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1
00:00:04,037 --> 00:00:09,242
(airplane engine rumbling)
2
00:00:09,242 --> 00:00:11,244
- [Ustinov] At any
moment, the armed forces
3
00:00:11,244 --> 00:00:13,812
of East and West
are ready for war.
4
00:00:13,813 --> 00:00:21,955
(aircraft engine whining)
5
00:00:22,922 --> 00:00:24,190
- Transmission rotary switch?
6
00:00:24,190 --> 00:00:24,924
- Cable.
7
00:00:24,924 --> 00:00:27,394
- How about slot PLCA
selector switches?
8
00:00:27,394 --> 00:00:28,660
- Zero-seven.
9
00:00:29,029 --> 00:00:31,831
- [Ustinov] Should our
grudging peace ever falter,
10
00:00:31,831 --> 00:00:34,667
today's warriors can
stage a battle far worse
11
00:00:34,667 --> 00:00:38,004
than anything our bloodstained
world has ever seen.
12
00:00:38,004 --> 00:00:41,474
(aircraft engine roaring)
13
00:00:41,474 --> 00:00:46,012
(tanks rumbling)
14
00:00:46,012 --> 00:00:47,680
After all, it takes
less than a minute
15
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:49,616
to launch the missiles
that could bring
16
00:00:49,616 --> 00:00:52,852
our civilization to
a catastrophic end.
17
00:00:52,852 --> 00:00:53,986
- Bravo.
18
00:00:53,987 --> 00:00:55,655
- Charlie?
- Charlie.
19
00:00:56,156 --> 00:00:58,391
- [Ustinov] The missiles
must never be unleashed;
20
00:00:58,391 --> 00:01:00,059
we can all agree on that.
21
00:01:00,060 --> 00:01:01,828
So we'd better
search out the roots
22
00:01:01,828 --> 00:01:03,963
that might lead to nuclear war.
23
00:01:03,963 --> 00:01:05,565
- U-turn commit time.
24
00:01:06,066 --> 00:01:08,635
- Three, two, one: mark.
25
00:01:08,635 --> 00:01:19,779
(missile roars)
26
00:01:33,026 --> 00:01:36,996
(missiles hissing)
27
00:01:38,264 --> 00:01:39,532
- The long range missiles
28
00:01:39,532 --> 00:01:42,402
of the opposing sides can
dispatch nuclear warheads
29
00:01:42,402 --> 00:01:45,505
to 10,000 different targets.
30
00:01:45,505 --> 00:01:49,109
Unless mutual terror or good
sense keep them in check,
31
00:01:49,109 --> 00:01:52,479
they may rise out of holes
all across our northern lands
32
00:01:52,479 --> 00:01:55,348
and come bursting from the sea.
33
00:01:55,348 --> 00:02:02,856
(missile rumbling)
34
00:02:02,856 --> 00:02:02,889
(missile rumbling)
And where would
these missiles go?
35
00:02:02,889 --> 00:02:04,624
And where would
these missiles go?
36
00:02:05,158 --> 00:02:09,529
Well...the obvious targets
are where people are.
37
00:02:09,529 --> 00:02:10,829
In cities.
38
00:02:10,830 --> 00:02:13,833
So the city dwellers
have become the hostages
39
00:02:13,833 --> 00:02:18,171
of the threat and counter-
threat of nuclear war.
40
00:02:18,204 --> 00:02:19,973
And our nuclear nightmares begin
41
00:02:19,973 --> 00:02:23,343
with the destruction of
lively and lovely cities
42
00:02:23,343 --> 00:02:26,745
like Paris, an emblem
of civilization itself,
43
00:02:26,746 --> 00:02:30,316
and heaven knows where
the nightmares end.
44
00:02:30,683 --> 00:02:33,453
A single nuclear
bomb, easily spared
45
00:02:33,453 --> 00:02:36,689
from out of the huge
arsenal of these things,
46
00:02:36,689 --> 00:02:38,858
could lay the whole of
central Paris to waste
47
00:02:38,858 --> 00:02:40,693
in an explosion much
greater than that
48
00:02:40,693 --> 00:02:43,263
of Nagasaki or Hiroshima.
49
00:02:44,030 --> 00:02:45,632
(slides clicking)
50
00:02:47,233 --> 00:02:48,334
(slides clicking)
51
00:02:50,703 --> 00:02:51,704
(slides clicking)
52
00:02:54,073 --> 00:02:55,074
(slides clicking)
53
00:02:57,343 --> 00:02:58,344
(slides clicking)
54
00:02:59,445 --> 00:03:03,715
The cosmic lunacy which
produces such horror
55
00:03:03,716 --> 00:03:07,554
is not, as you might
expect, the affliction
56
00:03:07,554 --> 00:03:09,722
of irredeemably wicked men.
57
00:03:09,722 --> 00:03:12,559
No, it's palliative,
carefully worked out
58
00:03:12,559 --> 00:03:15,361
and considered
government policy.
59
00:03:15,361 --> 00:03:19,198
In the meanwhile, military
accountants are working out
60
00:03:19,199 --> 00:03:21,100
how big a bang they
can get for a buck,
61
00:03:21,100 --> 00:03:24,204
how much rubble for a ruble.
62
00:03:25,004 --> 00:03:29,274
Our dreams might be untroubled
if this mutual terror
63
00:03:29,275 --> 00:03:32,378
had really managed to
abolish war altogether,
64
00:03:32,378 --> 00:03:35,815
but unfortunately the
mutual nervousness
65
00:03:35,815 --> 00:03:38,952
causes the armed
forces of all sides
66
00:03:38,952 --> 00:03:42,222
to jostle and probe each other
67
00:03:42,222 --> 00:03:45,425
and to shadow box within sight
68
00:03:45,425 --> 00:03:47,627
of their potential adversaries.
69
00:03:47,627 --> 00:03:50,430
(aircraft humming)
70
00:03:50,430 --> 00:03:52,365
Although the crew
of a Soviet bomber
71
00:03:52,365 --> 00:03:55,702
acknowledges a point scored
by the western interceptor,
72
00:03:55,702 --> 00:03:57,971
the sparring would
scarcely be keener
73
00:03:57,971 --> 00:04:00,073
if war had already begun.
74
00:04:01,874 --> 00:04:03,942
(aircraft whooshing)
75
00:04:03,943 --> 00:04:06,679
A British aircraft
and a Russian warship;
76
00:04:06,679 --> 00:04:08,848
Today they shoot
only with cameras.
77
00:04:08,848 --> 00:04:11,651
(camera clicking)
78
00:04:15,255 --> 00:04:17,490
(camera clicking)
79
00:04:21,060 --> 00:04:22,695
While the western
submarine hunters
80
00:04:22,695 --> 00:04:25,798
play catch as catch can,
for the Soviet boats
81
00:04:25,798 --> 00:04:27,834
it's follow the leader.
82
00:04:30,436 --> 00:04:32,805
(helicopter whirring)
83
00:04:32,805 --> 00:04:35,341
A helicopter from
the cruiser Leningrad
84
00:04:35,341 --> 00:04:37,877
teases the American admiral
who's sizing them up
85
00:04:37,877 --> 00:04:40,580
at unusually close quarters.
86
00:04:40,580 --> 00:04:42,315
(helicopter whirring)
87
00:04:42,315 --> 00:04:44,350
Only the law of the high seas
88
00:04:44,350 --> 00:04:46,786
restrains this unfriendly game,
89
00:04:46,786 --> 00:04:49,822
and also, I trust, a healthy
fear of the consequences
90
00:04:49,822 --> 00:04:53,159
if encounters should
ever become conflict.
91
00:04:53,793 --> 00:04:58,564
Will the Americans refrain
from meeting taunt with taunt?
92
00:04:58,564 --> 00:05:02,568
Ah no, you see; they stage
their little fly past, too.
93
00:05:02,568 --> 00:05:09,275
(helicopter whirring)
94
00:05:09,275 --> 00:05:11,710
And it's in the
same forceful spirit
95
00:05:11,711 --> 00:05:13,413
that a United States helicopter
96
00:05:13,413 --> 00:05:15,515
patrols the border
of East Germany,
97
00:05:15,515 --> 00:05:19,217
the frontline ally
of the Soviet Union.
98
00:05:19,218 --> 00:05:22,855
The white posts mark the
end of the western world
99
00:05:22,855 --> 00:05:25,158
and the army pilot has
been specially coached
100
00:05:25,158 --> 00:05:27,927
to fly within a
few feet of them.
101
00:05:27,927 --> 00:05:34,734
(helicopter whirring)
102
00:05:34,734 --> 00:05:37,770
It doesn't look like the most
dangerous place on Earth,
103
00:05:37,770 --> 00:05:40,039
but all the outlandish firepower
104
00:05:40,039 --> 00:05:43,909
that's concentrated here -
Russian, American, and British -
105
00:05:43,910 --> 00:05:47,747
could touch off a nuclear
volcano at any time.
106
00:05:47,747 --> 00:05:51,084
(helicopter whirring)
107
00:05:51,084 --> 00:05:53,619
The East German fences,
set back a little
108
00:05:53,619 --> 00:05:57,223
from the border, delineate
in suitably ugly fashion
109
00:05:57,223 --> 00:06:01,361
the geopolitical rift that
runs right across Europe.
110
00:06:01,361 --> 00:06:33,058
(helicopter whirring)
111
00:06:33,059 --> 00:06:35,962
If I negligently drop
my keys over here
112
00:06:35,962 --> 00:06:37,597
I couldn't just run
down and pick them up
113
00:06:37,597 --> 00:06:39,265
because they will have fallen
114
00:06:39,265 --> 00:06:41,667
into the other side of the
world into East Germany;
115
00:06:41,667 --> 00:06:45,037
I might as well throw
them into the ocean.
116
00:06:45,037 --> 00:06:48,073
And this is how close
the American cavalry is
117
00:06:48,074 --> 00:06:49,876
to this demarcation line
118
00:06:49,876 --> 00:06:53,145
at this observation
post called Alpha.
119
00:06:53,146 --> 00:06:57,717
In front of here and behind
great armies lie in wait
120
00:06:57,717 --> 00:07:00,887
for the war that
must never happen.
121
00:07:00,887 --> 00:07:03,623
The new European war
which could so easily
122
00:07:03,623 --> 00:07:06,359
get out of hand
involving not only
123
00:07:06,359 --> 00:07:08,227
thousands of tanks and planes,
124
00:07:08,227 --> 00:07:12,364
but eventually thousands
of nuclear weapons.
125
00:07:12,365 --> 00:07:16,102
And this sinister
arsenal is dedicated
126
00:07:16,102 --> 00:07:20,907
to the perpetuation
of the ugly rift...
127
00:07:20,907 --> 00:07:24,744
across which young
men in good health
128
00:07:24,744 --> 00:07:27,780
watch each other so warily.
129
00:07:30,483 --> 00:07:33,119
- What's that you've
seen over there?
130
00:07:35,621 --> 00:07:38,424
Our mission here is
basically to overwatch
131
00:07:38,424 --> 00:07:40,393
the East German border.
132
00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:45,231
It is to observe, record,
and report all actions,
133
00:07:45,231 --> 00:07:48,000
whether it's an East
German patrol walking past
134
00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,069
or walking right
along the border
135
00:07:50,069 --> 00:07:53,139
or whether it's a work
force on the border.
136
00:07:54,574 --> 00:07:57,810
My personal feelings
are that I like it here.
137
00:07:57,810 --> 00:08:00,213
If there's any place in
Europe that I want to be,
138
00:08:00,213 --> 00:08:01,914
it's right here on the border.
139
00:08:01,914 --> 00:08:09,388
(birds chirping)
140
00:08:09,388 --> 00:08:11,090
- [Ustinov] Europe has
a grim reputation
141
00:08:11,090 --> 00:08:14,760
for turning its pleasant
hills into battlefields.
142
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,662
If that ever happens again,
143
00:08:16,662 --> 00:08:19,599
these troops will
take the first shot.
144
00:08:19,599 --> 00:08:22,602
(birds chirping)
145
00:08:22,602 --> 00:08:24,669
It's been all quiet
on the Central Front
146
00:08:24,670 --> 00:08:27,440
for most of the past 30 years.
147
00:08:29,509 --> 00:08:31,677
But all along the
rift, the West Germans,
148
00:08:31,677 --> 00:08:33,279
the British, and other troops
149
00:08:33,279 --> 00:08:35,881
of the North Atlantic
Alliance, NATO,
150
00:08:35,881 --> 00:08:38,483
face powerful opponents
from the Soviet Union
151
00:08:38,484 --> 00:08:39,952
and Eastern Europe.
152
00:08:39,952 --> 00:08:46,926
(vehicle idling)
153
00:08:46,926 --> 00:08:49,061
In this sector where
the East German border
154
00:08:49,061 --> 00:08:51,764
juts nearest to the
Rhine, it's the Americans
155
00:08:51,764 --> 00:08:54,800
who stand at what soldiers
call the "Sharp End"
156
00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,738
as the West's most forward
defenders in case of trouble.
157
00:08:58,738 --> 00:09:00,406
(vehicle idling)
158
00:09:00,406 --> 00:09:02,842
- It's...kinda strange
lookin' out there
159
00:09:02,842 --> 00:09:05,311
and have them
lookin' back at you,
160
00:09:05,311 --> 00:09:07,747
wonderin' what they're thinking
and...
161
00:09:07,747 --> 00:09:09,848
what they're
doing and everything.
162
00:09:09,849 --> 00:09:12,051
They've got a job
just like we do.
163
00:09:12,785 --> 00:09:13,953
- I don't know,
there's times I'd like
164
00:09:13,953 --> 00:09:16,923
to talk to them, but we can't...
165
00:09:17,523 --> 00:09:18,858
I don't know...
166
00:09:19,358 --> 00:09:22,828
They just sit around and
watch us when they see us.
167
00:09:22,828 --> 00:09:24,497
They go hide from us and stuff.
168
00:09:24,497 --> 00:09:28,000
- I have talked to a few
of the East German guards.
169
00:09:29,502 --> 00:09:31,904
Most of 'em are just
soldiers like we are.
170
00:09:31,904 --> 00:09:33,739
(men chattering)
171
00:09:33,739 --> 00:09:35,141
- You got that right?
- Got it.
172
00:09:35,141 --> 00:09:37,810
- [Ustinov] The Americans are
crack troops, all set to jump
173
00:09:37,810 --> 00:09:40,646
into their battle tanks
and oppose any breach
174
00:09:40,646 --> 00:09:42,582
of the fateful frontier.
175
00:09:42,582 --> 00:09:48,020
(birds chirping)
176
00:09:48,020 --> 00:09:49,956
- We're always ready
for a surprise attack.
177
00:09:49,956 --> 00:09:53,659
I have a unit that's always
positioned on the border.
178
00:09:53,659 --> 00:09:55,595
It's always manned; it
can respond within
179
00:09:55,595 --> 00:09:57,330
less than 15 minutes.
180
00:09:57,830 --> 00:09:59,198
And all they have to
do is call back here
181
00:09:59,198 --> 00:10:01,434
and the rest of us will
respond very quickly.
182
00:10:01,434 --> 00:10:08,040
(tank idling)
183
00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,876
I've got 250 different
combat systems here.
184
00:10:10,876 --> 00:10:13,545
They consist of tanks
for my cavalry troops
185
00:10:13,546 --> 00:10:14,647
and my tank company.
186
00:10:14,647 --> 00:10:17,883
Scout vehicles mounted with
the Dragon weapon systems.
187
00:10:17,883 --> 00:10:22,488
Ammunition trucks, jeeps,
command and control vehicles.
188
00:10:23,022 --> 00:10:24,924
We pack one heck of a big punch,
189
00:10:24,924 --> 00:10:26,826
much larger punch
than any other unit
190
00:10:26,826 --> 00:10:28,728
in the United States Army.
191
00:10:29,762 --> 00:10:37,670
(tank rumbling)
192
00:10:37,670 --> 00:10:39,639
- So, these are 155
millimeter Howitzers.
193
00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:43,242
They're capable of indirect
fire support for the squadron.
194
00:10:43,876 --> 00:10:48,247
We have different types of
munitions, high explosive.
195
00:10:48,247 --> 00:10:50,348
We have the rounds that
will lay minefields
196
00:10:50,349 --> 00:10:53,019
and drop bomblets and
they're also dual capable.
197
00:10:53,019 --> 00:10:54,854
They have a nuclear capability.
198
00:10:54,854 --> 00:10:57,990
(tank roaring)
199
00:10:57,990 --> 00:11:01,627
I think that the nuclear
weapon is a great deterrent
200
00:11:01,627 --> 00:11:03,596
in the political scene today.
201
00:11:03,596 --> 00:11:06,432
I think that you can
see in the newspaper
202
00:11:06,432 --> 00:11:10,603
and in the news how much
it plays an important part
203
00:11:10,603 --> 00:11:14,806
in everything that is
done with governments.
204
00:11:15,107 --> 00:11:18,944
I think that us knowing
that the other side has them
205
00:11:18,944 --> 00:11:20,445
and them knowing
that we have them
206
00:11:20,446 --> 00:11:23,215
is a deterrent that
is possibly one
207
00:11:23,215 --> 00:11:25,751
that will keep us
from another wartime.
208
00:11:30,022 --> 00:11:30,956
(loud click)
209
00:11:30,956 --> 00:11:33,926
- [Ustinov] Apart from the guns
that can fire nuclear shells,
210
00:11:33,926 --> 00:11:37,797
bombs of much greater power can
be delivered out of the sky.
211
00:11:38,397 --> 00:11:41,734
Supersonic strike aircraft,
stationed in England
212
00:11:41,734 --> 00:11:45,604
for instance, are fully
prepared for that dismal task.
213
00:11:45,604 --> 00:11:49,475
(aircraft engine idling)
214
00:11:49,475 --> 00:11:51,410
The crew can take
their nuclear weapons
215
00:11:51,410 --> 00:11:53,746
to destinations
anywhere in Europe,
216
00:11:53,746 --> 00:11:56,449
on the battlefield
or far beyond it.
217
00:11:56,449 --> 00:12:00,185
(aircraft engine idling)
218
00:12:00,186 --> 00:12:01,954
The leaders of
NATO see themselves
219
00:12:01,954 --> 00:12:05,391
increasingly outnumbered
in planes and tanks.
