Original subtitles

Okay folks.

Welcome to the January, 2017 ICT mentorship long-term analysis lesson 1.1.

We're teaching implementing macro analysis, and this teaching is

quarterly shifts and APTA data ranges.

The quarterly market shift.

Okay.

If there is an algorithm, if our belief is that there is a automated

price delivery engine that takes care of providing efficiency in the

delivery of price, uh, the efficiency of trading at every potential.

Trading price available per asset.

Uh, we're gonna be dealing specifically with Forex for this teaching, but the

effect of a quarterly market shift is universal in all asset classes.

But I want to ask you a question just for a moment, try to

imagine the world as investing.

If it were all completely random, if the market and in fact was

random, how could anyone reasonably.

Have an edge.

Think about it.

Statistics really?

What is it?

You're still counting the odds of something that's already had.

And attributing that to some future unseen event.

So there's no guarantee that just if the markets were completely random, if we had

based our system, if our analysis concepts are based on the effects of randomness

in the marketplace, we're left with the conclusion that yes, things may have

happened 50 times as their last 60 times.

And therefore an edge could be.

Uh, defined, but that does not equate to future events to have not been seen yet.

That's the false hood of teaching.

The idea that the markets are completely.

If the markets were in fact completely random, I myself would never have an

interest in them because I would have new trust in the fact that there was any

measure of prognostication that would fulfill a profitable condition as now.

My belief is that the markets are 100% engineered.

They're absolutely controlled to the very PIP in the foreign exchange market.

I've proven many times in the past, over many years, how we can

call specific price levels to the.

Sometimes it varies a little bit, many times going right to

the PIP as an exit or a target.

And my opinion about that is if I can do that multiple times throughout

the year, that in itself, regardless of what I believe, I'm going to be

able to communicate to you from my understanding about the marketplace.

If I could do that, to me, that proves that are.

In fact zero randomness to the marketplace, because if it was randomness,

I could not be that precise about my forecasts and where I believe the

market was going, going, going to go.

If we understand and can agree that the markets do in fact have a.

Element of control.

And this is in the form of a price engine algorithm at the central bank level, they

set the price, they allow the markets to move to a predefined that range for the

day, for the most part, or sometimes that, uh, things may occur that they send the

price outside of the predetermined range.

But for the most part, the interbank price delivery algorithm or.

Has data ranges that it works within and by understanding what those ranges

are, we can go into the marketplace with a pre determined idea where

the algorithm will do its work.

Where is it pulling the information?

Yeah.

What dates, what ranges and what specific highs and lows is the algorithm

reaching to as a reference point.

That's what this teaching's going to talk about specifically today.

I want to remind you, and I've talked just briefly about this

in the free tutorial section.

As I was going through all the teachings I provided for the online committee.

As it trades the, uh, foreign exchange market.

I teach it, there is a market structure shift that takes place

every three to four months.

And for the most part, that's universal doesn't apply just to

the foreign exchange market, but it does apply to all asset classes.

This effect takes place because the market has to generate new interest.

It has to have a new sense of urgency.

Uh, a missed opportunity is a lost opportunity.

In many people's eyes as a trader.

So the markets have a tendency to move around and gyrate around

every three or four months.

What was true or what was seen as a directional movement in the marketplace

over the last two or three months.

I may not in fact be true for the next coming two to three or

four months in market direction.

So I'm going to counsel you to always look at price on a macro level.

That means a monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe and learn to anticipate.

Intermediate price swings.

It doesn't matter if the market is predisposed to go up on a primary

bullish market or a primary down market, you can still fair it out.

Rather significant intermediate term retracements in either

strong uptrend or down trends.

If you understand this.

You'll also be able to weather the deep retracement sometimes in long-term

position trading that is required.

You'll also understand that by understanding that there's

intermediate term retracements on these hard timeframe levels.

And if you're a long-term position trader as this month is aimed at

teaching, you'll also have no problem and no emotional commitment to.

Not holding the position forever, but in fact, taking some of the position

off, waiting for that retracement, and then going back in adding that

same position you just took off or a portion of that position off

your long-term position trade.

And in adding it back in to recapitalize on that further movement.

Every three to four months, there's going to be a change in direction.

It may cause a consolidation, or it may cause a retracement

of whatever price swing has been unfolding up to that moment.

The fact that the market isn't a primary uptrend or a downtrend, that's going to be

the, whether or not the market has a deep retracement on a hard timeframe basis.

Or if it goes into consolidation, if the market's in a strong.

Many times you won't see much of a retracement, but you will

see a consolidation or a trading range form, and they'll capitalize

new long positions that way.

