Original subtitles

Good afternoon folks.

This is ICT with a market review for October 20th, 2016.

Okay.

Today we have pretty busy economic calendar.

We had retail sales for GBP and during the London session.

And then during the New York session, we had Euro minimum bid rate, and then we

had the big one, the ECB press conference.

Uh, couple that with the Philly fed manufacturing index

and the unemployment claims.

So we had a pretty intense economic counter with lots of high-impact

news spread across the entire day.

Uh, the highlight was for a Euro dollar, obviously, and then later on

nine o'clock in the morning, GBP at a member, uh, speaking as well, uh, 10

o'clock in the morning, we had dollar medium impact existing home sales.

I'm gonna take you for a moment briefly over in a flashback,

but from yesterday's review.

And this is at the three minute and 15 second mark.

So listen carefully.

What I'm talking about in regards to the Euro.

I wasn't near the market.

Couldn't see.

It didn't have anything I could have done to capitalize on it.

But nonetheless, um, I wanna to see a tree up a little bit higher than

about that 1, 10 41, 10 35 to 1 10 40.

That would have been a reason for me to want to get short bear and

then reach for the cell stops here.

If I was going to do anything that demo, just for example purposes for this week.

Okay.

So while the setup didn't form yesterday, uh, on the heels of the ECB

press conference, uh, high-impact news at eight 30 this morning during the

New York session, uh, we're going to take a look at that, uh, Euro dollar

setup, uh, before we get to it, let's briefly go over to the dollar index

and I'll break it all down for you.

Uh, we were looking for a run to 98 55.

Dollar index.

And so far today, uh, we had a high of 98 40, so we're just

15 pips short of the objective.

We were looking for $4 and that's on the basis of these highs up here

with, by stops, resting just above it.

So we're just, uh, just a little bit short of that.

The, uh, the stops that we identified at 97 70 once they were cleared

out, we went into consolidation and during the ECB press conference and

unemployment, uh, numbers, we saw that sweep down one more time, uh, expansion

on the daily range, and it quickly rejected that and made a run on the

buy stops above these highs over here, uh, noticed that we, uh, one only.

Uh, 10, 20 pips or so above that.

So it will be interesting to see if we maintain a willingness

to want to continue up to that.

98, 55, 98, 60 level the Euro.

Okay.

I gave you a specific level, a yesterday's review, the 1 10 40

level, specifically 1 10 35 to 1, 10 40 for a selling opportunity.

And while I didn't really break it down, cause I was kind of

rushing through yesterday's review.

Um, I'm glad I gave you the, uh, the expectation of what

those levels should be offering.

Um, but what you don't see here on the daily chart, we can.

Draw out a little bit more detail relative to the four-hour chart.

And I didn't want to deal with that timeframe.

Let's let's go over here and do this.

Okay.

Which you can see is on the four-hour chart.

We have a.

Bullish candle, right for the down move in this price swing.

So this is an up candle who sells during up candles or up movement.

It's smart money.

The opening on that candle, this the last up candle wars are bear shorter block.

In other words, opening comes in at 1 10 40.

So that's the reason why I said 1 10 40 was a significant level.

Also notice that also has this level coming just above and old high in here.

So we have a level of buy stops here, coupled with an order.

In the bear sense right above it.

So again, the opening price is at 1 10 40.

Can I put this right here?

Okay.

At 1 10 40.

Now today, the actual intraday high comes in and exactly 1 10 40.

So it's just one more thing for your notes.

. Reflection on these big, high impact news that releases the ECB press release.

Uh, anytime there is these high impact news.

Yes.

They can go beyond where you think they may go.

Okay.

But many times they still fall in, in line with what we've anticipated

in terms of institutional order flow.

Uh, it went right to 1 10 40.

Here's the intraday price action.

This is the eight 30 relief.

Okay.

Price goes right up to the 1 10 40 level.

Again, let's look at that high.

It comes in at 1 10 40.

He hits it perfectly.

It doesn't go one PIP above it doesn't fall short of it because

right to it and it falls down.

Okay.

I said yesterday that I wasn't, I would have been interested in taking

a short around 1, 10 35 to 1, 10 40, then expect the stops to be swept out.

So let's go back out to a daily.

And you can see that's where the cell stops were below the lows.

And after hitting that level here, then it went down and

cleared him out rather handsomely.

So we went nice.

20 pips below it, cleared out there's, uh, there's cell stops.

Now the next level.

Uh, to be mindful of is obviously the low here.

Okay.

And that low comes in the form of one to nine 14.

So we're looking for one to nine tens to one to nine big figure.

And if we get some expansion, 1 0 8 AB okay.

So that's, uh, this is what I would have liked to have seen, um, set up yesterday.