220
00:12:05,391 --> 00:12:07,026
They doubt their ability to win
221
00:12:07,026 --> 00:12:09,728
a war in Europe
by ordinary means.
222
00:12:09,729 --> 00:12:11,430
(ladder clattering)
223
00:12:12,198 --> 00:12:15,601
So, as their current statement
of strategy declares,
224
00:12:15,601 --> 00:12:19,438
if NATO's conventional forces
were in danger of defeat,
225
00:12:19,438 --> 00:12:22,641
selective and limited
use of nuclear weapons
226
00:12:22,641 --> 00:12:24,877
could not be deferred.
227
00:12:24,877 --> 00:12:26,911
(aircraft engine idling)
228
00:12:26,912 --> 00:12:28,714
(aircraft roaring)
229
00:12:28,714 --> 00:12:30,683
But to postpone for
as long as possible
230
00:12:30,683 --> 00:12:33,319
any need to "go
nuclear" as they say,
231
00:12:33,319 --> 00:12:37,289
NATO looks to its conventional
forces in Germany.
232
00:12:37,289 --> 00:12:39,525
The snag is, of course,
is that the Russians
233
00:12:39,525 --> 00:12:41,459
have nuclear weapons, too.
234
00:12:41,460 --> 00:12:44,029
So aircraft specially
built for fighting tanks
235
00:12:44,029 --> 00:12:48,834
might seem a more prudent
defense than atomic artillery.
236
00:12:48,834 --> 00:13:00,512
(aircraft rumbling)
237
00:13:00,513 --> 00:13:03,282
The fighting men who
profit from technology
238
00:13:03,282 --> 00:13:06,318
are liable to perish by it, too.
239
00:13:06,919 --> 00:13:09,855
Even non-nuclear weapons
are now so powerful
240
00:13:09,855 --> 00:13:12,992
that any war in Europe would
be a competition in slaughter,
241
00:13:12,992 --> 00:13:15,593
swift and terrible
to contemplate.
242
00:13:15,594 --> 00:13:19,899
(helicopter rumbling)
243
00:13:19,899 --> 00:13:22,468
Who would want to meet
a helicopter gun ship
244
00:13:22,468 --> 00:13:22,501
Who would want to meet
a helicopter gun ship
leaping up before him?
245
00:13:22,501 --> 00:13:24,370
leaping up before him?
246
00:13:24,370 --> 00:13:29,441
(helicopter whirring)
247
00:13:29,441 --> 00:13:32,845
It's chockfull of gadgets
for dealing out death.
248
00:13:32,845 --> 00:13:35,514
(helicopter whirring)
249
00:13:36,048 --> 00:13:38,784
The predictable
violence of modern war
250
00:13:38,784 --> 00:13:42,755
drives the generals and their
headquarters underground.
251
00:13:42,755 --> 00:13:44,123
The command bunkers are dotted
252
00:13:44,123 --> 00:13:46,792
all around Europe
in unlikely places.
253
00:13:46,792 --> 00:13:49,662
For instance, at an
American football stadium
254
00:13:49,662 --> 00:13:51,931
just west of the Rhine.
255
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,669
Beneath the terraces,
the staff officers
256
00:13:56,669 --> 00:13:59,004
secure themselves
against chemical weapons
257
00:13:59,004 --> 00:14:01,073
and nuclear fallout.
258
00:14:01,073 --> 00:14:02,942
So it would, as
it were, be a fight
259
00:14:02,942 --> 00:14:06,378
between one team of
moles and another.
260
00:14:06,779 --> 00:14:07,546
(door slams)
261
00:14:07,546 --> 00:14:11,917
(indistinct chatter &
control room sounds)
262
00:14:11,917 --> 00:14:13,519
They're sending
off strike aircraft
263
00:14:13,519 --> 00:14:15,487
to help the ground troops.
264
00:14:15,487 --> 00:14:18,257
Thank goodness it's
only an exercise.
265
00:14:18,924 --> 00:14:22,060
- In the event there is
a war here in Europe,
266
00:14:22,061 --> 00:14:24,430
the primary mission
of ATOC Sembach
267
00:14:24,430 --> 00:14:28,132
will be to task and
coordinate offensive support,
268
00:14:28,133 --> 00:14:33,372
air support, for the U.S.
and German Army Corps
269
00:14:33,372 --> 00:14:34,873
within the central region.
270
00:14:34,874 --> 00:14:39,311
- Four oscar nine zero
two is airborne, 1232.
271
00:14:39,311 --> 00:14:42,114
- Roger that, sir. Juliet
charlie here at the ATOC.
272
00:14:42,548 --> 00:14:45,451
- One fox six zero two romeo.
273
00:14:45,985 --> 00:14:49,788
He was successful on target
number three victor 901.
274
00:14:49,788 --> 00:14:53,225
- Five two three will
also file the full profile.
275
00:14:53,926 --> 00:14:55,394
- [Ustinov] If the
battle is going badly
276
00:14:55,394 --> 00:14:58,664
and if the political
leaders of the West consent,
277
00:14:58,664 --> 00:15:01,133
the commanders can replace
their ordinary weapons
278
00:15:01,133 --> 00:15:02,968
with nuclear bombs...
279
00:15:03,769 --> 00:15:07,940
a contingency that is
familiar to scholars of war.
280
00:15:07,940 --> 00:15:10,442
- A nuclear war could
arise in the first place
281
00:15:10,442 --> 00:15:13,379
from a Soviet attack
on Western Europe.
282
00:15:13,879 --> 00:15:18,751
And indeed...NATO defenses
quite deliberately
283
00:15:18,784 --> 00:15:23,689
have this nuclear risk built
in as part of the deterrent.
284
00:15:23,689 --> 00:15:25,757
It is made clear
to the Soviet Union
285
00:15:25,758 --> 00:15:29,762
that we cannot defend
ourselves...for very long
286
00:15:29,762 --> 00:15:33,165
without initiating the
use of nuclear weapons.
287
00:15:33,165 --> 00:15:37,102
Initially, hopefully on
a small and local scale,
288
00:15:37,102 --> 00:15:41,573
but with every possibility
that this would escalate
289
00:15:41,573 --> 00:15:44,610
to ultimately a major
nuclear exchange
290
00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:46,946
in which the territory of
the Soviet Union itself
291
00:15:46,946 --> 00:15:48,213
should be at risk.
292
00:15:48,213 --> 00:15:49,915
Well, this is quite deliberate.
293
00:15:49,915 --> 00:15:51,916
It is part of the
deterrent posture.
294
00:15:51,917 --> 00:15:55,854
- If NATO fires any nuclear
weapon, however small,
295
00:15:55,854 --> 00:15:59,758
then the Russians will
almost certainly respond
296
00:15:59,758 --> 00:16:02,528
with nuclear weapons because
297
00:16:02,528 --> 00:16:06,098
their nuclear weapons by and
large are rather vulnerable
298
00:16:06,098 --> 00:16:08,766
and therefore have to
be used very early on
299
00:16:08,767 --> 00:16:11,804
in a nuclear or even
conventional war.
300
00:16:12,271 --> 00:16:15,741
And therefore, the risk
of escalation is enormous;
301
00:16:15,741 --> 00:16:18,343
I would say inevitable,
and the escalation
302
00:16:18,344 --> 00:16:19,645
would be very rapid.
303
00:16:20,112 --> 00:16:21,512
And this would certainly lead
304
00:16:21,513 --> 00:16:24,883
to the total destruction
of both sides.
305
00:16:25,551 --> 00:16:28,354
- The buildup in the
Eastern side of Europe
306
00:16:28,354 --> 00:16:32,024
is a serious one...both in
the purely conventional field
307
00:16:32,024 --> 00:16:34,259
and in the nuclear field.
308
00:16:34,827 --> 00:16:36,996
Perhaps one of the most
serious aspects of it
309
00:16:36,996 --> 00:16:39,564
is that it doesn't
seem to stop...in spite
310
00:16:39,565 --> 00:16:41,867
of the fact that you've
had in the last decade
311
00:16:41,867 --> 00:16:46,505
a very tangible improvement
of political relations.
312
00:16:46,505 --> 00:16:49,908
The Soviet military effort
has not been affected by it.
313
00:16:49,908 --> 00:16:51,343
- On the surface it does appear
314
00:16:51,343 --> 00:16:52,777
that there's an
enormous preponderance
315
00:16:52,778 --> 00:16:55,314
of Soviet forces in Europe...
and one of the arguments,
316
00:16:55,314 --> 00:16:57,415
of course, advanced
is that these forces
317
00:16:57,416 --> 00:16:59,885
are too large for
defensive purposes.
318
00:16:59,885 --> 00:17:01,754
That of course is a statement
from the Western side
319
00:17:01,754 --> 00:17:03,355
and it doesn't really
take into account
320
00:17:03,355 --> 00:17:05,024
Soviet prescriptions.
321
00:17:05,023 --> 00:17:06,457
The Soviet argument
is that they have
322
00:17:06,458 --> 00:17:09,294
a large and legitimate
defensive task
323
00:17:09,294 --> 00:17:12,297
to carry out in
Europe as a whole.
324
00:17:12,297 --> 00:17:14,400
They have the defense of
their own alliance system
325
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,535
and of course their
own perimeter.
326
00:17:16,535 --> 00:17:19,571
Europe is very large,
north, central and south.
327
00:17:19,570 --> 00:17:21,874
And they must also face
a complexity of problems.
328
00:17:21,874 --> 00:17:23,075
From the Soviet point of view,
329
00:17:23,075 --> 00:17:26,512
they have not to deal
only with a NATO alliance,
330
00:17:26,512 --> 00:17:29,114
but there's always been the
problem of the local adversary,
331
00:17:29,114 --> 00:17:31,784
something with which we
have not had to deal.
332
00:17:31,784 --> 00:17:33,185
So therefore, from
the Soviet side
333
00:17:33,185 --> 00:17:37,423
they would argue that their
forces are tailored exactly
334
00:17:37,423 --> 00:17:39,591
to discharge its defensive task.
335
00:17:39,591 --> 00:17:43,562
(tanks rumbling)
336
00:17:43,562 --> 00:17:46,130
- [Ustinov] But it's the powerful
attack of those Soviet
337
00:17:46,131 --> 00:17:47,599
missiles and of armies
338
00:17:47,599 --> 00:17:50,302
much stronger than
their own that perturbs
339
00:17:50,302 --> 00:17:52,004
the generals of NATO.
340
00:17:52,004 --> 00:17:53,972
(tanks rumbling)
341
00:17:53,972 --> 00:17:56,775
They picture the Russian tanks
bursting across the border
342
00:17:56,775 --> 00:17:59,144
and charging through
West Germany,
343
00:17:59,144 --> 00:18:02,281
unstoppable by
conventional forces.
344
00:18:02,714 --> 00:18:04,917
It's not at all obvious
how such an attack
345
00:18:04,917 --> 00:18:06,784
could be in the Soviet interest,
346
00:18:06,785 --> 00:18:10,956
yet among the Western allies
the troubling vision persists.
347
00:18:10,956 --> 00:18:13,292
(tanks rumbling)
348
00:18:13,292 --> 00:18:15,526
The NATO general on
the Central Front
349
00:18:15,527 --> 00:18:17,763
happens, himself,
to be a German.
350
00:18:18,630 --> 00:18:22,401
And in this nightmare, he
might then see his own country
351
00:18:22,401 --> 00:18:25,337
turned into a
radioactive battleground
352
00:18:25,337 --> 00:18:28,706
in the desperate bid to
make the invaders go home
353
00:18:28,707 --> 00:18:31,009
before they reached the Rhine.
354
00:18:31,009 --> 00:18:37,783
(tank rumbling &
water splashing)
355
00:18:37,783 --> 00:18:41,019
Just let the unwholesome
brew of tanks and bombs
356
00:18:41,019 --> 00:18:45,791
work on your imagination and
you may feel it closing in;
357
00:18:45,791 --> 00:18:49,528
the first of our
nuclear nightmares.
358
00:18:49,561 --> 00:18:54,132
To me, one possible sequence
of events seems all too clear.
359
00:18:55,334 --> 00:18:58,370
They had to try and stop
the advance somehow,
360
00:18:58,370 --> 00:19:00,272
you understand that I hope.
361
00:19:00,873 --> 00:19:02,975
This is the last of
the coffee, I'm afraid.
362
00:19:02,975 --> 00:19:04,877
Who would've thought
that the fallout
363
00:19:04,877 --> 00:19:07,279
would keep us down
here for so long.
364
00:19:07,980 --> 00:19:12,851
Now...there's something
that I want you to believe.
365
00:19:12,851 --> 00:19:17,422
Nobody actually intended your
families to die like that,
366
00:19:17,422 --> 00:19:20,592
or your school friends
for that matter.
367
00:19:20,592 --> 00:19:25,230
The German general in
question, well...he was...
368
00:19:25,230 --> 00:19:28,100
Put yourself in his shoes
if you will for a moment.
369
00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:31,602
He was always opposed to
the use of nuclear weapons.
370
00:19:31,603 --> 00:19:33,572
In fact he said, "Do
you want me to be tried
371
00:19:33,572 --> 00:19:37,141
like a war criminal like
others were before me?"
372
00:19:37,142 --> 00:19:40,679
But, on the first
day...Soviet armor
373
00:19:40,679 --> 00:19:43,148
had advanced 40 miles
into West Germany.
374
00:19:43,148 --> 00:19:45,350
On the second day, 80 miles.
375
00:19:45,350 --> 00:19:48,453
And it was then that the
American supreme commander
376
00:19:48,453 --> 00:19:51,156
told the German general,
"We are going to stop
377
00:19:51,156 --> 00:19:54,426
this war with nuclear weapons.
378
00:19:54,426 --> 00:19:57,428
Your chancellor and
my president
379
00:19:57,429 --> 00:20:00,165
are in full
agreement about this."
380
00:20:00,766 --> 00:20:03,468
"So it's come to this,"
said the German general.
381
00:20:03,468 --> 00:20:07,339
"Well, at least, thank God,
it won't be my decision."
382
00:20:07,339 --> 00:20:09,474
"Oh, but it will my friend.
383
00:20:09,474 --> 00:20:13,477
We want you to
select the targets."
384
00:20:13,512 --> 00:20:15,246
"There must be some other way...
385
00:20:15,247 --> 00:20:18,517
If I could swing the
Netherland corps around
386
00:20:18,517 --> 00:20:21,320
onto the flank..."
but the subordinates
387
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:22,454
were getting impatient,
388
00:20:22,454 --> 00:20:25,057
although the British
general was stiff lipped.
389
00:20:25,057 --> 00:20:27,659
"There's quite a lot
of blood flowing up here.
390
00:20:27,659 --> 00:20:32,464
Although we've managed
to nudge his armor
391
00:20:32,464 --> 00:20:36,668
into a nuclear fire
zone quite effectively,
392
00:20:36,668 --> 00:20:38,303
put in a good word for us.
393
00:20:38,303 --> 00:20:40,038
There's a good chap."
394
00:20:40,839 --> 00:20:45,010
A nuclear fire zone
including villages,
395
00:20:45,010 --> 00:20:48,914
farms, people, civilians.
396
00:20:49,414 --> 00:20:51,683
The American
commander was adamant.
397
00:20:51,683 --> 00:20:56,655
"We are going to accomplish
eight nuclear strikes
398
00:20:56,655 --> 00:21:00,058
on armored spearheads
of your choice
399
00:21:00,058 --> 00:21:07,499
and we are going to send
eight missions in the rear
400
00:21:07,499 --> 00:21:10,602
in Czechoslovakia
and East Germany."
401
00:21:10,602 --> 00:21:13,071
You see, the
Americans calculated
402
00:21:13,071 --> 00:21:15,340
that they could smash
the Soviet armor
403
00:21:15,340 --> 00:21:18,909
at the same time saving
New York and Chicago,
404
00:21:18,910 --> 00:21:22,547
not Cologne and
Munich unfortunately.
405
00:21:22,547 --> 00:21:24,283
You remember the
postcard I showed you
406
00:21:24,283 --> 00:21:28,020
of Cologne cathedral. A
very beautiful one, it was.
407
00:21:28,787 --> 00:21:31,523
A German corps commander,
almost surrounded,
408
00:21:31,523 --> 00:21:33,658
added his voice to the rest.
409
00:21:33,659 --> 00:21:36,628
(speaking in German)
410
00:21:36,628 --> 00:21:40,432
"Why am I being abandoned like
von Paulus in Stalingrad?
411
00:21:40,432 --> 00:21:42,968
Where are the nuclear weapons?"
412
00:21:42,968 --> 00:21:47,806
So, at length, the
German general consented.
413
00:21:47,806 --> 00:21:52,411
"Very well, although may my
tongue rot for saying so."
414
00:21:52,411 --> 00:21:54,179
"Oh, you know.
415
00:21:54,179 --> 00:21:58,116
You know the
targets in any case."
416
00:21:58,884 --> 00:22:02,587
And so...the Germans and the
Americans were in full accord
417
00:22:02,587 --> 00:22:04,523
and on the morning
of the third day,
418
00:22:04,523 --> 00:22:10,262
the first bombs lit up the
skyline like a false dawn.
419
00:22:10,262 --> 00:22:13,965
Although as the German
general had said all along,
420
00:22:13,965 --> 00:22:16,834
why on Earth would
the Russians back down
421
00:22:16,835 --> 00:22:18,704
when they're winning?
422
00:22:19,104 --> 00:22:23,909
And of course, when the
Russians didn't back down...
423
00:22:23,909 --> 00:22:27,079
there was no logical
time or place
424
00:22:27,079 --> 00:22:30,816
for the nuclear
exchanges to cease.
425
00:22:34,252 --> 00:22:38,857
Would there be any European
cities exempt from devastation?
426
00:22:38,857 --> 00:22:41,293
Well some nations believed
that the possession
427
00:22:41,293 --> 00:22:44,529
of a nuclear force of
their own makes them safer
428
00:22:44,529 --> 00:22:49,134
and that the hostage cities
could in some sense hit back.
429
00:22:49,134 --> 00:22:53,038
The French, for instance,
hope that the possession
430
00:22:53,038 --> 00:22:56,942
of such a nuclear
force exempts Paris,
431
00:22:56,942 --> 00:23:01,279
makes it immune from
the nuclear epidemic.
