Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

This is the sixth of eight teachings and the November, 2016

curriculum of the ICT mentorship.

Okay, we're going to be teaching the macro economic to micro technical,

macro economic to the micro technical, macro, economic to the micro technical.

Okay.

And I'm showing you here, one of the secrets to how

I'm able to call the market.

As I do, and it's a macro perspective.

So in other words, it's not a day trading perspective.

It's not something that's going to be, uh, forcing you to look at 15

minute charts, not even an hourly chart, not even a four hour chart.

Okay.

We're going to be looking at daily charts only, and you probably

are wondering why is there a top secret image here at the bottom?

Well, below this.

Is going to be one of the closest guarded secrets of my repertoire.

And when I look at the marketplace, I use this as a barometer to help

me determine where the long-term trends of the marketplace is going.

Now there's a lot of folks that will scour bank reports and my opinion of bank

bank reports are this, uh, why would a bank tell you what their intention is?

It doesn't make any sense.

That's like having a football team, tell you what their players are

going to be for the super bowl.

It just doesn't happen.

So when I look at the marketplace and I'm looking for a long-term macro

view, uh, I'm looking for an insight that would give me a three to six

month outlook on where currencies may be heading in one direction.

And one of the things I use for that is interest rates and

the way we find interesting.

And the way I do it is I'm looking at the bond market.

The 30 year treasury market, uh, will give me the insights I need for interest rates

on a intermediate to long-term basis.

Uh long-term to me is three to six months.

It may not be long-term for you, but it is for me.

So what I look for is every three, every three to four months, there is

a quarterly shift that takes place.

And what I mean by that is whatever trend or whatever market condition is

prevalent for right now in three to four months time, there's usually a shift.

Okay.

There's either a reversal or it's an extended period of consolidation

and then a future resumption of the trend, or again, you know, a

reversal, but every three or four months, I'm looking for a change.

Because I believe there is a quarterly shift that takes place in the

marketplace and you'll learn a lot that, that later on is mentorship.

But for now I want to teach you how I use the bond market and how you

use the interest rate as a precursor for where the markets may go.

Uh, I don't require a whole lot of fundamental.

Just sift through.

I don't believe I have enough time in the day to go through all that I

knew there was a lot of folks that would probably hear me say that.

And scoff at the notion that, you know, fundamentals are, you

know, that's the, that's the backbone to, to the marketplace.

You need to know those things and yeah.

Submission to that is, uh, you know, who can keep up with that?

You know, I don't, I don't have time to keep up with it.

You know, I'm, I'm, I'm busy running a life.

I don't have, I don't have the time to be sifting through all the information.

And quite frankly, I'm not that astute to be able to discern what that data is.

So what I require is a visual interpretation of that data.

And what I subscribed to is the bond market will tell them.

If I can read price action in the bond market and not just the

bond market, but we're gonna look at the ten-year modes as well.

Uh, if we can get a feel for what the bond market's wanting to do, whether

it be trade higher or lower, then we can have a pretty good basis on what

the interest rate is going to do.

Okay.

So what we're looking at is, uh, about June, July, August time.

Okay.

June, July, August time period.

The top chart here is obviously the dollar index daily chart and the lower

chart is the treasury bond market.

Is it the December contract?

Okay.

So December contract for the dollar index above us in the futures

market and the December contract for the bond market on the lower end.

Okay.

So the lower chart is the bond market between July and August.

There was a high default.

In the bond market.

And for those to follow along on the, uh, Twitter and on my YouTube channel, um,

this summer, I mentioned that the debt market is going to have a major decline.

And I said that that, that was going to happen.

I also said it was going to happen in the blend.

I said it would happen across all the debt instruments.

So basically what I was implying was that interest rates were going to go higher.

If interest rates are going to go higher, that's going to allow

the dollar index to go higher.

Okay.

But when interest rates are going higher, that means that that the bond market is

going to drop as the bond market rallies.

That's a lowering of interest rates.

And when it drops down in the futures market for the bond market, that

is an increase in interest rates.

Okay.

Now the 30 treasury bond is the benchmark for what we have in the U S as our.

Um, right.

Well, we put a house on the market for, uh, for purchase.

Someone wants to a ball and chain debt program to pay off a house for 30 years.

Uh, the interest rate that's arrived at this market pretty

much is the benchmark for it.

