Original subtitles

Morning folks.

Welcome back.

This is October 5th, 2016.

Today's focus is going to be on the dollar CAD, and we're gonna be looking at the

volatility injections due out today, as it relates to the CAD trade balance.

We have high-impact news at that time, we also have a medium

impact news event for the dollar.

Now we also have another event later on this morning at 10:00 AM.

Dollar-based the ism non-fat non manufacturing, PMI, and then we have 10

$30 based crude oil inventories, which is going to be related to cat as well.

So dollar cat might be.

Pretty wild today.

Uh, but we're just going to study the, the impact of that liquidity injection

that we see around the news events.

We're going to see, um, if we're going to see a low liquidity

resistance of good grief, low resistance liquidity run, excuse me.

And then not tonight, we're actually going to take a look at.

The Australian dollar around eight 30, New York time, we're going to have a

ACE in session, uh, for the mentorship.

It's not that we don't do too many times, but, uh, since there is a high impact news

event, uh, we will be on tonight around eight 30 I'll sign on around eight 15.

I'll send the link 8:00 PM New York time.

So that way you guys can join.

Okay, you should be seeing the dollar.

This is a daily chart.

Can you see that?

Confirm it, please.

Appreciate that.

Thank you.

All right.

So what we have, uh, early on.

We've been pretty, pretty accurate in terms of the expectations on dollar.

We were anticipating a little bit of a move off of that low.

Uh, we saw that, uh, we ran above these highs.

I really like this back here.

We've mentioned this many times in previous weeks and

I'll ask you rhetorically.

What is this little area in here for you?

Quizzing, I'll tell you in a moment what it is, but right

above here, we have equal highs.

Now in the content for September, I told everyone to focus on

specific things, because it's going to allow you a foundation.

As you go through the mentorship, there's going to be things that reoccur, they

just were very generic things that keep coming up in the price action.

And by seeing that you train your mind.

And specifically your eye to receive this information.

As soon as you look at the chart, you activating your

reticular activating system.

Okay.

Which is very similar to when you buy a car.

Okay.

Um, you, you fancy a specific car, you buy it.

And then all of a sudden it seems like everybody else bought the same car.

But in fact, the only thing you've done is you've made yourself sensitive

to the fact and you've associated a measure of interest, high interest.

Okay.

To that car.

So therefore now your brains, allowing that information to come in, when we

get together every day, what I'm forcing you to do, if you haven't already

really realized it is I'm forcing you to have a focused perspective on specific

things that reoccur in price over time.

And I'm seeing a lot of this in feedback, and I saw a lot of it in

the, um, September content survey that folks are now starting to see

things that they weren't able to do by going through all the free tutorials.

And that's the benefit of being in, in charts on a day-to-day basis,

it's indicative of your progress.

So that's good.

So if you're feeling that, or if you're beginning to feel the sensation that

you're starting to see these things materialized, you're on the right track.

Okay.

And if you aren't at that point yet, trust me, we're going to get you

there in the first three months.

It's normal for you to feel this way.

Okay.

So what I'm looking at is.

I would like to see some expansion on the news.

That's out about 15 minutes.

I want to see if we can drive higher on the dollar to take us up into,

um, let me see where we're at here.

96, 55, 96 60.

So we're looking for about a 50 pit run.

Uh, that would essentially clear out this area in here.

And if we get above that, we have the bullish candle here,

which is a bearish or block.

Why?

Because smart money sells and rallies and we solve the market

and break down from there.

So the next point of interest on the upside, should we clear out this level?

And again, we don't know for certain, if it's going to do that, we're just

basically studying it this morning.

The, the low, oh no.

Low comes in at 96, 81 opens at 96 83.

So we're looking at 96, 80 on the upside.

If we get further momentum on the upside now on the downside, should we lose?

Because we did in fact, come up here and clear out these equal highs

yesterday, and we haven't shown any willingness to get up there yet again.

So that is something to be mindful of.

And we have to break this down a little bit to take a

closer look as to what may be.

All right.

So we have a swing low here cases, a four-hour chart.

So we have a swing low, and then right below we have a down candle.

So that's a bullish or a block.

So if it gets some knee-jerk reaction to the economic numbers that come out,

you want to be focusing on 95, 76.

So 95.

Or thereabouts, um, should offer support.

Um, if we roll through that, the last line of defense for near term bullishness

is going to be this candle right here.

Okay.

So that comes in the form of 95, 59.

I'd rather it not come down here because if it gets down to this

point, I'm not really terribly bullish at that, at that juncture.

Um, cause we would have already indicated that we'd taken out the highs

over here and this was a turtle soup.

Because there's multiple high impact, medium impact news events today,

I'm showing you the, the importance of focusing on days that have just.

High-impact or one, a medium impact news event.

So it is beneficial and it's profitable for us to look in terms of contrasting

what makes a high probability setup, where it's easy, it's all one-sided direction.

Um, it still can happen.

Those events can happen when you have multiple, uh, layered, um, news events

that high impact and, uh, medium impact.