432
00:23:01,313 --> 00:23:03,882
But have things changed so much
433
00:23:03,882 --> 00:23:06,151
since the Élysée Palace
here was occupied
434
00:23:06,151 --> 00:23:09,454
by Louis XV's mistress,
Madame de Pompadour,
435
00:23:09,454 --> 00:23:12,758
whose contemporary,
Voltaire, wrote so scathingly
436
00:23:12,758 --> 00:23:16,228
about the heroic
butchery of war?
437
00:23:16,261 --> 00:23:19,231
Well, I wonder what
Voltaire might have thought
438
00:23:19,231 --> 00:23:20,665
of the president of
the French Republic
439
00:23:20,665 --> 00:23:25,303
who now lives in the Élysée,
controlling from his basement
440
00:23:25,303 --> 00:23:27,973
enough nuclear power
to carry destruction
441
00:23:27,973 --> 00:23:30,575
thousands of miles away.
442
00:23:30,575 --> 00:23:33,712
In the most elegant
of headquarters,
443
00:23:33,712 --> 00:23:36,281
he has enough power
at his beck and call
444
00:23:36,281 --> 00:23:39,117
to make the war of the
Austrian Succession
445
00:23:39,117 --> 00:23:42,387
seem like an outing,
like a picnic.
446
00:23:43,789 --> 00:23:44,790
(button clicks)
447
00:23:45,957 --> 00:23:46,958
(button clicks)
448
00:23:46,958 --> 00:23:49,628
And because an enemy
might have similar power,
449
00:23:49,628 --> 00:23:53,197
France puts her command
posts underground, too.
450
00:23:53,231 --> 00:23:54,466
(phone buttons clicking)
451
00:23:56,501 --> 00:24:00,105
You don't have to
be a superpower to
build nuclear bombs,
452
00:24:00,105 --> 00:24:02,040
but you'd be
well-advised to assemble
453
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,843
the computerized
paraphernalia of modern war,
454
00:24:04,843 --> 00:24:09,648
as France has done, and
guard your bombs with care.
455
00:24:09,648 --> 00:24:11,783
(key clattering into hole
& lock clicking)
456
00:24:12,818 --> 00:24:16,321
(lock clicking)
457
00:24:16,922 --> 00:24:18,223
(door opens)
458
00:24:23,762 --> 00:24:26,965
A nuclear weapon,
author of nightmares,
459
00:24:26,965 --> 00:24:29,634
and, so the French
hope, a discouragement
460
00:24:29,634 --> 00:24:29,668
and, so the French
hope, a discouragement
to potential enemies.
461
00:24:29,668 --> 00:24:31,602
to potential enemies.
462
00:24:33,905 --> 00:24:36,942
It's hard to grasp that
the gleaming object
463
00:24:36,942 --> 00:24:40,111
has so much death in it to be
scattered indiscriminately
464
00:24:40,111 --> 00:24:44,182
by heat, blast, fire,
and atomic radiation.
465
00:24:44,182 --> 00:24:46,218
(footsteps)
466
00:24:46,218 --> 00:24:48,320
But we'd deceive
ourselves if we didn't see
467
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,554
that the French are
really rather proud
468
00:24:50,555 --> 00:24:53,625
of the standing attached to
the possession of the bomb.
469
00:24:53,625 --> 00:24:56,361
After all, who isn't?
470
00:24:56,361 --> 00:25:05,337
(airplane engine accelerating)
471
00:25:05,337 --> 00:25:07,806
Their supersonic bombers
represent only one
472
00:25:07,806 --> 00:25:09,708
of the methods that
the French employ
473
00:25:09,708 --> 00:25:14,379
for fighting or threatening
to fight a nuclear war.
474
00:25:14,379 --> 00:25:18,949
They have ballistic missiles,
too, entirely homemade,
475
00:25:18,950 --> 00:25:22,320
here going by road
under plain cover
476
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,090
to a base in the
south of the country.
477
00:25:25,090 --> 00:25:37,334
(trucks rumbling)
478
00:25:37,335 --> 00:25:40,171
The missiles a la
maison are capable
479
00:25:40,171 --> 00:25:43,708
of hurling H-bombs as far
as Moscow, for instance,
480
00:25:43,708 --> 00:25:46,678
or over any lesser distance.
481
00:25:47,846 --> 00:25:51,783
The key that could do it
makes an unusual halter.
482
00:25:52,450 --> 00:25:53,985
- Bonjour.
- Bonjour.
483
00:25:54,452 --> 00:26:01,960
(speaking in French)
484
00:26:02,327 --> 00:26:03,695
- The weapons are meant to deter
485
00:26:03,695 --> 00:26:06,764
any nuclear attack
and warn all comers
486
00:26:06,765 --> 00:26:09,401
that the French won't be
walked over next time.
487
00:26:09,401 --> 00:26:18,109
(speaking in French)
488
00:26:19,311 --> 00:26:22,112
They could also help to
shield Western Europe...
489
00:26:22,547 --> 00:26:24,716
so the French spare
no expense in keeping
490
00:26:24,716 --> 00:26:27,017
their missiles up to scratch.
491
00:26:28,820 --> 00:26:30,889
But they don't want all
the rest of the world
492
00:26:30,889 --> 00:26:33,425
joining the nuclear club.
493
00:26:33,925 --> 00:26:36,061
(speaking in French)
494
00:26:36,061 --> 00:26:39,364
Their tour de force
you'll find at rest.
495
00:26:39,364 --> 00:26:41,700
The submarines that
skulk under the sea,
496
00:26:41,700 --> 00:26:44,502
each carrying 16 missiles.
497
00:26:44,536 --> 00:26:46,471
They could easily
obliterate the chief cities
498
00:26:46,471 --> 00:26:47,706
of any enemy.
499
00:26:47,706 --> 00:26:51,042
(speaking in French)
500
00:26:51,042 --> 00:26:53,278
But if the French think they
need them, why not everyone?
501
00:26:53,278 --> 00:26:55,880
Why not Brazilian
missiles and submarines
502
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,249
or Korean nuclear bombers?
503
00:26:58,249 --> 00:26:59,517
(water splashing)
504
00:26:59,517 --> 00:27:03,288
The United States first made
the bomb for fear of Hitler.
505
00:27:03,288 --> 00:27:05,757
Then Russia fearing
the Americans.
506
00:27:05,757 --> 00:27:08,360
Next came the British,
their nuclear submarines
507
00:27:08,360 --> 00:27:12,697
and bombers now loyally
assigned to NATO.
508
00:27:12,697 --> 00:27:16,967
Then France, firmly
asserting her independence.
509
00:27:16,968 --> 00:27:19,638
The Chinese, who followed,
think that nuclear war
510
00:27:19,638 --> 00:27:21,305
is bound to come.
511
00:27:21,306 --> 00:27:25,877
Inevitably perhaps, it
was India's bomb next.
512
00:27:27,045 --> 00:27:29,514
By all accounts, Israel
now possesses the bomb
513
00:27:29,514 --> 00:27:32,550
and perhaps South Africa, too,
514
00:27:32,550 --> 00:27:35,620
while Pakistan is
striving to follow suit.
515
00:27:35,620 --> 00:27:38,289
So the bomb is proliferating
through the hotter regions
516
00:27:38,289 --> 00:27:40,425
of the world, despite
all the efforts
517
00:27:40,425 --> 00:27:42,627
of the diplomats to prevent it.
518
00:27:42,627 --> 00:27:44,696
Will the seven or eight
who have it so far
519
00:27:44,696 --> 00:27:47,866
soon be 18 and then 80?
520
00:27:49,034 --> 00:27:52,070
There's a new form of
racism which suggests
521
00:27:52,070 --> 00:27:54,438
that nuclear weapons
are respectable,
522
00:27:54,439 --> 00:27:57,575
but only for rich,
predominantly white countries.
523
00:27:57,575 --> 00:28:00,311
After all, it's rather
grand to be a superpower.
524
00:28:00,311 --> 00:28:03,081
You can continue to
improve your weapons
525
00:28:03,081 --> 00:28:06,283
while preaching
piously about peace.
526
00:28:06,284 --> 00:28:08,687
If you are a smaller
nation with only a very few
527
00:28:08,687 --> 00:28:11,589
nuclear weapons, then I'm
afraid this is irresponsible,
528
00:28:11,589 --> 00:28:11,623
nuclear weapons, then I'm
afraid this is irresponsible,
if not criminal.
529
00:28:11,623 --> 00:28:13,725
if not criminal.
530
00:28:14,225 --> 00:28:18,963
Well, whether there is
or not any wisdom at all
531
00:28:18,963 --> 00:28:22,734
in this hypocrisy,
proliferation would seem
532
00:28:22,734 --> 00:28:27,205
to point a second way
towards a holocaust,
533
00:28:27,205 --> 00:28:30,574
this time through the less
affluent parts of the world.
534
00:28:30,575 --> 00:28:33,044
And the greatest
danger of all lies here
535
00:28:33,044 --> 00:28:35,346
in the narrow streets
of the Middle East
536
00:28:35,346 --> 00:28:39,250
where modern technology
serves ancient bitterness.
537
00:28:39,250 --> 00:28:43,054
(indistinct chatter)
538
00:28:43,054 --> 00:28:45,590
The global bazaar for
nuclear merchandise
539
00:28:45,590 --> 00:28:48,226
is not easy to
police and anyone can
540
00:28:48,226 --> 00:28:51,062
equip himself for making bombs.
541
00:28:51,996 --> 00:28:54,265
- We and the Soviets...
542
00:28:55,333 --> 00:28:59,437
have set a very bad example
to the rest of the world in
543
00:28:59,437 --> 00:29:04,442
essentially demonstrating
that nuclear weapons...
544
00:29:04,476 --> 00:29:09,714
are the main instrument
of our foreign policy.
545
00:29:11,750 --> 00:29:16,888
And essentially are
the main support
546
00:29:16,888 --> 00:29:19,791
of our status as a superpower.
547
00:29:20,558 --> 00:29:22,894
That being the case,
it's awfully difficult
548
00:29:22,894 --> 00:29:25,997
to convince anybody
else not to have them.
549
00:29:25,997 --> 00:29:27,899
- All these countries
that are interested
550
00:29:27,899 --> 00:29:29,801
in the acquisition
of nuclear weapons
551
00:29:29,834 --> 00:29:32,604
have generally hostile neighbors
552
00:29:32,604 --> 00:29:37,041
and you have what you call
"odd couples" in country A
553
00:29:37,041 --> 00:29:39,144
and country B, and you
have some examples.
554
00:29:39,144 --> 00:29:42,781
For example, in South
Asia, that are very hostile
555
00:29:42,781 --> 00:29:44,948
and are both interested
in nuclear weapons.
556
00:29:44,949 --> 00:29:48,019
It's quite clear that
if country A decides
557
00:29:48,019 --> 00:29:49,120
to acquire nuclear weapons,
558
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,790
country B will
follow the example.
559
00:29:51,790 --> 00:29:55,726
And so very dangerous
nuclear arms threats
560
00:29:55,727 --> 00:29:56,928
would be triggered.
561
00:29:56,928 --> 00:29:59,864
- I was astounded that the
United States governement
562
00:29:59,864 --> 00:30:02,000
has declassified so
much information,
563
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,436
it's available at places here
like the Library of Congress,
564
00:30:05,436 --> 00:30:09,640
that a single competent
individual could easily
565
00:30:09,641 --> 00:30:11,876
design fission bombs
and I think carry them
566
00:30:11,876 --> 00:30:13,077
through to construction.
567
00:30:13,077 --> 00:30:15,814
There's no doubt in my
mind that a small group
568
00:30:15,814 --> 00:30:19,450
of motivated organized
people, even perhaps people
569
00:30:19,450 --> 00:30:21,352
not very highly
technically trained
570
00:30:21,352 --> 00:30:25,790
such as terrorists, could
conceive and bring to fruition,
571
00:30:25,790 --> 00:30:28,993
a nuclear weapons
construction project.
572
00:30:29,027 --> 00:30:31,229
- Any country to date
573
00:30:31,229 --> 00:30:33,598
that has decided
to develop a bomb,
574
00:30:33,598 --> 00:30:36,401
a crude, maybe
crude fission bomb,
575
00:30:36,401 --> 00:30:39,370
has been successful
on the first try.
576
00:30:39,404 --> 00:30:40,605
So looking in the future,
577
00:30:40,605 --> 00:30:44,809
I don't expect to see
countries actually detonate
578
00:30:44,809 --> 00:30:46,377
their first weapon.
579
00:30:46,377 --> 00:30:48,812
I think that they will
know whether or not
580
00:30:48,813 --> 00:30:51,382
they are in a position
to have a weapon.
581
00:30:51,382 --> 00:30:54,552
Clearly the collected
wisdom of the world
582
00:30:54,552 --> 00:30:57,889
is that Israelis,
Israel has a bomb,
583
00:30:57,889 --> 00:30:59,957
but they've never tested it.
584
00:31:00,658 --> 00:31:03,761
And I think that's what you're
going to see in the future.
585
00:31:03,761 --> 00:31:06,831
- [Ustinov] Spies and nuclear
experts seem to agree
586
00:31:06,831 --> 00:31:10,267
it's at Dimona that
Israel makes her bombs.
587
00:31:10,268 --> 00:31:12,971
Even though the signs
would have it otherwise.
588
00:31:12,971 --> 00:31:14,772
(truck rumbling past)
589
00:31:14,772 --> 00:31:18,309
The plant itself has been kept
from prying eyes for years.
590
00:31:18,810 --> 00:31:20,645
But won't Israel's
nuclear efforts
591
00:31:20,645 --> 00:31:24,048
simply spur her enemies
along the same road?
592
00:31:25,984 --> 00:31:29,454
The holy city of Christians,
Jews, and Muslims;
593
00:31:29,454 --> 00:31:31,856
the order is strictly
alphabetical.
594
00:31:31,856 --> 00:31:34,192
It has been the focal
point for conflict
595
00:31:34,192 --> 00:31:35,960
for thousands of years.
596
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,630
Jerusalem is at this
time in Israeli hands,
597
00:31:38,630 --> 00:31:41,399
but you can look north
towards the Soviet Union,
598
00:31:41,399 --> 00:31:44,968
with its Muslim minorities
and affiliations,
599
00:31:44,969 --> 00:31:48,773
east towards a patchwork
of Muslim states,
600
00:31:48,773 --> 00:31:50,908
patient yet unforgiving,
601
00:31:50,909 --> 00:31:55,546
south towards Mecca, the
power of religion and of oil,
602
00:31:55,546 --> 00:31:59,951
and west towards America,
Israel's powerful friend.
603
00:31:59,951 --> 00:32:03,855
It is hard to see how an
eventual nuclear anarchy
604
00:32:03,855 --> 00:32:06,324
can be avoided in this area.
605
00:32:06,758 --> 00:32:10,995
Already in very few
years several states
606
00:32:10,995 --> 00:32:13,464
could have bombs of their own,
607
00:32:13,464 --> 00:32:17,802
to say nothing of
certain minority groups.
608
00:32:17,802 --> 00:32:20,772
Even with a bomb smaller
than that of Hiroshima,
609
00:32:20,772 --> 00:32:23,206
maddened men could
be responsible
610
00:32:23,207 --> 00:32:25,710
for hundreds and
thousands of deaths,
611
00:32:25,710 --> 00:32:29,414
a tragedy which would be
attributable to man's folly,
612
00:32:29,414 --> 00:32:33,618
or here, to the wrath of God.
613
00:32:36,754 --> 00:32:39,490
I don't suppose we'll
ever really know
614
00:32:39,490 --> 00:32:42,293
who blew up Jerusalem.
615
00:32:42,927 --> 00:32:45,830
Nowadays it seems as long ago
616
00:32:45,830 --> 00:32:49,266
as the fall of
Babylon, doesn't it?
617
00:32:49,267 --> 00:32:52,704
At the time it
perplexed and alarmed
618
00:32:52,704 --> 00:32:54,839
the Israeli prime minister
and horrified him,
619
00:32:54,839 --> 00:32:56,607
as it did everyone else.
620
00:32:57,275 --> 00:32:59,711
Oh I wish people wouldn't
cut up newspapers.
621
00:32:59,711 --> 00:33:02,413
You know they're relics
for students of history,
622
00:33:02,413 --> 00:33:06,084
even for amateurs like
myself who are trying
623
00:33:06,084 --> 00:33:10,621
to...imagine how this war began.
624
00:33:11,956 --> 00:33:15,860
Oh talking about amateurs,
the Israeli Secret Service
625
00:33:15,860 --> 00:33:18,663
was very active at the
time that the amateurs
626
00:33:18,663 --> 00:33:21,099
first got hold of the bomb.
627
00:33:21,766 --> 00:33:27,538
Just after those first
two...hideous explosions...
628
00:33:27,538 --> 00:33:31,642
bungled explosions at
Belfast and at Lisbon,
629
00:33:31,642 --> 00:33:33,678
the Israelis...where is it?
630
00:33:34,545 --> 00:33:39,017
Oh yes...an Israeli
government spokesman said,
631
00:33:39,017 --> 00:33:41,652
"We warned the British
and Portuguese authorities
632
00:33:41,652 --> 00:33:44,889
that nuclear weapons
were now circulating
633
00:33:44,889 --> 00:33:47,291
among unofficial groups."
634
00:33:47,291 --> 00:33:51,428
Well, Israel's own problems
were about to start
635
00:33:51,429 --> 00:33:53,564
on that Sunday, or...
636
00:33:54,032 --> 00:33:56,934
No, it must've been the Monday
637
00:33:56,934 --> 00:34:01,172
when two El Al airliners
were shot down by missiles
638
00:34:01,172 --> 00:34:05,410
and Ben Gurion Airport
was subsequently closed.
639
00:34:05,410 --> 00:34:08,613
The secretary of
state remonstrated,
640
00:34:08,612 --> 00:34:11,081
"The Soviets are supplying
Middle Eastern countries
641
00:34:11,081 --> 00:34:12,717
with surface to air missiles
642
00:34:12,717 --> 00:34:15,820
of unnecessary sophistication."
