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you
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[Music]
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you
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[Music]
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you
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in the early years the early decades of
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the 20th century Charles Ford was an
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eccentric American writer collected
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these reports and reports of other kinds
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of extraordinary anomalies natural or
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para natural and in a book published in
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1919 called the book of the Damned
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actually presented the first draft of
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what would be called the
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extra-terrestrial hypothesis theorizing
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that these events in these sites in
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these reports suggested the presence of
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otherworldly visitors when UFOs appeared
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and became an international sensation in
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the summer of 1947 and after that within
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days within days of Kenneth Arnold
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sighting On June 24th 1947
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speculation about Mars and visitors
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began to appear in the press almost all
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of it came from people who had read
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Charles Forte's book Charles Ford
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himself had died in 1932 but that was
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the people first thought these things
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could be from outer space otherwise
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people thought they were Russian
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experiments or secret aircraft
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experiments the Navy or there were all
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kinds of natural explanations some
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people thought they were an artifact of
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atomic testing and so on not very many
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people except the followers of Charles
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Ford we're thinking about spaceships
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from other planets but eventually by the
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mid 1950s the association of UFOs and
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extraterrestrial visitors was quite
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widespread that it wasn't automatic and
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natural it took a while in fact some of
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the first people who thought that UFOs
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could be extraterrestrial spacecraft
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were in the Air Force because people in
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the Air Force understood just how
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extraordinary the apparent technology of
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these things was they knew that there
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was no earthly power that could
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duplicate that technology they
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understood that in a way the general
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public probably didn't well no one truly
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knows exactly what was going on however
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we know that since t2 intelligence was
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doing aeronautical analysis from the
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German technology that they brought back
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world war two from the Russians that
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these objects obviously were not coming
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from Russia nor were they coming from
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the stash of older craft and and the
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Horton Brothers and things in Germany at
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the time so they could only come to one
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conclusion they're not ours they're not
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theirs they're from somewhere else and
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this kind of put a big Kobashi
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on the military careers many of the
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people at - - intelligence at Wright
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Field according to the story all the
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copies of the estimate the situation
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were destroyed but that couldn't have
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been true because as a matter of fact we
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have several people who said they saw
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one including captain ruppelt himself
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and the Pentagon's major person at the
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so called UFO desk in 1952 major dewey
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for an a they said that it was
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interplanetary and it is intelligently
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controlled in the interplanetary
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fournaye who saw the whole document said
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listen these guys were trying to shake
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the tree up in washington this was a
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preliminary thing and he said he didn't
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see that they he read the report he
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didn't see that they had the evidence to
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make this conclusion but they were it's
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an estimate of situation ten minutes
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after you write I worked in intelligence
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ten ten minutes after you write an
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estimate a situation it's it's it's
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stale
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the first major UFO / planet was a
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retired Marine Corps major named Donald
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Kehoe keel worked in the Pentagon he had
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once been an aide to Colonel Charles
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Lindbergh he had all kinds of contacts
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he was a popular writer he wrote stories
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adventure stories and pulp magazines
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usually with an aviation theme
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he also wrote a fiction stories about
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World War one flying and I read those
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things every time they came out ten
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cents of the copier pop magazines
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beautiful things
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so when true magazine which was a very
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popular men's magazine back years and
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years ago decided that it wanted to look
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into the question of what flying saucers
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were thought well Don key is a good guy
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he's got all these Pentagon contacts he
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knows about aviation knows a lot of
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pilots and many pilots reporting UFOs so
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he spent about eight months
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investigating the story for true
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magazine and the article that he
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published in January 1950 issue of true
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was titled the flying saucers are real