And then sometimes they'll take the market below a short term, low on a daily

chart and then send it higher after that.

That would be the extent of any kind of retracement, but either way,

I want you to look at the market.

There's always some intermediate term play to trade on every three

to four months on every asset class.

If the market you're looking at or studying is in a significant range

bound environment, look at a market that is potentially moving up to.

A new uptrend or a downtrend stage and its price action by doing so it

will also get you in line with the potential longterm trends, moving

higher or lower respectively to what you would be seeing in your charts.

We're gonna talk a lot about that this month, but let's get into a

little bit more nuts and bolts about how we can use if the data ranges

and the quarterly market shifts.

Obviously my view on the marketplace.

If we can focus in on what the smart money's done with.

How are they allocating funds?

How are they moving into the marketplace?

If we can mimic those characteristics in our own trading, uh, hopefully

the outcome should be, we have high probability conditions.

Uh, when we look at smart money accumulation for by programs and

by program is when the market goes through a series of successive

days sessions that are consecutive.

Regardless of what timeframe it is.

Um, you can see it by program on a hourly chart.

You can see it by program on a four hour charting shit by program on

a daily and or weekly or monthly.

But the trading timeframe that we're using for this month

is primarily the daily chart.

So if we're going to be anticipating a buy program, that means we're going to

be expecting a series of updates and it could last as long as several months,

it doesn't have to be a few days, but a few days up on a daily chart can still.

Be considered a buy program.

If it's reaching for a measure of liquidity, that would be

above the recent market highs,

but we're looking for smart money accumulation for buy programs.

What we're essentially expecting is manipulation in the

underlying versus Dimez mark.

Now, what is the underlying and what is the.

What we're going to be looking at again, specifically dealing with the foreign

exchange market for this teaching, but we will be talking about commodities.

We will be talking about stocks and we'll be talking about interest

rate markets as well in the same venue that we're teaching here.

But I want to keep the topics very.

Concise about one asset class at a time.

Does it avoid any kind of confusion on USAA as a student, but the manipulation

of the underlying, the underlying is what you're actually trading.

And the benchmark is what you're measuring the potential manipulation

or lack thereof, core smart money accumulation for a by program on

a daily chart, the benchmark is going to sometimes make a lower.

While the underlying makes a higher, low, this would indicate that strong

buying pressure under the underlying issue or in this case, the currency

that you're trading, it's failing to make a lower low, whereas the

benchmark would be making a low.

It's showing relative strength.

So therefore you would expect a measure of upside movement.

Another scenario where smart money accumulation for buy programs would come

into way is the underlying or the currency that you're trading makes a lower low

while the benchmark makes a lower high.

And this is for inverse.

Correlated benchmarks to currency.

And I'll give you an example, um, for the point number two, where

it says benchmark makes lower, low underlying makes higher low.

In this case, that statement could be true by saying the dollar index makes

a lower low while the dollar yen.

It makes a higher low, that would be a accumulation by program.

The underlying or currency that you're trading makes a lower low, but the

benchmark makes a lower high in this case.

This would be true in the sense that if we were looking at say the British pound USD

makes a lower low while the dollar index.

It makes a lower high.

What that would indicate is while the dollar was failing to make a

higher high in respect to making a lower low in the British pound versus

us dollar it's indicating that the pound is actually going under an old

low to scoop up sell side liquidity.

So therefore we would anticipate a turtle soup scenario on a daily chart.

Benchmark makes higher high underlying makes higher.

This case it's stating a condition that would be the dollar making a

higher high, which would look like relative strength for the dollar, but

the underlying, or in this case, we'll use the pound dollar makes a higher.

That pound dollar should've made a lower low, but it was

unwilling to make that lower, low.

So therefore the relative strength is in the buy side on pound versus dollar.

And the dollar is actually going above an old high to take the buy

stops above and Ohio, and then reject.

We would look for a turtle soup, sell on a daily in that condition

for smart money distribution for sell programs.

We'll look at the four conditions that we use.

Again, the manipulation and the underlying versus the

benchmark is what we're studying.

This is all relative to the daily timeframe.

Only nothing less than a daily chart.

It's a benchmark makes a higher high while the underlying makes a lower high.

In this case, that would be the dollar making a higher.

While the underlying or in this case, it would be the

dollar yen makes a lower high.

That would be a sell program or showing heavy distribution in the dollar yen pair

underlying makes a higher high while the benchmark makes a higher, low.

This could be true in the sense that, uh, the pound dollar makes a

higher high while the dollar index makes a higher, low in this case.

