Original subtitles

Welcome back folks.

First analysis video for 2018.

Appreciate you guys giving me a break.

So we're looking at the monthly chart of the dollar index.

Okay.

There's a couple of levels.

I want to keep in mind as we go forward into 2018.

Obviously we've had a really nice rejection at the 1 0 3 level.

Just falling short of that 1 0 4.

Get this to pop up.

Yeah, it just fell short.

Uh, 19 pips short of, uh, the one who four level I call called back in 2014.

Well, it's a little time, but we're looking at the monthly chart

and we have come back below these lows and we're really retesting

these old highs back here.

And we like to focus on the bodies of the candles.

And then obviously, because price is fractal, we're looking at the.

Bodies in the same way.

We look at a lower timeframe, not so much the WIC.

Okay.

You can see that the market has really had no respect whatsoever for the wicks here.

Uh, we are now treating inside this one relative to the

current price action right now.

Uh, but I do suspect that we'll probably want to come down

maybe a little bit deeper into.

This candle here, this last up closed candle.

That may be a reason to dip into a little bit more, but it would have to first

show a willingness to go below 88, 10.

I know I'm showing 88 0 5 here, but 88 tens the level I'm looking for.

And then 88 big figure anything below 88, big figure, Texas in two, potentially.

Into 86, 60, 86, 80 in that area here where we'll be referring

back to this old swing high.

Okay.

And that's just a long-term macro view.

And obviously if we start trading to these levels and I can come back into these

and give a little bit more refinement, but this is what I'm looking at from

a hard timeframe, monthly standpoint.

And we'll look at the respect of level.

Look at a weekly perspective on both Euro and cable.

It'll just be a mirror image of what we're anticipating.

On their monthly charts.

All right.

So let's drop into a weekly.

Okay.

And scrunches up a little bit superfluous.

All right.

So now we're looking at Al the market has really come down below this low,

and there's really only a small little inefficiency in the scope of the weekly.

And that takes us back up to this level here.

So.

Basically take this level here, drop it there.

So we have a little bit of an inefficiency here only sell side delivery.

So what we'll be looking for potentially if we get any kind of bullishness

at all, and I'm not saying that we will, because it's Sunday still.

So I'd like to see what's happening on Monday.

But if we do trade up into this on Monday or Tuesday, that may be a

catalyst for another round of selling.

Think of taking it down into the 88, 10 level.

Okay.

Uh, so if we're bearish this week 88, 10.

88 big figure is my objective for the dollar index.

That'd be a large range for the weekly, and that is right on top of

this last week's small compression.

Okay.

So we have a real big, nice slide here, cascading lower on the heel, you know,

on the heels of these large ranges we got now last week, a very small range.

Now I know that WIC from high to low.

Most people are gonna be looking at that.

Um, want to be more focused on this small little range?

Okay.

That's what we're looking at, the bodies of the candles.

So we may see another compression.

Okay.

Where the range contraction takes place again in here.

So if we get very tight, narrow range, uh, price action, all that's

going to do is create a much larger probability for the next week.

Okay.

Or not specifically this week, but next week we may get that

large range for the week.

And that'll set up really dynamic moves for day trading and

short-term trading as it is now.

I'd like to see.

If we get back up to that level and also look at the low on that

and get a better feel for it.

It is 90 11.

So we're looking for like 90, 20 to 90 big figure on the upside.

That should be an area of short-term resistance.

You need to start looking for shorter from cell patterns in that area.

And we could do some exercises on that, but right now it's still

to me, bearish on the dollar.

If we get above this inefficiency right here in the Lords, the inefficiency is

between from this low here on this case.

Great there and the high on this one.

Okay.

So 89 65.

So a little bit of an efficiency there only sell side delivery.

So we could see price come up, come back up and rebalance that.

And then maybe taking a little dive lower again, reaching for that ADA 10

80, a big figure, anything below 88.

Again, we're going to be looking for 80 sevens primarily, and

then getting down to 86 60.

And that's a very long-term objective and it may not.

Be relatively quick getting there because we've already seen a large move

already take place on the dollar index.