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and Donald Keough became probably the
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most important person in the history of
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UFOs that article which came at the very
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end of the year was sort of a
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psychological bomb for many people
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because it seemed to expose a hypocrisy
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in Air Force intelligence and not only
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that seemed to rather clearly point to
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the extra-terrestrial hypothesis when he
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was making the discussion with me
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knowing it and he was essentially
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telling me though that I was not doing
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the right things as a job and I told him
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that well in a way it's your fault
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because if you hadn't written those
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stores and got me so interested in the
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Air Force I wouldn't be here did they
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make you want to be a pilot or something
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yes it did
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Keele concluded from interviewing his
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airforce contacts interviewing pilots
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other credible witnesses that flying
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saucers were coming to earth probably
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from Mars that sounds rather ridiculous
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today but in those days even many
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reputable scientists thought it was at
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least possible that Mars Harvard in an
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intelligent civilization this was before
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the space probes and other advances told
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us that this was not possible but at the
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time it was considered a reasonable
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speculation that Mars was inhabited Kiel
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thought they were peaceful they were
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coming here with good intentions but
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they were afraid of us because we had
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sent our interceptor aircraft after them
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and so they were shy about establishing
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contact but they were watching us and
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they started watching us intensely
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because they began monitoring our atomic
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bombs this was a version of the
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extra-terrestrial hypothesis for the UFO
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age in 1957 he assumed directorship of
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an organization called the National
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Investigations Committee on aerial
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phenomena which brought together all
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kinds of people with solid professional
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and middle-class credentials to argue
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for interplanetary visitation to lobby
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for congressional hearings NICAP began
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as a hugely ambitious operation but the
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funding that Kiewit counted on did not
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materialize that's an interesting story
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in itself but in the late 1950s up until
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the later 1960s Kehoe and ICAP
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represented respectable Pro UFO opinion
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and this was at a time when although
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there was a great deal of skepticism the
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idea that UFOs could be real even
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extraterrestrial was not quite the
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bargeman alized idea that it would
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become in later years
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I think that scientists at the time
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despite the interest that was there in
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possible life in outer space and the
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knowledge of astronomy what was possible
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in terms of solar systems and chemistry
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in the galaxy scientists basically had
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literally no conception that aliens
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could potentially visit here you trust
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the big paradigm maker at the time and
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the big paradigm maker the time is
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Einstein and by gum you don't go against
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Einstein he told you this he put the
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10-pound finger on you you cannot go
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faster than the speed of light special
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relativity in the speed of light how
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much I think in considering the
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possibility of let's say ET visitation
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or even ourselves going out and
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exploring other stars in the future even
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though general relativity had come along
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and actually changed that picture most
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scientists with an instant response
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would think on special relativity terms
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and say well the velocity of light is
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the limitation you can't go fast the
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speed of light and therefore to conceive
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of us exploring stars or other people
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coming here it just bits it's it's too
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far they they just can't get from here
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to there we might explore our own solar
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system but that's probably as far as
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we're going to get but the truth of the
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matter is that in general relativity
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that's not not the case there are
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options there and in fact one of my
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favorite examples was when our Carl
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Sagan was putting together his book and
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movie contact he wanted to have some
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kind of more or less instant connection
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to faraway locales and so he approached
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Kip Thorne at Caltech who was a friend
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of his and says I want this to be as
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scientifically reasonable as possible
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and so Kip decide to look into the
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possibility out of general relativity
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that you could beat the speed of light
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well it turns out that in general
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relativity we can begin to talk about
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manipulating the space-time variables
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which was not the case in special to
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and in fact you could say make wormholes