643
00:34:15,820 --> 00:34:18,056
And the Israelis
immediately plunged
644
00:34:18,056 --> 00:34:21,926
into the Lebanon for
the umpteenth time.
645
00:34:21,926 --> 00:34:25,228
But now, to report
catastrophic losses
646
00:34:25,228 --> 00:34:26,997
to their prime minister
and the fact that they
647
00:34:26,998 --> 00:34:28,933
had lost control of the air.
648
00:34:28,933 --> 00:34:31,201
"There will be a time
for mourning later,"
649
00:34:31,202 --> 00:34:33,938
said the Israeli prime
minister to the Knesset.
650
00:34:33,938 --> 00:34:37,608
He didn't know
how much mourning.
651
00:34:37,608 --> 00:34:40,178
Or on the Wednesday,
a small nuclear device
652
00:34:40,178 --> 00:34:43,480
blew up the ancient
walled city of Jerusalem
653
00:34:43,481 --> 00:34:47,285
with its predominantly
Arabic population
654
00:34:47,284 --> 00:34:49,654
and all its holy places.
655
00:34:49,654 --> 00:34:55,592
While the news of
this act of folly
656
00:34:55,592 --> 00:34:59,629
was still reverberating
around the world,
657
00:34:59,630 --> 00:35:02,567
it could be supposed that
the Israeli prime minister
658
00:35:02,567 --> 00:35:04,435
was saying, "How
do we retaliate?
659
00:35:04,435 --> 00:35:05,903
Who do I hit?"
660
00:35:05,903 --> 00:35:09,272
But, his advisors were
as baffled as he.
661
00:35:09,273 --> 00:35:13,911
The next day on television
the Palestinian leader,
662
00:35:13,911 --> 00:35:19,851
in tears, said "Why should
we destroy our national home?
663
00:35:19,851 --> 00:35:22,086
The place that
we have cherished
664
00:35:22,086 --> 00:35:23,754
and suffered for so long.
665
00:35:23,754 --> 00:35:25,623
We are not mad!"
666
00:35:25,623 --> 00:35:29,093
But of course there
were those that did
667
00:35:29,093 --> 00:35:33,196
claim responsibility
for this hideous act...
668
00:35:34,265 --> 00:35:35,900
...various groups.
669
00:35:36,601 --> 00:35:40,638
The Lisbon Red
Heroes, Dark December,
670
00:35:40,638 --> 00:35:45,143
others too numerous and
too psychotic to mention.
671
00:35:46,177 --> 00:35:48,479
The American and the
Soviet fleets converged
672
00:35:48,479 --> 00:35:52,649
on the coast while their
governments remained in contact,
673
00:35:52,650 --> 00:35:57,722
attempting to, as they said,
"defuse" the Middle East.
674
00:35:57,755 --> 00:36:02,026
The Israeli prime
minister protested...
675
00:36:02,059 --> 00:36:04,362
"The superpowers
are trying to take
676
00:36:04,362 --> 00:36:07,532
even our tragedies
out of our hands...
677
00:36:07,532 --> 00:36:11,369
...and what's this you tell me
about Saudi Arabian bombers
678
00:36:11,369 --> 00:36:13,804
on Amman Airfield?
679
00:36:13,804 --> 00:36:16,407
I want an Entebbe-like raid!
680
00:36:16,407 --> 00:36:19,977
I want you to seize all the
nuclear devices they have."
681
00:36:19,977 --> 00:36:23,381
But...the commanders were
blown out of the air.
682
00:36:23,381 --> 00:36:26,049
The prime minister
saw the net closing.
683
00:36:26,050 --> 00:36:26,918
"What?
684
00:36:27,418 --> 00:36:31,589
The Libyans have agreed
to give nuclear bombs
685
00:36:31,589 --> 00:36:32,890
to the Lebanese?
686
00:36:32,890 --> 00:36:37,962
The Pakistanis have already
done so to the Syrians?"
687
00:36:39,030 --> 00:36:42,667
Trembling for his cities,
the Israeli prime minister
688
00:36:42,667 --> 00:36:46,337
authorized nuclear strikes
against Amman, Damascus.
689
00:36:46,337 --> 00:36:49,173
"Yes, and Beirut!" he cried.
690
00:36:49,707 --> 00:36:56,147
And so...on the eve of
sabbath in that subcontinent
691
00:36:56,147 --> 00:37:01,352
of prophets, cataclysms
began to rival...
692
00:37:01,352 --> 00:37:04,154
the Book of Revelations.
693
00:37:04,188 --> 00:37:07,458
And since the
superpowers were unable
694
00:37:07,458 --> 00:37:11,729
to disentangle
themselves, the madness
695
00:37:11,729 --> 00:37:16,267
eventually engulfed us all.
696
00:37:18,703 --> 00:37:21,339
The Americans and the
Russians are at pains
697
00:37:21,339 --> 00:37:24,542
to avoid war by
mishap, and for this
698
00:37:24,542 --> 00:37:27,345
they employ military
intelligence,
699
00:37:27,345 --> 00:37:31,448
high speed communication,
and very complicated systems
700
00:37:31,449 --> 00:37:35,419
of what they call
command and control.
701
00:37:35,453 --> 00:37:39,156
Any loss of control
would automatically
702
00:37:39,156 --> 00:37:43,861
entail a third route
into a nuclear war.
703
00:37:43,894 --> 00:37:49,232
These controls are, of course,
very highly guarded secrets.
704
00:37:49,233 --> 00:37:52,570
But what is fairly obvious is
that the systems themselves
705
00:37:52,570 --> 00:37:54,639
would come under
immediate attack
706
00:37:54,639 --> 00:37:56,774
in the event of hostilities.
707
00:37:56,774 --> 00:38:00,978
And here, Fylingdales Moor
in the north of England,
708
00:38:00,978 --> 00:38:03,748
would probably be hit in
the first few minutes.
709
00:38:03,748 --> 00:38:04,448
Why?
710
00:38:04,448 --> 00:38:07,817
Because it has become
one of the nostrils
711
00:38:07,818 --> 00:38:09,654
of the American high command,
712
00:38:09,654 --> 00:38:14,558
endlessly sniffing the
air for signs of danger.
713
00:38:14,558 --> 00:38:19,430
And inside those round
objects are radars
714
00:38:19,430 --> 00:38:23,768
which warn of the approach
of ballistic missiles.
715
00:38:24,935 --> 00:38:27,872
Meanwhile, high above the
Earth, there are satellites
716
00:38:27,872 --> 00:38:31,375
looking out for the first
glow of rocket engines.
717
00:38:32,443 --> 00:38:34,612
And it's in the frozen
north that the other
718
00:38:34,612 --> 00:38:37,415
early warning outposts stand.
719
00:38:37,415 --> 00:38:39,683
That's because the
missile flight paths
720
00:38:39,684 --> 00:38:43,387
between the superpowers
would mainly pass this way.
721
00:38:47,525 --> 00:38:52,697
The giant radars never rest in
Greenland or here in Alaska.
722
00:38:52,697 --> 00:38:56,300
(wind howling)
723
00:38:57,168 --> 00:39:00,638
The military planners believe,
or pretend to believe,
724
00:39:00,638 --> 00:39:02,206
that a missile
attack might burst
725
00:39:02,206 --> 00:39:05,042
upon the United
States at any time.
726
00:39:05,042 --> 00:39:08,346
In that event, they'd have
less than half an hour's notice
727
00:39:08,346 --> 00:39:12,149
before the nuclear warheads
arrived at their targets.
728
00:39:12,149 --> 00:39:16,252
(machine humming &
footsteps down ladder)
729
00:39:16,253 --> 00:39:17,955
So the news from the big radars
730
00:39:17,955 --> 00:39:20,790
goes straight to Colorado
and the chief defenders
731
00:39:20,791 --> 00:39:23,894
of a continent who
man their headquarters
732
00:39:23,894 --> 00:39:27,131
at Cheyenne Mountain
day and night;
733
00:39:27,131 --> 00:39:29,299
the North American
Air Defense Command,
734
00:39:29,300 --> 00:39:31,235
usually known as NORAD.
735
00:39:32,803 --> 00:39:36,307
(vehicle engine rumbling)
736
00:39:36,307 --> 00:39:39,243
Because they're so vital
for command and control,
737
00:39:39,243 --> 00:39:43,180
the NORAD staff put 1400 feet
of granite between themselves
738
00:39:43,180 --> 00:39:45,582
and the fragile world outside.
739
00:39:45,583 --> 00:39:46,717
(phone rings)
740
00:39:48,853 --> 00:39:50,755
And NORAD's computers
would announce
741
00:39:50,755 --> 00:39:54,492
any massive attack,
where it's coming from...
742
00:39:54,492 --> 00:39:56,694
and what's more to the
point, where the missiles
743
00:39:56,694 --> 00:39:58,962
can be expected to fall.
744
00:40:00,131 --> 00:40:04,502
- The detection would
be almost instantaneous.
745
00:40:05,336 --> 00:40:08,004
The reliability is very high.
746
00:40:08,005 --> 00:40:10,307
The warning time, of
course, would depend
747
00:40:10,307 --> 00:40:14,245
on where the missile
was launched from
748
00:40:14,245 --> 00:40:17,013
since it's a matter of
flight time of the missile.
749
00:40:17,014 --> 00:40:19,950
And the same way
with a submarine.
750
00:40:19,950 --> 00:40:21,452
The warning time
then would depend
751
00:40:21,452 --> 00:40:23,921
on where the submarine
was when it launched.
752
00:40:23,921 --> 00:40:27,957
Attacks upon the sensors
could make us blind and deaf...
753
00:40:28,893 --> 00:40:33,130
but we have overlapping
and redundant systems
754
00:40:33,130 --> 00:40:36,934
and to knock them all out
would be a sizable effort,
755
00:40:36,934 --> 00:40:40,671
and to do so would be
considered an act of war.
756
00:40:43,741 --> 00:40:46,009
- [Ustinov] Even in peacetime
the radar outposts
757
00:40:46,010 --> 00:40:48,512
have plenty to do,
reporting to NORAD
758
00:40:48,512 --> 00:40:51,348
on all the satellites
that circle the Earth.
759
00:40:51,348 --> 00:40:53,284
Most of them have
war-like functions
760
00:40:53,284 --> 00:40:55,286
and some could make mischief.
761
00:40:57,455 --> 00:41:00,223
The watchers see the
superpowers using spacecraft
762
00:41:00,224 --> 00:41:03,427
more and more for military
command and control.
763
00:41:04,061 --> 00:41:06,931
They rely on them for
spying, for early warning,
764
00:41:06,931 --> 00:41:09,300
for their world-wide
communications.
765
00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:11,402
They are tempting
targets indeed.
766
00:41:11,402 --> 00:41:14,138
(machine clicking loudly)
767
00:41:14,138 --> 00:41:16,106
And from time to
time NORAD spots
768
00:41:16,106 --> 00:41:18,542
anti-satellite
devices under test.
769
00:41:18,542 --> 00:41:23,346
- 10382, the kernel set is 485.
(machine clicking loudly)
770
00:41:23,347 --> 00:41:26,717
- Every medium that
man has entered before
771
00:41:26,717 --> 00:41:31,322
he has found ultimately some
way to conduct warfare in it.
772
00:41:31,322 --> 00:41:34,325
Now, whether or not
there's going to be warfare
773
00:41:34,325 --> 00:41:38,863
in space I think is more a
matter for mankind to decide.
774
00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:41,499
- [Ustinov] For those
of us still stranded
775
00:41:41,499 --> 00:41:44,067
on this planet, the
chain of command comes
776
00:41:44,068 --> 00:41:46,570
to its bitter end with
the missile crews.
777
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,541
On the windy plains
of North Dakota
778
00:41:50,541 --> 00:41:52,476
they never know that
the president's order
779
00:41:52,476 --> 00:41:56,213
won't come today to fire
their missiles in anger.
780
00:41:56,714 --> 00:41:58,249
But how can anyone make certain
781
00:41:58,249 --> 00:42:00,317
that they'll never
shoot without authority
782
00:42:00,317 --> 00:42:04,455
and yet never fail to shoot
if their nation requires it?
783
00:42:06,290 --> 00:42:08,325
When the crews
change their shifts,
784
00:42:08,325 --> 00:42:10,895
the brother officers are
cool and punctilious.
785
00:42:10,895 --> 00:42:12,229
- You ready to brief our status?
786
00:42:12,229 --> 00:42:13,663
- Okay.
787
00:42:13,664 --> 00:42:15,399
LCB status is normal.
788
00:42:15,399 --> 00:42:16,734
- Very good.
789
00:42:16,734 --> 00:42:18,302
Communications status?
790
00:42:18,302 --> 00:42:19,770
- The radios are
all operational.
791
00:42:19,770 --> 00:42:20,771
- Okay.
792
00:42:21,272 --> 00:42:22,606
Launch switches?
793
00:42:24,675 --> 00:42:27,478
Check the launch
switch first over here.
794
00:42:30,681 --> 00:42:32,416
- Launch switch...
795
00:42:33,050 --> 00:42:34,618
- [Ustinov] The new
commander won't take charge
796
00:42:34,618 --> 00:42:36,320
of the missiles until he's given
797
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,523
the control capsule a
thorough inspection.
798
00:42:39,523 --> 00:42:41,325
There must be no funny
business down here
799
00:42:41,325 --> 00:42:43,359
with our world at stake.
800
00:42:44,495 --> 00:42:45,763
- [Officer] It's good.
801
00:42:45,763 --> 00:42:46,529
- Okay.
802
00:42:46,730 --> 00:42:48,232
Did you check the keys already?
803
00:42:48,232 --> 00:42:48,832
- Yeah.
804
00:42:48,832 --> 00:42:51,000
- Okay, you want check our locks
and make sure they're on?
805
00:42:51,001 --> 00:42:54,138
(locks rattling)
806
00:42:54,838 --> 00:42:56,774
Well, there's your lock.
- Okay.
807
00:42:57,174 --> 00:42:58,942
- You guys have a good one.
- Okay, have a good one.
808
00:42:58,943 --> 00:42:59,710
- Safe trip back.
809
00:42:59,710 --> 00:43:00,978
- Take care.
- See you tomorrow.
810
00:43:01,946 --> 00:43:04,748
- Well, let's go on
our inspections.
811
00:43:05,182 --> 00:43:08,218
- [Ustinov] On these young men
falls direct responsibility
812
00:43:08,218 --> 00:43:12,489
for 30 H-bombs, the warheads
of 10 Minuteman missiles
813
00:43:12,489 --> 00:43:14,625
of intercontinental range.
814
00:43:14,959 --> 00:43:16,560
(machine beeping)
815
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:20,230
Once the missiles have gone,
they can't be called back.
816
00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:21,765
- This is the missile
launch checklist.
817
00:43:21,765 --> 00:43:23,634
Step one, launch
keys inserted.
818
00:43:23,634 --> 00:43:25,569
(seatbelts clattering)
819
00:43:26,070 --> 00:43:29,306
- [Ustinov] Even here, presumably
safe from all intruders,
820
00:43:29,306 --> 00:43:32,476
the keys that can unlock
death for millions of people
821
00:43:32,476 --> 00:43:34,545
are not left lying around.
822
00:43:35,112 --> 00:43:38,082
And to launch the missiles,
two are not enough.
823
00:43:38,916 --> 00:43:41,552
- Inserted commander.
- Inserted deputy.
824
00:43:41,885 --> 00:43:44,188
- The four key system
is a system used
825
00:43:44,188 --> 00:43:48,058
to ensure the correct
launch and authorized launch
826
00:43:48,058 --> 00:43:50,728
of the Minuteman missile force.
827
00:43:50,728 --> 00:43:52,963
Four keys is the
minimum amount required
828
00:43:52,963 --> 00:43:55,199
to launch any Minuteman missile.
829
00:43:55,199 --> 00:43:57,468
Two keys are in each
capsule, one for the deputy
830
00:43:57,468 --> 00:43:59,203
and one for myself,
the commander.
831
00:43:59,203 --> 00:44:00,504
When we turn our keys together,
832
00:44:00,504 --> 00:44:03,107
we constitute one launch vote.
833
00:44:03,107 --> 00:44:05,609
Our one launch vote combined
with the one launch vote
834
00:44:05,609 --> 00:44:07,077
of another launch control center
835
00:44:07,077 --> 00:44:09,346
to which we are
electrically connected
836
00:44:09,346 --> 00:44:13,617
allows the four key
system to come into effect
837
00:44:13,617 --> 00:44:16,453
and constitutes an
authorized launch command.
838
00:44:16,453 --> 00:44:18,856
In the event an unauthorized
command is sent,
839
00:44:18,856 --> 00:44:20,891
we have what we call an
inhibit launch command
840
00:44:20,891 --> 00:44:24,895
which is used to cancel
out the unauthorized order.
841
00:44:24,895 --> 00:44:25,696
- Enable.
842
00:44:25,696 --> 00:44:27,096
(indistinct conversation)
843
00:44:27,097 --> 00:44:28,899
- Depress illuminated.
844
00:44:29,933 --> 00:44:31,802
- [Radio] Charlie,
Bravo, Echo.
845
00:44:32,269 --> 00:44:33,703
- Launcher, this is
Alpha and we need
846
00:44:33,704 --> 00:44:35,939
a key turn in five seconds.
847
00:44:36,740 --> 00:44:37,774
- [Radio] Bravo.
848
00:44:38,542 --> 00:44:41,178
Charlie, Delta, Echo.
849
00:44:41,178 --> 00:44:43,147
- Okay launch
switch, hands on keys.
850
00:44:43,147 --> 00:44:43,846
- Hands on.
851
00:44:43,847 --> 00:44:46,050
- Three, two, one, mark.
852
00:44:46,050 --> 00:44:46,717
(key clicks)
853
00:44:46,717 --> 00:44:47,685
- Key turn.
854
00:44:48,218 --> 00:44:53,357
(machine buzzing)
855
00:44:54,892 --> 00:44:57,794
I have one gone,
two is missile away.
856
00:44:57,795 --> 00:44:58,962
Four is gone.
857
00:44:59,396 --> 00:45:00,664
- In order to
become a missileer,
858
00:45:00,664 --> 00:45:02,966
you have to be very
carefully screened.