What it's implying is for instance, if the underlying is the pound dollar and it

makes a higher high it's reaching above and old high to get the buy-side liquid.

For a turtle soup cell and the dollar index is actually

failing to make a lower low.

So the underlying strength is in the dollar index.

Lastly, for a sell program on the daily chart, the benchmark makes a lower low

while the underlying makes a lower high.

In this case, it would be the dollar index makes a lower low while the

pound dollar makes a lower high.

The dollar index making a lower low while the pound making a lower high,

the pound dollar while making a lower high showing relative weakness.

While the benchmark dollar index makes that lower, low, it would

look like the dollar index.

Breaking lower.

So therefore support broken is going to see continuation go lower.

But in fact, what's actually happening is the dollar index would be breaking

a previous low to accumulate all the sell stocks below an old low while

the pound dollar was unwilling to make a higher high, because it's

already booked enough shorts and it's heavily under distribution.

We will be seeing heavy selling in the pound dollar.

Based on the relative weakness, because it was failing to make a higher high

while the dollar index made a lower low.

All of that said, and it was probably a little bit confusing for you, but I gave

you some replacements, but the rules are, as they were explained, just a moment ago

on the previous slide, but you can see everything said here, we'll go through it.

Uh, smart money cannulation for buy programs.

We're specializing in the manipulation in the underlying versus the benchmark.

And that's seen in the sense that the dollar index makes a lower low while the

dollar Swiss, for example, makes a higher low, that would be bullish for the dollar

Swiss Euro dollar makes a lower low while the dollar index makes a lower high that

would be seen as bearishness for the.

And the bullishness for the Euro dollar because it went below an

old, low to scoop up the sell side liquidity, and then you would see

a rejection or a turtle soup long.

The dollar index makes a higher high and a Euro dollar makes a higher low, and

that would be relative strength for the Euro dollar and the move above the old

high on the dollar index would be a turtle soup sell after running the bicycle.

And the smart money distribution for cell programs.

Again, focusing on manipulation in the underlying versus the benchmark,

the dollar index makes a higher high.

At the same time, the dollar Swiss would be making a lower high that

would be relative weakness in the dollar Swiss payor and the dollar index

making a move above an old high would be a run-on buy stock for a dollar.

And then you would see rejection after.

And looking for a lower price on dollar index, the dollar index and the

dollar Swiss are closely correlated and just like the dollar Swiss being

close to chloride to dollar index.

So is dollar keg when oil was known the issue.

Okay.

Dollar Yan is also closely correlated to the dollar index positively or

naturally correlated, uh, versus the Euro dollar and the dollar

index they're inversely correlated.

So that means whatever the Euro dollar is dealing the opposite, seeing in the

dollar index, um, and its third example for the cell program, Euro dollar.

Makes a higher high while the dollar index makes a higher, low, and relative

strength in the dollar index and underlying weakness should be expected

after you're a dollar takes that old high out, running out the buy-side

liquidity and a daily chart should see lower prices in that condition.

And dollar index makes a lower low while the Euro dollar makes a lower.

That's relative weakness in the Euro dollar pair while the dollar index does.

In fact, go below that lower, low, the dollar index would be scooping up the sell

side, liquidity below an old low, and then rejection and trading higher on the dollar

index, thus pushing your dollar lower.

Okay.

But we're looking at here as a dollar index is a monthly chart.

And what I did was outlined a four year, January to January.

And I want you to take a look at the price swings in between all these

reference points vertically, as you see, there's a couple of different

market shifts that take place,

and this is what it looks like.

If you have it set up on every four months versus the last

live, being every three months.

And I'll give you an example of seeing it again.

This is your chart divided up on every three months.

And every four months and you can still see, it gives you a really good context

of where the market structure is and what market shift should take place.

Next.

This is that same dollar index is viewed on a weekly timeframe and we're looking at

every four months, four quarterly shifts.

And we're going to drop down into a daily chart.

You can see here, we have the dollar index daily.

And what I did was, again, I'm only using calendars starts of each month here

from one January to the following years.

Or in the case of this example, um, the new year, 2017, that we're

now in looking at 2016, January 1st to January, first of 2017.

I want you to take a look at how many times the market shifts back and

forth and how many price swings you see over the course of a four year.

I want a daily timeframe.

You're not getting a great deal of 70.

And unfortunately, that's the reason why most people don't

trade this timeframe, but it is a timeframe that is supportive to all.

Disciplines of trading.

And I said this multiple times, and I'm going to belabor it here, but I

want you to see how the market does.