So we could potentially see a lot more choppiness now because it's been

a large price swing from this high going lower and we'll be looking for

reasons to now it's a traders market, basically, where this has been altered.

Now we have to look for key levels to work within in terms of support resistance.

And we're gonna be looking primarily for this inefficiency to fill for

the highest probable condition.

Now, if we trade lower, okay.

If we start off on Monday and setting up into Tuesdays London, open, we

trade down to this level first, then that may be a catalyst for it to trade

here first, and then maybe come back up here for this being the weekly.

In other words, it could open trade lower, maybe hit that 88,

28, 8, 10 88 big figure that may be Tuesday or Wednesdays long and open.

Okay.

Catalysts for a long only to come back up here to refill in this inefficiency.

And that may be the weekly range.

Okay.

And it may set up a cell signal may not, but right now I said, I'm waiting

for it's higher probability for price.

I'm going to trade up to this level.

And then trade lower.

That's the more probable scenario for me, I'm looking for that one.

Okay.

I favor that one, but if we trade right away going lower and we hit

the ADA 20, 80, 10 or 88 big figure and yes, it's three levels, but

it's the time it hits that level.

So in other words, if it trades to say 80, 20, and it's before Asia's open, okay.

Say it's like five o'clock New York time.

It's not going to be a level.

It's going to be important to me.

If it hits it around.

Two o'clock in the morning long and open, then I'm much more interested

going to expect some reaction there, but as it is, that's what I'm looking for.

Dollar index.

I want to see a move up, close the inefficiency in, and then see if I

get some SMT diversions, something to give me some kind of, uh, a flesh

eating out, or a framework of a potential sell in a dollar contrasted

with a potential long in Europe.

Uh, cable at the same time, it hits this level here.

Again, as a reminder, it's far less likely, uh, in terms of

high probability, not likely.

Okay.

If we trade lower first and leave this inefficiency there, I would

rather allow it to go up here.

Everyone else is going to think the lowest.

And that's exactly what I would rather see.

That's what makes it more probability.

Okay.

So the ones that are asking, why am I looking at that in the view

of it becoming more probable than if we trade lower first?

Um, obviously you're probably thinking if the trades lower,

why not just keep on going lower?

It may do that.

But from the standpoint of looking for a high probability.

Which is what I'm bearish on the dollar index.

I would rather see a trade back up to this level first.

And then we closing this inefficiency, anything above that.

Okay.

Puts us back into this low here at 91.

I'd rather see it, not trade back to that at this point.

Um, in other words, I don't want to see it from here.

Trade up to 91 because then we could stay in that range for a while.

And I don't like that in that range being the low here to

91, don't want to see that.

Hi, it's probable scenario would be again, going back, fill this

inefficiency and then go lower.

I will look for a day trade.

Okay.

Not short-term trade.

If we trade lower first, then my trades will be on the scope of day trading.

Only if we trade up to this level.

Then I will be looking for one shot, one kill bear Stahler long year or cable.

Okay.

So that's our framework for this week and I'll drop down into a daily

chart and get a little bit, or Casey.

We can see that, uh, same, more or less inefficiency on the daily chart.

That's really designed in this area here.

So I'll take this level and refine it from what we saw on

the weekly and put it right here.

So now all we're doing is refining our fractures.

From a monthly, the weekly now daily.

So we now have our inefficiency level rate at this candle's

low and it comes in at 89 97.

We're just going to basically call it 90 big figure, uh, because it could

obviously whip through that a little bit, but anywhere between 89 95.

2 8 90 fig figure.

I'd rather see it.

Do that.

Now notice now what we see here a little bit more detail.

We have this low here and almost equal lows here.

So if we rally up, see what's happening, we're getting that dynamic.

Um, Propulsion, if you will.

Okay.

Where all the folks that are out there looking for the dollars low,

they're going to get excited and think this is that double bottom.

Okay.

All the retail trade is going to be thinking all of this is where it's at.

You know, it's not going to get long dollar and let's get on there and go

along and we can sell your dollar.

We could sell cable.