You could still see the market move in one direction.

Uh, but it's highly.

Highly likely and more probable when it's only one high-impact or medium impact news

event specific to your currency of study.

Um, where are we at here?

CAD?

Let's go one more time into an hourly chart on this, this get one more closer.

Look at it.

Um, we have a small little.

Equal low in here.

Um, we could get a little bit of a run through that and then run higher.

That would be acceptable.

Um, but if we do drop right away at the, at the news event,

we're going to be studying again specifically this level here.

So I think if it's good, if it's solid and want to go higher, 95, 75 to 95,

80 should be the downside support.

And then we're gonna make a run on the high scene at 96 45.

So we'll look for 96, 45, 96, 50, and then was an extension maybe up to 96 80.

If we get lakes that also gives us if we're looking at dollar like

this, and we're doing analysis on the dollar that gives us what $4 cat,

it gives us room for this pair.

To go higher.

It doesn't have any kind of, um, uh, I guess really resistance

in the way of keeping it lower or keeping it from rising.

What's over here.

What do you see on this portion of the price action for this dollar

chart dollar CAD chart rather?

All kinds of buys stops are residing rate above that.

Okay.

Uh, we came all the way up through this void.

Okay.

And we're at the bear's order block in here.

Here's where the bodies of the candles are or by the other camera rather.

And the low comes down to here.

So you see the results of what's been seen here.

Now look what we have double top forming traders are going to try to

want to short this and they're going to put what above these equal highs

to go put their buys stop right above those highs.

Okay.

So we're going to focus primarily on the main threshold of this down candle.

Now this down candle.

The body of that down candle.

Look, what's going on over here with this down candle.

What is this down candle specifically?

It's a bullet or a block when we're looking at bullish, shorter blocks.

The level at which is our most sensitive is going to be the high to the open.

We don't want to see the mean threshold, which is the middle of that candle,

which again, notice what's going on with this candle right before it stops.

There we train again.

But then at that same low, prior to the actual low candle, for

me, the bull shorter block, it's already at the mean threshold.

So you can already see there's pricing built in already with that level.

Excuse me.

Excuse me the, um, hang on one second.

Oh.

It's called seasoned folks.

It's all, it's all.

It's, I'm not exhausted.

It's this cold season.

So what we're doing is we're going to be watching the input, the infects,

rather of the down candle, right in here, we have a bullshitter block here.

Then we have a higher down candle which supports this original buying,

seeing what this down candle, the body of this candle also goes right into.

Uh, the upper portion above the mean threshold of this down candle, it

supports that now we do WIC through it, which we allow we allow for that.

But now this candle here must be able to hold off any downside movement.

So we're gonna have a middle of that candle identified.

And you see we're coming already down into it now.

And that's, I don't want to get too fast too, you know, too aggressive

about getting into that because we've still got about seven minutes left.

So in summary, what we're doing is we're watching to see if price has a willingness

to come down and hit this level at one thirty, one ninety, we'll call it one

thirty, one ninety and then run to, uh, potentially while we're the first area.

We gotta, we learned about is this

I love when it's cold out.

I can't stand the summer.

But the only thing I don't like about winter is my children go to school

and they're in multiple schools.

So they all have the tendency to bring home germs.

And I am OCD like crazy with washing hands and all that stuff.

And when they come home, they're like little germ taxi cabs.

They bring a germs right in there.

My wife is not so, uh, anal about it, but I just can't.

I, I don't like it.

I mean, they, they come home and they're already, you know, looking

to go right into the refrigerator and grab something to drink a snack.

And it just drives me crazy.

You know, I don't, I don't like that.

They gotta be washing up.

And sometimes my wife allows him to just come right on in there

and then I go crazy about it.

My littlest one, he had, uh, a head cold about four days ago.

Not as bad as I got it, but it landed right on my face.

And it's relentless now.

All right.

So we're looking for the opening here and there's something you

don't care about that, but this is the, this is all part of the show.

You get to hear everything is going through my head,

the opening on the up candle.

Okay.

That's your bear shorter blocks.

So we're looking for a run up to 1 30, 2, 27 minimum.

Okay.

And then we're looking for a run up to the main threshold of this up candle.

If we can get through that, we're going to be looking for a run all

the way up into 32, 85, 30, 2 90.

So we could see a valor gives us about 50 PIP run.

That gives freedom for dollar CAD, the rally that much.

Now what change.

What says, okay, this is no good.

If we run right all through here.

Okay.

If we go through this, the last one we watch is here.

And then if some of you are newer, like, well, well that would be a loss.

If we took a trade there, you know, it would be, that's what happens sometimes.

All right.

So we are about five minutes out.

Um, while we're waiting for that, let's take a real quick look over at

cable just to give folks a dialed in.

If we get to, if we get to buy in CAD, it would be a low resistance liquid.

Yeah.

Because we would have dollar in sync moving higher and we only have

that little area of price action, which we'll go back to in a minute.

All right.

