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[FAINT RHYTHMIC BEEPING]
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[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
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STEPHEN EMMOTT:
If we discovered tomorrow
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that there was an asteroid
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on collision course
with Earth...
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If we were able to calculate
that it was going to hit Earth
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on the third of June, 2080...
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MAN: [OVER RADIO]
Third of June, 2080...
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EMMOTT: And we knew
that its impact
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was going to wipe out
70% of all life on Earth...
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MAN: [OVER RADIO]
...wipe out... all life.
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EMMOTT:
Governments worldwide
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would marshal
the entire planet
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into unprecedented action.
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EMMOTT: We are now in almost
precisely that situation.
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Except that there isn't a date
and there isn't an asteroid.
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The problem is us.
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[INTERRUPTED RADIO SIGNAL]
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[SOFT MUSIC PLAYING]
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EMMOTT: The single most
important project
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in my lab is to understand
the future of life on Earth.
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We already know enough
to know that we're in trouble.
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I think it's important
that someone
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from in the science community
come out and say so.
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LUCAS JOPPA:
We really are just interested
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in trying to figure out
what are the impacts
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of humans on the planet,
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and can we make
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valuable predictions
about what's going to happen
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a day from now,
a year from now,
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but probably more importantly,
10, 20, 30 years from now.
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What does... What does that
predicted future mean
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for the fate
of the human species?
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MATTHEW SMITH: There is
an enormous problem looming.
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But it... The problems
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for the vast majority
of people now
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are still too far off
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to make you feel compelled
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to do something
about it tomorrow,
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and that is the real problem.
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It's kind of such
an obvious thing that people
don't think about it.
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Um, that, you know, all
the things that we throw away,
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all the things that we buy
and replace and, you know,
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that there is another
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seven billion people
doing this,
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and that's what
you don't think about.
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So I think it's more
"ignorance is bliss."
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DREW PURVES: We're just not
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heading in the right direction
at the moment.
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All the problems are heading
in the wrong direction
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and we're showing
almost no sign
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of actually
tackling these problems.
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PURVES: There are a lot
of people that feel that way,
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but a lot of them
won't say it publicly.
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Stephen is in many ways braver
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in terms of being willing
to express
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perhaps pessimistic views
very honestly
and in a very clear way.
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EMMOTT: I've simply
done my best
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to paint as accurate a picture
as possible
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of what's actually happening.
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But...
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I'm shocked at the number
of people
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who just do not want to hear
the truth.
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[INDISTINCT CHATTER]
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EMMOTT:
If the film acts as a catalyst
for a much broader debate...
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Brilliant.
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If not, I've failed.
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Earth is home
to millions of species.
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Yet just one dominates it.
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Us.
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Our cleverness,
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our inventiveness
and our activities
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have modified almost
every part of our planet.
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[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
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EMMOTT: In fact, we're having
a profound impact on it.
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[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
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EMMOTT: Indeed,
our cleverness,
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our inventiveness
and our activities
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are now the drivers
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of every global problem
we face.
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And every one
of these problems
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is increasing as we
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continue to grow
towards ten billion.
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[RUMBLING]
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I do just want to point out
that I'm a scientist,
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not an actor, as is
about to become
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-all too painfully obvious.
-[AUDIENCE CHUCKLING]
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I'm here because I believe
that we can rightly call
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the situation we're in
an "emergency."
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An unprecedented
planetary emergency.
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And this is what
I'm going to talk about.
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We humans emerged as a species
about 200,000 years ago.
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And in geological time
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that's really,
incredibly recent.
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Just over 10,000 years ago,
there were one million of us.
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Just over 200 years ago,
there were one billion of us.
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Fifty years ago, there were
three billion of us.
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There are now
over seven billion of us.
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00:10:09,747 --> 00:10:13,543
By 2050, your children,
or your children's children
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00:10:13,578 --> 00:10:14,993
will be living on a planet
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with at least
nine billion other people.
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And some time
later this century,
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there will be
ten billion of us.
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Possibly more.
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[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
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We got to where we are now
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through a number
of landmark events
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that have fundamentally shaped
the state of our planet.
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Their legacy will continue
to shape our future.
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So it's worth looking
at our growth
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through the lens
of these developments.
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One of the principal reasons
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we were able to grow
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was the invention
of agriculture
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over 10,000 years ago.
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00:11:05,147 --> 00:11:08,702
What has become known as
the "Agricultural Revolution"
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started with the domestication
of animals
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and the cultivation
of plants for crops.
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00:11:14,743 --> 00:11:19,126
And has developed into today's
intensive industrialization
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00:11:19,161 --> 00:11:22,060
of the entire
food production system.
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It enabled us to go
from hunter-gatherers
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to highly organized
producers of food.
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And allowed our population
to grow.
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And this was also the start
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of a fundamental
transformation
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of land use by humans.
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It's 1930, there are now
two billion of us.
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And the impact
of another revolution,
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the Industrial Revolution,
was being felt.
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The world was
being transformed
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by manufacturing,
technological innovation,
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new industrial processes,
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and transport.
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00:12:14,768 --> 00:12:17,426
But there's another story
here, too.
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The start
of our lethal addiction
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to oil, coal and gas
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as our principal source
of energy.
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Thirty years later,
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we've grown to three billion.
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It's 1960,
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and we're in the middle
of the Green Revolution.
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There were more of us,
far more of us,
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and we needed more food,
far more food.
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And the Green Revolution
provided this extra food.
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And it did so,
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through the use
of chemical herbicides,
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chemical pesticides,
and chemical fertilizers.
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And an unprecedented
expansion of land use
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for agriculture.
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But it was a revolution
that came at a cost
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in terms of loss of habitat,
pollution and overfishing.
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And it set in motion
the start of the degradation
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of entire ecosystems.
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[CHAINSAW BUZZES]
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By 1980, 20 years later,
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there were four billion of us.
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Green Revolution
had produced more food,
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much more food
and that made food cheaper.
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This meant we have more
money to spend.
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By the 1980s,
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we'd well and truly
started to spend
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all that money on "stuff."
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Televisions, video-recorders,
Walkmans,
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hairdryers, cars and clothes,
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as well as holidays.
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[SCREAMS]
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And at the center of this
astonishing spending spree,
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was an equally astonishing
growth of transport.
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In 1960,
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there were 100 million cars
on the world's roads.
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By 1980,
there were 300 million.
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In 1960, we flew
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100 billion
passenger kilometers.
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By 1980,
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we flew a thousand billion
passenger kilometers.
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And global shipping grew
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at a similarly
astonishing rate.
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All of the stuff
we were buying,
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plus all of the food
we were consuming,
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plus all of the raw
resources and materials
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required to make everything
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were increasingly
being shipped
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all around the world.
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Just 10 years later, in 1990,
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we'd grown to five billion.
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By this point,
the consequences of our growth
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were starting to show.
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Not least of these
was on water.
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Our demand for water,
not just the water we drank
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but the water we needed
for food production
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and to make all of the stuff
we were consuming,
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was starting to go through
the roof.
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And something was starting
to happen to water.
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We saw journalists
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reporting from Ethiopia
in 1984
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about a famine of so-called
biblical proportions
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caused by widespread drought.
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Ethiopia is turning
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into the worst human disaster
for a decade.
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A disaster begun by nature
but compounded by man.
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EMMOTT: That, it seemed,
was over there in Africa.
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Except that it wasn't
just over there.
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Unusual droughts,
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as well as unusual flooding,
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were increasing in Asia,
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00:16:27,124 --> 00:16:29,712
Australia, the US
and in Europe.
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Water, a vital resource
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we thought of as abundant
and free,
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was now something
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that had the potential
to be scarce.
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By 2000,
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we'd grown to six billion.
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And by this point,
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it had become abundantly clear
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00:17:05,196 --> 00:17:08,061
to just about everyone
in the scientific community
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that the climate was changing
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and that we had a serious
problem on our hands.
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[RADIO OPERATOR
SPEAKING INDISTINCTLY]
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Now, obviously climate
is not the same as weather,
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but climate is one of Earth's
fundamental
life support systems,
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00:17:34,812 --> 00:17:37,366
one that determines
whether or not
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00:17:37,401 --> 00:17:39,334
we're able to live
on this planet.
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00:17:40,990 --> 00:17:43,510
It's generated
by four components,
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the atmosphere,
the air that we breathe,
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00:17:46,237 --> 00:17:49,068
hydrosphere, planet's water,
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00:17:49,102 --> 00:17:50,310
cryosphere,
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00:17:50,345 --> 00:17:52,450
ice sheets and glaciers,
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00:17:52,485 --> 00:17:53,934
and the biosphere,
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00:17:53,969 --> 00:17:55,419
the planet's
plants and animals.
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And by now, our activities
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00:18:01,356 --> 00:18:02,943
had started to modify
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00:18:02,978 --> 00:18:06,085
every single one
of these components.
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00:18:07,500 --> 00:18:10,019
Our increasing CO2 emissions
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00:18:10,054 --> 00:18:13,022
had started to modify
our atmosphere.
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00:18:13,057 --> 00:18:15,094
And our increasing water use
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00:18:15,128 --> 00:18:17,820
had started to modify
our hydrosphere.
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00:18:19,995 --> 00:18:23,688
Rising atmospheric
and sea temperatures
238
00:18:23,723 --> 00:18:25,794
had started to modify
the cryosphere,
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00:18:27,036 --> 00:18:29,522
most notably,
an unexpected loss
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00:18:29,556 --> 00:18:31,558
of Greenland and Arctic ice.
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00:18:43,846 --> 00:18:45,848
And our increasing use of land
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00:18:45,883 --> 00:18:48,299
for agriculture, cities,
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00:18:48,334 --> 00:18:50,888
roads, mining,
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00:18:50,922 --> 00:18:53,615
as well as
all pollution we were creating
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00:18:53,649 --> 00:18:56,135
had started to modify
our biosphere.