I'm not saying that's what I'm doing, but I'm just saying that's.

So the sentiment idea, that's going to more or less form notice.

Also, if we look at this.

Okay.

We have a candle high, a lower high to the left and a lower candle high to the right.

This is our swing low.

We take our fib, drop it on here for range.

This is the highest body open or close.

So we're dragging it from here down to the lowest open body

or close, which is right there.

Okay.

So it's on these candles here specifically.

I'm looking at this down closed candle and this up-close candle.

I'm sorry, down close candles, uh, opening price.

So that's the framework I'm using for the range.

Okay.

And now notice what happens if we get back up to this level here, which

closes this inefficiency up, it goes right inside of an optimal trade entry.

Notice that, let me zoom in a little bit, so you guys can see it.

Okay.

So here's that range?

This candles.

And this is a swing high.

So we look for the highest opener close in that, drag it down.

Okay.

Everyone else is gonna be looking at this back here for their fifth, not me.

Okay.

So this is what we're looking for from this range high to this range low,

and here is our 62% treatment level.

And just below the 70.5, our sweet spot that's where inefficiency closes in it.

So we're looking at a really nice scenario potentially around that 90.

A big figure.

So if we trade up to that, that puts me on sell alert for dollar, which

is a long bias for your or dollar.

I'm sorry.

You're a dollar in British pound dollar and it's a segway

railroad over to the Eurodollar.

Okay.

And this particular piece.

If we get that selling scenario in the dollar index.

Okay.

I'd rather see it spike up in the dollar and not see any drop down on Euro.

That would be a really good catalyst because then we're seeing real clear

manipulation on the standpoint that the dollar is going up to that 90 big figure.

And if you're doesn't follow suit by dropping lower and breaking down in its

market structure, then we know we've got a tiger by the tail most likely.

So then I'll be looking for price to get up into this bearish order.

And that looks like this.

We have this level here.

Okay.

So we have this candles opening at 1 27 41.

So it's, we're below we're coming up to it.

So we're looking at 26, 40 or 26 20.

I like 26 40, because if you look at the open on this candle

here and the close on here, we're basically in the middle of that.

So we're an equilibrium or the main threshold of these two up-close candles.

Okay.

Together would be, if we could make two weekly, uh, bars become a

timeframe, this will be one bearish order block one big up-close candle.

If we kind of like blended those two together.

So we look at the total range when we have consecutive candles like this.

So that's about the mid point of that.

And that comes in at around 26 36.

Again, we're below it coming up to that level.

So 26 35 is the level I'd be looking for 26 30.

So that's what we're looking for as an upside objective on the Euro

dollar from a weekly standpoint.

Now we could, if everything unfolds in completely opposite terms, these

are the things I'm waiting for.

The, and I'm anticipating these types of setups.

These are not trades.

I'm looking for the framework to build the ideas around the scenarios that would

lead to price trading to these levels.

But say we get a nice pop-up in a dollar and maybe it goes

through to 90 big figure.

Okay.

Uh, then we would probably see the Euro dollar come back down, and then we have

a small little inefficiency rate in here.

Let me take the divide yourself and zoom in a little bit.

We have a very small inefficiency rate in here.

Only buy-side delivery in the framework is the low here at

1 21 65 and the candles high.

At 2089.

So again, we're above it.

So we would go to 2090.

So 2090 is the level.

And I'll go over here.

Look, we have, we have old high back here.

So now it's not just old highs and old lows, classic support resistance.

That makes that level significant because obviously if it was so

easy, support, resistance would be the way to go to the pearly gates.

It's not the case.

This highest is significant and will offer.

Not because it's an old Hein and we traded through it, but because we have an

inefficiency here, so the algorithm will look to be real, more or less allowing

buy orders to start stacking up in here.

If we see a breakdown in Euro and strengthened a dollar that goes

beyond the 90 big figure, this would be the area I'd be looking for that

to be capitalized for new buying.

Okay.

So if we have that, okay, now we're going to add our fed for range.

So we're going to use this swing low here and I'll come back to

another scenario in regards to what we saw on the dollar index.

This is basically opposite right now.