So we talked about yesterday, um, this specific level and here

we watched the trade up to it.

Uh, we said it would probably go down here and hit these stops looking

for a minimum of the first grade of 10 pips below these equal lows.

The bodies respected that rather handsomely spiked down, almost

got to the 20 PIP, a grade.

Didn't do it one more time here.

And then we consolidate it going into the close, small little

consolidation during the dead time.

Okay.

And then all of a sudden we get that little tiny little protectionary

market move, moving home.

Okay.

This little high up in here.

Was it reaching for it's reaching for the middle of this up candle here?

The market drives hard, aggressively lower.

Okay.

Nailing the 1 26 90 level in the outline that yesterday.

So I'm not going to rehash it here, but in summary, whenever the market is above and.

Big figure that it hasn't been to in awhile.

Um, usually the big figures year is your levels are very sensitive.

They'll see some measure of support resistance by themselves alone because

there's a lot of orders and transactions that go around there's numbers.

But because of, uh, The just sheer volume of orders that

stack around big figure levels.

It's not uncharacteristic at all for, for you to assume that markets trade through

at least by 10 pips, sometimes 20 pips.

But because of we are, you know, stagnating around here, I

didn't see much in way of 1 26, 80 as an institutional level.

I called 26 90 just because it would be a breach.

Re-pull it at 1 27 big figure.

So again, one more little lucky scenario.

All right.

So we're going to pay attention and keep her focused on the dollar CAD.

And I probably should have this split.

So let's do that.

Let's split the screen

so we can focus on both at the same time as you would your own training.

So used to keep my stuff one, one sharp, because I don't want to give too many

opportunities for me to goof up and talk about when I was in the free stuff.

And there's somebody going to take offense that well, you

should have been teaching us.

I don't even want Michael.

All right.

So we are minutes literally away from the news event.

Now for your study.

What you're going to do is if you see.

Price drop down there quickly.

Okay.

For an exercise, you can be a buyer at 1 30, 2 big figure on a limit.

Or if you're trying to really fancy dance it, you can do 1 30, 1 95.

Okay.

But your stop has to be,

um, it has to be in here.

Wellness.

So it has to look up.

Let me get this thing out of the way here.

Your stop has to be around 1 30, 1 60 ish.

Yeah.

At 1 30, 1 60.

So about 40 pips start roughly 35 pips if you use 31 95.

Okay.

We're just about there.

Now, what you're looking for is you want to see price.

Then now here's the thing.

This is why it's tricky.

The dollar could shoot down, clear out these lows and den run higher.

I'd rather not do that.

I'd rather just run because we've already seen the price come down here and with

down any liquidity that would be below the marketplace has already been absorbed.

Price is now hitting the mean threshold.

This or block here.

The last line of defense is here.

If we go through this, they will want to take the stock.

Uh, it's not a huge stop.

It's just relative to the price action.

That's on their chart.

If you're late, if you're gonna be trading on a daily chart, you're gonna be using

a couple of hundred PIP stops sometimes.

So again, it's all relative.

You can't use five pit stops everywhere.

Okay.

Eight 30 numbers should be out.

Okay.

Want to see dollar expand on the upside, the first level

of sensitivity on the dollar?

We didn't notice.

I was talking too much about everything.

Again, we are equal Heights in here to be mindful that

now the difference between a day like this, again, this is what

we're trying to contrast is we have multiple events going off in the

same day, around the same currencies.

Okay.

Dollar.

So if you're going to have multiple events off going off on the same day, does that

present clean one sided driven price action or does it cause more opportunity

for you to see whip selling and runs on stops before the actual move change?

Exactly.

Very good.

Everyone's saying the same thing.

Um, whip stalling, and more likelihood of less symmetrical price actions.

No, it doesn't mean that you won't.

Set up sometimes, you know, sometimes it's, it works out great.

But I want you to know the difference between when you

go into your own live trades.

Okay.

And you're trading with live funds eventually on your own.

When you decide to do it on your own, let's say it like that.

Um, you're going to find it.

It's going to be much easier to predict forecast and trade in

those conditions where the market doesn't have all these landmines.

Okay.

We talked about that in September.

So while everything may be appearing.

By one fashion or another, uh, you know, supplying a bias for a

bullish move or a bearish move.

You have a lot of reason to anticipate the market to go underneath lows and above

highs and not go in a direction you want it to go to initially because of all of

the, uh, well, the smokescreen that's caused by these, these news releases.

And again, this is the reason why I tell everyone it's a

waste of time to try to print.

The outcome of the markets news.

I mean, you're predicting basically lottery numbers, you know, and then on

top of it, sometimes there's numbers that should reflect bullishness or bearishness,

you don't see that actually unfold.

So it's rather stupid.

In my opinion, it's either focused on price or you don't focus on price.

All right.

The last line of defense is this level right in here.

31 82.

Dollar may be waiting on 10 o'clock news, 10 30 news crude oil inventories.

And if that's the case, say dollar stays in this tight little range here, but it

does not come down and take out these lows that would indicate that this comparison

wanting to come down, take the stock.

