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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:03,830 --> 00:00:07,439 In modeling, assumptions on what you think will come 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,394 to for the inputs or metrics in the model. 3 00:00:10,394 --> 00:00:15,719 It can be assumptions about the circumstances that affect the metrics in the model. 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,565 To build your assumptions out, 5 00:00:17,565 --> 00:00:21,914 you start with information available to you based on historical data. 6 00:00:21,914 --> 00:00:25,679 For example, we can assume we will continue to gain 7 00:00:25,679 --> 00:00:29,894 market share at the same rate as we have for the last six months, 8 00:00:29,894 --> 00:00:33,689 or we assume that we will continue to see spikes and 9 00:00:33,689 --> 00:00:37,634 sales around holidays or on certain days of the week. 10 00:00:37,634 --> 00:00:39,570 As you make assumptions, 11 00:00:39,570 --> 00:00:44,115 pay attention to your forecasts about metrics you have less control over. 12 00:00:44,115 --> 00:00:47,570 Costs are usually harder to change drastically. 13 00:00:47,570 --> 00:00:52,070 So, when you make your assumptions about reducing the future costs, 14 00:00:52,070 --> 00:00:53,975 make sure you're being realistic. 15 00:00:53,975 --> 00:00:57,605 For instance, when estimating the cost of delivery, 16 00:00:57,604 --> 00:01:03,589 the cost of gas is typically harder to predict since gas prices are fairly volatile. 17 00:01:03,590 --> 00:01:08,950 So, in general, be careful about the assumptions you make about changes in costs, 18 00:01:08,950 --> 00:01:13,920 and check to see if those assumptions are reasonable and make sense. 1646

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