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which is ought to be like Subway's
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through space or whatever so he came
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back and told Carl I know you you could
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you can incorporate that but he got
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sufficiently interested as as a
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theoretical physicist
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it began Tipton that he began having his
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graduate students look into these more
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bizarre outcomes predictions of general
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relativity and so in fact they came up
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with ways that you could beat the speed
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of light with the so called wormhole
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shortcuts through space-time but of
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course now that's become a very
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legitimate area of general relativity
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research and so there's a lot of work
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going on looking at wormholes so-called
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warp drive in the anime turned out that
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wormholes there's a possibility of
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engineering them and people are still
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looking at that at least the principles
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of it warp drive is as far as we can see
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is going to be tough well here we are at
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the beginning of the 21st century and so
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we know they're going to be a
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twenty-fourth and a twenty eight and a
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30th century science and the scientists
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of those years are going to look back
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and see how primitive we were so really
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a scientist if he's up to it can't rule
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out anything
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I have several editions of an astronomy
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textbook out and I talked about this
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limit of speed of light and I put a
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footnote in there saying something like
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you know at least according to our
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current understanding of physics and I
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got a moderately irate letter from some
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scientists you know what this is an
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outrageous that you would put this in
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and I thought well how outrageous for
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him you know does he is he really on
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record that our physics of 1987 or
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whenever this was is the last word I
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mean it doesn't mean you should start
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assuming things can go fast in light but
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but you just shouldn't assume that we
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00:13:12,029 --> 00:13:15,689
know everything and as Arthur Clarke
278
00:13:13,860 --> 00:13:17,220
said you know any superior intelligence
279
00:13:15,690 --> 00:13:20,480
is going to look like magic to us
280
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anything that anything that violates our
281
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:25,440
crude understanding of the universe that
282
00:13:23,159 --> 00:13:28,659
we have is to assume that our
283
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:30,850
sure we do yeah yeah and you have to be
284
00:13:28,659 --> 00:13:33,129
ready for the thing that's out there
285
00:13:30,850 --> 00:13:35,259
that it's violence I was reminded back
286
00:13:33,129 --> 00:13:37,210
in the late 1890s how the head of the
287
00:13:35,259 --> 00:13:38,799
British Academy of Science said we know
288
00:13:37,210 --> 00:13:41,710
it all we're just wrapping up the
289
00:13:38,799 --> 00:13:43,539
details and there's a who was it was it
290
00:13:41,710 --> 00:13:45,430
Haldane or one of the famous British
291
00:13:43,539 --> 00:13:48,969
scientists spacecraft the space flight
292
00:13:45,429 --> 00:13:51,879
is utter bilge is a famous line I mean I
293
00:13:48,970 --> 00:13:54,279
love planks phrase which could be
294
00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:57,519
paraphrased that is how does science go
295
00:13:54,279 --> 00:13:58,990
forward he says funeral by funeral so I
296
00:13:57,519 --> 00:14:01,299
don't I really don't think it was only
297
00:13:58,990 --> 00:14:03,580
Lightspeed again it was it was it was
298
00:14:01,299 --> 00:14:07,329
more sociological psychological and
299
00:14:03,580 --> 00:14:09,520
philosophical reasoning that led
300
00:14:07,330 --> 00:14:11,290
scientists to reject UFO sightings aw
301
00:14:09,519 --> 00:14:13,539
there's another one there too this is a
302
00:14:11,289 --> 00:14:15,849
corollary to the we don't know it we
303
00:14:13,539 --> 00:14:18,009
don't unaware but it can't be true we
304
00:14:15,850 --> 00:14:20,680
will not we the scientists will not use
305
00:14:18,009 --> 00:14:22,960
data that comes from the public that
306
00:14:20,679 --> 00:14:24,519
comes from the great unwashed and of
307
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,870
course physicists and astronomers well
308
00:14:24,519 --> 00:14:28,120
at least the physicists don't ever do
309
00:14:25,870 --> 00:14:30,429
this or chemists astronomers do a little
310
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,990
bit with amateur astronomers but but
311
00:14:30,429 --> 00:14:34,839
other scientists don't and they're just
312
00:14:31,990 --> 00:14:36,700
not used to saying well we could be
313
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,769
getting some valuable evidence from
314
00:14:36,700 --> 00:14:40,540
people who are out there one of the
315
00:14:38,769 --> 00:14:43,960
themes that comes out in the early
316
00:14:40,539 --> 00:14:45,579
history of UFO G was that the UFOs
317
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,170
weren't actually there for investigation
318
00:14:45,580 --> 00:14:50,259
but the people who reported them were
319
00:14:47,169 --> 00:14:52,240
and this is what led to a whole group of
320
00:14:50,259 --> 00:14:53,439
psychological kinds of interpretations
321
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,970
and then they were essentially negative
322
00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,380
ones the person stupid they're lying
323
00:14:54,970 --> 00:14:57,910
they're drunk they don't know what
324
00:14:56,379 --> 00:14:59,500
they're talking about they're crazy and
325
00:14:57,909 --> 00:15:01,659
then you let off the hook right there's
326
00:14:59,500 --> 00:15:03,909
no real challenge to science there's no
327
00:15:01,659 --> 00:15:06,429
real challenge to what you currently
328
00:15:03,909 --> 00:15:07,809
believe because it's this person's
329
00:15:06,429 --> 00:15:08,169
problem you know something wrong with
330
00:15:07,809 --> 00:15:10,389
them
331
00:15:08,169 --> 00:15:12,779
so we don't have to rethink things like
332
00:15:10,389 --> 00:15:15,220
interstellar travel you know
333
00:15:12,779 --> 00:15:17,439
interdimensional tea you know whatever
334
00:15:15,220 --> 00:15:19,720
you know Mike Minor might not be out
335
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,700
there there was a terrific example of
336
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:27,450
this that's that's in my chapter in
337
00:15:21,700 --> 00:15:30,009
there and it was a Russian spacecraft
338
00:15:27,450 --> 00:15:33,490
satellite called Zond
339
00:15:30,009 --> 00:15:35,379
zond for I think it was and that was a
340
00:15:33,490 --> 00:15:37,509
big rocket booster and that reentered
341
00:15:35,379 --> 00:15:38,710
over the United States came in through
342
00:15:37,509 --> 00:15:41,169
the atmosphere
343
00:15:38,710 --> 00:15:43,509
as we know from you know modern films
344
00:15:41,169 --> 00:15:45,449
and the disaster shuttle breakup and
345
00:15:43,509 --> 00:15:48,610
things like that these things come in
346
00:15:45,450 --> 00:15:49,930
start to glow they start to they get hot
347
00:15:48,610 --> 00:15:51,490
from friction with the atmosphere they
348
00:15:49,929 --> 00:15:54,099
start to break up just like a meteorite
349
00:15:51,490 --> 00:15:56,019
or a fireball and you get a string of
350
00:15:54,100 --> 00:15:57,639
fragments and I've actually seen one of
351
00:15:56,019 --> 00:16:00,159
these I saw one of the shuttle tanks
352
00:15:57,639 --> 00:16:02,110
re-enter over Hawaii once and it's it's
353
00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:04,659
amazing it's remarkable it's like a big
354
00:16:02,110 --> 00:16:06,159
mass of fireworks the one I saw they