Re hit the bottom.

I'm sorry about bottom.

The opening of this down candle.

That's what I'm focusing on.

So I had two people ask, why is this level being drawn out here?

If we see price come down and take out this low here, folks

are already long somebody long.

Okay.

And the only swing load has been violated is this one in here.

And while I did it at the handsome Liam ran, ran through.

There's a lot of folks that would have trailed our stop loss rate below this low.

If this thing's going to go to 30 to 80, 30 to 90 on the upside.

Okay.

Relative to dollar CAD, it's not unlikely for it to come down and sweep these here.

So if we stay in a tight range for dollar and this pair drifts down and

takes out this low, it's just going to be a run and liquidity below this low,

low, and then probably at 10 o'clock that's when we'll see the release.

On the heels of the crude oil inventories, then you'll probably see the majority

of the expansion on the upside.

Then right now, all we're doing is we're studying it in relationship to

the days that we're not going to have all these multiple events in the news.

Hang on one second.

What do you mean by that?

Daniel?

I don't, I don't understand what your question is.

Recap and old or block.

What does that mean?

Yes, this would be a low resistance liquidity run to 1 30, 2 85.

Yeah.

It's the down candle right before this big, I mean, it's obvious big run here.

It's pretty obvious on the chart, right?

I mean, you can't miss that.

It's jumping off the chart at you.

So if you see this, okay.

We know that they bought the banks, bought all during these down moves and

they kept stabbing price downs, that and price down, accumulating more orders,

and then price releases to the upside.

Now, when it released to the ups, Our focus goes back to here, but we already

have a small swing low in here as well.

Ahead of the news.

We have to look at the willingness of the smart money to want to

recapitalize this or block year.

It doesn't have to.

In fact, it's better if it doesn't come down to this one, but I'm telling you in

terms of setups, if we trade down to this, when we have to first contend with this

one, if we're bullish, this is the best.

If we go through this one, the last opportunity to be a buyer would

be down here on a spike, which may occur still around 10 o'clock.

If we trade through the highs here, then I wouldn't even

consider being a move below here.

If it goes below this low here, after it takes out equal highs, you

don't want to be back in the market.

And when it's below this down candle here, no.

Whereas if it was a go through and trade above these equal highs it's created today

or in relative to yesterday, uh, what does that actually entail in terms of.

Hi comes in at 32, 19 and 13, 19.

So it's exactly to the PIP in terms of yesterday's high and today's high.

So in a perfect world, we'd like to see it move from where it's at now.

Trade back above 32.

No, I think it's the search to 20.

It should spread its wings and go a little bit higher.

If it gets to 30 to 20, you do not want to be long in dollar CAD.

If it goes back down below the middle of this up, I'm sorry, this

down candle, because it would be no reason for it to come back down

there when it's already in it now.

So if it's accumulating by orders in this down candle, which is what we

would reasonably expect, if it does.

Continue after going to 1 30, 2 20, and it comes back down into this area here.

That's not a trade you want to belong in because what it would indicate is

that the market came up, swept these equal highs, and then you got to move

to the sidelines because momentum is probably not going to be on your side.

Technically it's low resistance.

Liquidity run, but because of the economic news front, there are so

many high impact and medium impact.

It keeps me from taking actual live trade.

So the context is yes, it's a low resistance liquidity run, but that's

what I'm trying to tell you by showing you this and contrast when there's

an economic report, that's only high-impact or medium impact that

relates directly to the currency pair you're studying for that particular.

If you see that and the technicals indicate it's a low resistant liquidity

run, it means it should easily get there.

That's the, that's the time when you actually trade all all the time.

That's the one you always get in there, but I'm showing you because I need

you to see it by experience that while sometimes it may pan out, there's going

to be difficulty when you're trading in an environment that has multiple layered

high-impact and medium impact news events around that particular currency pair.

There will be discount right now relative to the swing from this

low to this high, the question is, is where we at right now discount.

Uh, this is the current impulse price way.

We've retraced down into a bullish shoulder block.

We don't want to see this candle.

This is our candle.

So we got a little bit of time.

You don't wanna see this candle closed down in here.

You want to see it actually come out for that.

The sticking point for this one is the dollars not willing to come out of

this little range that it's holding.

If we get some expansion in here that will help dollar cat, but

what would we need to see, to decide as long as viable from here?

Well, you'd need, you would need to see the dollar expanding, but strong.

You know, big bullish candles in here and it not go through

the middle of this down candle.

The question is why not looking at the hourly chart?

Because our chart has this big bearish candle, which is a bullet shorter block.

And I'm going to frame the idea on a higher timeframe chart,

not a five or 15 minutes.

So if I'm trading on the set, the technicals that are on a higher timeframe

chart, that means higher than 15 minutes, that's going to be the hourly chart.

So if I'm looking for a day trade or a potential, um, short-term trade, then it's

going to be looked at one an hourly basis.

There's more significance placed on an ally chart than there

would be a five minute chart.