I would've been a lot more inclined to do it then without having all of the, uh,

The difficulties with maximum coverage on a high-impact news like we did today,

pound dollar or cable as we call it.

Um, we're still like these bus stops up here and until we get

through this void, if we, if we close in this void and go below this

low here, I'm going to change my.

A view on cable and we'll probably be looking to make a run down into

this bullish, shorter block and maybe potentially take out the lows here.

So the range is between, uh, the low of 1 21 39 and the high coming in at 1 23 29.

So that's our current dealing range.

So if we lose the low here, we're going to look for a retest retest

rabbit into this bullish or block or down calibrate for that.

And because I have such yeah.

I just don't know for certain, with a great deal of conviction, how to trade

the British pound U S dollar in here.

And I have no shame in telling you that.

And if I don't have that, um, then there's no trade cause you just don't simply guess

there's no guessing involved, but we did get down into the void in here, had my

slow reaction after tweeting that chart this morning, but nothing on the upside

that would've got me terribly excited.

So again, um, plump interest I have right now simply to buy

stopped above these equal highs.

And we've been noting them as well over here.

So there's a lot of layers.

And in engineering for a 1 23 30 as resistance.

And I just don't trust that.

Okay.

Um, obviously I can look at this later on and it could be down below

one twenties later on, you know, we turn it on and I can say, well,

they still kept that level in tack.

And sometimes, you know, that's going to happen, but the way I see

it, um, if it goes down lower, it would be real nice to see them gun.

These.

Okay.

Um, which is also real quick.

Let's go back to the Euro dollar.

Um, you can see those buy stops over here.

Resting around that, uh, 1 10 25 to 1 10 30 level.

Um, that's why I was saying 1 10 35, but also if it was just going to be

an expansion of other stops, um, I would like to see 1 10 40 relative to

the four hour chart pair of shorter block as I interrogated earlier.

But price went up there.

I swept it by stops right above these equal highs.

Rent below the one at 9 53 level from the cell stops right below here.

And you can see it's done that rather handsomely.

Um, I think that could be what we see for cable.

If we're going to go lower, I would really be excited about going 1

23 30 to 1 23, even, uh, 45 to 50, and then see some rejection.

And then I would be more inclined to take a short there dollar CAD.

Uh, we saw obviously yesterday almost came down.

Cleared up the low in here.

Um, we saw rejection and price still screaming higher.

Um, that same level that's been noted at 1 30, 1 35 level, which is over here.

Um, that's also, um, if you'd look at that level, all we're doing is we're using

the opening price on the week and also.

Kayla right here.

Cause that's a breaker.

So just draw that out in time and route it to your near five levels or zero levels.

And you would come up with that level as well.

I saw that question on Twitter, uh, yesterday in regards to why would

this Sunday candle be significant?

It's not the fact.

It's a Sunday candle.

Let's do opening.

And we also we've mentioned the breaker down in here.

So we always gotta use institutional pricing, which is the zero levels and the

five levels inside of the candles that we specifically focus on, uh, that 1, 1

30, 1 35 level in there that's important because it's relative to the daily chart.

And because we transposed those daily timeframe levels onto our lower

timeframe, let 1 30, 1 35 levels here, price comes down once it going above it

and find some support here in rallies.

Okay.

So we have the basis of a institutional level on daily chart, 1 30, 1 35.

The fact that we did run away from that level.

So you go right down to that level when you find the down candle.

Okay.

Because we have immediate back-to-back down candles.

We had to blend those together.

Some target there's two candles together to give us one down candle

or a 30 minute odor block bullish.

Draw that out in time.

You can see price hits day.

Responds and expands on the upside.

Now it's pressed up three times in here.

It'll be interesting to see if we get through a 1 32 31.

So 1 30, 2 30 to 1 30, 2 35.

Uh, again, it's the body of this last op candle.

Uh, we could see the middle of that candle.

1 30, 2 55.

That should, um, Be in indicative of bullishness.

If we get through 1 30, 2 35, 1 30, 2 60, uh, we're going to

probably resume our uptrend on CAD.

And if that's the case, let's maximize that chart.

Cause we're hearing closes up for today.

Uh, we would be looking for a move much more significant than, uh, this

little, uh, breach of these old levels.

Here.

We might see a continuation on the upside, maybe reaching into the a 1 35.

To even one 30 fives the clear out some, some buys stops about

hearing closing some of that range.

So that's what we're looking at for right now.

And I'm going to wish you a good afternoon and I will get back with

you again tomorrow morning for live commentary and a live session.

I'll send you the link on the forum tonight.

I'll tweet it, let you know it's online.

So that way you can register and we will be meeting tomorrow morning at 7:00 AM.

Okay.

Until then I wish you good luck and good.