Original subtitles

Good afternoon folks.

This is ICT with a presentation on September 12th, 2016, the

economic calendar for tomorrow.

Um, I appreciate your patience today.

Allow me to take care of what I take care of.

Um, uh, when we go to Forex factory.com, this is the one

I use for an economic county.

And you don't have to use this one, but I just simply like this one, um, over

all the other ones I've used in the past, over here, where it says filter.

Um, I hadn't mentioned this before, so I'm going to take a

little bit of time today to do it.

Uh, any currency that you're not interested in following you just put

a toggle on that and it'll erase them.

Uh, I'm going to keep tabs on these two.

And the Euro and the British pound against obviously the dollar.

Um, I'm not interested in anything low impact, non economic, and

I do definitely want to have medium impact and high impact.

Okay.

Um, anything down here?

Keep that on.

And by doing that, it reduces your focus down to simply that now, which

is nice is we have a four 30 in the morning liquidity potential run.

Okay.

And the British pound.

And obviously the times here are relative to Eastern time

where I'm located in the states.

And then we have a 5:00 AM ECB president Draghi speaks.

Okay.

So we might have a little bit of opportunity.

Um, and pound ahead of the five o'clock, um, discussion by this goober,

but we'll see if there's any setups.

Uh, right now, if you look at what the market's doing, um, it's

already pricing in something and I was away from the chart today, but

the pound had a nice run up today.

And, uh, so did, uh, the Euro, uh, not as much as the pound, but, um,

w we'll get into that now, but.

Focused on the fact that we've had a really nice setup for volatility, I

guess, to take a look at the markets.

Okay.

We have the dollar index.

Um, if you look at where we're at relative to the current range, um, we have.

The low to high in here, and we're sitting right at equilibrium halfway point.

And when we're in these tight consolidations like this, it

makes it rather difficult to be, um, a directional trader.

So you have to trade in intraday volatility.

So you have to look for small setups, take your moves, take

your profits and move back to the sidelines because where we're at.

Um, I'm just going to be blunt with you.

I think the market's going to stay like this until we figure out what

we're going to be doing relative to September's interest rate hike.

So if we get a rate hike then obviously, or if we don't regardless,

it'll give us a movement out of this range, we go to a four hour chart.

Okay.

You see, we did come off recent lows down here.

I like the fact that we swept those.

We came all the way back up and fill in the liquidity void

right in here, all this range.

That's the void that closed that in immediately.

Uh, today we came down into this bullet shorter block and it was

nice to see that response there.

Uh, so the only on a downside, we've only had.

The void close in here, but for long side of the market, we've had a stop run.

Here we come back down into the Bush or block, which is

just down candle right in here,

there.

Okay.

And we had some willingness to want to rally away from that.

Um, we still have a nice layer of stops, right?

Hello, Bella, read above here.

We've lost in the past and we have them as well here.

So we have, uh, two different liquidity pools of interest

and let's take this fib off

and actually I'll show you.

We're actually in a smaller range, still in equilibrium for it as well.

Um, we have that range here and here.

Emigrated equilibrium as well for that smaller range.

So we're in a real tight consolidation.

So what we're going to be leading for is expansion.

Okay.

It has to move out here.

In other words, they can't, can't just stay in here and we're going

to try to pick the direction.

That's not how you do consolidation trades.

You wait for the market to run.

Once it runs, it'll give you a new void or it's going to run to a liquidity pool.

One of the two.

It's going to give us a trade scenario, but you try your hardest to try to

keep from trying to pick out the direction where it's going to go.

I don't care what the direction is going to be.

I'm not one sided.

I don't have it where it has to be this side of the market long,

or the side of the market short.

I just want it to move away from equilibrium.

Once it moves away from equilibrium, then it'll give me something to trade on.

But until then we had to sit on our hands and just simply waiting and.

Let the market give us an opportunity.

Don't try to force what we think should happen in the marketplace

on, on price, into an alley chart.

We'll see that void close out.

Real handsomely, um, uh, candles in here.

It's just the bear's order block right there and went right up to it.

Hit it perfectly high, 90, 95, 57 to low on this candle.

95 57 perfectly hit immediate response down into small areas.

Liquidity read in here down can low rate for that move.

You can fine tune this.

This is on a daily chart.

Now we're gonna drop it down into.

or shorter block here relative to the alley chart.

And we have a nice response there.

I don't think, unless it just completely wipes it out on a news event.

I don't think we're going to come.

Down here for these lows to be cleaned out we're from where we're at.

I think if it does, it'll want to go higher and clear

out this high one more time.

And if it does that and rejects, that means they've taken out the stops.

And obviously if it takes up the stuff that's going to want

to go the other way, strongly.

I certainly see, and that's like, we see here, the lows or

cleaned out and immediately ran up here and they closed the void.

Um, so we would be looking for a move back up of this high.

Okay.

And we would look for some form of bullishness to get back

along, to make a run for that.

Or if we come up, back up above.

Short-term high.

And we break down below that this low is intact.

If we break down below that we would look for a, um, resuming

of price to get back up to this.

Okay.

So because we're looking at these highs, heres I'm trying to this high here in

this high here, price came up and rallied.

If we lose all this market structure and ultimately this low after it rallies as

the rally from here a little bit more, it breaks that low and we trade down and come

back up into this area right in here, that would be a sell around 94, 5 94 90, um,

could be as low as 94, 80 and formation.

And then we would look for a run down below the lows here.

Uh, but right now, Probable scenarios.

Okay.

Nothing says it has to happen that way.

Does it's things we're going to watch and see if it come to fruition.

But, uh, right now as it is, we sit on our hands and wait, it's not in

an area where we can do anything.

The ideal, uh, I'm sorry.