So I probably had 12 minutes in after the news release

impulse price swing is what was explained in the September con.

It's just, uh, obvious price run higher or lower.

Like this is an impulse price swing.

Here's an impulse price swing.

Um, every time you see the market drive one direction higher or another,

it's the obvious price swings.

That's basically all.

Uh, Sandra, what we, what we do is we, we do exercises every single

opportunity we can because you condition yourself to study price

action, and you get, you get closer.

Reading price by getting involved with it.

And the hardest thing for you to, uh, the ones who resist okay.

Is to get in there and train when you don't know what

you're going to be feeling.

So if we're in here in conditions like this, while it's not a high probability

because of the economic news, front and multiple high impact, medium impact news,

it still can be a valid exercise because you're going to see things in your chart.

Okay, you're going to see things in your, in your price action study.

And you're going to say, well, this really looks like a good buy, or it

really looks like a good sell, but you're going to have barriers based

on what the market makers are going to do because of the economic calendar.

The economic calendar is going to be used as a smoke screen while

they drive price around intraday.

And then ultimately after all the news is done, then they'll take the

price wherever they want to take it.

It's difficult to trace.

In these environments, and that's what I'm trying to highlight while

the charts may indicate all kinds of potential setup, the least resistance.

Okay.

In terms of where you want to see price go.

And when the economic counter doesn't provide any landmines in terms of barriers

to that directional bias, because every time a news event comes out, that's

high impact or medium impact, they could potentially call short-term cases.

Where it doesn't allow your price action to be as clean and just real symmetrical.

It makes it hard.

And that's what I want you to feel.

I want you to be in here looking at this and saying, this is

not operating and moving.

Like I would like to see it.

And that's the, that's the very thing that you should be taking away from it.

Even as that, even if this goes to 1 30, 2 90 today, or 1 30, 3 big, big things.

Okay.

I don't want you to walk away with thinking, well, I'm always going to

trade this because that's the secret.

The secret is that the high impact news and there's a lot of them.

So that makes the moose bigger.

No, that's not what I'm teaching here.

What I'm teaching you is that while the technicals may still unfold, the

fact that we have all of these high impact, medium impact news events

that are directly related to the currency pair of on there of our

study, that's going to be an impact.

To you seeing your technicals pan out in the question's going to be,

why are we even bothering with this?

Then let's just focus on the ones that work, because you're always going to

see things that look like they're there.

And then they're going to show signs and evidences of what we're seeing today.

And then when you see these, you need to think about what you've learned

by doing this as an exercise and spending time in the charts every day

with me, believe me, there's, you'll see plenty of opportunities when

we're looking at the market where.

Economic front it's easy.

There's only one impact or no events, really?

And then you have the technicals in line.

If I could have gone back in time and had the information that you're being

exposed to right now, this kind of stuff, because this is what I lost money on.

These are the events and conditions that I forced my will in the marketplace.

And I wouldn't accept when the market was no longer.

Good.

I would still hold onto the idea and just say, well, I'm going

to come hell or high water.

I'm just going to stick to it.

Cause I was afraid if I closed it or collapsed it with a small loss

or even a Martin, your marginal win just to get out of the trade

because it no longer looked good.

And just exercise.

You sound money management and risk management and not burn up mental capital

because you're spending a lot of mental capital entries that don't move for you.

It takes a lot of energy to be worrying about them.

So if I could have learned these lessons by identifying the things that are a

barrier to your trade painting out, I could have been much more flexible.

To allow myself to number one, identify when it's not good.

When it's no longer any valid set up or the probabilities may have shifted

from high to now less favorable.

It doesn't mean that the market won't move in your favor.

Okay.

But if you get out, you can't lose any.

And that's, that's the best condition to be in as a trader the condition

at which you cannot lose money.

That means the sidelines when you're not at risk, that's the best position

right now, not right now for the study, but I'm saying right now for

you as a new trader, you need to be learning and getting in there and seeing

what it feels like to be in a trade.

Seeing what the dynamics are.

I mean, look at the dollar.

The dollar is not even moving.

And we've had hot, medium impact news for dollar, and we

had high impact news for CAD.

This thing is probably waiting for the 10 o'clock news release

and then 10 30 PMI numbers.

Uh, no, this for this run to 32 85 is a low resistance liquid.

Okay for your notes, make sure you understand what I'm saying here.

A low resistance liquidity run is a technical definition.

It's not a economic news calendar definition.

Okay.

I'm teaching you.

Number one, the technicals are defining whether or not the market has resistance

or low resistance to get to where you think it's going to go over here.

Okay.

We have 1, 2, 3, but it's all clean highs.

Okay.

So we know there's a lot of orders stacked above that.

This is only an hourly chart.

How many days did it take to make all this price actions?

About two, about two days worth of trading.

So we only have two days worth of trading, holding price at bay.

And we have a consolidation in here.

The markets came off of this nice run here.

We're consolidating.

We got a bullish, shorter block.

We have another higher bullish, shorter block.

We come back down into that order block.