In fact, give us a very good macro view of the marketplace, where it gives us

framework and structure to work within.

So that way we can trade on one side of the marketplace and focus primarily on.

All right.

Let's deal with a little bit more detail about what is a quarterly shift.

Okay.

On your chart, you're going to delineate the vertical line.

On your calendar at the beginning of the year, you're going to find, or if

you're just now starting to say you were watching this, um, video, which

you shouldn't be because everyone should be watching it at the same time in

January, 2017 as part of this mentorship.

But for those that are studying again, watching this video and the mentorship

and their access to the content, you may look at your charts and it may be may.

Okay.

It could be three years from.

And you could do a whole new analysis by taking a look at the chart and

putting your work align at the beginning of the most recent past month.

Okay.

For instance, we're in January right now, you would put it

on the first day of December.

Okay.

And you would do everything.

I'm about to explain to you here, but the start at all to make

it easy to explain everything.

I just used the January to the January factor and we're going to be viewing

that as the anticipated quarterly shift.

Now we don't know that's going to be.

But we're going to do some things to arrive at how we can calibrate that level.

And this is called the look back

what's going to be doing is that you're gonna look back from your month

of study, wherever that is in time, regardless of what, when you start your

analysis to most recent past month.

Okay.

Uh, you want to be using that first trading.

Oh, that month put a vertical line on your chart.

And then from that point on, you're going to be looking back to the

left and you'll be looking back to the left of that vertical line

that you place on your chart.

60 trading days, 40 trading days and 20 trading days.

Now, why am I giving you those three parameters?

The algorithm will reach back.

About three trading month's worth of data.

That's the average where the reach back for now, there's other times where it

will go into further ranges, but for now, I'm just teaching you how to look

for two most salient points of reference on the daily chart, the 60 to 40 and the

20 trading days left of the most recent.

Calendar month, put your vertical line on that.

That's your beginning marker point.

And you're going to delineate what 60 days to the left of that is what 40 days

to the left of that is and what 20 days.

And they're all trading these not calendar days.

You're going to basically in those ranges, you're going to

identify institutional order flow.

What was the market doing?

60 days ago to now, or a rectal line of that most recent month.

That's the lemonade on your chart also to the left of that vertical

mine, you place on your chart.

You're going to be looking back over the 60, the 40 and the 20

past trading days to the left.

Past month, and you're gonna look for recent institutional reference points.

I mean, look for an old price high you're looking at old price low.

Why are you doing that?

You're looking for a potential liquidity pool that would be resting above it.

Or if those highs have.

You may be looking for rejection blocks, which would be a move above

the bodies of the candles for a potential sell off or below an

old low that has long wicks on it.

And you'd be looking for the bodies and the candle to house some sell side

liquidity below that for rejection block or south stops below an old well, if

there's not a whole lot of wicks to the lows that would be defined in the last

60 to 40 to 23 trading days, you may be looking for bearish order blocks.

Bullshitter blocks in the last 60 days.

And you're going to look specifically around the last 60,

around 40 in the last 20 days.

Basically, you're looking back the last three trading months and you'll

be looking for fair value gaps and any liquidity voids as well.

Once you identify.

Over the last 60 trading days.

Okay.

You're using the previous closed calendar month as your beginning

reference point again, as an example right now, today it's January 6th, 2017.

And if I were to use this method, I would look at December 1st, 2016.

My vertical line would be on that calendar day.

And then I would look 60 trading days to the left.

Oh, my chart, I would look 40 trading days to the left of that.

And I would look 20 trading days to the left of that December 1st or wherever.

The first trading day would be for December, 2016.

And I'd be looking for over those three months.

Where's the high and where's the low.

If the market has been trading higher, I'm going to frame

everything off of the market.

If it's been trading lower, I'm going to trade, frame

everything off of the market high.

So again, I'll repeat that for you.

You're looking back left 60 trading days at the maximum

over those last 60 trading days.

You're determining what was the institutional order flow

over those last three months?

Was it trading higher collectively or was it trading lower collectively as a, as

a whole, sometimes you're gonna look at it and it'll be a rather large trading.

And that's okay.

Sale.

You'll be able to do things with that as well, but for now you want

to see what's more significant.

Was there a significant intermediate term price low formed in the

last 60 trading days to the left?

Or was it a significant enemy, a term high that formed whichever is

true in whichever is obvious to you.

Put your vertical line on that high or that low.

So now you're calibrating it to the market structure that's in place right now.

Once you do that, what you're doing is, is you're anchoring your vertical line

to a previous market structure shift.