355
00:16:04,659 --> 00:16:08,049
were all kind of sparkling and there
356
00:16:06,159 --> 00:16:09,639
they're moving across the sky together
357
00:16:08,049 --> 00:16:11,109
because you know there's like the big
358
00:16:09,639 --> 00:16:13,090
piece out in front and some smaller
359
00:16:11,110 --> 00:16:14,830
pieces behind and they're slowly
360
00:16:13,090 --> 00:16:17,160
spreading out but what you see moving
361
00:16:14,830 --> 00:16:21,639
across the sky is that string of Lights
362
00:16:17,159 --> 00:16:25,120
together and we could say that's the
363
00:16:21,639 --> 00:16:27,460
perception in this case now I was given
364
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:29,710
on the Condon Commission a folder of
365
00:16:27,460 --> 00:16:33,970
what I remember is something like 150 or
366
00:16:29,710 --> 00:16:37,269
200 reports of this and one of the
367
00:16:33,970 --> 00:16:40,480
strangest things I experienced there was
368
00:16:37,269 --> 00:16:42,189
that in general the people who knew what
369
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,190
they were looking at the people who said
370
00:16:42,190 --> 00:16:46,770
gee that must be a satellite re-entering
371
00:16:45,190 --> 00:16:49,600
the atmosphere and breaking out
372
00:16:46,769 --> 00:16:52,299
they gave the shortest and Christmas
373
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:54,040
reports you know I saw this bright
374
00:16:52,299 --> 00:16:55,419
things and lights in the sky I think
375
00:16:54,039 --> 00:16:57,490
maybe it was a satellite breaking up
376
00:16:55,419 --> 00:17:00,610
it's kind of the end of the story the
377
00:16:57,490 --> 00:17:03,399
people who most badly misconceived it
378
00:17:00,610 --> 00:17:05,559
they conceived that they saw something
379
00:17:03,399 --> 00:17:08,889
else gave the most elaborate and
380
00:17:05,559 --> 00:17:10,720
detailed reports and some great examples
381
00:17:08,890 --> 00:17:13,509
of that there were even a progression of
382
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,920
stages there were the people who as I
383
00:17:13,509 --> 00:17:17,230
say the people who said oh this is
384
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,850
satellite and the story then there were
385
00:17:17,230 --> 00:17:21,819
the people who were describing what they
386
00:17:18,849 --> 00:17:25,389
saw and they said I saw a string of
387
00:17:21,819 --> 00:17:26,919
lights you know it kind of in a line
388
00:17:25,390 --> 00:17:30,460
moving across the sky well that's
389
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:32,470
basically absolutely accurate great
390
00:17:30,460 --> 00:17:35,620
great example of the perception
391
00:17:32,470 --> 00:17:37,690
correctly reported as a conception and
392
00:17:35,619 --> 00:17:39,519
so on then were people who started
393
00:17:37,690 --> 00:17:43,180
introducing a very subtle difference
394
00:17:39,519 --> 00:17:45,720
there were people who said I saw a set
395
00:17:43,180 --> 00:17:49,620
of lights flying in formation
396
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:52,860
the sky a little bit of a different idea
397
00:17:49,619 --> 00:17:55,319
there you know it's the idea that
398
00:17:52,859 --> 00:17:57,359
somehow they're under control I just was
399
00:17:55,319 --> 00:18:00,149
relooking at that chapter that I wrote
400
00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:01,379
and I noticed there was a person who
401
00:18:00,150 --> 00:18:04,830
said they were flying in perfect
402
00:18:01,380 --> 00:18:07,169
military formation now if you know what
403
00:18:04,829 --> 00:18:09,240
he saw that's not a bad description but
404
00:18:07,169 --> 00:18:10,980
on the other hand if you come in and
405
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,599
you're talking to this guy next day and
406
00:18:10,980 --> 00:18:15,659
he says I saw these things flying in
407
00:18:12,599 --> 00:18:18,269
military formation you think well you
408
00:18:15,659 --> 00:18:20,970
know was were these really a bunch of
409
00:18:18,269 --> 00:18:22,769
different craft flying along in military
410
00:18:20,970 --> 00:18:25,140
formation that's that's not what he saw
411
00:18:22,769 --> 00:18:27,298
but that's his conception and then
412
00:18:25,140 --> 00:18:29,400
finally you know we get to the this end
413
00:18:27,298 --> 00:18:31,079
as I say with the detailed descriptions
414
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:34,350
there were people who said I saw a black
415
00:18:31,079 --> 00:18:36,629
cigar-shaped object with a row of lights
416
00:18:34,349 --> 00:18:38,519
and of course they didn't see the black
417
00:18:36,630 --> 00:18:39,780
cigar-shaped object they conceived it it
418
00:18:38,519 --> 00:18:40,950
had to be there because there had to be
419
00:18:39,779 --> 00:18:42,779
something for those lights to be
420
00:18:40,950 --> 00:18:44,190
attached to then there were the people
421
00:18:42,779 --> 00:18:46,230
who said I saw a black cigar-shaped
422
00:18:44,190 --> 00:18:48,659
object with a row of lighted windows and
423
00:18:46,230 --> 00:18:51,210
we absolutely had reports like that and
424
00:18:48,659 --> 00:18:52,679
then the last two or three that were the
425
00:18:51,210 --> 00:18:54,419
furthest off you know I saw the
426
00:18:52,679 --> 00:18:55,950
cigar-shaped probably the windows it was
427
00:18:54,419 --> 00:18:57,450
so close we could have seen people
428
00:18:55,950 --> 00:18:59,460
inside the windows if there had been
429
00:18:57,450 --> 00:19:01,740
anybody in there my dog was barking and
430
00:18:59,460 --> 00:19:04,019
whimpering and and there were fires in
431
00:19:01,740 --> 00:19:07,019
the fields outside of town the next day
432
00:19:04,019 --> 00:19:11,190
and you know all of that and you know
433
00:19:07,019 --> 00:19:13,918
you come in as a either inexperienced or
434
00:19:11,190 --> 00:19:16,440
and maybe an inexperienced UFO report
435
00:19:13,919 --> 00:19:18,840
you know investigator looking for
436
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:21,210
reports of alien craft you know those
437
00:19:18,839 --> 00:19:22,798
sound like pretty good reports and so
438
00:19:21,210 --> 00:19:24,179
you know they're all the same thing and
439
00:19:22,798 --> 00:19:28,200
they were all a satellite breaking up in
440
00:19:24,179 --> 00:19:32,269
the atmosphere so really tough to to
441
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:32,269
translate those into real understanding
442
00:19:35,759 --> 00:19:44,279
as proof of the EXO tres hypothesis
443
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:47,730
remained elusive some ufologists began
444
00:19:44,279 --> 00:19:50,430
to look in other directions and some of
445
00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:52,410
the more 40 inclined ufologists the ones
446
00:19:50,430 --> 00:19:55,950
who were attracted to the idea that UFOs
447
00:19:52,410 --> 00:20:00,140
were part of a broad range of anomalies
448
00:19:55,950 --> 00:20:02,850
and mysteries speculation grew that
449
00:20:00,140 --> 00:20:06,120
there weren't extraterrestrial visitors
450
00:20:02,849 --> 00:20:09,679
that these were actually paranormal
451
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:14,669
entities who is the realm of year drew
452
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:17,640
in 1960s about the mid 1960s the idea
453
00:20:14,670 --> 00:20:20,130
begins to form that UFOs really aren't
454
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:22,860
what they appear to be they may not even
455
00:20:20,130 --> 00:20:25,890
be craft they may not even represent a
456
00:20:22,859 --> 00:20:28,439
technology in the ordinarily understood
457
00:20:25,890 --> 00:20:32,460
sense of those words that these were
458
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:36,240
actually shape-shifting entities from
459
00:20:32,460 --> 00:20:40,019
some unknown Otherworld a parallel
460
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:43,849
universe a demonic realm something like
461
00:20:40,019 --> 00:20:47,639
that and there was an attempt to link
462
00:20:43,849 --> 00:20:49,619
flying saucers not only with other weird
463
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:52,650
phenomena that people reported like
464
00:20:49,619 --> 00:20:55,289
strange creatures and so on but also to
465
00:20:52,650 --> 00:20:58,470
traditional folkloric entities like
466
00:20:55,289 --> 00:21:01,200
fairies and angels and demons which were
467
00:20:58,470 --> 00:21:04,440
also interpreted as not literal entities
468
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,509
but as representations of kind of
469
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:09,240
cultural expectations about supernatural
470
00:21:06,509 --> 00:21:12,019
experience these things existed in some
471
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:20,940
sense the experiences of them were real
472
00:21:12,019 --> 00:21:23,730
but but they weren't what they appeared
473
00:21:20,940 --> 00:21:25,370
to be that they really were something
474
00:21:23,730 --> 00:21:28,680
else representing some kind of unknown
475
00:21:25,369 --> 00:21:32,399
other reality the most influential
476
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:36,720
writers in this new school were jacques
477
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:38,519
valet and John keel in 1969 Jacques
478
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:41,750
Vallee wrote a book called passport to
479
00:21:38,519 --> 00:21:45,420
Magana where he links modern UFOs to
480
00:21:41,750 --> 00:21:48,809
traditional beliefs about fairies demons
481
00:21:45,420 --> 00:21:51,150
gods entities of various kinds
482
00:21:48,809 --> 00:21:55,259
at the time passport ammonia was
483
00:21:51,150 --> 00:21:58,560
published it was looked on more as an
484
00:21:55,259 --> 00:22:01,339
ancient astronaut type text rather than
485
00:21:58,559 --> 00:22:05,490
a real subversion of the whole
486