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00:19:01,968 --> 00:19:03,797
Or to put it another way,
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00:19:03,832 --> 00:19:06,904
we had started to change
our climate.
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00:19:22,471 --> 00:19:23,990
There are now
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00:19:24,024 --> 00:19:27,166
over seven billion of us.
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00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:28,650
And as we continue to grow,
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00:19:28,684 --> 00:19:32,136
we continue to increase
our need
252
00:19:32,171 --> 00:19:34,587
for more water, more food,
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00:19:34,621 --> 00:19:36,968
more land, and more energy.
254
00:19:38,522 --> 00:19:40,040
As a result,
255
00:19:40,075 --> 00:19:42,836
our activities
are now fundamentally
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00:19:42,871 --> 00:19:48,635
interacting with and altering
the complex system
we live on...
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00:19:48,670 --> 00:19:49,671
Earth.
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00:19:53,537 --> 00:19:56,367
We're spending
8 billion euros
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at CERN
260
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,613
to discover evidence
of a particle
261
00:20:00,647 --> 00:20:03,098
called the Higgs boson,
262
00:20:03,132 --> 00:20:06,688
to explain mass
and provide a thumbs up
263
00:20:06,722 --> 00:20:10,381
for what's called
the Standard Model
of particle physics.
264
00:20:11,796 --> 00:20:13,936
And CERN's physicists
265
00:20:13,971 --> 00:20:15,524
are keen to tell us
266
00:20:15,559 --> 00:20:20,598
that it's the biggest,
most important experiment,
on Earth.
267
00:20:22,393 --> 00:20:24,878
It isn't.
268
00:20:24,913 --> 00:20:29,228
The biggest,
most important experiment
on Earth,
269
00:20:29,262 --> 00:20:34,198
is the one
we're all conducting
right now on Earth itself.
270
00:20:49,627 --> 00:20:53,493
Just want to take us on a tour
of what's happening right now.
271
00:20:54,805 --> 00:20:56,531
It turns out that doing so
272
00:20:56,565 --> 00:20:59,292
is important to understanding
where we're heading.
273
00:21:05,471 --> 00:21:08,405
Right now, nearly 40%
274
00:21:08,439 --> 00:21:11,408
of all the ice-free land
on Earth
275
00:21:11,442 --> 00:21:13,720
is being used
for food production.
276
00:21:15,653 --> 00:21:17,586
That leaves deserts,
277
00:21:17,621 --> 00:21:19,381
towns and cities,
278
00:21:19,416 --> 00:21:23,212
land used for the mining
and extraction of Earth's
279
00:21:23,247 --> 00:21:25,560
finite resources,
280
00:21:25,594 --> 00:21:28,563
protected areas
such as national parks,
281
00:21:28,597 --> 00:21:30,599
and the world's
remaining forests.
282
00:21:33,430 --> 00:21:36,329
And let's
put that into context.
283
00:21:36,364 --> 00:21:38,020
Demand for food
284
00:21:38,055 --> 00:21:40,816
is said to double by 2050,
285
00:21:40,851 --> 00:21:42,991
increasing demand
for more land.
286
00:21:45,131 --> 00:21:48,652
So no wonder that there's
a remarkable land grab
287
00:21:48,686 --> 00:21:50,032
underway right now.
288
00:21:52,449 --> 00:21:54,382
In the past 13 years,
289
00:21:54,416 --> 00:21:57,212
there have been thousands
of land deals
290
00:21:57,246 --> 00:22:00,215
involving governments
and corporations
291
00:22:00,249 --> 00:22:02,631
buying up lots of land
292
00:22:02,666 --> 00:22:05,047
in places
such as sub-Saharan Africa,
293
00:22:05,082 --> 00:22:07,049
Asia and South America.
294
00:22:08,257 --> 00:22:11,951
Around 50 million
hectares of land
295
00:22:11,985 --> 00:22:13,366
are being traded.
296
00:22:13,401 --> 00:22:16,162
That's an area
approaching half the size
297
00:22:16,196 --> 00:22:17,922
of Western Europe,
298
00:22:17,957 --> 00:22:20,062
bought and sold,
299
00:22:20,097 --> 00:22:23,272
in just the past 13 years.
300
00:22:26,034 --> 00:22:29,624
But that's
not the most important story.
301
00:22:29,658 --> 00:22:32,834
Land use, land degradation,
302
00:22:32,868 --> 00:22:36,078
loss of habitat,
and pollution run-off
303
00:22:36,113 --> 00:22:39,565
are now causing
significant species loss.
304
00:22:41,429 --> 00:22:42,637
The International Union
305
00:22:42,671 --> 00:22:44,190
for the Conservation
of Nature,
306
00:22:44,224 --> 00:22:46,019
IUCN,
307
00:22:46,054 --> 00:22:49,747
the world's leading authority
on biodiversity,
308
00:22:49,782 --> 00:22:53,233
estimates almost 31%
309
00:22:53,268 --> 00:22:55,166
of all amphibians,
310
00:22:55,201 --> 00:22:58,653
21% of all mammals,
311
00:22:58,687 --> 00:23:02,726
and 13% of all birds
312
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,384
are threatened
with extinction.
313
00:24:05,167 --> 00:24:06,893
We're now, almost certainly,
314
00:24:06,928 --> 00:24:11,519
starting to lose species
at a rate at least
a thousand times greater
315
00:24:11,553 --> 00:24:15,177
than we would expect
from ordinary background
natural processes.
316
00:24:17,870 --> 00:24:20,079
Indeed, we may well
have embarked
317
00:24:20,113 --> 00:24:22,461
on the greatest
mass extinction
318
00:24:22,495 --> 00:24:24,186
of life on Earth
319
00:24:24,221 --> 00:24:26,534
since the event
that wiped out dinosaurs
320
00:24:26,568 --> 00:24:28,777
65 million years ago.
321
00:25:16,411 --> 00:25:18,551
Now, when we think
about loss of species,
322
00:25:18,586 --> 00:25:21,554
some of us thinks
about images of polar bears
323
00:25:21,589 --> 00:25:23,556
on thin bits of ice
looking as though,
324
00:25:23,591 --> 00:25:25,213
"This is it."
325
00:25:25,247 --> 00:25:26,594
But losing polar bears
326
00:25:26,628 --> 00:25:28,837
is just the tip
of the iceberg.
327
00:25:28,872 --> 00:25:30,114
No pun, quite intended.
328
00:25:30,149 --> 00:25:31,150
[SCATTERED LAUGHTER]
329
00:25:32,979 --> 00:25:34,878
What we need to be
a lot more concerned about
330
00:25:34,912 --> 00:25:37,536
is the loss
of biodiversity itself.
331
00:25:38,709 --> 00:25:41,781
'Cause it turns out
that biological diversity
332
00:25:41,816 --> 00:25:44,059
is not just a nice thing
to have.
333
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,304
It's the very diversity
334
00:25:47,338 --> 00:25:49,651
of life on Earth itself,
335
00:25:49,686 --> 00:25:52,585
the diversity
that we are eroding,
336
00:25:52,620 --> 00:25:57,314
which provides the things
that we rely on
for free,
337
00:25:57,348 --> 00:25:59,972
like our water, our food,
338
00:26:00,006 --> 00:26:01,421
and our climate.
339
00:26:03,631 --> 00:26:07,013
The loss of biodiversity
on a current scale,
340
00:26:07,048 --> 00:26:08,774
is inevitably going to mean
341
00:26:08,808 --> 00:26:13,779
degradation of these vital
ecosystem services,
as they're called.
342
00:26:13,813 --> 00:26:16,713
Services
that we all depend upon.
343
00:26:20,648 --> 00:26:24,030
The loss
of these ecosystem services
344
00:26:24,065 --> 00:26:27,586
poses a very real threat
to our survival.
345
00:26:37,043 --> 00:26:39,390
You might not be surprised
to learn
346
00:26:39,425 --> 00:26:40,875
that food demand
is increasing.
347
00:26:42,704 --> 00:26:44,361
What might be surprising
348
00:26:44,395 --> 00:26:46,259
is that food demand
is increasing
349
00:26:46,294 --> 00:26:48,296
faster than even
population growth.
350
00:26:50,643 --> 00:26:51,955
Why?
351
00:26:51,989 --> 00:26:53,370
First,
352
00:26:53,404 --> 00:26:56,580
is as more of us get richer,
or are lifted out of poverty,
353
00:26:56,615 --> 00:26:58,927
we consume more calories,
354
00:26:58,962 --> 00:27:00,688
we simply eat more food.
355
00:27:02,275 --> 00:27:06,003
Second, is that more of us
are not only consuming more,
356
00:27:06,038 --> 00:27:08,212
we're consuming differently,
357
00:27:08,247 --> 00:27:11,112
and in particular,
we're consuming more meat.
358
00:27:14,287 --> 00:27:15,944
More importantly though,
359
00:27:15,979 --> 00:27:19,430
the entire
global food production system
360
00:27:19,465 --> 00:27:23,158
is dependent
on a stable climate.
361
00:27:23,193 --> 00:27:24,608
And right now,
362
00:27:24,643 --> 00:27:27,335
the climate
is anything but stable.
363
00:27:27,369 --> 00:27:31,339
And is set to become
more and more unstable
364
00:27:31,373 --> 00:27:33,928
every decade this century.
365
00:27:54,845 --> 00:27:56,502
Think about this.
366
00:27:57,503 --> 00:27:59,539
Food production accounts
for nearly
367
00:27:59,574 --> 00:28:02,750
30% of all greenhouse gases
368
00:28:02,784 --> 00:28:04,717
produced by human activity.