We have this candle rate there.

The one that we're forming right now for this week, this is our range.

Notice what's happening in here.

We have this level, which is the old high, and we have equilibrium.

So we have basically price coming back down to midway point of it.

And if it's our range, which is our low, and if it's high stays intact and we trade

lower rate from the jump from this week, we could come back down to the mid point

or equilibrium with this total range.

And that's the same thing or significance of you would expect

with a bullish or bearish order.

Okay, because we're trading back to the bar more or less like the fair value.

Okay.

The middle of the range.

We're not oversold, but we're in a level where that would be enough

to constitute some new mine.

It's significant because we have this inefficiency in here at the same point

and it happens to be an old high.

So that in itself has enough.

I personally don't see that in here yet.

I think that.

Maybe the Euro might have a little bit of a retracement lower, but I

had to come all the way down here.

I think that would more or less spooked the bowls.

And while that may be good.

In other instances, I don't think it's necessary from where we're at.

I think everything's already in place and anyone that's not long now, isn't

really probably going to get a chance to get at a real cheap price like this.

They're going to keep it stretched out and make a run into that.

Uh, 26 35, where.

Okay, so let's drop into a daily and we'll see what we see there.

Okay.

All right.

And now from a daily standpoint, we have that old high from a weekly

standpoint here, and I'm just using the equilibrium price point to remember

where it's at and I'll shrink it out.

So you guys can see.

It's right here.

Okay.

I want you to take a look at this area right in here saying scenario that we saw

here with the weekly high price, come back down to equilibrium, which is that level.

Hit that level and closing this inefficiency, that same element.

Okay.

If price action can be applied with this high acting the same way this high is

in our weekly example, we have a small inefficiency here because price came down.

Didn't come all way back down to this candle's high.

So the only the upside movement here is what we see in terms of orders.

So only buyers have been, uh, in the marketplace here.

The market didn't really offer anything in terms of selling same thing here,

market trades higher didn't come back down right in here, stopped, fell short

of coming back down to this old high.

So between this candle's high all the way through this here, price King's

down, but did not come back to this price point or this price point.

So there's an inefficiency rating.

This may be the downside catalyst.

I think personally, this one would be less likely clique for me.

I mean, I would only be interested in it if we traded down to here.

If we lose this.

No, I don't.

I don't look at this as a bullish shoulder block right now.

Like I don't see it coming down to that level here.

And that's a bite.

I don't like that idea.

Okay.

I think that if it's going to be a buy, it's going to

be a buy rate on this candle.

This candle is high at 1 23, 15 or 1 23 10.

Okay.

Uh, reason why I'm going with 2310 is if you look at the clothes, it's 1 23 0 8.

And to come down to that level, we'd only need to go to 2310.

Not that 23.

It could spike the 20 through eight minutes.

We're only talking about two pips, but that inefficiency rate there only by side.

Okay.

And you'll learn more about this as, as you go along, if you're

new, but price trades down.

We trade through this little pocket.

In other words, look at it like this.

This is what I'm outlining.

Okay.

In terms of example, if we get a drop down into that little

area here, price drops to that.

That would be as high list to maybe run the equal highs.

If they're left, like they are here.

This is basically the same thing we had on the daily for the dollar index.

Let's go back real quick.

You see that equal, low here.

Okay.

It make a little bit equal lows.

If we run up to here, remember we're looking for potential sell off.

Well, we're going to have the same thing just in the opposite way.

If you see it drop down, as we would see the dollar index relative

to 90 the trades at that price point here, that will be a buy.

Now also, we're going to add into it the optimal trade entry for range.

So I'll just power this fib.

Okay.

And we're going to use, we put the price points.

Actually look at it cause I'll probably get confused.

And if we stay exactly as we are right now.

Okay.

So our range is this swing low, here's the candle higher, low to the

left hierarchy, low to the right.

We're using the lowest close or open, which is this one here, drag it up.

Look how beautiful that overlaps with optimal trade entry in here.

So we're looking at potentially the 79 7 traceable.

If we trade them, hit that no one else is going to look at that as a potential buy.

