing here.
715
00:47:54,180 --> 00:47:57,210
Once this market structure
breaks bullishly here.
716
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:02,310
You can go back to May 1st and
use that as you're dealing with.
717
00:48:03,345 --> 00:48:07,305
And then start going 20 days, 40
days, 60 days to the right of it.
718
00:48:07,755 --> 00:48:08,085
Okay.
719
00:48:08,384 --> 00:48:10,755
And then draw another vertical
line every three months or so.
720
00:48:11,355 --> 00:48:14,444
And then that will be the same thing
to me in conflict here, but I want to
721
00:48:14,444 --> 00:48:16,904
keep everything as it is here, because
I don't want to do any more than
722
00:48:16,904 --> 00:48:20,325
it's necessary to teach this specific
principal, because we're going to build
723
00:48:20,325 --> 00:48:22,424
on as we go through January content.
724
00:48:23,685 --> 00:48:25,305
But I want you to take a
look at what this has done.
725
00:48:25,815 --> 00:48:26,505
We have a local.
726
00:48:27,750 --> 00:48:31,070
On a dollar index that we have a low
here on the dollar index that's lower.
727
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,470
Then we have another lower, low on a
dollar index after the market structure
728
00:48:34,470 --> 00:48:35,940
has broken to the bullish side.
729
00:48:36,750 --> 00:48:39,480
So once we have an
interruption and the down move.
730
00:48:39,780 --> 00:48:40,110
Okay.
731
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:44,420
Notice also it's been essentially
six months of down movement.
732
00:48:45,689 --> 00:48:49,500
That's about when you're going to
see the shakeup that takes place.
733
00:48:49,589 --> 00:48:51,299
And it's also going to
be a seasonal influence.
734
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:55,709
We're going to talk about in January
as well, but for this movement
735
00:48:55,709 --> 00:48:58,560
here, I want you to take a look at
the relationship of how the dollar
736
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,000
makes these lower lows in here.
737
00:49:00,839 --> 00:49:02,970
Let's go back to the Euro
dollar at the same time.
738
00:49:02,970 --> 00:49:07,109
Let's see what was going on
around June of 2016 in the Euro.
739
00:49:11,459 --> 00:49:13,410
Well, we're not seeing that higher high.
740
00:49:13,410 --> 00:49:14,459
That would be reasonably exciting.
741
00:49:16,215 --> 00:49:18,705
As we saw lower lows and
dollar, let's go back again.
742
00:49:21,765 --> 00:49:26,325
We have lower lows in the dollar at
the same time, we should be seeing
743
00:49:26,325 --> 00:49:27,615
higher highs in the Euro dollar.
744
00:49:29,805 --> 00:49:30,585
It's not happening.
745
00:49:30,615 --> 00:49:33,525
We see a higher high here,
but you have to look at every
746
00:49:33,525 --> 00:49:34,815
institutional reference point.
747
00:49:35,145 --> 00:49:35,895
We have an old hybrid.
748
00:49:38,009 --> 00:49:38,730
Relatively.
749
00:49:38,730 --> 00:49:40,410
This is not higher.
750
00:49:40,710 --> 00:49:41,640
It's actually lower.
751
00:49:42,150 --> 00:49:44,610
This is a market is a
heavily being distributed.
752
00:49:45,390 --> 00:49:49,110
This market run up here is just a run
owned by so liquidity taking the buy
753
00:49:49,110 --> 00:49:51,180
stops out on shore players already.
754
00:49:51,569 --> 00:49:53,009
And in the market trades lower
755
00:49:56,370 --> 00:50:02,009
in between the vertical lines that
delineate the next market shift.
756
00:50:02,940 --> 00:50:03,210
Okay.
757
00:50:03,210 --> 00:50:05,760
There's a quarterly shift that takes
place every three or four months.
758
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:11,370
And you can see that these smart money
accumulation and distribution programs
759
00:50:11,670 --> 00:50:16,110
are very easy to see in price action,
but you have to define it in such a
760
00:50:16,110 --> 00:50:18,690
way where you now look for it to occur.