369
00:28:04,752 --> 00:28:07,962
That's more than manufacturing
or transport.
370
00:28:09,411 --> 00:28:11,862
Producing more food itself
371
00:28:11,897 --> 00:28:14,416
is going
to accelerate climate change.
372
00:28:25,117 --> 00:28:26,843
But what's certainly true,
373
00:28:26,877 --> 00:28:30,363
is that we really do
need a food revolution.
374
00:28:30,398 --> 00:28:31,744
Because without one,
375
00:28:31,779 --> 00:28:33,781
billions of us
are going to starve.
376
00:28:36,300 --> 00:28:38,406
Our most recent
food revolution
377
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,340
started in the 1950s.
378
00:28:41,374 --> 00:28:43,791
It's known
as the Green Revolution.
379
00:28:45,275 --> 00:28:47,553
But it has come at a cost.
380
00:28:48,934 --> 00:28:50,832
The first Green Revolution
381
00:28:50,867 --> 00:28:53,076
focused on increasing
crop yield.
382
00:28:54,353 --> 00:28:56,976
But to increase yield,
we had to introduce
383
00:28:57,011 --> 00:28:59,772
chemical fertilizers
384
00:28:59,807 --> 00:29:01,325
and breed shorter crops.
385
00:29:03,258 --> 00:29:05,226
In breeding shorter crops,
386
00:29:05,260 --> 00:29:06,952
we then had to compensate
387
00:29:06,986 --> 00:29:10,231
by deploying
chemical herbicides
388
00:29:10,265 --> 00:29:11,611
to kill the weeds
389
00:29:11,646 --> 00:29:13,959
that would have otherwise
have outcompeted the crops
390
00:29:13,993 --> 00:29:15,408
for light.
391
00:29:16,824 --> 00:29:18,860
We also bred out crops'
392
00:29:18,895 --> 00:29:22,070
natural defenses to pests,
393
00:29:22,105 --> 00:29:25,177
because plants'
natural defenses to pests
394
00:29:25,211 --> 00:29:26,730
slowed their rate of growth.
395
00:29:28,421 --> 00:29:30,527
But we then had to
compensate for this
396
00:29:30,561 --> 00:29:32,771
by introducing
chemical pesticides.
397
00:29:34,876 --> 00:29:38,500
We became reliant
upon an agricultural system
398
00:29:38,535 --> 00:29:41,745
that was ludicrously
profligate with water.
399
00:29:45,059 --> 00:29:48,890
The Green Revolution
turns out not to be a story
400
00:29:48,925 --> 00:29:51,410
about clever people
who worked out
401
00:29:51,444 --> 00:29:53,619
how to get more food
from our fields.
402
00:29:54,723 --> 00:29:57,726
The truth is
the Green Revolution
403
00:29:57,761 --> 00:30:00,419
is a story
about how clever people
404
00:30:00,453 --> 00:30:03,491
thought it was
a good idea to buy
405
00:30:03,525 --> 00:30:06,770
every extra unit of food
406
00:30:06,805 --> 00:30:08,185
through energy and chemicals.
407
00:30:10,878 --> 00:30:13,156
We do need a food revolution.
408
00:30:13,190 --> 00:30:14,847
But it's one that will require
409
00:30:14,882 --> 00:30:17,401
a radically
new kind of science.
410
00:30:17,436 --> 00:30:20,128
A science that enables us
to no less
411
00:30:20,163 --> 00:30:22,544
redesign the world's crops
412
00:30:22,579 --> 00:30:24,408
for the world
that we will be living in.
413
00:30:34,591 --> 00:30:37,559
Right now,
something like
a billion people
414
00:30:37,594 --> 00:30:39,907
are living in conditions
of water shortage.
415
00:30:41,667 --> 00:30:43,703
Yet our consumption of water
416
00:30:43,738 --> 00:30:45,188
just continues to increase.
417
00:30:46,499 --> 00:30:48,674
A staggering 70%
418
00:30:48,708 --> 00:30:52,229
of all available fresh water
on Earth
419
00:30:52,264 --> 00:30:55,198
is being used for agriculture.
420
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:19,015
And I want to focus
on just one important aspect
421
00:31:19,049 --> 00:31:21,258
of increasing water use.
422
00:31:21,949 --> 00:31:23,812
Hidden water.
423
00:31:23,847 --> 00:31:25,953
Hidden water is water used
424
00:31:25,987 --> 00:31:28,852
to produce things we consume,
but typically
425
00:31:28,887 --> 00:31:31,406
do not think
of as containing water.
426
00:31:32,545 --> 00:31:34,858
So just chickens, beef,
427
00:31:34,893 --> 00:31:37,102
cotton, cars, chocolates,
428
00:31:37,136 --> 00:31:39,000
and even mobile phones.
429
00:31:41,969 --> 00:31:46,974
For example, it takes around
3,000 liters of water
430
00:31:47,008 --> 00:31:49,838
to produce a burger.
431
00:31:51,185 --> 00:31:53,808
Over 100 billion burgers
432
00:31:53,842 --> 00:31:57,467
are likely to be consumed
this year globally.
433
00:31:57,501 --> 00:32:02,299
That's 300 trillion
liters of water
434
00:32:02,334 --> 00:32:05,613
to produce burgers
in one year.
435
00:32:08,754 --> 00:32:13,793
It takes around 9,000
liters of water
to produce a chicken.
436
00:32:15,002 --> 00:32:19,040
We'll probably
consume 80 billion chickens
437
00:32:19,075 --> 00:32:20,593
this year.
438
00:32:20,628 --> 00:32:26,323
That's an astonishing
700 trillion liters of water
439
00:32:26,358 --> 00:32:29,499
on chickens in just one year.
440
00:32:33,813 --> 00:32:38,059
And it takes approximately
2,700 liters of water
441
00:32:38,094 --> 00:32:40,648
to produce a single bar
of chocolate.
442
00:32:42,270 --> 00:32:43,892
This should
surely be something
443
00:32:43,927 --> 00:32:46,309
to think about while you're
curled up on your sofa
444
00:32:46,343 --> 00:32:48,345
eating one in your pajamas.
445
00:32:49,933 --> 00:32:52,418
But I've got bad news
about pajamas.
446
00:32:52,453 --> 00:32:54,110
[AUDIENCE LAUGHING]
447
00:32:54,144 --> 00:32:56,112
Because your cotton pajamas
448
00:32:56,146 --> 00:32:59,805
takes something
like 9,000 liters of water
to produce.
449
00:33:02,497 --> 00:33:04,603
And irony of ironies,
it takes something like
450
00:33:04,637 --> 00:33:06,294
four liters of water
451
00:33:06,329 --> 00:33:08,779
to produce a one-liter plastic
bottle of water.
452
00:33:12,921 --> 00:33:14,371
In short,
453
00:33:14,406 --> 00:33:16,787
we're consuming water
like food
454
00:33:16,822 --> 00:33:19,687
at a rate which is completely
unsustainable.
455
00:33:32,251 --> 00:33:33,908
The term "peak oil"
456
00:33:33,942 --> 00:33:36,152
is an increasingly
familiar one.
457
00:33:36,186 --> 00:33:40,087
It refers to the point at
which maximum possible
oil extraction is reached,
458
00:33:40,121 --> 00:33:41,674
beyond which it starts
to decline.
459
00:33:43,090 --> 00:33:44,919
And a generally accepted claim
460
00:33:44,953 --> 00:33:46,990
is that we've reached
peak oil,
461
00:33:47,025 --> 00:33:49,199
and that we're heading
for some global energy crisis
462
00:33:49,234 --> 00:33:51,753
in the next few decades
as we start to run out.
463
00:33:53,790 --> 00:33:55,757
But it's almost certainly
not true.
464
00:33:57,069 --> 00:34:02,074
There are
enormous reserves of oil,
coal and gas left.
465
00:34:02,109 --> 00:34:04,732
And every year
we're discovering significant
466
00:34:04,766 --> 00:34:07,838
new reserves
from Brazil to the Arctic.
467
00:34:24,027 --> 00:34:25,304
And on top of that,
468
00:34:25,339 --> 00:34:29,412
there's the so-called
energy game-changing
revolution
469
00:34:29,446 --> 00:34:31,103
that is fracking.
470
00:34:31,138 --> 00:34:32,587
So I'm not worried
471
00:34:32,622 --> 00:34:34,762
about us
running out of fossil fuels,
472
00:34:34,796 --> 00:34:38,559
I'm worried that we're going
to continue to use them.
473
00:34:38,593 --> 00:34:41,286
'Cause doing so
is simply going to accelerate
474
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,152
our climate problem
even further.
475
00:34:45,186 --> 00:34:46,463
But of course,
476
00:34:46,498 --> 00:34:48,086
that's precisely
what we're doing.
477
00:34:50,018 --> 00:34:52,538
REX TILLERSON:
It's very nice to
see you again.
478
00:34:54,368 --> 00:34:57,957
And it is a historic day
for Exxon Mobil and Russia.
479
00:34:57,992 --> 00:35:00,788
EMMOTT:
Take, for example, Exxon,
480
00:35:00,822 --> 00:35:03,066
a US oil giant.
481
00:35:03,101 --> 00:35:07,864
In 2012,
Exxon signed a deal
with Russia
482
00:35:07,898 --> 00:35:11,902
to invest up to $500 billion.
483
00:35:13,145 --> 00:35:15,182
$500 billion
484
00:35:15,216 --> 00:35:17,874
in oil and gas exploration
485
00:35:17,908 --> 00:35:20,359
and production in the Arctic.
486
00:35:30,369 --> 00:35:31,646
Why?