Okay.

So let's go back to our daily chart of the dollar index.

Okay.

And this is what we had earlier in the presentation.

I had January 1st, 2016.

To January 1st, 2017.

Okay.

And I'm going to do what I just explained to you.

If we were looking at the market in January 1st, 2016, we're going to

actually do what I explained it's a moment ago, and this is what we ended up at.

We will be moving to December, 2015, the first trading day.

Versus January 1st, 2016.

So we moved to the left and we noted that high.

And when you're using the first calendar day of the month, and then

we're always using that reference point to calibrate and begin.

Because again, if our belief is the algorithm is systematic, it's methodical.

It's going to work on data rates.

And it's going to use calendar dates and it has to reference how far to look back

because it's a numerical reference point.

So now we know how we can calibrate just like the algorithm will, we'll define

it in the sense of every three months.

There is a shift also in the last three months, whereas the liquidity

yet, and that's a sensitive, but we're going to be talking specifically

dealing with in the next teaching with the open float for free.

To get to that understanding in the next teaching, I have to teach you how

to calibrate your market structure.

So that way you can see where the market is most likely going to reach for.

So now we have our reference point when our vertical line all the way to the

left, the furthest most left vertical line again, delineated at December 1st, 2015.

And now we're anchored.

Now we're going to do the look back on that vertical line.

Looking at the range that was created in the last 60 trading days from

that vertical line that we adjusted and anchored at December 1st, 2015,

over the laxed 60 trading days.

What we saw is the market traded higher from around October, 2015.

So it made an intermediate term.

The market traded up and created that short-term or enemy term high at December

1st or their bounce in the last 40 trading days to the left of that December 1st,

2015 delineation with that vertical line, we also see there was a consolidation

and then expanded again, once more time higher in the last 20 trading

days to the left of that vertical line, the market just kept pressing higher.

So institutional order flow with.

So, where is the liquidity at?

It's going to be what it's going to be the low the marketplace, because

the market has already traded higher.

That's this reference point?

Great glow the October low,

the market trades lower after or to the right of December 1st, 2015.

Once the market trades lower in between this reference point, once we

identified where the market structure starts to break down, that means a

Keala was broken and that kilos seen.

Right here.

Any retracement higher or movement higher at this moment, we're going to

be anticipating I move lower because the market has already been moving bullishly

we've seen a market structure break.

And now we're going to be anticipating a potential move lower in the dollar index.

It could be a consolidation sideways, but we're still expecting

a measure of bearishness in the dollar index post December, 2015.

The 60 to 40 and a 20, when we look back like this, again, we're

focusing primarily on where has the market traded from what was the

institutional order flow at that point?

And at this time we can see clearly between the October.

In November into December, 2015 to market had been trading bullishly.

I don't care about the long longterm trend right now.

All we're doing is looking at quarterly shifts and it will give you a great

deal of context on how you can do a lot of different trading, but it

will help you frame your position trades because without understanding

this, you can't incorporate trends.

To get yourself on the right side of the marketplace.

There are things that we're going to teach in the content for January that helps

you get in sync with longterm trends.

But for the most part, I want you to look at how the market shifts

back and forth, both directions, the markets aren't always in big long-term

trends on the hard timeframe charts.

They may be in a larger range that larger range will be trends that.

Dynamic on a hourly charter or 15 minute timeframe, but on a higher timeframe,

you're still within a well-defined group.

So by using this higher timeframe daily chart, when we see the market

structure shift, bearishly, we're expecting now the next three months

to be a potential correction.

And again, the reference points that I asked you to go into and look for were

all the things we taught in September, which is the order block, bullish and

bearish fair value gaps, liquidity void.

Old highs and old lows.

So we're anticipating a move back into institutional reference points,

then moving lower looking for that same event to occur, looking for

lower level institutional reference.

No words, price should be drawn down to a logical level, not randomness down to

a logical level from an institutional vantage point where we can see where they

would want to absorb liquidity or engineer new liquidity into the marketplace.

So using this last 60, 40, and 20 idea, we want to look at how price

in those ranges, what does it create?

Well, the market has moved higher.

So prior to December 1st, 2015 to marketplace had had an institutional

order flow that was moving bullishly.

So that means as the market was moving higher, every short term

low is going to have sell side liquidity or sell stops below.

So in each one of these ranges, what we can do is define the range, find

the low, and then we can note that as where all of the sell side liquidity is.

Now once you have your vertical line calibrated to the most recent market

structure shift, and you've done the look back and you've defined all of

the liquidity reference points on the 60, 40, and 20 last trading days to the

left, and you identify an institutional order flow and you referred to all the

recent institutional reference points that we've identified in brief listing.