761
00:50:19,500 --> 00:50:22,080
Also notice, and I'll leave this
for your own personal study.
762
00:50:22,950 --> 00:50:23,880
How many days a week?
763
00:50:25,005 --> 00:50:28,905
To the right of this calendar,
start to just high form.
764
00:50:30,615 --> 00:50:31,995
I'll leave that for your personal study.
765
00:50:32,775 --> 00:50:35,715
I'll also counsel you to take
a look at this day right here.
766
00:50:36,615 --> 00:50:37,665
This is the election.
767
00:50:38,505 --> 00:50:38,865
Okay.
768
00:50:39,165 --> 00:50:47,385
Even on the day of the election, there is
exactly out to 60 days to the right of.
769
00:50:48,285 --> 00:50:53,055
Oh, here 60 days on the empty,
empty four platform nails.
770
00:50:53,055 --> 00:50:55,964
They're very, very high
that gives us the sell-off.
771
00:50:55,964 --> 00:50:58,964
So initially it opened up
traded higher on the Euro dollar
772
00:50:59,384 --> 00:51:04,214
and then rejected and traded
aggressively lower this higher high.
773
00:51:05,294 --> 00:51:06,495
Again, here's the old high.
774
00:51:07,785 --> 00:51:10,305
This higher high is not being seen.
775
00:51:12,780 --> 00:51:14,490
With a lower loan and the dollar index.
776
00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:19,140
So dollars being accumulated, the
underlying strength is in dollar.
777
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:20,430
You can't go lower.
778
00:51:21,180 --> 00:51:25,680
And the Euro dollar only went
higher to take out the buy stocks.
779
00:51:25,980 --> 00:51:27,300
They're going to reject that as.
780
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:34,350
False strength, which is suspect rally and
the price move lower as a result of it.
781
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,440
So I want you to go through this notes.
782
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,570
This is going to require
you a lot of thinking.
783
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,780
That's why I said this month is
going to be a lot of information.
784
00:51:43,140 --> 00:51:46,650
That's why you have to have a
video recording every single day
785
00:51:46,950 --> 00:51:48,090
and they had to be pre recorded.
786
00:51:48,090 --> 00:51:48,180
Okay.
787
00:51:48,720 --> 00:51:51,180
Do any live sessions this
entire month of January?
788
00:51:51,570 --> 00:51:54,750
There's no way I have enough time in
the day and also live my own personal
789
00:51:54,750 --> 00:51:59,250
life to be able to complete all the
things that's necessary to cover
790
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:04,560
long-term analysis and have it all
encapsulated in the first month of 2017.
791
00:52:04,620 --> 00:52:06,090
And then we can't framework going forward.
792
00:52:06,540 --> 00:52:08,550
So go through the notes on this one again.
793
00:52:09,300 --> 00:52:11,550
Go through your charts,
also using it as well.
794
00:52:11,940 --> 00:52:18,900
And again, in summary, all you're doing
is you're looking for a obvious break and
795
00:52:18,900 --> 00:52:21,720
shift in a marketplace like this one here.
796
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:22,770
Okay.
797
00:52:22,770 --> 00:52:23,850
The market trades higher.
798
00:52:24,510 --> 00:52:30,750
And then if we were looking at the
market in February, we could go back
799
00:52:30,750 --> 00:52:32,580
to January 1st and put our marketing.
800
00:52:33,570 --> 00:52:38,310
And then go out 20 days, 40 days, 60
days, and you'd get something here.
801
00:52:39,270 --> 00:52:41,880
We're looking back and see
where the liquidity is resting.
802
00:52:41,970 --> 00:52:45,300
You're looking back to finding what the
liquidity is, then you're looking forward
803
00:52:45,300 --> 00:52:50,550
or to the right of it, to get the very
next setup in terms of the data range.
804
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:54,630
You're going to know how long it takes
potentially before the next setup.