00:22:01,339 --> 00:22:08,039
extra-terrestrial hypothesis most people
487
00:22:05,490 --> 00:22:10,410
read it and said well okay the aliens
488
00:22:08,039 --> 00:22:11,970
must have been around from time
489
00:22:10,410 --> 00:22:16,920
immemorial you know this is just more
490
00:22:11,970 --> 00:22:19,170
evidence for the same but in fact what
491
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,920
Malay was saying was was something quite
492
00:22:19,170 --> 00:22:24,539
different
493
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:28,710
was that the UFOs are just a part of
494
00:22:24,539 --> 00:22:30,269
some larger mystery John keel who is
495
00:22:28,710 --> 00:22:34,950
much less intellectually sophisticated
496
00:22:30,269 --> 00:22:37,200
but just as influential as valet wrote
497
00:22:34,950 --> 00:22:40,620
several books in which he revived
498
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:43,350
traditional demonology and he argued
499
00:22:40,619 --> 00:22:45,359
that UFOs and their entities and all
500
00:22:43,349 --> 00:22:48,629
kinds of other strange creatures were
501
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:50,639
literally demanding entities he didn't
502
00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:54,360
say they were from Hell but he called
503
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:57,330
the renamed hell the super spectrum the
504
00:22:54,359 --> 00:23:00,209
super spectrum was also related to the
505
00:22:57,329 --> 00:23:03,799
traditional occult idea of the etheric
506
00:23:00,210 --> 00:23:11,569
realm a realm on another level of
507
00:23:03,799 --> 00:23:14,039
vibrational frequency it did sort of
508
00:23:11,569 --> 00:23:18,349
mesh with the spirit of the times
509
00:23:14,039 --> 00:23:21,180
the idea of getting away from technology
510
00:23:18,349 --> 00:23:23,149
you know scientists and government as
511
00:23:21,180 --> 00:23:25,410
the good guys
512
00:23:23,150 --> 00:23:29,519
which you know you see in all those
513
00:23:25,410 --> 00:23:31,170
1950s monster outerspace movies the
514
00:23:29,519 --> 00:23:36,569
heroes are always scientists and
515
00:23:31,170 --> 00:23:40,170
soldiers complete revolution there they
516
00:23:36,569 --> 00:23:42,659
become the villains and the
517
00:23:40,170 --> 00:23:46,320
counterculture in the notion of a
518
00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:48,000
new-age relief in this one more
519
00:23:46,319 --> 00:23:50,909
spiritual sort of thing becomes very
520
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:55,450
popular so this idea of valet is that
521
00:23:50,910 --> 00:24:00,000
there might be some kind of mysterious
522
00:23:55,450 --> 00:24:03,819
force I had almost a star wars since
523
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:06,849
controlling yeah I'll out there and is
524
00:24:03,819 --> 00:24:11,079
responsible for many manifestations of
525
00:24:06,849 --> 00:24:15,398
the paranormal that quickly call it on
526
00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:18,490
now to critics this was really an
527
00:24:15,398 --> 00:24:20,979
abdication of Reason logic and science
528
00:24:18,490 --> 00:24:24,339
that this was really a reversion to
529
00:24:20,980 --> 00:24:29,500
magical thinking and a rejection of
530
00:24:24,339 --> 00:24:35,220
science and reason as the right tools
531
00:24:29,500 --> 00:24:40,240
with which to investigate phenomena but
532
00:24:35,220 --> 00:24:43,720
the absence of conclusive proof for
533
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:46,659
these you know extraordinary phenomena
534
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:49,179
was very frustrating to a lot of people
535
00:24:46,659 --> 00:24:51,760
and some people had come to this less of
536
00:24:49,179 --> 00:24:55,500
scientists than is mystery mongers they
537
00:24:51,759 --> 00:24:58,359
weren't really hard clear thinkers
538
00:24:55,500 --> 00:25:01,179
ballet was trained as a scientist ballet
539
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:04,359
was trained as a physicist ballet was
540
00:25:01,179 --> 00:25:09,399
intellectually sophisticated and not as
541
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:12,689
inclined to rank paranoia as keel and
542
00:25:09,398 --> 00:25:15,609
his followers were but still underlying
543
00:25:12,690 --> 00:25:18,940
his reading of what was going on was
544
00:25:15,609 --> 00:25:21,879
really magical thinking that really had
545
00:25:18,940 --> 00:25:26,788
as much to do with traditional occultism
546
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:26,789
as with science
547
00:25:30,700 --> 00:25:39,350
out of the paranormal school of you
548
00:25:35,029 --> 00:25:42,048
Falah djegal theory there evolved the so
549
00:25:39,349 --> 00:25:44,719
called psychosocial hypothesis which
550
00:25:42,048 --> 00:25:48,859
actually rejected paranormal processes
551
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:52,690
but did see UFO reports and experiences
552
00:25:48,859 --> 00:25:55,639
as part of a broad range of folkloric
553
00:25:52,690 --> 00:25:58,429
supernatural phenomena but instead of
554
00:25:55,640 --> 00:26:01,690
ascribing them to demons or parallel
555
00:25:58,429 --> 00:26:05,509
universes or some other unknowable place
556
00:26:01,690 --> 00:26:07,700
held them to be psychological phenomena
557
00:26:05,509 --> 00:26:12,279
sometimes extraordinary psychological
558
00:26:07,700 --> 00:26:16,600
phenomena this school really grew among
559
00:26:12,279 --> 00:26:21,619
European ufologists and to this day is
560
00:26:16,599 --> 00:26:24,619
fairly popular in in Europe representing
561
00:26:21,619 --> 00:26:27,918
a kind of skeptical ufology which is
562
00:26:24,619 --> 00:26:32,469
making its own variety of extraordinary
563
00:26:27,919 --> 00:26:36,799
claims they tend very much to look for
564
00:26:32,470 --> 00:26:39,860
answers in what you might call tradition
565
00:26:36,798 --> 00:26:42,889
the idea that you are that certain ideas
566
00:26:39,859 --> 00:26:45,859
have been passed along they want to find
567
00:26:42,890 --> 00:26:47,600
cultural antecedents you know it here
568
00:26:45,859 --> 00:26:49,308
are the here's the same imagery as
569
00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:51,619
abductions we can find it in science
570
00:26:49,308 --> 00:26:54,440
fiction we could find it in stories of
571
00:26:51,619 --> 00:26:57,859
fairy kidnap you can find it in all
572
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:59,558
sorts of cultural predecessors that
573
00:26:57,859 --> 00:27:02,119
doesn't mean that there's some kind of
574
00:26:59,558 --> 00:27:03,259
organizing force it just means that it
575
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:07,389
has something to do with the way we
576
00:27:03,259 --> 00:27:11,298
think and believe and there's really no
577
00:27:07,390 --> 00:27:14,690
mysterious unknown phenomenon involved
578
00:27:11,298 --> 00:27:19,668
critics of paranormal and cycle social
579
00:27:14,690 --> 00:27:22,190
approaches to UFO theory pointed out
580
00:27:19,669 --> 00:27:23,900
that there is a body of physical
581
00:27:22,190 --> 00:27:26,840
evidence for the presence of something
582
00:27:23,900 --> 00:27:29,870
anomalous that seems irreducible that
583
00:27:26,839 --> 00:27:32,869
doesn't seem amenable to prosaic
584
00:27:29,869 --> 00:27:35,928
explanation or to being contained within
585
00:27:32,869 --> 00:27:38,389
known knowledge at this stage and so
586
00:27:35,929 --> 00:27:40,548
they would respond to psychosocial
587
00:27:38,390 --> 00:27:43,770
theorists and paranormalists as saying
588
00:27:40,548 --> 00:27:46,410
and this isn't all just Airy fairy
589
00:27:43,769 --> 00:27:47,879
this isn't all subjective there actually
590
00:27:46,410 --> 00:27:49,920
is some objective evidence that
591
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:56,630
something strange is going on
592
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:59,430
and the paranormalists and the
593
00:27:56,630 --> 00:28:03,950
psychosocial skeptics could never really
594
00:27:59,430 --> 00:28:08,340
adequately rebut this argument and
595
00:28:03,950 --> 00:28:11,009
eventually some ufologists who had gone
596
00:28:08,339 --> 00:28:14,990
over to the paranormal or psychosocial
597
00:28:11,009 --> 00:28:18,359
side said yes the physical evidence is
598
00:28:14,990 --> 00:28:21,650
really the core evidence it really is at
599
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,649
the core of the controversy
600
00:28:27,529 --> 00:28:31,079
it's amazing how quickly galaxies are
601
00:28:29,940 --> 00:28:32,669
formed the
602
00:28:31,079 --> 00:28:35,849
old Space Telescope did a couple of very
603
00:28:32,669 --> 00:28:37,740
deep surveys very long exposures to look
604
00:28:35,849 --> 00:28:39,178
for the most distant clusters and
605
00:28:37,740 --> 00:28:41,788
individual galaxies and found that
606
00:28:39,179 --> 00:28:43,320
galaxies formed sometime around the
607
00:28:41,788 --> 00:28:45,869
first billion year age of the universe
608
00:28:43,319 --> 00:28:47,038
and so that means the stars of course
609
00:28:45,869 --> 00:28:49,528
which constitute galaxies have been
610
00:28:47,038 --> 00:28:51,329
around that long so a civilization could
611
00:28:49,528 --> 00:28:52,919
be rather old you have to assume of
612
00:28:51,329 --> 00:28:54,629
course that evolution took place and
613
00:28:52,919 --> 00:28:56,220
that takes some time but certainly
614
00:28:54,630 --> 00:28:57,419
civilizations at least a billion years
615
00:28:56,220 --> 00:28:59,038
older than ours are theoretically
616
00:28:57,419 --> 00:29:01,890
possible maybe even much older than that
617
00:28:59,038 --> 00:29:04,379
the first job one generation of stars
618
00:29:01,890 --> 00:29:07,679
has to go by you know I think four to
619
00:29:04,380 --> 00:29:08,760
five million years well it depends I
620
00:29:07,679 --> 00:29:10,139
mean the very heaviest star is about