Now you're gonna be doing the cast.

Okay.

The cast forwards.

When you look ahead with the same parameters we use, when we looked

back, we're anticipating the next market shift in 20 to 60 trading days.

Again, because we understand and we, our belief is that market

will have a gyration, a new.

A directional bias.

Okay.

Or a shift in sentiment, or as I call it a quarterly shift,

we cast forward 20 days to the right of our vertical line.

When the last shift was 40 days ago.

In other words, if we've seen a market structure shift after

a vertical line was delineated.

If we see the market shift in the last 40 days, To the left of where we're at now,

we cast forward 40 more days because we're always using a reference point of 60 days.

We cast forward 40 days when the last shift was 20 days ago.

Again, the common denominator is it's 60 days of range that we're always in.

We do this until we reach the extreme of the projected three month limit.

In other words, where there would be another vertical line drawn

on our chart or capping three.

So, what does that look like?

This is what it looks like here.

This is called the cast forward, where we have delineated a calendar first

trading day at 2015, December 1st, as we did moments ago, we have a 20 day

range, a 40 day range and a 60 day range.

Added to the right of our December 1st, 2015 delineation or the vertical line.

And now what we have is a future day range or a data range.

The algorithm's going to anticipate doing a shift in the marketplace in

that range between 60 and 20 days.

If we seen the market structure breakdown, as we saw a moment

ago by delineating this low here,

then we're looking for a market move, going lower to

fill in a potential liquidity.

Same here

in the range of 60 days to the right of our market structure shift delineation

that we have at December 1st, 2015, we expect a set up on a daily chart

essentially in the next 60 days.

So that tells you a time horizons.

You could have to wait sometimes as long as 60 trading days.

Now, this is the reason why I'm not a heavy position trader because

I don't have the capacity to wait that long for the next trait.

Some of you didn't may be perfect for you, but for me personally, it doesn't fit my

cup of tea, but it doesn't have to require you trading for that entire duration.

You can use this to get daily bias contacts.

You can get short-term setups and you can get long-term objectives

where the market should be.

Over weeks and months versus limiting your scope on a short-term intra-day

basis and marrying those lower timeframes.

Now we're looking at the Euro dollar in the same way, but obviously,

like we mentioned earlier, the us dollar is going to be inversely

related to the Euro dollar.

If we're expecting bearishness on the dollar index, we would be

expecting bullishness on the Euro.

So in the same way, we're going to add 20 days to the right of

our 2015, December 1st, 40 days to the right of that vertical line.

And I'm going to add 60 days to the right of that line and on

empty for what you're going to do is you can just use a trend line.

And anchor it to your vertical line, drive it out to the right and let go of it for

a little bit and click back on the right end of it and drag it out some more.

And you'll see the number that gives you a range is pull that out until you get to 20

to 40 and to 60, and then you'll have the delineations that would be necessary to

frame out how far the IPTA data ranges go.

I want you to see.

The high formed here on the Eurodollar.

Look how it falls directly rate at the 60 day.

If the data range, nails it on the very high, this is a daily chart folks.

Okay.

So think about what we're doing here.

We're mapping out where the highest probable time when the time range should

be influential in when the setups occur.

Now we're going to have a lot of tools to help us move down

into a lot more precision.

Even with this timeframe.

But you have to understand when the setups occur again, if it's something

that's not random, and if it is in fact manipulated and controlled, there

should be characteristics that repeat themselves and it should be measurable.

And we should be able to see things repeat themselves based on a

criteria, the algorithm will seek.

To do something in the first 20 days, the first 40 days.

And up to 60 days after the most recent market structure shift, we

saw a high form on the dollar index and expected the market to move lower

because it broke its market structure.

Bearishly we can see the Euro dollar.

Made a low here December 1st, 2015 and price moved higher

breaking market structure.

Bullishly for it in between the vertical lines.

Okay.

Once you have calibrated your market structure.

On a quarterly basis.

And we're assuming back in, back in 2015, December 1st that we

would have calibrate it there.

Now, again, I'm going to give you this as a homework, because I want

you to go through your charts and do this very exercise, and you're

gonna see it's not form fitted.

It's the same stuff that you can do on your own charts.

Don't just use what I'm using here.

Go into your charts and do the very thing that I'm showing you here,

assume that you started doing the analysis in for instance, July

of 2016 and do the same thing.

Okay.

And you'll see it.

It's still helps you.

It'll give you all the data points that you would be using.