I would a high degree of probability.

All right.

For the Euro, uh, much in the same vein we are in equilibrium

market is still winding up tightly.

Uh, and it's all based on what we're going to see in terms of the interest

rates are already at equilibrium.

Again.

Um,

It could go either way.

I could give you the argument that it wants to go higher to clear these

stops and these stops about here.

And then we have another liquidity pool here that could reach down

rather easily and clear that out.

If it comes down just to this order block here and give a response.

So again, these are all scenarios that could potentially.

Um, could potentially rather, um, be a setup for this week.

I don't think that we're going to see, um, anything that we can trade while

we're in consolidation like this, until we expand higher or lower, it has to

move from these levels to give us a setup again, this is the hardest part about.

It's the hardest thing.

And your development is learning to sit on your hands and wait.

I know it feels like you need to be doing something every day, but there's all

kinds of things we can be studying and practicing and be able to teach on while

the market's waiting for its next leg.

Um, we're not waiting a very long, many times, but we are going

to wait for the smart money to reveal or their hand looking at a.

One hour chart, we'll drop down square before our, uh, we did have the

market clear list level, uh, stops.

And this is rather clean.

I don't like the way that looks there and I really liked this.

I like this on a fiber.

I like the fact that we came up rejected here.

I liked the fact that we clean these highs out here.

Okay.

And show the Williams.

I want to drop down.

Um, if we can continue with that, we would be looking for, um, run down to 1 11 72.

60.

And if it runs further, we would look for 1140, which would

clear these equal loads out.

And if it runs there that we're to probably see reasoning mean of the

down move to take us below 1 11 20.

Um, but again, we're in consolidation.

We're trying not to know what the next leg is.

We're waiting for that to be given to us.

And then we'll just wait and trade a quarterly based on and liquidity

pool or a block or Fairview.

Cable.

Okay.

I had a really nice reaction today called lot traders about surprise

market mood below the short-term low and it quickly rally up.

Uh, we cleared this level of stops and relative to it's current range.

This one looks like, and this is the reason why I said I

don't want to sell this one.

I just think it's got a lot of reason to go higher and I don't want to.

Be caught up in something that even though it looks strongly technical to be short,

I'm going to be very leery of doing it.

Um, I would have more emphasis placed on the long side on

this currency specifically because like I said, the Brexit.

So, uh, and immediately I had a typo brought to my attention on one of

the, uh, uh, presentation slides.

Uh, for the, uh, teaching for this week, I'm gonna have to go

back in here and clean it up.

And I think the first one had some issues with the audio.

So I'm gonna try to clean that up as well, and, uh, correct that, uh, consolidation

high to say consolidation low.

Um, thank you for that, that, uh, the gentleman that brought to my attention,

the U S CAD, uh, this is the hub.

Uh, we were watching this all last week called just about everything that

had to do, but this up move from the turtle soup long retracement back into

a breaker rallied, further movement up.

We had this fair value gap.

Okay.

Which is exposure inside of a void.

Okay.

So a larger range.

Okay.

And it has a little small little pocket in there where there's

no tradings law, all wicks.

That's a fair value.

Okay.

Okay.

And we called for that to be filled.

It hit it perfectly here, consolidation again, and expansion cleared this level

of stock and then ultimately closed in this small little fair value gap as well.

Went right up into it.

The loneliness candle here, all of the exposure range between this high and

this low, which would look like this.

That's going to put it in terms of horizontal lines.

And it came right up here, filled that in, buys it candle perfectly respecting

it, and then quickly giving up the ghost.

Uh, once it broke down, he came back up, returned back to a bear shorter block,

which is the bottom of this candle here.

Let's take a look at that right there.

Uh, the low comes in at 1 30, 108.

Today's high, 1 31 0 8.

Perfect.

So, uh, we did take out some stops.

This is the real first run on liquidity.

That's being trailed behind the marketplace.

So again, to me, even though it looks like it's nice and weak here, um, it

may be just a run down to take out, um, short-term, uh, liquidity below

the lows or mellow words to shake out the, the weak voles, uh, the bowls

that want to have a very ultra short.

Uh, tight stock.

I like the fact that these buy stops are still kept in place.

Um, this is a reasonable expectation to have when you S when you clear out

a, um, a high, like we did here and rejected, we cleared out stops trail below

the lows of the marketplace and inside of a bullish or a block as well here.

So it'll be interesting to see if we get back above.

If we break the above the midpoint of this candle, that would indicate

that the institutional order flow is still on the bullish side.

And then we probably wouldn't.

Around 1 30, 1 50 to 1 30, 1 60.

And if we get legs there, we're looking for 1 30, 180 to 1 30, 2 big figures.

So couple that with the fact that we had the dollar showing this price action in

here, uh, if we can run off, it might give us the legs to go higher for us CAD to

take those objectives we just mentioned.

And.

Cable.

I just don't want to sell that even though I can see this real nice liquidity

void, I just don't want to go there.

And the Euro dollar, I really liked the fact that it's liquid avoidant here.

In other words, we have the exposure range between this low and this down candle.

So what we're looking for.

If we get weakness in the Euro dollar and strengthened, uh, the dollar, all

of this range, and here is what we're looking for to be closed in passing.

I watched the price come down, close, all that in down to 1 31.

I'm sorry, 1 11 70.

Where am I getting 1 31.

So that's why I'm looking at that.

So I'm slanted for a weaker Euro dollar.

And will probably see your dollar slide and pound either

remain consolidated or up.

And then obviously that would be weakness for a European, which

you're not going to look at here.

I'll look at that tomorrow.

And, uh, that's that, and right now it's just you, we sit and we wait,

we're in the middle of the range.

You have to wait until then I wish you good luck and good trading.