487
00:35:31,681 --> 00:35:35,133
Because climate change
is now making oil and gas
488
00:35:35,167 --> 00:35:37,376
exploration production
in the Arctic
489
00:35:37,411 --> 00:35:39,275
economically viable
490
00:35:39,309 --> 00:35:41,691
because the Arctic
is no longer covered
491
00:35:41,725 --> 00:35:43,831
in thick ice all year round.
492
00:36:06,957 --> 00:36:08,545
It's worth reminding ourselves
that our stuff
493
00:36:08,580 --> 00:36:13,930
does not actually
come from Tesco, Amazon,
Wal-Mart, or Best Buy.
494
00:36:13,964 --> 00:36:16,104
Our stuff comes from China,
495
00:36:16,139 --> 00:36:20,488
Morocco, Brazil,
Spain, South Korea,
496
00:36:20,523 --> 00:36:22,594
whether it is asparagus,
pajamas,
497
00:36:22,628 --> 00:36:24,009
or consumer electronics.
498
00:36:24,975 --> 00:36:27,426
[SHIP HORN BLOWING]
499
00:36:27,461 --> 00:36:31,396
EMMOTT: Something like
500 million containers
500
00:36:31,430 --> 00:36:32,535
of our stuff.
501
00:36:32,569 --> 00:36:35,227
Stuff that we love to consume.
502
00:36:35,262 --> 00:36:38,403
Plus billions of tons
of raw materials,
503
00:36:38,437 --> 00:36:42,303
metals, phosphates, grain,
oil, coal and gas,
504
00:36:42,338 --> 00:36:44,340
will be handled
and transported
505
00:36:44,374 --> 00:36:46,204
all around the world
this year.
506
00:37:00,045 --> 00:37:02,772
There are now
over a billion motor vehicles
507
00:37:02,806 --> 00:37:04,429
on our roads,
508
00:37:04,463 --> 00:37:06,500
and more than
two billion motor vehicles
509
00:37:06,534 --> 00:37:08,985
have been produced since 1900.
510
00:37:11,021 --> 00:37:13,783
Now, car companies
keep telling us
511
00:37:13,817 --> 00:37:19,029
that we can buy a car
for as little as £8,000.
512
00:37:19,064 --> 00:37:22,619
But that's not what
a car really costs.
513
00:37:29,799 --> 00:37:34,079
The iron ore forming
the basis of the car's body
has to be mined,
514
00:37:34,113 --> 00:37:35,805
probably somewhere
like Australia.
515
00:37:38,048 --> 00:37:41,742
It's then transported
on a very large,
very polluting ship
516
00:37:41,776 --> 00:37:45,021
to somewhere like Brazil,
Indonesia, France
517
00:37:45,055 --> 00:37:46,781
and made into steel.
518
00:37:46,816 --> 00:37:50,233
That steel is then transported
on a very large,
519
00:37:50,268 --> 00:37:52,373
very polluting ship
to a car factory
520
00:37:52,408 --> 00:37:54,030
in, say, Germany.
521
00:37:56,515 --> 00:37:58,517
The tires
have to be manufactured
522
00:37:58,552 --> 00:38:00,312
and the rubber
will have been produced
523
00:38:00,347 --> 00:38:03,591
in Malaysia, Thailand
or Indonesia.
524
00:38:03,626 --> 00:38:05,938
That rubber
then has to be shipped
525
00:38:05,973 --> 00:38:07,871
to a country
that manufactures tires,
526
00:38:07,906 --> 00:38:10,288
then those tires
shipped to a car factory.
527
00:38:11,841 --> 00:38:13,739
The plastic for the dashboard
528
00:38:13,774 --> 00:38:16,155
starts out
as oil in the ground.
529
00:38:16,190 --> 00:38:18,261
That oil has to extracted,
530
00:38:18,296 --> 00:38:19,745
exported
531
00:38:19,780 --> 00:38:21,299
to be made into plastic.
532
00:38:22,714 --> 00:38:25,682
Then that plastic
gets transported
to a car factory
533
00:38:25,717 --> 00:38:27,443
to be turned into a dashboard.
534
00:38:29,997 --> 00:38:32,102
The lead in the battery
has to be mined,
535
00:38:33,380 --> 00:38:35,658
and then shipped
to be made into batteries,
536
00:38:35,692 --> 00:38:38,039
then those batteries
are then shipped
537
00:38:38,074 --> 00:38:41,491
to car factories in Germany,
US or elsewhere.
538
00:38:43,355 --> 00:38:48,360
And all of this
is before a single car
is even assembled.
539
00:38:48,395 --> 00:38:51,121
Let alone,
before the car itself
540
00:38:51,156 --> 00:38:54,608
is then transported
so that you can buy it.
541
00:38:56,403 --> 00:38:58,957
And all that
is before you've put
542
00:38:58,991 --> 00:39:02,340
a single liter of petrol
in your car to make
543
00:39:02,374 --> 00:39:05,653
your own little contribution
to climate change.
544
00:39:07,690 --> 00:39:10,037
What's the real cost
of the car?
545
00:39:10,071 --> 00:39:11,210
An absolute fortune.
546
00:39:12,073 --> 00:39:13,316
But you don't have to pay it.
547
00:39:14,352 --> 00:39:16,319
Not yet.
548
00:39:16,354 --> 00:39:19,978
That is the cost
of environmental degradation,
549
00:39:20,012 --> 00:39:23,947
pollution from mining,
industrial processes
and transportation.
550
00:39:25,293 --> 00:39:27,606
The resulting degradation
of ecosystems
551
00:39:28,331 --> 00:39:30,471
and climate change.
552
00:39:30,506 --> 00:39:34,302
What economists
like to formally call
"externalities."
553
00:39:35,959 --> 00:39:39,377
But this cost,
the real cost of a car
554
00:39:39,411 --> 00:39:40,964
will have to be paid for.
555
00:39:41,448 --> 00:39:42,414
Maybe by you,
556
00:39:43,208 --> 00:39:44,865
more likely by your children.
557
00:39:48,765 --> 00:39:51,389
[DRAMATIC MUSIC PLAYING]
558
00:40:05,817 --> 00:40:07,335
EMMOTT: Finally, let's look
559
00:40:07,370 --> 00:40:09,234
at the state of the climate
right now.
560
00:40:29,185 --> 00:40:31,290
In the last 30 years,
561
00:40:31,325 --> 00:40:34,432
the volume
of summer Arctic sea ice
562
00:40:34,466 --> 00:40:36,295
has shrunk by 70%.
563
00:40:37,814 --> 00:40:40,645
Greenland and Antarctica
are losing between
564
00:40:40,679 --> 00:40:46,305
300 and 600 billion tons
of ice per year into the sea.
565
00:40:48,204 --> 00:40:49,895
And to make matters worse,
566
00:40:49,930 --> 00:40:52,380
probably much worse,
567
00:40:52,415 --> 00:40:54,313
melting Arctic ice
568
00:40:55,107 --> 00:40:56,764
caused by our activities
569
00:40:57,696 --> 00:40:59,733
is now causing the release
570
00:40:59,767 --> 00:41:02,321
of significant quantities
of methane.
571
00:41:04,358 --> 00:41:05,980
At the end of 2011,
572
00:41:06,015 --> 00:41:09,432
scientists from
the International Arctic
Research Center
573
00:41:09,467 --> 00:41:11,883
discovered for the first time
574
00:41:11,917 --> 00:41:15,680
vast fields containing
over 100 plumes of methane,
575
00:41:15,714 --> 00:41:17,992
some over
a kilometer in diameter.
576
00:41:24,792 --> 00:41:27,864
Methane is
many times more potent
a greenhouse gas
577
00:41:27,899 --> 00:41:30,488
-than carbon dioxide.
-[GURGLING]
578
00:41:31,178 --> 00:41:33,560
And if, as seems likely,
579
00:41:33,594 --> 00:41:38,047
melting sea ice is now causing
the release of this methane,
580
00:41:38,081 --> 00:41:41,429
it will go on for decades,
possibly centuries,
581
00:41:41,464 --> 00:41:43,984
and we'll be
completely unable to stop it.
582
00:41:47,159 --> 00:41:51,923
It has every potential
to accelerate climate change
even faster.
583
00:41:57,653 --> 00:42:00,966
This could be
very big trouble
584
00:42:01,001 --> 00:42:02,450
on a very big scale.
585
00:42:06,351 --> 00:42:09,734
Almost all of the data that
are emerging from the Arctic
586
00:42:09,768 --> 00:42:11,252
are worse.
587
00:42:11,287 --> 00:42:13,807
Far worse
than even the most pessimistic
588
00:42:13,841 --> 00:42:18,225
scientific predictions
of even just 10 years ago.
589
00:42:24,749 --> 00:42:26,026
And think about this.
590
00:42:26,060 --> 00:42:30,306
Right now, every leaf
on every tree on Earth
591
00:42:30,340 --> 00:42:33,378
is experiencing
a level of carbon dioxide
592
00:42:33,412 --> 00:42:35,932
that has not been
witnessed on this planet
593
00:42:35,967 --> 00:42:37,209
for millions of years.
594
00:42:41,351 --> 00:42:44,389
And how the planet's plants
will respond to this
595
00:42:44,423 --> 00:42:46,667
we simply
don't fully understand.
596
00:42:48,980 --> 00:42:50,291
But it's very important.
597
00:42:51,292 --> 00:42:53,122
Because the planet's plants
598
00:42:53,156 --> 00:42:55,642
are a fundamental component
599
00:42:55,676 --> 00:42:58,886
of what's called
the "global carbon cycle."
600
00:43:01,889 --> 00:43:06,618
The global carbon cycle
processes around 200 gigatons
601
00:43:06,653 --> 00:43:09,552
of carbon every year.