621
00:29:08,759 --> 00:29:11,460
pretty quickly the involvement time
622
00:29:10,138 --> 00:29:13,558
skills of even less than a billion years
623
00:29:11,460 --> 00:29:16,769
so it's possible that there could be
624
00:29:13,558 --> 00:29:20,158
civilizations that are very very old how
625
00:29:16,769 --> 00:29:21,359
what would be what would the limit well
626
00:29:20,159 --> 00:29:23,130
just say ten billion years that'd be
627
00:29:21,359 --> 00:29:25,469
about twice as old as as the
628
00:29:23,130 --> 00:29:27,960
civilization could be ten billion years
629
00:29:25,470 --> 00:29:29,579
or well I suppose so I mean the
630
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,079
symbolization of all during the first
631
00:29:29,579 --> 00:29:33,359
say four billion years of existence of
632
00:29:31,079 --> 00:29:35,129
university that's not out of the
633
00:29:33,359 --> 00:29:36,808
question more conservatives say it's
634
00:29:35,130 --> 00:29:39,028
easy to imagine a civilization at least
635
00:29:36,808 --> 00:29:40,470
a billion years older than we are leave
636
00:29:39,028 --> 00:29:41,490
at that ten billion well it's kind of
637
00:29:40,470 --> 00:29:44,250
stretching it but it's not out of the
638
00:29:41,490 --> 00:29:47,548
question in my view the universe is
639
00:29:44,250 --> 00:29:48,480
really old compared to our age not super
640
00:29:47,548 --> 00:29:50,069
old because you know you can imagine
641
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,778
what a trillion years old and we're not
642
00:29:50,069 --> 00:29:53,849
nearly close to that but it's pretty old
643
00:29:51,778 --> 00:29:55,829
and what that means is I'm ticularly
644
00:29:53,849 --> 00:29:59,189
with recent astronomical discoveries is
645
00:29:55,829 --> 00:30:01,199
that in fact the average civilization in
646
00:29:59,190 --> 00:30:03,870
the galaxy how can I even speak of it
647
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:05,730
because just pick the average age of a
648
00:30:03,869 --> 00:30:07,349
planet like Earth in other words in a
649
00:30:05,730 --> 00:30:09,690
solar system you know what would be the
650
00:30:07,349 --> 00:30:11,609
average age of a solar system or like
651
00:30:09,690 --> 00:30:16,528
the Sun like solar system the answer is
652
00:30:11,609 --> 00:30:18,329
a billion years older than ours so when
653
00:30:16,528 --> 00:30:19,888
you start imagining what a billion year
654
00:30:18,329 --> 00:30:21,990
old civilization would be like the
655
00:30:19,888 --> 00:30:25,199
answer is I can't imagine it so I
656
00:30:21,990 --> 00:30:28,230
imagine almost anything including yes
657
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:31,470
the earth is just a place to come and
658
00:30:28,230 --> 00:30:33,120
enjoy the local natives and or what have
659
00:30:31,470 --> 00:30:35,308
you but but it really means that that
660
00:30:33,119 --> 00:30:37,638
almost anything is possible to be able
661
00:30:35,308 --> 00:30:39,769
to be honest so
662
00:30:37,638 --> 00:30:41,148
I find it difficult that my mind does
663
00:30:39,769 --> 00:30:43,838
begin to reel actually when I think
664
00:30:41,148 --> 00:30:46,699
about billion years civilizations well
665
00:30:43,838 --> 00:30:48,558
so a lot of people will say something
666
00:30:46,700 --> 00:30:50,778
like what would a technology be liked
667
00:30:48,558 --> 00:30:54,739
it's a billion years in advance of us I
668
00:30:50,778 --> 00:30:58,219
say I don't need a billion years give me
669
00:30:54,739 --> 00:31:00,319
a thousand years and if you don't think
670
00:30:58,219 --> 00:31:04,879
that would be kind of amazing just think
671
00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:09,458
back a thousand years in hand some guy
672
00:31:04,878 --> 00:31:14,269
living in the 11th century a light bulb
673
00:31:09,459 --> 00:31:16,389
let alone a generator a nuclear power
674
00:31:14,269 --> 00:31:16,388
plant
675
00:31:22,130 --> 00:31:24,190
you
676
00:31:39,039 --> 00:31:42,299
I have an answer
677
00:31:42,609 --> 00:31:47,019
I think one of the things that may have
678
00:31:45,339 --> 00:31:49,059
been left out of the famous Drake
679
00:31:47,019 --> 00:31:50,799
Equation about trying to estimate how
680
00:31:49,059 --> 00:31:52,149
many what fraction of solar systems have
681
00:31:50,799 --> 00:31:55,809
planets what fraction of those planets
682
00:31:52,150 --> 00:31:57,820
have life by the law is that technical
683
00:31:55,809 --> 00:31:59,319
civilizations may only last a thousand
684
00:31:57,819 --> 00:32:01,179
years or ten thousand years you know
685
00:31:59,319 --> 00:32:03,759
that we've begun we're I don't know I
686
00:32:01,180 --> 00:32:06,330
I'm not sure we could be that optimistic
687
00:32:03,759 --> 00:32:09,129
about our own culture what we're seeing
688
00:32:06,329 --> 00:32:10,750
and whether we get off the earth and get
689
00:32:09,130 --> 00:32:12,580
out there before we use up all the
690
00:32:10,750 --> 00:32:16,000
resources I mean we may only have one
691
00:32:12,579 --> 00:32:18,779
shot at doing that so it may be that the
692
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:22,480
fraction of cultures that are around
693
00:32:18,779 --> 00:32:26,309
long enough to be interested not at is
694
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:28,900
small plus then there's the evolutionary
695
00:32:26,309 --> 00:32:32,259
window that you know you're only a
696
00:32:28,900 --> 00:32:33,820
species for four ten billion years I'm
697
00:32:32,259 --> 00:32:36,910
ten million years that's kind of the
698
00:32:33,819 --> 00:32:40,059
turnover time for evolution so so the
699
00:32:36,910 --> 00:32:42,460
idea that cultures once they achieve
700
00:32:40,059 --> 00:32:46,029
space travel remain interested in
701
00:32:42,460 --> 00:32:47,740
everybody else you know seems small to
702
00:32:46,029 --> 00:32:49,869
me I don't think that's probably likely
703
00:32:47,740 --> 00:32:52,500
I guess the point is simply that Fermi's
704
00:32:49,869 --> 00:32:55,389
paradox is a bigger paradox now that was
705
00:32:52,500 --> 00:32:57,460
5060 years ago and Fermi first made his
706
00:32:55,390 --> 00:32:59,980
famous quip so we've got to face up to
707
00:32:57,460 --> 00:33:01,900
it and I think that the the problem is
708
00:32:59,980 --> 00:33:03,610
that the scientific community is
709
00:33:01,900 --> 00:33:06,400
unwilling to consider the possibility
710
00:33:03,609 --> 00:33:09,009
that in this is giant more asked which
711
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,870
is the the field of UFO reports that
712
00:33:09,009 --> 00:33:12,970
there might be lurking some really valid
713
00:33:10,869 --> 00:33:14,859
signal it's just a mindset that that
714
00:33:12,970 --> 00:33:16,299
can't be and I think that's I think
715
00:33:14,859 --> 00:33:20,649
that's actually to the detriment of
716
00:33:16,299 --> 00:33:22,829
science i and bernie hey Bruce Maccabee
717
00:33:20,650 --> 00:33:25,720
Jim Dierdorf
718
00:33:22,829 --> 00:33:28,389
put together a paper for the journal the
719
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,460
British interplanetary society which it
720
00:33:28,390 --> 00:33:35,590
which is a very well-respected journal
721
00:33:30,460 --> 00:33:40,299
and first covered the what we began with
722
00:33:35,589 --> 00:33:42,939
Fermi's paradox you know famous makes
723
00:33:40,299 --> 00:33:44,859
the claimed expression by Fermi which
724
00:33:42,940 --> 00:33:47,980
which which did take place when he said
725
00:33:44,859 --> 00:33:50,339
well all astrophysicists looking out at
726
00:33:47,980 --> 00:33:52,309
all those stars and all those galaxies
727
00:33:50,339 --> 00:33:54,049
know that I'm
728
00:33:52,309 --> 00:33:56,029
we want to really be pumped up with
729
00:33:54,049 --> 00:33:58,430
hubris there's got to be other et
730
00:33:56,029 --> 00:34:01,369
civilizations out there furthermore if
731
00:33:58,430 --> 00:34:03,410
you look at the statistics of travel
732
00:34:01,369 --> 00:34:05,769
even if you're very conservative and say
733
00:34:03,410 --> 00:34:08,420
you can't beat the speed of light and
734
00:34:05,769 --> 00:34:10,250
each time you go to a new star you stay
735
00:34:08,420 --> 00:34:14,920
there for a million years before you go
736
00:34:10,250 --> 00:34:17,780
off to look at another star nonetheless
737
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:20,119
you end up saying the galaxy should be
738
00:34:17,780 --> 00:34:21,950
colonized by now because after all we're
739
00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:23,150
a relatively young star were less than
740
00:34:21,949 --> 00:34:24,949
four billion years old
741
00:34:23,150 --> 00:34:27,260
we've got stars in our galaxy ten
742
00:34:24,949 --> 00:34:29,750
billion years old that's plenty of time
743
00:34:27,260 --> 00:34:32,780
for for us to be colonized so where are
744
00:34:29,750 --> 00:34:33,590
they and the answer at the time this is
745
00:34:32,780 --> 00:34:35,990
back in
746
00:34:33,590 --> 00:34:39,620
I don't know 40s 50s well as well
747
00:34:35,989 --> 00:34:43,279
probably speed of light limitation so
748
00:34:39,619 --> 00:34:45,889
looking at that we said okay well that
749
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:47,660
limitation now has begun to evaporate
750
00:34:45,889 --> 00:34:49,219
due to the new understandings and
751
00:34:47,659 --> 00:34:51,739
predictions coming up general relativity
752
00:34:49,219 --> 00:34:54,069
so that's not the issue well what about
753
00:34:51,739 --> 00:34:57,139
what Condon said in his report well
754
00:34:54,070 --> 00:34:59,180
that's not really an issue either
755
00:34:57,139 --> 00:35:02,210
because we now have better data better
756
00:34:59,179 --> 00:35:04,369
sightings more evidence so finally came
757
00:35:02,210 --> 00:35:06,920
down to least in that paper we sweet and
758
00:35:04,369 --> 00:35:09,019
we talked about a couple of cases at
759
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,670
Bruce Maccabee had been directly