If we see that we're expecting bullishness on the part of the Euro

dollar, because the dollar index was expected to go bearishly after December,

2015, that means all the way up into March, 2016, we have a stance that

the bear snitch and the dollar should bode well for bullshits on the year.

So between those two reference points, because we understand that December 1st.

Okay.

We go out forward three to four months.

We go as far as March 1st and by having March 1st.

Defined as the beginning of the new month out that at that far away, we project

projected that limit on the quarterly range in between December 1st and March

1st, we would be expecting a bullish signal to form in the Euro dollar.

And he bear signal the form in the dollar index.

Getting back to what we mentioned earlier about buy programs and

sell programs, the scenario would be even looking at a daily chart.

There's going to be a manipulation that takes place even on the higher timeframe

daily, let's go back to the dollar index.

Do you see the highs here?

All these highs are forming inside of the data range of 60 days to the right

of the beginning of December in 2015.

So all of these highs in here higher, higher, higher, higher

is seeing what, after the market structure break below this low.

All these retracements higher.

All that did was closing this liquidity void.

When this void closed in up here inside of the data range of 60 days, we had

to measure, is there all this justified by using a inversely related currency?

Like the Euro dollar.

Now we can go and take a look at the lows that were for.

And the Eurodollar

here's 20 days, 40 days and 60 days to the right of the delineation setting

our new marker for the quarterly shift.

Look at the lows here in the Euro dollar, all the up to the 60 day data range,

the lows were higher in the Euro dollar.

So this was underway.

Accumulation the underlying, which would be traded cause we

don't trade the dollar index.

We use it as a benchmark.

The underlying is failing to make a lower low again at the same time.

That the benchmark is making higher highs by all standards.

This looks like bullishness.

Every time a new high is formed and it looks like it's trying to go higher.

All it's dealing is inching up the clothes in this liquidity void.

That reference point that we talked about at the beginning of this teaching,

this is what it's looking to close in.

It's pressing higher at the same time.

All this higher high business is not being seen with lower lows in the Euro

dollar and it's occurring in between.

Where we delineate the market structure shift.

Here we go out three months.

That means there's going to be a move that takes place in the next three months.

When the daily chart we're looking for it to happen within 60 days,

I'll be new calendar month.

If this data range we'll go out and project that long, the 60 day

delineation nails, the very high.

So you have a buy in here and it ends right here after closing in this.

Okay.

So essentially what we're doing is, is we're reframing the market quarterly

and it gives us a context to look at the market modularly so we can take the

price action and really look inside of it and look for setups instead of just

being lost in the whole grand scheme of things, looking at the candles, highs,

and lows and all that business, you have to understand there's a, the rhythm.

And there's a, there's a method behind how price is delivered.

Even on a daily charts like this, every three months, the four months, there's

going to be a shakeup in the market.

There's going to be a sentiment shift.

There's going to be a change in trend.

Okay.

There's going to be excitement and check injected into the marketplace to cause

interest in a specific asset class.

Especially if it's an asset class that's been dormant for a while

and hasn't been traded as much.

They tend to take those markets.

So by looking at the market and breaking it down like this, it

gives us a great deal of context.

It's specific, it's measurable.

It gives us a very clear indication of what we're doing in house, how long it

should take the form, and then looking for the signs to create these setups.

You can see here at the lows, we had a market structure shift that

was bullish on the dollar index.

And please.

These highs in here taken out on the upside.

So no highs were violated on the upside prior to this tie here on the daily.

So institutional order flow broke to bullishness here because of

the shift in market structure to markets trading lower here.

Okay.

Now we have another divider.

Okay.

At June 1st, 2016.

So are you doing is adding another vertical line.

Once you have one, you go out in time and you add these individually.

Okay.

Now you can calibrate them as you see fit based on what the market's

doing, but I'm going to resist the temptation to calibrate it based on this

market structure shift here, because you could do the same thing here.

Once this market structure breaks bullishly here.

You can go back to May 1st and use that as you're dealing with.

And then start going 20 days, 40 days, 60 days to the right of it.

Okay.

And then draw another vertical line every three months or so.

And then that will be the same thing to me in conflict here, but I want to

keep everything as it is here, because I don't want to do any more than

it's necessary to teach this specific principal, because we're going to build

on as we go through January content.

But I want you to take a look at what this has done.

We have a local.

On a dollar index that we have a low here on the dollar index that's lower.

Then we have another lower, low on a dollar index after the market structure

has broken to the bullish side.

So once we have an interruption and the down move.

Okay.

Notice also it's been essentially six months of down movement.

