All language subtitles for 091216 EN

Good afternoon folks.

This is ICT with a presentation
on September 12th, 2016, the

economic calendar for tomorrow.

Um, I appreciate your patience today.

Allow me to take care
of what I take care of.

Um, uh, when we go to Forex
factory.com, this is the one

I use for an economic county.

And you don't have to use this one, but
I just simply like this one, um, over

all the other ones I've used in the
past, over here, where it says filter.

Um, I hadn't mentioned this
before, so I'm going to take a

little bit of time today to do it.

Uh, any currency that you're not
interested in following you just put

a toggle on that and it'll erase them.

Uh, I'm going to keep tabs on these two.

And the Euro and the British pound
against obviously the dollar.

Um, I'm not interested in anything
low impact, non economic, and

I do definitely want to have
medium impact and high impact.

Okay.

Um, anything down here?

Keep that on.

And by doing that, it reduces your
focus down to simply that now, which

is nice is we have a four 30 in the
morning liquidity potential run.

Okay.

And the British pound.

And obviously the times here
are relative to Eastern time

where I'm located in the states.

And then we have a 5:00 AM
ECB president Draghi speaks.

Okay.

So we might have a little
bit of opportunity.

Um, and pound ahead of the five
o'clock, um, discussion by this goober,

but we'll see if there's any setups.

Uh, right now, if you look at
what the market's doing, um, it's

already pricing in something and I
was away from the chart today, but

the pound had a nice run up today.

And, uh, so did, uh, the Euro, uh,
not as much as the pound, but, um,

w we'll get into that now, but.

Focused on the fact that we've had a
really nice setup for volatility, I

guess, to take a look at the markets.

Okay.

We have the dollar index.

Um, if you look at where we're at relative
to the current range, um, we have.

The low to high in here, and we're sitting
right at equilibrium halfway point.

And when we're in these tight
consolidations like this, it

makes it rather difficult to
be, um, a directional trader.

So you have to trade
in intraday volatility.

So you have to look for small
setups, take your moves, take

your profits and move back to the
sidelines because where we're at.

Um, I'm just going to be blunt with you.

I think the market's going to stay
like this until we figure out what

we're going to be doing relative
to September's interest rate hike.

So if we get a rate hike then
obviously, or if we don't regardless,

it'll give us a movement out of this
range, we go to a four hour chart.

Okay.

You see, we did come off
recent lows down here.

I like the fact that we swept those.

We came all the way back up
and fill in the liquidity void

right in here, all this range.

That's the void that
closed that in immediately.

Uh, today we came down into this
bullet shorter block and it was

nice to see that response there.

Uh, so the only on a
downside, we've only had.

The void close in here, but for long
side of the market, we've had a stop run.

Here we come back down into
the Bush or block, which is

just down candle right in here,

there.

Okay.

And we had some willingness to
want to rally away from that.

Um, we still have a nice
layer of stops, right?

Hello, Bella, read above here.

We've lost in the past and
we have them as well here.

So we have, uh, two different
liquidity pools of interest

and let's take this fib off

and actually I'll show you.

We're actually in a smaller range,
still in equilibrium for it as well.

Um, we have that range here and here.

Emigrated equilibrium as
well for that smaller range.

So we're in a real tight consolidation.

So what we're going to be
leading for is expansion.

Okay.

It has to move out here.

In other words, they can't, can't
just stay in here and we're going

to try to pick the direction.

That's not how you do
consolidation trades.

You wait for the market to run.

Once it runs, it'll give you a new void
or it's going to run to a liquidity pool.

One of the two.

It's going to give us a trade scenario,
but you try your hardest to try to

keep from trying to pick out the
direction where it's going to go.

I don't care what the
direction is going to be.

I'm not one sided.

I don't have it where it has to
be this side of the market long,

or the side of the market short.

I just want it to move
away from equilibrium.

Once it moves away from equilibrium,
then it'll give me something to trade on.

But until then we had to sit on our
hands and just simply waiting and.