We've not come through.

We have not eaten up this entire range yet.

Okay.

We didn't go down below the means threshold of this down candle.

So while you're studying.

Okay, this is, these are the signs that you're looking for.

This is all part of trade management.

It's also, also part of the theme for this month is risk management.

So if you have a, if you have a long one right now as a drill, okay.

We, we said that we would be lonely at 1 30, 2 big figure or 1 30, 1 95.

We're just going to say we've got 1 30, 2 big figure.

Okay.

You have to, your stock would be down at 1 30, 1 60.

Okay.

So we have about 40 pips of risk, 35 to 40 pips of risk in terms of the trade.

Does that mean we're, we're willing to take the full 40 or 35 pips

stop stop-loss as a full hit?

No.

Remember when I taught that, just because the stop, maybe 40 pips, it might

be sometimes a 60 PIP stop depending upon what the setup's providing them.

Don't negate that as a viable trade, just because it's above your 10

PIP comfort level or what you're trying to aspire to trade with 10

PIP stops that that's not realistic.

Okay.

Especially on a day where we have a lot of impact news coming out.

So if we have the understanding that this trade has the potential,

technically as the trade potential to go up and clear out these holes.

Because it's technically there.

It doesn't mean that it's going to go there one way very seamlessly without any

resistance, because the economic calendar has all these basically landmines.

So we have a lot of, well look at it.

I mean, let's go back to a calendar real quick.

I mean, look what we got.

We have 1, 2, 3 events.

Okay.

Eight 30 to 10 30.

We have two hours of landmines.

Okay.

To get through.

So price could be bullied around a lot in those two hours.

So my question to you is this, if you're going to be a trader, okay.

And you want to have the lead.

Amount of energy spent on worrying.

Okay.

And having least, um, the least anxiety about your trading.

Do you want to trade even if the technical support it, do you want

to be trading in an environment?

Has all these potential barriers to the market running to where you want it

to go or focusing, focusing on days of the week where the technicals lineup.

The news events are supporting it.

You might have one or one medium or one high impact news

event for your currency trade.

Obviously I saying the same thing you would be looking for primarily

looking for the one injection of volatility by way of a high impact

or a medium impact news event.

One for your trading session around the currency pair that has technicals lines.

So you're blending both.

Now.

I'm not a fundamental trader.

I don't view this as fundamentals.

I view it as manipulation.

Okay.

Uh, manipulation is not fundamental.

These calendars highlight when the market has well, when it has all the recipe or

ingredients for a recipe of having your, uh, your market, uh, account beach up.

All right.

So far again, we're watching.

It looks like it wants to move up a little bit in here.

That's good.

That's support your bullish or blocks over here.

Okay.

The down candles again, if we're expecting the market to move higher.

Okay.

If we're bullish on the marketplace, where is our focus at the down candles?

That down candles should provide support.

If the down candles in the markets that you're studying fail to support price.

That is not showing institutional sponsorship.

It's showing a lack of new buying.

And if they're not supporting the down candles, nothing else will.

So what we're doing is we're watching, we're going to see if dollar can spread

its wings and go a little bit higher here, and that would support this

bullish or a block over here for CAD.

And then we'd watch and see if we can get back above that 1 32.

Well, one 30 to 5, 1 30 to 10.

We'd like to see it, get a, get above that.

If it goes back above 32 0 5, then you're, then you're allowed to go

down until a 15 minute timeframe.

The question is when would we use a smaller timeframe?

Like 15 minutes.

It has to show a willingness to get above a level of well, to get the reason why I'm

saying 32 0 5 is because, look, we have two candles here, two down candles here.

Okay.

And we're, we're reaching into this.

If we looked at this as a two hour can a two hour chart, this would fall.

Basically a two hour down candle.

So we're dipping into what would be viewed as a two hour bearish candle or bullish

order block because smart money buys when the market drops, all we're doing

is we're seeing it dip down into that.

If it's good, it should see a willingness to support.

So if we start trading down the lower portion of this last hour, last down

candle that is not supportive of looking for dollar CAD to run from

our entry point, we would have to reassess and see what, you know,

if we're willing to hold the trade.

That means if you're stopped down at 1 30, 1 60.

Okay.

And we're long at 1 30, 2 big figure, we have a 40 PIP.

Stop it.

Right.

If we get down below the mean threshold of this down candle right here,

that price comes in at 1 30, 180 2.

So we don't have really 60 pips at risk.

We have a catastrophic stock in place.

That means if price were to run down here, we're protected as best we can.

It's our shield.

But if it gets down below 1 30, 180, it where's it going to reach for most

likely, it's going to go below these lows and then you're real close to your.

You're spending a lot of mental capital and you don't need to do that.

So if it's good, it should not come back down below that low

there, it should not do it at all.

So what I'm saying essentially is this, uh, in terms of our theme for the month

risk management, um, we can have, uh, a 40 PIP stop on down at 1 31 seconds.

What an entry long at 1 32 big figure.

And we're watching levels that are higher than our stop.