Um, there is another interest rate, uh, asset market that I

look at, which is the tenure.

Now look at that and we'll look at that later on in this teaching here.

But what I want you to look at is when the bond market.

Is creating a high here.

Okay.

Uh, at the same time that the dollar index is making a low K, I want you

to take a look at what's going on here in the last week of June, we have the

dollar index making a low and the market failed to make a lower, low at the same

time that the bond market was making a higher high now in less than five.

Okay.

This month teaching, I taught you the SMT divergence relative to the

dollar index and foreign currencies.

That same idea is applied here, but for an interest rate divergent.

So in other words, we're looking at how the bond market

interacts with the dollar index.

So around every three, four months, there's going to be this

shift that takes place, this underlying change in the trends.

It's seen in the dollar index with the failure to make a lower low.

At the same time, the bond market made a higher high market traded softer at the

same time, all the way into the last week.

Midway point of August, we saw consolidation in the bond market as well.

Then we saw what the movement higher on the dollar index.

At the same time, we were seeing weakness in the bond market, which

means interest rates are increased.

Which means now we have the dollar index pulling back into a down candle,

which is a bullish sort of block.

So we can expect to see prices move higher on the dollar, which will

do what send the bond market lower.

So when we see this rally up, it's returning back to an up candle,

which is a bare shoulder block and it sells off again, this sell off.

Okay.

Accelerates the buying in the dark.

So if the dollar is going to accelerate going higher, let's

go back to this time period here.

Okay.

And reflect on the analysis I was given in the mentorship.

You all knew that I was looking at this particular time period

right here on the dollar.

And I said they were going to start going higher and we're going to be looking

for that $1 mark dependency 1 0 2 mark.

And the reason why I suspected that was going to happen is number

one, I was looking at the dollar.

There started with the USD as in their name or words, like dollar

CAD, dollar swissy dollar yen.

Um, I was looking at the dollar CAD and it just supported the idea that

we were going to go long here or start to go higher at the same time.

The bond market was rallying up returning back to a bearish order block.

So I knew what to expect was to see if we, if we turned the tide here and started

going lower on bonds that dropped down and bonds is an increase in interest.

An increase in interest rates is going to see a aggressive pouring

in of funds to buy up the dollar.

So that's what we're seeing here that, that, uh, that aggressive rally up the

market showed a willingness to drop even lower here on the bond market.

At the same time, there was a small little decline at the same time when the

bond market was dropping small little deviation from what would be considered

a normal, that was all attributed to.

The U S elections.

Nobody knew what to expect with the elections, except for ICT.

He said, Trump going to win.

So obviously Trump won overnight.

The futures market were tanking and the dollar index sank and the

Dow Jones futures were down like 750 points at one time overnight.

And all of a sudden the very next one.

Everything was peaches and cream.

It's been rocketing up since and 10 days in a row.

The market's been rallying up for the dollar index at the same time.

We've seen an accelerated so off in the bond market, which means

as an increase in interest rates.

When we look at the marketplace like this and utilizing the bond market to

help us, we can use that same idea as it relates to looking at divergence between

the bond market and the dollar index.

So with that said, I'm not going to go into great detail because obviously, you

know what I mean by that, but by using what was taught to you in the fifth

teaching of this month's content, Okay folks, we have the 10 year note to the

left and a 30 year bond to the right.

Okay.

I want you to take a look at the SMT divergence that

we have in these two charts.

Okay.

And I'm going to take a look at the currency markets and see how

that assisted us in analysis.

And again, this is a.

Long-term to intermediate term concept.

So it's aimed at giving you the next three to six months, outlook

on where currency should be going.

Okay.

So take a look at the 10 year note here, making a higher high here.

The same time 30 year made a lower bond market took off lower.

So the second week of September, we saw interest rates increasing.

By the effects of the bond market and ten-year note declining.

Then we saw the last week of September going into October, we saw this higher

high form and a 10 year while we saw lower high or SMT divergence in the 30 year.

And then immediately we saw another decline in both 10 year and 30 year,

which is an increase in interest.

So right away, we know that there should be a accelerated by or a rally

in the second week of September and the last week of September for the dollar.

So let's take a look at that.

Okay.

We can see here the dollar index first week of September here's that low we

would expect because we saw an increase in interest rates as a result of this.

With the divergence between the 10 year and a 30 year bond market.

And in the last week of September, we saw the market makeup rally

away from that point as well.

