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And this video we're going to take a look at trends is going to explain how to trade different types
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of market trends or at least how you should be thinking.
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Now, the first thing you need to understand is there are three ways to describe the market as far as
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trends are concerned, and that is uptrend, meaning prices are rising over time.
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That is downtrend.
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And then there is such thing as a sideways market, sometimes called consolidation, where price simply
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goes back and forth, where buyers and sellers are consolidating the market, trying to figure out their
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next move.
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So uptrend self-explanatory, prices rising over time, downtrend self-explanatory and sideways.
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So those are the three states the market will be in.
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It can only be in one of those three states.
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Now, the biggest problem that most new traders have is that they do not know what time frame dictates
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what.
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Well, the reality is this, you know, you go out into the forms, you go out into the websites and
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they will talk about the uptrend, the downtrend.
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We're in an uptrend on the daily, but a downtrend on the weekly, downtrend on the four hour chart,
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but an uptrend on the 15 minute chart.
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Generally speaking, the best way to go about finding the trend is to actually start with a high timeframe,
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like daily or even weekly.
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Well, you know, notice how there's a lot less information on this chart and it's much easier to determine
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which direction the market is heading.
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Sellers are much more in control of light going on the weekly chart.
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Yes, we had a bounce, but at the end of the day.
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You can see it was slight compared to what we had been seeing.
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We started a hundred and fifty dollars, dropped to thirty five pounds to eighty four, eighty five
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ish, which sounded nice, but then rolled over again to continue this.
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So that is one way to look at it.
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And if you go back to the daily, it does tell you the same information and just with a lot more candlesticks.
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So pay attention to what prices is doing over the longer term.
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You.
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Are looking to trade with the longer term trend.
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Yes, you can make a few bucks here and there, you know, in coin here, certainly you could have made
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money buying.
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But the reality is you were fighting the overall trend.
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So what typically is advisable is find out with a longer time frame is and, you know, this is even
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more obvious over here.
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Yes.
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There were times where we did rise a little bit.
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But look, again, that much, but it lost that much to get there.
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So using a little common sense, you should be looking to sell.
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That doesn't necessarily mean you sell every time, but you have the weight of the market with you.
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And typically that means.
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It gives you a little bit more room for error.
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Now, how do we find defined trend lines again, higher timeframe, but one way you can look at it is
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trend lines so you can go over here to the line submenu and it's called trend line.
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And it is a line that shows where price was being supported or the buyers came in.
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And you can extend it out, so, for example, like coin this entire time was going to hire.
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This trend line shows where buyers are willing to get involved, and even when we did finally break
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down through it, notice how we broke through it and bounced back above it, broke through it again,
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and then came back and it had a reaction.
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You know, that is a trend line, that is the essence of defining the trend.
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There are other ways, but this is the simplest.
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Sometimes people like to trade channels and you can click on parallel channel.
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And you can draw, you know, the same trend line and then you drag it up and what you're doing is you're
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looking for.
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In this case, you can see where we hit that hit that actually broke above it, hit it again and came
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back.
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So there was a little bit of a parallel channel here.
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A typically it's not advisable to trade a parallel channel just simply because why are you trying to
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fight the overall trend when you see a move like this?
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Yes, it's overextended, but you have to know that there are people underneath that are willing to
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buy this.
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You can see that they never, ever broke down below the bottom of it, you know, and parallel channel
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can work in either direction.
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You know, you can have.
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Something like this.
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Drag it up, you know, you can make an argument for a little bit of a parallel channel.
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Maybe not all the way back there, but starting right around here again.
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Well, if you're going to use the parallel channel, you want to use this when you use the top, you
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don't want to use the bottom.
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The only time you use the bottom of the channel and a downtrend or the top of a channel and an uptrend
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is possibly taking profits and looking to sell either in the middle if you're aggressive or the top
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again.
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Again, though, parallel channels are pretty subjective.
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It's it's pretty rare.
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You get a perfect one.
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So but it is something that you will see on a lot of charts.
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Let's take a look at Bitcoin now, bitcoin has basically been falling since the peak in late 17.
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Now we've had a nice, huge rally in June of nineteen, but we have clearly fallen since then.
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So one of the easiest ways to look at this.
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It's just change it to like an area chart, you can see clearly we got a nice rally and then we continued
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the downtrend.
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So Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since the bubble peak right around 20000.
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Now, obviously, there have been time frames where our time period is, I should say, where things
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looked quite a bit better.
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And you certainly need to keep that in mind.
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But all things being equal, this is a pretty negative looking chart since the highs.
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So where have you made the most money?
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You've made the most money shorting.
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Unfortunately, a lot of retail traders make the mistake of thinking they need to catch every tick one
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way or the other.
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And that is a great way to lose your account because.
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It's very easy to look at this chart and I could show you an example right here, this is a Bitcoin
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weekly chart, very negative.
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And you look at the daily chart and you think, OK, well, it's a little better here.
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But what happens if you are somebody trying to scalp this chart in the 15 minute?
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You know, it looks very neutral, right?
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You think, OK, well, I could have made all this money, but if you were just patient enough and wait
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for the longer term trend, you know, it starts to look a lot different.
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And in fact, it looks as if it's trying to roll over here even as positive as it looked when I first
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pulled it up.
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Hourly chart.
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See see how negative this looks.
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This comes down to following longer term trends, I cannot stress that enough.
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Find out what the weekly trend is.
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You follow right along with it.
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Now, there are some ways to determine whether the trend is changing.
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And we'll look into that.
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We have a video coming up, a few down the road that talks about exponential moving average.
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Quite often that's used to determine trend.
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And you just want to follow the longer term.
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You want to wait.
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You know, if this is a downtrend, Bitcoin gets a little too expensive.
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Sellers come back in.
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You need to be patient.
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Cannot stress that enough.
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In the next video, we'll talk about support resistance levels.
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