760
00:35:09,019 --> 00:35:13,190
involved investigating that's seen
761
00:35:10,670 --> 00:35:16,579
pretty good and then you finally get to
762
00:35:13,190 --> 00:35:20,929
the issue of well that's the case and
763
00:35:16,579 --> 00:35:22,699
why don't we see the evidence um well
764
00:35:20,929 --> 00:35:24,649
you can claim that UFO sightings are
765
00:35:22,699 --> 00:35:26,859
possibly evidence but of course that
766
00:35:24,650 --> 00:35:29,809
hasn't met the scientific standard of
767
00:35:26,860 --> 00:35:32,690
really being proven and then the
768
00:35:29,809 --> 00:35:34,099
question is well if they're kind of here
769
00:35:32,690 --> 00:35:36,309
but they're not showing themselves why
770
00:35:34,099 --> 00:35:36,309
is that
771
00:35:37,849 --> 00:35:45,390
one possibility is that if you're a
772
00:35:42,690 --> 00:35:48,570
super advanced race super advanced
773
00:35:45,389 --> 00:35:50,279
technology what some value to you you
774
00:35:48,570 --> 00:35:51,869
don't need slaves you don't need
775
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,550
minerals out of the ground you don't
776
00:35:51,869 --> 00:35:55,710
need this you don't need that you can
777
00:35:53,550 --> 00:35:57,450
basically make whatever you want so the
778
00:35:55,710 --> 00:35:59,460
only thing of value would be the
779
00:35:57,449 --> 00:36:04,879
intellectual property and creativity of
780
00:35:59,460 --> 00:36:07,079
an uncontaminated species uncontaminated
781
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:09,329
uncontaminated being because I show up
782
00:36:07,079 --> 00:36:11,489
here and say whoa internal combustion
783
00:36:09,329 --> 00:36:13,500
machine we would have thought of that or
784
00:36:11,489 --> 00:36:16,049
look at those musical scales now that's
785
00:36:13,500 --> 00:36:18,239
that's really something and but the
786
00:36:16,050 --> 00:36:20,880
minute they land and we shake their
787
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:24,598
hands 100 years with them and we've lost
788
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:27,030
our value and also as we know from
789
00:36:24,599 --> 00:36:30,539
interacting with primitive societies the
790
00:36:27,030 --> 00:36:33,630
shock and disrupt the society presumably
791
00:36:30,539 --> 00:36:37,349
they would know that too so what
792
00:36:33,630 --> 00:36:38,280
Dierdorf likes to point out is that okay
793
00:36:37,349 --> 00:36:42,619
they're not going to make themselves
794
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:44,940
immediately known or obvious reasons
795
00:36:42,619 --> 00:36:47,369
because it would destroy our value to
796
00:36:44,940 --> 00:36:49,470
them on the other hand and would be a
797
00:36:47,369 --> 00:36:51,000
shock on the other hand they know it's
798
00:36:49,469 --> 00:36:52,439
only a matter of time even if it's only
799
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,260
when we get our own space ships go out
800
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:56,929
there and run into them so we do have to
801
00:36:55,260 --> 00:36:59,490
kind of be brought along and our
802
00:36:56,929 --> 00:37:05,129
maturity to accept this as a possibility
803
00:36:59,489 --> 00:37:08,879
and so kind of a covert peekaboo process
804
00:37:05,130 --> 00:37:10,619
would be the favored one and you know
805
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,900
that could be the case obviously we
806
00:37:10,619 --> 00:37:14,760
don't know for sure there's almost
807
00:37:12,900 --> 00:37:17,010
nothing I can think of good that would
808
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:21,859
come from landing and making contact
809
00:37:17,010 --> 00:37:24,390
with another civilization that is not
810
00:37:21,858 --> 00:37:27,509
either comparable to yours in
811
00:37:24,389 --> 00:37:30,150
development or is so sophisticated that
812
00:37:27,510 --> 00:37:31,920
they can handle it and when you think
813
00:37:30,150 --> 00:37:35,519
about the scenarios we could all dream
814
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:37,200
of science fiction about contacting in
815
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:39,929
other words were the aliens and we we
816
00:37:37,199 --> 00:37:41,819
have this ability to travel we develop
817
00:37:39,929 --> 00:37:44,399
this technology we start flying around
818
00:37:41,820 --> 00:37:45,960
the galaxy we encounter another
819
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,838
civilization that's less advanced than
820
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,920
us would we land and the answer is I
821
00:37:48,838 --> 00:37:54,039
certainly would would not
822
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:55,450
yeah and I won't go through the long
823
00:37:54,039 --> 00:37:59,500
long list of bad things that can happen
824
00:37:55,449 --> 00:38:01,389
but there's it is a long list and so it
825
00:37:59,500 --> 00:38:02,889
by the way raises the question of when
826
00:38:01,389 --> 00:38:04,150
could contact even occur when you think
827
00:38:02,889 --> 00:38:05,710
about it that way and you realize that
828
00:38:04,150 --> 00:38:08,500
despite all the science fiction stuff in
829
00:38:05,710 --> 00:38:11,099
fact I think that societies would would
830
00:38:08,500 --> 00:38:12,880
pull back from contact and not do it
831
00:38:11,099 --> 00:38:15,130
when does it happen
832
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:17,710
actually and that to me is the more
833
00:38:15,130 --> 00:38:19,480
profound question and I don't have an
834
00:38:17,710 --> 00:38:21,250
answer that that there is an awful lot
835
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,548
of us assuming that they would be like
836
00:38:21,250 --> 00:38:27,369
us and I tend to fall into that trap
837
00:38:23,548 --> 00:38:30,159
frequently and it spits very hard very
838
00:38:27,369 --> 00:38:32,470
hard not to do it it may be of course
839
00:38:30,159 --> 00:38:34,868
that if the extraterrestrial
840
00:38:32,469 --> 00:38:36,759
intelligence were sufficiently different
841
00:38:34,869 --> 00:38:38,410
from us we would not recognize it we
842
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:41,559
would not know it was there we couldn't
843
00:38:38,409 --> 00:38:47,348
make sense of it and possibly vice-versa
844
00:38:41,559 --> 00:38:49,079
but you know that certainly we don't
845
00:38:47,349 --> 00:38:51,940
know how technology is going to progress
846
00:38:49,079 --> 00:38:55,930
right now it seems to be accelerating
847
00:38:51,940 --> 00:38:58,510
going very very fast will it you know
848
00:38:55,929 --> 00:39:02,019
level off will it taper will there be
849
00:38:58,510 --> 00:39:03,869
various plateaus but the different nough
850
00:39:02,019 --> 00:39:05,858
sub X tricked rational intelligence is
851
00:39:03,869 --> 00:39:07,150
something that has to be taken into
852
00:39:05,858 --> 00:39:11,500
account when we think about the
853
00:39:07,150 --> 00:39:15,760
possibilities of contact and if contact
854
00:39:11,500 --> 00:39:18,068
is going to occur and you know it
855
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:20,049
we might not notice it I mean sad but
856
00:39:18,068 --> 00:39:21,730
true well there could be good reasons
857
00:39:20,048 --> 00:39:23,199
why they don't say hello it could be if
858
00:39:21,730 --> 00:39:25,000
they're trying to keep our civilization
859
00:39:23,199 --> 00:39:26,588
from suddenly imploding because we're
860
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,989
encountering something that's beyond our
861
00:39:26,588 --> 00:39:31,719
ability to assimilate it could be that
862
00:39:28,989 --> 00:39:34,048
this is part of the plan to bring a new
863
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:36,699
civilization into the fold to gradually
864
00:39:34,048 --> 00:39:38,440
expose the phenomenon I think that there
865
00:39:36,699 --> 00:39:41,710
are a lot of reasons why it wouldn't
866
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:44,019
just come and land here if they if they
867
00:39:41,710 --> 00:39:45,659
so chose our own experience with South
868
00:39:44,019 --> 00:39:48,298
Pacific civilizations
869
00:39:45,659 --> 00:39:50,848
in European technology you know in the
870
00:39:48,298 --> 00:39:52,530
19th century should it should answer the
871
00:39:50,849 --> 00:39:55,289
question I mean those civilizations
872
00:39:52,530 --> 00:39:56,910
would practically destroy it well in
873
00:39:55,289 --> 00:39:58,589
fact it's true when we encountered
874
00:39:56,909 --> 00:39:59,818
ourselves more primitive civilizations
875
00:39:58,588 --> 00:40:01,078
we tend to destroy them but it may be
876
00:39:59,818 --> 00:40:04,230
even more severe than that I mean we
877
00:40:01,079 --> 00:40:05,640
don't tend to to try to initiate contact
878
00:40:04,230 --> 00:40:07,650
with them with a group of ants do we
879
00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:09,900
when we don't know how far advanced a
880
00:40:07,650 --> 00:40:11,220
civilization might be how many surprised
881
00:40:09,900 --> 00:40:13,200
we're tens of thousand but certainly
882
00:40:11,219 --> 00:40:15,058
decades or even centuries I would see as
883
00:40:13,199 --> 00:40:17,159
a possible timescale for making contact
884
00:40:15,059 --> 00:40:18,990
known if you look at the UFO reports
885
00:40:17,159 --> 00:40:20,639
they're oftentimes extremely convincing
886
00:40:18,989 --> 00:40:22,679
to the people who see them and witness
887
00:40:20,639 --> 00:40:25,199
them but the event never lasts long
888
00:40:22,679 --> 00:40:27,088
enough never has enough exposure to sort
889
00:40:25,199 --> 00:40:29,219
of rise to the surface of national
890
00:40:27,088 --> 00:40:31,078
attention and it could be that that that
891
00:40:29,219 --> 00:40:33,959
is part of a deliberate strategy I mean
892
00:40:31,079 --> 00:40:36,869
it could be one way to gradually make us
893
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:39,119