So we have a rally here in a rally here, and it begins that big movement higher.

Now, if we see that in the dollar index, we should be

seeing rallies in dollar Swiss.

Here's September is a month year, first week of September it rallies

last week of September it rallies.

So we see that same effect appearing us well in that dollar pair.

Uh, let's take a look at the dollar cat here September the first

week of September it rallies in a sale last week to this month of

September it rallies again as well.

Take a look at these.

Euro.

This is going to be the opposite.

We're going to see a high form the first week of September.

Here we are.

And then it sells off again the last week of September.

And there you go rolls over the pound.

We should be seeing a,

the pound.

We should be seeing the high form and a second.

Yeah.

September.

And so off the last week of September, so high here and

high here in accelerated so off.

Okay.

And that was the reason why also I told you we were going to be looking

for these loads to be violated.

That was all behind the scenes, why I was going that move here.

Okay.

And, uh, which also led to our target or my target that I, I

shared on Twitter and on YouTube.

That's still my YouTube channel videos calling for the one time.

Um, level four, uh, British pounds before the Brexit.

So, uh, and we'll add one more.

Let's take a look at the, uh, dollar Ian Kane and we have a low that

formed in the first week of September in the last week of September.

There's that pie and it takes off and it's taken off extremely high.

So again, it's a macro perspective.

Using macro economic principles, interest rates.

Okay.

And then utilizing that down to a micro technical, so we

can take all this information.

Okay.

And from the month of September, start looking for reasons to be a buyer for all

the dollar based currencies that start with the dollar first and their name,

we would be going along those pairs,

New Zealand.

We should be seeing a sell off around the first, second week of the month.

And we see it here the last week of the month.

I see it here and Aussie.

We should be seeing a sell off the first week of the month here and

the last week of the month here.

And you see that as well.

Okay.

Again, it helps you, it builds an idea about where the market should go

because of the underlying fundamentals, which I don't have to go through

fundamental reports and do all that.

I can rely on the interest rate markets that I know, which is the bond

market and the 10-year note, couple that with the dollar index, it's like

the pins in the lock turn for you.

And no one can take it from you.

So let's go back to the 10 year and the 30 year note.

Okay.

Now we're going to take a look at the.

Rally higher here on the 10 year, w that was not seen here on the 30 year.

So we know that there's going to be an accelerated rally on the dollar index.

The first week of November, obviously post us elections and let's go back

to our dollar index chart and we see November, we made that lower

load to that whole overnight fiasco with the sell off on the dollar.

And the Dow Jones was all fluff.

It was all manipulation because we see that lower low here in dollar,

but we did not see it in higher high, seen in the 10 year and 30

year futures on the debt instruments.

So interest rates that were calling the shots still, even though short term

heart attack on the charts in this down move here on the dollar and Dow Jones

overnight the day of the election.

Everything was put back in gear longer term with the acceleration

on the up, move on the dollar rally, chasing higher yields.

And you can see that also in the form of dollar Swiss dollar CAD

weakness, even though it looks like its strength above and old high.

Remember that's that false movement.

We look.

The SMT is telling you, it looks bullish with the underlying

tone of the marketplace.

There's no way that dollar is going to allow all the dollars a rally.

And that's why we're seeing to give up the ghost.

Same thing with the New Zealand dollar.

It looks bullish, starting off running, just taking out an old

high, then running down, lower

the dollar CAD.

Okay.

Accelerate.

To the upside

hero as well.

The initial run-up clearing out an area of buy stocks.

We talked about during this mentorship here it one 13 big figure, and

it's been slamming lower since.

So I hope he take this information, keep it close to your vest.

And in other words, don't share it with the general public.

Most people will never learn.

Yeah, uh, this tactic, um, I don't have a source to be able to say I learned it

from this one and that one, it was just me understanding the bond market as a

futures trader and understanding that the interest rate markets just basically

control everything around the world.

Okay.

It makes everything go, uh, in, in the financial industry.

Without interest rates, nothing moves.

So if I'm going to understand the industry market, it just stands to reason.

If as long as I know that my market and the 10 year note I'll know everything

I need to know and take a look at the bond, the German bond, and you'll

see that it's been going down also.

And that's the reason why I said it was going to go down.

Everything has been shown here today in this teaching again, please, please.

Don't make it common knowledge until next time.

I wish you good luck and good trading.