859
00:45:02,966 --> 00:45:05,669
Any person who exhibits
unstable behavior
860
00:45:05,669 --> 00:45:07,203
such as a heavy drinking problem
861
00:45:07,204 --> 00:45:09,106
or develops a serious
marital problem
862
00:45:09,106 --> 00:45:13,310
or something more personal,
he would be removed from duty.
863
00:45:13,744 --> 00:45:16,780
Only the most mentally
fit and prepared people
864
00:45:16,780 --> 00:45:19,083
are permitted to pull
missile alert duty
865
00:45:19,083 --> 00:45:21,051
and SAC bomber duty.
866
00:45:21,785 --> 00:45:23,886
- [Ustinov] The missiles
and bombers of SAC,
867
00:45:23,887 --> 00:45:26,290
Strategic Air Command,
are controlled
868
00:45:26,290 --> 00:45:30,194
from an underground command
post here at Omaha, Nebraska.
869
00:45:30,627 --> 00:45:33,529
Launching the missiles
usually requires proper orders
870
00:45:33,530 --> 00:45:36,033
relayed from the
highest in the land,
871
00:45:36,033 --> 00:45:38,634
but the SAC command
post may not be buried
872
00:45:38,635 --> 00:45:40,671
deep enough to
escape destruction.
873
00:45:40,671 --> 00:45:43,073
Indeed, attacks on
key headquarters
874
00:45:43,073 --> 00:45:46,410
might leave the superpower
like a beheaded dragon
875
00:45:46,410 --> 00:45:48,112
unable to strike back.
876
00:45:48,545 --> 00:45:51,982
An unusual aircraft tries
to avoid that outcome.
877
00:45:51,982 --> 00:45:57,955
(plane roaring)
878
00:45:57,955 --> 00:46:00,657
Anticipating the
chaos of nuclear war,
879
00:46:00,657 --> 00:46:03,861
the generals of SAC take turns
in providing another channel
880
00:46:03,861 --> 00:46:08,098
of command in the comparative
safety of the air.
881
00:46:08,098 --> 00:46:11,168
It has a codename,
Looking Glass.
882
00:46:11,168 --> 00:46:14,972
- This airborne command
post, which has been flying,
883
00:46:14,972 --> 00:46:19,009
or an airplane similar to
this, for the past 17 years,
884
00:46:19,009 --> 00:46:21,845
offers our commander in
chief and the national
885
00:46:21,845 --> 00:46:25,982
command authorities a method
to maintain connectivity
886
00:46:25,983 --> 00:46:28,919
or communications with
all the organizations
887
00:46:28,919 --> 00:46:30,654
that we are responsible for
888
00:46:30,654 --> 00:46:33,023
within the Strategic
Air Command.
889
00:46:33,023 --> 00:46:36,126
We will never be
caught unawares.
890
00:46:36,126 --> 00:46:39,496
We'll always be able to
maintain communications
891
00:46:39,496 --> 00:46:42,132
between the national
command authorities
892
00:46:42,132 --> 00:46:44,768
and the Strategic
Air Command forces.
893
00:46:45,469 --> 00:46:47,604
Aboard several of our airplanes,
894
00:46:47,604 --> 00:46:49,673
including this
particular airplane,
895
00:46:49,673 --> 00:46:53,977
we have the ability to
launch the Minuteman missiles
896
00:46:53,977 --> 00:46:56,712
if in fact circumstances
on the ground
897
00:46:56,713 --> 00:46:59,349
would prevent them
from being launched
898
00:46:59,349 --> 00:47:01,518
under execution orders
899
00:47:01,518 --> 00:47:03,453
from the national
command authorities.
900
00:47:03,453 --> 00:47:05,622
(buttons clicking
& computers humming)
901
00:47:05,622 --> 00:47:06,623
(paper rustling)
902
00:47:06,623 --> 00:47:12,529
(buttons clicking
& computers humming)
903
00:47:12,529 --> 00:47:14,464
- The reasoning is
straightforward.
904
00:47:14,464 --> 00:47:18,769
In this Looking Glass,
stranger far than Alice's,
905
00:47:18,769 --> 00:47:23,006
we see a disturbing sight;
the pilots looking down
906
00:47:23,006 --> 00:47:26,375
on ruination, on
incinerated cities,
907
00:47:26,376 --> 00:47:28,445
military targets crushed.
908
00:47:28,445 --> 00:47:31,281
An airborne general
awaiting orders
909
00:47:31,281 --> 00:47:34,685
from the senior surviving
member of the government.
910
00:47:34,685 --> 00:47:40,591
Orders to wreak similar
havoc on the enemy.
911
00:47:40,591 --> 00:47:43,060
It is very images of
horror such as these
912
00:47:43,060 --> 00:47:45,929
that the superpowers seek
to deter each other,
913
00:47:45,929 --> 00:47:49,333
but the very fact of the
existence of headquarters
914
00:47:49,333 --> 00:47:54,271
in the sky like these
acknowledges the frailty
915
00:47:54,271 --> 00:47:58,909
of other elements in
command and control.
916
00:47:58,909 --> 00:48:03,981
And the frailest of all these
elements are human beings.
917
00:48:04,948 --> 00:48:09,685
(indistinct conversation)
918
00:48:10,354 --> 00:48:12,556
- [Ustinov] Looking Glass
itself might lack authority
919
00:48:12,556 --> 00:48:14,958
if no word came
from the president,
920
00:48:14,958 --> 00:48:18,095
so he too has an
emergency command post,
921
00:48:18,095 --> 00:48:22,466
a jumbo jet with the
improbable name of "Kneecap."
922
00:48:23,133 --> 00:48:25,602
It can whisk the president
and his military chiefs
923
00:48:25,602 --> 00:48:30,574
out of harm's way IF they make
it to the airfield in time.
924
00:48:31,108 --> 00:48:32,809
- The command system,
925
00:48:33,110 --> 00:48:36,580
because it depends upon
fragile communication assets
926
00:48:36,580 --> 00:48:39,316
and a very few people,
is extremely vulnerable
927
00:48:39,316 --> 00:48:40,783
itself to attack.
928
00:48:41,585 --> 00:48:44,388
So, a first strike
on a command system
929
00:48:44,388 --> 00:48:48,292
gives the probability
of seriously degrading
930
00:48:48,292 --> 00:48:53,196
the military capability of
the force that is attacked.
931
00:48:53,997 --> 00:48:57,667
Modern command systems
understand that fact.
932
00:48:58,435 --> 00:49:03,106
Given all this, in
the midst of a crisis
933
00:49:03,106 --> 00:49:07,544
in which military commanders
believe that a war
934
00:49:07,544 --> 00:49:11,147
can no longer be avoided
because the preparations
935
00:49:11,148 --> 00:49:14,851
have gone too far, there
would be extreme pressures
936
00:49:14,851 --> 00:49:19,523
to go the full
way and to get in,
937
00:49:19,523 --> 00:49:20,657
if not the first attack,
938
00:49:20,657 --> 00:49:24,361
certainly to establish
basic military plans
939
00:49:24,361 --> 00:49:28,865
and bring their forces right
up to the actual brink of war.
940
00:49:28,865 --> 00:49:32,935
(bootsteps marching
in snow)
941
00:49:32,936 --> 00:49:36,340
- [Ustinov] The same knotty
issues of command and control
942
00:49:36,340 --> 00:49:39,810
beset the Soviet Union's
strategic rocket force.
943
00:49:42,112 --> 00:49:43,847
(footsteps down stairs)
944
00:49:43,847 --> 00:49:46,316
Anyone who might find
himself at the receiving end
945
00:49:46,316 --> 00:49:49,051
of a Russian missile
would naturally hope
946
00:49:49,052 --> 00:49:51,722
their precautions against
any unauthorized launch
947
00:49:51,722 --> 00:49:54,458
are at least as strict
as the Americans.
948
00:49:55,425 --> 00:49:57,294
But Soviet missile officers,
949
00:49:57,294 --> 00:49:59,129
like their American
counterparts,
950
00:49:59,129 --> 00:50:01,365
know that in a nuclear
war their systems
951
00:50:01,365 --> 00:50:03,966
of command and control
would be targets
952
00:50:03,967 --> 00:50:05,836
of the highest priority.
953
00:50:05,836 --> 00:50:11,274
(machines humming)
954
00:50:11,274 --> 00:50:14,344
They're quite aware that
communications can fail,
955
00:50:14,344 --> 00:50:17,180
headquarters can be
atomized, political leaders
956
00:50:17,180 --> 00:50:19,348
and generals can perish.
957
00:50:20,150 --> 00:50:21,151
(switch popping)
958
00:50:21,151 --> 00:50:26,656
(platform rumbling)
959
00:50:26,656 --> 00:50:30,727
Soviet anxieties mirror
those of the United States.
960
00:50:30,727 --> 00:50:32,962
The need to avoid
being caught unawares
961
00:50:32,963 --> 00:50:35,732
in a surprise attack,
to be sure of getting
962
00:50:35,732 --> 00:50:40,370
the big missiles away before
the chain of command snaps.
963
00:50:40,370 --> 00:50:42,105
But how do they
arrange these matters
964
00:50:42,105 --> 00:50:44,808
on the other side of
the balance of terror?
965
00:50:45,308 --> 00:50:48,545
- I don't know if there is a
difference in vulnerability
966
00:50:48,545 --> 00:50:51,314
between the United States
and the Soviet Union,
967
00:50:51,314 --> 00:50:52,915
but there certainly
is a difference
968
00:50:52,916 --> 00:50:55,252
in their style of operation
969
00:50:55,252 --> 00:50:57,520
with respect to
command and control.
970
00:50:58,855 --> 00:51:00,991
The difference has to
do with the basic nature
971
00:51:00,991 --> 00:51:02,592
of these two societies.
972
00:51:02,592 --> 00:51:05,829
The United States is a
highly decentralized society
973
00:51:05,829 --> 00:51:07,964
and so are its military forces.
974
00:51:07,964 --> 00:51:10,400
A great deal of dependence
upon the initiative
975
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:15,172
of low level commanders
under actual operations
976
00:51:15,172 --> 00:51:16,706
of military forces.
977
00:51:16,706 --> 00:51:19,176
Soviet Union is a highly
centralized society
978
00:51:19,176 --> 00:51:21,378
and so are its military forces.
979
00:51:21,978 --> 00:51:23,747
They have gone to
extraordinary effort
980
00:51:23,747 --> 00:51:27,250
as far as we can tell to
maintain that central authority,
981
00:51:27,250 --> 00:51:31,121
even to the point of trading
off against the vulnerability
982
00:51:31,121 --> 00:51:32,722
of their actual force elements.
983
00:51:32,722 --> 00:51:34,758
(water churning &
seagulls squawking)
984
00:51:34,758 --> 00:51:36,393
- [Ustinov] The
trickiest of all forces
985
00:51:36,393 --> 00:51:39,129
to control are the
submarines, whose missiles
986
00:51:39,129 --> 00:51:41,998
are the superpower's
last resort.
987
00:51:41,998 --> 00:51:45,769
But in time of war, will the
commands ever reach them?
988
00:51:45,769 --> 00:51:47,604
The American sailors casting off
989
00:51:47,604 --> 00:51:50,107
from Holy Loch in
Scotland won't see
990
00:51:50,107 --> 00:51:52,309
daylight again for two months.
991
00:51:53,477 --> 00:51:56,011
And communicating with
submarines under water
992
00:51:56,012 --> 00:51:58,515
is difficult enough
in peacetime.
993
00:51:59,583 --> 00:52:02,486
- [John] I really do not know
what kind of orders
994
00:52:02,486 --> 00:52:05,821
the United States missile
submarines operate under.
995
00:52:05,822 --> 00:52:08,758
However, we can realize
that the vulnerability
996
00:52:08,758 --> 00:52:11,794
of their communication
links require that
997
00:52:11,795 --> 00:52:13,730
a great deal of
authority be vested
998
00:52:13,730 --> 00:52:16,233
in the submarine
commander and the officers
999
00:52:16,233 --> 00:52:18,135
and men serving underneath him.
1000
00:52:19,002 --> 00:52:23,373
In circumstances in
which it became apparent
1001
00:52:23,373 --> 00:52:27,310
that the United States had
been attacked massively
1002
00:52:27,310 --> 00:52:30,580
and their communication
links had been broken
1003
00:52:30,580 --> 00:52:33,850
and could not be reestablished,
the submarine commander
1004
00:52:33,850 --> 00:52:37,254
would have to decide whether
to execute the missions
1005
00:52:37,254 --> 00:52:39,055
for which he had been prepared
1006
00:52:39,055 --> 00:52:42,692
despite the lack of
formal authority to do so,
1007
00:52:42,692 --> 00:52:45,061
or whether he
should fail to do so
1008
00:52:45,061 --> 00:52:48,498
and possibly degrade the
retaliatory capability
1009
00:52:48,498 --> 00:52:49,733
of the United States.
1010
00:52:49,733 --> 00:52:52,169
I don't think it's
predictable in advance
1011
00:52:52,169 --> 00:52:56,038
how a submarine commander
would resolve this problem,
1012
00:52:56,039 --> 00:52:59,643
but everybody recognizes
that there are circumstances
1013
00:52:59,643 --> 00:53:01,511
in which he would
virtually have to do so
1014
00:53:01,511 --> 00:53:03,846
and some of them
undoubtedly would.
1015
00:53:03,847 --> 00:53:06,816
(water churning)
1016
00:53:06,816 --> 00:53:11,154
I think the same logic does
apply to the Soviet submarines,
1017
00:53:11,154 --> 00:53:16,059
but I personally believe
that they do not operate
1018
00:53:16,092 --> 00:53:18,361
under quite the
extension of authority
1019
00:53:18,361 --> 00:53:21,964
that is characteristic of
the United States force.
1020
00:53:21,965 --> 00:53:24,234
Indeed I believe
that's why there are
1021
00:53:24,234 --> 00:53:30,507
observable operational
restrictions on
Soviet submarines.
1022
00:53:30,507 --> 00:53:34,311
At any given time they have
many fewer of them at sea
1023
00:53:34,311 --> 00:53:37,347
and they do not
operate quite as far
1024
00:53:37,347 --> 00:53:40,050
from the Soviet Union as
the United States submarines
1025
00:53:40,050 --> 00:53:41,651
do from the United States.
1026
00:53:42,319 --> 00:53:43,687
I simply believe they've solved
1027
00:53:43,687 --> 00:53:44,921
the problem in a different way.
1028
00:53:44,921 --> 00:53:47,390
They are willing to accept
some greater vulnerability
1029
00:53:47,390 --> 00:53:50,961
of their submarines
in order to achieve
1030
00:53:50,961 --> 00:53:52,796
tighter operational control.
1031
00:53:56,533 --> 00:53:58,902
- I know very little
about submarines,
1032
00:53:58,902 --> 00:54:00,437
but I imagine that their crews
1033
00:54:00,437 --> 00:54:06,176
are as cramped and as isolated
as we are here...cut off.
1034
00:54:06,176 --> 00:54:08,478
I'm thinking in
particular of the captain
1035
00:54:08,478 --> 00:54:12,983
of a Soviet submarine selected
for a long range mission
1036
00:54:12,983 --> 00:54:16,386
in the Pacific because
of his proven loyalty
1037
00:54:16,386 --> 00:54:19,489
to the party, and also because
of his quality as a seaman.
1038
00:54:20,624 --> 00:54:25,361
Now, he had lost touch
with his base for days.
1039
00:54:25,829 --> 00:54:27,831
His second in command told him
1040
00:54:27,831 --> 00:54:30,734
nothing from the
shore transmitter,
1041
00:54:31,368 --> 00:54:34,070
nothing from the
emergency aircraft.
1042
00:54:34,871 --> 00:54:37,040
The captain addressed the crew:
1043
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,776
"Comrades...perhaps
our Mother Russia
1044
00:54:39,776 --> 00:54:41,344
has been burnt to
a cinder already
1045
00:54:41,344 --> 00:54:43,913
and we're the only
ones left to avenge her.
1046
00:54:45,081 --> 00:54:47,117
But my orders are specific.
1047
00:54:47,817 --> 00:54:50,453
I must have proof that
nuclear war has broken out
1048
00:54:50,453 --> 00:54:52,221
before I take any initiative.
1049
00:54:52,222 --> 00:54:55,759
We should surface,
sample the atmosphere,
1050
00:54:55,759 --> 00:54:58,295
listen for news broadcasts."
1051
00:54:58,295 --> 00:54:59,062
But...
1052
00:54:59,396 --> 00:55:01,264
there were three
unidentified ships
1053
00:55:01,264 --> 00:55:03,133
bearing down on him already.
1054
00:55:03,133 --> 00:55:04,768
"Three destroyers,
Comrade Captain,
1055
00:55:04,768 --> 00:55:06,870
and a possible submarine."
1056
00:55:08,405 --> 00:55:11,474
"If they sink us we shall
have the proof we need,"
1057
00:55:11,474 --> 00:55:12,909
grunted the captain.
1058
00:55:13,510 --> 00:55:16,379
"And if I launch my
missiles the chances are
1059
00:55:16,379 --> 00:55:18,548
"they'll sink us anyway."
1060
00:55:18,548 --> 00:55:20,216
"But why should they
provoke us like this
1061
00:55:20,216 --> 00:55:22,719
if they have not attacked
the Soviet Union?"
1062
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,789
"Oh...we provoke each
other all the time
1063
00:55:25,789 --> 00:55:27,957
in this war of nerves;
that's nothing."
1064
00:55:27,957 --> 00:55:30,493
"But Comrade Captain,
(speaking in foreign language)?
1065
00:55:30,493 --> 00:55:32,395
The emergency aircraft?"
1066
00:55:34,397 --> 00:55:36,700
The captain took his decision.
1067
00:55:37,133 --> 00:55:39,836
"I will launch two missiles.
1068
00:55:39,836 --> 00:55:41,971
In this way if it's
a terrible mistake
1069
00:55:41,971 --> 00:55:43,473
the party chairman
can always say
1070
00:55:43,473 --> 00:55:46,910
to the American president:
"That stupid captain,
1071
00:55:46,910 --> 00:55:48,545
we've punished him.
1072
00:55:48,945 --> 00:55:52,649
We apologize about
Denver and San Diego."