602
00:43:09,587 --> 00:43:13,038
And it does
all seven billion of us
603
00:43:13,073 --> 00:43:17,698
an enormous favor
by slowing down climate change
604
00:43:17,733 --> 00:43:21,737
because the planet's plants,
soils and oceans
605
00:43:21,771 --> 00:43:25,948
absorb around 50%
of our CO2 emissions.
606
00:43:28,985 --> 00:43:32,989
But this favor might be
about to come to an end
607
00:43:33,024 --> 00:43:35,992
because we are
fundamentally modifying
608
00:43:36,027 --> 00:43:38,339
every single component
609
00:43:38,374 --> 00:43:41,549
of the global carbon cycle
right now
610
00:43:41,584 --> 00:43:46,244
through deforestation,
urbanization, agriculture
611
00:43:46,278 --> 00:43:50,697
and changes to the chemical
and ecological composition
of the planet's oceans.
612
00:43:51,629 --> 00:43:54,942
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
613
00:43:54,977 --> 00:43:58,670
EMMOTT: Moreover, the CO2
that the oceans are absorbing
614
00:43:58,705 --> 00:44:00,914
is now having a serious impact
615
00:44:00,948 --> 00:44:04,538
in terms
of ocean acidification
and deoxygenation.
616
00:44:10,544 --> 00:44:12,166
The science
617
00:44:12,201 --> 00:44:14,962
now points
to the inescapable fact
618
00:44:14,997 --> 00:44:16,205
that we are in trouble.
619
00:44:16,826 --> 00:44:18,000
Serious trouble.
620
00:44:19,933 --> 00:44:24,662
And right now we're heading
into completely
uncharted territory
621
00:44:25,283 --> 00:44:27,354
as we continue to grow
622
00:44:27,388 --> 00:44:28,666
towards ten billion.
623
00:44:48,755 --> 00:44:51,896
But one thing
that is entirely predictable
624
00:44:51,930 --> 00:44:54,484
is that things
are going to get worse.
625
00:45:21,235 --> 00:45:24,100
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
626
00:45:34,179 --> 00:45:36,492
EMMOTT: What kind of
challenges do we face
627
00:45:36,526 --> 00:45:39,357
over the coming decades
as a consequence
628
00:45:39,391 --> 00:45:41,946
of our growing population
and our activities?
629
00:45:50,195 --> 00:45:52,266
We are already using
630
00:45:52,301 --> 00:45:57,478
nearly 40% of land on Earth
for food.
631
00:45:57,513 --> 00:46:01,862
The demand for food
is set to double by 2050.
632
00:46:03,484 --> 00:46:05,935
This means
the pressure to clear
633
00:46:05,970 --> 00:46:08,696
many of the world's
remaining forests
634
00:46:08,731 --> 00:46:11,665
for human use
looks set to intensify.
635
00:46:13,667 --> 00:46:14,737
Why?
636
00:46:14,772 --> 00:46:18,430
Because this is
the only land available
637
00:46:18,465 --> 00:46:21,537
for cheaply
expanding agriculture
638
00:46:21,571 --> 00:46:23,539
at the scale that we need.
639
00:46:24,885 --> 00:46:26,542
By 2050,
640
00:46:26,576 --> 00:46:32,755
it's quite possible that some
one billion hectares of land
could be cleared
641
00:46:32,790 --> 00:46:34,101
to meet rising food demand.
642
00:46:35,482 --> 00:46:38,899
This is an area larger than
the United States of America.
643
00:46:39,762 --> 00:46:42,109
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
644
00:46:47,011 --> 00:46:49,185
[FIRE BLAZING]
645
00:47:18,559 --> 00:47:23,771
EMMOTT: Meanwhile, by 2050,
70% of us are going
to be living in cities.
646
00:47:29,329 --> 00:47:32,953
Just worth mentioning.
Of the 19 Brazilian cities
647
00:47:32,988 --> 00:47:36,405
that have doubled
in population and size
648
00:47:36,439 --> 00:47:38,234
in the last 10 years,
649
00:47:38,269 --> 00:47:40,064
10 are in the Amazon.
650
00:47:55,907 --> 00:47:57,944
It is becoming apparent
651
00:47:57,978 --> 00:48:02,983
that there is no known way
of feeding a population
of ten billion people
652
00:48:03,018 --> 00:48:04,916
with our
current agricultural system
653
00:48:04,951 --> 00:48:07,229
and our
current rates of consumption.
654
00:48:08,644 --> 00:48:11,681
Because global
agricultural productivity
655
00:48:11,716 --> 00:48:14,374
actually looks set to decline,
656
00:48:14,408 --> 00:48:16,307
possibly sharply,
657
00:48:16,341 --> 00:48:17,618
over the coming decades.
658
00:48:18,999 --> 00:48:20,794
There are
three reasons for this.
659
00:48:22,175 --> 00:48:24,315
The first is climate change.
660
00:48:26,489 --> 00:48:30,459
As global average temperature
continues to increase,
661
00:48:30,493 --> 00:48:34,325
food productivity is actually
predicted to decline.
662
00:48:37,845 --> 00:48:40,745
Some of the world's
most important crops
663
00:48:40,779 --> 00:48:43,230
such as wheat
could be worst affected.
664
00:48:47,407 --> 00:48:49,374
And increasing frequency
and severity
665
00:48:49,409 --> 00:48:52,619
of extreme weather events
associated with climate change
666
00:48:52,653 --> 00:48:55,656
will increase
the frequency and severity
667
00:48:55,691 --> 00:48:58,728
with which we lose crops
around the world.
668
00:49:00,627 --> 00:49:04,286
The second reason
is soil degradation
and desertification.
669
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:07,151
Both of which are increasing
670
00:49:07,185 --> 00:49:10,188
as a result
of water run-off, pollution,
671
00:49:10,223 --> 00:49:13,640
intensified agricultural
practices and overgrazing.
672
00:49:16,125 --> 00:49:18,679
And the third reason
is water stress
673
00:49:18,714 --> 00:49:21,406
from more frequent
and severe droughts
674
00:49:21,441 --> 00:49:25,031
and the rising
consumption of water
by billions more people.
675
00:49:27,965 --> 00:49:29,690
If we want to get
just a glimpse
676
00:49:29,725 --> 00:49:31,382
of what we can expect
677
00:49:31,416 --> 00:49:32,866
of the decades to come,
678
00:49:32,900 --> 00:49:35,524
we need only look
at the impact of heat waves
679
00:49:36,145 --> 00:49:38,734
in Australia in 2008,
680
00:49:38,768 --> 00:49:41,012
Russia in 2010
681
00:49:41,047 --> 00:49:43,842
and the United States in 2012,
682
00:49:43,877 --> 00:49:48,157
which destroyed up to 40%
of grain and corn harvests
683
00:49:48,192 --> 00:49:50,711
and killed tens of thousands
of livestock.
684
00:49:50,746 --> 00:49:53,369
[FLIES BUZZING]
685
00:49:54,853 --> 00:49:57,718
In the heat wave of 2010,
the Russian government
686
00:49:57,753 --> 00:50:01,377
was forced to place an embargo
on grain exports,
687
00:50:01,412 --> 00:50:03,724
and this caused chaos
in the commodities markets...
688
00:50:03,759 --> 00:50:06,072
-[CROWD CHATTERING]
-...and a massive
food price spike.
689
00:50:08,729 --> 00:50:11,077
This consequently led
to food riots
690
00:50:11,111 --> 00:50:12,837
across Asia and Africa...
691
00:50:12,871 --> 00:50:16,565
-[GUNFIRE]
-...and unrest that eventually
led to the violence
692
00:50:16,599 --> 00:50:18,843
that we now call
the Arab Spring.
693
00:50:18,877 --> 00:50:21,259
[CHANTING IN ARABIC]
694
00:50:23,986 --> 00:50:26,368
[DRAMATIC MUSIC PLAYING]
695
00:50:29,267 --> 00:50:30,268
[GUNSHOT]
696
00:50:39,829 --> 00:50:41,590
Indeed, anyone who thinks
697
00:50:41,624 --> 00:50:43,040
that the emerging state
698
00:50:43,937 --> 00:50:45,594
of global affairs
699
00:50:45,628 --> 00:50:48,666
does not have
potential for civil
and international conflict
700
00:50:49,287 --> 00:50:51,220
is deluding themselves.
701
00:50:51,255 --> 00:50:52,428
[SIREN BLARING IN DISTANCE]
702
00:50:54,189 --> 00:50:56,570
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
703
00:50:56,605 --> 00:50:58,365
EMMOTT: It's no coincidence
704
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,850
that almost
every scientific conference...
705
00:51:00,885 --> 00:51:02,749
-[HELICOPTER WHIRRS]
-...I go to
about climate change
706
00:51:04,061 --> 00:51:07,098
now has
a new kind of attendee.
707
00:51:08,617 --> 00:51:09,652
The military.
708
00:51:19,421 --> 00:51:21,871
[SPRINKLERS WHIRRING]
709
00:51:26,255 --> 00:51:29,845
EMMOTT: By the end
of this century,
large parts of this planet
710
00:51:29,879 --> 00:51:33,366
will not have anything like
enough usable water.
711
00:51:35,299 --> 00:51:37,128
Billions of people
712
00:51:37,163 --> 00:51:38,957
are likely to be living
in conditions
713
00:51:38,992 --> 00:51:41,132
of extreme water shortage
714
00:51:42,168 --> 00:51:44,653
as a result
of increasing climate change,
715
00:51:44,687 --> 00:51:46,793
increasing food demand
716
00:51:46,827 --> 00:51:48,139
and increasing population.
717
00:51:50,245 --> 00:51:53,524
Our use of ground water,
which is
essential for irrigation,
718
00:51:53,558 --> 00:51:55,457
is accelerating rapidly,
719
00:51:55,491 --> 00:51:59,046
far faster than ground water
is or can be replenished.