805
00:52:56,040 --> 00:53:01,170
And how far back you look for the
liquidity reference points for where
806
00:53:01,170 --> 00:53:06,089
the stops are on above or below the lows
and where the liquidity voids and gaps
807
00:53:06,089 --> 00:53:07,500
are that you want to be referencing.
808
00:53:07,950 --> 00:53:10,799
So it gives you context and believe me,
we're going to have lots of examples
809
00:53:10,799 --> 00:53:15,029
of this for January's content, but
for the most part, I want you to look
810
00:53:15,029 --> 00:53:16,650
at the market in a quarterly basis.
811
00:53:17,069 --> 00:53:19,470
I want you to be able to
calibrate your market share.
812
00:53:20,235 --> 00:53:20,595
Okay.
813
00:53:20,605 --> 00:53:24,795
On a quarterly basis, how it's been
defined in this video, and then regardless
814
00:53:24,795 --> 00:53:31,125
of where you're at in time, like for
instance, say it was November 14th, 2016.
815
00:53:31,965 --> 00:53:36,415
What month would you calibrate
your vertical line to.
816
00:53:42,029 --> 00:53:44,879
If he said October 1st,
2016, you're accurate.
817
00:53:44,879 --> 00:53:45,390
You're correct.
818
00:53:45,750 --> 00:53:47,279
If you just said anything
other than that, you're wrong.
819
00:53:47,609 --> 00:53:47,970
Okay.
820
00:53:48,330 --> 00:53:50,339
You want to go back to
the previous closed month?
821
00:53:50,370 --> 00:53:54,180
You want to go back one full calendar
month where it traded from the first
822
00:53:54,180 --> 00:53:57,899
trading day to the last rain day, and
then created a new month by doing that.
823
00:53:57,990 --> 00:53:59,670
You calibrate yourself that way.
824
00:53:59,670 --> 00:54:02,609
You'll be able to see what
if is doing referenced.
825
00:54:03,765 --> 00:54:05,445
And then you start walking
forward from there.
826
00:54:06,075 --> 00:54:10,575
When you see an obvious change in
trend, which we saw up here, we
827
00:54:10,575 --> 00:54:11,925
have a market structure break here.
828
00:54:11,925 --> 00:54:13,335
Bearishly for the Euro.
829
00:54:13,815 --> 00:54:18,285
All this rallying up is just another
attempt to do what we saw happening
830
00:54:20,025 --> 00:54:22,755
in the dollar back here when they had
a market structure break, bearishly
831
00:54:23,025 --> 00:54:24,675
it traded higher up the closing.
832
00:54:25,424 --> 00:54:28,935
And then sold off the same
things that's being seen here.
833
00:54:30,165 --> 00:54:31,424
Market structure break here.
834
00:54:31,575 --> 00:54:36,455
When it comes up, take out by side
liquidity and underlying weaknesses.
835
00:54:38,025 --> 00:54:40,995
Heavy distribution and the market
goes lower as a result of it.
836
00:54:41,775 --> 00:54:45,465
Again, we'll touch more on this as we
go through the content throughout the
837
00:54:45,465 --> 00:54:50,625
year, but for January, we'll touch
more on this because I'm quite sure
838
00:54:51,045 --> 00:54:52,905
while your gears are turning now.
839
00:54:52,965 --> 00:54:55,095
And you're probably really
excited about what you're seeing.
840
00:54:55,365 --> 00:54:57,915
Some of you invariably are
going to want to send me emails.
841
00:54:58,095 --> 00:54:58,995
I didn't understand this.
842
00:54:58,995 --> 00:54:59,805
I couldn't understand that.
843
00:55:00,165 --> 00:55:01,185
Don't do that yet.
844
00:55:01,665 --> 00:55:05,205
Hold off on sending emails and wait
and see if the content doesn't answer
845
00:55:05,205 --> 00:55:06,315
your questions by the end of the.
846
00:55:07,755 --> 00:55:08,505
Until the next video.
847
00:55:08,505 --> 00:55:09,825
I wish you good luck and good trading.
75569
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