1073
00:55:52,649 --> 00:55:54,851
"If it isn't a mistake we
shall have done our duty
1074
00:55:54,851 --> 00:55:57,220
in part at least."
1075
00:55:57,220 --> 00:55:58,120
"But...
1076
00:55:58,121 --> 00:56:00,590
we would never
start a war ourselves!"
1077
00:56:00,590 --> 00:56:01,925
cried the second in command.
1078
00:56:01,925 --> 00:56:03,493
"Remember what
the admiral said!"
1079
00:56:03,860 --> 00:56:05,929
The crew cheered quietly.
1080
00:56:07,297 --> 00:56:10,333
"There are certain circles
in Washington eager
1081
00:56:10,333 --> 00:56:11,768
to destroy us.
1082
00:56:11,768 --> 00:56:14,904
Are two missiles sufficient?"
1083
00:56:14,904 --> 00:56:18,575
"Two missiles..."
said the captain.
1084
00:56:19,209 --> 00:56:20,210
"Proceed."
1085
00:56:21,044 --> 00:56:25,348
And so he remained poised
on a balance of error,
1086
00:56:25,348 --> 00:56:29,419
not knowing whether he
had started a nuclear war
1087
00:56:29,419 --> 00:56:33,356
or merely stoked fires
that were raging already.
1088
00:56:36,626 --> 00:56:42,599
(alarm blaring)
(men chattering)
1089
00:56:42,599 --> 00:56:49,239
(alarm blaring)
(engines racing)
1090
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,808
When bomber crews scramble
it certainly sounds like
1091
00:56:51,808 --> 00:56:53,676
the end of the world.
1092
00:56:53,676 --> 00:56:56,813
(alarms blaring)
1093
00:56:56,813 --> 00:56:59,516
Memories of the Japanese
surprise attack on Pearl Harbor
1094
00:56:59,516 --> 00:57:03,920
nearly 40 years ago still
haunt American strategies,
1095
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:06,189
so they always keep a
hundred aircraft on alert,
1096
00:57:06,189 --> 00:57:08,792
laden with nuclear weapons.
1097
00:57:08,792 --> 00:57:11,060
Otherwise a sudden
strike by missiles
1098
00:57:11,060 --> 00:57:14,998
might annihilate the entire
bomber force on the ground.
1099
00:57:16,032 --> 00:57:20,170
So, if the warning comes, the
crews scurry into the air.
1100
00:57:21,905 --> 00:57:24,474
An attack of that sort
would be yet another way
1101
00:57:24,474 --> 00:57:26,676
for a nuclear war to start.
1102
00:57:27,110 --> 00:57:30,480
One superpower or the
other coming to believe
1103
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:33,683
it can or must strike first,
1104
00:57:33,683 --> 00:57:36,386
the aim being to cripple
the other's nuclear forces
1105
00:57:36,386 --> 00:57:40,223
embodied in bombers,
missiles and submarines.
1106
00:57:40,223 --> 00:57:41,758
Any of them sooner or later
1107
00:57:41,758 --> 00:57:43,993
could well be
vulnerable to attack.
1108
00:57:43,993 --> 00:57:58,708
(aircraft roaring)
1109
00:57:58,708 --> 00:58:01,344
(aircraft screeching)
1110
00:58:01,344 --> 00:58:05,582
Even if the somewhat elderly
B-52s get airborne in time,
1111
00:58:05,582 --> 00:58:07,016
won't they just be shot down
1112
00:58:07,016 --> 00:58:09,185
before they reach their targets?
1113
00:58:09,853 --> 00:58:13,089
- Not all manned bombers
are necessarily vulnerable.
1114
00:58:13,556 --> 00:58:15,425
They have become
increasingly vulnerable
1115
00:58:15,425 --> 00:58:17,260
as time goes on
because, for example,
1116
00:58:17,260 --> 00:58:22,031
the Soviet Union has developed
an anti-aircraft system
1117
00:58:22,499 --> 00:58:26,803
that essentially layers
the air above the ground
1118
00:58:26,803 --> 00:58:29,839
and addresses each layer
with a different weapon.
1119
00:58:29,839 --> 00:58:33,042
Therefore, they sort of have
covered the entire range
1120
00:58:33,042 --> 00:58:35,645
in which a bomber could fly
with a different kind of weapon
1121
00:58:35,645 --> 00:58:39,148
and that seems to be
reasonably lethal.
1122
00:58:39,148 --> 00:58:43,319
On the other hand, a
bomber has ways to confuse
1123
00:58:43,319 --> 00:58:45,955
the radars, for example,
of the anti-aircraft system
1124
00:58:45,955 --> 00:58:52,595
and thereby be able to
penetrate with less danger
1125
00:58:52,595 --> 00:58:55,665
and threat than one
would normally expect.
1126
00:58:56,299 --> 00:58:59,802
The best way, of course,
to do that is avoid
1127
00:58:59,802 --> 00:59:02,639
the defenses and that's where
the cruise missile comes in.
1128
00:59:02,639 --> 00:59:12,248
(vehicles humming)
1129
00:59:12,248 --> 00:59:15,151
The cruise missile can be
launched from the bomber
1130
00:59:15,151 --> 00:59:16,919
and travel very near the ground
1131
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:20,156
where it would probably
hide in the clutter,
1132
00:59:20,156 --> 00:59:23,526
in the noise that the
ground generates on a radar.
1133
00:59:24,661 --> 00:59:26,930
Therefore, be able to
penetrate much more easily
1134
00:59:26,930 --> 00:59:29,299
than a large bomber like a B-52.
1135
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:32,101
Then the bomber does
not have to approach
1136
00:59:32,101 --> 00:59:34,304
the dangerous areas
that are defended
1137
00:59:34,304 --> 00:59:37,340
and therefore its
survivability is increased.
1138
00:59:37,340 --> 00:59:40,944
(missile rumbling)
1139
00:59:40,944 --> 00:59:45,248
The equation of survivability
versus penetrability
1140
00:59:45,248 --> 00:59:46,783
goes back and forth.
1141
00:59:46,783 --> 00:59:50,219
You devise a new
weapon and for awhile
1142
00:59:50,219 --> 00:59:52,689
you have the ability to
penetrate and hit a target.
1143
00:59:52,689 --> 00:59:56,658
The other fellow
who is interested in
defending the target
1144
00:59:56,659 --> 00:59:59,128
eventually defines a
counter measure to that.
1145
00:59:59,128 --> 01:00:01,331
Then of course you come
around and you define
1146
01:00:01,331 --> 01:00:04,467
a new weapon that takes
care of that countermeasure.
1147
01:00:04,467 --> 01:00:07,236
And it's this
measure-countermeasure situation
1148
01:00:07,236 --> 01:00:11,641
that you are really encountering
in military operations,
1149
01:00:11,641 --> 01:00:14,811
in bombing or in
anything like that.
1150
01:00:14,811 --> 01:00:18,114
So, it is perhaps
misleading to say that
1151
01:00:18,114 --> 01:00:21,217
the bomber is
inexorably vulnerable
1152
01:00:21,217 --> 01:00:26,656
and will be eliminated
from the face of the Earth.
1153
01:00:28,491 --> 01:00:30,693
- [Ustinov] The superpowers
wouldn't trust their destinies
1154
01:00:30,693 --> 01:00:33,496
to just one method of
hitting each other.
1155
01:00:33,496 --> 01:00:35,999
That's why scattered
across the countryside
1156
01:00:35,999 --> 01:00:37,734
the intercontinental
missiles stand
1157
01:00:37,734 --> 01:00:39,802
in their buried launchers.
1158
01:00:40,336 --> 01:00:42,671
The Americans have a thousand.
1159
01:00:43,272 --> 01:00:46,609
But would they survive
in a nuclear battle?
1160
01:00:47,010 --> 01:00:50,213
Would the airborne commander
in his Looking Glass aircraft
1161
01:00:50,213 --> 01:00:52,582
have anything left to launch?
1162
01:00:53,516 --> 01:00:56,386
Once through the
looking glass we find
1163
01:00:56,386 --> 01:01:01,424
the garden of intercontinental
ballistic missiles.
1164
01:01:01,424 --> 01:01:04,127
And if the order should come
from Strategic Air Command
1165
01:01:04,127 --> 01:01:07,397
or from the Looking
Glass aircraft,
1166
01:01:07,397 --> 01:01:10,333
then the massive lid
on which I'm standing
1167
01:01:10,333 --> 01:01:13,569
would be thrown aside
and the Minuteman missile
1168
01:01:13,569 --> 01:01:15,805
would come roaring out.
1169
01:01:16,506 --> 01:01:18,774
This is a silo in the military
1170
01:01:18,775 --> 01:01:21,711
rather than in the
agricultural sense
1171
01:01:21,711 --> 01:01:24,180
and there are over
a hundred of them
1172
01:01:24,180 --> 01:01:28,116
in the farmland in this
part of North Dakota.
1173
01:01:28,117 --> 01:01:30,553
(mechanism rumbling)
1174
01:01:30,553 --> 01:01:32,488
But each Minuteman
has three separate
1175
01:01:32,488 --> 01:01:35,058
nuclear warheads
concealed in its nose,
1176
01:01:35,058 --> 01:01:37,794
each aimed at a
different target.
1177
01:01:37,794 --> 01:01:40,296
And now that the big
Russian missiles, too,
1178
01:01:40,296 --> 01:01:43,066
have several re-entry
vehicles apiece,
1179
01:01:43,066 --> 01:01:45,401
swarms of powerful
and accurate warheads
1180
01:01:45,401 --> 01:01:48,104
might in theory rain
down on the silos
1181
01:01:48,104 --> 01:01:50,239
and destroy most of
the Minuteman force.
1182
01:01:50,239 --> 01:01:58,381
(rocket roars)
1183
01:01:58,381 --> 01:02:00,348
If the duel of missile
against missile
1184
01:02:00,349 --> 01:02:03,186
becomes plausible, the
side that shoots first
1185
01:02:03,186 --> 01:02:05,088
might gravely weaken the other,
1186
01:02:05,088 --> 01:02:07,590
unless of course the
victim hurriedly launches
1187
01:02:07,590 --> 01:02:10,426
his own missiles
before they're hit.
1188
01:02:11,194 --> 01:02:15,498
- [Kosta] Missiles are being
tested now from test sites
1189
01:02:15,498 --> 01:02:18,534
into the Pacific Ocean
or the Atlantic Ocean
1190
01:02:18,534 --> 01:02:21,070
and the same thing is the
case in the Soviet Union.
1191
01:02:22,038 --> 01:02:24,307
Neither country, I believe,
have tested missiles
1192
01:02:24,307 --> 01:02:27,843
from operational silos
with operational crews
1193
01:02:27,844 --> 01:02:33,349
over the trajectory they're
going to follow in time of war.
1194
01:02:33,349 --> 01:02:36,219
Therefore we don't really
know what's going to happen
1195
01:02:36,219 --> 01:02:37,153
if you try to launch
1196
01:02:37,153 --> 01:02:39,154
a thousand missiles
over half an hour
1197
01:02:39,155 --> 01:02:41,390
and send them all cross-targeted
1198
01:02:41,390 --> 01:02:43,192
against a thousand silos.
1199
01:02:43,693 --> 01:02:47,130
This kind of extremely
complex process
1200
01:02:47,163 --> 01:02:49,899
that obviously
like all technical
1201
01:02:49,899 --> 01:02:55,203
and technological processes
will have bugs in it,
1202
01:02:55,204 --> 01:02:58,775
has never been tested, has
never been rehearsed even.
1203
01:02:58,775 --> 01:03:00,543
Therefore, it seems to me to say
1204
01:03:00,543 --> 01:03:02,979
with any degree of
certainty that indeed
1205
01:03:02,979 --> 01:03:05,047
the missile is going to
perform as we expected,
1206
01:03:05,047 --> 01:03:07,016
is simply not true.
1207
01:03:07,383 --> 01:03:10,486
- I certainly believe the
Soviet Union has taken advantage
1208
01:03:10,486 --> 01:03:12,754
of Minuteman
vulnerability in the past
1209
01:03:12,755 --> 01:03:13,556
through the development
1210
01:03:13,556 --> 01:03:17,226
of their large,
heavy, SS-18 missiles.
1211
01:03:17,226 --> 01:03:19,362
I certainly think they
will take advantage
1212
01:03:19,362 --> 01:03:20,396
of it in the future.
1213
01:03:20,396 --> 01:03:20,429
of it in the future.
As a matter of fact, I think
it's their number one goal
1214
01:03:20,429 --> 01:03:23,432
As a matter of fact, I think
it's their number one goal
1215
01:03:23,432 --> 01:03:26,234
to be able to launch
first strikes,
1216
01:03:26,235 --> 01:03:30,306
wiping out 90% of our
Minuteman III-IVs.
1217
01:03:30,306 --> 01:03:32,708
I don't think they'll
do it dramatically
1218
01:03:32,708 --> 01:03:35,545
or cause any great
public concern,
1219
01:03:35,545 --> 01:03:39,015
but over a period of time
through the mid-1980s
1220
01:03:39,015 --> 01:03:43,185
they will take advantage of our
Minuteman III vulnerability.
1221
01:03:43,753 --> 01:03:46,956
- The Soviet Union may
within two or three years
1222
01:03:46,956 --> 01:03:49,692
have enough accurate
re-entry vehicles
1223
01:03:49,692 --> 01:03:54,263
technically to destroy 90%
of the Minuteman silos.
1224
01:03:54,263 --> 01:03:56,598
That doesn't mean that they
can destroy the missiles.
1225
01:03:56,599 --> 01:03:59,635
They could launched before
they were destroyed.
1226
01:03:59,635 --> 01:04:01,904
It doesn't mean that
the Soviet Union
1227
01:04:01,904 --> 01:04:05,141
would do what they are
technically capable of doing.
1228
01:04:05,141 --> 01:04:07,777
They would use more missiles,
more re-entry vehicles
1229
01:04:07,777 --> 01:04:09,412
than they would destroy.
1230
01:04:10,012 --> 01:04:13,683
They would still have to
face the submarine launched
1231
01:04:13,683 --> 01:04:17,253
ballistic missiles and the
air-launched cruise missiles.
1232
01:04:17,253 --> 01:04:20,156
It makes no sense for the
Soviet Union to destroy
1233
01:04:20,156 --> 01:04:23,960
only a small component of
the U.S. strategic force.
1234
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:25,228
- One of the first
things the president
1235
01:04:25,228 --> 01:04:27,129
has to decide when he's elected
1236
01:04:27,129 --> 01:04:28,931
and takes that oath of office,
1237
01:04:28,931 --> 01:04:34,604
what will he do if he is
told with no question,
1238
01:04:34,604 --> 01:04:37,607
no lack of confirmation
that there is
1239
01:04:37,607 --> 01:04:42,612
a 500,000 missile attack
on our Minuteman field?
1240
01:04:42,612 --> 01:04:45,648
He shouldn't have to say,
"Gee, I never thought of that.
1241
01:04:45,648 --> 01:04:48,084
Let's form a committee."
And as soon as he takes office,
1242
01:04:48,084 --> 01:04:50,685
he'd better make up his
mind what he's going to do.
1243
01:04:50,686 --> 01:04:53,289
If he's done that,
either he's going to launch
1244
01:04:53,289 --> 01:04:55,091
or he's not going to launch.
1245
01:04:55,091 --> 01:04:57,093
If he's not going to
launch then clearly
1246
01:04:57,093 --> 01:04:58,694
the missiles are at risk.
1247
01:04:58,694 --> 01:05:00,529
If he decides that
he will launch
1248
01:05:00,529 --> 01:05:03,099
before the adversaries'
missiles arrive,
1249
01:05:03,099 --> 01:05:05,034
then they're no longer at risk
1250
01:05:05,034 --> 01:05:07,570
and I would think that if
he's made such a decision
1251
01:05:07,570 --> 01:05:09,872
and it's understood,
that is part
1252
01:05:09,872 --> 01:05:11,707
of the overall deterrence.
1253
01:05:12,174 --> 01:05:13,809
- If the worst
came to the worst,
1254
01:05:13,809 --> 01:05:15,778
what would actually happen?
1255
01:05:16,212 --> 01:05:19,115
Well, this question exercises
well-informed experts
1256
01:05:19,115 --> 01:05:22,919
and well-informed computers
both here in Washington
1257
01:05:22,919 --> 01:05:27,455
and elsewhere, and they
fight imaginary wars
1258
01:05:27,456 --> 01:05:30,393
and try to assess how many
people would be killed
1259
01:05:30,393 --> 01:05:34,830
and what damage would
be done on both sides.
1260
01:05:34,830 --> 01:05:38,467
And these activities
are called "war games."
1261
01:05:38,467 --> 01:05:40,403
Any number can play.
1262
01:05:40,403 --> 01:05:44,339
(buttons clicking)
1263
01:05:44,340 --> 01:05:46,208
The outcome is always disastrous
1264
01:05:46,208 --> 01:05:49,578
with tens or hundreds
of millions of dead.
1265
01:05:49,578 --> 01:05:51,913
Yet nowadays the war
games of the superpowers
1266
01:05:51,914 --> 01:05:55,051
often commence with one
team making a hopeful strike
1267
01:05:55,051 --> 01:05:57,420
at the other's nuclear forces.
1268
01:05:58,421 --> 01:06:01,223
The simple idea of
avoiding a nuclear war
1269
01:06:01,223 --> 01:06:04,327
by deterrence is being
eroded by notions
1270
01:06:04,327 --> 01:06:06,195
on fighting and winning quickly
1271
01:06:06,195 --> 01:06:09,165
without suffering
unduly in the process;
1272
01:06:09,165 --> 01:06:13,134
a question of a judicial
selection of targets.
1273
01:06:13,135 --> 01:06:14,737
- If our enemy is
really the Soviet state
1274
01:06:14,737 --> 01:06:17,306
and its leaders, murdering...
1275
01:06:17,306 --> 01:06:18,975
murdering Soviet
children is not,
1276
01:06:18,975 --> 01:06:20,609
to my mind, where our
strategy ought to be.
1277
01:06:20,609 --> 01:06:23,179
Also, I think it's militarily
and politically foolish,
1278
01:06:23,179 --> 01:06:24,747
but it's not the kind
of promise of damage
1279
01:06:24,747 --> 01:06:26,915
that the Soviets should
find most deterring.