720
00:52:01,118 --> 00:52:06,053
And fresh water supplies
stored in the planet's
glaciers and snow cover
721
00:52:06,088 --> 00:52:10,092
are projected to decline
alarmingly this century,
722
00:52:10,127 --> 00:52:15,339
severely affecting
up to one-sixth
of the entire human population
723
00:52:15,373 --> 00:52:19,205
in countries such as China,
Pakistan and India.
724
00:52:31,976 --> 00:52:34,323
Our water problem
is unavoidably
725
00:52:34,358 --> 00:52:36,843
going to have
very adverse consequences
726
00:52:36,877 --> 00:52:38,983
for agriculture, human health
727
00:52:39,639 --> 00:52:40,709
and ecosystems.
728
00:52:54,067 --> 00:52:57,208
You might not be surprised
to learn that air traffic,
729
00:52:57,243 --> 00:52:59,693
global car production
and shipping
730
00:52:59,728 --> 00:53:03,214
are all expected to continue
to grow this century.
731
00:53:04,250 --> 00:53:06,631
Well, for starters,
we look set to produce
732
00:53:06,666 --> 00:53:09,496
another four billion cars
733
00:53:09,531 --> 00:53:11,118
in just the next 50 years.
734
00:53:13,742 --> 00:53:15,606
Global shipping
and air traffic
735
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,954
are projected to expand to
transport more of our stuff
736
00:53:18,988 --> 00:53:21,059
to more of us
around the planet.
737
00:53:34,521 --> 00:53:37,628
That's going to cause
yet more problems
738
00:53:37,662 --> 00:53:39,975
in terms of CO2 emissions,
739
00:53:40,009 --> 00:53:42,219
more black carbon
and more pollution.
740
00:53:45,463 --> 00:53:48,328
Our emerging energy problem
is also simple.
741
00:53:51,124 --> 00:53:53,402
We are going to need to triple
742
00:53:53,437 --> 00:53:56,233
energy production
by the end of this century
743
00:53:56,267 --> 00:53:58,373
to meet expected demand.
744
00:53:59,615 --> 00:54:01,341
To meet that demand,
745
00:54:01,376 --> 00:54:04,310
we would need to build,
roughly speaking,
746
00:54:04,344 --> 00:54:08,900
1,800 of the world's
largest dams
747
00:54:08,935 --> 00:54:11,938
or 23,000 nuclear
power stations,
748
00:54:13,388 --> 00:54:15,355
14 million wind turbines,
749
00:54:17,668 --> 00:54:20,671
or 36 billion solar panels.
750
00:54:20,705 --> 00:54:23,467
Or we could just keep going
751
00:54:23,501 --> 00:54:26,124
with predominantly
oil, coal and gas,
752
00:54:26,159 --> 00:54:30,681
and build something like
36,000 new power stations
that we will need.
753
00:54:35,133 --> 00:54:37,515
Our existing
fossil fuel reserves
754
00:54:37,550 --> 00:54:39,483
are worth
trillions of dollars.
755
00:54:41,554 --> 00:54:45,730
Are governments and
the world's major
energy companies,
756
00:54:45,765 --> 00:54:48,112
some of the most influential
corporations on Earth,
757
00:54:48,146 --> 00:54:51,564
really going to decide
to leave all of that money
758
00:54:51,598 --> 00:54:55,637
in the ground
as demand for energy
continues to grow and grow?
759
00:54:57,432 --> 00:54:58,605
I really doubt it.
760
00:54:59,710 --> 00:55:01,608
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
761
00:55:05,302 --> 00:55:08,443
EMMOTT: And so on to
our emerging climate problem.
762
00:55:08,477 --> 00:55:13,068
This problem is on
an entirely different scale.
763
00:55:13,102 --> 00:55:15,829
Because the problem is
that we may well be heading
764
00:55:15,864 --> 00:55:18,176
towards a number
of tipping points
765
00:55:18,211 --> 00:55:19,764
in the global climate system.
766
00:55:33,157 --> 00:55:37,610
All complex systems
are characterized
by one important feature.
767
00:55:37,644 --> 00:55:41,579
A very small change can lead
to a very large effect
768
00:55:41,614 --> 00:55:45,342
that can tip the system
into an entirely different
769
00:55:45,376 --> 00:55:47,551
and entirely
unpredictable state.
770
00:55:49,346 --> 00:55:51,658
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change,
771
00:55:51,693 --> 00:55:53,626
the IPCC,
772
00:55:53,660 --> 00:55:56,491
has said
that we need to aim to limit
773
00:55:56,525 --> 00:55:58,803
global average
temperature rises
774
00:55:58,838 --> 00:56:01,116
to two degrees or less.
775
00:56:03,429 --> 00:56:05,189
-The rationale
for this target...
-[THUNDER RUMBLES]
776
00:56:05,223 --> 00:56:07,916
...is that a rise
of above two degrees
777
00:56:07,950 --> 00:56:10,470
risks catastrophic
climate change
778
00:56:10,505 --> 00:56:15,544
that would almost certainly
lead to irreversible
planetary tipping points
779
00:56:15,579 --> 00:56:20,307
caused by events such as
the melting of the Arctic
and Antarctic ice,
780
00:56:20,929 --> 00:56:23,000
the release of methane
781
00:56:23,034 --> 00:56:26,417
from the Arctic
and Siberian permafrost
782
00:56:26,452 --> 00:56:27,694
or dieback of the Amazon.
783
00:56:30,110 --> 00:56:34,908
But the fact is
loss of ice from
the Arctic and Antarctic
784
00:56:34,943 --> 00:56:36,565
and the release of methane
785
00:56:37,394 --> 00:56:39,775
is already happening now,
786
00:56:39,810 --> 00:56:42,295
well below
the two degree threshold.
787
00:56:43,676 --> 00:56:45,919
And as for
the dieback in the Amazon,
788
00:56:45,954 --> 00:56:48,957
we're not even waiting for
climate change to do this.
789
00:56:48,991 --> 00:56:52,339
We're doing it right now
through deforestation.
790
00:56:52,374 --> 00:56:56,205
-[CHAINSAW WHIRRS]
-[TREE CREAKS]
791
00:57:01,418 --> 00:57:04,351
EMMOTT: And recent research
shows that we actually
792
00:57:04,386 --> 00:57:06,561
look to be heading
for a larger rise
793
00:57:06,595 --> 00:57:09,426
in global average temperature
than two degrees.
794
00:57:09,460 --> 00:57:10,634
A far larger rise.
795
00:57:12,049 --> 00:57:13,568
It looks as though
we're heading
796
00:57:13,602 --> 00:57:17,054
for a global
average temperature rise
of four degrees.
797
00:57:18,745 --> 00:57:22,715
And we can't even rule out
a rise of six degrees.
798
00:57:23,819 --> 00:57:25,959
[DRAMATIC MUSIC PLAYING]
799
00:57:27,651 --> 00:57:29,446
EMMOTT:
A four-to-six-degree rise
800
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:31,448
in global average temperature
801
00:57:31,482 --> 00:57:33,311
will be
absolutely catastrophic.
802
00:57:34,692 --> 00:57:36,625
It will lead
to runaway climate change
803
00:57:36,660 --> 00:57:38,765
capable of tipping the planet
804
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:41,181
into an entirely
different state,
805
00:57:41,216 --> 00:57:42,217
rapidly.
806
00:57:43,563 --> 00:57:46,566
[THUNDER RUMBLING]
807
00:58:05,171 --> 00:58:06,828
[INDISTINCT RADIO CHATTER]
808
00:58:39,792 --> 00:58:41,932
EMMOTT: In the decades
along the way
809
00:58:41,966 --> 00:58:44,969
we will witness
unprecedented extremes
810
00:58:45,004 --> 00:58:48,559
of fires, floods, heat waves,
811
00:58:48,594 --> 00:58:50,872
loss of crops, water stress
812
00:58:51,493 --> 00:58:52,770
and sea level rises.
813
00:59:01,434 --> 00:59:03,160
There almost certainly
won't be a country
814
00:59:03,194 --> 00:59:05,472
called Bangladesh
by the end of this century.
815
00:59:06,370 --> 00:59:07,544
It will be under water.
816
00:59:11,617 --> 00:59:14,240
And the Amazon could be turned
into savannah
817
00:59:14,274 --> 00:59:16,035
or even desert.
818
00:59:16,069 --> 00:59:18,589
And the entire
agricultural system
819
00:59:18,624 --> 00:59:21,316
will be faced
with an unprecedented threat.
820
00:59:24,802 --> 00:59:26,873
More fortunate countries,
821
00:59:26,908 --> 00:59:30,567
such as the UK, United States,
most of Europe,
822
00:59:30,601 --> 00:59:35,364
may even look
something approaching
like militarized countries,
823
00:59:35,399 --> 00:59:37,712
at least in terms
of border controls,
824
00:59:37,746 --> 00:59:40,197
to prevent millions of people
from entering
825
00:59:40,231 --> 00:59:41,612
who are on the move
826
00:59:41,647 --> 00:59:44,788
because their own country
is either no longer habitable
827
00:59:44,822 --> 00:59:47,066
or has insufficient
food of water
828
00:59:47,100 --> 00:59:48,619
or is experiencing conflict
829
00:59:48,654 --> 00:59:51,104
over increasingly
scarce resources.
830
00:59:55,177 --> 00:59:58,249
This people
will be climate migrants,
831
00:59:58,284 --> 01:00:01,114
a term I think we're going to
have to get used to.