Okay.

We're not going to, they're not going to see it.

They're gonna see that's a double top and they're going to think

that's the resistance and it's going to sell and break, break lower.

It can.

I'm not going to say that it can't.

Cause obviously our textbook shows examples of that, but

they sell that narrative.

So I'm thinking if we drop down as we hit 90 on the dollar index.

Okay.

This would be a really nice bite.

Also look what we have here.

We have two equals.

So we have a lot of things stacking up around that 23 32, 23, 20 levels.

So 23, 20 23, 25 or 2330, depending upon what time of day it hits those levels.

Again, think of the ICT kill zones.

If we traded those levels, then it would be significant.

I mean, I anticipate those ideas unfolding and then running up through the now I do.

If we trade down to this level here and then go up.

Okay.

We could trade two to 26 35, 26, 40.

And here we have target two and a fifth language exactly at basically 26 70.

So if we spike through that level, I outlined on the higher timeframe weekly.

That's probably where it's going to reach for now.

I would be long gone before that.

Anyway, um, personally, I'd be at 26 big.

Okay.

Or just a couple of us below that and be content with that and not

really care too much about it.

Assuming I get along, down here.

Okay.

So that's what I'm looking for now.

If we run straight through.

Okay.

If we run straight through the equal highs.

Okay.

And we get immediate bearishness on the dollar index, hearsay

this roll through the equal lows.

Then I'm going to look at this level.

Okay.

The 20 S 25 75 to 25 80 in that area that may be a catalyst for a turtle soup.

Okay.

Or false break Loris, all these highs.

And it may not even go to this level right away.

And then come back down later on for this as a weekly objective

for the low or the weekly range.

Okay.

So that's a potential scenario.

That's why I'm saying I'd rather see the dollar index rally up.

And if it does drop down, this is what I want to see it drop to.

I don't want to see it drop down like below here, here, or use this as an

order block, or this is an owner block.

Okay.

I want that this level here specifically.

That's what I'm looking for.

Okay.

And that's the Euro, so let's go to cable, right?

So we have cable, uh, reaching back up into the VR.

Now I think it's just, I think it personally wants to erase that stain.

Um, in terms of the Brexit, I think they're going to probably want

to take it above this high here.

And if it really gets wildly bullish and bearish on the dollar,

Uh, we could be looking for a challenge on this for this year.

Okay.

I'm not saying it's going to happen next week.

Okay.

But I think this could be a real target if we start to get

really strong on a British pound.

And if we start looking at things from a higher time, uh, standpoint,

that would suggest further weakness on the dollar index, man, that

would be the one that's like that.

To me, this is like a mega trade.

Like I'm thinking if we get something that line up with a really good by going along,

that's what I want to see this year.

Like we have a full year ahead of us, you know, we're just now starting February.

So if we can get an opportunity to set up a really longterm position, Man alive.

That's like, that's the one, that's the one I want to the AME for now.

You guys are in UK.

You're probably thinking, man, please let that happen.

I'm getting a mentorship really cheap then.

But I think personally that may be the catalyst.

If we yeah.

Through the Brexit stuff.

Now we S first time we punched through this, there's going

to be a lot of take-back.

In other words, uh, profit taking, and it may be, you know, pretty

aggressive may take us right back down into this low here.

Okay.

In other words, say we run through, take out the high, they may sink it

eventually to about the same low here.

Okay.

Because this inefficiencies now been filled in.

Any drop down.

We only have a very small one in here, zoom in and I'll let you

see exactly what I'm referring to

right in here.

So we only have buy-side delivery there.

Okay.

So any drop down, I'd only want us to get trade down to this candle's high.

So basically 37, 50, 37 45, that level there.

Okay.

And let's look at that in terms of the range.

Okay.

Here's a swing low, low, higher, low to the left, higher, low to the

right, using the lowest open or close.

So we're defining our range right there.

Notice what's happening right at the sweet spot right there.

Okay.

So price drops down to that on weakness.

I'm sorry, on strength on the dollar trading up to 90, or maybe

going through it a little bit.