That's about when you're going to see the shakeup that takes place.

And it's also going to be a seasonal influence.

We're going to talk about in January as well, but for this movement

here, I want you to take a look at the relationship of how the dollar

makes these lower lows in here.

Let's go back to the Euro dollar at the same time.

Let's see what was going on around June of 2016 in the Euro.

Well, we're not seeing that higher high.

That would be reasonably exciting.

As we saw lower lows and dollar, let's go back again.

We have lower lows in the dollar at the same time, we should be seeing

higher highs in the Euro dollar.

It's not happening.

We see a higher high here, but you have to look at every

institutional reference point.

We have an old hybrid.

Relatively.

This is not higher.

It's actually lower.

This is a market is a heavily being distributed.

This market run up here is just a run owned by so liquidity taking the buy

stops out on shore players already.

And in the market trades lower

in between the vertical lines that delineate the next market shift.

Okay.

There's a quarterly shift that takes place every three or four months.

And you can see that these smart money accumulation and distribution programs

are very easy to see in price action, but you have to define it in such a

way where you now look for it to occur.

Also notice, and I'll leave this for your own personal study.

How many days a week?

To the right of this calendar, start to just high form.

I'll leave that for your personal study.

I'll also counsel you to take a look at this day right here.

This is the election.

Okay.

Even on the day of the election, there is exactly out to 60 days to the right of.

Oh, here 60 days on the empty, empty four platform nails.

They're very, very high that gives us the sell-off.

So initially it opened up traded higher on the Euro dollar

and then rejected and traded aggressively lower this higher high.

Again, here's the old high.

This higher high is not being seen.

With a lower loan and the dollar index.

So dollars being accumulated, the underlying strength is in dollar.

You can't go lower.

And the Euro dollar only went higher to take out the buy stocks.

They're going to reject that as.

False strength, which is suspect rally and the price move lower as a result of it.

So I want you to go through this notes.

This is going to require you a lot of thinking.

That's why I said this month is going to be a lot of information.

That's why you have to have a video recording every single day

and they had to be pre recorded.

Okay.

Do any live sessions this entire month of January?

There's no way I have enough time in the day and also live my own personal

life to be able to complete all the things that's necessary to cover

long-term analysis and have it all encapsulated in the first month of 2017.

And then we can't framework going forward.

So go through the notes on this one again.

Go through your charts, also using it as well.

And again, in summary, all you're doing is you're looking for a obvious break and

shift in a marketplace like this one here.

Okay.

The market trades higher.

And then if we were looking at the market in February, we could go back

to January 1st and put our marketing.

And then go out 20 days, 40 days, 60 days, and you'd get something here.

We're looking back and see where the liquidity is resting.

You're looking back to finding what the liquidity is, then you're looking forward

or to the right of it, to get the very next setup in terms of the data range.

You're going to know how long it takes potentially before the next setup.

And how far back you look for the liquidity reference points for where

the stops are on above or below the lows and where the liquidity voids and gaps

are that you want to be referencing.

So it gives you context and believe me, we're going to have lots of examples

of this for January's content, but for the most part, I want you to look

at the market in a quarterly basis.

I want you to be able to calibrate your market share.

Okay.

On a quarterly basis, how it's been defined in this video, and then regardless

of where you're at in time, like for instance, say it was November 14th, 2016.

What month would you calibrate your vertical line to.

If he said October 1st, 2016, you're accurate.

You're correct.

If you just said anything other than that, you're wrong.

Okay.

You want to go back to the previous closed month?

You want to go back one full calendar month where it traded from the first

trading day to the last rain day, and then created a new month by doing that.

You calibrate yourself that way.

You'll be able to see what if is doing referenced.

And then you start walking forward from there.

When you see an obvious change in trend, which we saw up here, we

have a market structure break here.

Bearishly for the Euro.

All this rallying up is just another attempt to do what we saw happening

in the dollar back here when they had a market structure break, bearishly

it traded higher up the closing.

And then sold off the same things that's being seen here.

Market structure break here.

When it comes up, take out by side liquidity and underlying weaknesses.

Heavy distribution and the market goes lower as a result of it.

Again, we'll touch more on this as we go through the content throughout the

year, but for January, we'll touch more on this because I'm quite sure

while your gears are turning now.

And you're probably really excited about what you're seeing.

Some of you invariably are going to want to send me emails.

I didn't understand this.

I couldn't understand that.

Don't do that yet.

Hold off on sending emails and wait and see if the content doesn't answer

your questions by the end of the.

Until the next video.

I wish you good luck and good trading.