832
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:05,325
[INDISTINCT CHATTER]
833
01:00:12,263 --> 01:00:14,231
[CROWD CLAMORING]
834
01:00:25,725 --> 01:00:26,726
EMMOTT: Even more worryingly,
835
01:00:27,934 --> 01:00:29,833
there is now
compelling evidence
836
01:00:29,867 --> 01:00:33,353
that the entire
global ecosystem
837
01:00:33,388 --> 01:00:36,978
is not only
capable of suffering
a catastrophic tipping point,
838
01:00:37,012 --> 01:00:39,739
but is already approaching
such a transition.
839
01:00:52,476 --> 01:00:55,168
[WIND WHISTLING]
840
01:00:58,655 --> 01:01:01,278
[HEAVY WINDS SWIRLING]
841
01:01:01,312 --> 01:01:04,661
[STORM CHASER
SPEAKING INDISTINCTLY]
842
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,940
-[METAL PIECES CLANKING]
-[WIND HOWLING]
843
01:01:15,188 --> 01:01:16,224
[CLANKING]
844
01:01:19,814 --> 01:01:21,436
[WIND HOWLING]
845
01:01:49,222 --> 01:01:53,157
EMMOTT: We are the drivers
of every global problem
we face.
846
01:01:55,401 --> 01:01:57,921
Climate change,
ecosystem degradation,
847
01:01:57,955 --> 01:01:59,577
mass extinctions,
848
01:01:59,612 --> 01:02:02,960
alteration of the planet's
global carbon cycle,
849
01:02:02,995 --> 01:02:07,965
increasing demand for food,
water, energy,
and other resources.
850
01:02:09,173 --> 01:02:11,728
Highly interconnected
problems,
851
01:02:11,762 --> 01:02:13,730
each one contributing
to the other.
852
01:02:15,214 --> 01:02:19,701
And as the human population
continues to increase,
853
01:02:19,736 --> 01:02:22,739
every one of these problems
is set to grow.
854
01:02:25,086 --> 01:02:29,884
Yet, we are failing
to do much, if anything,
about them.
855
01:02:35,268 --> 01:02:36,925
What, then,
are our options?
856
01:02:43,794 --> 01:02:46,003
The first, is technologize
our way out of it.
857
01:02:48,903 --> 01:02:52,251
And this is the domain
of what's known
as the rational optimist.
858
01:02:53,286 --> 01:02:55,806
And the rational optimist
argument says that
859
01:02:55,841 --> 01:02:58,533
past predictions of doom
860
01:02:58,567 --> 01:03:00,984
such as those
of Malthus and Ehrlich
861
01:03:01,985 --> 01:03:03,745
have turned out to be wrong,
862
01:03:03,780 --> 01:03:08,163
not least because
our cleverness
and our inventiveness
863
01:03:08,198 --> 01:03:11,684
have enabled us to solve
the population problem
864
01:03:11,718 --> 01:03:12,996
on every occasion.
865
01:03:14,480 --> 01:03:17,828
And a great example they show
is the Green Revolution.
866
01:03:19,830 --> 01:03:23,627
Now, setting aside the fact
that we've technologized
our way into these problems
867
01:03:23,661 --> 01:03:25,180
in the first place,
868
01:03:25,215 --> 01:03:29,046
let's look at the current
ideas for technologizing
our way out of them.
869
01:03:30,634 --> 01:03:32,636
First is green energy.
870
01:03:32,670 --> 01:03:37,020
Wind, wave, solar, hydro,
bio fuels,
871
01:03:37,814 --> 01:03:39,022
sometimes called renewables.
872
01:03:41,438 --> 01:03:44,993
The fact is that green energy
technologies
873
01:03:45,028 --> 01:03:49,204
are currently highly unlikely
to be a viable
planetary solution
874
01:03:49,239 --> 01:03:51,586
on the scale required
or in the time required.
875
01:03:53,622 --> 01:03:57,454
Even if existing
green technologies
were a global solution,
876
01:03:57,488 --> 01:04:00,457
we would need to be
embarking on a planetary wide
877
01:04:00,491 --> 01:04:02,424
green energy program
right now.
878
01:04:02,942 --> 01:04:03,943
And we're not.
879
01:04:05,186 --> 01:04:07,498
Even if we had embarked
on such a program,
880
01:04:07,533 --> 01:04:11,054
it would be decades
before we could power
the planet with green energy.
881
01:04:13,332 --> 01:04:16,093
And in the meantime,
almost all of our energy
882
01:04:16,128 --> 01:04:18,820
will continue to come
from fossil fuels,
883
01:04:18,855 --> 01:04:20,132
from oil, coal and gas,
884
01:04:21,478 --> 01:04:24,377
continuing to contribute
to our climate problem
885
01:04:25,033 --> 01:04:26,034
every year.
886
01:04:34,940 --> 01:04:37,149
I never thought
I'd say this,
887
01:04:37,183 --> 01:04:39,254
but in the short term,
888
01:04:39,289 --> 01:04:43,362
nuclear power would seem to be
the only existing technology
889
01:04:43,396 --> 01:04:45,053
for solving
the energy problem.
890
01:04:47,469 --> 01:04:49,816
But for nuclear power
to be a solution,
891
01:04:49,851 --> 01:04:51,404
we would need to be embarking
892
01:04:51,439 --> 01:04:54,200
on a global nuclear power
program right now...
893
01:04:54,718 --> 01:04:55,719
And we're not.
894
01:04:58,446 --> 01:05:01,621
Governments the world over
are retreating
from nuclear power,
895
01:05:01,656 --> 01:05:05,556
because it's expensive,
because neither government
nor industry
896
01:05:05,591 --> 01:05:08,352
wants to pick up the cost
of decommissioning,
897
01:05:08,387 --> 01:05:10,665
and because voters
do not like it.
898
01:05:12,356 --> 01:05:13,357
Next...
899
01:05:14,841 --> 01:05:18,811
We could potentially solve
some of our water problem
900
01:05:18,845 --> 01:05:20,675
through the building
of desalination plants
901
01:05:20,709 --> 01:05:23,022
which convert sea water
into usable water.
902
01:05:25,473 --> 01:05:29,442
But again, such programs
are not even on the horizon.
903
01:05:31,168 --> 01:05:33,308
Next, geo-engineering.
904
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:39,314
This is essentially the notion
that planetary scale
engineering efforts
905
01:05:39,349 --> 01:05:43,008
might be needed
simply to mitigate
the worst consequences
906
01:05:43,042 --> 01:05:44,941
of the problems
that we're going to face.
907
01:05:47,081 --> 01:05:50,256
For example,
putting massive umbrellas
908
01:05:50,291 --> 01:05:52,534
into orbit around our planet
909
01:05:52,569 --> 01:05:55,434
to reflect the sun's energy
back out into space.
910
01:05:56,573 --> 01:05:59,472
And I'll leave it to you
to make of that as you wish.
911
01:06:01,716 --> 01:06:05,375
The problem is
all of the current
geo-engineering ideas
912
01:06:05,409 --> 01:06:07,377
are completely unproven.
913
01:06:08,378 --> 01:06:10,207
All of them are
extremely expensive.
914
01:06:11,105 --> 01:06:13,521
And all of them
are likely to come
915
01:06:13,555 --> 01:06:15,316
with significant
knock-on effects,
916
01:06:15,350 --> 01:06:19,216
the long-term consequences
of which are completely
unpredictable.
917
01:06:20,631 --> 01:06:21,943
So, as far as I'm concerned,
918
01:06:22,633 --> 01:06:24,118
on current evidence,
919
01:06:24,152 --> 01:06:28,260
technologizing
our way out of this
does not look likely.
920
01:06:48,590 --> 01:06:50,351
So let's look
at our second option...
921
01:06:51,145 --> 01:06:52,215
Behavior change.
922
01:06:55,528 --> 01:06:59,394
We're going to need
to change our behavior
radically and globally
923
01:07:00,085 --> 01:07:01,086
on every level.
924
01:07:02,225 --> 01:07:03,916
But to accomplish this
925
01:07:03,950 --> 01:07:07,851
will almost certainly require
radical government action.
926
01:07:09,370 --> 01:07:13,891
But here,
politicians are currently
part of the problem.
927
01:07:13,926 --> 01:07:16,273
Because the decisions
needed to be taken
928
01:07:16,308 --> 01:07:19,380
to implement the kind of
behavior change needed
929
01:07:19,414 --> 01:07:22,900
will inevitably
make politicians
remarkably unpopular.
930
01:07:23,970 --> 01:07:26,352
And politicians
do like to be popular.
931
01:07:28,147 --> 01:07:31,840
So what politicians
have opted for instead
is failed diplomacy.
932
01:07:33,359 --> 01:07:34,981
For example,
933
01:07:35,016 --> 01:07:38,675
the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change,
934
01:07:38,709 --> 01:07:41,471
whose job it's been
for 20 years
935
01:07:41,505 --> 01:07:44,681
to ensure the stabilization
of greenhouse gases
936
01:07:44,715 --> 01:07:46,062
in the Earth's atmosphere...
937
01:07:47,477 --> 01:07:49,479
Failed.
938
01:07:49,513 --> 01:07:53,138
The UN Convention
to Combat Desertification,
939
01:07:53,172 --> 01:07:55,588
whose job it's been
for 20 years
940
01:07:55,623 --> 01:07:58,039
to stop land degrading
and becoming desert...
941
01:07:58,660 --> 01:08:00,559
Failed.
942
01:08:00,593 --> 01:08:02,975
The Convention
on Biological Diversity,
943
01:08:03,009 --> 01:08:05,391
whose job it's been
for 20 years
944
01:08:05,426 --> 01:08:08,222
to reduce the rate
of biodiversity loss...
945
01:08:08,808 --> 01:08:09,844
Failed.
946
01:08:12,364 --> 01:08:16,230
These are just three examples
of failed global initiatives.