Let the market give us an opportunity.

Don't try to force what we think
should happen in the marketplace

on, on price, into an alley chart.

We'll see that void close out.

Real handsomely, um, uh, candles in here.

It's just the bear's order block
right there and went right up to it.

Hit it perfectly high, 90,
95, 57 to low on this candle.

95 57 perfectly hit immediate
response down into small areas.

Liquidity read in here down
can low rate for that move.

You can fine tune this.

This is on a daily chart.

Now we're gonna drop it down into.

or shorter block here
relative to the alley chart.

And we have a nice response there.

I don't think, unless it just
completely wipes it out on a news event.

I don't think we're going to come.

Down here for these lows to be
cleaned out we're from where we're at.

I think if it does, it'll
want to go higher and clear

out this high one more time.

And if it does that and rejects, that
means they've taken out the stops.

And obviously if it takes up
the stuff that's going to want

to go the other way, strongly.

I certainly see, and that's
like, we see here, the lows or

cleaned out and immediately ran
up here and they closed the void.

Um, so we would be looking for
a move back up of this high.

Okay.

And we would look for some
form of bullishness to get back

along, to make a run for that.

Or if we come up, back up above.

Short-term high.

And we break down below
that this low is intact.

If we break down below that we
would look for a, um, resuming

of price to get back up to this.

Okay.

So because we're looking at these highs,
heres I'm trying to this high here in

this high here, price came up and rallied.

If we lose all this market structure and
ultimately this low after it rallies as

the rally from here a little bit more, it
breaks that low and we trade down and come

back up into this area right in here, that
would be a sell around 94, 5 94 90, um,

could be as low as 94, 80 and formation.

And then we would look for a
run down below the lows here.

Uh, but right now, Probable scenarios.

Okay.

Nothing says it has to happen that way.

Does it's things we're going to
watch and see if it come to fruition.

But, uh, right now as it is, we sit
on our hands and wait, it's not in

an area where we can do anything.

The ideal, uh, I'm sorry.

I would a high degree of probability.

All right.

For the Euro, uh, much in the
same vein we are in equilibrium

market is still winding up tightly.

Uh, and it's all based on what we're
going to see in terms of the interest

rates are already at equilibrium.

Again.

Um,

It could go either way.

I could give you the argument that
it wants to go higher to clear these

stops and these stops about here.

And then we have another liquidity
pool here that could reach down

rather easily and clear that out.

If it comes down just to this order
block here and give a response.

So again, these are all
scenarios that could potentially.

Um, could potentially rather,
um, be a setup for this week.

I don't think that we're going to see,
um, anything that we can trade while

we're in consolidation like this, until
we expand higher or lower, it has to

move from these levels to give us a setup
again, this is the hardest part about.

It's the hardest thing.

And your development is learning
to sit on your hands and wait.

I know it feels like you need to be doing
something every day, but there's all

kinds of things we can be studying and
practicing and be able to teach on while

the market's waiting for its next leg.

Um, we're not waiting a very
long, many times, but we are going

to wait for the smart money to
reveal or their hand looking at a.

One hour chart, we'll drop down
square before our, uh, we did have the

market clear list level, uh, stops.

And this is rather clean.

I don't like the way that looks
there and I really liked this.

I like this on a fiber.

I like the fact that we
came up rejected here.

I liked the fact that we
clean these highs out here.

Okay.

And show the Williams.

I want to drop down.

Um, if we can continue with that, we would
be looking for, um, run down to 1 11 72.

60.

And if it runs further, we
would look for 1140, which would

clear these equal loads out.

And if it runs there that we're to
probably see reasoning mean of the

down move to take us below 1 11 20.

Um, but again, we're in consolidation.

We're trying not to know
what the next leg is.

We're waiting for that to be given to us.

And then we'll just wait and trade
a quarterly based on and liquidity

pool or a block or Fairview.

Cable.

Okay.

I had a really nice reaction today
called lot traders about surprise

market mood below the short-term
low and it quickly rally up.