Uh, that would be an area I'd like to be really excited about.

Um, looking for the longs at 37 50, the 37 40 in that area.

That would be a real good scenario to look for potential long-term swing set up.

That's not a day trade because we're looking at a weekly chart.

That would be a really good candidate for swing to long-term position.

Maybe right now, it's just a framework.

We don't know what's going on as it hits there.

Um, and we have to take that in consideration when, and if it ever

trades there, you know, in an area.

Um, really rather expecting it to S to hold an, a small little

range with the dollar index is really P uh, you know, Peter out

at that 90 level and then fall off.

And if the dollar index does fall off of that 90 level and in the

weekly, and then there were daily, we could see this run through.

So if that's what we see, that would be a really good scenario for, you know, Yeah.

More than what you guys are expected to see from me as a recent months, because

I'm more or less sticking to scalping and intraday trading, but a lot of you folks

don't have that appetite or can't do it.

So this is a potential scenario that may unfold for a longer-term setup.

But again, I'd rather see it stay inside this range, small

little consolidation and expand.

Okay, hold on to its consolidation.

That's a dollar index, retorts 90 level.

Don't see any dropdown and your dollar or cable that will show relative strength.

And then we get that sell off at 90 and the dollar index.

These two currencies can really extrapolate to the upside.

Okay.

So let's drop down into a daily.

Okay.

So now we have our daily chart and.

This range, obviously changes.

So we won't have it on here now that we've used it from a weekly standpoint.

So that on a daily, we have not much in terms of inefficiency that the speak

of, um, until we get down to here.

And again, I'd rather not see a trade down there.

Uh, we do have some stops right here, so that may be a catalyst.

Should we see any kind of weakness that would eventually lead to a long that

would clear out these equal height?

We can see a drop down, take up this low, gather up any of the cell stops that

will be residing on anybody that's long.

That's where all the stops at right now.

Okay.

So if you look at your cable all this week, monitor that 39, 80 level

39, 80 39 50, because remember 30 pips below that low that's about how

far the liquidity pool will rest.

So 39 80 is this low here, 30 pips below that 39 50.

That puts up.

Uh, right about there.

And that lines up with basically this, these equal highs.

Yeah.

39 45.

And it looks like it's a little bit higher than this one to see what that is.

Yeah.

So 39 50, that would be a good run on the cell stops if it does that,

we can reject now, should it do this?

Okay.

Say we take this low out on this pair.

We would be really studying and looking for SMT, the burdens.

In the framework of a, for instance, a higher high forming on the dollar

index, it should be expected with this low being taken out on cable.

If that dollar index does not post that respectively higher high,

when cable takes out this low, like say it trades down below this low

here, that's what we expect to see.

Lower low here should be seen with a higher high in dollar index.

If it does not happen.

At the same time that low is taken out on cable, then we have obviously

indications that we had manipulation on the part of dollar index rallying up

to 90, and we're safe all short of 90.

And this low gets taken out on cable.

At that moment.

We're all going to see an SMT divergence in the words, a lower,

low being formed and cable.

If the higher high doesn't form on the daily chart or.

Dollar index.

There's your opportunity to see a turtle soup long.

Okay.

So that's a pretty clear indication that they're going to come down and

just be taking out the cell stops to be accumulated and then run the highs here.

Okay.

And that would be again, the potential scenario for this week.

Now, if it trades down below this level, It may require trading into next week

before taking out this, this high.

So that may be one of those things you have to endure.

Um, if we do have a week, it does that same over to trade down below

this low here, we will be looking for not just this week, but going

into next week, uh, beyond this high.

Okay.

So it gives us a little bit, again, like a short term to swing trade center.

And that's going to be yet from the higher timeframe.

Um, we will monitor as we go along.

Um, if I have anything of any interest, I will send you a

tweet and post it to the forum.

You guys will have access to that.

Um, I'm not giving you my trades.

I'm giving you levels.

I'm looking at that may give us really good exercises.

Okay for price action.

So that's going to be it.

I wish you all a very pleasant week and good luck and trading,

and I will catch up with you throughout the week with any of them.