947
01:08:17,645 --> 01:08:22,339
In Rio+20,
COP18 in Doha,
and COP19 in Warsaw,
948
01:08:23,616 --> 01:08:28,276
all produced
even weaker rhetoric
than previous pledges,
949
01:08:28,311 --> 01:08:30,002
conventions and commitments.
950
01:08:32,901 --> 01:08:36,664
The world is expecting us to
reach some kind of agreement
951
01:08:36,698 --> 01:08:38,148
concerning climate change,
952
01:08:38,183 --> 01:08:42,014
and not just continuing
discussing procedure,
procedure, procedure.
953
01:08:44,189 --> 01:08:47,088
It looks like 20 years
of words and inaction
954
01:08:48,262 --> 01:08:51,057
is said to continue
with another 20 years
955
01:08:51,092 --> 01:08:53,405
of words and inaction.
956
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:57,167
And all the while,
we're heading into deeper
and deeper trouble.
957
01:08:59,859 --> 01:09:04,347
And the way
governments justify
this degree of inaction
958
01:09:04,381 --> 01:09:08,074
is by exploiting
public opinion
and scientific uncertainty.
959
01:09:09,938 --> 01:09:11,492
It used to be the case of,
960
01:09:11,526 --> 01:09:14,150
"We need to wait
for science to prove that
climate change is happening."
961
01:09:15,047 --> 01:09:17,463
And that is now beyond doubt.
962
01:09:17,498 --> 01:09:21,191
So now, it's that
we need to wait for scientists
to be able to tell us
963
01:09:21,226 --> 01:09:24,677
what the impact will be,
and what the costs are.
964
01:09:24,712 --> 01:09:29,303
And then, we will need
to wait for public opinion
to get behind action.
965
01:09:31,270 --> 01:09:34,515
But climate models
are never going to be free
from uncertainties.
966
01:09:35,516 --> 01:09:37,380
And as for public opinion,
967
01:09:37,414 --> 01:09:41,832
politicians seem remarkably
free to ignore it
when it suits them.
968
01:09:52,740 --> 01:09:56,122
What about us?
How can we change
our behavior?
969
01:09:57,814 --> 01:10:01,300
I confess, I did once find it
quite amusing
970
01:10:01,335 --> 01:10:05,201
to read in the weekend papers
about some celebrity saying,
971
01:10:05,235 --> 01:10:10,378
"I've given up my 4x4
and now I've bought a hybrid.
972
01:10:10,413 --> 01:10:12,725
"Aren't I doing my bit
for the environment?"
973
01:10:13,830 --> 01:10:15,314
They're not doing their bit
for the environment.
974
01:10:16,522 --> 01:10:19,491
But in many respects,
it's not their fault.
975
01:10:19,525 --> 01:10:24,358
The fact is that they and we
are not being well informed.
976
01:10:24,392 --> 01:10:28,638
We're simply not getting
the information that we need.
977
01:10:28,672 --> 01:10:31,088
When we are advised
to do something,
978
01:10:31,123 --> 01:10:34,264
it's a token gesture
that missed
the fundamental fact
979
01:10:34,299 --> 01:10:37,163
that the scale and the nature
of the problems we face
980
01:10:37,198 --> 01:10:39,752
are immense, unprecedented,
981
01:10:39,787 --> 01:10:41,237
and possibly unsolvable.
982
01:10:43,446 --> 01:10:46,828
The behavior changes
that are required
are so fundamental
983
01:10:46,863 --> 01:10:48,416
that no one wants
to make them.
984
01:10:50,107 --> 01:10:51,937
What are they?
985
01:10:51,971 --> 01:10:55,043
Well, consume less,
but a lot less.
986
01:10:55,078 --> 01:10:57,943
Less food, less energy,
less stuff.
987
01:11:00,739 --> 01:11:02,913
Fewer cars, electric cars,
988
01:11:02,948 --> 01:11:06,054
cotton T-shirts, laptops,
TVs, far fewer.
989
01:11:08,402 --> 01:11:11,888
And the interesting thing is
we know this.
990
01:11:11,922 --> 01:11:16,168
Yet every decade,
global consumption
just continues to increase.
991
01:11:28,284 --> 01:11:29,940
And it is worth
pointing out here
992
01:11:29,975 --> 01:11:34,807
that "we" simply refers
to the people who live
in the west and the north
993
01:11:34,842 --> 01:11:35,912
of the planet, predominantly.
994
01:11:38,397 --> 01:11:44,092
There are currently almost
three billion people who need
to urgently consume more.
995
01:11:44,127 --> 01:11:46,923
More water, more food,
more energy.
996
01:11:47,751 --> 01:11:49,201
By the end of this century,
997
01:11:49,235 --> 01:11:51,928
there will be billions more
who'll need to consume
998
01:11:51,962 --> 01:11:53,964
more water, food
and energy.
999
01:12:09,635 --> 01:12:12,535
So what about
population growth itself?
1000
01:12:14,260 --> 01:12:18,230
Even saying,
"Don't have children,"
is utterly ridiculous.
1001
01:12:18,264 --> 01:12:23,373
That said,
the worst thing that we could
continue to do globally
1002
01:12:23,408 --> 01:12:26,549
is continue to have children
at our current rate.
1003
01:12:28,792 --> 01:12:32,796
'Cause if we do so,
according to UN predictions,
1004
01:12:32,831 --> 01:12:37,525
by the end of this century,
there will not be
ten billion of us.
1005
01:12:38,630 --> 01:12:41,218
There will be
28 billion of us.
1006
01:13:21,535 --> 01:13:26,229
Only an idiot would deny
that there's a carrying
capacity to Earth.
1007
01:13:27,817 --> 01:13:29,715
And the question is...
1008
01:13:29,750 --> 01:13:31,130
Is it seven billion,
1009
01:13:31,165 --> 01:13:32,166
ten billion,
1010
01:13:32,753 --> 01:13:33,754
or 28 billion?
1011
01:13:36,239 --> 01:13:40,416
I think we've already
gone past it, well past it.
1012
01:13:57,778 --> 01:14:02,817
We could potentially
change the situation
we are in.
1013
01:14:05,406 --> 01:14:07,581
Probably not by
technologizing
our way out of it,
1014
01:14:08,547 --> 01:14:10,446
but by radically changing
our behavior.
1015
01:14:12,275 --> 01:14:15,520
But there is no sign
that this is happening,
1016
01:14:15,554 --> 01:14:16,900
or that it's about to happen.
1017
01:14:19,558 --> 01:14:23,804
So I think it's going to be
business as usual for us.
1018
01:14:24,563 --> 01:14:26,254
[FRENETIC MUSIC PLAYING]
1019
01:14:46,482 --> 01:14:50,624
EMMOTT: As a scientist,
what I think
about the current situation...
1020
01:14:50,658 --> 01:14:53,247
Well, science is essentially
organized skepticism.
1021
01:14:55,180 --> 01:14:59,115
I spend my life trying
to prove my work wrong
1022
01:14:59,149 --> 01:15:00,565
or look for
alternative explanations.
1023
01:15:02,981 --> 01:15:03,982
I hope I'm wrong.
1024
01:15:05,397 --> 01:15:07,606
But the science points to
my not being wrong.
1025
01:15:09,712 --> 01:15:15,096
As I said at the beginning,
we can rightly call
the situation we're all in
1026
01:15:15,131 --> 01:15:16,995
an emergency.
1027
01:15:17,029 --> 01:15:19,480
An unprecedented
planetary emergency.
1028
01:15:20,861 --> 01:15:24,623
And why we're not doing more,
given the scale
and the urgency
1029
01:15:24,658 --> 01:15:26,211
of the problem,
1030
01:15:26,245 --> 01:15:28,454
I simply cannot understand.
1031
01:15:31,665 --> 01:15:35,669
We urgently need to do,
and I mean do,
1032
01:15:35,703 --> 01:15:39,604
something radical
to avert a global catastrophe.
1033
01:15:42,296 --> 01:15:43,573
But I don't think we will.
1034
01:15:45,092 --> 01:15:46,438
I think we're fucked.
1035
01:16:24,752 --> 01:16:28,031
If we discovered tomorrow
that there was an asteroid
1036
01:16:28,066 --> 01:16:30,137
on collision course
with Earth,
1037
01:16:33,934 --> 01:16:37,834
we were able to calculate
that it was going to hit Earth
1038
01:16:37,869 --> 01:16:40,492
on the 3rd of June, 2080,
1039
01:16:44,738 --> 01:16:48,258
and we knew that its impact
was going to wipe out
1040
01:16:48,293 --> 01:16:51,365
70% of all life on Earth,
1041
01:16:56,508 --> 01:17:00,098
governments worldwide
would marshal
the entire planet
1042
01:17:00,132 --> 01:17:02,134
into unprecedented action.
1043
01:17:04,274 --> 01:17:08,831
Every scientist, engineer,
university and business
1044
01:17:08,865 --> 01:17:11,868
would be enlisted
to find a way of stopping it.
1045
01:17:17,771 --> 01:17:21,844
We are now in almost precisely
that situation,
1046
01:17:23,535 --> 01:17:27,297
except that there isn't a date
and there isn't an asteroid.
1047
01:17:28,782 --> 01:17:30,611
The problem is us.
1048
01:17:42,899 --> 01:17:44,314
[INDISTINCT CHATTER]
1049
01:17:44,349 --> 01:17:45,350
[CHILD SHRIEKS]
1050
01:17:52,460 --> 01:17:53,669
[CROWD CHEERING]
1051
01:17:53,703 --> 01:17:54,704
[PEOPLE SHOUTING]
1052
01:18:12,135 --> 01:18:15,552
[BLASTING SOUNDS]
1053
01:20:04,489 --> 01:20:06,353
[CLOSING TITLE MUSIC]
76199
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