All language subtitles for [English (auto-generated)] The PCR Test is NOT a Valid Diagnostic Tool [DownSub.com]

okay hi everybody i just wanted to do

another couple short videos

and please excuse the occasional

white rings that's the in my glasses i

can't seem to figure out how to get

rid of that and still have lighting i

not

some sort of cyborg who has white rings

on my eyes that's just um anyways

i can't quite get rid of it i hope it's

not too distracting

uh what i wanted to talk about today

pretty briefly

was uh first the pcr

test and then i wanted to review the

latest

research on the medurna vaccine

so they'll be broken up into two

segments

so let's uh do the first one on the pcr

test and we've gone over this

a number of times but i still get

questions and i think it's one of the

most important things to understand

particularly because there was a recent

ruling i think by

some court system in portugal i'm not

sure if it was the supreme court or some

court

us questioning the validity of the pcr

test

and they actually ruled that the pcr

test was not

a valid diagnostic tool which of course

it's not

a pcr test is a manufacturing tool

so let me start by saying uh one of the

most discouraging

things that's uh arisen in this whole

situation since march and this probably

happened around

april or so i got an email from

one of the leaders in the uh so-called

anti-vaccine movement

head of one of the major physicians

organizations

and the email was uh something to the

effect of tom i just wanted you to be

aware

that um there's a pcr test available

that has a 84.6

percent accuracy which she said was

better than some of the other ones

and then i should consider using it

so of course i wrote back and said uh

thank you very much for the information

but i would never

use a test that has anything less than

an 84.7 percent accuracy

and of course i was kidding uh to make a

point

but uh the interesting question is how

did

how did she think these people came up

with a number 84.6

although i must admit it could have been

86.4

because i don't remember but it's one of

those two in any case

it was 84 86 point

something four or six so the question is

how did they come up with that

test sorry how did they come up with

that number

so here is the way you could come up

with the number

a pcr test is what's called a surrogate

test

which means it's not a direct

measurement of anything

it's a stand in for the direct

measurement

and let me give you a very clear example

of how

you know the false positive and false

negative rate for a surrogate test

imagine you wanted to do a blood

pregnancy test

and you wanted to see how accurate it is

so one the first thing you could do is

take 100 women

who are 20 weeks pregnant now

the first question is are you a hundred

percent sure that all those hundred

women

are in fact pregnant and i think most of

us

if not hopefully all of us would agree

that you could do that

you could feel the baby you could feel

if the baby's kicking

you could do an ultrasound and see if

there's actually a baby

in there you might even actually ask the

woman do you think there's a baby in

there which is not 100

accurate but it's i guess it would be

pretty close

and if you were also sort of stupid

enough you could do an x-ray and see the

baby

i hope nobody would do that but there

are a number of ways

that you could convince yourself that we

are a hundred percent

sure that this woman is in fact pregnant

and there is a baby in there

now given that then you can do a

pregnancy test a blood or a urine test

or any other marker that you choose

and if you do the test on all hundred

women

and 98 of them test positive

meaning to test negative then

you know for sure that that test

missed two percent of the of the women

who you know to be positive pregnant

so there's a false negative rate of two

percent

which is pretty good for a biological

test which means that if you do the test

and on somebody you know remotely and

you can't figure out whether they're

pregnant at 20 weeks

you know that if it's positive they have

a 98

chance that it's an accurate test and a

2

chance that it's not accurate so you're

not 100 sure

but you're pretty close the next step

you would do

is take 100 women who you know for sure

aren't pregnant or if you wanted to be

really sure you could even do it with a

hundred men

in which case you're pretty darn sure

that none of those men are pregnant

or you could do it with post-menopausal

women or you could do it with

women who've had no sexual contact in

the last year

or any other group of a hundred women

who you are a hundred percent sure they

are not pregnant

and then you do your test you do a blood

test or urine test

and let's say three of them test

positive

and now you know those are not accurate

because you know they're not pregnant

and so then you have a three percent

false positive rate

in order to have a test that has a

84.6 percent false

positive or accuracy rate so that 84.6

accuracy means 15.4

were false positive in order to do that

by definition you would have had to do a

hundred

uh gold standard or people that you know

actually have the corona virus

so the gold standard for a pcr

test is you take a hun a thousand people

in this example

because if you only took 100 you could

only say 84

accurate if you only did 10 people you

would only be able to say

10 accurate or 20 so in order to say

84.6 you would have had to start with a

thousand people

and then you would have had to examine

all thousands of them

who have the same disease right so they

have the same set of symptoms

this has clearly been defined as

covid19 sort of like chickenpox

everybody has the same symptoms and you

could say

clearly this is the disease called

chickenpox

or you have a blood clot in your lungs

you can see that with with an x-ray test

you can see the clot so you know that

all

hundred all thousand of these people

have covet 19. then

you do as i've described isolation

purification

characterization and you find the

coronavirus

in each of those thousands now you know

they have the same disease

they have the same virus then you can

pull out the the genetic material from

that virus that you've now isolated

you can find a unique piece of that

coronavirus you can make a marker

or segment a primer that attaches to

that unique piece

and then you would do that on a thousand

people

who don't have it and that would tell

you the false positive rate

and that would be how you would come up

with that number 84.6

now if i was speaking to a live audience

i would say the audience anybody take a

guess

as to how many people right now in the

medical literature

have been positively identified with

covet 19

uh having the exact same set of symptoms

or at least very

similar who've had the virus isolated

purified

characterized found a unique segment

so that we actually have a gold standard

and i think

everybody by now knows i know the exact

answer to that question i know the exact

number

it's zero therefore

because there is nothing to compare this

pcr

test to not even one person

you can't say that it's 10 14

or 84.6 or any percent

in other words and if there's anything i

want everybody to get take away

from this short video there is no

such thing as a false positive pcr

test for coronavirus nor

is there a such thing as a false

negative test for coronavirus with a pcr

test the test is not false positive

it's not false negative it's just plain

good old-fashioned false it means

nothing

because unless you have a gold standard

you have no idea what you're testing for

unless you've isolated the virus

sequenced the genome

found a unique segment which has not

been done

you have no idea whether you're testing

for segments

that come from this virus or not the

test is meaningless

which is why it's such a dangerous

weapon

because you can make the test positive

or not

just depending on how many cycles you

amplify

the sequences and that becomes a

horrible weapon for controlling the

numbers

in a so-called pandemic and i hope that

clarifies things for everybody

and then again in the next video we're

going to go over

the numbers on the moduna vaccine trial