1280
01:06:26,916 --> 01:06:28,551
The kind of damage they
would find most deterring
1281
01:06:28,551 --> 01:06:30,086
is loss of their military power,
1282
01:06:30,086 --> 01:06:32,988
loss of their ability to control
their country politically.
1283
01:06:32,989 --> 01:06:35,024
But we can not even
begin to think hard
1284
01:06:35,024 --> 01:06:37,026
about what kind of target
sets we should strike for that
1285
01:06:37,026 --> 01:06:39,127
unless we at the
same time recognize
1286
01:06:39,128 --> 01:06:40,496
that we have to be able
to limit the damage
1287
01:06:40,496 --> 01:06:43,366
they can do to us, because
no matter how intelligent
1288
01:06:43,366 --> 01:06:45,601
a set of targeting
suggestions I can give you
1289
01:06:45,601 --> 01:06:47,870
for our forces, if
the Soviets can kill
1290
01:06:47,870 --> 01:06:50,806
a hundred or 120 million
Americans within a few days
1291
01:06:50,806 --> 01:06:53,142
of the beginning
of World War Three,
1292
01:06:53,142 --> 01:06:55,511
any reasonable American
president who isn't drunk,
1293
01:06:55,511 --> 01:06:59,081
drugged, or just insane,
would not be able to exercise
1294
01:06:59,081 --> 01:07:00,316
offensive strategic options
1295
01:07:00,316 --> 01:07:01,417
because of what
they could do to us
1296
01:07:01,417 --> 01:07:02,418
we would be self-deterred.
1297
01:07:02,418 --> 01:07:03,753
We have to have a
strategy from which
1298
01:07:03,753 --> 01:07:05,054
we are not self-deterred.
1299
01:07:05,054 --> 01:07:07,523
- The Soviet argument
about deterrence is this:
1300
01:07:07,523 --> 01:07:11,127
very simply, that
if deterrence fails
1301
01:07:11,127 --> 01:07:12,628
then you go over to
limiting the damage
1302
01:07:12,628 --> 01:07:14,263
upon your own country.
1303
01:07:14,263 --> 01:07:16,932
And indeed in military
preparation terms
1304
01:07:16,932 --> 01:07:19,035
you take all measures
to minimize that,
1305
01:07:19,035 --> 01:07:21,770
even if it should
include striking first
1306
01:07:21,771 --> 01:07:23,039
at a potential enemy.
1307
01:07:23,039 --> 01:07:24,907
(water splashing loudly)
1308
01:07:24,907 --> 01:07:29,145
- [Ustinov] But are Russia's own
forces any safer from attack?
1309
01:07:29,145 --> 01:07:31,480
The missile submarines
after the bombers
1310
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:34,583
and land based missiles
are the third main branch
1311
01:07:34,583 --> 01:07:37,186
of the superpower's
nuclear forces.
1312
01:07:37,186 --> 01:07:38,954
They're intended
always to survive
1313
01:07:38,954 --> 01:07:42,425
for the final revenge,
but every Soviet submarine
1314
01:07:42,425 --> 01:07:45,594
leaving its base at
Murmansk, attracts attention
1315
01:07:45,594 --> 01:07:47,630
from the submarine
hunters of the West.
1316
01:07:47,630 --> 01:07:49,298
(aircraft rumbling)
1317
01:07:49,298 --> 01:07:51,000
If it's bound for the Atlantic,
1318
01:07:51,000 --> 01:07:54,236
it passes under the eyes of
the Norwegian air force.
1319
01:07:54,236 --> 01:07:57,705
(aircraft humming)
1320
01:07:57,706 --> 01:08:00,943
And they're just the first
of its uninvited escorts,
1321
01:08:00,943 --> 01:08:03,579
these watchful men of Norway.
1322
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:06,715
In keeping track of
Soviet submarines,
1323
01:08:06,715 --> 01:08:09,018
the allies in NATO
use all the skills
1324
01:08:09,018 --> 01:08:11,387
and resources they can command.
1325
01:08:11,987 --> 01:08:13,689
Could their superior technology
1326
01:08:13,689 --> 01:08:16,524
put the missile submarine
fatally at risk?
1327
01:08:16,524 --> 01:08:21,729
(speaking in Norwegian)
1328
01:08:23,064 --> 01:08:26,469
The submarine is not well
hidden even if it dives.
1329
01:08:27,103 --> 01:08:29,438
When the Norwegians alert
their British colleagues,
1330
01:08:29,438 --> 01:08:32,875
a Nimrod aircraft will
pick up the trail.
1331
01:08:32,875 --> 01:08:36,078
In the Bible, Nimrod
was the mighty hunter.
1332
01:08:36,078 --> 01:08:37,813
(aircraft rumbling)
1333
01:08:37,813 --> 01:08:40,549
It's mainly concerned that
the large Soviet fleet
1334
01:08:40,549 --> 01:08:43,252
of ordinary submarines
might one day run riot
1335
01:08:43,252 --> 01:08:45,087
through the shipping
in the Atlantic,
1336
01:08:45,087 --> 01:08:47,356
which prompts this diligence.
1337
01:08:48,323 --> 01:08:50,358
(cannister clattering)
1338
01:08:51,260 --> 01:08:54,797
The submarine can't avoid
making a noise as it travels.
1339
01:08:54,796 --> 01:08:57,633
If they're searching for it
in the right patch of sea,
1340
01:08:57,633 --> 01:09:00,169
it'll give away its
position when the RAF men
1341
01:09:00,169 --> 01:09:03,238
sow their sound
detectors in the water.
1342
01:09:04,372 --> 01:09:06,075
(big splash)
1343
01:09:06,675 --> 01:09:10,513
As the readings come in by
radio, they have contact.
1344
01:09:10,513 --> 01:09:12,581
So the Russian
submarine finds itself
1345
01:09:12,581 --> 01:09:15,918
in a chase that's
disconcertingly realistic.
1346
01:09:17,219 --> 01:09:19,788
(buttons clicking)
1347
01:09:19,787 --> 01:09:21,189
- Buoys are in the water then
1348
01:09:21,189 --> 01:09:23,091
and submarines are
somewhere to the north
1349
01:09:23,091 --> 01:09:25,059
of the line of buoys.
1350
01:09:25,060 --> 01:09:26,128
And we're expecting them to do--
1351
01:09:26,127 --> 01:09:29,098
- [Ustinov] The submarine will
try to shake off its pursuers,
1352
01:09:29,098 --> 01:09:32,468
but a string of secret and
ultrasensitive sound detectors
1353
01:09:32,468 --> 01:09:34,737
lies in ambush across its path,
1354
01:09:34,737 --> 01:09:36,805
all the way from
Britain to Greenland.
1355
01:09:36,805 --> 01:09:42,044
(aircraft roaring)
1356
01:09:42,044 --> 01:09:43,778
This pursuit
engages the interest
1357
01:09:43,779 --> 01:09:46,148
of the United States Navy,
1358
01:09:46,148 --> 01:09:48,884
with their clever
airborne instruments.
1359
01:09:48,884 --> 01:09:50,452
(aircraft humming)
1360
01:09:50,452 --> 01:09:52,354
They track it relentlessly.
1361
01:09:52,354 --> 01:09:55,791
This is what passes
for peace in our time.
1362
01:09:55,791 --> 01:09:59,962
(aircraft rumbling)
1363
01:09:59,962 --> 01:10:01,630
- Sir, here's the tape
you've been waiting for.
1364
01:10:01,630 --> 01:10:03,365
The three o'clock...
let's see what's on it.
1365
01:10:03,365 --> 01:10:04,934
- All right.
1366
01:10:04,934 --> 01:10:06,302
- [Ustinov] And when
the fliers return
1367
01:10:06,302 --> 01:10:10,039
to their carrier, a computer
devours their recording.
1368
01:10:10,039 --> 01:10:11,974
- Okay, Lieutenant Sandberg.
1369
01:10:13,242 --> 01:10:14,877
- [Ustinov] The machine
refreshes its knowledge
1370
01:10:14,877 --> 01:10:16,912
of the submarines at sea.
1371
01:10:17,446 --> 01:10:20,482
It can always recall
their last positions,
1372
01:10:20,482 --> 01:10:22,751
so the Russian
submariners can never feel
1373
01:10:22,751 --> 01:10:25,955
safely out of sight
of the western Navy.
1374
01:10:26,755 --> 01:10:29,858
At the start of a war many
could be promptly sunk
1375
01:10:29,858 --> 01:10:32,861
and they might include some
of the missile carrying boats,
1376
01:10:32,861 --> 01:10:34,430
which form an essential part
1377
01:10:34,430 --> 01:10:36,765
of the Soviet nuclear deterrent.
1378
01:10:38,033 --> 01:10:40,536
The executioner could
be another submarine;
1379
01:10:40,536 --> 01:10:44,106
an attack submarine
or hunter-killer.
1380
01:10:44,106 --> 01:10:47,309
The American Navy has
fearsome craft of this sort
1381
01:10:47,309 --> 01:10:50,279
and they can hound their
prey wherever it goes.
1382
01:10:50,279 --> 01:10:51,647
(water churning)
1383
01:10:51,647 --> 01:10:53,449
For the coup de grĂ¢ce
they can strike
1384
01:10:53,449 --> 01:10:57,152
with anti-submarine missiles
and homing torpedoes.
1385
01:10:57,152 --> 01:11:00,089
(apparatus humming)
1386
01:11:00,089 --> 01:11:02,858
American arms control
officials have argued
1387
01:11:02,858 --> 01:11:04,493
that these thorough
going systems
1388
01:11:04,493 --> 01:11:07,363
of anti-submarine
warfare could well sap
1389
01:11:07,363 --> 01:11:09,932
the Russians' confidence
in the submarine branch
1390
01:11:09,932 --> 01:11:11,700
of their deterrent.
1391
01:11:11,700 --> 01:11:14,503
So, just as the West
abhors the growing power
1392
01:11:14,503 --> 01:11:17,606
and accuracy of Soviet
intercontinental missiles,
1393
01:11:17,606 --> 01:11:19,541
Soviet leaders may be alarmed
1394
01:11:19,541 --> 01:11:22,378
by increasing Western ingenuity.
1395
01:11:23,312 --> 01:11:26,382
An ominous interplay
because sooner
1396
01:11:26,382 --> 01:11:30,018
than any hope of victory,
it is fear of defeat
1397
01:11:30,019 --> 01:11:33,122
that might impel that
fatal first blow.
1398
01:11:33,122 --> 01:11:34,857
(water splashing)
1399
01:11:34,857 --> 01:11:36,292
- I've no doubt at all
1400
01:11:36,292 --> 01:11:40,429
that the political
administration of
the United States
1401
01:11:40,429 --> 01:11:43,866
and the political administration
in the Soviet Union
1402
01:11:43,866 --> 01:11:47,036
have, in academic terms,
1403
01:11:47,036 --> 01:11:49,371
no wish at all to have
a nuclear world war.
1404
01:11:49,371 --> 01:11:51,206
I'm convinced of that.
1405
01:11:51,206 --> 01:11:55,577
But the technology will
make it almost inevitable
1406
01:11:55,577 --> 01:11:58,213
that the politicians
decide to do it
1407
01:11:58,213 --> 01:12:00,449
in order to stop the other side,
1408
01:12:00,449 --> 01:12:04,085
which they trust very
little, in doing it to them.
1409
01:12:04,086 --> 01:12:08,223
And it's this reason
which is so dangerous
1410
01:12:08,223 --> 01:12:10,125
for world security.
1411
01:12:11,293 --> 01:12:13,762
- Anybody who can count
up to five will tell you
1412
01:12:13,762 --> 01:12:17,532
that that building over
there is the Pentagon.
1413
01:12:17,533 --> 01:12:20,536
Well, tabloid newspapers
like nothing better
1414
01:12:20,536 --> 01:12:22,805
on fallow days than
to publish pictures
1415
01:12:22,805 --> 01:12:25,341
of cats and dogs
in perfect harmony
1416
01:12:25,341 --> 01:12:27,443
playing innocently together.
1417
01:12:27,443 --> 01:12:30,412
It seems to prove that
instinctive antagonisms
1418
01:12:30,412 --> 01:12:33,382
can be countered with
a little patience.
1419
01:12:33,382 --> 01:12:36,818
Superpowers also have
instinctive antagonisms
1420
01:12:36,819 --> 01:12:40,622
by virtue of their size,
their influence, their power,
1421
01:12:40,622 --> 01:12:42,624
and they adopt
aggressive postures
1422
01:12:42,624 --> 01:12:47,896
before any calmer
counsel can prevail.
1423
01:12:47,896 --> 01:12:51,066
Well, how can harmony be
brought to superpowers?
1424
01:12:51,066 --> 01:12:52,534
First of all, it's
essential for them
1425
01:12:52,534 --> 01:12:54,902
to understand each
other's point of view.
1426
01:12:54,903 --> 01:12:57,573
You are seeing the world there
1427
01:12:57,573 --> 01:13:00,242
from the point of
view of the West.
1428
01:13:00,242 --> 01:13:04,680
I over here from my
surrounded position see it
1429
01:13:04,680 --> 01:13:08,250
from the point of view
of the Soviet Union
1430
01:13:08,250 --> 01:13:11,920
and I seem to sense from
here, from being surrounded,
1431
01:13:11,920 --> 01:13:14,723
I seem to sense your agressions.
1432
01:13:14,723 --> 01:13:18,961
I seem to sense your
paranoia even and your fear.
1433
01:13:18,961 --> 01:13:23,832
Why? Because of your troops and
listening stations in Alaska.
1434
01:13:23,832 --> 01:13:27,669
Throughout the Arctic
Circle, down Europe,
1435
01:13:27,669 --> 01:13:31,673
cross Turkey, Iran,
where a hole was driven
1436
01:13:31,673 --> 01:13:34,376
into the hedge
only the other day
1437
01:13:34,376 --> 01:13:37,312
with characteristic
outcry, Afghanistan,
1438
01:13:37,312 --> 01:13:39,515
where the hole was punctured
in the other direction,
1439
01:13:39,515 --> 01:13:42,050
China with its offer
to the United States
1440
01:13:42,050 --> 01:13:45,487
to compensate for the lost
listening posts in Iran,
1441
01:13:45,487 --> 01:13:47,823
and back to Alaska again.
1442
01:13:47,823 --> 01:13:52,895
And there is nothing in history
to reassure me from here.
1443
01:13:53,495 --> 01:13:56,865
After all, they
remember only too well
1444
01:13:56,865 --> 01:14:00,335
that in 1917 feeble
expeditionary forces
1445
01:14:00,335 --> 01:14:02,604
from the United States,
Britain, and France
1446
01:14:02,604 --> 01:14:07,309
landed in order to attempt to
thwart the 1917 revolution.
1447
01:14:07,309 --> 01:14:09,445
They did nothing
in point of fact
1448
01:14:09,445 --> 01:14:12,214
but give the Red Army
its first battle honors
1449
01:14:12,214 --> 01:14:15,717
and its first experience
against foreign troops.
1450
01:14:15,717 --> 01:14:19,754
You may remember how exercised
the United States was
1451
01:14:19,755 --> 01:14:23,725
when there were Soviet
missiles on Cuba.
1452
01:14:23,725 --> 01:14:26,195
Well, what would be the
position of the United States
1453
01:14:26,195 --> 01:14:28,063
and of the entire
West, I wonder,
1454
01:14:28,063 --> 01:14:31,200
if there were Soviet troops
and listening devices
1455
01:14:31,200 --> 01:14:34,635
all along the Canadian border,
all along the Mexican border,
1456
01:14:34,636 --> 01:14:37,039
and throughout the Caribbean?
1457
01:14:38,574 --> 01:14:41,477
We must remember and
remember solemnly
1458
01:14:41,477 --> 01:14:45,514
that a cornered animal
and a cornered man
1459
01:14:45,514 --> 01:14:47,716
are the least open to appeal.
1460
01:14:47,716 --> 01:14:51,453
There comes a moment when
the terrible lucidity
1461
01:14:51,453 --> 01:14:56,592
of desperation takes over and
then...there is no way back.
1462
01:15:03,765 --> 01:15:07,269
Of course the historians,
or whatever historians
1463
01:15:07,269 --> 01:15:09,471
there are left,
will always find it
1464
01:15:09,471 --> 01:15:11,473
extremely difficult to
decide whether it was
1465
01:15:11,473 --> 01:15:14,109
on the pecan pie or
the blueberry tart
1466
01:15:14,109 --> 01:15:16,845
that the American president
so nearly choked himself
1467
01:15:16,845 --> 01:15:20,249
when he first got the news
of the missile attack.
1468
01:15:20,249 --> 01:15:23,218
And what is perhaps
even more difficult
1469
01:15:23,218 --> 01:15:28,322
to attribute is the blame
for the end of the world
1470
01:15:28,323 --> 01:15:30,025
as we knew it.
1471
01:15:30,025 --> 01:15:33,695
As the president himself said
when he recovered his breath,
1472
01:15:33,695 --> 01:15:37,331
"Maybe we shouldn't
have gone on alert."
1473
01:15:37,332 --> 01:15:40,702
Well, on day one
Washington asked Moscow
1474
01:15:40,702 --> 01:15:44,673
to stop fighting the Chinese
and also asked Peking
1475
01:15:44,673 --> 01:15:46,407
to stop fighting the Russians.
1476
01:15:46,408 --> 01:15:50,479
But on day two, the
Chinese suddenly announced
1477
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:53,015
that the Americans
were now their allies.
1478
01:15:53,015 --> 01:15:56,618
"The path to peace lies
through the tunnel
1479
01:15:56,618 --> 01:16:00,022
of nuclear confrontation,"
they proclaimed.
1480
01:16:01,056 --> 01:16:02,324
The Americans denied this.
1481
01:16:02,324 --> 01:16:05,160
The American president said,
"As far as we're concerned
1482
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:07,729
both sides are Communists."
1483
01:16:08,864 --> 01:16:13,501
On day three the
Russians set in motion
1484
01:16:13,502 --> 01:16:16,638
a huge civil defense exercise.
1485
01:16:17,139 --> 01:16:20,409
"That is scary..." said the
Americans and put their bombers
1486
01:16:20,409 --> 01:16:22,678
on generated alert.