collectively as a civilization realize
894
00:40:36,869 --> 00:40:41,190
that there's more to reality than what
895
00:40:39,119 --> 00:40:42,869
we experience every day around us but
896
00:40:41,190 --> 00:40:44,970
without up suddenly upsetting the whole
897
00:40:42,869 --> 00:40:46,380
apple cart without suddenly sort of
898
00:40:44,969 --> 00:40:48,088
challenging all of our structures and
899
00:40:46,380 --> 00:40:50,670
our politics or economics it could which
900
00:40:48,088 --> 00:40:53,278
could be very devastating here's another
901
00:40:50,670 --> 00:40:57,599
thought maybe it's already taking place
902
00:40:53,278 --> 00:41:00,329
maybe that you know flying around or
903
00:40:57,599 --> 00:41:03,510
whatever in a kind of liminal way right
904
00:41:00,329 --> 00:41:06,180
at the margins of our reality is in fact
905
00:41:03,510 --> 00:41:08,039
the first step to towards a Content you
906
00:41:06,179 --> 00:41:09,960
know that that contact would not be
907
00:41:08,039 --> 00:41:12,230
something which would be abrupt but
908
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:15,449
maybe is designed to take place over
909
00:41:12,230 --> 00:41:18,599
thousands of years so that the impact on
910
00:41:15,449 --> 00:41:20,009
us is yep this this is actually how if I
911
00:41:18,599 --> 00:41:22,710
were in charge how I would manage
912
00:41:20,010 --> 00:41:24,650
contact and this is sort of getting back
913
00:41:22,710 --> 00:41:29,130
to this idea of the dawning realization
914
00:41:24,650 --> 00:41:30,750
that you know if if everyone reaches the
915
00:41:29,130 --> 00:41:32,460
same conclusion at once it would be very
916
00:41:30,750 --> 00:41:34,889
exciting if slowly more and more people
917
00:41:32,460 --> 00:41:37,519
are drawn into one position or the other
918
00:41:34,889 --> 00:41:40,368
and then finally there's just a small
919
00:41:37,519 --> 00:41:43,829
very small group of holdouts that
920
00:41:40,369 --> 00:41:46,470
maintain a contrary view of what will
921
00:41:43,829 --> 00:41:48,650
buy in the case of something like
922
00:41:46,469 --> 00:41:51,000
contact if we're talking about
923
00:41:48,650 --> 00:41:55,650
civilizations billions of years older
924
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:57,960
than us what would be the rush in modern
925
00:41:55,650 --> 00:41:59,910
North America we're always in a rush
926
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,519
no we wouldn't think of building a
927
00:41:59,909 --> 00:42:06,358
cathedral say over a period of 800 years
928
00:42:02,519 --> 00:42:10,588
as was done in an evil times give it a
929
00:42:06,358 --> 00:42:12,239
few years but those if something were
930
00:42:10,588 --> 00:42:14,969
truly momentous then indeed it could
931
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:16,769
could take place very very slowly over
932
00:42:14,969 --> 00:42:19,139
many people's lifetimes and and what
933
00:42:16,769 --> 00:42:21,000
this would mean if it were to take place
934
00:42:19,139 --> 00:42:23,219
over many people's lifetimes is that
935
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:26,550
there would always be there would be a
936
00:42:23,219 --> 00:42:28,709
growing group of people who quote thinks
937
00:42:26,550 --> 00:42:30,210
something's going on with a lot of other
938
00:42:28,710 --> 00:42:32,099
people who still don't agree with them
939
00:42:30,210 --> 00:42:34,050
but why would there be a rush
940
00:42:32,099 --> 00:42:37,230
requirement and something is delicate
941
00:42:34,050 --> 00:42:39,920
and portentous you might say is
942
00:42:37,230 --> 00:42:42,329
contacting another civilization well
943
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,800
this becomes more just tried which is
944
00:42:42,329 --> 00:42:45,029
that you ready for it I mean you're
945
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:48,269
really ready for it
946
00:42:45,030 --> 00:42:50,790
meaning that you are at such a level
947
00:42:48,269 --> 00:42:52,858
that it will not affect your social
948
00:42:50,789 --> 00:42:54,838
mores it will not affect your
949
00:42:52,858 --> 00:42:56,789
technological underpinnings because in
950
00:42:54,838 --> 00:42:58,858
fact the best way for aliens to
951
00:42:56,789 --> 00:43:00,838
completely screw us up is to land here
952
00:42:58,858 --> 00:43:03,750
and say here's the box for free energy
953
00:43:00,838 --> 00:43:05,489
go use it you know and all of a sudden
954
00:43:03,750 --> 00:43:06,989
everything here just falls apart you
955
00:43:05,489 --> 00:43:08,399
know why there have to be gasoline
956
00:43:06,989 --> 00:43:09,899
stations oh gee all those people just
957
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,400
lost their jobs and why I mean do you
958
00:43:09,900 --> 00:43:13,530
just go on and on and on and just the
959
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:16,769
whole places becomes a nightmare of you
960
00:43:13,530 --> 00:43:19,440
know so so you have to have a society
961
00:43:16,769 --> 00:43:21,150
that can handle this contact whatever
962
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,579
that means you know and I can just
963
00:43:21,150 --> 00:43:26,010
conceive of it my 21st century you know
964
00:43:23,579 --> 00:43:28,230
small human mind here which I don't
965
00:43:26,010 --> 00:43:30,630
think is big enough necessarily get get
966
00:43:28,230 --> 00:43:33,630
our arms around it but I do think we're
967
00:43:30,630 --> 00:43:36,470
a long way away from it but what would
968
00:43:33,630 --> 00:43:40,410
be the appropriate moment for contact
969
00:43:36,469 --> 00:43:42,419
and so that's another reason why I think
970
00:43:40,409 --> 00:43:45,000
I'm pessimistic I used about scientists
971
00:43:42,420 --> 00:43:47,280
and I think I'm realistic about whether
972
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:49,769
or not we can expect contact and my
973
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:51,510
realism says no actually it's an
974
00:43:49,769 --> 00:43:55,230
interesting interesting set of
975
00:43:51,510 --> 00:43:59,240
challenges I I personally am NOT this is
976
00:43:55,230 --> 00:44:01,920
worried about these sort of fierce
977
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,779
destructive aliens as a lot of people
978
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:08,088
are because I think what we're finding
979
00:44:03,780 --> 00:44:09,460
out through political science is that
980
00:44:08,088 --> 00:44:11,320
there
981
00:44:09,460 --> 00:44:13,900
a lot of forces that tend to put really
982
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:15,970
aggressive societies out of business and
983
00:44:13,900 --> 00:44:17,800
it's not a it's not a popular message
984
00:44:15,969 --> 00:44:20,500
when I talk to people who read the
985
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:22,740
morning paper it's less popular now with
986
00:44:20,500 --> 00:44:25,119
what's going on in the Mideast but
987
00:44:22,739 --> 00:44:27,309
there's a lot of growing evidence within
988
00:44:25,119 --> 00:44:29,260
within political science on the kinds of
989
00:44:27,309 --> 00:44:30,670
conditions that lead to peaceful
990
00:44:29,260 --> 00:44:33,880
coexistence and why they're likely to
991
00:44:30,670 --> 00:44:37,510
prevail and what I have to do as a
992
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:39,820
psychologist is if I'm trying to imagine
993
00:44:37,510 --> 00:44:43,510
what et might be like is while being
994
00:44:39,820 --> 00:44:45,760
being aware of the problem of
995
00:44:43,510 --> 00:44:48,339
anthropocentrism and anthropomorphism
996
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:49,990
and so forth this is to try to say okay
997
00:44:48,338 --> 00:44:52,088
now what's out there that seems to be
998
00:44:49,989 --> 00:44:55,149
pretty robust what is there out there
999
00:44:52,088 --> 00:44:57,730
that we've learned that applies in
1000
00:44:55,150 --> 00:44:59,410
different historical epics that cuts
1001
00:44:57,730 --> 00:45:01,000
across cultures and may cut across
1002
00:44:59,409 --> 00:45:04,059
species and those are the things that I
1003
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:06,900
see is the fairly useful hypotheses you
1004
00:45:04,059 --> 00:45:10,539
know to try to try to follow up such as
1005
00:45:06,900 --> 00:45:15,000
such as interstellar tit-for-tat or
1006
00:45:10,539 --> 00:45:18,309
negotiation that if in fact you find a
1007
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:21,219
communicative civilization and if in
1008
00:45:18,309 --> 00:45:23,858
fact there is a way to communicate in a
1009
00:45:21,219 --> 00:45:26,049
timeframe that's meaningful what you do
1010
00:45:23,858 --> 00:45:30,009
is you indicate an interest in
1011
00:45:26,050 --> 00:45:32,470
collaboration and getting along sharing
1012
00:45:30,010 --> 00:45:35,020
information and so forth but you don't
1013
00:45:32,469 --> 00:45:36,730
just sort of give it all away at once
1014
00:45:35,019 --> 00:45:39,039
you wait for some sort of reciprocal
1015
00:45:36,730 --> 00:45:41,170
concession it's known as the golden rule
1016
00:45:39,039 --> 00:45:44,079
it's known as tit-for-tat there's a
1017
00:45:41,170 --> 00:45:46,389
number of other names for it it appears
1018
00:45:44,079 --> 00:45:48,489
in science it appears in biology it
1019
00:45:46,389 --> 00:45:52,659
appears in social science it appears in
1020
00:45:48,489 --> 00:45:56,889
religion and given the universality of
1021
00:45:52,659 --> 00:45:59,519
the of the reciprocal relationships
1022
00:45:56,889 --> 00:46:03,838
that's one way to start thinking about
1023
00:45:59,519 --> 00:46:03,838
bargaining or interacting with et
1024
00:46:09,590 --> 00:46:11,650
you
1025
00:46:25,349 --> 00:46:34,239
[Music]
1026
00:46:45,750 --> 00:46:50,550
[Music]
1027
00:46:54,820 --> 00:46:56,880
you
1028
00:47:04,019 --> 00:47:06,079
you
78067
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