So in numbers, we're allowing price to come down to these levels and

we're studying the sensitivity of supporting price there or not.

If it doesn't support these levels.

Okay.

Or if price isn't being supported by these levels, I should say that way.

Then our stock is ingested.

Correct.

I mean, would you all agree that that's probably a good assessment based on what

you understand about the honor block?

So my question is this, how many times have you been in a trade?

And as soon as you start thinking, what should I do if you ask

yourself, what should I do?

And you don't have an answer for that before you put the trade on,

did you effectively plan your trade?

Absolutely not.

You have no idea what you're doing.

You're flying by the seat of your pant.

And then it's not, it's not a surprise while you're, you're not making money.

And then when you make money, then you're a rockstar.

You're telling everybody, man, I'm still, I'm all.

I'm awesome.

But when you lose, you, can't figure out what it is that you should have done.

And then if you go back and look at it in hindsight, and you're honest

with yourself, you saw all the warning signs, but you didn't take it.

If you're driving in your car and you see construction ahead, expect major delay.

If you're a typical guy, you're thinking, well, that's not going to affect me.

I'm going to get through that.

But your wife will tell you, why don't you take the next exit ramp?

You don't do it.

Do you, you stay on there.

You're going to prove her wrong.

You remember we were wrong.

And the narrative is you ended up sitting in traffic and you got to listen

to her saying, you know, I told you this and you could have avoided it by

having your trade planned out and know what level should be supported, what

levels aren't supporting your idea.

Okay.

No worries.

If we're saying, is, is this down candle here?

If we go below that, that candles middle point right there at 1 30,

180 2, the stop is in jeopardy.

So even though we have a full 40 PIP stop in place, we're

not really risking 40 pips.

We're watching price.

We're studying it to see if it has a willingness to go higher.

If it doesn't give us indications that it wants to go higher, we

can collapse the trade with FARA.

That's all as a law.

So if we have say we take a full 2% risk, okay.

Which you wouldn't have that on a trade like this, but if say it's a 2% risk.

If it gets down to this point here, basically you're, you're

cutting off 1% of the, uh, of the risk and moving to the sideline.

So if you're willing to take a two per cent full hit at 40 PEPs

as a stop, you can monitor and manage the trade in terms of risk.

Because right now, W w w our focus is we don't want to see this level give

up and always, it doesn't want it.

We don't want to see one eight, I'm sorry, 1 30, 180 2, or 1 30, 180 to be violated.

Okay.

And if it does, that's high probability, it's going to

want to reach below these lows.

If it does, it could potentially come down and hit this order block.

And that would not be favorable for our entries stop loss,

which would be at 31 60.

So if, as long as it stays above 3,100, We're good.

As soon as it gets to 31 80, then you got to consider either taking half

of the trade off for managing risk.

Okay.

Or collapsing the entire trade and waiting for the 10 o'clock hour

to see if the news event supports a buy event or a trade at all.

So there's a, there's a lot of balancing act.

Okay.

Until your trade gets a book.

A specific price level.

Um, what we would need this tray to do is it needs to get above this

candle's high here because it's the beginning of the Bush or block.

If we were looking at a two hour chart, because it's two down candles

before this up moves started, I don't have the capacity with this

platform to show it to our chart.

So because we can see price like this and understand what we're looking at.

The high comes in at 32 0 2.

That's what I'm saying.

It needs to get back above 32 0 5.

To leave the down candles or the bull or block, then it would give

us reason to look for expansion.

As long as it's doing what it's doing now, the trade doesn't

doesn't have any, uh, support.

The reason why we wouldn't go down to a 15 minute timeframe for study is because

we're watching price to see if it wants to get above these two down candles.

If it does, we're leaving, going higher.

We're leaving these two down candles.

In other words, it's this is a bullet shorter block.

I want a two hours, uh, perspective.

So if price moves higher and gets.

32 0 5.

We have moved above these two down candles.

That means price has found support and we're leaving it.

So now we can go and we will, if we could see that we would drop down

to a 15 minute timeframe and then study the order blocks on that lower

timeframe, but we're not seeing it here.

So we have to stay on this timeframe to monitor the support or lack of support,

seeing what these two down candles.

In reference to time stops.

Uh, you'd have to consider equity's opening at nine 30.

The major takeaway for this is you're seeing the struggle of price, moving

to areas that we would already identify as highly probable runs on liquidity.

That means these equal highs up in here.

There's a lot of buy stops above that.

Okay.

And wow.

We did come back up here and closing this void.

If we have bullish dollar, which I suspect we do, this is going

to be a washout on the highs.

How long did it take me to learn how to trade?

I'm still learning how to trade.

The question is, is how, how long would I wait after 1 31 is violated

and do I need it to close there?

I would not allow it to trade below 1 30, 180 and still keep the stock.

Let's put it that way.

And the reason why is because we've already think about, let

me throw it back in a loop.

This down candle.

We're gonna assume that's the bullish shorter block here.

Price goes through on this candle over here.