Uh, we cleared this level of stops
and relative to it's current range.

This one looks like, and this
is the reason why I said I

don't want to sell this one.

I just think it's got a lot of reason
to go higher and I don't want to.

Be caught up in something that even though
it looks strongly technical to be short,

I'm going to be very leery of doing it.

Um, I would have more emphasis
placed on the long side on

this currency specifically
because like I said, the Brexit.

So, uh, and immediately I had a typo
brought to my attention on one of

the, uh, uh, presentation slides.

Uh, for the, uh, teaching for
this week, I'm gonna have to go

back in here and clean it up.

And I think the first one had
some issues with the audio.

So I'm gonna try to clean that up as well,
and, uh, correct that, uh, consolidation

high to say consolidation low.

Um, thank you for that, that, uh, the
gentleman that brought to my attention,

the U S CAD, uh, this is the hub.

Uh, we were watching this all last
week called just about everything that

had to do, but this up move from the
turtle soup long retracement back into

a breaker rallied, further movement up.

We had this fair value gap.

Okay.

Which is exposure inside of a void.

Okay.

So a larger range.

Okay.

And it has a little small little
pocket in there where there's

no tradings law, all wicks.

That's a fair value.

Okay.

Okay.

And we called for that to be filled.

It hit it perfectly here, consolidation
again, and expansion cleared this level

of stock and then ultimately closed in
this small little fair value gap as well.

Went right up into it.

The loneliness candle here, all of the
exposure range between this high and

this low, which would look like this.

That's going to put it in
terms of horizontal lines.

And it came right up here, filled that
in, buys it candle perfectly respecting

it, and then quickly giving up the ghost.

Uh, once it broke down, he came back up,
returned back to a bear shorter block,

which is the bottom of this candle here.

Let's take a look at that right there.

Uh, the low comes in at 1 30, 108.

Today's high, 1 31 0 8.

Perfect.

So, uh, we did take out some stops.

This is the real first run on liquidity.

That's being trailed
behind the marketplace.

So again, to me, even though it looks
like it's nice and weak here, um, it

may be just a run down to take out,
um, short-term, uh, liquidity below

the lows or mellow words to shake out
the, the weak voles, uh, the bowls

that want to have a very ultra short.

Uh, tight stock.

I like the fact that these buy
stops are still kept in place.

Um, this is a reasonable expectation
to have when you S when you clear out

a, um, a high, like we did here and
rejected, we cleared out stops trail below

the lows of the marketplace and inside
of a bullish or a block as well here.

So it'll be interesting to
see if we get back above.

If we break the above the midpoint
of this candle, that would indicate

that the institutional order flow
is still on the bullish side.

And then we probably wouldn't.

Around 1 30, 1 50 to 1 30, 1 60.

And if we get legs there, we're looking
for 1 30, 180 to 1 30, 2 big figures.

So couple that with the fact that we had
the dollar showing this price action in

here, uh, if we can run off, it might give
us the legs to go higher for us CAD to

take those objectives we just mentioned.

And.

Cable.

I just don't want to sell that even
though I can see this real nice liquidity

void, I just don't want to go there.

And the Euro dollar, I really liked the
fact that it's liquid avoidant here.

In other words, we have the exposure range
between this low and this down candle.

So what we're looking for.

If we get weakness in the Euro dollar
and strengthened, uh, the dollar, all

of this range, and here is what we're
looking for to be closed in passing.

I watched the price come down,
close, all that in down to 1 31.

I'm sorry, 1 11 70.

Where am I getting 1 31.

So that's why I'm looking at that.

So I'm slanted for a weaker Euro dollar.

And will probably see your
dollar slide and pound either

remain consolidated or up.

And then obviously that would be
weakness for a European, which

you're not going to look at here.

I'll look at that tomorrow.

And, uh, that's that, and right now
it's just you, we sit and we wait,

we're in the middle of the range.

You have to wait until then I wish
you good luck and good trading.