1487
01:16:22,678 --> 01:16:25,681
"The Americans are war
mongering" said the Russians
1488
01:16:25,681 --> 01:16:27,915
and sent their
submarines out to sea.
1489
01:16:27,916 --> 01:16:29,785
In an effort to bring
down the temperature,
1490
01:16:29,785 --> 01:16:33,622
the American president
left his command center
1491
01:16:33,622 --> 01:16:36,959
and ostentatiously
undertook all sorts
1492
01:16:36,959 --> 01:16:39,962
of civilian duties
and ended the day
1493
01:16:39,962 --> 01:16:43,899
with a civilian supper
which was interrupted.
1494
01:16:44,633 --> 01:16:47,501
"I want an immediate
decision to execute,"
1495
01:16:47,502 --> 01:16:50,639
said the secretary of defense.
1496
01:16:50,639 --> 01:16:51,873
"To execute?"
1497
01:16:51,873 --> 01:16:53,909
"He has to shoot, to
launch, to get the missiles
1498
01:16:53,909 --> 01:16:56,712
off the ground where
they can't be dug out."
1499
01:16:56,712 --> 01:17:00,082
"Those aren't cans of caviar
they're sending over, sir.
1500
01:17:00,082 --> 01:17:04,386
NORAD predicts 2,000
warheads aimed specifically
1501
01:17:04,386 --> 01:17:07,556
at our nuclear bases,
at our missile bases
1502
01:17:07,556 --> 01:17:09,924
and our bomber bases.
1503
01:17:09,925 --> 01:17:12,961
The general stakes
his life on that data."
1504
01:17:12,961 --> 01:17:14,930
"Well I...it wasn't
the general's life
1505
01:17:14,930 --> 01:17:16,698
I was thinking
about specifically,"
1506
01:17:16,698 --> 01:17:22,304
said the president, "Although
I gotta believe him."
1507
01:17:22,304 --> 01:17:26,441
"Can we just hit
their missiles?"
1508
01:17:26,441 --> 01:17:29,211
"You'd just be wasting
your force on empty silos."
1509
01:17:29,211 --> 01:17:32,180
"That's what we can do
to him if we hurry."
1510
01:17:32,180 --> 01:17:34,216
The secretary of state spoke up.
1511
01:17:34,216 --> 01:17:36,218
"If you should choose
to do nothing, sir,
1512
01:17:36,218 --> 01:17:38,420
"you'd certainly
have my support.
1513
01:17:38,420 --> 01:17:41,189
I realize that millions
of us are going to be killed,
1514
01:17:41,189 --> 01:17:45,027
but if we retaliate, why,
that's the end of everything."
1515
01:17:45,027 --> 01:17:47,329
"No!" said the
secretary of defense.
1516
01:17:47,329 --> 01:17:49,965
"He's gambling on
our holding back."
1517
01:17:49,965 --> 01:17:53,035
Well, if the president was
listening to these arguments,
1518
01:17:53,035 --> 01:17:55,237
he showed no sign of it.
1519
01:17:56,538 --> 01:18:00,241
"We hit their silos
and they hit our...
1520
01:18:01,176 --> 01:18:04,513
ah, no, they hit our
silos, we hit their cities,
1521
01:18:04,513 --> 01:18:07,582
and they hit our cities...
1522
01:18:08,650 --> 01:18:13,021
I guess the bullet's
left the rifle, huh?"
1523
01:18:13,021 --> 01:18:15,891
"Now, all you have to
say is Tripoli, sir,"
1524
01:18:15,891 --> 01:18:17,793
said the defense secretary.
1525
01:18:19,461 --> 01:18:20,529
"Yeah...
1526
01:18:21,997 --> 01:18:23,131
Tripoli."
1527
01:18:23,131 --> 01:18:26,368
"Execute, you have the word
of the commander in chief."
1528
01:18:26,368 --> 01:18:28,103
"Do the people know
what's happening?"
1529
01:18:28,103 --> 01:18:31,206
said the president as he
was hurried to safety.
1530
01:18:31,206 --> 01:18:36,511
"Oh yes, sir, they're getting
it all on television."
1531
01:18:38,780 --> 01:18:42,050
- [Narrator] One, go to
a public fallout shelter.
1532
01:18:42,050 --> 01:18:44,386
Know where the nearest one is
1533
01:18:44,386 --> 01:18:47,923
to your office, your home,
your children's school.
1534
01:18:48,490 --> 01:18:50,659
(ominous tone)
1535
01:18:50,659 --> 01:18:53,094
If you decided to
take shelter at home,
1536
01:18:53,095 --> 01:18:56,798
know how to improvise and
improve your protection there.
1537
01:18:59,201 --> 01:19:02,104
(water jet gushing)
1538
01:19:02,104 --> 01:19:05,073
- Everybody wants to
avoid the big war,
1539
01:19:05,073 --> 01:19:07,843
of course they do, but how?
1540
01:19:07,843 --> 01:19:10,178
For as long as
anyone can remember,
1541
01:19:10,178 --> 01:19:13,215
Switzerland here has been
the main talking shop
1542
01:19:13,215 --> 01:19:16,184
for peace and disarmament.
1543
01:19:16,184 --> 01:19:19,154
And here in Geneva at the
Palace of the Nations,
1544
01:19:19,154 --> 01:19:22,791
the negotiators now talk
of nuclear submarines
1545
01:19:22,791 --> 01:19:25,494
and napalm where
they once talked
1546
01:19:25,494 --> 01:19:28,295
of battleships and bayonets.
1547
01:19:28,897 --> 01:19:33,602
And in their embassies,
in their villas,
1548
01:19:33,602 --> 01:19:38,440
in their hotels, the
negotiators struggle through
1549
01:19:38,440 --> 01:19:44,446
glaciers of talk and
mountain ranges of paper
1550
01:19:44,446 --> 01:19:46,414
with exemplary patience.
1551
01:19:46,414 --> 01:19:47,715
What drives them on?
1552
01:19:47,716 --> 01:19:50,485
It is the hope
that among all this
1553
01:19:50,485 --> 01:19:55,223
there may be the magic
words, the magic few pages
1554
01:19:55,223 --> 01:19:58,059
which will save
millions of lives.
1555
01:19:59,194 --> 01:20:01,797
I wish I could report
that our Swiss hosts
1556
01:20:01,797 --> 01:20:04,866
have the greatest confidence
in these negotiations,
1557
01:20:04,866 --> 01:20:08,637
but they are by nature
a cautious people
1558
01:20:08,637 --> 01:20:13,775
and they have hedged their
bets in quite an expensive way.
1559
01:20:13,775 --> 01:20:16,344
Like the Chinese who
have covered their land
1560
01:20:16,344 --> 01:20:19,714
with a rabbit warren
of protective tunnels,
1561
01:20:19,714 --> 01:20:22,784
the Swiss are resolved
that they will survive
1562
01:20:22,784 --> 01:20:28,790
any nuclear holocaust which
happens to drift this way.
1563
01:20:28,790 --> 01:20:32,627
(water gushing)
1564
01:20:32,627 --> 01:20:35,497
Switzerland, owing to
her special status,
1565
01:20:35,497 --> 01:20:38,400
is hardly likely to be the
object of direct attack
1566
01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:42,269
from any quarter, but
whereas bombs may recognize
1567
01:20:42,270 --> 01:20:45,841
neutrality, fallout
has no such scruples.
1568
01:20:48,176 --> 01:20:53,215
(wind blowing &
indistinct noises)
1569
01:20:53,215 --> 01:20:54,749
Every man not
assigned to the army
1570
01:20:54,749 --> 01:20:58,253
is forced to serve in
Switzerland's civil defense
1571
01:20:58,253 --> 01:21:02,257
and the men in the very
sinister suits behind me,
1572
01:21:02,257 --> 01:21:04,392
well they could be
engineers, factory workers,
1573
01:21:04,392 --> 01:21:09,898
or clerks practicing here in
Geneva's civil defense school.
1574
01:21:10,732 --> 01:21:13,501
By law every new house
built in Switzerland
1575
01:21:13,501 --> 01:21:18,940
has to have, purpose built
in the very foundations,
1576
01:21:18,940 --> 01:21:22,177
a shelter as a protection
against nuclear war,
1577
01:21:22,177 --> 01:21:24,746
but...be warned.
1578
01:21:24,746 --> 01:21:27,382
This nation of fine
hotels and boarding houses
1579
01:21:27,382 --> 01:21:30,317
makes no special provision
for foreign tourists,
1580
01:21:30,318 --> 01:21:33,788
nor indeed for the foreign
negotiators in Geneva,
1581
01:21:33,788 --> 01:21:36,124
should their missions fail.
1582
01:21:36,124 --> 01:21:41,196
(shovels scraping)
1583
01:21:46,368 --> 01:21:49,337
The local government has a
larger and stronger shelter
1584
01:21:49,337 --> 01:21:52,407
from which it would continue
to administer the canton
1585
01:21:52,407 --> 01:21:56,845
in the event of...
fallout drifting across
1586
01:21:56,845 --> 01:21:58,980
from France, Germany, or Italy,
1587
01:21:58,980 --> 01:22:04,753
or a few misguided missiles
actually falling on Swiss soil.
1588
01:22:04,753 --> 01:22:08,089
Oh yes, I always suspected
that the last survivor
1589
01:22:08,089 --> 01:22:10,125
would be a bureaucrat.
1590
01:22:10,125 --> 01:22:13,128
But actually, the
Swiss are more active
1591
01:22:13,128 --> 01:22:15,996
and more determined
in civil defense
1592
01:22:15,997 --> 01:22:19,434
than any of the
countries engaged
1593
01:22:19,434 --> 01:22:24,239
in the nuclear confrontation
whose populations
1594
01:22:24,239 --> 01:22:27,275
are asked to trust
the nuclear strategy
1595
01:22:27,275 --> 01:22:30,844
of their governments,
enshrined, of course,
1596
01:22:30,845 --> 01:22:33,648
in the principle of deterrence.
1597
01:22:34,950 --> 01:22:38,153
- Deterrence has worked
so far because of the fact
1598
01:22:38,153 --> 01:22:41,256
that no aggressor
could contemplate
1599
01:22:41,256 --> 01:22:45,160
starting a nuclear war
and gaining any advantage.
1600
01:22:45,160 --> 01:22:47,162
Any aggressor would
be faced with the fact
1601
01:22:47,162 --> 01:22:49,097
that for him to start
a nuclear exchange
1602
01:22:49,097 --> 01:22:51,465
would mean national suicide.
1603
01:22:52,067 --> 01:22:55,603
It's also worked because
both sides recognize
1604
01:22:55,603 --> 01:22:58,406
that they have the
retaliatory forces
1605
01:22:58,406 --> 01:23:01,009
that provide that
deterrent and, therefore,
1606
01:23:01,009 --> 01:23:04,512
they don't have to start
an exchange out of fear...
1607
01:23:04,512 --> 01:23:07,315
out of fear that their
deterrent would be destroyed.
1608
01:23:07,315 --> 01:23:10,485
Now as long as those
factors continue to exist,
1609
01:23:10,485 --> 01:23:13,221
deterrence will
continue to exist,
1610
01:23:13,221 --> 01:23:14,955
and that, of course,
is one of the purposes
1611
01:23:14,956 --> 01:23:17,792
of arms control, to
preserve that situation
1612
01:23:17,792 --> 01:23:19,794
of strategic stability.
1613
01:23:20,595 --> 01:23:22,697
- We have, most of
the time since the end
1614
01:23:22,697 --> 01:23:25,867
of World War II, have
had nuclear superiority,
1615
01:23:25,867 --> 01:23:28,970
so the Soviet Union
did not dare attack us.
1616
01:23:28,970 --> 01:23:31,172
I think today we have
what we would call
1617
01:23:31,172 --> 01:23:33,407
rough equivalence or parity.
1618
01:23:33,408 --> 01:23:35,844
The Soviet Union
would not attack,
1619
01:23:35,844 --> 01:23:38,079
but if we allow them
through treaties
1620
01:23:38,079 --> 01:23:40,415
or through our own
decisions of cutting back
1621
01:23:40,415 --> 01:23:44,652
our forces unilaterally, to
achieve nuclear superiority
1622
01:23:44,652 --> 01:23:46,354
then deterrence will break down
1623
01:23:46,354 --> 01:23:48,456
and there is the
possibility of an attack
1624
01:23:48,456 --> 01:23:50,091
by the Soviet Union.
1625
01:23:50,959 --> 01:23:53,528
- In the next five years
1626
01:23:53,528 --> 01:23:56,631
I think it's possible to
state almost statistically
1627
01:23:56,631 --> 01:24:00,201
that a risk of nuclear
war is quite considerable,
1628
01:24:00,201 --> 01:24:03,104
precisely because of
the imbalance in forces
1629
01:24:03,104 --> 01:24:05,907
and the different
perceptions of both sides.
1630
01:24:05,907 --> 01:24:08,176
If we can get
through to the 1990s
1631
01:24:08,176 --> 01:24:10,512
then I think the
danger would recede.
1632
01:24:10,512 --> 01:24:12,647
- I believe that the incentive
1633
01:24:12,647 --> 01:24:14,482
for all nuclear weapon states,
1634
01:24:14,482 --> 01:24:19,954
in particular...the
two major powers...
1635
01:24:19,954 --> 01:24:22,690
to find a way of regulating
their competition
1636
01:24:22,690 --> 01:24:24,125
in the nuclear
field, that incentive
1637
01:24:24,125 --> 01:24:27,228
remains very powerful.
I would expect that
1638
01:24:27,228 --> 01:24:28,930
in the messy world
of the future,
1639
01:24:28,930 --> 01:24:31,933
with possibly other nuclear
weapons states around,
1640
01:24:31,933 --> 01:24:34,402
that incentive will
grow even further.
1641
01:24:35,036 --> 01:24:38,673
And so, the two major
countries responsible
1642
01:24:38,673 --> 01:24:43,344
for the maintenance of
deterrence...will, I think...
1643
01:24:43,344 --> 01:24:47,649
find it almost inevitable
that they should sit down,
1644
01:24:47,649 --> 01:24:50,585
they should try in
dialogue and in agreements
1645
01:24:50,585 --> 01:24:52,787
to regulate this relationship.
1646
01:24:52,787 --> 01:24:56,257
- Perhaps every 5 or 10
years it should be required
1647
01:24:56,257 --> 01:25:01,562
that all world leaders
attend a multi-megaton blast
1648
01:25:01,563 --> 01:25:03,064
in the atmosphere.
1649
01:25:04,099 --> 01:25:06,000
I think if they
were to, let's say,
1650
01:25:06,000 --> 01:25:08,736
strip down to their
skivvies to feel the heat
1651
01:25:08,736 --> 01:25:12,140
at a distance of
some 20 or 30 miles...
1652
01:25:12,140 --> 01:25:14,209
they would appreciate
a little better
1653
01:25:14,209 --> 01:25:17,010
the enormity of the
power which they have
1654
01:25:17,011 --> 01:25:19,714
at their disposal
and I think that once
1655
01:25:19,714 --> 01:25:22,584
they realize this and
continue to realize it
1656
01:25:22,584 --> 01:25:25,420
the way I think our
present world leaders do,
1657
01:25:25,420 --> 01:25:28,089
then I think we can
count on the deterrence
1658
01:25:28,089 --> 01:25:30,024
for a very long time.
1659
01:25:30,758 --> 01:25:35,396
- People talk about disarming,
destroying nuclear weapons.
1660
01:25:35,396 --> 01:25:38,566
I think that is not
the way to do it.
1661
01:25:38,566 --> 01:25:41,536
I think there will
be too much suspicion
1662
01:25:41,536 --> 01:25:43,238
that the other guy will hide
1663
01:25:43,238 --> 01:25:48,209
some missiles, hide some
bombs, and thereby acquire...
1664
01:25:50,211 --> 01:25:53,781
supremacy of some
kind when you disarm.
1665
01:25:53,781 --> 01:25:58,052
So my belief is let's stop
the technological arms race.
1666
01:25:58,052 --> 01:26:00,655
Let's not make any new weapons.
1667
01:26:00,655 --> 01:26:03,391
Let's leave what we have alone
1668
01:26:03,391 --> 01:26:07,195
and gradually even
stoop proof testing it,
1669
01:26:07,195 --> 01:26:09,797
so those missiles
will rot or corrode
1670
01:26:09,797 --> 01:26:13,233
or whatever will you
have it in the silos
1671
01:26:13,234 --> 01:26:16,271
and the submarines will
become less and less safe
1672
01:26:16,271 --> 01:26:19,072
to dive under the sea.
1673
01:26:19,073 --> 01:26:23,511
And that kind of a
obsolescence...
1674
01:26:24,179 --> 01:26:28,249
will make it less
and less tempting...
1675
01:26:28,249 --> 01:26:32,286
to use or even to
threaten to use
1676
01:26:32,287 --> 01:26:37,525
these arsenals in time
of political crisis.
1677
01:26:38,259 --> 01:26:41,062
- [Ustinov] May the missiles
then pass uneventfully
1678
01:26:41,062 --> 01:26:44,232
from decrepit silos
in distant fields
1679
01:26:44,232 --> 01:26:47,969
to decent exposure
in famous museums.
1680
01:26:49,070 --> 01:26:52,173
And here in future times
the visitor will, perhaps,
1681
01:26:52,173 --> 01:26:55,476
pause to wonder at
our unromantic age
1682
01:26:55,476 --> 01:26:58,246
when great nations spoke
plainly to one another
1683
01:26:58,246 --> 01:27:02,217
only in the language of
mutual extermination.
1684
01:27:03,484 --> 01:27:06,387
But it's for the sake
of those new generations
1685
01:27:06,387 --> 01:27:09,257
that I trust we'll
allow no other fears
1686
01:27:09,257 --> 01:27:12,460
ever to surpass our
fear of nuclear war,
1687
01:27:12,460 --> 01:27:15,997
and think no effort of mind
and heart too troublesome
1688
01:27:15,997 --> 01:27:19,300
or too risky if
the alternative is
1689
01:27:19,300 --> 01:27:22,670
that our nuclear
nightmares come to pass.
1690
01:27:22,670 --> 01:28:00,041
(indistinct chatter)
133817