See this, see this up candle right here.

That candle violated the high of this down candle.

So now this candle, if it trades back down into it should support price.

The very next candle does what it goes down into it.

So we should see buying.

Do we see buying yes, price rallies, but does that rally

take us above the previous one?

On impulse swing lower.

No, it doesn't.

So that's why I'm trying to tell you, there's a lot of things that are in

this setup that are good in a lot of sense, but then there's other things

because of the economic calendar, it makes it a barrier to see it.

And it's going to be frustrating for you.

That's what I'm saying.

Even if this is even if this goes to, okay, let's say it like this.

If this goes to 32 85, say it runs at 32 weeks.

Some of you that are new will only take away from this as, wow.

This really works.

I'm so glad.

And yada, yada yada, or I'm going to make so much money because this is easy.

And in fact, what I'm trying to teach you is that it's not easy trading

in these types of environments.

Even if the technicals PNL, it will feel much easier when we

only have one economic driver on a calendar and the technicals lineup.

Then it's easy trading,

but I want you to focus on the impact that these events have.

Okay.

It causes a struggle for your trades to pan out, and then when you're in trades.

Okay.

And you all know what this feels like as if you traded live money,

you know, intimately with this field.

The market's going to move a little bit in your favor, then it's going to

hang around where you got to enter.

Then we'll go just below the dealing spread and hold it there for a long time.

And you'll wait and you'll watch and your weight and your watch.

And you're spending all kinds of mental capital in this.

And then all of a sudden you can't handle it anymore and you

get out, you collapse the trade.

It's just, you've got to get out of it.

And then, then it pans out and it goes right to where you thought it was.

And then you'll tell everybody I knew it was going to go.

Or you'll tell your spouse, or you will have it all over, you know,

the forums and sharing on Twitter.

I called this move, yada, yada, yada, but you're really not telling me

about you collapse the trade either.

So you're looking for moral victory, but you're not making

any money you're struggling.

And that's what I'm trying to tell you by doing these, these events that

we do in studying it, you're forcing yourself into an experience level that

you can't get by looking at videos.

You can't.

I can't teach these things to you in a video, you have to be

here watching price real time.

And if you can't be in the videos, live recordings the same way.

There's no difference between Watson the recording like this.

If you were here live, it's the same thing happening.

Price is happening as we're talking, but when we have the events

lined up technically and economic calendars in favor, no worries.

There's not going to be any barrier.

The market makers don't have anything in there, in there.

Uh, repertoire for the day, the screw up short-term volatility, then it makes easy.

It's so easy.

It's, it's easy, easy, easy.

And I'll say that and I'd say it to so, uh, to a CFTC trader.

Okay.

Monitor if a guy's watching and if you're in here listening.

Yes.

In those, in those events, trading is easy.

Any other time, it's very, very hard, absolutely hard.

And this is the reasons why you have all these things that are in your life.

I didn't learn.

I didn't learn anything from the federal reserve nobody's ever spoke

to me from the federal reserve.

I suspect they probably wouldn't be interested in,

uh, in talking to me actually.

All right.

So what we're gonna do is I'm gonna let you guys study this the rest of

the morning until around 10 o'clock.

Um, again, y'all want to see 1 30, 180 violated if it does.

It's probably going to sweep below 1 30, 1 70, and if it goes down there

and we will probably retouch 31 60.

Okay.

I'm still watching that 10 o'clock news release.

As long as we don't eat up into the 31 60 level, uh, two months.

Uh, this could be the setup for the 10 o'clock.

If we, if we come down through here, all eyes are on this level down here for

the still the same thing, looking for a long up into 32 85 there, thereabouts.

Um, if we can stay consolidated in here.

Great.

That'd be wonderful.

Okay.

Um, and me personally, I like to see it get back above that 32 0 5 level.

If it does get about 3,205 dropped down to a 15 minute timeframe,

and then you would be looking for.

You have to watch this down Campbell right here.

Okay.

So if we get about 32 or five, all eyes would be on the top of this candle here.

So 31 95 would be your support level and you'd have to watch that and it shouldn't

come back into that level at all.

If we go about 32.

Does that make sense?

You understand what you're looking at and studying the rest of the morning

and I'll follow along on Twitter, around the 10 o'clock with you guys.

Okay.

Don't don't negate trading in exercises.

It, these events I'm telling you, you're going to get the majority of

the value that you're really seeking by doing these types of things,

because the other stuff is easy.

Making money with the easy trade setup.

I don't want you focusing on that because they'll take care of themselves.

You need to know what it feels like to be in these environments, because it's

going to be hard for you to want to stay in them or to see them pan out.

Even if the technical is on unfold, it's going to be a struggle for those ideas to

pan out because the market makers are not going to release price in that direction

until they can knock out the wrong side or those individual on the right side,

or put them on the wrong side first.

And then, then they'll take.

And I'll explain all that more today in the recap, when we go with the video.

All right, folks, catch up with you later on this afternoon, follow along

on Twitter and I'll see you later.